Analisa Teknikal - Intermediate - April 14.pptx

8/11/2019 Analisa Teknikal - Intermediate - April 14.pptx

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Objective

1. Pattern

1. Candlestick pattern

2. Chart pattern

2. Technical indicators (consist of 3 elements:

definition, componentsand function)

1. Trend indicators

1. Moving Average

2. Bollinger Bands

3. ADMI

4. CCI

5. Parabolic SAR

6. Standard Deviation

7. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

8. Envelope

2. Oscillator

1. RSI

2. MACD

3. Stochastic4. OsMA

5. William % range

6. ATR

3. Bill Williams

1. Accelerator oscillator

2. Fractals

3. Alligator

4. Awesome oscillator

5. Market facilitation index

3. Technical tools

1. Trend line and channel2. Andrew pitchfork

3. Fibonacci

1. Fan

2. Time zone

3. Arcs

4. Retracement

5. Expansion

4. Gann

1. Line

2. Fan

3. Grid

4. 3 Steps to design trading system

5. Trading systems examples

1. Simple

2. Complex

6. Trading Management

1. Risk management

2. Money management

3. Trading psychology


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Candlestick

&Patterns

Dasar pola harga

candlestick dan pola harga

1.


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Bullish

CandleWhite or Bright Real BodyHigh

Close

Open

Low

Bearish

CandleBlack or Dark Real Body

Low

Close

Open

High

RealBody

Upper Shadow

Lower Shadow


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Long Days

Long real body

1. Strong buy/sell

2. Midpoint used as support/resistance

BasicCandlestick

Short Days

Short Days

1. Small real body than shadow, colour not important.

2. Prior trend weak and considered as days of indecision


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Short day

Long day Euro

Spinning


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High Wave

Small real body, with long tails

1. Colour not imp.

2. Long shadows

3. Indicate of confusion

BasicCandlestick

Doji

No Real Body

1. Open and close are equal

or relative the same

2. Considered as indecision,

waiting for other trigger


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Confusion

Japanese intervention fears,

market showed lot of confusion


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Single Candlestick

1. Lower Shadow 2X length of Real Body

2. Body at upper end, colour unimportant

3. No/very small upper shadow

4. Confirmed with a strong bullish day

Hammer Shooting Star

1. Upper Shadow 2X length of Real Body

2. Body at lower end, colour unimportant

3. No/very small lower shadow

4. Confirmed with a strong bearish day


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Couple CandlestickEngulfing Dark Cloud Cover Piercing Line

1. Uptrend evident

2. Session opens >

prior high

3. Bearish body closes

> 50% into bullish body

1. Downtrend evident

2. Session opens 50% into bearish body

1. Large body wraps

around small body

2. Opposite colours

3. Up/Down trend

Taking power Reverse of sentiment Reverse of sentiment


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Triple CandlestickMorning Star Evening Star 3 White Soldiers 3 Black Crows

1. Three bullish bodys,

all of similar size

2. Prior trend is down

3. Each session opens

with recent body &

closes near high

1. Downtrend evident

2. Bearish session

is followed by

indecision.

3. Bulls close > 50%

into prior Bear body

1. Uptrend evident

2. Bullish session

is followed by

indecision.

3. Bears close > 50%

into prior Bull body

1. Three bearish bodys,

all of similar size

2. Prior trend is up

3. Each session opens

with recent body &

closes near lows

Upside reversal Downside reversal Uptrend Downtrend


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Price Pattern


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Double bottom

a c

Breakout

Target Price

b x

y

z


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Double top

a c

Breakout

Target Price

b x

y

z


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ABC-D

ac

Breakout

Target Price

b x

y

z

d


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H

SS

Target Price


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2. TechnicalIndicators & Oscillator

Moving average

Bollinger Bands

Average Directional Movement Index

Stochastic

Moving Average Directional Movement Index


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Parabolic Stop and ReverseStep = Poin AkselerasiMax. Step = Maksimum Poin

PSAR


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PSARGOLD

Interpretation

Trend

following

indicator.

Naik ketika

harga naik

Berbalik

ketika harga

berbalik

Uptrend

Downtrend

R

R

R


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Penggunaan

Sinyal Buy PSAR

Sinyal Sell PSAR


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Gold 15M


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Bollinger Bands

1. Middle band = MA periode 202. Upper band = Middle band + 2 standar deviasi

3. Lower band = Middle band -2 standar deviasi


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Indikator Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands, MA 20, STD 2

Middle Bands (MA 20)

Upper Band (+std 2)

Lower Band (-std 2)


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Average Directional Movement Index

ADMI


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Component

(+DI)garis yang mengukur kekuatan naiknya harga periode tertentu. (-DI)garis yang mengukur kekuatan turun nya harga periode tertentu.

