ANOVERVIEWOFTHEMAINEECONOMY
Per Capita Personal Income, 2014 (BEA)
JamesBreeceSchoolofEconomics
February2016
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page1
ANOVERVIEWOFTHEMAINEECONOMYThisdocumentisacollectionofdataandgraphsgeneratedbyleadingexpertsandgovernmentagencies.TogethertheyportraythecurrentstateoftheMaineeconomyandexposefundamentalchangesthatareinfluencingtheeconomy’sfuture.
Summary
1. EconomicMomentumandOutlooko Currentindicatorsshowmildeconomicgrowth,whichisexpectedto
continue2. EconomicActivity
o Economicoutputranks46inthecountry,andoutputperworkerranks48
o PerCapitaPersonalIncomegrew3%in2014andranks33inthenation
o Thereisadisconnectbetweenincomegrowthandemploymentgrowth
o MainehasexperiencedaLOSTDECADEintermsofemployment3. DemographicTrends
o Mainehastheoldestpopulationinthecountryo Demographicchangeswillplaceaddedpressureonlabormarket
gaps,healthcareandpublicservices4. Manufacturing
o Likethenation,Maineistransitioningawayfrommanufacturingactivitiestowardsserviceactivities
5. LaborMarketCharacteristicso Growthinlowwageservicesectorjobso Althoughunemploymentrateshavefallen,underemploymentrates
haveremainedstubbornlyhigho Householdshavehighratesofbeingmulti-jobholders,selfemployed,
andemployedbysmallbusinesses6. InternationalTrade
o PlaysasignificantroleintheMaineeconomy7. SocioeconomicIssues
o Mainehasahighrateofimpoverishedchildrenandpeopleneedingassistance
o Drugabuseinontherise8. BusinessClimateIssues
o Mainehasseriousburdenstoovercome,butalsohassignificantadvantagesalreadyinplace
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page2
1.EconomicMomentumandOutlook
1.1MAINEECONOMICINDICATORS
• RealGrossDomesticProducto Increased1.0%inthesecondquarterof2015
• PersonalIncomeo Grew3.5%inthefirstthreequartersof2015
• WageandSalaryIncomeo Grewover3.3%inthefirstthreequartersof2015
• Employmento Mainehasrecoveredabout23,000jobssince2008
• Unemploymento Unemploymentrateisnowabout4%;downfromover8%
1.2FORECAST
Calendar Years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wage & Salary Employment (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Personal Income (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.3 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.3
Wage and Salary Income (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6
CPI (Annual Percentage Change) CEFC Forecast 11/2015 1.6 0.0 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.3 CEFC Forecast 02/2016 1.6 0.1 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.3
ConsensusEconomicForecastingCommission(February1,2016)
• Forecastcallsforcontinuedmildgrowth
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page3
2.EconomicActivity
2.1GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT
• MEGDPin2014was$54.3billionandranked46thintheUS• MEGDPin2004was$44.6billionandranked42ndintheUS
DataSource:BEA
• MERealGDPin2014contracted0.1%,theUSGDPexpanded2.2%• CompoundAnnualGrowthRateofRealGDP:2004-2014
o ME:-0.3o US:1.3
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page4
2.2VALUEADDEDECONOMICACTIVITYRealGPD/employment=valueofoutputperworker
• Maineranks48inthenation(followedbyVermontandMontana)• Relative value added economic activity representsMaine’s competitiveness
tootherstates
CT
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page5
2.3PERCAPITALPERSONALINCOMEPerCapitalPersonalIncomeincludesothersourcesofincomethatareunrelatedtooutput(i.e.,capitalgains,interest,rent,andtransferpayments)
PERCAPITAPERSONALINCOME20142014:
o ME$40,745;US$46,049 MEShareofU.S.o ME3%growth;US3.6%(nominal)o MEranked33inthecountryo MEis88%oftheU.S.
2004:
o ME$31,762o MEranked28inthecountry
Maine’sPerCapitaPersonalIncomeisnotkeepingpacewiththerestofthenation.
