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    An Empirical Analysis of Financial Inclusion Across Population Groups in India 97

    An Empirical Analysis

    of Financial Inclusion Across

    Population Groups in IndiaNitin Kumar*

    * Research Officer, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, India. E-mail: [email protected]. The usual disclaimerapplies.

    2012 IUP. All Rights Reserved.

    The financial inclusion mission has gained tremendous relevance in an emerging economy

    like India. Financial exclusion seems to be more severe in rural and backward locations.

    In this respect, the current analysis is an attempt to explore the behavior of inclusion/

    exclusion across varied population groups. The pooled dataset spanning over the period

    from 1990 to 2008 for rural and urban regions separate ly has been employed.

    A set of control variables have been included to disentangle the role of various demographic

    and institutional factors. Bank group size, as captured by assets, has a direct influence

    on the number of operating branches. Ownership effect also plays a key role in determining

    the number of branches operating. Test of convergence has been carried out to examine

    if lesser branched regions are catching up with their counterparts with higher branch

    network. Evidence of conditional convergence has been found. Finally, structural change

    has also been observed in terms of the number of functioning branches. The result is a

    testimony to the fact that inclusion policies are actually translating into significant

    improvement of branch density in India.

    IntroductionThe importance of efficient financial institutions is well established in the literature (King and

    Ross, 1993; Beck et al., 2000 and 2004; and Klapper et al., 2006). A well-organized financial

    system is the key towards growth, progress and various expansionary activities, more so in the

    case of emerging markets. However, the potential benefit cannot be harnessed till the societies

    are well connected with the formal system, especially the rural poor and deprived masses.

    Globally, the financial inclusion drive has gained momentum lately. This is reflected in the

    various number of projects, reports, and research being conducted by the international

    organizations such as the World Bank and IMF (Becket al., 2007; World Bank, 2008a and

    2008b; and World Bank, 2009) at a cross-country level. In fact, regular reports with a focus on

    the South Asian nations are being published by the World Bank (Kiatchai and Kulathunga,

    2009). The report contains in detail the various indicators, relevant information pertaining tofinancial inclusion and comparative analysis on the basis of various parameters for the South

    Asian countries. Financial access surveys are also being conducted by the CGAP and World

    Bank (2010). Building on the existing database, Financial Access 2010 reviews the survey

    responses from 142 economies, updates statistics on the use of financial services, and analyzes

    changes that took place in 2009a turbulent year for the financial sector in most economies.

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    The IUP Journal of Bank Management, Vol. XI, No. 1, 201298

    In addition, Financial Access 2010 expands on the previous years work by reviewing three

    policy areas relevant to the current financial access debate: financial inclusion mandates,

    consumer protection in financial services, and access to finance by Small and Medium Enterprises

    (SMEs). Nearly 60% of the economies experienced a contraction in real per capita income in

    2009 due to deepening of the global financial crisis.

    In India too, financial inclusion efforts have gained reasonable prominence. The Report of

    the Committee on Financial Inclusion (Rangarajan Committee, 2008) has not only recognized

    the importance of access of finance to the poor and vulnerable groups as a prerequisite for

    poverty reduction and social cohesion, but also provided policy suggestions for the improvement

    of the same. It defined inclusion in the Indian context and discussed key statistics in this

    background. The Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-12) envisions inclusive growth as the key

    objective. The inclusive growth implies an equitable allocation of resources with benefits accruing

    to every section of the society. It is aimed at poverty reduction, human development, healthand provides opportunity to work and be creative. Also, various initiatives have been undertaken

    by the Reserve Bank of India towards fulfilling the objectives of the financial inclusion agenda

    (Leeladhar, 2006; Mohan, 2006; Thorat, 2007; and Subbarao, 2009a and 2009b). Prominent

    among them are the relaxation of branch licensing policy in rural agglomerations; availability

    of no-frills accounts for poor and underprivileged; and easing the Know Your Customer (KYC)

    norms to keep the procedural hassles involved in opening a bank account to the minimum.

