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Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume...

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ANALYST MEETING JUKKA ERLUND 18 DEC. 2015 1
Transcript
Page 1: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

ANALYSTMEETINGJUKKA ERLUND18 DEC. 2015

1

Page 2: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

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15

La

test m

onth

Estonia

Sweden

Lithuania

Norway

Latvia

Finland

2

RETAIL TRADE TRENDS IN OPERATING COUNTRIESROLLING 12 MO

Source: Eurostat, excl. motor vehicles and fuels

% (

roll

ing

12

mo

)

Latest

month

Page 3: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

3

Net sales, €m 9,285 9,235 9,166 9,071 9,024 8,881 8,780

Gross margin, % 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.3

Operating profit*, €m 239.3 237.2 237.6 232.6 240.0 248.8 247.2

EPS*, basic, € 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.65 1.69 1.72 1.66

Liquid assets, €m 532 461 503 598 506 843 858

Return on capital

employed*, %9.9 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.2 10.9 11.3

Equity ratio, % 53.2 52.3 54.2 54.5 51.5 52.2 54.2

Capital expenditure, €m 173 181 197 194 202 205 195

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15

*Excl. non.recurring items

KESKO’S KEY FIGURES, ROLLING 12 MONTHS

Page 4: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

4

OPERATING MARGIN BY DIVISIONEXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS

Q1/

2014

Q2/

2014

Q3/

2014

Q4/

2014

Q1/

2015

Q2/

2015

Q3/

2015

Grocery trade 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.9 3.2 3.8 3.8

Home improvementand speciality goods

trade

-4.1 1.0 2.2 0.4 -1.8 3.9 4.2

Car trade 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.0 4.7 3.4 3.5

Total 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.7 1.3 3.4 3.7

Page 5: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

KESKO GROUP’S SALES 1–11/2015

5

1.1. - 30.11.2015 Change, %

€ million Change,

%

in local

currencies

excl. Anttila

Grocery trade, total 4,250.8 -1.7 -0.9

Home improvement and speciality goods trade,

Finland 1,639.3 -12.5 -1.2

Home improvement and speciality goods trade,

other countries 1,448.8 -3.5 +5.6

Home improvement and speciality goods

trade, total 3,088.1 -8.5 +2.1

Car trade, total 707.7 -3.5 -3.5

Grand total 8,054.2 -4.3 0.0

Finland, total 6,512.2 -4.5 -1.8

Other countries, total 1,542.0 -3.4 +7.4

Grand total 8,054.2 -4.3 0.0

Page 6: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION

6

Liquid assets €858m €503m

Interest bearing net

liabilities€-394m €-3m

Equity ratio 54.2% 54.2%

Q3/2015 Q3/2014

Page 7: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

7

ROCE AND ROEEXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS, %

12.4

14.7

10.2

7.4

14.013.1

9.09.8 9.9

11.3

14.0

10.0

14.6

8.1

3.8

8.7 8.8

6.97.7 7.6 8.0

12.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3/2015 target

ROCE ROE

7

Page 8: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN STRATEGICGROWTH AREAS

• Grocery trade

• Building and home improvement trade

• Car trade

• Capital expenditure in range of €250 million / year,

excluding possible acquisitions

• Also acquisitions are considered in all three strategic

growth areas

8

Page 9: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

KEY STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

9

• Turning the market share in the Finnish grocery trade around

• Increasing the building and home improvement trade in Europe

• Strengthening the market leadership in the Finnish car trade

• The best omni-channel customer experience in the trading sector

• One unified Kesko, harvesting synergies

Page 10: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

KESKO TO INVEST IN FINLAND BY ACQUIRING SUOMEN LÄHIKAUPPA

• Kesko has made an agreement to acquire the whole share capital of Suomen

Lähikauppa Oy from the private equity investment firm Triton

• Net sales of Suomen Lähikauppa in 2014 were €999.2 million

• Suomen Lähikauppa has 643 neighbourhood stores and 4,100 employees

• Transaction price of the debt-free acquisition, structured as a share purchase,

is approximately €60 million

• Kesko estimates that its capital expenditure in 2015-2017 will decrease from

the approximately €1 billion announced in the strategy to €750 million,

excluding possible acquisitions

10

Page 11: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

GROCERY TRADE

11

• Net sales €4,684m, change in local

currencies -1.5%

• Operating profit* €185m (4.0%)

• ROCE* 20%

*excl. non-rec. items

Q4/2014-Q3/2015 (12 months)

11

• Strengthening of competitiveness is

progressing as planned

• Price trend in Finnish grocery trade

continues to decline (-1%)

• Sales in Russia in 1-9/2015, change

in local currency +34.5%, in euros

-2.4%

Page 12: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

12

SALES, CHANGE %,IN LOCAL CURRENCIES1-11/2015

OPERATING PROFITEXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS

-4.5

0.6

7.6

-6.0

-3.3

-0.9-1.1

0.5

-0.4

-2.2

0.5

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8% €m

Page 13: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

PROGRESS OF GROCERY TRADE STRATEGY

• Expansion and renewal of store site network and renewal of concepts

• Acquisition of Suomen Lähikauppa

• Improving price competitiveness

• Some 300 K-Menu private label products

• K-Myllypuro boldly tests different food store concepts and models

• Kantar: Store of the Week in the World

• Digital services, such as K-ruoka app

13

Page 14: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

GROCERY TRADE PERFORMANCE, TREND

14

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net sales Volume index

Page 15: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

• Market share of the K-Group’s

building and home improvement

stores has strengthened in Finland,

Norway, the Baltic countries and

Russia

• In Finland, market share has

strengthened by some +1 pp

• Profitablity has improved in 10

consecutive quarters

HOME IMPROVEMENT AND SPECIALITY GOODS TRADE

15

• Net sales €3,351m, comparable

change +1.6%

• Operating profit* €60m (1.8%)

