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Analyst MeetingQ3/2017 and 9M/2017
PTT Auditorium 15 Nov 2017
Overview
Q3 & 9M/2017 Performance
Outlook 2018
Contents
1
Overview Performance Outlook
Personal Safety
LTA1 person
(Target = 0)
TRIR0.06
per 200,000 hrs
(Target = 0.10)
Em
plo
ye
e
TROIR0.00
per 200,000 hrs
(Target = 0.13)
Co
ntr
acto
r
Process Safety
Health & Safety Performance 2017
LTA1 person
(Target = 0)
TRIR0.05
per 200,000 hrs
(Target =0.12)
PSE Tier I0 case
(Target = 0)
On Target Off Target
Data: 30 September 2017
Car Accident8 cases
(Target = 6)
Truck Accident
0.06 cases/
1 MKm(Target = 0.05)
Road Safety
2
LTA (Loss Time Accident) TRIR (Total Recordable Injury Rate)PSE Tier 1 (Process Safety Event Tier 1) TROIR (Total Recordable Occupational Illness)
Rewards & Recognitions
SOE Award• Enterprises of the Year 2017 (2nd consecutive years)
• Outstanding disclosure and transparency (3rd consecutive years)
• Outstanding CSR• Outstanding Innovation (8th consecutive years)
(6th consecutive years/ 1st time as Leader)
• Most Consistent Dividend Policy • Strongest Adherence to CG• Best Strategic CSR
Asia Marketing Company of the year 2017by Asia Marketing Federation
Outstanding workplace for 18 Oil Depots and GSP Kanom (7th consecutive years)by Department of Labor Protection and Welfare
Best Thai Brand - PTT Lubricants
Green Industry : Gas Separation Plants (Rayong & Kanom)by Ministry of Industry
Outstanding รฐัวสิาหกจิทมีกีารพฒันาสูค่วามเป็นเลศิดา้นการขบัเคลือ่นแผนงานยกระดบัคุณธรรม และความโปรง่ใสในการด าเนนิงาน ประเภทรางวลัดเีลศิ ดา้น Integrity Culture และ Work Integrity by Office of National Anti-Corruption Commission (ป.ป.ช.)
Brand of the Year 2017-2018• Petro/ Gas Station• Retailer - Coffee
• Excellent CG Scoring Company (9th consecutive years)
• Top Quartile (companies with over 10 Bn.Bt Market Capitalization)
Thailand Sustainability Investment 2017 by SET
3
Q3/2017 Highlights:
Key Events Update (Q3)
• LPG liberalization (1st August)
• NGV price floating: Allowance to adjusted +0.46
baht/kg. for gas quality improvement cost (5th Sep)
• PTT – planned T/A- GSP 5 (SD 20 days, TD 50% 9 days)
- GSP 6 (15 days)
• PTTEP – Oil Sand impairment
Performance (YoY)
Finance (9M/17)
Repayment (PTT Group)
• ¥ 36 Bn of JPY Bond
• Bt 30.1 Bn of THB Loan/Bond
• USD 515 MM of USD Loan/Bond
4
Overview Performance Outlook
Business Performance
Upstream PTTEP
Coal
Midstream Gas
Downstream Oil
Trading
Petchem
Refinery
Infrastructure Power
Bond Buy back
• USD 81 MM (PTT)
Loan Drawdown
• Bt 13.5 Bn (IRPC)
Bond issuance
• Bt 5 Bn (GPSC)
• Bt 10 Bn (PTTGC)
100
500
900
1300
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17
0
5
10
15
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17
10
50
90
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17
NG Prices ($/MMBTU)
* JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan
Key Business Drivers: Gas price remains low while oil price picks up
Note: Figures are average
1,281
Dubai vs FO ($/BBL)
Petchem ($/Ton) FX (USD/THB)
Dubai
FO
HDPE Price
341
PX-Naphtha Spread
JLC*
56.6
55.9
Avg. Pooled Price
43.0
36.6
1,186
346
11.4
8.1
JKM
8.2
33.1
35.9
5
1,103
5* Naphtha (MOPJ)
9.2
7.47.5
30.4
25.8
6.2
7.6
6.5
407
43.2
39.8
1,153
42133.6
35.8
Overview Performance Outlook
1,178
365
53.1
51.1
QoQ YoY
Dubai 1% 31%
FO 2% 49%
QoQ YoY
HDPE 1% 1%
PX-Naphtha 6% 9%
35.6
QoQ YoY
JLC* 1% 19%
JKM 3% 22%
Avg. Pooled 3% 2%
6.06.7
7.3
4.45.3
6.2
5.8 5.6 5.4
43.248.3
35.2
47.7
1,139 1,134
394 388
35.5
35.035.3
5.5
7.7
8.3
49.8
49.0
1,133
368
34.5
8.4
6.0
5.7
50.5
50.2 5.85.6
8.3
1,138
347
Appreciated
0.9 THB/USD (2.6%)
Appreciated (YoY)
1.4 THB/USD (4%)
40,06749,722
8,963
19,35920,044
29,001
5,877
8,657
571
(6,923)
24,750
10,302
7,102 13,131
3,720
18,458 8,813
Margin
FX & Derivatives
OPEX* Depre & Amortiza-
tion
Other Income Int. &
CIT exp.& Other**
9M/16 9M/17
PTTEP
PTT
Others Affi.
