An exploratory analysis of An exploratory analysis of climate impacts on climate impacts on
Washington steelhead Washington steelhead productivityproductivity
An exploratory analysis of An exploratory analysis of climate impacts on climate impacts on
Washington steelhead Washington steelhead productivityproductivity
Nate Mantua Nate Mantua
University of Washington University of Washington
Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group
Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Coast Steelhead MeetingCoast Steelhead Meeting
March 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WAMarch 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WA
Nate Mantua Nate Mantua
University of Washington University of Washington
Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group
Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Pacific Coast Steelhead MeetingCoast Steelhead Meeting
March 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WAMarch 7-9, 2006 Fort Worden, WA
Analysis Analysis
Compare steelhead environment Compare steelhead environment for “best” and for “best” and “worst”productivity periods from “worst”productivity periods from select populations select populations
Use daily streamflow, ocean Use daily streamflow, ocean temperatures, and upwelling temperatures, and upwelling indices during key periods of indices during key periods of steelhead lifecyclesteelhead lifecycle
Compare steelhead environment Compare steelhead environment for “best” and for “best” and “worst”productivity periods from “worst”productivity periods from select populations select populations
Use daily streamflow, ocean Use daily streamflow, ocean temperatures, and upwelling temperatures, and upwelling indices during key periods of indices during key periods of steelhead lifecyclesteelhead lifecycle
DataDataDataData
WDFW steelhead data WDFW steelhead data Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S) Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S)
indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by assuming a fixed age-structureassuming a fixed age-structure
Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates (SARs)(SARs)
Environmental dataEnvironmental data Daily streamflow from USGS gagesDaily streamflow from USGS gages Sea surface temperatures: time series Sea surface temperatures: time series
from select locations + maps from ship-from select locations + maps from ship-buoy-satellite databuoy-satellite data
Annual spring transition datesAnnual spring transition dates
WDFW steelhead data WDFW steelhead data Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S) Estimate recruits-per-spawner (R/S)
indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by indices from WDFW run-reconstructions by assuming a fixed age-structureassuming a fixed age-structure
Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates Hatchery smolt-to-adult return rates (SARs)(SARs)
Environmental dataEnvironmental data Daily streamflow from USGS gagesDaily streamflow from USGS gages Sea surface temperatures: time series Sea surface temperatures: time series
from select locations + maps from ship-from select locations + maps from ship-buoy-satellite databuoy-satellite data
Annual spring transition datesAnnual spring transition dates
Populations discussed in Populations discussed in this talkthis talk
Skagit R. wild WSHSkagit R. wild WSH
Chehalis R. WSHChehalis R. WSH(hatchery and wild)(hatchery and wild)
Kalama R. WSHKalama R. WSH(hatchery and wild)(hatchery and wild)
Green R. Green R. hatchery WSHhatchery WSH
Quileute R. Quileute R. wild WSHwild WSH
Wenatchee R. Wenatchee R. Wild SSHWild SSH
Yakima R. Yakima R. Wild SSHWild SSH
Wenatchee R. SSH run-size and
R/S
Wenatchee R. SSH run-size and
R/S The Wenatchee R.
summer steelhead declined dramatically in the 1960s-70s, rebounded in early 1980s, down in the 1990s, and sharply increased in 1999-2001
The Wenatchee R. summer steelhead declined dramatically in the 1960s-70s, rebounded in early 1980s, down in the 1990s, and sharply increased in 1999-2001
Wenatchee R. water year flow anomalies: (1971-2000
averages)
Wenatchee R. water year flow anomalies: (1971-2000
averages)
Sta
nd
ard
ized
an
omal
ies
Population and productivity trends for
Yakima R. are similar to those
for Wenatchee R.
Population and productivity trends for
Yakima R. are similar to those
for Wenatchee R. What’s driving
these fluctuations?
Was it the ocean? Streamflow? Both? Neither?
What’s driving these fluctuations?
Was it the ocean? Streamflow? Both? Neither?
