Analysis of Turkey Tourism

8/12/2019 Analysis of Turkey Tourism

1/43

An Analysis of Turkeys Tourism Sector

and the Impact of Externalities

By

Refet Duygu Erdemgil

Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

for International Commerce and Policy

Advisor: Dr. Matthys van Schaik

Capstone Coordinator: Dr. Todd M. La Porte

George Mason University

Summer 2002


2/43

i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page Number

Abstract ii

Map of Turkey iii

Introduction 1

Section One 3

World Tourism in Brief 3The Turkish Tourism Sector 6

Section Two 15The 1991 Gulf War 15The 1999 Earthquake 18

Section Three 21The Terrorist Attacks of September 11 21Possible U.S. Attack on Iraq 24The IMF Support 29

Conclusion 34

Bibliography 37


3/43

ii

Abstract

This paper examines the importance of the tourism sector in Turkey using quantitative

and qualitative data. Additionally, the effects of certain events in Turkeys recent history (1990-

2002) on the tourism sector are discussed. Finally, the likely impact of a possible U.S. military

action against Iraq on the Turkish economy, and especially on its tourism industry is explored.

This paper proceeds with an outline of the tourism sector. Specifically, the importance of

the tourism sector in relationship to the economy as a whole is highlighted. Data will show how

the negative effects of some events of the past curtailed Turkeys tourism industry and how

possible developments might curb its advancement in the future.


4/43

iii

Turkey1

Location: southeastern Europe and southwestern Asia (that portion of Turkey west of theBosporus is geographically part of Europe), bordering the Black Sea, between Bulgariaand Georgia, and bordering the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, between

Greece and Syria

Geographic

coordinates:39 00 N, 35 00 E

Area: total: 780,580 sq kmland: 770,760 sq km

water: 9,820 sq km

Area comparative: slightly larger than Texas

Land boundaries: total: 2,627 kmborder countries: Armenia 268 km, Azerbaijan 9 km, Bulgaria 240 km, Georgia 252km, Greece 206 km, Iran 499 km, Iraq 331 km, Syria 822 km

Coastline: 7,200 km

Climate: temperate; hot, dry summers with mild, wet winters; harsher in interior

Terrain: mostly mountains; narrow coastal plain; high central plateau (Anatolia)

1Central Intelligence Agency. World Factbook. (Washington, D.C. 2001).


5/43

1

INTRODUCTION

Turkey, a country that sits on two continents, serves as a literal and figurative bridge

between the East and the West. As the weeklyNational Journalmagazine points out, Turkeys

two-world contrast between Eastern traditionalism and Western modernity are apparent

everywhere and are integral to Turkeys unique character.2 The history of Turkey dates back

centuries. Many historians and archeologists have flocked to this country to study the numerous

civilizations of the world whose roots are found in Turkey. Author Stephen Kinzer wrote,

Nowhere does history delight in them as fully as in the land now called Turkey.3

Indeed, in

Turkey, one can find the well-preserved histories of the Hittites, Lydians, Romans, Byzantines,

Ottomans and modern-day Turks. They have all left their marks on this land and have provided

Turkey, also referred to as Anatolia, with scores of historical sites.

The cradle of civilization, as Anatolia has also been called, has attracted its peoples as a

result of its geographic topography. The land provided the resources for the development of

many diverse civilizations. Turkey is surrounded by three seas: The Mediterranean in the south,

the Aegean in the west and the Black Sea in the north. The two continents, Europe and Asia, are

separated by the straits of Dardanelles and Bosporus.4 Turkeys climate provides four seasons.

Moreover, the hospitality and friendliness of its present-day inhabitants complement the history

and nature. Therefore, with all these characteristics, it is not surprising that millions of

foreigners visit the country each year.

2James Kitfield, The Turkish Model, National Journal, March 2, 2002, 9.3Stephen Kinzer, Crescent & Star (New York: Farrar Strauss & Giroux, 2001), 57.4Turkey Yearbook 2000, Turkish Prime Ministry, Directorate General of Press and Information.


6/43

2

However, due to circumstances beyond Turkeys control, Turkeys tourism sector has

occasionally had economic ups and downs as a result of a series of events throughout the 1990s.

All in all, the Turkish tourism industry has made great strides since the implementation of free

market and liberal economy policies starting in the early 1980s. Beginning in 1990 and owing to

modern infrastructural developments and peoples desire to travel more, the tourism sector has

proven itself to be a profitable area. It is now perceived as one of the main pillars of the Turkish

economy that is passing through difficult times. The Turkish economys dependence on tourism

makes it an invaluable sector. Yet, on several occasions the Gulf War of 1991, the earthquake

of 1999 and the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 the tourism sector was confronted with

severe blows and this obviously hurt the economy as a whole. Now, another set of dark clouds is

looming over Turkeys tourism sector. There are strong signs that the U.S. will strike militarily

against Iraq in the near future, a probability that makes the outlook for Turkeys tourism sector

somewhat disheartening.


7/43

3

SECTION ONE

World Tourism in Brief

Although there is no single definition of tourism, according to the World Tourism

Organization (WTO), tourism comprises the activities of persons traveling to and staying in

places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure,

business and other purposes.5A tourist, on the other hand, is a visitor who stays at least one

night in collective or private accommodation in the country visited.6The WTO, which

represents 139 countries, is an affiliate of the United Nations and is considered to be a global

forum for tourism policies and issues. Tourism could also be depicted as an industry that

provides a platform for the interaction of tourists with local businesses and communities of host

countries.

According to the book, Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development, Tourist

activity is essential for its direct effects on the social, cultural, educational and economic sectors

of individual countries, and on international relations throughout the world, and as such it is of

primary interest to the collectivity and justifies an important public intervention.7 As Chart 1

shows, tourism has become the worlds largest industry. The global economic prosperity and the

desire of people to travel more extensively has made tourism the leading earner of exports, even

ahead of giant industries such as automotive, chemicals, food, fuel and computers.

5World Tourism Organization, www.world-tourism.org.

6World Tourism Organization.7Amadeo Fossati , et al., Tourism And Sustainable Economic Development (Norwell, MA: Kluwer, 2000), 5.


8/43

4

Chart 1

Table 1 indicates that in 2000 the U.S. led the world in tourism receipts. The total number

of tourists who visited the top 15 countries amounted to nearly 300 million people out of almost

700 million international tourists.8Their total market share was about 61%.

For many countries, including Turkey, international tourism has become a consistent

source of foreign currency and often a much-needed remedy to improve economic conditions of

those nations.9Though its tourism industry could still be considered very young, for Turkey, 7.6

million tourists and a market share of 1.6% in 2000 were signs of positive performance.

Additionally, taking part in a list of such advanced nations has meant worldwide recognition as a

favorable tourist destination.

