An Industry Perspective on the Global Observing System Dr. Mary Altalo Science Applications International Corporation 8301 Greensboro Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 Phone (703) 676-468 [email protected]
Transcript
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An Industry Perspective on the Global Observing System Dr. Mary
Altalo Science Applications International Corporation 8301
Greensboro Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 Phone (703) 676-468
[email protected][email protected]
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2 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 2 Outline Vision of An
Information System Mission Statement for Sustainability- Societies
and Economies Provider and User Concept Market Segments for
Information Market Sector Decisions Requiring Information Economic
Valuations of Information Implication for Observing System Design
New Industry Drivers Further Issues Altalo
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3 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 3 Environmental
Information and Sustainability Mission
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4 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 4 Provider and User
Concept Dual Responsibilities Data & Information Actionable
Knowledge Providers Push Users Pull Partnership Added Value
-Interpret user Needs-Sensitize Market research Business
ResearchGovernment GOOS IOOS OOI National Met-Ocean Services
Altalo
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5 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 5 Target Market
Segments or Users Define the Optimal System Configuration Research
Community GovernmentsBusiness Energy Water Tourism & Leisure
Health Construction Transport Financial Services Defense
Altalo
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6 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 6
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7 7 EXAMPLES OF PRODUCTS OF INTEREST TO INDUSTRY 1.Sea Level
2.Current speed, rip tides, undertows 3.Real time and Average daily
temperature, humidity, rainfall 4.Average Annual temperature,
humidity,rainfall 5.Heating and cooling degree-days (Last 30 years)
6.Wind speeds and direction 7.Cloud Cover 8.Wave height 9.Ocean
current speed and direction 10.Red Tides
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8 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 8 Building Energy
Management Oil and Gas Operations & Planning
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9 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 9 Other
sectors---other uses
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10 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 10 How do Industries
use the Information? Case Studies Recreation and Tourism
Construction Industry Energy
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11 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 11 Leisure Industry
Needs. Altalo
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12 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 12 Recreation/Tourism
Business Decision Models Requiring Environmental Information
Revenue per available room (RevPar) Accommodation sector Occupancy
rates Accommodation sector Occupancy percentageAccommodation sector
Average Daily Rates (ADR)Accommodation sector Comparative Operating
Rates (COR) Accommodation sector Gross Operating Profit (% before
fees)Across the industry Economic Impact AssessmentAcross the
industry Financial rate of Return (FRR) Economic Rate of Return
(ERR) International arrivalsTravel sector Journeys madeTravel
sector Input Both Statistical and Probabilistic Hindcast and
Forecast Environmental Information Altalo
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13 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 13 Utilities-Energy
Pricing & 4hr forecasts of temp./ sea breeze - Scottish Power
Oil and Gas- Regional Energy infrastructure master planning and
climate/ocean conditions - BP Construction- Building codes &
standards with 20 year heat/ precipitation/sea level forecasts-
Building Research Establishment Leisure - Revenue projections and
seasonal temperature/ppt forecasts The Starwood Group,
Europe/Africa Finance Financial Risk Rating Index and air/water
quality and climate forecasts- SERM Rating Agency Health and EM-
Coastal metropolitan health alert planning and met/AQ forecasting-
National Environmental Research Institute (DMEE) Business/Policy
Trials: Observing System Product Performance Assessment in Business
Operations Altalo
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14 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 14 Starwood Hotel
Industry Trial Marbella, Spain Can seasonal environmental
information improve the accuracy of Revenue Forecasting in the
Ibearian Penninsula? Altalo
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15 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 15
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16 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 16 Resort
Construction Decisions Requiring Environmental Information
Seismic/soil Air/water Quality Sea Level/beach SST Red tides
Ppt/temp Climate, ppt, temp, winds Fire risk Storm surge Winds Sea
breeze Precipitation T,humidity,cloud cover, ppt Air quality
Emissions/air and water
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17 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 17
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18 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 18 Defining the Range
of Uncertainty NOAA 1998-2000-Defining the weather/climate
requirements for the energy industrybreadth of use across all
sectors and lead time Critical forecast periods for improvement Sub
day, 2-4 day, 90 day Altalo
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19 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 19 Observing System
Information in the Value Chain of CONOCO Business Units &
Functions Strategic planning Risk assessment -Political
-Safety/environ. -Social impact -Economic Host government
negotiation Strategic planning Risk assessment -Political
-Safety/environ. -Social impact -Economic Host government
negotiation Field development plan Risk assessment next level
Sustainable development plan next level Production wells -Land
