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8/11/2019 Analisa Teknikal - Intermediate - April 14.pptx
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Objective
1. Pattern
1. Candlestick pattern
2. Chart pattern
2. Technical indicators (consist of 3 elements:
definition, componentsand function)
1. Trend indicators
1. Moving Average
2. Bollinger Bands
3. ADMI
4. CCI
5. Parabolic SAR
6. Standard Deviation
7. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
8. Envelope
2. Oscillator
1. RSI
2. MACD
3. Stochastic4. OsMA
5. William % range
6. ATR
3. Bill Williams
1. Accelerator oscillator
2. Fractals
3. Alligator
4. Awesome oscillator
5. Market facilitation index
3. Technical tools
1. Trend line and channel2. Andrew pitchfork
3. Fibonacci
1. Fan
2. Time zone
3. Arcs
4. Retracement
5. Expansion
4. Gann
1. Line
2. Fan
3. Grid
4. 3 Steps to design trading system
5. Trading systems examples
1. Simple
2. Complex
6. Trading Management
1. Risk management
2. Money management
3. Trading psychology
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Candlestick
&Patterns
Dasar pola harga
candlestick dan pola harga
1.
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Bullish
CandleWhite or Bright Real BodyHigh
Close
Open
Low
Bearish
CandleBlack or Dark Real Body
Low
Close
Open
High
RealBody
Upper Shadow
Lower Shadow
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Long Days
Long real body
1. Strong buy/sell
2. Midpoint used as support/resistance
BasicCandlestick
Short Days
Short Days
1. Small real body than shadow, colour not important.
2. Prior trend weak and considered as days of indecision
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Short day
Long day Euro
Spinning
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High Wave
Small real body, with long tails
1. Colour not imp.
2. Long shadows
3. Indicate of confusion
BasicCandlestick
Doji
No Real Body
1. Open and close are equal
or relative the same
2. Considered as indecision,
waiting for other trigger
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Confusion
Japanese intervention fears,
market showed lot of confusion
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Single Candlestick
1. Lower Shadow 2X length of Real Body
2. Body at upper end, colour unimportant
3. No/very small upper shadow
4. Confirmed with a strong bullish day
Hammer Shooting Star
1. Upper Shadow 2X length of Real Body
2. Body at lower end, colour unimportant
3. No/very small lower shadow
4. Confirmed with a strong bearish day
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Couple CandlestickEngulfing Dark Cloud Cover Piercing Line
1. Uptrend evident
2. Session opens >
prior high
3. Bearish body closes
> 50% into bullish body
1. Downtrend evident
2. Session opens 50% into bearish body
1. Large body wraps
around small body
2. Opposite colours
3. Up/Down trend
Taking power Reverse of sentiment Reverse of sentiment
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Triple CandlestickMorning Star Evening Star 3 White Soldiers 3 Black Crows
1. Three bullish bodys,
all of similar size
2. Prior trend is down
3. Each session opens
with recent body &
closes near high
1. Downtrend evident
2. Bearish session
is followed by
indecision.
3. Bulls close > 50%
into prior Bear body
1. Uptrend evident
2. Bullish session
is followed by
indecision.
3. Bears close > 50%
into prior Bull body
1. Three bearish bodys,
all of similar size
2. Prior trend is up
3. Each session opens
with recent body &
closes near lows
Upside reversal Downside reversal Uptrend Downtrend
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Price Pattern
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Double bottom
a c
Breakout
Target Price
b x
y
z
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Double top
a c
Breakout
Target Price
b x
y
z
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ABC-D
ac
Breakout
Target Price
b x
y
z
d
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H
SS
Target Price
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2. TechnicalIndicators & Oscillator
Moving average
Bollinger Bands
Average Directional Movement Index
Stochastic
Moving Average Directional Movement Index
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Parabolic Stop and ReverseStep = Poin AkselerasiMax. Step = Maksimum Poin
PSAR
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PSARGOLD
Interpretation
Trend
following
indicator.
Naik ketika
harga naik
Berbalik
ketika harga
berbalik
Uptrend
Downtrend
R
R
R
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Penggunaan
Sinyal Buy PSAR
Sinyal Sell PSAR
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Gold 15M
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Bollinger Bands
1. Middle band = MA periode 202. Upper band = Middle band + 2 standar deviasi
3. Lower band = Middle band -2 standar deviasi
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Indikator Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands, MA 20, STD 2
Middle Bands (MA 20)
Upper Band (+std 2)
Lower Band (-std 2)
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Average Directional Movement Index
ADMI
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Component
(+DI)garis yang mengukur kekuatan naiknya harga periode tertentu. (-DI)garis yang mengukur kekuatan turun nya harga periode tertentu.
(ADX)merupakan gabungan dari kedua garis (+DI dan -DI) yang di filter
dengan Moving Average untuk menghasilkan ukuran kekuatan trend.
