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An overview of analytical An overview of analytical findings and recent developmentsfindings and recent developments
Roger Nelson, DirectorRoger Nelson, DirectorPeter Bancel, Principal AnalystPeter Bancel, Principal Analyst
Global Consciousness ProjectGlobal Consciousness Projecthttp://noosphere.princeton.eduhttp://noosphere.princeton.edu
What's Happening In the What's Happening In the Global Consciousness Global Consciousness
Project?Project?
StructureWhere there should be none
There is “some there there” Odds less than 1 in 1,000,000 Two independent measures Correlated response to events Distance structure Time structure Psychological structure Data anomalies vs selection A sampling of explorations
http://noosphere.princeton.edu/egghosts/
A World Spanning Network of REGs (EGGs)
Google Map of nodes
Internet transfer of data to Princeton It looks random: Combined dataFor a whole day, about 60 eggs
Average cumulative deviationshown by the black dotted line
We can see better what’s happening byPlotting cumulative deviations (2 - df)
Formal tests: First identify major events Then ask if there is a trend of accumulating deviations
Figures show sequential history of a sample ofData collected in a pre-defined time period
The test statistic is the terminal value
September 11 2001 Destruction of the World Trade Towers
A 50-hour trend followed the attacks
Two days
Synchronized Meditation Half a million people aroud the world
New Years Eve 1999-2008 (10 years 37 time zones)
Average Variance Decrease
Concatenate almost 10 years of formal data 250 rigorously defined global events
Odds: Million to 1 against chance
Small effect: The average Z-score is about 0.35
Independent Statistics
First order, S1, is called Netvar Second order, S2, is called
Covar
S2:
S1:
Control data, 1000 Resamplings of Database
S1+S2
S1
S2
Event data contain Highly significant correlations
Independent MeasuresSimulate Netvar with average effect Calculate Covar for same “events”
Blue = random Netvar
Red = random Covar
Time structure: Sliding the “event” away From the actual event time producesDrop-off for both Netvar and Covar
Blue = Network Variance
Red = Global Covariance
Correlatedmeasures
Event+/- 15 days
Dispersion = Netvar+Covar
Time structureCorrelation of two independent measuresZ-scores maximal for events ~ 1-2 hours
What might explain this?
Distance StructureIndependent measures, distance scaleBoth are driven by inter-reg correlation
Blue: pair-product data in 1000 km binsRed: simulation in 7 event pseudo-sets
Green line: regression fit to real dataBlue line: regression fit simulation data
Yellow: weighting for regression
Psychology: Netvar and Covar ResponseDiffers for Categories of events
Blue = NetvarRed = CovarGold = Relative DF
Netvar and Covar ResponseCorrelation in “Super” Categories
Blue = NetvarRed = CovarGreen = CorrelationGold = Relative DF
ANOVAInteraction: Statistic x Category
Blue = Netvar Red = Covar
Event Data Simulation Data
2-Way ANOVA: Netvar and Covar Statistic by Category Interaction
Data Sort P-value
3 categories 0.008
6 categories 0.057
6 cats + astro 0.042
6 cats +wcup 0.039
6 + astro + wcup 0.028
Daily Rhythm?Only exact 24 hour “day” shows
Evidence of correlation with consciousness
Explorations
Long term trend suggests Searching for external correlates
Social variable: Presidential Approval
Raw Approval Rating2 Parameter model fit
F = a (value) + b (slope)Red = polls
Blue = data
Red = polls
Blue = data
It is important to rememberthis is a correlation. There is no assertion of causation.
Explorations
All Earthquakes, Richter 6 or More Cumulative Deviation of Covariance
Controls (no humans affected)Ocean Quakes +/- 30 hours
Quakes on Land +/- 30 hours
Same trend, independent subsets Begin early ~ 8 hours before quake
Consciousness impliedPremonition suggested
GCP/EGG ProjectGCP/EGG ProjectThe people who make it goThe people who make it go
International collaboration of 100 Scientists, Artists, Friends, …
Peter Bancel, Paris, professional analysis, collaborationWilliam Treurniet, Canada, egganalysis programmingJohn Walker, Switzerland, programming, general supportRichard & Connie Adams, USA, general supportPaul Bethke, USA, windows programming, networkDick Bierman, Netherlands, design and realtime displayDean Radin, USA, design and independent analysisBrad Anderson, USA, widget programmingTaylor Jackson, Canada, realtime display maintenanceGreg & Lefty Nelson, USA, program architecture, general supportFernando Rodríguez, Spain, egghosts google mapLeane Roffey, USA, music, outreach, general supportJaroen Ruuward, Netherlands, realtime programmingDick Shoup, USA, independent analysisNishith Singh, India, realtime programmingMahadeva Srinivasan, India, general support… And all the EGG hosts around the world