An International Assessment of the Role of An International Assessment of the Role of Agricultural Science and Technology for Agricultural Science and Technology for

DevelopmentDevelopment

on behalf of on behalf of

Hans, Judi and BobHans, Judi and Boband the Secretariatand the Secretariat

BangkokBangkokMay, 2006May, 2006

Scope of PresentationScope of Presentation Peer-review process: Roles and Peer-review process: Roles and

Responsibilities of authors and review Responsibilities of authors and review editorseditors

What is an Assessment and the features What is an Assessment and the features of a good Executive Summaryof a good Executive Summary

Elements of the IAASTDElements of the IAASTD

Next StepsNext Steps

Peer-Review Process:Peer-Review Process:

Roles and Responsibilities of Authors and Roles and Responsibilities of Authors and Review EditorsReview Editors

Peer-Review ProcessPeer-Review Process Final draft chapters to Secretariat by July 25Final draft chapters to Secretariat by July 25

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary Agreed formatAgreed format High quality tables and graphics High quality tables and graphics Well referencedWell referenced

Secretariat needs at least 3 weeks Secretariat needs at least 3 weeks

Sent to experts and governments for review on August 11Sent to experts and governments for review on August 11

Comments back to Secretariat by September 22Comments back to Secretariat by September 22

Collated and un-collated comments on web by October 7Collated and un-collated comments on web by October 7

Third authors meeting: November 6-10Third authors meeting: November 6-10 Suggest half day with CLAsSuggest half day with CLAs Five days for all authorsFive days for all authors

Review EditorsReview Editors Nomination deadline for review editors is May 22 (with vitae) or Nomination deadline for review editors is May 22 (with vitae) or

May 12 (without vitae) – please send names and vitae or at least May 12 (without vitae) – please send names and vitae or at least names and contact information – 2-3 page vitaenames and contact information – 2-3 page vitae

Names will be sent to Bureau for approval by June 7Names will be sent to Bureau for approval by June 7

Work with the chapter authors to assess how to take into account Work with the chapter authors to assess how to take into account the peer-review commentsthe peer-review comments• Especially for controversial and contentious issuesEspecially for controversial and contentious issues• Final decision regarding the text is with the authorsFinal decision regarding the text is with the authors

If there is a difference of opinion between the authors and review If there is a difference of opinion between the authors and review editors, the authors and editors opinions are referred to the co-editors, the authors and editors opinions are referred to the co-chairs and director to mediatechairs and director to mediate

Review editors will attend the 3Review editors will attend the 3rdrd and 4 and 4thth global authors meetings global authors meetings

What is an Assessment and the What is an Assessment and the Characteristics of an Executive SummaryCharacteristics of an Executive Summary

IAASTD CharacteristicsIAASTD CharacteristicsAgreed features:Agreed features:

Present local, regional and global perspectivePresent local, regional and global perspective

Conducted according to an open, transparent, Conducted according to an open, transparent, representative and legitimate processrepresentative and legitimate process

Evidence-based, not based on value systemsEvidence-based, not based on value systems

Policy relevant, not policy prescriptive, presenting Policy relevant, not policy prescriptive, presenting options not recommendationsoptions not recommendations

Present different viewsPresent different views

Quantify uncertaintiesQuantify uncertainties

What is an Assessment?What is an Assessment?

An assessment is a An assessment is a critical evaluationcritical evaluation of of information, for purposes of guiding decisions information, for purposes of guiding decisions on a complex, public issue on a complex, public issue

Assessments should Assessments should reduce reduce complexity but complexity but add add valuevalue by summarisation, synthesis and sorting by summarisation, synthesis and sorting what is known and widely accepted from what what is known and widely accepted from what is not known (or not agreed)is not known (or not agreed)

Assessments relate to the situation at a Assessments relate to the situation at a particular time and in a given geographical particular time and in a given geographical domain domain

Assessment Assessment vsvs Review Review

ReviewReview AssessmentAssessment

AudienceAudience ScientistsScientists Decision-makersDecision-makers

Done byDone by One or a fewOne or a few Large and varied groupLarge and varied group

TopicTopic Simple and Simple and narrownarrow

Broad and complexBroad and complex

Identifies gaps inIdentifies gaps in Research: Research: curiosity-drivencuriosity-driven

Knowledge for Knowledge for implementation: problem-implementation: problem-drivendriven

(Un)certainty (Un)certainty statementsstatements

Not requiredNot required EssentialEssential

JudgementJudgement HiddenHidden Required but clearly Required but clearly flaggedflagged