P&R
OilMargin declined mainly from lower stock gain Non-oil expansions (Amazon & 7-11)
Gas
GSP margin improved from lower feed cost, higher petchem prices, and increased vol. (9M17: No Major T/A)S&M margin rose
PTTEPImproved ASP from oil price recoveryLower unit costReduced sales volume
9M/2017 Performance: Record nine-month performance: Contributed from most businesses
6* including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties** including profit from discontinued operation
75,522
MMTHB
99,816
Net Income
74,951
Operating Performance
106,739
Petrochem & Refining
Better Olefins due to both prices and vol.Improved MKT GRM Aromatics increased from BZ spreads and sales volume
Impairment Oil Sand (Canada) 558 MMUSD
Dividends from mutual fund
Extra Items
Overview Performance Outlook
24%
116%
47%
45%
PTTNGD : higher FO price & lower feed cost Coal performance improved from higher ASP
Others Affi
Extra Items
Impair
7
ContentsOverview Performance Outlook
Overview
Q3 & 9M/2017 Performance
Outlook 2018
53
-482
43
-291
167 218345
596
48.19 48.46
39.37
49.87
38.08 38.7836.00
38.29
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
E&P : Positive core earnings while NI suffered from one-time impairment
Product Prices
Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
Liquid ($/BBL)
Gas($/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg.
($/BOE)
MMUSD
200 204 224 205
81 9497
90
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Liquid
Gas
KBOED
8
281
305
220(264)
*** Includes Deferred tax from Functional currency, Current Tax from FX Revaluation, Gain/loss from Financial instruments, Gain/(loss)on FX, H1 incident Insurance Claim, and etc.
Non-recurring***
Recurring NI
298321
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
8% YoY
Overview Performance Outlook
1% QoQ
27% YoY
1% QoQ
4% YoY
2% QoQ
6% YoY
QoQ
• ASP slightly increased from the rise of gas price adjustment in Myanmar projects
• Sales vol. rose from recoveries of MTJDA & Bongkot (S/D in Q2)
• NI decreased from impairment of Mariana Oil Sands Project in Canada amounting of 558 MMUSD
YoY
• ASP increased from the rise in oil price
• Sales vol. decreased from PTTEP Australasia & MTJDA
• NI drop from impairment despite higher recurring NI from lower DD&A
21% YoY
295
388
>100% QoQ
5.665.72 5.75
5.54
6% QoQ
9
E&P: Outlook
Overview Performance Outlook
9
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Financial Outlook
9M’17 FY2017
Avg. Sales Vol. (KBOED)
~295 300
Avg. Gas Price ($/MMBTU)
~5.5 ~5.6
Unit Cost(USD/BOE)
~28.4 ~29
EBITDA margin (% of Sale Rev.)
