An Overview Based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment …...2017/02/12 · An introduction to climate...

An introduction to climate change An Overview Based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele

(Univ. catholique de Louvain, Belgium) Former IPCC Vice-Chair (2008-2015)

Twitter: @JPvanYpersele

Infocycle BTC (Belgian Technical Cooperation), Brussels, 12 February 2017

Thanks to the Walloon Government and to my team at the Université catholique de Louvain for their support

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/lying-statistics-global-warming-edition

LyingWithSta,s,cs,GlobalWarmingEdi,on


LyingWithSta,s,cs,GlobalWarmingEdi,on


WhytheIPCC?

toprovidepolicy-makerswithanobjec,vesourceofinforma,onabout

•  causesofclimatechange,•  poten,alenvironmental

andsocio-economicimpacts,

•  possibleresponseop,ons(adapta,on&mi,ga,on).

WMO=WorldMeteorologicalOrganiza,onUNEP=UnitedNa,onsEnvironment

Programme

Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

What is happening in the climate system?

What are the risks?

What can be done?

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Key messages from IPCC AR5 ! Human influence on the climate system is clear ! Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems

! While climate change is a threat to sustainable development, there are many opportunities to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit of other societal objectives

! Humanity has the means to limit climate change and build a more sustainable and resilient future

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.1

a)

Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common

9

There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes

Arc,cSeaIceCover(1979-2016)

PlateauGlacier(1961)(Alaska)

h#p://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share

PlateauGlacier(2003)(Alaska)

h#p://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share

K"*07)!20!*3),*7)!1)*64)3)4!-"*07)!

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])

CO2concentraLonmeasuredatMaunaLoa(3400m)

Source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)

Without Greenhouse Effect

solar

20%

Infrared

-18 C

Tyndall (1861) mesure l’absorption du rayonnement par les gaz

With Greenhouse Effect

solar

20%

Convection,etc...

Infrared

H2O

CO2, CH4...

+15 C 95%

Figure SPM.5 Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Bertrand et al. 2001

Separate effect of different factors in the 2-dimensional climate model at UCL

Bertrand et al. 2001

Combined effect of all factors in the 2-dimensional climate model at UCL

AR3 AR2

AR1 AR4

A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution

AR1 (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade”

AR2 (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence”

AR3 (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities”

AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases”

IPCC

RG>!O:;<=Q!SF+!21!8W(48581"&1#@81"&!O.MM1!T>!.8+!.U!<;;Q!+"*+!"8/*0!20V8)0-)!!"*1!W))0!+")!M./20*0+!-*81)X!Y!

(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)

+30%

2014

The concentrations of CO2 have increased to levels

unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

1000 years before present

CO

2 Con

cent

ratio

ns (p

pm)

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2!

Carbon cycle: unperturbed fluxes

Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year (multiply by 3.7 to get GtCO2)

120

70.5

70

2300

Atmosphere pre-ind : 597

38000 Ocean

3700

respiration

Physical,

Chemical, and Biological processes

photosynthesis 119.5

[email protected]

280 ppmv (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC) GtC

Carbon cycle: perturbed by human activities (numbers for the decade 1990-1999s, based on IPCC AR4)

Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year

120

70.5

70

2300

Atmosphere pre-ind : 597

38000 Ocean

3700

GtC + 3.2/yr

déforestation (& land use changes) Fossil fuels

6.4

-244 +120 -40

1.6 sinks

2.6 respiration

2.2

Physical, Chemical, and

Biological processes

photosynthesis 119.5

[email protected] Stocks!

280 ppmv + 1.5 ppmv/yr (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC)

Thecarboncycleispolicy-relevant

•  CO2accumulatesintheatmosphereaslongashumanemissionsarelargerthanthenaturalabsorp,oncapacity

•  HistoricalemissionsfromdevelopedcountriesthereforemaZerforalong,me

•  Aswarmingisfunc,onofcumulatedemissions,thecarbon«space»isnarrowingfast(tostayunder1.5or2°Cwarming)


AR5 SYR SPM


Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions

35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4%

2010 GHG emissions

Energy Sector

Agriculture, forests and

other land uses

Industry Transport Building Sector

AR5 WGIII SPM

RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration

AR5, chapter 12. WGI- Adopted version / subject to final copyedit

Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6 One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5

Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains the global surface temperature increase above the pre-industrial level to less than 2°C with at

least 66% probability

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.7

a)

18-20000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum) With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.

Today, with +4-5°C globally With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.

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IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

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;<=4>:%$-)/"+1&%%%%

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Precipitation projections Annual rainfall projections

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Sea level due to continue to increase

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.9

)

(Ref: 1986-2005)

B/2112.01!O6`!-.0-)0+,*L.01Q!6`!+)/$),*+8,)!6`!1)*64)3)4!

Emissions!(all GHGs)! Sea-level!

~3°C!

~1.5m!

> 3m!

Source: adapted from Schae"er et al., Nature clim. chg. (2012) !

Global average !temperature!

~1.7°C!

< 1m!

With 1 metre sea-level rise: 63000 ha below sea-level in Belgium (likely in 22nd century, not impossible in 21st century)

(NB: flooded area depends on protection)

Source: J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (2004) See www.climate.be/impacts

(Time 2001)

Effets sur le Delta du Nil, où vivent plus de 10 millions de personnes à moins d’1 m d’altitude

With 8 metre sea-level rise: 3700 km2 below sea-level in Belgium (very possible in year 3000)

(NB: flooded area depends on protection)

Source: J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (2004) See www.climate.be/impacts

Global ocean surface pH (projections)

Ocean Acidification, for RCP 8.5 (orange) & RCP2.6 (blue)

Oceans are Acidifying Fast !!!.