(ADX)merupakan gabungan dari kedua garis (+DI dan -DI) yang di filter

dengan Moving Average untuk menghasilkan ukuran kekuatan trend.

+DI

- DI

ADX


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Function

+DI di atasDIBullish; +DI di bawahDIBearish

Sideway: ADX berada di bawah 20

Strong Uptrend: ADX bergerak naik ke atas 20

diikuti dengan kenaikan +DI, dan melemah ketikaADX ke bawah level 20 diikuti turunnya garis +DI.

Strong Downtrend: ADX bergerak naik ke atas 20

diikuti dengan kenaikan -DI, dan melemah ketika

ADX ke bawah level 20 diikuti turunnya garisDI.


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Stochastic


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Rules

Top & Bottom 70 (or 80) overbought

30 (or 20) oversold

Buy signal :

%K cross up %D when below area 30 dan the position(%K& %D) facing up.

Sell signal : %K cross down%D inarea 70, and both of them facing

down .

Divergence dan convergence: priceHH Stoch

priceLL Stoch


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Stochastic


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Stochastic


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Stochastic


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MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence


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Rules

Top & Bottom (zero line = netral) Getting high above() 0 is getting overbought and getting low below () 0 is

oversold

Buy signal : Line and signal cross above

Cross 0 area

Sinyal sell: Line dan signal cross down

Cross 0 area

Divergence dan convergence: PriceHH MACD

PriceLL MACD


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MACD

Bearish Divergen


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Bearish Divergen

HH - LH

Bullsih Divergen


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Bullsih Divergen

LL - HL


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MACD


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1. Apa trendyang paling kuat saat ini?

2. Ke harga berapa potensi koreksi?3. Seberapa jauh target?

1. Analisis


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1. Penggunaan Peak & Trough

2. Garis Trend ; Trendline3. Penggunaan indikator: Moving Average, ADX, dll..

Trend


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Trend Measurement

T

P

P

T

T

T

T T

T

T

P

P

P

P

P

PP


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Trend Measurement


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Trend Measurement

EMA 4 & 20


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Trend Measurement

EMA 50 & 200


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Fibonacci Ratio Use to predict the market movementEspecially in Elliott Wave Analysis

Trend naik atau turun, koreksi dan target pergerakan selanjutnya?

1. Fibonacci Correction/ Retracement untuk koreksi?

2. Fibonacci Expansion/ Projection untuk reli/ target?


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Fibonacci

Number & Ratio

1. Number : 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, dst..

2. Ratio : 38.2, 50, 61.8, 1, 1.618


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Predictioncomes from this simple question,

Where will the price move?

Correction Area

1st Targets Area


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FiboCorrection

Correction Area

F


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FiboExpansion/ Projection

Correction Area

1st Targets Area

F

2nd Targets Area


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menyusun sistem trading berdasarkan analisa teknikal

Sistem Trading


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1. Konsep & Aturan

2. Cek & Test3. Evaluasi

Langkah mudah


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1. Konsep & Aturan Lihat dan observasi grafik Temukan idenya!

Cari petunjuk Entri

Temukan tanda kegagalan dan Exit yang tepat

Ubah konsep menjadi aturan spesifik dan jelas


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Obervasi Perilaku Harga

T

P

P

T

T

T

T T

T

T

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

T

H


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Obervasi Perilaku Harga100

61.8

50

38.2

00

100

61.8

50

38.2

00

100

61.8

50.0

38.2

00.0

100

61.8

50.0

38.2

00.0

100

61.8

50.0

38.2

00.0 100.0

61.8

50.0

38.2

00.0

Koreksi biasanya:> dari 61,8%< dari 100%


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Finding the Concept!1.Pergerakan utama?2.Entri?3.Kegagalan?

> 61,8% < 100%

> 61,8% < 100%

> 61,8% < 100%

< 61,8%

> 61,8% < 100%

< 100%

Break

Break

Break

Break

Break

Break


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Finding the Entri!1.Pergerakan utama?2.Entri?3.Kegagalan?

Sell

stop

Sell

Sell

Sell

stop

Buy

stop

stop

stop

Buy

stop

F E


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Finding the Entri!1.Pergerakan utama?2.Entri?3.Kegagalan?

Sell

stop

Sell

stop

Sell

stop stop

Sell

stop

Sell

stop

Buy

F E


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Finding the Exit!

100.0

61.8

1.618

00.0

100.0

61.8

1.618

00.0

100.0

61.8

1.618

00.0

61.8

00.0

100.0

61.8

1.618

00.0

1.Equal / 100%?

2.61,8%?

