Analysis of the effect of climate on plant pest and disease risks in Europe

Darren J. Kriticos

Critical Phytosanitary Risk Questions

Where (and when) are our emerging pest risks coming from? Countries Regions

Which pests are we at risk from? Species Sub-species or varieties

What are the likely impacts of these pests? How will the answers change under Global Change?

Where are Europes future pests presently located?

Themes

Trends Warmer conditions, sightly expanded source of pests, more impacts

Existing invaders and sources are the most important risks Uncertainty

Greenhouse gas emissions patterns? How much climate will change? How quickly it will change? Trade patterns? Effectiveness and application of Phytosanitary measures?

Climate warming scenarios AR4

Source: IPCC FAR

Climate warming scenarios AR5

Source: IPCC AR5

So what does this mean for Europes climate?

Climate zones move northward and into higher altitudes

Less severe winters allow persistence of more pest species from warmer climates Transient pests can become established

Longer growing seasons allow more pest generations Greater impacts

European Pest Invasion Threats

Invasion Debts* Invaders already present, but have not filled their climatic

niche Species not yet introduced, but likely to, from traditional

risk areas

Range expansion under climate change for invaders already present

New invaders, traditional threat risk areas Threats from non-traditional risk areas

Emerging threats as climate changes

*Rouget et al 2015

Halyomorpha halys Current Climate

Future Climate Scenario

CSIRO A2 2080 (similar to RCP 8.5)

CSIRO A2 2080

Range Change Sensitivity current vs 2080

Range Boundaries are Dynamic

Where are Europes new pest threats coming from?

Europe future, world current minus Europe current, world current

Europe World Current

Europe 2080 World Current

Identifying current and emerging threat species

Climate matching techniques identify threat areas areas under current and future climates

Pest list from CABI Invasive Species Compendium Subtract pest species already established in Europe Search GBIF for distribution data for each pest not

present Spatially intersect pest distribution data with climate

match regions List species whose distributions overlap risk areas

Bactrocera dorsalis current climate

Bactrocera dorsalis 2080 A2 CS

Bactrocera dorsalis 2080 A2 CS

Bactrocera dorsalis 2080 A2 CS + irrigation

How will pest risks change in the future?

Invasive species already present will continue to invade, and their potential ranges will extend further into higher latitudes and altitudes

Emerging phytosanitary risk areas Warmer regions than traditional risk areas Cooler regions than traditional risk areas (as invasive species migrate)

Emerging threat species Species adapted to warmer (and wetter) conditions

Managing under uncertainty Emphasis on monitoring trends Embrace technology for surveillance Responses need to be agile

International Pest Risk Research Group

www.pestrisk.org Free to join! Next meetings

Taichung, Taiwan 2018 Poznan, Poland 2019

http://www.pestrisk.org/

Health & Biosecurity Darren Kriticos Principal Research Scientist t +61 2 6246 4252 e darren.kriticos@csiro.au w www.csiro.au/K/D/Darren-Kriticos

Thank you Merci

HEALTH & BIOSECURITY

Diapositive numro 1Analysis of the effect of climate on plant pest and disease risks in EuropeCritical Phytosanitary Risk QuestionsThemesClimate warming scenarios AR4Climate warming scenarios AR5So what does this mean for Europes climate?European Pest Invasion ThreatsHalyomorpha halysCurrent ClimateFuture Climate ScenarioRange Change Sensitivity current vs 2080Range Boundaries are DynamicWhere are Europes new pest threats coming from?Europe World Current Europe 2080 World CurrentIdentifying current and emerging threat speciesBactrocera dorsalis current climateBactrocera dorsalis 2080 A2 CSBactrocera dorsalis 2080 A2 CSBactrocera dorsalis 2080 A2 CS + irrigationHow will pest risks change in the future?International Pest Risk Research GroupThank you Merci