8World Tourism Organization.9J. Diamond, Tourisms Role in Economic Development: The Case Reexamined, Economic Development and

Cultural Change, v25, n3 (April 1977): 539-53.


9/43

5

Table 1

World's Top 15 Tourism Earners

International Tourist

Arrivals (million)Rank

1999 Country

1999 2000

Change

(%)2000/1999

Market Share

(%)2000

1 United States 74.9 85.2 13.7 17.9

2 Spain 32.4 31.0 -4.3 6.5

3 France 31.5 29.9 -5.1 6.3

4 Italy 28.4 27.4 -3.2 5.8

5 United Kingdom 20.2 19.5 -3.4 4.1

6 Germany 16.7 17.8 6.5 3.7

7 China 14.1 16.2 15.1 3.4

8 Austria 12.5 11.4 -8.7 2.4

9 Canada 10.2 10.8 5.9 2.3

10 Greece 8.8 9.2 5.0 1.9

11 Australia 8.0 8.4 5.3 1.8

12 Mexico 7.2 8.3 14.8 1.7

13 Hong Kong 7.2 7.9 9.4 1.7

14 Turkey 5.2 7.6 46.8 1.6

15 Russian Federation 7.5 - - -

Source: World Tourism Organization

According to data released by the World Tourism Organization in June 2002, Chart 2,

international tourist arrivals in 2001 were 693 million, 4 million less than 2000. As an

unexpected externality, the main reason for this decline was September 11 terrorist attacks

against the U.S. Indeed, a representative from the U.S. Department of Commerces Office of

Tourism and Travel Industries, who declined her name to be used, said, It is predicted that it

will take until 2005 to regain the same level of American outbound travel as if September 11


10/43

6

never happened. She also said that she was certain that there would be a decrease in the number

of American tourists traveling abroad if there is a U.S. attack on Iraq.10

Chart 2

Source: World Tourism Organization

The Turkish Tourism Sector

The Turkish tourism sectors development can be divided into the following periods:

Strong etatist policy (1923-50); guarded liberalization (1950-60); planned economy (1960-80);

transition to private entrepreneurship (1980-90); and private sector dominance and liberal

economic policy (1990-present).

11

Turkey really started incorporating tourism into its economic

policy in early 1960s. However, it took at least two decades to draw up tourism development

10U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Tourism and Travel Industries,Telephone Interview with a Representative, September 4, 2002.11Yorghos Apostolopoulos, et al., Mediterranean Tourism: Facets of socioeconomic development and cultural

change (New York: Routledge, 2001), 93-94.

International Tourist Arrivals - World

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

1998 1999 2000 2001

Years

Million


11/43

7

and infrastructure projects. As of 1983, the government adopted important guidelines of tourism

policy such as creating a highly competitive tourism sector, developing tourism facilities,

preserving natural sites and encouraging the people in this sector by providing them with

economic incentives.12

The main achievement was the introduction of a free market economy. Since then,

increasingly market-oriented policies have been pursued. The government implemented a series

of reforms aimed at economic liberalization and this paved the way for foreign businesses to

invest heavily in Turkey. This transformation helped the tourism industry and infrastructure to

develop itself. Infrastructure reforms such as the boom of foreign and domestic owned 5-star

hotels between 1980 and 1990 have been a great encouragement to the economy. The foreign

hotels in Turkey are a form of highly desired foreign direct investment (FDI). In 2000, the

tourism sectors share of total FDI in the services sector was 8.4%.13

Turkeys tourism sector relies heavily on FDI. Whether or not Turkey can sustain its

growth relies on a few important principles. Capital flows to the tourism sector can be obtained

from domestic and foreign investors. However, their interest in investing in Turkey will rely

mainly on several factors such as increases in the number of visitors, regional and environmental

stability, a strong return on their investment and a stable economy and government.

12Turkish Export Promotion Center (IGEME), www.igeme.org.13Turkey 2001, An International Comparison, Foreign Economic Relations Board (Lebib Yalkin, 2002).


12/43

8

With time, tourism has become Turkeys second largest source of foreign currency after

textiles.14 However, over the years, unexpected and sudden circumstances, including

international quarrels and natural disasters, have impeded the further development and growth of

Turkish tourism causing fluctuations in the tourism sector.

Chart 3

Source: Turkish Ministry of Tourism

Chart 3 shows a considerable increase in tourism revenues over a twelve-year period.

Starting in 1992, which is post-Gulf War, Turkeys tourism revenues have shown a positive

growth rate. The exceptions are a slight decline in 1991 and a significant drop in 1999, when a

14Robert R. Miller, The Private Sector and Development: Five Case Studies, International Finance CorporationPublications.

Turkey's Tourism Revenues

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Years

MillionsUSD


13/43

9

disastrous earthquake hit western Anatolia. In fact, it fell into the 1995 level, but bounced back

nearly 40% and exceeded $8 billion in 2001.

Table 2 highlights the growth of hotels in Turkey. Specifically, the number of hotel beds

showed an impressive growth rate throughout the 1990s. The number of beds nearly doubled in

ten years.

Table 2


The occupancy rates of these hotels are also important. Chart 4 demonstrates the

fluctuations of hotel occupancy for the years 1990 to 2000. In 2000, the occupancy rate was

40%. This suggests that there is room to grow at potentially lower rates. The supply of these

rooms outweighs the demand for them.

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

No of Hotels 1260 1404 1498 1581 1729 1793 1866 1933 1954 1907

Growth Rate 14.34% 11.43% 6.70% 5.54% 9.36% 3.70% 4.07% 3.59% 1.09% -2.41%

No of Hotel Beds 173227 200678 219940 235238 265136 280463 301524 313298 314215 319313

Growth Rate 18.58% 15.85% 9.59% 6.76% 12.71% 5.78% 7.51% 3.90% 0.29% 1.62%


14/43

10

Chart 4

Source: Association of Turkish Travel Agencies

One of the reforms that helped the foreign visitors has been Turkeys acceptance of

Article 8 of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This article is referred to as the

Convertibility Principle and it stipulates that both domestic and foreign currency should circulate

freely within the country and abroad without any substantial restrictions. Other practicalities

have included widespread use of ATMs and acceptance of credit cards, enabling convenient

payment locally. The bank would convert the bill from Turkish lira into U.S. dollars for the

tourists monthly statement. From an economic development perspective, in light of these

Occupancy Rates of Hotels in Turkey

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1991 1992 1993 199 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Years

Percentag


15/43

11

actions, the Turkish government provided domestic businesses with an excellent selling point to

attract foreign visitors.15

The Turkish government is also working on reforms to finance more tourism promotion

events. For instance, the 2003 Asian Development Banks annual meeting will be held in

Istanbul. This is a good opportunity to promote the country. The private and banking sectors in

Turkey are heavily involved in promoting tourism. They sponsor many events for the cause, as

they are often the largest benefactors of increased tourism. The foreign exchange receipts

deposited in their banks allow them to increase lending, and therefore boost profits.

