Analyst webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter and full year 2011 results

ROYAL DUTCH SHELLROYAL DUTCH SHELL

2011 RESULTS AND COMPANY UPDATEFebruary 2, 2012y

1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012


PETER VOSERCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER


DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE

Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or

i ‘‘S b idi i ’’ “Sh ll b idi i ” d “Sh ll i ” d i hi i f i i hi h R l D h Sh ll i h di l i di lcompanies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward looking statements concerning the financial condition results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell All statements other thanThis presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation includingoperations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place p p y q y y y pundue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2010 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 2 February 2012. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.

f


We use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

SHELL

Managing through extreme volatility

Customer and partner focus

Profitability & performance

Sustainability & Value added

Updating our outlook

Through-cycle investment and portfolio Sustainability & growth

Value added technology

g y pchoices


CONTINUED FOCUS ON HSSE PERFORMANCE

injuries – TRCF/million working hours million working hours

‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY

9005l d f

600

700

800

2

3

4Focus on personal and process safety

Rigorous global standards

400

500

0

1

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Industry leader in Sustainable Development

WORKING HOURS (RHS) TRCF


EMPLOYEES AND CONTRACTORS PER MILLION WORKING HOURS; SHELL OPERATED FACILITIES; PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE FOR 2011

ENERGY INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS POSITIVE

ROBUST LONGER TERM FUNDAMENTALS MANAGING SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY

$/bblenergy demand outlook in million boe/d

400

12140

300

400

8

10

100

120

200

4

6

60

80

0

100

0

2

0

20

40

01980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

OILGAS

COALBIOMASSWIND

SOLARNUCLEAR

002008 2009 2010 2011

BRENT (LHS)

HENRY HUB $/MMBTU (RHS)


SOURCE: SHELL ANALYSIS

OTHER RENEWABLESSHELL ACTIVITIES WEIGHTED AVERAGE REFINING MARGIN $/BBL (RHS)

STRATEGY AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Upstream 30

STRATEGY CAPITAL INVESTMENT

$ billion

pProfitable growth; price upsideExploration + resources plays

Downstream 20 UPSTREAM

Optimize re-shaped portfolioSelective growth

Climate change10

Grow gas and biofuelsCCS and energy efficiency

Financial outlook

0'09-'11 average

2012 '09-'11average

2012

DOWNSTREAM

DOWNSTREAM

Investing for growth and competitive payoutThrough-cycle returns and risk management

EUROPEAFRICA, MIDDLE EAST, CIS

AMERICASASIA PACIFIC

i i 80


Increasing our investment; 80% Upstream

IMPROVING OUR PERFORMANCE

$ billion CCS

EARNINGS

30

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN

60%

10

0%

20%

40%

2009-2011

-102009 2010 2011

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS VOLUMES

SHELL OTHER MAJORSUPSTREAMDOWNSTREAM

CORPORATEDIVESTMENTS/OTHER

-20%2006-2008

10

20

3 000

3,300

$ billion kboe/day

40

mtpa

0

10

2,700

3,000

2009 20110

20

2009 2010 2011

LNG (RHS)OIL & GAS 2010 11UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM CORPORATE


CFFO EXCLUDES WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS

REFINING INTAKELNG (RHS)OIL & GAS 2010-11

ASSET SALES CHEMICALS (RHS)UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM CORPORATE

PORTFOLIO + PROJECT PERFORMANCE

DELIVERING NEW PROJECTS

North America: i h

Canada: AOSP 1

Qatar:Q G 4 LNG

Australia(W d id ) Pl t

Oman:H l

Russia: Sakhalin II

Brazil: BC 10

Nigeria: Gbaran Ubie Ph 1

USA: Perdido

tight gas

Norway: G

AOSP-1

Netherlands: Schoonebeek

QatarGas4 LNG

Qatar: Pearl GTL

Oman:Q Al

Iraq:W Q

Singapore: Chemicals

NA: h

(Woodside): Pluto

USA: Port Arthur

Harweel

2009 2010 2011

BC-10 Perdido Gjoa Qarn AlamWest Qurna tight gas

USA: GOM

Indonesia:AbadiFLNG

Car Care

UK:Stanlowrefinery

Mexico:Altamira

Norway:Statfjord

Australia:Woodside

(10%) Germany:

Iraq: MajnoonNigeria:

OML 4/38/41

USA:East Resources

Australia: Arrow Energy

Brazil: BS4/BMS8

Australia:Bow Energy

Nigeria: OML 26/42

Iraq: BasrahGas company

USA: South Texas

Greece:Downstream

e e yChile PakistanUSA:

Eagle Ford

yHeide

refineryAfricaCameroon


START UP DIVESTMENT ACQUISITION/NEGOTIATED ENTRY


SIMON HENRYCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER


DELIVERING OUR STRATEGY 2009 - 2011

2009+ PRIORITIES 2009-2011 DELIVERY

Cost focus

PERFORMANCE FOCUS Corporate reorganization

Downstream portfolio reduction

GROWTH DELIVERY

14 project start-ups

Enhanced free cash flow

$31 billion dividends declared

NEW OPTIONSExploration + business development

Maturing new growth projects


Q4 2011 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

6

CCS EARNINGS CCS EARNINGS Q4 2010 TO Q4 2011

Q4 10 Q4 11

$ billion$ billion

4

5

Q4 10 Q4 11

UPSTREAM 3.4 5.1

DOWNSTREAM (CCS) 0.5 (0.3)

BUSINESS SEGMENTS TOTAL 3.9 4.8

3

4CORPORATE & MINORITIES 0.2 0.0

CCS NET EARNINGS 4.1 4.8

CCS EARNINGS, $ PER SHARE 0.67 0.78

CCS EARNINGS $ PER ADS 1 34 1 56

1

2

CCS EARNINGS, $ PER ADS 1.34 1.56

CASH FROM OPERATIONS 5.5 6.5

0


EARNINGS CCS BASIS, EARNINGS AND EPS EXCLUDING IDENTIFIED ITEMS

EARNINGS AND PERFORMANCE 2009-2011

2020

36100

million boe/d mtpa

UPSTREAM PRODUCTION UPSTREAM EARNINGS

$ billion

OIL & GAS REALISATIONS

$/barrel $/mscf

10101

2

2

4

50

02009 2010 2011

002009 2010 2011

002009 2010 2011

DOWNSTREAM AVAILABILITY

LNG SALES (RHS)

GASOIL OTHER UPSTREAM INTEGRATED GAS

DOWNSTREAM EARNINGS

GAS (RHS)OIL

DOWNSTREAM MARGINS

2010-11 ASSET SALES

95

100

DOWNSTREAM AVAILABILITY% availability

4

$ billion (CCS)

DOWNSTREAM EARNINGS

5002

$/barrel $/tonne

DOWNSTREAM MARGINS

85

90

0

2

2009 2010 2011OIL PRODUCTS CHEMICALS

0

250

0

1

2009 2010 2011ROTTERDAM COMPLEX MARGIN

2009 2010 2011UNPLANNED DOWNTIME


REFINERY AVAILABILITYCHEMICALS AVAILABILITY

OIL PRODUCTS CHEMICALSROTTERDAM COMPLEX MARGIN

WESTERN EUROPE NAPHTHA (RHS)

UNPLANNED DOWNTIME

EARNINGS EXCLUDE IDENTIFIED ITEMS

RETURNS & CASHFLOW PERFORMANCE 2009-11

120

RETURNS CASHFLOW 2009-2011

$ billion $ billionSOURCES USES40%250

80

100

30%

150

200DOWNSTREAM

40

6020%

100

150

UPSTREAM

DOWNSTREAM

0

20

0%

10%

0

50

UPSTREAM

UPSTREAM

00%02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

CAPITAL IN SERVICECAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION/OTHERRETURN ON CAPITAL IN SERVICE (RHS)RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED (RHS)

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS

DIVIDEND AND BUYBACK

ASSET SALES CAPEX + EQUITY ACC. INVESTMENTS

ACQUISITIONS


RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED (RHS) DIVIDEND AND BUYBACK

CFFO EXCLUDES NET MOVEMENTS IN WORKING CAPITAL

PERFORMANCE FOCUS 2009-2011CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT+ CAPITAL EFFICIENCYDIVESTMENTS 2009-2011 ACQUISITIONS 2009-2011

$17 billion

$15billion

Bi f l B ilDOWNSTREAM

UPSTREAM

R il Af iDOWNSTREAM

UPSTREAM

Growth oil + gas:• East Resources, Arrow, liquids-rich

shales, Abadi, Basrah Gas Company

Refocus Downstream: • Europe; Africa; Latin-America

Biofuels, Brazil DOWNSTREAM

Retail, Africa DOWNSTREAM

, , p y• New exploration acreage

Growth Downstream:

Late life/non-strategic Upstream • Upstream ~120 kboe/d • Woodside (10%), South Texas,

C P ki h


• Brazil biofuels, retailCameroon, Pakistan, others

GROWTH DELIVERY 2009-2011CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION

35

billion boe resources

Carmon CreekGeronggong

BC-10 Ph. 3 (Massa)

25

Longer-term upside

Prelude FLNGAOSP debottl.