    In the Indian economy, still around 70% of the population dwells in rural regions with

    agriculture and other small-scale entrepreneurship as their main pursuit. Although there exists

    supply side deficiency, weak demand may also be a reason for low banking penetration in such

    cases (Rangarajan Committee, 2008; Goyal, 2010; and Kamath et al., 2010). As per the

    Rangarajan Committee Report (2008), marginal farmer households constitute 66% of the total

    farm households. Only 45% of these households are indebted to either formal or non-formal

    sources of finance. Overall, 73% of farmer households have no access to formal sources of

    credit. Indian household financial savings in shares and debentures prior to reforms were above

    20%, but post-reform it reached a low of below 5%. Technology, actually, raised entry costs,

    for example, depository charges. Mutual funds through which retail investors were supposed to

    enter are more interested in servicing corporates and a few high net worth individuals through

    high-cost structured products. The sub-brokers that households trusted disappeared from the

    markets (Goyal, 2010).

    In this context, it is useful to examine if there really exists a significant difference between

    the branches operated in rural and urban agglomerations. To this end, the present analysis isan attempt to explore how the relationship between the operating branches varies according to

    population categories, bank groups and income. The pooled dataset has been employed to test

    the hypothesis spanning over the period from 1990 to 2008 for rural and urban regions separately.

    The regression has been carried out utilizing both the number of branches opened and functioning

    branches as dependent variables. Certain interesting findings include: the quantum of operating

    branches in more populous regions is lesser after controlling other banking and demographic

    factors; both time and income level are turning out to be insignificant in the determination of

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    An Empirical Analysis of Financial Inclusion Across Population Groups in India 99

    operating branches; bank group size, as captured by assets, has a direct influence on the

    number of operating branches; and last but not the least, ownership effect plays a significant

    role in determining the number of operating branches. The test of convergence has been carried

    out to examine the trend of the functioning branches across the urban and rural population

    groups over time. A negative and significant coefficient of initial branches is an evidence of

    conditional convergence. The real expenditure has a direct and significant effect on the growth

    rate of functioning branches. The result implies that higher income regions are experiencing a

    higher branch growth. Finally, it is imperative to test if the number of branches has encountered

    any marked shift from its mean level. The three series tested for structural change are: functioning

    branches for rural and urban sectors, and total functioning branches. Each one of the series

    indicates the presence of structural shift in the number of functioning branches, which may be

    due to the impact of policy changes towards financial inclusion.

    The present study is structured as follows: the next section is devoted to a brief discussionon the literature pertaining to financial inclusion, followed by an outline of the data chosen and

    variables utilized. The empirical methodology is described in the next section, with results in the

    subsequent section. The last section concludes with a summary of the major findings and

    policy implications.

    Inclusion Developments and Relevant Literature

    Financial inclusion has become the buzzword in last few years. Apex organizations, including

    World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), G-20 nations and others, have undertaken

    financial inclusion as the key agenda item. Updated online database of financial access has

    been launched by World Bank and IMF. This resource is an important tool for increasing

    financial inclusion. With such international data comparisons, policy makers and researcherscan set forth agendas for improving access to financial services. Policy makers can use the data

    for monitoring and evaluation of pro-access policies. Researchers will use it to assess varying

    policy approaches to learn what works. In fact, the steps have resulted in improved responses

    with more comprehensive coverage over time (Errico and Musalem, 1999; and IMF, 2009).

    An estimated 2.7 billion people in developing countries do not have access to basic formal

    financial services (CGAP and World Bank, 2010). However, financial inclusion has been in

    existence in a disguised form without the same nomenclature in the Indian economy (Subbarao,

    2009a). The Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-12) envisions inclusive growth as a key objective.

    The inclusive growth implies an equitable allocation of resources, with benefits accruing to

    every section of the society.