~70
*Based on FY2017 Dubai oil price at 52 $/BBL
Exploration Portfolio• Focus on prolific areas &
Quick Commercialization• Participating in bid rounds
in potential areas
Interest Production Expected Start-up
Mozambique Area 1 8.5% 12 MMTPA 2022/23
Contract 4 (Ubon) 60% 25-30 KBPD 2021
Algeria HBR
Southwest Vietnam
24.5%
7-8.5%
50 KBPD
490 MMSCFD
2023
2021
Priority on New Investments
M&A• Focus on producing or
near-producing
LNG Value Chain• Corporation with PTT in
LNG opportunities
Priority on Pre-Development Projects
Geographical• Thailand, SEA, Middle East• Potential areas
Path to re-tendering of expiring concessions in the Gulf of Thailand
10
Overview Performance Outlook
PTT EBITDA Breakdown by BU’s:
Business Unit Q2/17 Q3/17 QoQ 9M/16 9M/17 YoY
Gas- EBITDA 21,884 20,628 (6%) 51,610 65,002 26%
• S&M 4,003 3,943 (1%) 6,852 11,549 69%
• TM 8,663 8,428 (3%) 24,949 25,828 4%
• GSP 7,041 5,912 (16%) 14,833 20,650 39%
• NGV (1,271) (1,052) 17% (3,019) (3,332) (10%)
• Others 3,448 3,397 (1%) 7,995 10,307 29%
Oil- EBITDA 4,541 4,613 2% 18,675 15,085 (19%)
Trading*- EBITDA 897 686 (24%) 4,059 3,491 (14%)
Total** 27,322 25,927 (5%) 74,344 83,578 12%
(Unit: MMTHB)
*MIS** Included subsidiaries from all BUs 10
8.5 7.9
7.3 6.6
6.2 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.5
6.0 5.8
318
607
265
217
160
219
247
296318
304 312
0
100
200
300
400
5
7
9
11
13
15
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17
797 754 1,010 797
952 972992
946
1,002 1,064 857 1,013
1,006 931 922 982
725 731 715 721
270 265 286 271
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
4,7304,752%QoQ %YoY
FO 2% 49%PooledPrice 3% 2%
12.1
12.312.2 12.1
6.68 6.73
7.81
6.83
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Gas BU: Pooled gas still low, while NG volume decreased from Power
NG Price VS FO NG Customer Breakdown
$/MMBTU
EGAT (17%)
IPP (20%)
SPP (21%)
GSP (21%)
Industry (15%)
NGV (6%)
MMSCFD
4,717
NGV Price/Sales Volume
QoQ
• Gas cost lowered, while F/O price rose following crude oil price
• NG sales volume slightly decreased from GSP’s planned T/A
• NGV volume and prices marginally increased
YoY
• Overall NG sales slightly decreased mainly from lower power demand offsetting with GSP major T/A last year
• NGV vol. dropped from demand switching to gasoline and diesel
Key Highlights
นของ
K.Ton/Day
11
13% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
4,782$/Ton
Fuel Oil*
* MOPS HSFO 180 CST
Avg. Pooled gas price LHS
RHS
1% YoY
•
THB/KG
NGV Avg. price
1% QoQ
1% QoQ
Overview Performance Outlook
1% YoY2% QoQ
1,188
1,375
1,234
1,153 1,103
1,153 1,139 1,134 1,176
1,133 1,138
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17
443
497 470
440 431 427 420 378 375 386 395
380 359 352
310 309 297 288247 250 265 268
65,002
5,005
4,003 3,943 6,852 11,549 8,663 8,428
24,949 25,828
7,041 5,911
14,833
20,650
(1,272) (1,052) (3,019) (3,332)
3,448 3,397
7,995
10,307
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Propane (11%)
Gas - EBITDA
MMTHB
Others
TM
GSP21,884 20,628
S&M
NGV
733 728
2,072 2,179 170 161
533 501
594 539
1,449 1,720
219 171
611 573
11 10
18 32
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
GSP Sales Volume
LPG (44%)
kTon
1,609
7% QoQ
7% YoY
Gas BU: Performance improved from most segments mainly from GSP
NGL (10%)
Ethane (34%)
Key Highlights
GSP Feed Cost vs Petchem price
USD/Ton
Feed Cost*
LPG Ex-GSP
* Revised feed cost calculation from per sale volume to per GSP production volume
Pentane (1%)
1,727
51,610
12
HDPE
26% YoY
QoQ
• GSP dropped from planned T/A although selling prices maintained
• S&M decreased from lower industrial performance
• NGV loss less from increased NGV selling price
• Gas EBITDA decreased mainly from GSP’s maintenances
YoY
• GSP greatly improved from declined feed cost, higher selling price, and
increased sales volume w/o major T/A
• S&M margin increased esp. from Industrial customers
• Gas EBITDA improved in almost all segments, despite NGV
6% QoQ
4,683
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Overview Performance Outlook
%QoQ %YoY
HDPE 0% 2%
LPG Ex-GSP 2% -10%
Feed Cost 1% -12%
LNG Terminal 1 Phase 2 :
- Construction completed
- Initial Acceptance : 6 Jun 2017
New LNG projects :
1) LNG Terminal 1 phase 2 Extension :
(Capacities expansion from 10 MTA to 11.5 MTA)
- Approved by Cabinet 12 Jul 2016
- Expansion capacity: 1.5 MTA
- Construction completed 67.78% (as of Sep 17)
- COD : 2019
2) LNG Terminal 2 (Onshore LNG Terminal No.2)
- Approved by Cabinet 11 Apr 2017
- Capacity: 7.5 MTA
- Sending EIA (Completed Report) to ONEP Jul17
- Preparing for EPC Bidding
- COD : 2022
Additional LNG projects (submitted studies to
CEPA and NEPC on July 2017)
− Myanmar-Thailand LNG Terminal
− FSRUs (domestic)
− Onshore LNG Terminal 3
Gas Business Roadmap
LNG ProjectsNG Country Demand
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Overview Performance Outlook
13
New Project
LNG Ph#2
MajorProject
COD
LNGCapacity
(MTA)
10 10
• Offshore Comp.