A U


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Aturan UmumCari koreksi dari pergerakan utama

Entri @ 61.8% Correction

Stop @ 100% Correction

Target @ 100% Expansion/ Projection

A S f k


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Aturan Spesifik Terdapat higherlowdan higherhigh

Buypada koreksi 61.8%



Terdapat higherhighdan higherlow

Sellpada rebound 61.8%



Stop

Buy

Target

Stop

Sell

Target

C k T


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2. Cek dan TestIkuti aturan dan dan uji secara visual

Lakukan pada beberapa instrumen

Ubah aturan ke bahasa komputer*

Back & Forward Test

P


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PengujianAssume each rally is 100 pips"

Sell koreksi @ 70 pips

Stop 30 pips, Target 100 Pips

= + 100 pips

Breaking

the low

+100

pips

+100

pips -30

pips

Sell

Start here

Breaking

the high

Buy

Start here

P


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Pengujian1.Equal / 100%?

2.61,8%?

Breaking

the low

+100 pips

+100 pips

-30

pips

Sell

Start here

Breakingthe high

Buy

Start here -30

pips

Breaking

the low

Sell Start

here

(unfilled)

+100 pips

Breaking

the high

Buy

Start

here

Sell

E l h l


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3. Evaluasi hasil Profit factors

Average trade (win & loss)

Maximum intraday drawdown

P f F


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Profit Factor +100 x 3 posisi = 300

- 30 x 7 posisi = 210

Profit Factor = 1.4

A T d


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Average Trade3 posisi menguntungkan

2 posisi rugi

3:2

M


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Maximum Intraday Drawdown

Kerugian maksimum per posisi?

Kerugian maksimum per hari?

= 60 pips

N d S thi ?


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Need Something?

Remember !!!


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Moving Averages


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Price averages in a certain time frame

Moving Averages1. Smoothing the price movement

2. Provide trend reading with support & resistance3. Preliminary sign of trend reversal

4. Crossover as a confirmation

5. The longer the better

Using Mo ing A erage


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Using Moving Average

Breaking

the low

Sell

Start here


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BOLLINGER BAND

Strategi Trading


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Middle band = MA periode 20

Upper band = Middle band + 2 standar deviasi

Lower band = Middle band -2 standar deviasi

Bollinger Bands

I dik t B lli B d


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Indikator Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands, MA 20, STD 2

Middle Bands (MA 20)

Upper Band (+std 2)

Lower Band (-std 2)

Obser asi 1 Kontraksi & Ekspansi


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Observasi 1- Kontraksi & Ekspansi

Band mengalami penyempitan dan pengembangan

Penyempitan terjadi sebelum perubahan harga

Pengembangan terjadi sejalan dengan perubahan harga

Observasi 2 Support & Resistance


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Observasi 2- Support & Resistance

Standar Deviasi biasanya digunakan untuk mengukur

volatilitas

Band atas bisa digunakan untuk resisten, band bawah

sebagai support

Observasi 3 Periode MA


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Observasi 3- Periode MA

Semakin besar periode MA semakin lambat, konfirmasi sinyal lebih kuat

Semakin kecil periode MA semakin cepat, konfirmasi sinyal kurang kuat

Observasi 4 Std Deviasi


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Observasi 4Std Deviasi

Standar deviasi sesuai dengan periode MA

Semakin tinggi Std-D, semakin sulit di jangkau oleh harga, sebaliknya

Semakin rendah Std-D, semakin mudah dijangkau oleh harga

Observasi 5 ???


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Observasi 5???


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DAN KONDISI PASAR SAAT INI

Strategi Trading


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Strategi 1The Counter

Entri

Buy: Harga berhasil ditutup di

bawah lower band. Sell: Harga berhasil ditutup di

atas upper band.

Exit

Exit Buy: Harga berhasil ditutupdi atasmiddle band.

Exit Sell: Harga berhasil ditutup

di bawah middle band.


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Strategi 2The Follower

Entri

Buy: Harga berhasil membentuk

lowdi di atas upper band. Sell: Harga berhasil membentuk

highdi bawah lower band.

Exit

Exit Buy: Harga berhasilmembentuk high di di bawahupper band.

Sell: Harga berhasil membentuk

low di atas lower band.

Forex Aussie sistem 1


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Forex- Aussie sistem 1

Forex Aussie sistem 2


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Forex- Aussie sistem 2

Ekuiti RIMM sistem 1


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EkuitiRIMM sistem 1

Ekuiti RIMM sistem 2


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EkuitiRIMM sistem 2

Ekuiti China Mobile sistem 1


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EkuitiChina Mobile sistem 1

Ekuiti China Mobile sistem 2


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EkuitiChina Mobile sistem 2

Komoditi Emas sistem 1


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KomoditiEmas sistem 1

Komoditi Emas sistem 2


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KomoditiEmas sistem 2


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Pemahaman yang sama?

Dapat gambaran strategi dari teknikal?

Dapatkah diaplikasikan pada kondisipasar sekarang?

Pencapaian?


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Analisa Teknikal - Intermediate - April 14.pptx

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