    It is surprising to note that financial exclusion is a matter of concern in the developedeconomies also. For instance, Sinclair et al. (2009) documents that the number of households

    without bank accounts in the UK has fallen in recent years, but access to banking services

    remains a problem for a significant proportion of lower-income households and those living in

    deprived locations. In 2001, 9.1% of American households were without transaction accounts,

    a drop of only half a percent since the data was collected in 1998 (Aizcorbe et al., 2003). Of

    the families in the lowest income quintile in 2001, only 62.5% had a transaction account

    (Federal Reserve, 2001).

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    The IUP Journal of Bank Management, Vol. XI, No. 1, 2012100

    To measure financial inclusion, a multidimensional Index of Financial Inclusion (IFI) has

    been proposed by Sarma (2008). The IFI is an index that captures information on various

    dimensions of financial inclusion in one single digit lying between 0 and 1. It captures the

    penetration of the banking system, its availability to users and its actual usage. Chakravarty

    and Pal (2010) employ the axiomatic measurement approach for the measurement of financial

    inclusion. It improves upon the IFI proposed by Sarma (2008) such that the index can be

    utilized to determine the percentage contributions by the various factors. Kendall et al.(2010)

    carried out a cross-country analysis. In developed countries, they estimate 3.2 accounts per

    adult and 81% of adults banked. By contrast, in developing countries, they estimate only 0.9

    accounts per adult and 28% banked. In regression analysis, they find that measures of

    development and physical infrastructure are positively associated with the indicators of deposit

    account, loan, and branch penetration. A state-wise dynamic panel data analysis of determinants

    of financial inclusion has been performed by Kumar (2011) in the context of India. The results

    disclose income to be having an unambiguously beneficial impact on the financial inclusion

    indicators. The findings reveal the importance of the regions socioeconomic and environmental

    setup in shaping the banking habit among the masses.

    Data Strategy

    This section provides in detail the discussion on the data utilized for the study. As the focus of

    the analysis is to examine the banking outreach in rural vis--vis urban agglomerations, an

    attempt has been made to collate variables depicting the characteristics of these two distinct

    population groups. The study spans over the period from 1990 to 2008. The pooled dataset

    consists of various variables for rural and urban regions separately. Among the most prominent

    variables pertaining to banking outreach are the branches opened and branches functioning ina region. The branches opened depict the aggressiveness with which the bank is moving towards

    greater penetration. The factors for greater aggressiveness can be attributed to various demand

    and supply factors, such as relaxation of branch authorization by RBI and greater demand for

    banking services.

    The functioning branches are the net of branches opened and branches closed, which

    portrays the actual number of operating branches at a particular instance. The information on

    both these variables is obtained from theBranch Banking Statistics published by the Reserve

    Bank of India.

    Among the socio-demographic factors, population is a vital variable which directly affects

    the demand for banking services. A large population is expected to exhibit greater banking

    requirements compared to sparsely populated segmentsper se. The rural and urban population

    figures are available only for the census years. To overcome this limitation, population distribution

    ratio as available for the census years 1991 and 2001 has been employed to interpolate the

    rural and urban population distribution for the study period.

    The income level has been established as a significant determinant of the inclusion

    effort (Devlin, 2005; and Kumar, 2011). Although state-wise Net State Domestic Product

    (NSDP) per capita is available, population group-wise NSDP per capita is not available.

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    An Empirical Analysis of Financial Inclusion Across Population Groups in India 101

    The Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) survey was conducted by National Sample Survey

    Organization (NSSO) that is the closest available proxy for income levels of rural and urbaninhabitants. The National Sample Surveys in India are integrated household surveys carried

    out every year on an all-India basis with the exception of some border areas. The MPCE is

    defined as the household consumption expenditure over a period of 30 days divided by the

    household size. The reports present national and state level estimates of various socioeconomic

    indicators and distribution of households and persons over different socioeconomic categories

    in both rural and urban areas.