Chart 5

Comparison of Turkish Lira and the Number of Tourist Arrivals

Source: World Bank Development Indicators 2000

15Umit Gonulal, Economic Counselor, Turkish Embassy, Washington, D.C., Personal Interview, July 12, 2002.

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Year

#ofArrivals

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

Turkish

lira

International tourism, number of arrivals

Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average)


16/43

12

In 1994 and 2001, Turkey suffered a sharp depreciation in the Turkish lira. The

weakening Turkish lira has made Turkey appealing as a tourist destination since foreign currency

bought more Turkish lira. Chart 5 compares the devaluation of the Turkish lira against the USD

to the number of tourist arrivals.16 Despite the depreciation of the Turkish lira, the number of

tourists visiting decreased in 1999 due to a major earthquake. The affordability of the Turkish

lira was an important factor in attracting tourists to visit Turkey. Using the data provided in

Chart 5, the correlation factor between the two variables was 0.527 between 1990 and 1999. If

the formula is modified to include 1990-1998, the correlation factor rises to 0.867. This suggests

that foreign tourists who traveled to Turkey between 1990 and 1998 considered the affordability

aspect prior to their travels. However, when 1999 data is included in the formula tourists also

take safety into consideration that will be discussed in the earthquake section of this paper.

Table 3

Number of Visitors and Tourism Receipts

Source: Association of Turkish Travel Agencies

16World Bank Development Indicators 2000, CD-ROM.

Years Visitors

(thousands)Change %

Receipts

(million $)Change %

1990 5,389 20.9 2,705 5.8

1991 5,517 2.4 2,654 -1.9

1992 7,076 28.3 3,639 37.1

1993 6,500 -8.1 3,959 8.8

1994 6,670 2.6 4,321 9.1

1995 7,726 15.8 4,957 14.7

1996 8,614 11.5 5,650 13.9

1997 9,689 13.0 7,080 23.9

1998 9,752 0.7 7,177 2.0

1999 7,464 -23.5 5,193 -27.6

2000 10,412 39.0 7,636 47.4

2001 11,569 11.0 8,090 5,9


17/43

13

The tourism sector in Turkey has shown important progress in the past 12 years. As Table

3 indicates, despite noticeable declines in 1991 (the Gulf War), 1999 (the earthquake) and 2001

(the September 11 attacks), the number of foreign visitors between 1990 and 2001 increased by

more than 100%, while the tourism receipts grew almost 300%. In other words, both the number

of tourists and their expenditures increased. These are positive attributes of the Turkish tourism

sector during this time period.

The emphasis on the tourism industry is a well-aimed effort. However, agriculture is

crucial for Turkey too. Farmers make up 45% of the population, though they only contribute

16% to Turkeys GNP.17 Turkey knows that it cannot solely rely on agriculture for wealth and

development, and needs to optimize these two vital industries for the benefit of its citizens.

Agriculture, historically, has been the countrys largest sector and a major contributor to

its GDP. However, in recent years there has been a shift from agriculture to tourism and other

services. The reason for the decline partly could be attributed to unproductive agricultural

enterprises. Industrial developments and advancement of tourism also have an important role in

general fall of agriculture.18

The latest data, Chart 6, from the State Institute of Statistics, which is affiliated with the

Turkish Prime Ministry, indicates that while there was a decline in agricultural employment

compared to previous years, the services sector slightly increased, according to the results of the

first quarter of 2000.

17Turkish Prime Ministry, State Institute of Statistics, www.die.gov.tr.18Turkish Prime Ministry, Undersecretariat of Treasury, www.treasury.gov.tr.


18/43

14

Chart 6

Source: Turkish Prime Ministry, State Institute of Statistics

From a macroeconomic perspective, tourism is considered to be a volatile sector and

therefore cannot fully make up an economy. It is vulnerable to external effects such as wars and

natural disasters as well as general economic conditions at home and abroad, exchange rates, etc.

as opposed to other sectors like manufacturing and agriculture. Certainly, many sectors are

affected by wars and natural disasters and tourism is no doubt one of them, as it is highly

susceptible to negative externalities. Second, a viable and sustainable tourism industry requires

high capital investments including infrastructure development and transportation. Finally,

tourism employment is often seasonal. Tourist destinations rely on the will of a person to

consume their environment. Therefore, Turkey experiences a fluctuation in the employment rate

based on the willingness of foreign tourists to arrive at its borders.


19/43

15

SECTION TWO

The Gulf War

In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, prompting retaliation by the United States and its

allies with Operation Desert Storm in January 1991. They defeated Iraq and forced it to leave

Kuwait. Turkey, a NATO ally of the U.S., supported Washingtons campaign against Baghdad

and provided the U.S. with access to Turkish military bases. In response to the United Nations

Resolutions, Turkey shut down the Iraqi pipeline and cooperated with the international sanctions

imposed against the Baghdad regime.

The war severely damaged the Turkish economy. Turkey was importing most of its oil

from Iraq relatively cheaper than market prices and also charging pipeline transit fees for the

Iraqi oil exports. Turkey was also Iraqs largest trading partner. As a result, Turkey suffered the

loss of tens of billions of dollars in trade and revenues.19In 1990, before the Gulf War, the

annual capacity of Iraqi oil that flowed through two pipelines to a Turkish petroleum terminal on

the Mediterranean coast was almost 340 million barrels. Due to the sanctions imposed against

Iraq, from 1991 to 1995, not a single drop of oil was transported through the pipelines. A United

Nations Resolution in 1996 has permitted gradual transportation.20Consequently, the economic

losses that the country faced could only be offset by the fervor of the tourism industry.

Turkey entered the 1990s with impressive tourism statistics. The Gulf War was an

unexpected blow to Turkish tourism in 1991. For some, the impact was temporary due to the

19Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, www.mfa.gov.tr.20Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS), www.botas.gov.tr.


20/43

16

shortness of the war. By 1995, arrivals were greater than 7.7 million and foreign exchange

receipts were more than $5 billion.21But for others, the wars economic effects were severe.

According to Sinan Aygun, president of Ankara Chamber of Commerce, before the Gulf War

Turkeys export revenue from Iraq was $5 billion annually. Multiply that by 12 years, and we

have lost about $60 billion. For the sake of being on better terms with the U.S., we ended up

being on really bad terms with Iraq, he said.22


Whether civil or international, wars have had some of the most adverse effects on

tourism. The Gulf War not only deterred most tourists from visiting Middle Eastern countries,

21Yorghos Apostolopoulos, et al., Mediterranean Tourism: Facets of socioeconomic development and culturalchange (New York: Routledge, 2001), 105.22 R. Working, Turks Wary of War in Back Yard, The Baltimore Sun, March 27, 2002.