+DI
- DI
ADX
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Function
+DI di atasDIBullish; +DI di bawahDIBearish
Sideway: ADX berada di bawah 20
Strong Uptrend: ADX bergerak naik ke atas 20
diikuti dengan kenaikan +DI, dan melemah ketikaADX ke bawah level 20 diikuti turunnya garis +DI.
Strong Downtrend: ADX bergerak naik ke atas 20
diikuti dengan kenaikan -DI, dan melemah ketika
ADX ke bawah level 20 diikuti turunnya garisDI.
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Stochastic
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Rules
Top & Bottom 70 (or 80) overbought
30 (or 20) oversold
Buy signal :
%K cross up %D when below area 30 dan the position(%K& %D) facing up.
Sell signal : %K cross down%D inarea 70, and both of them facing
down .
Divergence dan convergence: priceHH Stoch
priceLL Stoch
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Stochastic
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Stochastic
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Stochastic
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MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence
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Rules
Top & Bottom (zero line = netral) Getting high above() 0 is getting overbought and getting low below () 0 is
oversold
Buy signal : Line and signal cross above
Cross 0 area
Sinyal sell: Line dan signal cross down
Cross 0 area
Divergence dan convergence: PriceHH MACD
PriceLL MACD
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MACD
Bearish Divergen
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Bearish Divergen
HH - LH
Bullsih Divergen
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Bullsih Divergen
LL - HL
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MACD
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1. Apa trendyang paling kuat saat ini?
2. Ke harga berapa potensi koreksi?3. Seberapa jauh target?
1. Analisis
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1. Penggunaan Peak & Trough
2. Garis Trend ; Trendline3. Penggunaan indikator: Moving Average, ADX, dll..
Trend
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Trend Measurement
T
P
P
T
T
T
T T
T
T
P
P
P
P
P
PP
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Trend Measurement
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Trend Measurement
EMA 4 & 20
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Trend Measurement
EMA 50 & 200
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Fibonacci Ratio Use to predict the market movementEspecially in Elliott Wave Analysis
Trend naik atau turun, koreksi dan target pergerakan selanjutnya?
1. Fibonacci Correction/ Retracement untuk koreksi?
2. Fibonacci Expansion/ Projection untuk reli/ target?
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Fibonacci
Number & Ratio
1. Number : 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, dst..
2. Ratio : 38.2, 50, 61.8, 1, 1.618
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Predictioncomes from this simple question,
Where will the price move?
Correction Area
1st Targets Area
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FiboCorrection
Correction Area
F
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FiboExpansion/ Projection
Correction Area
1st Targets Area
F
2nd Targets Area
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menyusun sistem trading berdasarkan analisa teknikal
Sistem Trading
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1. Konsep & Aturan
2. Cek & Test3. Evaluasi
Langkah mudah
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1. Konsep & Aturan Lihat dan observasi grafik Temukan idenya!
Cari petunjuk Entri
Temukan tanda kegagalan dan Exit yang tepat
Ubah konsep menjadi aturan spesifik dan jelas
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Obervasi Perilaku Harga
T
P
P
T
T
T
T T
T
T
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
T
H
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Obervasi Perilaku Harga100
61.8
50
38.2
00
100
61.8
50
38.2
00
100
61.8
50.0
38.2
00.0
100
61.8
50.0
38.2
00.0
100
61.8
50.0
38.2
00.0 100.0
61.8
50.0
38.2
00.0
Koreksi biasanya:> dari 61,8%< dari 100%
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Finding the Concept!1.Pergerakan utama?2.Entri?3.Kegagalan?
> 61,8% < 100%
> 61,8% < 100%
> 61,8% < 100%
< 61,8%
> 61,8% < 100%
< 100%
Break
Break
Break
Break
Break
Break
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Finding the Entri!1.Pergerakan utama?2.Entri?3.Kegagalan?
Sell
stop
Sell
Sell
Sell
stop
Buy
stop
stop
stop
Buy
stop
F E
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Finding the Entri!1.Pergerakan utama?2.Entri?3.Kegagalan?
Sell
stop
Sell
stop
Sell
stop stop
Sell
stop
Sell
stop
Buy
F E
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Finding the Exit!
100.0
61.8
1.618
00.0
100.0
61.8
1.618
00.0
100.0
61.8
1.618
00.0
61.8
00.0
100.0
61.8
1.618
00.0
1.Equal / 100%?
2.61,8%?