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page6
2.4EMPLOYMENT
• Foureconomicgrowthperiods:o 1980’s:Maineoutpacedthenationo Late1990’s:Mainematchedthenationo Early2000’s:Maineunderperformedo Currently:Maineunderperforms
• Threeeconomicdeclines:o Early1990’s:drasticforMEandUSo Early2000’s:mildo 2008-10:drasticforMEandUS
• Mainehasnotmadeupforthelossinjobsfromthepeakin2008• Maine’semploymentisnotgrowingatthepaceofthenation• Maine’s“LOSTDECADE”:2000-Present
AstructuralchangeinMaine…adisconnectbetweenincomeandemployment(causedbydemographics,technology,competition,andtransitiontowardsservices)
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page7
3. DemographicTrends3.1UNDERLYINGTRENDS
The prime working-age population is declining… and we’re already the oldest state in the nation
(projected population change by age group, 2010 to 2020)
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Proj
ecte
d N
et P
opul
atio
n Ch
ange
We no longer have positive natural change, a trend that is expected to worsen as baby boomers advance in age.
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,0001
95
0
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
Natural Change (right scale)
Births (left scale)
Deaths (left scale)
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page8
• Thoseofworkingagewillhavetosupportalargernumberofpeoplenotintheworkforce
3.2REGIONALIMPLICATIONS
• Maine’spopulationhastheoldestmedianageinthecountry;42.7years• Severalcountiesexperiencesignificantdeclines:Hancock,Lincoln,and
Piscataquis• TheagingofMaine’spopulationwillplacecontinuedpressureon:
o Laborforcegapso Healthandpublicserviceso Statebudgets
Observed Total Percent Change2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2010-2030
Androscoggin 107,675 110,410 112,765 114,848 116,622 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 8.3%Aroostook 71,723 70,883 70,059 69,125 67,923 -1.2% -1.2% -1.3% -1.7% -5.3%Cumberland 281,386 284,273 286,850 288,910 290,101 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 3.1%Franklin 30,711 30,501 30,163 29,779 29,337 -0.7% -1.1% -1.3% -1.5% -4.5%Hancock 54,360 53,106 51,760 50,323 48,745 -2.3% -2.5% -2.8% -3.1% -10.3%Kennebec 122,131 121,675 121,085 120,238 118,930 -0.4% -0.5% -0.7% -1.1% -2.6%Knox 39,705 40,280 40,818 41,252 41,516 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 4.6%Lincoln 34,379 33,143 31,888 30,597 29,158 -3.6% -3.8% -4.0% -4.7% -15.2%Oxford 57,739 57,514 57,189 56,774 56,194 -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -1.0% -2.7%Penobscot 153,838 153,750 155,081 156,350 157,493 -0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 2.4%Piscataquis 17,545 16,956 16,366 15,753 15,091 -3.4% -3.5% -3.7% -4.2% -14.0%Sagadahoc 35,205 35,157 35,011 34,772 34,435 -0.1% -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% -2.2%Somerset 52,233 51,642 50,922 50,069 49,008 -1.1% -1.4% -1.7% -2.1% -6.2%Waldo 38,801 38,763 38,582 38,224 37,662 -0.1% -0.5% -0.9% -1.5% -2.9%Washington 32,798 32,472 32,083 31,637 31,065 -1.0% -1.2% -1.4% -1.8% -5.3%York 197,150 199,299 200,988 202,171 202,471 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 2.7%Maine 1,327,379 1,329,823 1,331,607 1,330,821 1,325,751 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -0.1%
Projections Percent change from previous period
6
Town projections use linear regression analysis to estimate a constant rate of growth for each town’s share of their county population between 1990 and 2010 or 2000 and 2010, whichever historical time period produces the regression with the slope closest to zero. This growth rate is then extrapolated into the future, using county population projections to project the population for each town in 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030. The town population projections thus rest on the assumption (among many others, including those upon which the county population projections are based) that relative growth rates of towns in a given county will continue into the future. Projections Due to recent population trends, the projections show most counties declining in population over the next two decades. Only four counties are projected to see population increase between 2010 and 2015: Androscoggin, Cumberland, Knox, and York. By 2030, these four counties plus Penobscot, which begins seeing population growth following 2015, are the only ones to have experienced population growth compared to 2010. When the counties are aggregated to a statewide level, Maine is projected to grow through 2020, after which point the population is expected to decline. As discussed earlier, these projections are highly dependent on current life expectancy and migration rates. Increases in life expectancy and in-migration could result in higher population counts in the future. By 2030, the baby boomers will be between 66 and 84 years old. The population pyramids below compare the 2010 population with the 2030 population projection. As the baby boomers continue to age, the population pyramid will become top-heavy, with a larger elderly population and smaller youth population. In addition, because women statistically live longer than men, Maine’s female-to-male ratio will increase over time.