Tempa RossaFram

M lik i

15

NA tight gas /shales

Clair Ph2Schiehallion

Pearl GTL Pluto (Woodside)

MalikaiAOSP debottl. + QuestNA tight gas/shales

5

Pearl GTLQatarGas-4Schoonebeek

Qarn Alam EORWest Qurna 1 IPT

( )Harweel

NA tight gas/shalesEagle Ford

2010 2011-5

2008 2009

Growing opportunity funnelPRODUCTIONON-STREAM STUDYUNDER CONSTRUCTION

2012


g pp y12 bln boe on stream, maturing additional ~20 billion boe

GROWTH DELIVERY 2009-2011DELIVERING OUR TARGETS

5050

million boe/day

PRODUCTION

$ billion

CASH FLOW

2010 2011

30

40

30

403.5

2010-2011:EXTERNAL /CHOICE

20

30

20

30

3.0

0

10

0

10

2.52009 2010 2011 2012 2009 20122011

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS DIVIDEND + BUYBACKNET CAPITAL INVESTMENT

2010* *

2010+2011 KEY PROJECT START-UPSGULF OF MEXICO MORATORIUM IMPACT

PSC/OIL PRICE2010-11 ASSET SALES

EXTERNAL /CHOICE


NET CAPITAL INVESTMENT

* PRODUCTION TARGET SET IN MARCH 2010 SHOWN AT $80 BRENT / $6 HH CFFO EXCLUDES NET MOVEMENTS IN WORKING CAPITAL* CFFO TARGET SET IN MARCH 2010 ASSUMED $60-$80 BRENT/$6 HH AND IMPROVEDDOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT VERSUS 2009

2010+2011 KEY PROJECT START UPS2009 BASE

ROYAL DUTCH SHELLROYAL DUTCH SHELLUPDATING OUR PRIORITIES


2012+ PRIORITIES

12 billion boe resources on stream

D i hfl thCONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

Drive new cashflow growth:

+30-50 % CFFO 2012-15 versus 2008-11*

Maturing >60 projects; ~20 billion boe resources

GROWTH DELIVERY

MATURE NEW OPTIONS

Exploration + bolt-on deals

2017-18 production potential ~4 mboe/d average

MATURE NEW OPTIONS

PERFORMANCE FOCUS


* CFFO OUTLOOK @$80-$100/BBL BRENT AND ASSUMES IMPROVED US GAS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM 2011; CFFO EXCLUDES WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS

2012+ OUTLOOKCONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENTUNPLANNED DOWNTIME

Offer to cashInventory management

PROCESS EFFICIENCY OPPORTUNITIES

9

%

y gWell and reservoir managementMaterials managementAsset maintenance and integrity3

6

CHEMICALS REFINING

Indexed Well Delivery Time per year since first production

TIGHT GAS/SHALE DRILL TIME

02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

CHEMICALS REFINING

PROCUREMENT: LOW COST COUNTRIES

# of suppliers $ billion

50

75

100Pinedale - 2002Early Deep Basin - 2006Deep Basin - 2008*Haynesville - 2008Groundbirch - 2008 2

3

100

150

200

250

SPEND

QUALIFIED

BEING QUALIFIEDSUPPLIERS

0

25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Years

0

1

0

50

100

2008 2009 2010 2011


Performance focus

ROYAL DUTCH SHELLROYAL DUTCH SHELL2012+ GROWTH PROJECTS


GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+KEY PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

North America tight gas

AOSPDebottlenecking

Clair Ph2Schiehallion

Redevelopment

CorribKashagan Ph1

Eagle FordMars B

Cardamom


Majnoon FCP

Harweel

Amal Steam

UAE

Gumusut-KakapSabah Gas

Port Arthur

RESOURCES

Bonga NW

BC-10 Phase 2

pSabah Gas Kebabangan

Pluto LNG T1 (Woodside) Gorgon LNG T1-3

North Rankin 2

Prelude FLNGWheatstone LNG

20

30

billion boe

2012-13

2016+2014-15

START-UP DATE Greater Western Flank Ph 1

0

10

Under Construction


26 projects under construction

GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+ MAINTAINING LNG LEADERSHIP