CoverageCoverage Exhaustive, Exhaustive, historicalhistorical

Sufficient to deal with Sufficient to deal with main range of uncertaintymain range of uncertainty

SynthesisSynthesis Not requiredNot required Essential to reduce Essential to reduce complexitycomplexity

Features of a good executive summaryFeatures of a good executive summary Highlights key findings (decision maker Highlights key findings (decision maker

relevant) supported by arguments/evidence relevant) supported by arguments/evidence Should follow the chapter outline but don’t Should follow the chapter outline but don’t

have to have to have key findings for all the have to have to have key findings for all the sections sections

Be brief but not cryptic - avoid ambiguity and Be brief but not cryptic - avoid ambiguity and generalitiesgeneralities

Tone has to be consistent with the chapterTone has to be consistent with the chapter State degree of confidence wherever possible - State degree of confidence wherever possible -

robust findings and key uncertaintiesrobust findings and key uncertainties No literature referencesNo literature references Should identify gaps - what do we know and Should identify gaps - what do we know and

what we don’t knowwhat we don’t know Has to be transferable into the Summary for Has to be transferable into the Summary for

Decision makersDecision makers Text should be user friendly - not too technicalText should be user friendly - not too technical

Example of bullets from exec Example of bullets from exec summariessummaries

The risk of extinction will increase for many species that are The risk of extinction will increase for many species that are already vulnerable.already vulnerable. Species with limited climatic ranges and/or Species with limited climatic ranges and/or restricted habitat requirements and/or small populations are restricted habitat requirements and/or small populations are typically the most vulnerable to extinction, such as endemic typically the most vulnerable to extinction, such as endemic mountain species and biota restricted to islands (e.g., birds), mountain species and biota restricted to islands (e.g., birds), peninsulas (e.g., Cape Floral Kingdom), or coastal areas (e.g., peninsulas (e.g., Cape Floral Kingdom), or coastal areas (e.g., mangroves, coastal wetlands, and coral reefs). In contrast, species mangroves, coastal wetlands, and coral reefs). In contrast, species with extensive, non-patchy ranges, long-range dispersal with extensive, non-patchy ranges, long-range dispersal mechanisms, and large populations are at less risk of extinction. mechanisms, and large populations are at less risk of extinction. While there is little evidence to suggest that climate change will While there is little evidence to suggest that climate change will slow species losses, there is evidence it may increase species losses. slow species losses, there is evidence it may increase species losses. In some regions there may be an increase in local biodiversity—In some regions there may be an increase in local biodiversity—usually as a result of species introductions, the long-term usually as a result of species introductions, the long-term consequences of which are hard to foresee. consequences of which are hard to foresee.

Example of bullets from exec Example of bullets from exec summariessummaries

Recent regional changes in climate, particularly increases Recent regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected hydrological systems in temperature, have already affected hydrological systems and terrestrial and marine ecosystems in many parts of the and terrestrial and marine ecosystems in many parts of the world.world. The observed changes in these systems are coherent across diverse localities and/or regions and are consistent in direction with the expected effects of regional changes in temperature. The probability that the observed changes in the expected direction (with no reference to magnitude) could occur by chance alone is negligible.

Example of bullets from exec Example of bullets from exec summariessummaries

Models of cereal crops indicate that in some temperate areas potential yields increase with small increases in temperature but decrease with larger temperature changes (medium to low confidence), where-as in most tropical and subtropical regions, potential yields are projected to decrease for most projected increases in temperature (medium confidence). Where there is also a large decrease in rainfall in subtropical and tropical dryland/rainfed systems, crop yields would be even more adversely affected. These estimates include some adaptive responses by farmers and the beneficial effects of CO2 fertilization, but not the impact of projected increases in pest infestations and changes in climate extremes. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stresses associated with climate change is poorly known. Warming of a few ºC or more is projected to increase food prices globally, and may increase the risk of hunger in vulnerable populations.

Example of bullets from exec Example of bullets from exec summariessummaries

Climate change will exacerbate water shortages Climate change will exacerbate water shortages in many water-scarce areas of the world.in many water-scarce areas of the world. Demand for water is generally increasing due to population growth and economic development, but is falling in some countries because of increased efficiency of use. Climate change is projected to substantially reduce available water (as reflected by projected runoff) in many of the water-scarce areas of the world, but to increase it in some other areas (medium confidence). Freshwater quality generally would be degraded by higher water temperatures (high confidence), but this may be offset in some regions by increased flows.