2010
Population Pyramids of Maine
2030Percent of Total Population
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 - 45 - 9
10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 8485+
Male FemaleMale Female
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Male Female
Baby Boomers
Baby Boomers
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page9
3.3LABORMARKETIMPLICATIONS
• Givendemographictrendsandcurrentlaborforceparticipationratesforvariousagegroups,employmentgrowthmanynotfullyregainallthejobslostsince2008
• Couldconstrainfutureeconomicgrowth
Based on our age structure and rates of labor force attachment among age groups, it will be difficult to meet
the CEFC’s April jobs forecast
580,000
590,000
600,000
610,000
620,000
630,000Ja
n 00
Jan
01Ja
n 02
Jan
03Ja
n 04
Jan
05Ja
n 06
Jan
07Ja
n 08
Jan
09Ja
n 10
Jan
11Ja
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Jan
13Ja
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Jan
15Ja
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Jan
17Ja
n 18
Jan
19Ja
n 20
Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
CEFC April Forecast
Alternative Based on Population and Participation by Age Group
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page10
4.MANUFACTURING• ThedeclineinemploymentwithasteadyGDPcontributionisadirectresultof
hightechnologyautomation–alsoknownaslaborsavingtechnology-whichisnecessarytoremaincompetitive
• SomeofMaine’straditionalindustries(paper,leather,andtextiles)arebeingreplacedwithnewemergingindustries(electronics)
Phone (207) 623-7900 TTY 1-800-794-1110 FAX (207) 287-2947 www.maine.gov/labor/cwri
Page 2 of 10
40
50
60
70
80
90
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Jobs
in T
hous
ands
e
Mill
ions
Manufacturing gross domestic product was little changed while the number of jobs fell 37 percent between 2000 and 2011
(GDP adjusted for inflation)
Gross Domestic Product Jobs
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
0.4%
0.6%
1.1%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
2.8%
2.9%
3.9%
4.1%
5.8%
8.1%
9.6%
12.4%
12.7%
14.1%
15.2%
0.7%
2.4%
1.9%
2.0%
1.7%
4.9%
5.3%
1.5%
4.0%
3.7%
2.5%
7.4%
7.7%
11.8%
8.7%
34.9%
1.0%
Primary Metals
Electrical Equipment, Appliance, &Components
Furniture & Related Products
Printing & Related Support Activities
Nonmetallic Mineral Products
Textile Mills & Textile Product Mills
Apparel & Leather and AlliedProducts
Miscellaneous
Machinery
Plastics & Rubber Products
Chemicals
Wood Products
Fabricated Metal Products
Transportation Equipment
Food & Beverage & Tobacco Products
Paper
Computer & Electronic Products
While there was little change in manufacturing GDP between 2000 and 2010, industry shares changed
(percent share of manufacturing GDP, sorted by 2010 share)
2000 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
ManufacturingwagesinMaineare19.5%
higherthannon-manufacturingwages(2013)
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page11
5.LABORMARKETCHARACTERISTICS5.1EMPLOYMENTANDWAGES
Maine Employment and Wages
2012
Industry Description
Average Employment
Average Wages
Total - All Ownerships 583,193 38,601 Total - Private 486,557 38,075 Goods-Producing 82,618 46,823 Natural Resources and Mining 6,303 35,594 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 6,109 35,037 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 194 53,107 Construction 25,592 42,436 Manufacturing 50,723 50,432 Durable Goods Manufacturing 27,064 50,363 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 23,660 50,512 Service-Providing 403,939 36,285 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 117,275 31,600 Retail Trade 81,209 24,423 Transportation and Warehousing 14,978 36,565 Utilities 1,628 74,325 Information 7,882 44,173 Financial Activities 30,029 55,821 Education and Health Services 112,347 41,063 Leisure and Hospitality 61,620 17,219 Other Services 16,533 27,960 Unclassified 77 60,311 Total Gov't 96,636 41,253 Total - Federal Gov't 14,462 66,889 Total - State Gov't 23,474 40,115 Total - Local Gov't 58,699 35,392