Table 4

Number of Visitors

(thousands)

Country 1990 1991 1992

Germany 973 779 1165

U.K. 351 200 314

United States 205 79 182

Number of Visitors' Index

Country 1990 1991 1992

Germany 100.0 80.1 119.7U.K. 100.0 57.0 89.5

United States 100.0 38.5 88.8


21/43

17

but also raised fears of terrorist attacks on airports used by American travelers, according to the

book, Tourism and Society: A Guide to Problems and Issues.23 As Table 4 illustrates, the Gulf

War significantly reduced the number of foreign visitors from the three selected countries in

1991. The war particularly deterred Americans from traveling to Turkey. Close to 60% of

Americans, 45% of British and 20% of Germans who had visited the country the previous year

either chose other destinations or stayed home. Though hesitantly, they started returning the next

year. In the following years, the number of tourists from those countries picked up speed.

Source: OECD/GD (97)172, Tourism Policy and International Tourism in OECD Countries

23Robert W. Wyllie, Tourism and Society: A Guide to Problems and Issues (Pennsylvania: Venture, 2000), 122.

T a b l e 51 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9

A r r i v a l s o f f o r e i g n t o u r i s t s / v i s it o r s a t f r o n t i e r s f r o m t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ( i n d e x e s )

C a n a d a 9 9 . 4 9 8 9 6 . 5 9 8 . 1 1 0 2 . 4 1 0 6 .

A u s t r a l i a 1 0 4 1 0 8 . 4 1 0 4 . 9 1 1 2 . 2 1 1 4 . 2 1 2 0 .

N e w Z e a l a n d 9 8 . 5 9 5 9 4 . 1 1 0 2 . 8 1 1 3 . 5 1 0

F r a n c e 1 0 8 . 2 8 2 1 0 0 . 5 9 8 . 6 1 1 5 . 9 1 0 9 .

I t a ly 9 5 . 5 8 0 . 1 9 1 . 1 8 5 . 2 9 0 . 9 9 7 .

T u r k e y 9 9 . 4 3 8 . 5 8 8 . 6 1 2 3 . 9 1 3 1 . 7 1 4

A r r i v a l s o f f o r e i g n t o u r i s t s / v i s i t o r s a t f r o n t i e r s f r o m t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m ( i n d e x e s )

C a n a d a 1 0 3 9 5 . 9 9 7 1 0 1 . 5 1 0 4 . 2 1 1 5 .A u s t r a l i a 9 8 . 2 9 4 . 9 1 0 4 . 3 1 1 1 . 7 1 1 8 . 6 1 2 3 .

N e w Z e a l a n d 8 5 . 2 1 0 0 . 8 1 1 0 . 6 1 1 8 . 5 1 3 3 1 4 0 .

F r a n c e 8 7 . 6 1 0 0 . 1 1 0 2 . 6 1 0 6 . 7 1 5 4 . 1 1 3 8 .

I t a ly 9 3 . 1 8 3 . 6 7 8 . 8 8 4 . 9 8 8 8 2 .

T u r k e y 1 1 5 . 5 5 7 . 1 8 9 . 5 1 2 5 . 7 1 6 1 . 7 2 0

A r r i v a l s o f f o r e i g n t o u r i s t s / v i s i t o r s a t f r o n t i e r s f r o m G e r m a n y ( i n d e x e s )

C a n a d a 1 0 7 . 3 1 0 8 . 5 1 1 5 . 5 1 3 4 . 7 1 4 6 . 1 1 6 7 .

A u s t r a l i a 9 1 . 8 1 0 4 . 7 1 2 1 . 2 1 4 2 . 3 1 6 4 . 7 1 6 6 .

N e w Z e a l a n d 7 9 . 2 1 1 4 . 4 1 5 2 . 4 1 8 7 . 3 1 9 7 . 6 1 8 3 .

F r a n c e 1 0 0 . 3 1 1 0 . 8 1 2 0 1 2 3 . 7 1 0 3 . 8 1 0 0 .

I t a ly 9 4 . 9 8 6 . 2 8 2 . 3 7 2 . 1 7 7 . 8 8 2 .

T u r k e y 9 2 . 1 8 0 . 1 1 1 9 . 6 1 1 4 . 9 1 0 2 . 1 1 7 0 .


22/43

18

Table 5 shows some of the travel destinations of tourists from the U.S., U.K. and

Germany between 1989 and 1995. The trend in 1989 did not continue in 1991 due to the Gulf

War. Visitors from the U.S., for instance, traveled much less in 1991. Among the selected six

countries that were visited by the tourists from three nations during that year, the country with

most dramatic slide in the visitors index was Turkey, a neighbor to Iraq.

The Gulf War proved that international conflicts can financially hurt many countries

whose economies are dependent on tourism. Also, the nearer a country to the war zone meant the

greater the damage. In Turkeys case, a country with so much dependence on its tourism sector

and who happens to be in close proximity to the area of conflict, the harmful effects were more

than what had been predicted. Despite a speedy recovery of the tourism sector the following

year, the Gulf Wars lingering impact on other sectors of the economy was felt.

The 1999 Earthquake

In August 1999, Turkey was faced with another significant challenge. The nation

suffered a massive and devastating earthquake in the western region of the country. More than

17,000 people lost their lives. The estimated cost of the quake was at least $25 billion.

Hundreds of thousands of people were left homeless. The area affected by the earthquake is as

large as Belgium and Denmark combined, and 23% of the Turkish population lives there.24

24Baki Ilkin, Turkish Ambassador, Speech, Washington, D.C., January 18, 2000.


23/43

19

Turkey is located on a major fault line. Essentially, this means that it is always under

threat of another earthquake. There is nothing Turkey could do to prevent this natural disaster

from happening, modern-day science has not found a detection method for earthquakes yet.

However, the illegal and irregular construction of buildings posed a larger problem, as evidenced

by ancient buildings largely unaffected. The Turks heavily criticized the government for the lack

of authority and efficiency. Reforms in the field were promised, however there was not much

accomplishment.25The quake occurred at a time when the Turkish economy was improving.

Prior to the disaster, increased foreign investments had made economic recovery seem close.

Affected areas accounted for more than one-third of Turkeys economic activity as this region is

regarded as the industrial heartland of the nation.

Consequently, another setback to Turkeys tourism sector was unavoidable. The upward

trend that started in 1992 came to a halt, then slid downwards. The occupancy rates of hotels in

Turkey decreased (Chart 4) and people in the tourism business suffered important losses. The

vendors inside the famous Covered Bazaar were pleading with those who passed to purchase

Turkish rugs, silver jewelry and silk scarves. Many vendors went days, or even weeks, without

making a sale.26

Due to the earthquake, as Table 6 highlights, tourism revenues in 1999 fell to 1995 levels.