A U
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Aturan UmumCari koreksi dari pergerakan utama
Entri @ 61.8% Correction
Stop @ 100% Correction
Target @ 100% Expansion/ Projection
A S f k
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Aturan Spesifik Terdapat higherlowdan higherhigh
Buypada koreksi 61.8%
Stop @ 100% Correction
Target @ 100% Expansion/ Projection
Terdapat higherhighdan higherlow
Sellpada rebound 61.8%
Stop @ 100% Correction
Target @ 100% Expansion/ Projection
Stop
Buy
Target
Stop
Sell
Target
C k T
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2. Cek dan TestIkuti aturan dan dan uji secara visual
Lakukan pada beberapa instrumen
Ubah aturan ke bahasa komputer*
Back & Forward Test
P
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PengujianAssume each rally is 100 pips"
Sell koreksi @ 70 pips
Stop 30 pips, Target 100 Pips
= + 100 pips
Breaking
the low
+100
pips
+100
pips -30
pips
Sell
Start here
Breaking
the high
Buy
Start here
P
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Pengujian1.Equal / 100%?
2.61,8%?
Breaking
the low
+100 pips
+100 pips
-30
pips
Sell
Start here
Breakingthe high
Buy
Start here -30
pips
Breaking
the low
Sell Start
here
(unfilled)
+100 pips
Breaking
the high
Buy
Start
here
Sell
E l h l
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3. Evaluasi hasil Profit factors
Average trade (win & loss)
Maximum intraday drawdown
P f F
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Profit Factor +100 x 3 posisi = 300
- 30 x 7 posisi = 210
Profit Factor = 1.4
A T d
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Average Trade3 posisi menguntungkan
2 posisi rugi
3:2
M
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Maximum Intraday Drawdown
Kerugian maksimum per posisi?
Kerugian maksimum per hari?
= 60 pips
N d S thi ?
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Need Something?
Remember !!!
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Moving Averages
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Price averages in a certain time frame
Moving Averages1. Smoothing the price movement
2. Provide trend reading with support & resistance3. Preliminary sign of trend reversal
4. Crossover as a confirmation
5. The longer the better
Using Mo ing A erage
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Using Moving Average
Breaking
the low
Sell
Start here
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BOLLINGER BAND
Strategi Trading
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Middle band = MA periode 20
Upper band = Middle band + 2 standar deviasi
Lower band = Middle band -2 standar deviasi
Bollinger Bands
I dik t B lli B d
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Indikator Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands, MA 20, STD 2
Middle Bands (MA 20)
Upper Band (+std 2)
Lower Band (-std 2)
Obser asi 1 Kontraksi & Ekspansi
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Observasi 1- Kontraksi & Ekspansi
Band mengalami penyempitan dan pengembangan
Penyempitan terjadi sebelum perubahan harga
Pengembangan terjadi sejalan dengan perubahan harga
Observasi 2 Support & Resistance
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Observasi 2- Support & Resistance
Standar Deviasi biasanya digunakan untuk mengukur
volatilitas
Band atas bisa digunakan untuk resisten, band bawah
sebagai support
Observasi 3 Periode MA
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Observasi 3- Periode MA
Semakin besar periode MA semakin lambat, konfirmasi sinyal lebih kuat
Semakin kecil periode MA semakin cepat, konfirmasi sinyal kurang kuat
Observasi 4 Std Deviasi
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Observasi 4Std Deviasi
Standar deviasi sesuai dengan periode MA
Semakin tinggi Std-D, semakin sulit di jangkau oleh harga, sebaliknya
Semakin rendah Std-D, semakin mudah dijangkau oleh harga
Observasi 5 ???
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Observasi 5???
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DAN KONDISI PASAR SAAT INI
Strategi Trading
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Strategi 1The Counter
Entri
Buy: Harga berhasil ditutup di
bawah lower band. Sell: Harga berhasil ditutup di
atas upper band.
Exit
Exit Buy: Harga berhasil ditutupdi atasmiddle band.
Exit Sell: Harga berhasil ditutup
di bawah middle band.
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Strategi 2The Follower
Entri
Buy: Harga berhasil membentuk
lowdi di atas upper band. Sell: Harga berhasil membentuk
highdi bawah lower band.
Exit
Exit Buy: Harga berhasilmembentuk high di di bawahupper band.
Sell: Harga berhasil membentuk
low di atas lower band.
Forex Aussie sistem 1
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Forex- Aussie sistem 1
Forex Aussie sistem 2
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Forex- Aussie sistem 2
Ekuiti RIMM sistem 1
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EkuitiRIMM sistem 1
Ekuiti RIMM sistem 2
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EkuitiRIMM sistem 2
Ekuiti China Mobile sistem 1
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EkuitiChina Mobile sistem 1
Ekuiti China Mobile sistem 2
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EkuitiChina Mobile sistem 2
Komoditi Emas sistem 1
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KomoditiEmas sistem 1
Komoditi Emas sistem 2
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KomoditiEmas sistem 2
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Pemahaman yang sama?
Dapat gambaran strategi dari teknikal?
Dapatkah diaplikasikan pada kondisipasar sekarang?
Pencapaian?
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