• 4th
onshore Midline Comp.
7
• Comp Wangnoi
• Nakhon Ratchasima
LNG Ph#2(Early Sent
Out)
11.5 11.5
LNG Terminal#1 - Extension
11.5
• 5th
Pipeline
Gas Facilities Expansion
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17
881 957 2,508 2,752 3,660 3,656
16,167 12,333
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
1.00
0.74 0.87 0.95
6,408 6,242
19,856 19,428
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
QoQ YoY
Oil 0 % 24%
Non-oil 9% 10%
Oil BU : Soften performance from lower stock gain
MMTHB
THB/Liter
14
Oil
Non-Oil*
Gross margin1/Sales volume2
MM Liter
1/Excluded Non-oil, stock gain/loss, non-recurring item 2/PTT only
9% YoY
2% YoY
-466 1,489 4,300 840
Petroleum Prices
Stock Gain/Loss(MMTHB)
26% QoQ
3% QoQ
Oil - EBITDA
USD/BBL
(Average Prices)
Key Highlights
QoQ
• Gross margin declined mainly from Jet A-1 price structure (Buy M, Sell M-1) following upward price trend in Q3/17 vs declining trend in Q2/17
• Sales vol. decreased mainly due to lower gasoil demand effect from serious flooding situation
• EBITDA increased from stock gain despite lower margin
YoY
• Higher gross margin mainly from strong gasoline demand
• Lower EBITDA mainly from lower stock gain in 9M/17 despite higher margins & non-oil performance
4,6134,541
15,085
Overview Performance Outlook
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
* Domestic only
18,675**
* Revised sales volume in Q1/17 and Q2/17 due to included LPG trade volume with Trading BU (Inter-BU Trade)
*
** Restated
17,922 18,872
55,252 56,107
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
QoQ
• Gross margin & EBITDA decreased mainly from
- Different settlement period of physical/paper hedging for products
inventory management
- Lower domestic condensate margin
• Sales volume increased from higher crude demand of domestic refineries resumption in Q3/17
YoY
• Gross margin & EBITDA declined mainly from slimmer margin per unit due to backwardation market and accounting adjustment (provisional to final price & FX)
• Sales volume improved from expansion of trading activities in Western hemisphere
0.07 0.06
0.09 0.08
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
1 PTT Trading BU + trading subsidiaries: FX Adjusted + derivatives
897 686
4,059 3,491
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Gross Margin1
Trading – EBITDA1
Sales Volume2
Key Highlights
MMTHB
MM Liter
14% YoY
Gross Margin (THB/Liter)
2% YoY
24% QoQ
11% YoY14% QoQ 5% QoQ
Overview Performance Outlook
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
2 PTT Trading BU + trading subsidiaries
15
1 PTT Trading BU + trading subsidiaries: FX Adjusted + derivatives
Trading BU: Performance declined from squeeze margin
59,990
4.94
6.89
4.08
5.81
3.40
8.38
4.43
5.94
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
QoQ YoY
A/C GRM 146% 34%
3,249 7,605
15,420 17,929
1,229
3,247
8,027 6,841
6,603
9,955
15,857
29,740
1,880
-
4,209
2,857
1,214
95
662
2,623
-
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
338 320 253
372 383 360 407 388
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
66% 82% 82% 75%
16
Net Income (100%)
P&R BU : Strong GRM, Olefins and BZ performance except PX
14,17520,902
IRPC
TOP
Unit : MMTHB
16
44,175
Aromatics
BZ-Cond
PX-Cond
USD/Ton
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Overview Performance Outlook
PTTGC
HMCOthers
BTXU-Rate
49.8 50.538.9
51.1
GRM
USD/BBL
A/C GRM*Mkt GRM
Dubai
-1.34 1.73 0.73 0.33StockGain/Loss
*A/C GRM and A/C GIM include effect from hedging gain/(loss)
1,133 1,138 1,132
1,149
1,114
1,149
1,034
1,141
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Olefins
Olefins U-Rate
89% 96%86%
93%
USD/Ton
HDPEPrice
PPPrice
QoQ YoY
BZ 5% 47%
PX 6% 5%
QoQ YoY
HDPE 2%
PP 3% 10%
36% YoY
47% QoQ
P&R : Upcoming Projects
19
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Overview Performance Outlook
2018 2019 2020
UHV Catalyst Cooler
mLLDPE
ME plants2
PO/Polyols
MTP Retrofit
PP Expansionand
PP Compounding
Gasoline Maximization
mLLDPEME
plants2UHV
Catalyst CoolerPO/
PolyolsMTP
RetrofitCFP
CapacityPPE +160 KTAPPC +140 KTA
To capture domestic market gasoline deficit
mLLDPE(400 KTA)
Hexane -1 (34 KTA)
Methyl Ester (200 KTA)
Flexibility of crude selection
and fully optimized UHV
operation
PO (200 KTA)
Polyols (130 KTA)
Ethylene (500 KTA)
Propylene (250 KTA)
upgrade lower value product into
higher value product and
ability to process heavier (cheaper)
crude oil
CAPEX 236 MUSD 1,100 MB 288 MUSD 47 MUSD 1,390 MB 888 MUSD TBA TBA
CODPPE Sep 2017PPC Dec 2017
End 2017 Q1/2018 Q4/2018 2019 2H2020 2H2020 2022
2022
CFP
PTTGCIRPC
TOP
Gasoline Maximization
PP Expansion & PP Compounding
2017
17
27.6 30.7
9.3
77.3
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
6874
45
69
4348
36
47
80
97
56
85
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR Better performance from higher market coal price and cost control
Net income
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMUSD
USD/Ton
1,925 2,086
5,639 5,763
- -
1,415 71
1,925 2,086
7,054
5,834
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
kTon
Jembayan
SebukuAvg.