The number of foreign visitors declined by more than 20% compared to the previous year. The

loss of foreign currency, which amounted to $2 billion less than 1998 figures, decreased

25R. Jeffrey Smith, Turkish Government Fails Quake Test, The Washington Post, August 29, 1999, p. A1.26Stephanie Kinner, Staff Writer, DisasterRelief.Org, September 1, 1999.


24/43

20

government revenues and therefore further exacerbated the economic woes the nation was

facing. In the aftermath of the earthquake, shopkeepers and hotels had to lower their prices to

entice tourists back with bargains. This follows the theory of supply and demand; a leftward shift

in the demand curve occurs. This would reflect a decrease in the demand for the goods and

services offered. Consequently, this would force suppliers to lower their prices to achieve an

increase in demand.

Table 6

Number of Visitors and Tourism Receipts


Being prepared for a natural disaster could save lives and property. But still a natural

disaster could hit any place, at any time in the world disregarding destruction of life and

economic losses it might cause. In Turkeys case, an earthquake in 1999 affected its tourism

sector. Tourism revenues fell nearly 30% compared to 1998. However, revenues increased by

more than 45% the following year. These indicators again show how dynamic and attractive the

tourism industry is despite occasional natural obstacles.

Years Visitors

(thousands

Receipts

(million $)

1995 7,726 4,957

1996 8,614 5,650

1997 9,689 7,080

1998 9,752 7,177

1999 7,464 5,193

2000 10,412 7,636


25/43

21

SECTION THREE

The Terrorist Attacks of September 11

On September 11, 2001, terrorists hijacked four commercial planes and hit the twin

towers of the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington and a fourth

one crashed in Pittsburgh. As a result, thousands of people perished. This was the largest

terrorist attack against the U.S. on its own soil in history. The U.S. government subsequently

declared a war on terrorism. The Turkish government stressed that it was supporting the U.S.

fully in its war against terrorism.27

Turkey easily could relate to the situation the Americans

were in, for it had gone through a 15-year struggle with the Kurdish terrorist organization-PKK.

The PKK terror had cost 30 thousand Turkish lives. Therefore, the Turks understood probably

better than any other nation the pain the Americans felt.28

It was discovered that al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden were behind these attacks. The

terrorist organization, al-Qaeda, was based in Afghanistan. In November 2001, the U.S. started

bombing Afghanistan to destroy this organization, its leader and its ally, the Taliban. The attacks

have almost eradicated al-Qaeda and effectively terminated the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

For the world tourism industry, the effects have been severe for many countries.

Worldwide there have been 693 million international tourist arrivals in 2001 corresponding to a

decrease of - 0.6% or 4 million down from the 697 million of 2000 () The terrorist attacks of

27Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezers Letter to U.S. President George W. Bush, Office of the President of theRepublic of Turkey, July 3, 2002.28Prime Minister Bulent Ecevits visit to the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, September 19, 2001,

www.basbakanlik.gov.tr.


26/43

22

September 11 severely aggravated the situation and as a result, for the first time since 1982 (the

times of the second oil crisis, martial law in Poland, the Falkland War and the conflict between

Israel and Lebanon) the worldwide number of international tourist arrivals showed a slight

decrease.29

It has also had a negative impact on Turkish tourism. Until September 11 of that year, as

Table 7 illustrates, the Turkish tourism industry thrived in 2001.

Table 7

Number of Foreign Visitors Arriving in Turkey

in 2001(monthly comparisons)

Months Visitors

(thousands)Change

(%)

January 359 7,7

February 404 14,2

March 547 25,7

April 871 20,8May 1216 23,3

June 1,376 27,5

July 1,775 16,4

August 1,596 12,5

September 1,438 5,1

October 1,065 -9,6

November 521 -13,5

December 396 -6,3

Source: State Institute of Statistics and Turkish Ministry of Tourism

As it happened in the previous year, the upward trend of the Turkish tourism sector

continued in the first eight months of 2001. Despite a slight increase in September, the numbers

29News from the World Tourism Organization, June 18, 2002, www.world-tourism.org


27/43

23

drastically fell in the following three months of 2001 and disrupted expectations. This naturally

was a depressing setback for the tourism industry. To a certain degree the decreases in arrivals

for October, November and December were seasonal, however, taking into consideration that

Turkeys climate is conducive to year-round travel, the main cause was fear of travel in the

immediate aftermath of September 11.

According to the Association of Turkish Travel Agents (TURSAB), during the period of

January-June 2002, the number of foreign visitors from the countries who traditionally spend

more than the average tourist has declined, despite an overall increase of 4.1% compared to the

same months of 2001. Tourists from the United States, France, Japan, Italy and Spain are

considered as groups who visit the cultural and historical sites of Anatolia as opposed to

Germans, British and Scandinavians who mostly prefer sun, sea and sand.30 While the decrease

in the number of visitors from the U.S. and Japan have been deepening, declining number of

tourists from France, Italy and Spain especially hurt the tourism industry in Istanbul. 31

These horrific events and the fear of future terror attacks have slowed the tourism

industry worldwide. Some businesses associated with travel and tourism such as airline

companies, hotels, travel agencies, etc. either have gone out of business or have laid off scores of

employees. Ironically, the number of visitors traveled to Turkey has slightly grown in the first

six months of 2002.

30Association of Turkish Travel Agencies, www.tursab.org.31Association of Turkish Travel Agencies.


28/43

24

Possible U.S. Attack on Iraq

The region, Figure 1, is a constant hotbed of problems that cause instability. U.S.

President George W. Bush referred to two neighbors of Turkey, Iran and Iraq, as members of an

axis of evil.32Also, Iraq, Iran and Syria are listed in a U.S. State Department report as

countries that are sponsoring terrorism.33 For the past decade, U.S. and British warplanes have

used a Turkish military base at Incirlik, about 60 miles from Syrias border and 320 miles from

Iraqs, to patrol a no-fly zone over northern Iraq.

32U.S. President George W. Bush, State of the Union Address, January 29, 2002, Washington, D.C.33U.S. State Department, Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001, May 21, 2002.

Figure 1


29/43

25

Today, the United States is in phase two of its war on terrorism. Its second target is

probably Iraq. The U.S. believes that Saddam Hussein is a threat to all Iraqis as well as to its

neighboring countries. The George W. Bush administration has warned that it would oust the

Baghdad regime by using any means necessary, including military. Various media sources have

claimed the U.S. will invade Iraq in the winter of 2003. While commenting on the U.S.-Russia

relationship, Jim Hoagland, a Washington Postwriter, said European leaders support for arms

control treaty could come into play again in the diplomatic run-up to an American military

strike against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein next winter.34 In addition, Helle Dale, a

commentator for the Washington Times, wrote that European opposition would unlikely delay a

military action against Iraq and sarcastically said that the weather would be most favorable

during the winter months.35

As a traditionally close ally of the United States and a NATO member with a

predominantly Muslim population, Turkey is in a delicate position. While Turkey gives full

support to Americas war on terrorism, it has reservations and in fact opposes an attack on Iraq.