based pads -Offshore platforms -Supply systems Field processing
Transportation system Field development plan Risk assessment next
level Sustainable development plan next level Production wells
-Land based pads -Offshore platforms -Supply systems Field
processing Transportation system Crude oil gathering systems
Terminals and trucks Overland crude oil pipelines Offshore
underwater pipelines FPSO & shuttle tankers Inland waterway
barges Tankers design Crude oil gathering systems Terminals and
trucks Overland crude oil pipelines Offshore underwater pipelines
FPSO & shuttle tankers Inland waterway barges Tankers design
Oil refineries Floating processing tankers Fixed platform
processing Deepwater tension leg platforms Natural gas processing
Carbon fibers Natural gas refining Safety, environment, and social
issues Oil refineries Floating processing tankers Fixed platform
processing Deepwater tension leg platforms Natural gas processing
Carbon fibers Natural gas refining Safety, environment, and social
issues Liquid product pipelines Gas pipelines LPC pipelines Product
terminals Trucking Inland waterway barges Product tankers
environment and social issues Liquid product pipelines Gas
pipelines LPC pipelines Product terminals Trucking Inland waterway
barges Product tankers environment and social issues Business
strategy Demand forecasting - Economic growth - Energy switching -
Weather/ climate Supply forecasting Hedging and futures
Transportation and inventory Business strategy Demand forecasting -
Economic growth - Energy switching - Weather/ climate Supply
forecasting Hedging and futures Transportation and inventory
Seismic evaluation Land prospect Underwater prospect Risk
assessments Sustainable development plan Exploration and drilling
Economic assessment Strategic alliances Seismic evaluation Land
prospect Underwater prospect Risk assessments Sustainable
development plan Exploration and drilling Economic assessment
Strategic alliances Listen-Understand Balance Quality,
Flexibility,Cost Safety & Environment NIMBY Competition
Listen-Understand Balance Quality, Flexibility,Cost Safety &
Environment NIMBY Competition Altalo
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Alternative Energy Supply Issues Renewables Portfolio Targets
for National Needs Governors targets- e.g. CA, 20% Renewables by
2017- currently at 12%; Federal Needs-Energy Security, energy
efficiency, emissions reductions (health) Renewables (wind/hydro)
Siting, Construction & Operation Offshore wind fields, wave
height, subsurface currents, storm prediction, sea level,
sedimentation, precipitation, evaporation, floods Renewable Energy
Delivery and Storage Demand variability due to extremes, storms,
fog portfolio management with offshore wind prediction Altalo
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21 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 21 Economic Valuation
of Information
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22 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 22 How to Calculate
the National Return on Investment? 1. Economic Cost-Benefit
Analysis- holistic approach based on assumptions 2. Business/Policy
Trials or Performance Assessment a.User-Supplier Partnership with
short term Goals b.Environmental Forecast Transforms into
Business/Policy Forecast c.Improved Skill of Environmental Forecast
increases Skill of the Business/Policy Forecast, thus Demand Pull
d.Requires Information from Ocean, Weather and Climate Observing
Systems e.Guides Marketplace Decisions and Strategy f.Informs
National Policy and Strategy g.Prioritizes National S & T
Strategy for Observing system design, implementation and
operational decisions Altalo
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23 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 23 Method Template or
Roadmap 1. Generic concept portable to all nations, industries,
observing systems and products 2. Starts with the Function of
Decision Making 3. ID Organisational Units making the decision into
which environmental information fits 4. ID the business forecast
models, formats, portals 5. Tailors environmental forecasts to need
6. Assimilate information 7. Generate scenarios 8. Analyse options
9. Evaluate consequences (fiscal and risk) Altalo
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2002-5 Regional Market and Policy Imperatives as Drivers for US
Coastal GOOS
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The Northeast Energy Network Performance Analysis University of
New Hampshire
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26 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 26 Overall Goal
Examine the value of improvement in weather/climate forecast
accuracy to major stakeholders in the Electric Power Value Chain
(Sellers, Distributors, Buyers) Determine the precise requirements
of the stakeholders for the improvements of decisions-what do you
do? Establish the Impact of forecast accuracy on the operation and
planning decisions of the Industry Examine and Improve the Decision
Support Tools of the User community to institutionalize information
Develop the Stakeholder Advocacy through experience Altalo
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27 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 27 The Setting for
the Stakeholder Assessment 1 New England Grid Operator weather
impacts on short term load forecasting Major Urban Utility weather
impacts on distribution system loads Major state owned end user use
of weather forecasting to control day ahead electric prices and
manage natural gas and electricity costs at state facilities
Altalo
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28 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 28 The Industry
Trials Approach Identify stakeholder industries Vulnerability
assessment Benchmark Use of environmental Information Perform an
error analysis Generate scenarios Options analysis Beta Test
Environmental Information Determine Costs and optimize Altalo
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29 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 29 Key Utility
functions/decisions requiring coastal weather/climate/ocean data
Load Balancing-single utility and grid Generation commitment- fuel
mix choice (fossil fuel, hydro, wind) Dispatch scheduling Power
Marketing Cash trading Power pricing Fuel pricing and procurement