• ROCE* 7%

*excl. non-rec. items

Q4/2014-Q3/2015

15

Page 16: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

16

SALES, CHANGE %,IN LOCAL CURRENCIES1-11/2015*

OPERATING PROFITEXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS

%€m

*excl. Anttila

-0.8

3.1

1.8

-1.4-1.2

3.9

8.7

1.8

2.8

-0.9

6.1

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Page 17: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF BUILDING AND HOME IMPROVEMENT TRADE

• Kesko #5 Europe – strong potential to grow organically or through

acquisitions

• We offer excellent services from a single store network to three different

customer segments

• Business customers

• Project customers

• Consumer customers

• Common core for all operating countries to ensure operating efficiency

• We offer the best digital services on all channels

17

Page 18: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

• In November, VW #2 in new

registrations of passenger cars

• Remedial solution proposals of NOx

vehicles have been presented to

and approved by the authorities

• Repair campaign will start in

Finland next spring, mainly as

software updates

CAR TRADE

18

• Net sales €745m, -3.0%

• Operating profit* €27m (3.7%)

• ROCE* 29%

*excl. non-rec. items

Q4/2014-Q3/2015

18

Page 19: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

19

SALES, CHANGE %,1-11/2015

OPERATING PROFITEXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS

-11.4

-5.3

4.6

-2.5

-9.0

1.3

-2.1

-4.8

-0.1

0.2

-7.3

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12€m

Page 20: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

NEW REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARSIN FINLAND

20

Soure: Statistics Finland

Page 21: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

NEW REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARS 14.12.2015

Brand December

December

mo % Prev. Prev. mo %

Change in

month, % Cum Cum. mo % Cum prev. Prev. mo %

K

u

VOLKSWAGEN 435 13,2 827 11,7 10,5 12 209 11,7 12 988 12,2

TOYOTA 404 12,2 836 11,8 1,5 11 738 11,3 12 558 11,8

FORD 308 9,3 436 6,1 48,4 8 309 8,0 7 424 7,0

SKODA 283 8,6 589 8,3 0,9 9 528 9,1 9 649 9,1

VOLVO 263 8,0 575 8,1 -3,9 7 036 6,8 7 695 7,2

OPEL 155 4,7 193 2,7 68,7 5 252 5,0 4 507 4,2

RENAULT 151 4,6 297 4,2 6,8 2 414 2,3 1 737 1,6

KIA 138 4,2 268 3,8 8,2 6 337 6,1 6 028 5,7

AUDI 137 4,1 496 7,0 -42,0 5 122 4,9 6 285 5,9

NISSAN 132 4,0 342 4,8 -18,9 7 102 6,8 6 437 6,1

HYUNDAI 129 3,9 107 1,5 153,2 2 593 2,5 2 158 2,0

BMW 121 3,7 465 6,6 -45,3 4 547 4,4 5 025 4,7

MERCEDES-BENZ 119 3,6 525 7,4 -52,4 4 882 4,7 5 631 5,3

DACIA 80 2,4 127 1,8 32,3 1 174 1,1 1 358 1,3

PEUGEOT 78 2,4 225 3,2 -27,2 2 652 2,5 2 591 2,4

HONDA 69 2,1 161 2,3 -10,0 2 437 2,3 2 934 2,8

SEAT 57 1,7 159 2,2 -24,7 1 598 1,5 1 801 1,7

CITROEN 54 1,6 152 2,1 -25,4 1 964 1,9 2 257 2,1

MAZDA 41 1,2 54 0,8 59,5 1 596 1,5 1 727 1,6

SUBARU 33 1,0 48 0,7 44,4 1 161 1,1 1 003 0,9

SUZUKI 24 0,7 14 0,2 260,1 642 0,6 648 0,6

MITSUBISHI 23 0,7 82 1,2 -41,1 1 664 1,6 1 578 1,5

FIAT 13 0,4 9 0,1 203,4 178 0,2 195 0,2

LEXUS 11 0,3 20 0,3 15,5 207 0,2 196 0,2

Total 3 307 100,0 7 091 100,0 -2,0 104 231 100,0 106 281 100,0

VV-AUTO TOTAL 629 19,0 1 482 20,9 -15,1 18 929 18,1 21 074 19,8

Page 22: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

CUSTOMER ORDER BACKLOG

22

4 561

5 1465 4055 353

4 956

4 5704 4814 572

5 168

5 6035 5425 405

4 615

5 0185 3655 313

4 8274 598

4 0144 015

4 655

5 2084 854

5 0144 666

5 188

5 7835 639

4 893

4 353

3 7903 946

4 934

5 6695 380

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

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7 000

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/13

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/13

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/13

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/13

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/13

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/13

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/14

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/14

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/14

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9/1

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11

/15

Customer order backlog (pcs) Rolling average 12 mth (pcs)

Page 23: Analyst meeting 181215 - Kesko · Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 ... Net sales Volume index ... • Business customers • Project customers

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