Turkeys deepest concern is that overthrowing President Saddam Hussein could result in the

disintegration of Iraq, which might further complicate the status quo in the region.36 Turkey

fears that if attacked Iraq might fall apart and an independent Kurdish state might emerge in

Northern Iraq where Turkey shares a border. Also, hundreds of thousands of Kurds from

northern Iraq might flee to Turkey, as it happened during the Gulf War. The Gulf War set us

back for almost a decade, said retired Turkish General Cevik Bir. Now we are moving

34Jim Hoagland, U.S., Russia and Global Entente, The Washington Post, July 25, 2002.35Helle Dale, Between Iraq and a hard place, The Washington Times , August 21, 2002.36Rita Cosby, Interview with Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, Fox News, January 19, 2002.


30/43

26

forward, this would create new problems. We would become obsessed for years with all the

security problems it would create.37

The Economist Intelligence Unit agreed and warned the possibility of a U.S. military

action against Iraq is a continuing source of worry for Turkish policymakers, although current

uncertainty regarding the timing and extent of such action has helped to ease Turkey's concerns.

Turkey needs to maintain its generally co-operative relationship with the U.S., but it is worried

that following U.S. military intervention Iraq could break up, and an independent Kurdish state

emerge in the northern part of the country.38

Statements by U.S. officials such as President Bush has not yet decided what action will

be taken against Iraq at least temporarily relieved Turkey.39However, in a press conference he

held on July 8, President Bush was asked: Is it your firm intention to get rid of Saddam Hussein

in Iraq and how hard do you think it will be? And his answer was explicit enough: Its a

stated policy of this government to have a regime change. And there are different ways to do it

() The world will be safer and more peaceful if theres a regime change in that government.40

Although Washington has neither established a direct link between al-Qaeda and Iraq,

nor has it proven that Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction, the White House insists

that Saddam Hussein should be overthrown. In a forceful statement, Vice President Dick

Cheney said that the Iraqi leader had weapons of mass destruction and that he was seeking

37Fareed Zakaria, The Fears of a Muslim Ally, Newsweek, January 28, 2002.38The Economst Intelligence Unit, Turkey Country Reports 1996-2002, www.eiu.com.39News item on Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser, Fox News, May 5, 2002.40Presidential News and Speeches, The White House, July 8, 2002.


31/43

27

nuclear weapons. Vice President Cheney said, the risk of inaction is far greater than the risk of

action.41His message was clear enough that a U.S. military attack against Iraq should be

expected soon.

What will happen after a possible U.S. military attack on Iraq is a question everyone is

asking about. What happens after Saddam Hussein is gone? The U.S. forces will eventually

return back home, but Turkey will continue to be Iraqs neighbor and will have to confront the

problems of a post-Saddam Hussein era. Turkeys opposition to a possible U.S. military action

against Iraq does not stem from its affection for Saddam Hussein. On the contrary, the Turks are

very much against his regime, and regard him as a menace. They know that as long as he is in

power there will not be peace and stability, and that the U.S. will continue to go after him.

However, the Turkish authorities think all other means should be tried, before resorting to the

most costly one: A military attack, which would cause many innocent lives to be lost, and which

might change the whole equilibrium in the region.

A U.S. intervention in Iraq would hit Turkey hard economically as it did during the Gulf

War. It might also take the focus of the country away from economic reforms. These reforms

might all take a back seat. Tuncay Ozilhan, Chairman of the Turkish Industrialists and

Businessmans Association said, In a time when Turkey needs to export more, an operation like

this would really unsettle Turkey economically.42 Indeed, Turkeys fragile economy might

suffer even worse and could drive Turkey into facing a second economic crisis in almost two

years.

41Office of the Vice President, The White House, August 26, 2002, www.whitehouse.gov.42Peter F. Sisler, Ecevit offers help, is wary of involving Iraq, The Washington Times, October 19, 2001.


32/43

28

The damaging effect of a war on the Turkish economy, especially the tourism industry,

is another cause of grave concern. Hence, Turkey will have to continue to walk a diplomatic

tightrope, avoiding direct collisions with U.S. policy without encouraging U.S. government

hawks, by making clear that it hopes military action can be avoided.43Prime Minister Ecevit

expressed his fears of lack of foreign direct investment in case of a possible attack. While the

Iraq issue hangs over us like some kind of nightmare, you cant expect much new investment to

come to Turkey, he said.44

Professor Ihsan Dagi, a visiting Fulbright fellow at the Department of Government at

Georgetown University, also supports this argument: On the economic front, a war against Iraq

would cause Turks to continue to lose millions of dollars for an unforeseeable future, who have

already lost a considerable amount as a result of the sanctions imposed on trade with Iraq since

the Gulf War () It would certainly slow down the flow of foreign capital when it is most

needed to boost confidence in the economy and, no doubt, will hit tourism revenues, the last

stronghold of the Turkish economy.45Turkish Tourism Minister Mustafa Tasar has said that

only a possible U.S. attack on Iraq could hurt tourism revenues for next year. Apart from a

(U.S.) intervention in Iraq there are no winds that can affect us.46

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who visited Ankara in July, assured the

Turkish authorities that the U.S. was against disintegration of Iraq and said, A separate Kurdish

43The Economist Intelligence Unit, Turkey, Country Reports, 1996-2002, www.eiu.com.

44Prime Minister Bulent Ecevits Press Conference, Washington, D.C., January 17, 2002, www.basbakanlik.gov.tr.45Dr. Ihsan D. Dagi, Limits of Turkeys Strategic Partnership with the USA: Issues of Iraq, Democratization andthe EU, May 14, 2002. Article published by Turkish Industrialists and Businessmens Association.46Turkey Sees $10 billion Tourism Revenue in 2002, Reuters , February 27, 2002.


33/43

29

state in the North would be destabilizing to Turkey and would be unacceptable to the United

States.47 Admitting Turkeys vital interests in Iraq, Mr. Wolfowitz eased the tensions among

the Turkish government officials by pledging them that Washington would financially offset

Ankaras any economic losses due to the war against Iraq.48

A possible U.S. military attack against Iraq has apparently two negative dimensions for

Turkey: Political and economic. First, despite Washingtons assurances that integrity of Iraq

would be preserved, it is very difficult to know how events will unfold after the regime in

Baghdad collapses. If Iraq falls apart, Turkey might militarily involve to protect its borders and

its security. Secondly, invasion of Iraq will undoubtedly hurt the tourism sector in Turkey, and

thus its economy. Tourists and particularly visitors from the Western countries would be very

reluctant to travel to Turkey with the fear that their lives somewhat might be in danger.