Selling Price
Total Cash Costs
8% QoQ
Avg. Selling Price* & Cash cost*
New Castle
17% YoY
>100%YoY
22%
54%
52%
30%
QoQ YoY
QoQ
• Cash cost increased from higher contractor expense and royalties linked with Newcastle
• Sales volume increased as plan
• Performance improved mainly from
- Increase in sales volumes & coal price
- One-time CIT refund
YoY
• Cash cost increased from Newcastle linked variable cost
• Sales volume declined mainly from Sebuku temporary suspension
• Performance improved mainly from higher market coal price and cost control
*Average Calorific value ~ 5,500 kcal/kg
Overview Performance Outlook
12%
11% QoQ
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
18
9%
QoQ YoY
Power 49% 9%
Steam 2% 5%
1,365 690
3,796 3,472
1,632 1,597
4,963 4,713
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Combine Cycle : IPP
64.5%
Cogen : SPP32.5%
Renewable2.6%
Combined heat : VSPP
0.4% Hydro Electricity
68%
Cogen: SPP 28%
Renewable4%
815888
2,2812,453
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
Net Income (100%)Sales Volume*
Key Highlights
MMBahtGWh
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC Performance improved from lower maintenance cost and higher share of profit
‘000 Ton
Committed Capacity
PowerSteam
Operating1,410 MW
Underconstruction
512 MW
8% YoY9% QoQ
Present 2019
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Overview Performance Outlook
*sales vol. of Sriracha, Rayong & IRPC-CP phase 1 plants
QoQ
• Lower power sales vol. from IPP as EGAT dispatch instruction and IRPC-CP S/D for commissioning test between phase I&II, also effecting lower steam sales vol.
• Better NI from Rayong Plant with higher electricity price, lower maintenance cost, dividend received from RCPL and income from contractor of IRPC-CP Phase I
YoY
• Lower power sales vol. from lower dispatch to EGAT
• Lower steam vol. from SPP as higher no. of customers S/D in 9M17 and S/D for commissioning test of IRPC-CP
• NI rose as lower NG & maintenance cost, S/D of gas turbine in Q3’16 (Rayong Plant) and higher share of affiliates profit 19
Other Businesses : Power – GPSC
Overview Performance Outlook
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Project Type Capacity COD Construction Progress
as of Q3/17
IRPC-CP Phase 2 (SPP)
Gas-Fired Power Plant
• Electricity: 240 MW• Steam: 180-300 T/H
Q4’17 99.8%
Ichinoseki Solar Power 1GK (ISP1)
Solar • Electricity: 20.8 MW Q4’17 92%
Project Highlight: COD: 2 projects in Q4’17
20
1% QoQ
7%
55%
29%
9%
31,317 22,331
75,522 99,816
30,397 34,495
74,951
107,802
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
49.8 50.538.9
51.1
PTT Consolidated Performance: 9M/2017
Avg. Dubai (USD/BBL) 9M/179M/16
478,788 475,178
1,241,989
1,463,763
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
PTT
P&R
Others PTTEP
Net Income
Unit : MMTHB
EBITDA
Net Income/Operating Performance
RevenueRevenue
EBITDA74,910 87,011
229,058251,182
Q2/17 Q3/17 9M/16 9M/17
21
31%
26%6%
35%
2%
EBITDA
P&R
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
PTT - Oil
& Trading
Net Income
Overview Performance Outlook
YoY32%44%
5%
15%
48%
31%
1%
Revenue
PTT - Oil
& Trading
PTT - Gas
OthersPTTEP
P&R
QoQ29%13%
10% YoY
31% YoY
18% YoY1% QoQ
16% QoQ
6%
18%
46%
29%
1%
36%
23%
10%
30%
1%
12%
53%
27%
8%
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
FITCH (BBB+)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
FITCH (BBB+)
MMTHB
Statement of Financial Position
22
Overview Performance Outlook
Assets/Liabilities slightly decreased :
• Decreased in PPE due to depreciation exp.