40.0

SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY GROWTH

Wh

mtpa

AUSTRALIA – INDONESIA: 2011 PROGRESS

Abadi entry• Inpex 60%• Shell 30%• EMPI 10%

20.0

Wheatstone& Prelude

Gorgon T1-3

Pluto T1 (Woodside)

Prelude FLNG

Abadi FLNG

Greater Sunrise

EMPI 10%2012 FEED

FIDs

Browse 0.02011 ~2020+

SHELL LNG LEADERSHIP

ONSTREAM CONSTRUCTION OPTIONS

Pluto (Woodside)

Prelude FLNG

Wheatstone

G

North West Shelf

FIDs

20

30

year end mtpa~90% long-term contracted~80% of portfolio oil price linked

SHELL LNG LEADERSHIPArrow Energy LNG:Bow Energy acquisitionShell-PetroChina 50/50

PRODUCTION

Gorgon

0

10

0

Sh ll E Ch BG T l BP

~20 mtpa on-stream ~8 mtpa under construction

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

OPTIONS


Shell Exxon Chevron BG Total BPp

Assessing ~ 15 mtpa future options 2011 2017

PROJECTS ONSTREAM OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION

GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+ REGAINING MOMENTUM IN GULF OF MEXICO

Vito~100 kboe/d potential

Appomattox~100 kboe/d hub potential

Mars

Nakika

100 kboe/d potential>200 million boe resourcesShell 55% (operator)

100 kboe/d hub potential Appraisal drilling underway> 250 million boe resourcesShell 80% (operator)

Mars-BW B S D i

Auger

Ursa

Brutus

P did

Cardamom Deep

W.Boreas, S. Deimos

Caesar TongaFID START-UPDISCOVERY

100 km

Mars-B, Olympus tension leg platform

HolsteinPerdido

Stones45 kboe/d potentialShell 35% (operator)

Caesar TongaMars B

Cardamom

Stones

A tt

UNDER CONSTRUCTIONONSTREAM OPTIONS

( p )

2005 2010 2015 2020

Appomattox

Vito

~185 kboe/d 2011- ~350 kboe/d potential ~2017


pDrilling 5+ exploration wells 2012

GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+ INVESTMENT IN UPSTREAM HEARTLANDS

F a r o e Is l a n d s

8ºW 6º 4 º 2 º 0º 2ºE

0 50S cale

km

F aroeC on tinen ta l

S he lfW est o f

S h tl d

UK: ATLANTIC MARGIN AUSTRALIA: NWS LNG JV MALAYSIA

S h e t la n dIs la n d s

O r k n e yIs la n d s

F o in a v e n

C la irS c h ie h a l l io n

W est ofS hetla nd

C ontin entalS he lf

S hetla ndS lope

W e s t e r nIs le s

S c o t la n d

Schiehallion (Shell 36%)• N FPSO

Operating since 1989D li d 3 000 LNG

Sabah Gas Kebabangan• I t t d d ti l tf• New FPSO

• ~130 kboe/d

Clair Ph 2 (Shell 28%)20 kb /d

Delivered >3,000 LNG cargoesDeveloping new gas resources:• North Rankin ~280 kboe/d• GWF Phase 1 ~110 kboe/dSh ll 2 %

• Integrated production platform • ~130 kboe/d• Shell 30%

O• ~120 kboe/d Shell 21% EOR• Extending 2 PSCs with Petronas• ~100 kboe/d potential• Shell 40-50%


PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION GROUP PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

100%Region Theme

100%

75%Gorgon LNG, Australia

60%

70%

80%

90%

25%

50%

Mars-B, USA

20%

30%

40%

50%

0%2011 2017

AOSP debottlenecking Canada

0%

10%

20%

2011 2017

AMERICASASIA PACIFICEUROPEMIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, CIS HEAVY OIL & EOR

TIGHT/SHALE OIL/GASINTEGRATED GAS

DEEPWATER

AOSP debottlenecking, Canada


AMERICAS INTEGRATED GASTRADITIONAL

Bonga North West, Nigeria

ROYAL DUTCH SHELLROYAL DUTCH SHELLMATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONSOPTIONS


MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONSDOWNSTREAM: SELECTIVE GROWTH

