An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships? Dr. Walter Dabberdt...

An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships?

Dr. Walter Dabberdt

Vaisala Chief Science Officer

President, American Meteorological Society

AMS-PPP: April 22, 2008

©Vaisala | 04-22-2008 | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 2

The Quadruple Convergence

Population GrowthUrbanization

Climate ChangeCoastal

Vulnerabilities

A Perfect Storm?

(and the impact

on partnerships)


Ten(10) Largest Cities in 1000A.D. (M-Inhabitants)

Cordova Spain 0.450

Kaifeng China 0.400

Constantinople Turkey 0.300

Angkor Cambodia 0.200

Kyoto Japan 0.175

Cairo Egypt 0.135

Baghdad Iraq 0.125 (1.25???)

Nishapur Iran 0.125

Al-Hasa Saudi Arabia 0.110

Patan India 0.100

Source: Tertius Chandler: “4,000 Years of Urban Growth” (1987)

Sum - CY1000 (i=1,10) =

2.12M


Growth of Mega-Cities

City-1975 Population

TokyoNew YorkShanghaiMexico CitySao Paulo

19.815.911.411.210.0

City-2000 Population

TokyoMexico CityMumbaiSao PauloShanghaiNew YorkLagosLos AngelesKolkataBuenos AiresDhakaKarachiDelhiJakartaOsakaMetro ManilaBeijingRio de JaneiroCairo

26.418.118.117.817.016.613.413.112.912.612.311.811.711.011.010.910.810.610.6

City-2015 PopulationTokyoMumbaiLagosDhakaSao PauloKarachiMexico CityShanghaiNew YorkJakartaKolkataDelhiMetro ManilaLos AngelesBuenos AiresCairoIstanbulBeijingRio de JaneiroOsakaTianjinHyderabadBangkok

26.426.123.221.120.419.219.219.117.417.317.316.814.814.114.113.812.512.311.911.010.710.510.1

68.3 (5)

266.7 (19)

379.3 (23)Source: UN Population Division, March 2000

blue = coastal city (18)

green = inland city (5)

Sum – CY2000 (i=1,10) = 166.0M

Sum – CY2015 (i=1,10) = 209.4M


The March of Urbanization in the World (% global population)

Year World MDR LDR

1950 29.8 54.9 17.8

1975 37.9 70.0 26.8

2000 47.2 75.4 40.4

2030 60.2 82.6 56.4

MDR = more developed regions

LDR = less developed regions source: UNPD, 2001

Today, 50% of the world’s population live

in the cities and 1.3 million people move to the cities every week!


Squatter Cities

Kibera (Nairobi)

One billion now live in squatter cities (1/6 of global population)

Two billion more expected


City-Atmosphere Interactions

atmosphere impacts the city

city impacts the

atmosphere


Tornado – Ft. Worth, TX (March 28, 2000)

Source: North Central Texas Council of Governmentssimulation

March 28, 2000

Path Length: Approximately 3 miles Path Width: 1/4 mileF-Scale: F1 (73-112mph) to F2 (113-157mph)


France -- Heat Wave (August 13-28, 2003 )

Source: Zaitchik et al., 2006

Vegetation index anomaly Surface temperature anomaly

Solid lines demarcate conventional climate zones.

• 15,000 excess deaths in France

• 30,000 excess deaths in N. Europe

• Most in the cities

MODIS Imagery


Hurricane Katrina (2005) – Coastal Vulnerability

Courtesy of James

Franklin, NHC


Beijing -- Mega-City Smog


Coastal Vulnerabilities

High-impact coastal zone

• 53% U.S. population lives in coastal zone

• 10 of 15 largest U.S. cities are coastal

• Visitors swell coastal populations

Global Low-Level Coastal Zone:

• ≤ 10m msl

• 10% world population

• 6% world urban population

• 200M live ≤ 1m msl


Climate Change Impacts & the CitiesIPCC (FAR, 2007)

Phenomena and TrendsPost-1960 Likelihood that Trend Occurred

21st-Century Likelihood that Trend Will Occur

Warmer & less frequent cold days & nights over most land areas

Very likely

(90-99% probability)

Virtually certain

(>99% probability)

Warmer & more frequent hot days & nights over most land areas

Very likely Virtually certain

Warm spells/heat waves: frequency increases over most land areas

Likely

(66-90% probability)

Very likely

Heavy precipitation events: Frequency (or % of total from heavy rainfalls) increases over most areas

Likely Very likely

Area affected by droughts increases Likely in many regions since 1970

Likely

Intense tropical cyclone activity increases

Likely in some regions since 1970

Likely

Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis)

Likely Likely


Scale-Dependence of Weather Information Needs

• Analysis/description of current atmospheric state

• Nowcasting/very short-range forecasting (0+ to ~2 hrs)

• Short-range mesoscale prediction (~3 to 48 hrs)

Site of interest

Are

a (r

el.)

analysis

mesoscale prediction

nowcasting

Schematic

illustrationSchematic

illustration

Time (rel.)

As the timescale of the prediction decreases -- toward analysis and short- term nowcasting – the observing and forecasting requirements become more application-specific

As the timescale of the prediction decreases -- toward analysis and short- term nowcasting – the observing and forecasting requirements become more application-specific


Urban Needs for Environmental Information

Urban dwellers have different weather information needs than their rural counterparts, due to the diversity of user groups and population sectors, which include:• the general public• air quality management agencies• water supply and sewage providers• electric power industry• fuel suppliers – natural gas, fuel oil, coal, gasoline• transportation sectors – aviation, marine, and surface• emergency response agencies• public safety agencies• insurance companies and underwriters• health care providers• recreation facility providers.

The disparate groups of urban users

and their weather information needs

are a driving force for stronger

partnerships among the public,

private and academic sectors


[email protected]

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An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships? Dr. Walter Dabberdt...

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