• Maine’semploymentisconcentratedintheservice-providingindustriesandnotinthehigherpayinggoods-producingindustries
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page12
5.2EMPLOYMENTCHANGESANDLOSES
Changesinjobs:Dec2007to2012(MDOL)
• Maine’seconomycontinuestoshiftawayfromthegoods-producingindustriesandintothelowerpayingservice-providingindustries
5.3UNEMPLOYMENT
• Participationratesarefalling• Laborforceisfalling
Jobs in labor-intensive sectors involved in making, moving, or selling products are way down. Gains have primarily been in human capital
intensive sectors. Many displaced workers do not have the education or experience to qualify for jobs in growing sectors. This
mismatch between job seeker qualifications and needs of hiring employers is an impediment that should be considered when
forecasting job growth. (Change in jobs, Dec 2007 to present)
-9,000
-5,100 -5,000 -3,900
-2,600 -1,700 -1,200 -800 -100
0 1,500
3,400 4,000 4,800 M
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Cons
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Oth
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Nat
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Educ
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Leisu
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Hos
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Prof
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Busin
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Svcs
US ME
Relatedtoanagingworkforce
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page13
• Unemploymentiscenteredontheyounganduneducated• Educationisthekeytoemploymentandeconomicgrowth
…Unemployment rates only reflect part of non-employment. Those without post-secondary education are less likely to be
in the labor force, as are those under 25 and over 55 (Jobless people not looking for work are not in the labor force)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Shar
e of
Pop
ulat
ion
Age
25+
in 2
011
Not in Labor Force Unemployed Employed
Unemployment is highest among those without post-secondary education and young people…
(2011 average unemployment rates in Maine)
9.0% 7.0%
13.9%
8.9% 6.7%
2.8%
20.5%
16.2%
8.5% 6.3% 6.6%
4.6% 5.5%
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page14
5.4UNDEREMPLOYMENTRATES5.5SMALLBUSINESSES
• Smallbusinesses(<500employees)represent97%ofallemployersandemploy58.7%ofallprivate-sectorworkers
• Onaverage2,000newbusinessesareestablishedeachyear;withonly50%ofthemsurvivingafterfiveyears
UnderemploymentRates
2006 2010 2013Q2US 8.20% 16.70% 14.30%ME 8.20% 15.20% 14.20%
Employmentsituationisinsufficientinsomeimportantwayfortheworker,forexampleholdingapart-timejobdespitethedesireforfull-timework.
Currently12.0%11.9%
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page15
5.6MULTIPLE-JOBHOLDERS
• ManyMaineworkersholdmultiplejobs–eitherbychoiceornecessity–atalmosttwicethenationalrate
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page16
5.7SELF-EMPLOYMENT
• Maineismorereliantontheself-employedthanisthenation
Page 1 of 4
RReesseeaarrcchh BBrriieeff Center for Workforce Research and Information
August 2011
Self-Employment in Maine Self-employment is an important source of jobs in Maine. About 66,000 workers said their primary job was unincorporated self-employment in 2010, accounting for an estimated 10.3 percent of employed residents. Nationally, the unincorporated self-employed accounted for seven percent of total employment in 2010. The Maine rate of self-employment ranged between 10 and 12 percent in the 2000s, well above the national rate.