    To control for the size of varied bank groups, their assets have been included. The information

    on bank group-wise assets is obtained from Statistical Tables Relating to Banks in Indiapublished

    by Reserve Bank of India. All the major bank groups active in the Indian scenario have been

    included in the study, viz., State Bank and its associates (SBI), Nationalized Bank Group,

    foreign banks and private banks.

    Empirical Methodology

    This section describes in detail the econometric methods employed to assess the rural-urban

    financial inclusion disparity. Initially, a simple ordinary least squares framework was utilized

    over the study period of 1990 to 2008 in an attempt to understand the determinants of branch

    expansion. The basic regression takes the following form:

    Y= + X+ Z+ ...(1)

    Here, Yrepresents the vector of endogenous variable; the associated parameters of the

    exogenous variables are represented by ;Xdepicts the matrix of explanatory variables;Zstands for the matrix of control variables to disentangle their effects; and being the vector of

    stochastic term having standard distribution assumptions. The branches opened and number

    of functioning branches constitute the endogenous variable. Separate regressions have been

    carried out for each of them with a common set of independent variables. Among the exogenous

    variables are: time trend, monthly per capita expenditure, population and fixed assets. Population

    dummies and bank group dummies have been taken as the control variables to control for the

    population group effect and bank group effect, respectively.

    Although, urban regions may be enjoying a higher branch density compared to rural sections,

    over the years, the growth of branches opened in rural areas is catching up with the urban

    areas. The notion of convergence (also referred to as the catch-up effect) has been widely usedin economic growth literature (Barro et al., 1992; Mankiw et al., 1992; and Evans and Karras,

    1996). Similar analogy has been implemented to test the convergence in the growth of branches

    over time across the population segments.

    To test if there exists any evidence of convergence of branches in low network areas vis--vis

    high density agglomerations, the following regression setup has been utilized:

    BRAN_GR= + *BRAN_INI + Z+ ...(2)

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    The IUP Journal of Bank Management, Vol. XI, No. 1, 2012102

    BRAN_GRdenotes the compounded growth rate of branches compared to the branches in

    the initial year, which is represented byBRAN_INI.Zsignifies the matrix of control variables

    such as time trend, population and income.

    The previous couple of years have seen numerous steps being undertaken towards greater

    financial inclusion. Not only has the state given financial inclusion high importance, but it has

    also been undertaken in a mission mode by the Reserve Bank of India (Leeladhar, 2006;

    Mohan, 2006; Thorat, 2007; Rangarajan Committee, 2008; and Subbarao, 2009a and 2009b).

    Numerous outreach programs to enhance the financial awareness, relaxation of branch expansion

    regulations in rural inhabitations, introduction of no-frills accounts for low income individuals,

    and easing of the KYC norms to keep the procedural hassles involved in opening a bank

    account to the minimum are some of the chief measures that have been initiated towards this

    goal. In this context, it becomes vital to examine the stability of the estimated parameters over

    the time period of the study. A structural break can render the estimated coefficients misleadingin the presence of shift. The Chow test (Chow, 1960) is most commonly used in time series

    analysis to detect structural break. However, a weakness of the test is that the breakpoint has

    to be supplied exogenously. As various steps towards financial inclusion are spread over the

    years and their relative significance in quantitative measures is also not known, a Bai-Perron

    test of structural change is applied (Bai and Perron, 2003). The test addresses the problem of

    estimation of the break dates and presents an efficient algorithm to obtain global minimizers of

    the sum of squared residuals. The algorithm is based on the principle of dynamic programming.