6

2012 CAPEX

UK Retail

$ billion

2

4

Qatarchemicals

Gas-to-chemicals

UK Retail

Port Arthur

Lubes RussiaLNG to transport

Rhineland Connect

China Retail + LubesChina refining and chemicals

0CHEMICALS

MARKETING/OTHER

REFINING

GROWTH

BASERaízen

UNDER DEVELOPMENTOPTIONS2011 DEALS

and chemicals

Qatar chemicalsSingapore chemicals Raízen Port ArthurNanhai chemicals

Gas-to-chemicals US

China

2006 2010 2011 2012 FUTURE


Value chains and leveraging our brand

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS 2011 EXPLORATION + BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT 2011 EXPLORATION & ACQUISITIONS

4

RESOURCES MATURATION / POTENTIAL

Cl i

billion boe

MarcellusE l F d

2

Z d

Clair

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Groundbirch

China tight gas

Eagle FordIraq

Arrow

AbadiLiquids-rich

shalesGroundbirch

0

'08 '09 '10 '11

Zaedyus

Acme West

Vos

TologbeneEagle Ford

Arrow

Satyr-3OIL

GAS

-2

2011 delivery:

APPRAISALDISCOVERY NEW EXPLORATION ACREAGE

RESOURCES PLAY ENTRY

Arrow

2011 delivery:2.3 billion boe exploration + appraisal>4 billion boe E&A + deals~; ~30% tight/shale gas

>140,000 km2 new acreage in 2011

EXPLORATION/APPRAISAL

DISPOSALS

PRODUCTION

RESOURCES-BASED DEALS


2008-11 delivery: ~13 billion boe at $2-3/boe (E&A + deals)

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS 2011 DRILLING SUCCESS

WEST AUSTRALIA GAS FOR LNGFRENCH GUIANA – NEW PLAY OPENER

F h G i

Satyr-3 Acme West 1&2

Guyana – Stabroek

French Guiana –Guyane Maritime

Shell 45%

Zaedyus (GM-ES-1)NWS LNG

Vos-1y

Shell 50%* Gorgon LNG

>300 million boe (100% basis) in Zaedyus discovery; upside identified

New gas discoveries in 2011

23 di i i 2005 12 f Sh ll

DISCOVERY0 100 200

Kilometers

1 exploration well and Zaedyus appraisal 2H 2012

Multiple targets across 63,000 km2 in French Guiana & Guyana deepwater

23 discoveries since 2005; 12+ tcf Shell share added at <$1/boe finding cost

Shell average 40%


* INCREASE PENDING GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS EXPLORATION: CONSISTENT DELIVERY OF NEW RESOURCES

3

RESOURCES DISCOVERED RESOURCES POTENTIAL

billion boe

1

2

Z d

Cardamom Deep

VitoWest BoreasG

Amal SE

S h D i

Appomattox

0'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

TRADITIONAL OIL/GAS INTEGRATED GAS2009-2011 KEY FINDS

TIGHT/SHALE OIL/GAS

Zaedyus

Acme WestVos

Tologbene

Satyr

AchillesConcerto

Yellowglen Kentish KnockBrederode

Acme

Geronggong

Gato do Mato

Massa

South Deimos

EXPLORATION PERFORMANCE%

~15 billion boe discovered 2002-2011100%

Yellowglen Kentish Knock

Strategic shift to OECD

Stepped up spending in 2005

Renewed spending + activity increase 2011-20120%

50%

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11


DISCOVERED RESOURCE POTENTIAL

e ewed spe d g ac v y c ease 0 0% OECD SUCCESS RATE

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS STEPPING UP 2012 EXPLORATION PACEEXPLORATION SPEND

Alaska

2012 EXPLORATION SPEND

Gulf of Mexico (5)Saudi Arabia (1)

Kazakhstan (1)

China

Alaska

N. America tight gas

N. America liquids-rich shales

Brazil (1)

Fr Guiana (2)

Australia offshore (5)

Gabon (1) &Nigeria (1)

Brunei (4)

Australia onshore CBM

2012 DRILLING PLAN (# WELLS)New Zealand (1)

INTEGRATED GASDEEPWATERTRADITIONAL

TIGHT / SHALE OIL/GAS20 -25 key well & play tests in 2012 in Australia NWS, GoM, and tight/shale gas