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Maine unincorporated self-employment rates well above national rates
(self-employment as percent of total employment)
U.S. Maine
Published estimates of self-employment for Maine from the Current Population Survey (CPS) include only total counts of the unincorporated self-employed from 2000 to 2010. Unpublished (CPS) and American Community Survey (ACS) data in this brief comes from the Integrated Census Public Use Microdata Series. These data are subject to sampling error and detailed estimates must be viewed with caution.
The incorporated self-employed are counted as wage and salary workers in published employment estimates since they are legally employees of their own business. According to unpublished CPS data, incorporated self-employment in Maine accounted for a little over 4 percent of total employment in 2010.
SELF-EM PLOYMEN T H AS DECLINED SLI GH TLY While self-employment rates move up and down, over the course of several years the official unincorporated rate has declined slightly. Between 1994 and 2000 the rate of unincorporated self-employment in Maine averaged 11.8 percent compared to 10.3 percent for 2001 to 2010. The incorporated self-employment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent.
11.8%
3.5%
10.3%
3.5%
Unincorporated self-employed Incorporated self-employed
The Maine self-employment rate shifted downward in the 2000s
1994-2000 2001-2010
Phone (207) 623-7900 TTY 1-800-794-1110 FAX (207) 287-2947 www.maine.gov/labor/cwri
Page 4 of 4
While the self-employed are in a variety of occupations, management, professional, and related, and construction, extraction, maintenance, and repair occupations accounted for 50 percent of the self-employed, reflecting industry concentration.
Over 40 percent of those employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining; about 30 percent of construction workers; and almost 30 percent of the workers in other services, which contains a variety of industries such as barber shops and shoe repair, were self-employed.
Maine Self-Employment Rates, 2007-2009 AverageIndustry Rate(%)
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting, and Mining 40.9Construction 30.0Manufacturing 3.3Wholesale Trade 4.7Retail Trade 4.6Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 5.4Information 4.9Financial Activities 7.2Professional and Business Services 17.3Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Services 4.2Leisure and Hospitality Service 5.5Other Services 29.1
Major occupations with the highest self-employment rates were farming, fishing, forestry and logging (46 percent) and construction (24 percent).
4.9%
5.5%
7.4%
11.6%
23.9%
46.4%
Sales and Office
Production, Transportation, and Material Moving
Management, Professional, and Related
Service
Construction, Extraction, Maintenance, and Repair
Farming, Fishing, Forestry, and Logging
Almost 50 percent of farming, fishing, forestry, and logging workers were self-employed
(2007-2009 average)
IN SUMM ARY Nearly one in seven Maine workers were self-employed in 2009, either incorporated or unincorporated, compared to about one in nine nationally. While a slight decline in self-employment was recorded during the sluggish labor market of the 2000s, the self-employed remain an important part of the Maine economy.
Source: All unpublished CPS and ACS data developed using the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, Version 5.0 (Machine-readable database). Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2010.
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page17
6.INTERNATIONALTRADE
• Exportsrepresentabout6%ofMaine’seconomy• Maine’slargestexportsarepulpandpapertoCanadaandsemiconductorsto
Malaysia• Foreign-ownedcompaniesplayasignificantroleinMaine’seconomy
$156$$
$7,900$$
$3,900$$
$1,100$$
$1,000$$
$900$$
Other$$
Manufacturing$
Finance$&$Insurance$
Wholesale$Trade$
Prof.,$Sci.$&$Tech.$Services$
Informakon$
ForeignIOwned$Companies$Employ$a$Total$of$30,400$Maine$Workers$Across$Many$Industries$
!
FOREIGN$INVESTMENT$IN$MAINE$CREATES$JOBS$
Foreign6owned!companies!invest!significant!amounts!of!capital!to!open!or!expand!facilities!in!Maine!every!year.!ForeignIowned$companies$from$around$the$world$employ$tens$of$thousands$of$workers!in!Maine,!including:!