    To investigate the stability of the parameters, the following null is tested

    H0:

    i=

    0...(3)

    against the alternative that at least one coefficient varies over time. A sequence ofF-statistics

    is computed as follows:

    kniuiu

    iuiuuuF

    T

    TT

    i2/

    ...(4)

    Here iu denotes the residuals obtained from the segmented regression, whereas residualsobtained from unsegmented regression are depicted by u . TheF-statistics are then computed,

    andH0is rejected if the value is too large. Hansen (1997) has developed an algorithm for

    computing approximate asymptoticp-values of the test above. Bai and Perron (2003) extend

    this approach toF-tests for 0 vs. lbreaks and lvs. l+ 1 breaks, respectively, with arbitrary but

    fixed l.

    Empirical Findings

    Table 1 provides the trend of major variables over the selected years. As observed, the number

    of branches opened seems to be accelerating lately with nearly 4,000 branches being added to

    the already growing family of Scheduled Commercial Banks. There has been consistent and

    continuous improvement in the number of functioning branches, which implies an enhancement

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    An Empirical Analysis of Financial Inclusion Across Population Groups in India 103

    of the web of branches over time despite closures. The real MPCE has increased for most of the

    years. It reflects the higher spending power of the masses for both rural and urban zones

    separately. Last but not the least, the swelling population figures are also tabulated, whose

    coverage is a challenge for financial inclusion strategies.

    Table 1: Totals of Variables for Selected Years

    Year Branches Branches MPCE MPCE Population

    Opened Functioning Rural Urban (million)

    1990 2,429 61,082 531.28 835.65 862.2

    1994 715 62,495 523.73 852.40 935.0

    1998 872 65,006 516.43 924.70 1,007.0

    2002 620 66,554 602.09 1,146.39 1,078.1

    2006 1,455 70,262 596.86 1,118.28 1,147.8

    2008 3,997 76,611 661.92 1,262.10 1,181.4

    Note: All monetary variables have been normalized by GDP deflator; and the banks consist ofScheduled Commercial Banks in India.

    To understand the rural-urban disparity in terms of financial inclusion status, it is pertinent

    to have a glance of the branch density across these two population groups. The Average

    Population Per Branch (APPB) is presented in Table 2. The figures indicate that the density had

    deteriorated over the years. However, since 2004, the ratio has improved favorably, analogous

    to the popular belief that the urban regions are actually enjoying a better branch densitycompared to the rural areas. In 2008, a single branch catered to about 12,190 individuals in

    urban areas as against 17,250 in rural areas.

    Table 2: Trend of Branch Density Across Rural and Urban Population Groups

    Year APPB Rural APPB Urban APPB Total

    1990 14.47 13.17 14.11

    1991 14.59 13.54 14.31

    1992 14.81 13.76 14.52

    1993 14.98 13.85 14.67

    1994 15.25 14.21 14.96

    1995 15.47 14.32 15.14

    1996 15.65 14.28 15.25

    1997 15.86 14.25 15.39

    1998 16.06 14.15 15.49

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    The IUP Journal of Bank Management, Vol. XI, No. 1, 2012104

    Table 2 (Cont.)

    Year APPB Rural APPB Urban APPB Total

    1999 16.27 14.01 15.58

    2000 16.50 14.05 15.75

    2001 16.81 14.26 16.01

    2002 17.05 14.36 16.20

    2003 17.29 14.39 16.36

    2004 17.50 14.26 16.45

    2005 17.65 13.91 16.40

    2006 17.78 13.57 16.34

    2007 17.66 13.01 16.03

    2008 17.25 12.19 15.42

    Note: APPB is in thousands.

    The basic data description according to major bank groups is illustrated in Table 3. The

    Nationalized Bank Group is the frontrunner both in terms of largest number of average

    functioning branches and highest number of average branches opened. The Nationalized Bank

    Group is followed by Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) in respect of average functioning branches

    and private sector banks in terms of average branches opened during the study period. Foreign

    banks constitute the smallest group with average functioning branches of 130 and average

    branches opened at about 7. Nationalized banks have displayed the highest stability as depicted

    by the least coefficient of variation for both the functioning and opened branches. The figures

    for RRBs have been the most volatile, which signifies that although growth of branches has

    taken place, it has been uneven across the banks and over time.