Frontier drilling weighted to deep water and liquids-i h h l l


rich shale plays

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS BUILDING WORLD-WIDE TIGHT GAS + LIQUIDS-RICH SHALES PORTFOLIOSHALES PORTFOLIO

Pinedale

GroundbirchDeep BasinFoothills

Utica

Turkey

Bakken

Niobrara

GermanyMontney

Canol

Ukraine

Wells Manufacturing JV with CNPCMarcellus

EgyptWolfcamp

Turkey

Oman

Colombia

Mississippi Lime

Eagle Ford

MontereyHaynesville

China tight gas

Wells Manufacturing JV with CNPCMarcellus

N

Colombia

TIGHT GAS

Drilling rig – Alberta

~50,000 km2 (~12 million acres) acreage world wide

NeuquenLIQUIDS POTENTIAL

2011 ENTRY

TIGHT GAS


~12,000 km2 (~3 million acres) liquids-rich shales added 2011; ~$2 billion, ~$825/acre

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS LIQUIDS-RICH SHALES AND TIGHT GAS OUTLOOK2012 PRIORITIES + OUTLOOK GLOBAL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

Annual investment decisions + flexibility

kboe/day bcfe/day

3001 5

2.0

y

Focus on lowest cost North America gas Spending at low-end of potential range

0

100

2001.0

0

0.5

1.5

Eagle Ford liquids-rich shales development

Appraisal of new liquids-rich shale acreage

GAS SOUTH TEXAS DISPOSALLIQUIDS

2012 CAPEX* ~$6 billion

02008 2010 2011 2012

0

Appraisal of new liquids rich shale acreage>250 kboe/d potential 2017

NORTH AMERICA GASINTERNATIONAL GAS

EXPLORATION + APPRAISAL

DEVELOPMENT

LIQUIDS-RICH SHALES


* EXCLUDES ACREAGE PURCHASES

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONSNORTH AMERICA GAS VALUE CHAINSLEVERAGE SHELL INTEGRATION KNOW-HOW

G i t il i i t it

Fort Mc MurrayFort St John

Grande Prairie

EXAMPLE: COMMERCIALISING LNG FOR TRANSPORT

Gas into oil pricing opportunity

Assessing gas potential:

Canada Green Corridor FID 2011FID for 0.3 mtpa LNGLong distance truck fuelLNG retail infrastructure

Edmonton

C l

Grande Prairie

• LNG-for transport Canada

• Western Canada LNG

Calgary

Jumping PoundVancouver

ENGINES MODIFIED FOR LNG• Western Canada LNG

• Gas-to-chemicals in Appalachia

• GTL options• GTL options


Canada: Jumping Pound Gas Plant LNG powered truck

MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONSIRAQ OIL & GAS

Majnoon

BASRAH GAS COMPANY (BGC)WEST QURNA 1 + MAJNOON

BASRAHSouth Gas Processing PlantsRumaila Zubair

West Qurna1

South Gas LPG Terminal

B l di i k t th OIL FIELDS WITH SHELL INTEREST

November 2011 Joint Venture approved

~2 bcf/d wet gas feedstock

Barge unloading pipe racks at the Majnoon Jetty, Shat-al-Arab waterway

West Qurna 1 • Rehabilitation program progressing• Cost recovery commenced

OIL FIELDS WITH SHELL INTERESTGAS SUPPLIES FOR BGC

~ 700 msfc/day currently flared

Phased development approach• Domestic gas, 35 kboe/d condensate, 5 mtpa LPG• Long term LNG export potential

Cost recovery commencedMajnoon: • Drilling programme under way for FCP3-6 month conversion of capex to cash flow post-FCP/IPT