Annual Run-SizesAnnual Run-Sizes
Annual R/S
Age .0 (post-smolt) cpueAge .0 (post-smolt) cpue
(from Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)(from Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)
Nearshore SSTs during Wenatchee summer-run ages 3
and 4
Nearshore SSTs during Wenatchee summer-run ages 3
and 4
There is a weak tendency for 1st spring/summer SSTs to be warm during best S/R years, and cool during the worst S/R years
This is also true in 1st and 2nd winter at sea
There is a weak tendency for 1st spring/summer SSTs to be warm during best S/R years, and cool during the worst S/R years
This is also true in 1st and 2nd winter at sea
Smolt migrationSmolt migration
3rd year3rd year 4th year4th year
Seasonal temperature and all-ages steelhead distribution patterns
(after Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)
Seasonal temperature and all-ages steelhead distribution patterns
(after Burgner et al 1992, INPFC)
April-May-JuneApril-May-June July-August-SeptemberJuly-August-September
October-November-DecemberOctober-November-DecemberJanuary-February-MarchJanuary-February-March
Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S
extremes
Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S
extremes19801980 19811981 19821982 19841984 19981998
19711971 19721972 19871987 19891989 19911991
fall/winter smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S
extremes
fall/winter smolt-year SST and Wenatchee R. SSH R/S
extremes80-8180-81 81-8281-82 82-8382-83 84-8584-85 98-9998-99
71-7271-72 72-7372-73 87-8887-88 89-9089-90 91-9291-92
SW WA SW WA hatchery hatchery
steelhead SARssteelhead SARs
SW WA SW WA hatchery hatchery
steelhead SARssteelhead SARs Kalama and Chehalis
R. hatchery winter-run SARs are similar
warm spring-summer SSTs have no high values
latest spring transition dates have low SAR rates
Kalama and Chehalis R. hatchery winter-run SARs are similar
warm spring-summer SSTs have no high values
latest spring transition dates have low SAR rates
April 1stApril 1st
Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Chehalis hatchery
SAR extremes
Spring/Summer smolt-year SST and Chehalis hatchery
SAR extremes19831983 19841984 20002000 20012001 20022002
19821982 19891989 19931993 19961996 19971997
Green R. Hatchery
SARs
Green R. Hatchery
SARs Green R. hatchery
winter-run SARs show a prolonged downward slide
tendency for the warmest spring-summer SSTs to have only low values
Weak tendency for late spring transition dates to have low values
Green R. hatchery winter-run SARs show a prolonged downward slide
tendency for the warmest spring-summer SSTs to have only low values
Weak tendency for late spring transition dates to have low values
April 1stApril 1st
Quileute R. wild winter-
runs
Quileute R. wild winter-
runs Peak run-sizes from
1995-2001, lows from 1994-2003
R/S highest from 1991-94 during period of relatively low escapements
Peak run-sizes from 1995-2001, lows from 1994-2003
R/S highest from 1991-94 during period of relatively low escapements
Nearshore SSTs during Quileute winter-run ages 3 and 4
There is a weak tendency for 1st spring/summer SSTs to be warm during best S/R years, and cool during the worst S/R years This is also true in 2nd summer at sea
Smolt migrationSmolt migration
3rd year3rd year 4th year4th year
Skagit R. wild winter-
runs
Skagit R. wild winter-
runs Peak run-sizes from
1985-1990, lows from 1978-1981 and 1991-1998
R/S highest from 1978-84 during period of relatively low escapements
Peak run-sizes from 1985-1990, lows from 1978-1981 and 1991-1998
R/S highest from 1978-84 during period of relatively low escapements
Skagit winter-run age 0-2 streamflow and age 2-4 nearshore SSTs
weak tendency for high summer flows in emergence year of high R/S year, and high winter flows for low R/S yearsweak tendency for SSTs to be warm during best S/R years
Smolt migration
1st year1st year 2nd year2nd year
3rd year3rd year 4th year4th year
Preliminary summaryPreliminary summary To date, this exploratory analysis finds no
prominent patterns of environmental links with productivity confounded with density dependence related
to varying escapements?
Weak tendencies for high wild fish productivity (and low hatchery fish SARs) with warm spring-summer SST during smolt migration year
There are many more exploration and analysis opportunities with these data!
To date, this exploratory analysis finds no prominent patterns of environmental links with productivity confounded with density dependence related
to varying escapements?
Weak tendencies for high wild fish productivity (and low hatchery fish SARs) with warm spring-summer SST during smolt migration year
There are many more exploration and analysis opportunities with these data!
acknowledgementsacknowledgements thanks to the many WDFW and Tribal staff
who have conducted spawner surveys over the past 30 years so that this rich run-reconstruction data set exists
Bill Gill from WDFW provided run-reconstruction data sets and advice
Curt Kraemer provided Green River hatchery SARs
Nick Gayeski for providing Skagit R. run-reconstruction data
Funding for this research has been provided by NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program as part of NOAA’s Climate Office
thanks to the many WDFW and Tribal staff who have conducted spawner surveys over the past 30 years so that this rich run-reconstruction data set exists
Bill Gill from WDFW provided run-reconstruction data sets and advice
Curt Kraemer provided Green River hatchery SARs
Nick Gayeski for providing Skagit R. run-reconstruction data
Funding for this research has been provided by NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program as part of NOAA’s Climate Office
Catch per angler day as an index of abundance for BC wild
steelhead
Catch per angler day as an index of abundance for BC wild
steelhead
Smith and Ward, 2000, CJFAS
Queen Charlotte Is.
West Coast VIEast Coast VI
Lower Mainland
• regional patterns suggest common environmental influences• yearly changes in CpAD modestly correlated with yearly changes in coastal upwelling (summer) and downwelling (winter) winds 2 year prior to catch data (typical year of smolt migration) …
Smolt-to-adult (marine) survival: Keough River,
Vancouver Island
Smolt-to-adult (marine) survival: Keough River,
Vancouver Island
Smith and Ward 2000, CJFAS
spring/summer SST during BC’s good 80s and poor 60s-70s
spring/summer SST during BC’s good 80s and poor 60s-70s
Low CpAD era: 1966-79Low CpAD era: 1966-79 High CpAD era: 1981-89High CpAD era: 1981-89
A weak tendency for higher CpAD when spring/summer SSTs near average.