    Mean SD CV Mean SD CV

    SBI and its Associates 6,617.05 2,500.73 37.79 102.16 132.65 129.85

    Nationalized Banks 16,225.79 3,733.33 23.01 272.82 279.22 102.35

    Foreign Banks 129.84 110.79 85.32 5.68 7.73 135.91

    Private Sector Banks 2,780.74 696.90 25.06 147.26 158.91 107.91

    Regional Rural Banks 7,248.13 6,861.93 94.67 39.03 66.45 170.26

    Table 3: Bank Group-Wise Data Description

    Bank Group

    Number of Functioning

    Branches

    Number of Branches

    Opened

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    An Empirical Analysis of Financial Inclusion Across Population Groups in India 105

    The regression result with common set

    of explanatory variables and functioningbranches as the dependent variable is

    presented in Table 4. The dependent

    variable has been normalized relative to

    SBI branches. Likewise, theassetvariable

    has been defined relative to SBI assets.

    Over a period of time, apart from opening

    of new branches, banks perform diverse

    pursuits, such as closures, mergers,

    amalgamations and change of status,

    which not only lead to changes in the

    number of functioning branches but also

    variations in the status with respect to

    ownership and population group

    categorization. With this motivation, it

    becomes useful to assess the determinants

    of functioning branches disentangling the

    operating and demographic factors, which

    may confound the outcome. The time

    trend has an insignificant impact on the

    dependent variable. The finding depicts

    that on controlling for various othercharacteristics, the number of branches

    has not significantly improved over the

    time period of the study. The bank group

    size, as captured by real assets, has a

    positive effect, which implies that larger

    bank groups are aggressive in carrying out

    branch expansionary activities. Among

    the ownership dummies, both foreign and

    private banks seem to possess significantly lesser number of functioning branches as compared

    to the SBI group, whereas the Nationalized Group is owning significantly more number of

    branches vis--vis SBI and associates.

    As discussed in the empirical methodology, it is vital to examine the convergence of the

    functioning branches across the urban and rural population groups over time. The convergence

    results are displayed in Table 5. Model 1 is the benchmark regression excluding the RRBs and

    Model 2 is the consolidated dataset including RRBs. Qualitatively, the outcome of both the

    models is very similar. A negative and significant coefficient of initial branches is an evidence of

    conditional convergence. The real expenditure has a direct and significant effect on the growth

    Dependent variable: Number of functioning branches

    Explanatory Variables Model 1

    Intercept 133.8

    (158.81)

    Time 0.82

    (2.6)

    MPCE 0.01

    (0.05)

    Population 0.12

    (0.22)

    Assets 0.29*

    (0.11)

    Pop_gr_dum 29.29

    (85.98)

    Nationalized_dum 139.68*

    (8.63)

    Foreign_dum 75.57*

    (8.62)

    Private_dum 36.05*

    (6.97)

    R-square 0.96

    Table 4: Regression Result

    (Functioning Branches)

    Note: Period of the study: 1990 to 2008; Figures in bracketdenote the robust standard errors; * Significantat 1%.

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    Dependent variable: Growth rate of functioning branches

    Explanatory Variables Model 1 Model 2

    Intercept 1.7 2.4

    (1.7) (1.46)

    Time 0.04 4.45E03

    (0.04) (3.55E02)

    Initial branches 4.10E05* 3.90E05*

    (1.18E05) (1.08E05)

    Population 1.60E04 1.04E03(1.52E03) (1.31E03)

    MPCE 3.09E03*** 4.25E03*

    (1.68E03) (1.42E03)

    R-square 0.53 0.55

    Table 5: Test of Convergence

    Note: Period of the study: 1990 to 2008; Figures in bracket denote the robust standard errors; * Significantat 1%; and *** Significant at 10%.

    rate of the functioning branches. The result implies that higher income regions are experiencing

    a higher branch growth.