Therefore, although it seems very likely to happen, a war against Iraq will not be welcome by

Turkey.

The IMF Support

President George W. Bush called Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit after the economic crisis

of February 2001 in Turkey and vowed support,49which in a sense meant IMF support. Since

Washington provides more than 17% of the IMFs funds, the U.S. does have influence when

deciding where the funds should be directed. A three-year Stand-By Arrangement, which was

47Speeches by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, Istanbul, Turkey, July 14, 2002, www.defenselink.mil.48Sedat Ergin, Hurriyet Newspaper, July 18, 2002.49Hurriyet Newspaper, February 24, 2001.


34/43

30

approved by the IMF Executive Board on February 2002, envisages a $17 billion (SDR 12.8

billion) aid package for Turkey. So far, Turkey has drawn almost $12 billion (SDR 9 billion).

The SDR (Special Drawing Rights) is a basket of currencies that consists of U.S. dollar,

British pound and Japanese yen.50 Table 8 shows the expected payments in SDRs to the IMF

until 2006.

Table 8

Projected Payments to Fund

(SDR million, based on existing use ofresources and present holdings of SDRs)

Forthcoming

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Principal 1,223.90 6,122.50 6,031.30 1,132.70

Charges/Interest 337.80 660.80 530.20 199.70 12.80

Total 337.80 1,884.70 6,652.70 6,231.00 1,145.50

Source: The International Monetary Fund

However, in the absence of a major contribution from tourism receipt items, it could be

doubtful whether Turkey will be able to accomplish these payment terms. As stated earlier, the

tourism sector provides the government with the valuable and much-needed foreign exchange.

With the Turkish lira in such disarray, the tourism sector must stay vibrant for Turkey to grow

economically.

Table 9 shows the percentage decline in the number of tourist arrivals from three selected

countries to Turkey for events described earlier, as well as potential declines in the case of a U.S.

attack on Iraq. The possible declines are based on past data. These are best guess estimates that

50The International Monetary Fund, www.imf.org.


35/43

31

have been calculated. As a result of these calculations, one can infer that the $2 billion drop in

revenues in 1999 will amount to a greater than or equal to drop if a war takes place.

Table 9

Potential Calculated Declines in Visitors

to Turkey in the Case of a U.S AttackDecline in Tourist Arrivals from (%) on Iraq

Country

Gulf War

1990/1991

Earthquake

1999/2000

Potential Decline

2003 (and beyond)

Germany -19.9 -18.2 546,000

U.K. -4.3 -1.0 24,000

U.S. -61.5 -37.8 208,000

Source: OECD and calculations from past data

These numbers explicitly mean an early warning for the tourism sector in Turkey for the

year 2003, if the U.S. attacks Iraq in the first months of next year. Since the repercussions of a

possible military action might extend to more than one year, the sector could feel the hardships

beyond 2003.

Further, Table 10 provides a breakdown of GNP, Foreign Exchange Revenues, Exports

and Tourism Receipts. A closer look at the percentage section of the table provides insight into

the possible outcomes of a U.S. attack against Iraq. For example, from 1991 to 2001, the

percentage of tourism receipts compared to the GNP has risen 300%. This highlights the

assertion throughout this paper of the importance of the tourism sector in Turkey. However, a

close inspection of the table shows the precipitous declines in 1991 and 1999. These declines

are to be expected yet again if Turkeys neighbor Iraq is attacked. Second, the foreign exchange

reserve has doubled in this decade. The importance of foreign exchange to pay Turkeys debt


36/43

32

obligations was mentioned earlier. Tourism will be unable to contribute sufficiently to these

reserves if the region is marred by war.

Table 10

Share of Tourism Receipts in GNP, Foreign Exchange and Export Revenues

(billion $) (%)

(1)

GNP

(2)

Foreign

Exchange

Revenues

(3)

Exports

(4)

Tourism

Receipts

(4)/(1) (4)/(2) (4)/(3)

1991 150 29.4 13,6 2,7 1.8 9.2 19.8

1992 158 30,7 14,7 3,6 2.3 11.7 24.51993 179 32,9 15,3 4,0 2.2 12.2 26.1

1994 132 34,6 18,1 4,3 3.3 12.4 23.81995 170 44,7 21,6 5,0 2.9 11.2 23.1

1996 184 54,1 23,2 5,6 3.0 10.4 24.11997 192 61,7 26,3 7,0 3.6 11.3 26.6

1998 207 65,5 27,0 7,2 3.5 11.0 26.71999 185 55,7 26,6 5,2 2.8 9.3 19.5

2000 201 62,5 27,8 7,6 3.8 12.2 27.32001 148 59,4 31,2 8,1 5.5 13.6 26.0

Source: State Institute of Statistics and Central Bank of Turkey

A U.S. attack against Iraq would severely undermine the Turkish economy from a number

of aspects. With its negative impact on the balance of payments and the economy in general,

Turkey lost almost $40 billion in a decade after the Gulf War of 1991. A same result or even

worse seems possible under the present circumstances. One of the main pillars of the economy,

tourism can expect a sharp downward trend as an immediate impact in terms of numbers and

revenues in the tourism sector. In yearly terms, several billions of dollars of decrease in the

tourism revenues should be anticipated, as Turkey will be a front-line state.


37/43

33

Besides, unemployment will rise in the tourism sector as well as in other sectors throughout

the economy. Turkey already has a high unemployment rate of about 15%. Although limited due

to the U.N. sanctions against Iraq, some diminution of the trade activities with other regional

states could be expected in the case of a war. The cost of military preparedness and deployment

will increase budgetary expenditures, which might result in deviation from the IMF program

targets. Investment decisions will have to be delayed and crucial government projects will be

postponed or terminated for saving purposes.


38/43

34

CONCLUSION

Turkey, a secular and democratic country, is passing through difficult times. Currently,

the country is suffering its worst economic crisis since the 1940s. The crisis began in February

2001. However, despite high inflation and other hardships, its economy has started showing

strong signs of recovery after an agreement last year with the International Monetary Fund. The

agreement will provide Turkey with a total of $17 billion in the next three years, of which more

than half has already been transferred. It should be noted that Washington had been the key

advocate of the IMF loans to help Turkey overcome its financial crisis.

Turkey is now among a group of countries that are accepted as the top tourism earners in

the world. In addition to its historical and cultural inheritance, favorable climatic conditions and

abundance of natural resources, the Turkish tourism sector also offers a qualified and reasonably

priced tourism product. With scores of tour guides and travel agents, tourism promotion is done

professionally. It attaches importance that its natural assets are conserved and a sustainable

growth is achieved. The sector tries hard and seeks new initiatives to ensure its continuity.