• 7,200$by$companies$based$in$Canada$
$
• 2,200$by$companies$based$in$Switzerland$$
• 1,900$by$companies$based$in$Germany$$
• 1,800$by$companies$based$in$the$United$Kingdom$
$
• 1,000$by$companies$based$in$Japan$
Selected$ForeignIOwned$Companies$Employing$Workers$in$Maine$!
Company$ $ $ $ Industry$$$ $$ $ $ $ $$$$$$$$Country!Boralex! Power!Distribution!Services! Canada!Dragon!Products!Company! Environmental!Consulting!Services! Spain!Holiday!Inn! Hotel!Services! United!Kingdom!JWT!BOOM! Advertising!Services! United!Kingdom!McCain!Foods!USA! Food!Product!Manufacturing! Canada!Onesteel!Recycling!Inc.! Steel!Product!Manufacturing! Australia!Portland!Natural!Gas!Transmission! Power!Distribution!Services! Canada!Rumford!Power! Power!Generation! Canada!Sappi!Fine!Paper!North!America! Paper!Manufacturing! South!Africa!Stantec,!Inc.! Architecture,!Engineering!&!Design!Services! Canada!TD!Bank! Financial!Services! Canada!Willis!North!America!Inc.! Insurance!Services! United!Kingdom!
$ Contact:$David!Thomas,!Business!Roundtable,!202.496.3262,[email protected]$!
www.brt.org/trade!
• Maine’s!top!export!market!for!goods!and!services!is!Canada.!Other!leading!markets!include!Malaysia!and!China.!
!
• Among!Maine’s!top!export!markets!for!goods,!Malaysia$has!grown$the!fastest!at$24$percent$per$year!since!2002.!Exports!to!Finland!grew!by$21$percent$per$year,!while!exports!to!Germany!grew!by$14$percent$per$year.!!
• Maine’s!goods$exports$have$grown$two$and$a$half$times$faster$than$state$GDP!since!2002.!The!average!annual!export!growth!during!this!period!was!7.6!percent,!while!the!average!annual!state!GDP!growth!was!2.9!percent.!!
• Goods!exports!accounted!for!6.5$percent$of$Maine’s$state$GDP$in!2011.!!
MAINE$COMPANIES$EXPORT$THROUGHOUT$THE$WORLD$
CANADA$Merchandise!Exports:!$1.2!billion$Services!Exports:!$144!million!
$
MALAYSIA$Merchandise!Exports:!$467!million$
Services!Exports:!$4.9!million!$
CHINA$Merchandise!Exports:!$247!million$Services!Exports:!$55.3!million!
$
In!2012,!Maine!companies!sold!their!products!in!187$international$markets.!!!
Top$Export$Markets*$!
SOUTH$KOREA$Merchandise!Exports:!$75.7!million$Services!Exports:!$35.6!million!
$
BELGIUM$Merchandise!Exports:!$63.3!million$
Services!Exports:!$18.7!million!$
JAPAN$Merchandise!Exports:!$126!million$Services!Exports:!$95.8!million!
$
$ Contact:$David!Thomas,!Business!Roundtable,!202.496.3262,[email protected]$!
www.brt.org/trade!
*Goods#data#are#for#2012;#services#data#are#for#2011#
MAINE$BUSINESSES$GROW$WITH$EXPORTS$
Maine!ranked!46th!in!the!United!States!in!goods$exports!in!2012,$with!an!estimated!value!of$$3.0$billion,!and!45th!in!services$exports,!with!an!estimated!value!of!$1.2$billion!in!2011.!Large!companies!account!for!59!percent!of!the!value!of!Maine’s!merchandise!exports,!with!the!rest!provided!by!small6!and!medium6sized!enterprises!(SMEs).!
Top$Goods$Exports,$2012$• Pulp,!Paper!&!Paperboard:!$604!million!• Semiconductors!&!Components:!$503!million!• Fish!&!Other!Marine!Products:!$292!million!• Aerospace!Products!&!Parts:!$269!million!• Timber!&!Logs:!$163!million!!Top$Services$Exports,$2011$• Travel:!$530!million!• Insurance:!$82.6!million!• Industrial!Processes!Royalties:!$79.6!million!!