• Decreased in cash and cash equivalent and S/T
investment from dividend payment and debt
repayment of PTT and affiliates
AP & Other Liabilities
PPE
Others Non-
currentAssets
AR & OtherCurrentAssets
L/TLiabilities(incl. due within 1 yr)
TotalEquity
MMTHB
Cash & S/T Invest
31 Dec 13 30 Sep 14
1,805,041 1,818,746
1,116,170 1,091,249
374,577 372,414
349,204 349,976
392,380377,452
1,171,597 1,206,550
583,323 547,721
477,411 436,820
1 2 3 4 5
2%
2,232,3312,191,091
30 Sep 1731 Dec 16
0.19 0.17
0.71
0.60
YE16 9M/17
Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0
Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0
Free Cash flow
48,182 103,115
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
185,429 195,453
Ending cash incl. S/T investment
356,032 377,452
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
239,978 215,566
Cash In/(Out)
(54,549) (20,113)
Adjustment
65 (10,459)
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows : 9M/2017
23
Overview Performance Outlook
Operating9M/2016 9M/2017
183,124 205,951
Net Income 75,522 99,816
Changes in assets & liabilities (19,150) (19,582)
Income Tax (29,073) (32,545)
Non-Cash Adjustment 155,825 158,262
Investing9M/2016 9M/2017(134,942) (102,836)
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (82,814) (77,068)
Investment (Sub. & Affiliates & others) (2,015) (23,906)
Current investment (53,025) (5,185)
Dividend/Interest Received 7,506 12,634
Others (4,594) (9,311)
Financing (102,796) (112,769)
Repayment Loans (64,052) (62,029)
Interest paid (23,238) (23,237)
Dividend paid (44,374) (73,320)
Received from share issue 102 3,056
Received from loans/Bonds 23,610 41,639
Others 5,156 1,122
24
Contents
Overview
Q3 & 9M/2017 Performance
Outlook 2018
Overview Performance Outlook
Global Economic Outlook 2018: Global Economy Continuing to Perform Strongly
Euro Area economy: Cyclical Upturn AdvancingBull : - Favorable financial conditions support growth
- Increasingly solid intra-European demand
Bear : - Ongoing push for Catalan independence in Spain adversely affect economic
activity
Bear : - Private investment to slowly pick up
Bull : - Improving merchandise exports & tourism- Government spending & stimulus measures- General Election in Nov. 2018- Improving Competitiveness and Ease of doing business ranking- Higher infrastructure disbursement, particularly from EEC
Thai economy: Robust Economic Performance
Bull : - Proactive fiscal and monetary policies support and stabilize growth
Bear : - Government’s battle to further curb housing and debt risks weigh on growth
China economy: Steady Slowdown in Growth
Overview Performance Outlook
Bull : - Strong labor market support household consumption
- Repair efforts after a brutal hurricane season boost growth
US economy : Sign of Breaking Out of Long-Running Slow-Growth Trend
Bear : - Uncertainty of fiscal policy drag on growth
- Fed’s balance sheet reduction weigh on economic activity
- Uncertainty associated with Trump administration
25
4 Core Areas
15 Projects 5 High Priority Projects
1 U-Tapao Airport and Aircraft Maintenance
2 Sattahip Commercial Seaport
3 Laem Chabang Port Phase 3
4 Map Ta Phut Phase 3
5 High Speed Rail-Eastern Route
6 Double Track Railway
7 Highways & Motorway
8 Next Generation Automotive (EV/AV)
9Aviation Industry, Robotics, Smart Electronics
10 Advanced Petrochemical and Bioeconomy
11 Medical Hub
12 Tourism
13Global Business Hub / Free Economic Zone
14 New Cities, Inclusive Growth
15 Public Utilities
EECi Innovation Hub
EECd Digital Infrastructure
1
2
3
4
5
2
2
5
EECi @ Wangchan Valley• วางแนวทางพฒันาพืน้ที่ EECi• พฒันา Infrastructure ส่วนกลาง
/ Commercial Zone / พลงังานส าหรบัพืน้ที่ EECi
Map ta phut+ Laem Chabangระบบการขนส่งสนิคา้แบบ ไรร้อยตอ่ (Seamless
Operation) ของ Map ta phut phase 3
26
Investments in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC)
Overview Performance Outlook
Summary: Outlook 2018
Business 9M 2017 2018 (Forecast)
Reason
Gas Price ($/mmbtu)
- Henry Hub
- JKM
3.05
6.28
Range
2.9 – 3.3
5.9 – 6.9
HH: • Higher demand from domestic & overseasJKM: • Steady demand growth in the power and
industrial sectors and the emergence of new buyers
• Incremental supply to Asia will depress spot prices
Oil Price ($/bbl)
Dubai Price 51.1
Range
52 - 57
OPEC to extend output-cut deal amid strong demandGeopolitics supports: Iraq vs. Kurdistan/ US to impose new sanctions on IranHigher possibility of U.S. shale oil production
Refinery Margin ($/bbl)
Singapore GRM 7.04
Range
6.8 – 7.0
2017 product cracks spiked in Q2 and Q3 due to Shell’s Pernis refinery shutdown and impact of Hurricane HarveyHigher demand from healthier economic growth
Petrochemical ($/ton) - Olefins (HDPE, PP)
- Aromatics (PX, BZ)
HDPE = 1,149PP = 1,141