Indeed, to accomplish a sustainable growth, the tourism industry is changing its emphasis from

volume to a more selective department strategy targeted to improve the quality of a broader

portfolio of tourism experiences.51The investments and reforms made in the tourism industry

beginning in the 1980s, as well as the encouragement of the sector, helped Turkey to become a

major tourist destination and increase the number of foreign travelers visiting the country.

51Yorghos Apostolopoulos, et al., Mediterranean Tourism: Facets of socioeconomic development and cultural

change (New York: Routledge, 2001), 107


39/43

35

The tourism industry is a one of the foremost components of the countrys economy. In

2001, it made up almost 5.5% of Turkeys GNP and 26% of its total export earnings. The

tourism sectors success also has played a crucial role with regard to Turkeys integration into

the world economy. With the knowledge of the tourism sectors huge contribution to its

economy, Turkey has been revising and improving its tourism policies with an aim to increase its

share in the international tourism market.

However, impact of some unexpected externalities has sometimes hindered its further

development. Turkeys geopolitical location has provided it many advantages, but also caused

numerous problems, such as living in a not-so-friendly neighborhood or standing on a major

fault line. As previously stressed, the tourism sector suffered an important slow down after the

Gulf War of 1991 and a serious setback with the earthquake of 1999. The effects of the terrorist

attacks of September 11 have been felt all over the world, including Turkey.

Now, another and growing sign of distress for the tourism industry in Turkey appears in

the horizon. The U.S. insists that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is developing weapons of mass

destruction and therefore should be deposed by using military force. A possible attacks outcome

and political ramifications for the world and Turkey are hard to predict. But its economic impact

on the tourism sector could be very severe, since wars are the biggest enemy of tourism and

travel industry. Its long-term effects could last for years.

Since a war against Iraq is getting closer and there is apparently no escape from it,

Turkey might start developing an interim tourism strategy that could be implemented at least


40/43

36

until the beginning of a new era in the region. The aim of this strategy more than anything

should include innovations to attract tourists to Turkey, despite an ongoing conflict in a country

bordering Turkey. Incentives could be offered to the international tour operators. Prices could be

reduced drastically. Advertisements could be placed on major media outlets. However, this is not

an easy undertaking. To modify a strategy, which has been painstakingly developed in the last

two decades could be frustrating and might not work. But thinking of alternatives could be better

than inaction.


41/43

37

BIBLIOGRAPHY

- Amadeo Fossati, et al., Tourism And Sustainable Economic Development (Norwell, MA:

Kluwer, 2000), 5.

- Association of Turkish Travel Agencies, www.tursab.org.

- Baki Ilkin, Ambassador, Speech, Washington, D.C., January 18, 2000.

-Central Bank of Turkey, Annual Report 2001.

- Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook, (Washington, D.C. 2001).

- Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser, Fox News, May 5, 2002.

- Dr. Ihsan D. Dagi, Limits of Turkeys Strategic Partnership with the USA: Issues of Iraq,Democratization and the EU,May 14, 2002. Article Published by Turkish Industrialists andBusinessmens Association.

- Fareed Zakaria, The Fears of a Muslim Ally,Newsweek, January 28, 2002.

- Helle Dale, Between Iraq and a hard place, The Washington Times, August 21, 2002.

- Hurriyet Newspaper, February 24, 2001.

- J. Diamond, Tourisms Role in Economic Development: The Case ReexaminedEconomic

Development and Cultural Change, v25, n3 (April 1977): 539-53.

- James Kitfield, The Turkish Model,National Journal, March 2, 2002, 9.

-Jim Hoagland, U.S., Russia and Global Entente, The Washington Post,July 25, 2002.

-Office of the Vice President, The White House, August 26, 2002, www.whitehouse.gov.

- Peter F. Sisler, Ecevit offers help, is wary of involving Iraq, Washington Times, October 19,2001.

-Presidential News and Speeches, The White House, July 8, 2002.

- Prime Minister Bulent Ecevits visit to the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, September 19, 2001,www.basbakanlik.gov.tr.

- Prime Minister Bulent Ecevits Press Conference, Washington, D.C., January 17, 2002,www.basbakanlik.gov.tr.


42/43

38

- R. Jeffrey Smith, Turkish Government Fails Quake Test,The Washington Post, August 29,1999, p. A1.

- Rita Cosby, Interview with Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, Fox News, January 19, 2002.

- Robert R. Miller, ThePrivate Sector and Development: Five Case Studies,InternationalFinance Corporation Publications.

- R. Working, Turks Wary of War in Back Yard, The Baltimore Sun, March 27, 2002.

- Robert W. Wyllie, Tourism and Society: A Guide to Problems and Issues (Pennsylvania:Venture, 2000), 122.

- Sedat Ergin, Hurriyet Newspaper, July 18, 2002.

- Stephanie Kinner, Staff Writer, DisasterRelief.Org, September 1, 1999.

- Stephen Kinzer, Crescent & Star (New York: Farrar Strauss & Giroux, 2001), 57.

- The Economist Intelligence Unit, Turkey Country Reports 1996-2002, www.eiu.com.

- The International Monetary Fund, www.imf.org.

- Tourism Policy and International Tourism in OECD Countries, OECD publications.

www.oecd.org.

- Turkey 2001, An International Comparison, Foreign Economic Relations Board (Lebib Yalkin,2002).

- Turkey Sees $10 billion Tourism Revenue in 2002, Reuters, February 27, 2002.

- Turkey Yearbook 2000, Turkish Prime Ministry, Directorate General of Press and Information.

- Turkish Export Promotion Center (IGEME), www.igeme.org.

- Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, www.mfa.gov.tr.

- Turkish Ministry of Tourism, www.turizm.gov.tr.

- Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS), www.botas.gov.tr.

- Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezers Letter to U.S. President George W. Bush, Office ofthe President of the Republic of Turkey, July 3, 2002.

- Turkish Prime Ministry, State Institute of Statistics, www.die.gov.tr.


43/43

39

- Turkish Prime Ministry, Undersecretariat of Treasury, www.treasury.gov.tr.

- Umit Gonulal, Economic Counselor, Turkish Embassy, Washington, D.C., Personal Interview.

July 12, 2002.

- U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Tourism and

Travel Industries, Phone Interview with a Representative from the Office, September 4, 2002.

- U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, Istanbul, Turkey, July 14, 2002,www.defenselink.mil.

- U.S. President George W. Bush, State of the Union Address, January 29, 2002, Washington,D.C.

- U.S. State Department,Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001, May 21, 2002.

- World Bank Development Indicators 2000 CD-ROM.

- World Tourism Organization Data, www.world-tourism.org.

- Yorghos Apostolopoulos, et al., Mediterranean Tourism: Facets of socioeconomic development

and cultural change (New York: Routledge, 2001), 91-111.

Date post:	03-Jun-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	claudlx
View:	227 times
Download:	0 times

Analysis of Turkey Tourism

Documents