Leading$Export$Products$!Paper!Products!(including!pulp!and!paperboard)!was!Maine’s!leading!export!category!in!2012,!accounting!for!21.4!percent!of!total!merchandise!exports.!
• Maine!ranks$among$the$top$20$state$exporters$in$nine$industries,!including!second!in!timber!and!logs!($163!million),!fifth!in!fish!and!other!marine!products!($292!million),!11th!in!pulp,!paper!and!paperboard!($604!million),!and!12th!in!prepared!seafoods!($2.3!million).!
!
• !While!Maine!is!America’s$43rd$largest$exporter!of!agricultural$products,!it!ranks!among!the!top!10!exporters!of!aquaculture$products,!berries,!and!potatoes.!
!
• One!of!Maine’s!fastest!growing!export!categories!is!other$fabricated$metals,!which!has!increased!by!19!percent!per!year!since!2002.!In!2012,!exports!of!these!products!reached!$43.0!million.!
$1,196$$
$151$$
No.$of$SME$$$Exporters$
No.$of$Large$Company$Exporters$
89$Percent$of$Maine$Exporters$Are$SmallI$or$MediumISized$Companies$
$ Contact:$David!Thomas,!Business!Roundtable,!202.496.3262,[email protected]$!
www.brt.org/trade!
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page18
7.SocioeconomicIssues7.1PUBICHEALTH
2008 MAINE STATE PROFILE of SELECTED PUBLIC HEALTH INDICATORSMaine Center for Disease Control and Prevention/DHHS
MORE DEMOGRAPHICS:Percent and Count
DISTRICT COMPARISONS
Aroostook± Marginof Error
Central± Margin of Error
Cumberland± Margin of Error
Downeast± Margin of Error
Midcoast± Margin of Error
Penquis± Margin of Error
Western± Margin of Error
York± Margin of Error
MAINEState± Margin of Error
UNITEDSTATES
Median Annual Household Income [2004]
$ 32,629 $ 36,147 $ 49,870 $ 33,834 $ 41,690 $ 34,717 $ 36,670 $ 48,363 $ 41,287 $ 44,334
Families Living in Poverty (all ages, percent) [2004]
14.9(±0.3)
10,918
13.1(±0.2)
22,497
9.0(±0.1)
24,708
12.6(±0.2)
10,943
10.7 (±0.2)
16,142
13.2(±0.2)
21,715
12.4(±0.2)
23,915
9.0(±0.1)
17,963
11.3(±0.1)
148,80111.5
Children on Free or Reduced Lunch Program (percent of enrolled school children) [2005]
47.7(±1.2)
5,551
41.0(±0.8)
11,613
25.9(±0.5)
10,483
41.9(±1.1)
5,037
35.9(±0.8)
7,471
39.1(±0.8)
10,068
45.8(±0.7)
13,466
27.6(±0.7)
7,547
36.4(±0.3)
71,23617.5
Adults with Lifetime Educational Attainment Less Than High School (percent) [2000]
23.1(±0.4)
11,868
16.1(±0.3)
18,378
9.8(±0.1)
17,900
15.3(±0.3)
9,185
13.0 (±0.2)
13,146
14.9 (±0.2)
16,073
18.6(±0.2)
23,561
13.5(±0.2)
17,177
14.6(±0.1)
127,419
9.4(±0.1)
Single-Parent Households with Children <18 years (percent) [2000]
7.7 (±0.3)
2,323
10.4 (±0.2)
7,007
8.4 (±0.2)
9,117
8.8 (±0.3)
3,157
9.0 (±0.2)
5,372
9.5 (±0.2)
6,197
10.4 (±0.2)
7,887
9.1 (±0.2)
6,788
9.2 (±0.1)
47,8487.2
Householders ≥ 65 Living Alone (percent) [2000]
13.1 (±0.4)
3,977
10.5 (±0.2)
7,145
10.2 (±0.2)
11,015
12.2 (±0.3)
4,386
11.0 (±0.4)
6,549
10.4 (±0.2)
6,829
10.9 (±0.2)
8,317
9.7 (±0.2)
7,233
10.7 (±0.1)
55,4519.2
People Who Speak a Language Other Than English (percent of those >5 years old) [2000]
24.1 (±0.3)
16,880
6.8 (±0.1)
10,735
5.9 (±0.1)
14,888
4.3 (±0.1)
3,498
3.5 (±0.1)
4,798
4.4 (±0.1)
6,818
11.1 (±0.2)
19,771
9.4 (±0.1)
16,578
7.8(±0.1)
82,51217.9
Adults With a Disability (percent) [2006]
24.6 (±7.3)
6,924
