ANALYSES OF
VARIOUS MITIGATION
SCENARIOS AND
CONTRIBUTIONS FOR
MACEDONIA
Aleksandar Dedinec Verica Taseska-
Gjorgievska, Natasa Markovska,
Teodora Obradovic Grncarovska,
Neven Duic, Jordan Pop-Jordanov,
Research Center for energy and
Sustainable Development
Macedonian Acedemy of Sciences and
Arts
Introduction
Methodology
Definition of baseline and mitigation scenarios
Results
Conclusion
Содржина
Introduction
CO2 emissions has increased for 26% in
the period 1959 to 2014 (315 ppm to 398
ppm), temperature increase for 0.8 0C
compared to preindustrial level
Introduction
• Non-Annex I country under UNFCCC and a candidate for EU
membership
• Reflect different types of targets, different levels of ambition
(CO2)
– (1) EU scenarios - end-year type mitigation targets (compared to 1990)
– (2) QELRC (Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction
Commitment) scenarios e a wide range of cumulative targets for eight
years, relative to 1990 level and,
– (3) Baseline deviation scenarios e deviation compared to baseline
emission level
Macedonia
Methodology
• MARKAL model
Methodology
Methodology
• EU targets
• QELRC
• BAU
2021-28 2029-36 2037-44 2045-52
QELRC _Low +20% +10% 0% -10%
QELRC _MedLow +10% 0% -10% -20%
QELRC _Med 0% -10% -20% -30%
QELRC _MedHigh -10% -20% -30% -40%
QELRC _High -20% -30% -40% -50%
Methodology
Carbon pricing is introduced in all mitigation scenarios:
• until 2020: 0 EUR/tCO2
• 2021 – 2024: 15 EUR/tCO2
• 2025 – 2027: 20 EUR/tCO2
• 2028 – 2030: 25 EUR/tCO2
• 2030 – 2050: 30 EUR/tCO2
Results-Baseline
Comparison
Final Energy by Fuels
• Fuel switch in
industry from coal
to natural gas
• Increased share of
biofuels and
electricity in
transport
• Increased
utilization of RES
and natural gas in
residential and
commercial
106,000
107,000
108,000
109,000
110,000
111,000
112,000
113,000
114,000Baseline
Low
Medium
High
Final Energy Consumption (ktoe)
BAU
QELRC
EU
Comparison
Power Plant Capacity (MW)
1,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,9003,1003,300
Baseline
Low
Medium
High
Power Plant Capacity (MW)
BAU
QELRC
EU
Comparison
Electricity Generation & Import (GWh)
• Electricity generation from coal
PP replaced with gas PP
• More hydro
• Increased import to achieve the
QELRC
400,000420,000440,000460,000480,000500,000520,000540,000560,000
Baseline
Low
Medium
High
Electricity Generation & Import (GWh)
BAU
QELRC
EU
Comparison
Primary Energy Supply (ktoe)
• Fossil fuels are
replaced with
imported electricity to
achieve the QELRC
• Increased utilization
of RES on both
supply and demand
side
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000Baseline
Low
Medium
High
Primary Energy Supply (ktoe)
BAU
QELRC
EU
Comparison
Total Discounted System Costs
(2012M€)
50,000
50,500
51,000
51,500
52,000
52,500
53,000
Baseline
Low
Medium
High
Total Discounted System Costs (20012M€)
BAU
QELRC
EU
CO2 Emissions
•
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
kt
Year
Baseline
EU_Low
EU_Medium
EU_High
• Emission reduction by 41% in 2020 due to carbon price
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
kt
Year
Baseline
BAUdev_Low
BAUdev_Medium
BAUdev_High
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
kt
Year
Baseline
QELRC_Low
QELRC_MediumLow
QELRC_Medium
QELRC_MediumHigh
QELRC_High
Comparison
Cumulative CO2 Emissions (kt)
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
Baseline
Low
Medium
High
Cumulative CO2 Emissions (kt)
BAU
QELRC
EU
Comparative Assessment
Ambition level
Low Medium High
EU
Cumulative emissions (kt) 302,613 269,871 234,929
Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) 51,725 52,243 52,487
Incremental specific reduction cost (€/t) 2.70 4.53 4.85
QELRC
Cumulative emissions (kt) 345,878 320,961 285,950
Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) 51,338 51,521 52,092
Incremental specific reduction cost (€/t) 0.99 1.86 4.17
BAUdev
Cumulative emissions (kt) 347,519 340,113 300,290
Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) 51,550 51,809 52,945
Incremental specific reduction costs (€/t) 2.35 3.82 8.64
Colour code: good acceptable poor
Cumulative emissions (kt) <300,000 300,000 - 325,000 >325,000
Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) <51,600 51,600 - 52,000 >52,000
Incremental Specific reduction costs (€/t) <2.00 2.00 -4.00 >4.00
Conclusions
• The imposed targets can be realized in Macedonian
conditions.
• The power sector is the most important area for
mitigation action, implemented through:
– coal to gas switch (mainly due to the CO2 prices)
– intensified development of hydro and some wind and solar
power
• Higher ambition targets might challenge the security
of supply (considerable increase of the electricity
import after 2032, fully replacing the gas-fired electricity
by 2050)