Elements of the IAASTDElements of the IAASTD

Elements of the IAASTDElements of the IAASTD Global Assessment Global Assessment

10 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding 10 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding references), each with a 2-3 page executive references), each with a 2-3 page executive summarysummary

5-15 page Summary for Decision Makers5-15 page Summary for Decision Makers

Five Sub-global AssessmentsFive Sub-global Assessments 5 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding 5 chapters (about 50 pages each, excluding

references), , each with a 2-3 page executive references), , each with a 2-3 page executive summarysummary

5-10 page Summary for Decision Makers5-10 page Summary for Decision Makers

Synthesis ReportSynthesis Report 50 pages50 pages Summary for Decision Makers of 5-10 pagesSummary for Decision Makers of 5-10 pages

Summary for Decision MakersSummary for Decision MakersThe most critical element of the assessmentThe most critical element of the assessment

written for policymakers in less technical languagewritten for policymakers in less technical language

summarizes the most policy-relevant conclusionssummarizes the most policy-relevant conclusions

ensures government/stakeholder ownership of the ensures government/stakeholder ownership of the conclusionsconclusions

written by the experts - normally the Co-chairs, written by the experts - normally the Co-chairs, Director and Chapter CLAs, with critical input by the Director and Chapter CLAs, with critical input by the lead authorslead authors

peer-reviewed by all lead authors, experts and peer-reviewed by all lead authors, experts and governmentsgovernments

5-15 pages, including figures5-15 pages, including figures

approved by governments/stakeholders in plenary approved by governments/stakeholders in plenary line-by-line, but with experts in attendance ensuring line-by-line, but with experts in attendance ensuring total consistency with the underlying reportstotal consistency with the underlying reports

Synthesis ReportSynthesis Report• Synthesizes the key findings from the global and sub-global Synthesizes the key findings from the global and sub-global

assessmentsassessments

• Summarizes conclusions that are globally relevant, while Summarizes conclusions that are globally relevant, while highlighting regional/sub-regional differenceshighlighting regional/sub-regional differences

• Will focus on the development goals and the cross-cutting Will focus on the development goals and the cross-cutting issuesissues

NRM (availability, access) emphasis on waterNRM (availability, access) emphasis on water

Markets Markets

Public and private sector investments in AKST Public and private sector investments in AKST

and possibly other specific public policy issues, e.g., and possibly other specific public policy issues, e.g.,

Human health, including animal-human health interactionsHuman health, including animal-human health interactions

Aquaculture, biofuels, transgenicsAquaculture, biofuels, transgenics

• A 25-50 page report and a 5-10 page summary for decision A 25-50 page report and a 5-10 page summary for decision MakersMakers

• Simultaneous expert and government reviewSimultaneous expert and government review

• SPM approved line by line, longer report adopted paragraph by SPM approved line by line, longer report adopted paragraph by paragraphparagraph

Next StepsNext Steps

Next StepsNext Steps Finalize chapters, including executive summaries, figures, Finalize chapters, including executive summaries, figures,

tables and referencestables and references

LAs need to support their CLAs LAs need to support their CLAs Please submit promised text on timePlease submit promised text on time Secretariat can facilitate teleconferences among and Secretariat can facilitate teleconferences among and

between author teams if neededbetween author teams if needed

Please put your Chapters on the web so that we can ensure Please put your Chapters on the web so that we can ensure consistency across chaptersconsistency across chapters

Do not avoid potentially controversial issues Do not avoid potentially controversial issues

Use terms consistent with the glossaryUse terms consistent with the glossary Biotechnology, institutions, poverty, …………Biotechnology, institutions, poverty, …………

Next StepsNext Steps

The co-Chairs, in collaboration with the The co-Chairs, in collaboration with the Secretariat, and in consultation with IWMI, Secretariat, and in consultation with IWMI, decide on whether to hold the third global lead decide on whether to hold the third global lead authors meeting in Sri Lanka or move it – likely to authors meeting in Sri Lanka or move it – likely to South AfricaSouth Africa your input to our decision is vital – you must feel safeyour input to our decision is vital – you must feel safe

We will make a decision and inform you within We will make a decision and inform you within one monthone month

Final WordsFinal Words

Thank you for all your hard work – we Thank you for all your hard work – we recognize you all have very busy lives and recognize you all have very busy lives and this is a major sacrifice of your time and this is a major sacrifice of your time and

takes you away from your families, friends takes you away from your families, friends and organizationsand organizations

The spirit at this meeting has been The spirit at this meeting has been outstanding and bodes well for the futureoutstanding and bodes well for the future

Once again, thank youOnce again, thank you