Changes in pH over the last 25 million years

Turley et al. 2006

•! It is happening now, at a speed and to a level not experienced by marine organisms for about 60 million years •!Mass extinctions linked to previous ocean acidification events

•! Takes 10,000 s of years to recover

Today is a rare event in the history of the World

Slide courtesy of Carol Turley, PML

J$1"&Rc&2D&()8&048+(&d+44#84&b88D&)+-&+>2#787&.24+1&318+.)#$%&EI+"&STPUG&

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DJFseasonalchangesinheavyprecipita,on(%),2071-2100comparedto1971-2000

IPCC,AR5,WGII,Chap.23,p.1277


95=+.(-&+48&+148+7"&C$784A+"&

•! Tropics%to%the%poles •! On%all%continents%and%in%the%ocean •! Affecting%rich%and%poor%countries (but the

poor are more vulnerable everywhere)

AR5 WGII SPM

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change

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AR5 WGII SPM

ALREADY OCCURRING ADAPTATION IS

Flood risk adaptation in Bangladesh (example): cyclone shelters, awareness raising, forecasting and warning

Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events!) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62

Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events!) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62

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IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8

Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction through adaptation F"()+%

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Regional key risks and risk reduction through adaptation

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Risquemajeurpourl’Afrique:eauAggrava,ondespressionsexercéessurlesressources

hydriquesdéjalourdementsollicitéesparlasurexploita,onetladégrada,on,etquiferontfaceàl'aveniràune

demandeaccrue.Stressdûàlasécheresseexacerbédanslesrégionsafricainesdéjaexposéesàcefléau(degrede

confianceéleve).

IPCC,AR5,GTII,RID,p.21

Risquemajeurpourl’Afrique:agricultureBaissedelaproduc,vitedesculturesdueàlachaleuretàla

sécheresse—dontlesconséquencessurlesmoyensdesubsistanceetlasécuritealimentairedespays,desrégionsetdesménagespourraientêtregraves—ainsiqu'auxdommagescausésparlesravageurs,lesmaladiesetlesinonda,onssurl'infrastructuredes

systèmesalimentaires(degredeconfianceéleve)


Figure TS.7. Sensitivity of cereal yield to climate change

Maïs

Blé

Risquemajeurpourl’Afrique:santéVaria,onsdel'incidenceetdel’extensiongéographiquedesmaladiesàtransmissionvectorielleoud’originehydriqueduesàl'évolu,ondestempératuresetdesprécipita,ons

moyennesetdeleurvariabilite,enpar,culierauxlimitesdeleursairesderépar,,on(degredeconfiancemoyen)



Relationship between maximum temperature and mortality in Shanghai, China, 1980-89

Référence : ClLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH, 1996

IPCC, AR5, SYR, SPM 8

Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction: Small Islands

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WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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+1.5°C +2°C

~pre-ind 1986-2005

Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.

Fig. SPM.10

© IP

CC

201

3

Fig. SPM.10

Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

© IP

CC

201

3


The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal is already used NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C

Amount Used 1870-2011:

1900 GtCO2

Amount Remaining:

1000 GtCO2

Total Carbon Budget:

2900 GtCO2

AR5 WGI SPM NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr


*(+3#1#L+,2$&2D&+(52-=)84#.&.2$.8$(4+,2$-&48kC#48-&52>#$%&+A+"&D425&()8&3+-81#$8&a&48%+4718--&2D&()8&5#,%+,2$&%2+1H&

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GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.


Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C

Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C

A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks

Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges

But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C

AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM

Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C

A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks

But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C

[.,5207!\,.8$!FFF!-.0+,2W8L.0!+.!+")!FZKK!]2^"!R11)11/)0+!G)$.,+!

Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C (over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ? •!Many scenario studies confirm that it is technically and economically feasible to keep the warming below 2°C, with more than 66% probability (”likely chance”). This would imply limiting atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm CO2-eq by 2100.

•!Such scenarios for an above 66% chance of staying below 2°C imply reducing by 40 to 70% global GHG emissions compared to 2010 by mid-century, and reach zero or negative emissions by 2100.


Mitigation Measures

More efficient use of energy

Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy - Many of these technologies exist today - But worldwide investment in research in support of GHG mitigation is small!

Improved carbon sinks - Reduced deforestation and improved forest management

and planting of new forests - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM

•  Mitigation requires major technological and institutional changes including the upscaling of low- and zero carbon energy (quadrupling from 2010 to 2050 for the scenario limiting warming below 2°C)

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute by 2030

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

(avoided emissions: the higher, the better)

IPCC AR4 (2007)

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Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns.

•  Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns e.g., from 2010 to 2029, in billions US dollars/year: (mean numbers rounded, IPCC AR5 WGIII Fig SPM 9)

•  energy efficiency: +330 •  renewables: + 90 •  power plants w/ CCS: + 40 •  nuclear: + 40 •  power plants w/o CCS: - 60 •  fossil fuel extraction: - 120


Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable ! Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06%

(BAU growth 1.6 - 3%/year) ! This translates into delayed and not forgone growth ! Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced climate change ! Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to economic growth and efforts to eradicate poverty AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM

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Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.


The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes (and affect prospects for effective adaptation)

With substantial mitigation

Without additional mitigation

Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM

The Hidden IPCC Message:

•  If it’s possible and not enough

happens, what is lacking? • Political will, at the appropriate

scale

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Useful links: !! www.ipcc.ch : IPCC (reports and videos) !! www.climate.be/vanyp : my slides and other

documents !! www.skepticalscience.com: excellent

responses to contrarians arguments !! On Twitter: @JPvanYpersele and @IPCC_CH

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