PX-Naphtha = 384BZ-Naphtha = 358
HDPE = 1,133PP = 1,103
PX-Naphtha = 355-365BZ-Naphtha = 320-330
Olefins:- More PE availability from US producers- New PP capacity addition from China and IndiaAromatics:- Higher feedstock cost (Naphtha)
Increasing BZ supply (Petro Rabigh, Nghi Son)
Overview Performance Outlook
27
9M/2017
• Gas price remained low while oil price increased
• PTTEP – Performance dropped from impairment
• Gas – Improved margins mainly from GSP and
S&M
• Oil – Performance declined from lower stock
gain
• P&R - Improved performance from GRM and
Petchem spreads and sales volume
• GPSC – Better NI from lower gas & maintenance
costs and higher share of gains
• Coal – Profits surged from higher price
• 9M17 Record high performance (PTT & most
flagships)
Looking Forward (2018)
• Firmer global growth
• Oil price in 2018 to be around 52-57 $/bbl
• General Election expected in Nov
• Expecting bidding for expiring contracts to be
concluded
• SOE & Oil Fund Acts. expected to be effective
• Feed gas cost expected to increase
• Petrochemical spreads and GRM slightly
soften
Key Takeaways
28
Thank youPTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.pttplc.com
Disclaimer
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient,
you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements
that reflect our current views with respect to future events, financial performance and result of PTT’s activities. These views are based on assumptions subject to various
risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ
materially from those projected.
The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTT does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the
estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.
29
29
Infrastructure, 43%
Gas, 4%Oil & Trading, 12%
Other Wholly
Owned Sub. , 4%
Capital Restructuring,
22%
LNG, 14%
Others, 1%
2017 2017(revised)
2018 2019 2020 2021
4,566 3,792 3,887 2,382 2,066 2,304 10,376 9,350 9,036 7,265 7,785 6,736
867 6,410 510
556 597 620
47,215 57,635
51,975
14,313 13,944 7,551
20,637
16,812 36,874
35,970
9,935 40,882
Infrastructure
Investment in whollyowned subsidiaries
Head Office andOthers
Oil and InternationalTrading
Natural Gas
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 339bn (~ $10bn1) during 2017-2021
By Business Unit
Investment in
Wholly Owned
Subsidiaries
40%
102,282
34,327
58,093
83,661
60,486
22017 budget revision approved by BOD on 16 Jun 17
5th pipeline & extension
JV & Investment in 100% owned subsidiaries
Unit: MMTHB
PTT 5-Years CAPEX Plan ̴Bt 339 bn
30
CAPEX revision Y2017:
• CAPEX increased by ~ THB 10.3 bn mainly from
Head Office: LNG value chain opportunistic investment
Wholly owned subsidiaries: Land purchase for LNG Terminal 2
93,9992
1FX rate = Baht 34/$
3131
PTT Group Performance : 9M/2017 (YoY)
31
PTT Group Performance : Q3/2017 (QoQ)
32
Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only) : 9M/2017
33
Free Cash Flow
43,364 52,209
Adjustment
63 111
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
67,524 62,648
Cash In/(Out)
(22,035) (23,675)
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
45,489 38,973
Ending cash incl. S/T investment
97,348 118,906
Operating9M/2016 9M/2017
55,861 54,602
Net Income 62,788 83,768
Changes in assets & liabilities (3,997) (11,924)
Income Tax (5,073) (9,240)
Non-Cash Adjustment 2,143 (8,002)
Investing9M/2016 9M/2017
(12,497) (2,393)
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (16,806) (16,484)
Investment (Sub.& Affiliates & Others) 323 (34,224)
Current investment (17,391) (20,618)
Dividend/Interest Received 24,098 39,912
Others (2,721) 29,021
Financing (65,462) (75,995)
Repayment Loans (27,702) (18,520)
Interest paid (9,956) (8,579)
Dividend paid (28,560) (51,413)
Received from share issue - -
Received from loans/Bonds 756 2,517
Others - -
34
Debt Portfolio
ConsolidatedPTT OnlyUnit : MMTHB
: Cost of debts ~ 4.75%: % fixed-rate ~ 70%: Avg. debt life ~ 8.21 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.29%: % fixed-rate ~ 68%: Avg. debt life ~ 5.85 years
184,091147,592 142,579
368,733325,524 326,801
81,15481,245 62,776
256,588
250,968 214,952
265,245228,837
205,355
625,321576,492
541,753
31 Dec 15 31 Dec 16 30 Sep 17 31 Dec 15 31 Dec 16 30 Sep 17
USD&Other
THB
(31%)
(69%)
(31%)
(69%)
(41%)
(59%)
(40%)
(60%)
Note : Data as of 30 Sep 17 (THB/USD = 33.5324 THB/JPY = 0.30013) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
Cost of debts, % fixed rate, and avg. debt life took into account the derivative transactions. Debt outstanding is reconciled with accounting.
(36%)
(64%)
(44%)
(56%)
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage RiskManaged debt according to financial risk and policy