g p p

Shell 44%

MATURING NEXT GROWTH OPTIONS MATURING NEW PROJECTS 2012+

Long-term growth and investmentTIGHT GAS – N. AMERICA CARMON CREEK - CANADA

Options to flex annual spending with macro

Capex and growth outcomes

Investment decisions driven by

Portfolio fitARROW - AUSTRALIA APPOMATTOX - USA

o o o

Affordability

Profitability

Maturing 36 project options

y


Portfolio can support profitable growth to ~2020

ROYAL DUTCH SHELLROYAL DUTCH SHELLFINANCIAL FRAMEWORK


CAPITAL INVESTMENT

capital investment $ billion

SchiehallionR d l t

Thematic

STRONG PROJECT FLOW DRIVES INVESTMENT GROWTH

30 Clair Ph2AOSP Debottlenecking Redevelopment


Basrah Gas CompanyUS chemicals

NA LRS

Eagle Ford

U TIGHT/SHALE OIL/GAS

HEAVY OIL & EOR

EXPLORATION

UK RetailLNG for transport

M B20

Wheatstone LNG

Cardamom Sabah Gas Kebabangan

Prelude FLNGRaízen

Abadi FLNG

Qatar chemicalsEagle Ford

NWS GWF Ph1

PSTREAM

INTEGRATED GAS

DEEPWATER

BC-10 Ph2

Mars-B

10

Wheatstone LNG

FID 2010-2011

2011 PORTFOLIO GROWTH

TRADITIONAL

DOWNSTREAM

BC-10 Ph2

20120 $ billion 2010

2011 Target 2011

2012 Target

Organic investment 24 28 26 ~32

Acquisitions 7 2.5 5

Disposals (7) (5) (7) (~2-3)


Net Capital Investment 24 25-27 24 ~30

GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+UPDATING OUR GROWTH OUTLOOK

200

$ billion

4.0

million boe/day

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION + OUTCOMES SUSTAINED CASH FLOW GROWTH

$100/bbl200

150

200

$87/bbl Brent

$80/bbl

3.5

$100/bbl

150

200

100

3 0

100

50

3.0

50

02008 -2011 2012 – 2015

POTENTIAL

2.52009 2010 2011 2017-18

average

PRODUCTION + POTENTIAL

2010-11 ASSET SALES

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS

NET CAPITAL INVESTMENT

DIVIDENDS AND BUYBACKS

0


FUTURE ASSET SALES AND LICENSE EXPIRIES

PRODUCTION OUTLOOK @ $80/BBL BRENT. CFFO OUTLOOK ASSUMES IMPROVED US GAS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM 2011; CFFO EXCLUDES WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS

UPSTREAM GROWTH OUTLOOK

2008 2011Middle East,

f

$ billion

UPSTREAM REGIONAL CASH FLOW SCENARIO PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

billion boe

2008 -2011

2012 – 2015 POTENTIALAmericas

Africa, CIS

Europe

3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

TOTAL PRODUCTION (BILLION BOE)

Asia PacificOutlook for enhanced cash growth

0 5 10

AVERAGE CAPEX 2008-11

2011 CFFO

Cash flow growth > production growth

Growth investment led by Americas and Asia Pacific


CFFO EXCLUDES WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS

AVERAGE CAPEX 2012-15Pacific

FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK

CASH PERFORMANCE

+30-50% CFFO 2012-15 versus+30 50% CFFO 2012 15 versus 2008-11Growth free cash flowCFFO drives investment + payout

INVESTMENT

$30 billi t 2012

PAY-OUT

Dividend linked to business results ~$30 billion net capex 2012Affordability, profitability, portfolioScrip dividend with buy back offset

~$10.5 billion 2011

BALANCE SHEET

0 – 30% gearing through cycleBalance sheet underpins investmentCapital employed grows steadily



p p y g y

ROYAL DUTCH SHELLROYAL DUTCH SHELLSUMMARY


SUMMARY

2012+ PRIORITIES

12 billion boe resources on stream

D i hfl thCONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

Drive new cashflow growth:

+30-50 % CFFO 2012-15 versus 2008-11*

Maturing >60 projects; ~20 billion boe resources

GROWTH DELIVERY

MATURE NEW OPTIONS

Exploration + bolt-on deals

2017-18 production potential ~4 mboe/d average

MATURE NEW OPTIONS

PERFORMANCE FOCUS



ROYAL DUTCH SHELLROYAL DUTCH SHELLQ&A


Phase Project Country Shell share Peak pro- LNG (100%) Products Theme Shell

KEY PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

(direct & indirect) %

duction 100%kboe/d

capacitymtpa

operated

2012-13 AMAL STEAM OMAN 34 20

AOSP DEBOTTLENECKING CANADA 60 10

BAB THAMAMA G and BAB HABSHAN-2 UAE 9.5 80

BC-10 PHASE 2 BRAZIL 50 35

CAESAR TONGA PHASE 1 USA 22 40

EAGLE FORD USA 100 45

GUMUSUT-KAKAP MALAYSIA 33 135

HARWEEL OMAN 34 40

KASHAGAN PHASE 1 KAZAKHSTAN 17 300

MAJNOON FCP IRAQ 45 >30+

NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS * USA / CANADA Various ~125