23.0 (±4.3)
33,513
23.0 (±3.9)
35,594
28.5 (±4.3)
17,830
23.0 (±3.3)
25,250
30.4 (±4.9)
32,729
20.0 (±3.7)
38,280
21.8 (±4.3)
32,913
23.8 (±1.6)
237,91015.1
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JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page19
7.2DRUGABUSE
131motorvehiclerelateddeathsin2014
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page20
7.3PUBLICSUPPORT
Consistsof:
• Retirementanddisabilityinsurancebenefits• Medicalbenefits• Incomemaintenancebenefits• Unemploymentinsurancecompensation• Veterans’benefits
Drivenbysocio-economicneedsandanagingpopulation
Page 4
Quarterly economic Report
First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth First Quarter 2013Growth October 2013Personal Income in Maine
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JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page21
8.BusinessClimateIssues8.1HEALTHCARECOSTS
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JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page22
8.2EnergyCosts
• Amongthestatesin2011,Mainewasrankedtenthforthehighestcostofenergy–measuredbytheexpenditurespercapita(U.S.Dept.ofEnergy)
8.3TaxBurden
2013 State Business Tax Climate Index Ranks and Component Tax Ranks
State Overall
Rank Corporate Tax Rank
Individual Income
Tax Rank Sales Tax
Rank
Unemployment Insurance Tax
Rank
Property Tax Rank
Connecticut 40 35 31 30 31 50 Maine 30 41 27 10 32 39 Massachusetts 22 33 15 17 49 47 New Hampshire 7 48 9 1 42 43 Rhode Island 46 42 37 25 50 46 Vermont 47 43 47 14 22 48 Source: Tax Foundation. OVERALL:
• Mainedoesnothaveacompetitivebusinessclimategivenitsharshwinters,distancetomarket,transportationcosts,inadequateinternet,highhealthcarecosts,highenergycosts,andarelativehightaxburden
• However,Mainedoeshaveadvantagesinworkethic,affordablehousing,accessibleairandseaports,andamajorresearchuniversity
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page23
PossibleWaystoEnergizeMaine’sEconomy:(Groupdiscussion…)
• CreativeEconomy/Innovation• LongevityEconomy• UniversityR&D• EducationalAttainment• DowntownRevitalization• AlternativeEnergy/Conservation• FarmtoTableFoodSustainability/FoodSecurity• IncreasedValue-AddedEconomicActivities/Entrepreneurship• ImprovedBusinessClimate• SupportSmallBusinesses/Self-employed• PromoteExports• RevitalizeManufacturing• MigrationandImmigration• • • •
JamesBreece February2016TheMaineEconomy Page24
NOTES:Disclaimer:OpinionsexpressedinthisdocumentaremineanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheUniversityofMaine.Manyofthegraphsanddatatablesaretheworksofothersandarenotpresentedhereasoriginalworkbyme.Otherwisenoted,graphsanddataarepublicallyavailableontheInternetandweregeneratedbytheMaineDepartmentofLabor,Maine’sOfficeofFiscalandProgramReview,U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,MaineDevelopmentFoundation,MaineCenterforDiseaseControlandPrevention/DHHS,U.S.SmallBusinessAdministration,WallStreetJournal,TaxFoundation,BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BusinessRoundtable,andMaine’sOfficeofPolicyandManagement.IcompiledthegraphsfortheGDPIndex,EmploymentIndexandValueAddedEconomicActivity.