Tariff Scheduling Pump Load (Irrigation) Forecasting for Hydro
Natural Gas Storage Management Revenue Projections Infrastructure
siting Management strategic planning Altalo
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30 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 30 Urban Utility Case
Study Findings 1: Significant load error due to weather Most
utilities calculate weather error in MW as well as percentage of
variance of the load. Analysis indicates that on some days,
variance in the load forecast in MW may be solely due to weather
error. This appears to be from events or unmodeled mesoscale
features such as back door fronts, sea breeze and afternoon
thunderstorms. The cost of such events can be up to $10M/day
Altalo
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Wind Resource Map Produced by SiteWind NESTING THE COASTAL INTO
THE GLOBAL: KEY TO DESIGNING FOR APPLICATIONS
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32 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 32 Key Cost Findings
2002-2003 NOAA Northeast Energy The project estimated that the
benefits of improving day ahead weather forecast accuracy by one
degree F or by reducing forecasting error by 50% for days 2-7 is:
--$20-25 million per year for a regional transmission authority
--$1-2 million/year for a major distribution utility. Optimal use
of weather information could yield savings of $818 million/year for
a major university system (electric and natural gas). If these
savings were generalized to other regional transmission
organizations, large statewide colleges and universities and
regional transmission authorities the total savings would be for
the Northeast Region: -- $100-140 million/year for ISOs --$30-60
million for regional electric distribution companies. -- $38-67
million for Statewide university campuses Furthermore, capturing
the events on top of this will yield significantly higher savings
(millions/day).- seabreeze, backdoor fronts, afternoon showers
Altalo
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33 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 33 Case Studies 2 and
3
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34 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 34 Relationship of
Weather Uncertainty and Cost: Grid Operating Companies
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35 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 35 ISO Mean Daily
Forecast Error Delta Breeze and weather/load forecast errors
contribute to major errors in prediction of Delta Breeze effects
Delta Breeze is defined as the conditions when the wind speed is
> 12 knots, and the direction being between 190 degrees and 280
degrees. Multiple causes and dynamics that cause Delta Breeze. A
major priority of the ISO is to reduce this error
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36 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 36 The Inextricable
Relationship of Weather Uncertainty and Cost: Grid Operating
Companies Cost: Driven by spot market and last marginal unit
required Replacement power costs are often highest during periods
of high peak demand and congestion Replacement power costs can be
anywhere from from $200/MWh to over $1000. Price caps exist in
California and western states which artificially suppress real
market clearing prices Potential market value costs might range
anywhere from $200-$1000/MWh Cutting forecast error by 70% can save
as much as $560,000-$2,800,000 per hour during critical peak
periods!
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37 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 37 Principle Causes
of Uncertainty on Energy Operations and Planning Uncaptured WIND
Events Delta Breeze- Cal ISO Lake effects- Salt Lake City-
Pacificorp, Great Lakes- SUNY Buffalo Seabreeze- NE ISO Frontal
passage- 2-4 day Uncaptured PRECIPITATION Events Rain vs. snow/ice
Regional day ahead error in precipitation- Pacificorp Afternoon
thunderstorms Marine Layer, fog- SDG&E Drought and flood, flash
flood Uncaptured CLIMATE Events Climate outlooks weather events
frequency El Nino and seasonal events Decadal ocsillations- NAO
RESOLUTION- Spatial, temporal Sub grid level Targeted watershed
level, Nodal, congestion and population Topographic Effects-
microzones Hourly changes during events Load Model Error 50% load
error at certain event periods Cant incorporate probabilities/
ensembles Sub-optimal Use Altalo
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38 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 38 Requirements
Altalo
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39 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 39 Business Process
Reengineering Needed for Improved Decision Making Incorporate
Climate Change parameters into planning Incorporate Probability
Distribution forecasts into models Incorporate Ensemble Forecasting
into methods Incorporate complex topographic features for
microclimate estimates Include rainfall behavior on sub-grid level
(soil moisture and evaporation) Incorporate seabreeze, lake effect,
fog, afternoon thunderstorms and frontal passage into forecasts
Altalo
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40 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 40 New Industry
Sustainability Drivers Triple Bottom Line Metrics Environmental
Protection Social Enhancement Company Profit Socially Responsible
Investment
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41 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 41 Sustainability as
a Driver for System Requirements As more corporations are adopting
efficiency measures and "sustainability strategies" in which
"triple bottom line" company performance metrics of profit,
environmental health and social benefit are valued equally, the
requirements for new information from observing systems will
escalate.
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42 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 42
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43 Your IT Business Partner to the Future 43 Design to social
and economic requirements Formulate Long term investment strategy
with all parties Define socially relevant metrics Prepare the
business community to mainstream environmental Information in
business decision aids Conduct pilots for engagement Focus on
Outcomes and Impacts Prepare the ROI ISSUES Altalo