34
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00%PTT Oil & Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTOR 100.00%Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC** 48.95%PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00%
Associates EquityKeloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00%Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 40.40%PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00%
Others CostPetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00%PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00%Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67%Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.0000090%
Others Fair ValueBangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
Others
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29%PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00%PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00%Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd.* TP 26.00%Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd* GPSC 22.58%
Joint Ventures EquityTrans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00%Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00%District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%PTT Global LNG Co., Ltd PTTGL 50.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00%PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL**50.00%PTT Global Chemical Plc.* PTTGC 49.39%PTT Maintenance and Engineering* PTTME 40.00%PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTES 40.00%PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00%
Joint Ventures EquityHMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44%PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 50.00%PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00%
Refining Subsidiaries ConsolidateThai Oil Plc.* TOP 49.10%IRPC Plc.* IRPC 38.51%
Others Fair ValueStar Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 5.41%
Others Fair ValueDhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries ConsolidateEnergy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00%Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 100.00%PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%PTT Digital Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTT DIGITAL 20.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%PTT International Trading London Ltd PTTTLDN 100.00%
Remark : *The companies have changed their status to subsidiaries due to impact from PACK5** Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business GroupE&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 30 Sep 2017
International Investment
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER 100.00%PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%PTT Global Management Co., Ltd. PTTGM 100.00%
35
3636
Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Sep 2017
CustomersSales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs+ +
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
Reference to Naphtha market price
At GSPs cost (adjusted every 3 months)
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
*
*
*
* EGAT IPP and SPP Supply Margins not more than 2.1525 and 11.4759 respectively
36
GSP 21%
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Industry 15%
Ethane, Propane, LPG
NGL
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
Power Producers 59%
: EGAT 17%
: IPP 20%
: SPP 22%
NGV 5% • Since 16 Jul 2016 : The retail price is set to reflect the natural gas cost but operating cost is still regulated.
• Since 5 Sep 2017 : Allowance to adjusted +0.46 Baht/Kg. for gas quality improvement cost
• NGV retail Price as of 30 Sep,17 = 13.46 Baht/Kg.
Thailand Gas DemandReplace :coal (3,340 MW), AE and EE 30%
Natural Gas : Growth of natural gas upon Government fuel diversification policy for power generation
37
Thailand Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2017-2031): Total ~ 1%: Power ~ 3%: GSP ~ -5%: Industry ~ 1%: NGV ~ -5%
New Plan
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns
Sole owner and operator of entire
gas transmission pipelines in
Thailand (~ 4,000 km), a regulated
business
• IRROE ranges between
12.5% - 18% for transmission
pipeline investment
Supply & marketing of natural gas
provides fixed margin with long-term
contracts of 25-30 years
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total
production 6.7 MTA; are on
petrochemical market price-linked
profit sharing basis
38
Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Gas Separation Plant Capacity
Unit 1 420 MMcf/d
Unit 2 and 3 820 MMcf/d
Unit 4 170 MMcf/d
Unit 5 570 MMcf/d
Unit 6 840 MMcf/d