    Finally, it is imperative to test if the number of branches has encountered any marked shiftfrom its mean level. It shall help to determine if any policy factor does have a role in strategizing

    the branch expansion plan of the banks, and if so, the lag with which it is implemented. The

    three series tested for structural change are: functioning branches for rural and urban sectors,

    and total functioning branches. To examine if at all there is an indication of breakpoint(s), the

    F-statistics procedure as tabulated in Equation (4) has been employed.1The plot for functioning

    branches in rural areas is displayed in Figure 1. As observed from the graph, the series is

    increasing slightly till around 1996. Thereafter it is stable for a few years, before a sharp

    upward trajectory. The plots for urban and all India total are portrayed in Figures 2 and 3,

    respectively. The figures are quite similar. Both are displaying an increasing trend till 1999, after

    which there is a deceleration. A sharp reversal of curve with declining trend is observed around

    2004 for both the series. On the basis of graphical outcomes, there seems to be a strong case

    for structural break in the number of functioning branches. To empirically test and pinpoint the

    year of shift, the Bai and Perron (2003) methodology has been utilized. The result of the

    breakpoint years is available in Table 6. In addition to the single-segment model, two-segment

    model has also been used primarily due to the double humped figures as obtained for urban

    and total number of functioning branches. The year 2006 turns out to be the structural change

    1 The OLS-based CUSUM procedure has also been used with very similar results.

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    An Empirical Analysis of Financial Inclusion Across Population Groups in India 107

    Figure 2:F-Statistics for Functioning Branches in Urban Region

    25

    20

    15

    5

    1995 2000 2005

    Time

    F-Statistics

    30

    35

    10

    0

    Figure 1:F-Statistics for Functioning Branches in Rural Region

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    1995 2000 2005

    Time

    F-Statistics

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    The IUP Journal of Bank Management, Vol. XI, No. 1, 2012108

    Population Group/Model Single-Segment Model Two-Segment Model

    Rural 2006 1995, 2006

    Urban 2003 1997, 2005

    Total 2004 1997, 2006

    Table 6: Structural Change Breakpoints

    year, assuming a single shift year for rural functioning branches. In the case of urban and total

    number of branches, the break years are 2003 and 2004, respectively, on the basis of single-

    segment model.

    Conclusion

    The financial inclusion agenda has gained tremendous relevance in an emerging economy like

    India. The issue of financial exclusion seems to be more severe for rural and less populous

    regions compared to urban and developed areas. In this respect, the current analysis is an

    attempt to explore the behavior of inclusion/exclusion across the population groups.

    The pooled dataset has been employed to test the hypothesis spanning over the period from

    1990 to 2008 for rural and urban regions separately. A set of control variables have also been

    employed in the regression analysis to understand the role of demographic and institutional

    Figure 3:F-Statistics for Functioning Branches in All India

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    1995 2000 2005

    Time

    F-Statistics

    25

    30

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    An Empirical Analysis of Financial Inclusion Across Population Groups in India 109

    factors. Bank group size, as captured by assets, has a direct influence on the number of

    operating branches. Ownership effect also plays a significant role in the determination of branches

    operating. Both time and income level turn out to be insignificant in the determination of

    operating branches. The test of convergence has been carried out to examine the trend of the

    functioning branches across the urban and rural population groups over time. Evidence of

    conditional convergence has been found, which implies higher growth of branches in regions

    having less density of branches initially. The real expenditure has a direct and significant effect

    on the growth rate of functioning branches. The result implies that higher income regions are

    experiencing a higher branch growth. Finally, test of structural change has been carried out to

    investigate the possible shift of functioning branches over time. Each one of the series (functioning

    branches for rural and urban sectors, and total functioning branches) is indicating the presence

    of structural shift in the number of functioning branches. The finding is an evidence of the

    positive impact of varied inclusion policies that have been implemented lately.

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