NORTH RANKIN AUSTRALIA 21 280

PLUTO LNG T1 (WOODSIDE) AUSTRALIA 21 140 4.3

PORT ARTHUR REFINERY EXPANSION USA 50 325 kboe/d DSSAS UAE 9 5 115SAS UAE 9.5 115

2014-15 BONGA NORTH WEST NIGERIA 55 45

CARDAMOM USA 100 50

CORRIB IRELAND 45 45

GORGON LNG T1-3 AUSTRALIA 25 440 15

MARS B, W. BOREAS & S. DEIMOS USA 72 100,

SABAH GAS KEBABANGAN (KBB) MALAYSIA 30 130

2016+ CLAIR PH2 UK 28 120

NWS GAS - GWF - PHASE 1 AUSTRALIA 21 110

PRELUDE FLNG AUSTRALIA 100 110 3.6 +1.7 mtpa NGLs

SCHIEHALLION REDEVELOPMENT UK 36 130


WHEATSTONE LNG AUSTRALIA 6.4 260 8.9

* SHELL SHARE: SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT PACE

+ SHELL ENTITLEMENT AT $80

HEAVY OIL & EOR TIGHT/SHALE OIL/GASINTEGRATED GASDEEPWATERTRADITIONAL

STRONG PORTFOLIO OF PRE-FID UPSTREAM OPTIONS POTENTIAL 2014-2020 START-UPS

Phase Project Country Shell share(direct & indirect)

%

Peak pro-duction 100%

kboe/d

LNG (100%) capacity

mtpa

Theme Shell operated

CONCEPT ABADI FLNG PHASE 1 INDONESIA 30 65 2.5

SELECTION AOSP DEBOTTLENECKING CANADA 60 55

APPOMATTOX USA 80 100

BASRAH GAS COMPANY REHAB & REJUVENATION IRAQ 44 0

BC 10 MASSA (PHASE 3) BRAZIL 50 20BC-10 MASSA (PHASE 3) BRAZIL 50 20

BONGA NORTH NIGERIA 55 200

BOSI FIELD DEVELOPMENT NIGERIA 44 130

CARMON CREEK EXPANSION PHASE 2 CANADA 100 40

GERONGGONG BRUNEI 50

GORGON T4 EXPANSION AUSTRALIA 25 250 5

MAJNOON FFD/WEST QURNA FFD IRAQ 45/15 100-200

NIGERIA NLNG TRAIN 7 NIGERIA 26 220 8.4NIGERIA NLNG TRAIN 7 NIGERIA 26 220 8.4

PEARLS - KHAZAR KAZAKHSTAN 55 50

SUNRISE LNG AUSTRALIA 34 120 4.1

TUKAU TIMUR MALAYSIA 50 40

VITO USA 55 100

ZABAZABA NIGERIA 50 135

ZAEDYUS FRENCH GUIANA 45

DESIGN AOSP DEBOTTLENECKING CANADA 60 20

ARROW ENERGY LNG AUSTRALIA 50 170 8

BONGA SOUTH WEST NIGERIA 44 200

BOKOR PHASE 3 MALAYSIA 40 30

BROWSE (BCT) LNG AUSTRALIA 20 310 >10

CARMON CREEK EXPANSION PH 1 CANADA 100 40

ERHA NORTH PH 3 NIGERIA 44 40

FORCADOS YOKRI INTEGRATED PROJECT (FYIP) NIGERIA 30 100

FRAM UK 28 35

GBARAN UBIE PH 2 NIGERIA 30 200

LINNORM NORWAY 30 50

MALIKAI MALAYSIA 35 60

NORTH AMERICAN TIGHT GAS* USA/CANADA Various >400 Various

NORTH AMERICAN LIQUIDS RICH SHALES* USA/CANADA Various ~175

RABAB HARWEEL INTEGRATED PROJECT OMAN 34 40

N A 4HEAVY OIL & EORDEEPWATERTRADITIONAL


STONES USA 35 45

SOUTHERN SWAMP AG NIGERIA 30 85

TEMPA ROSSA ITALY 25 45

* SHELL SHARE: SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT PACE

+ SHELL ENTITLEMENT AT $80

TIGHT/SHALE OIL/GASINTEGRATED GAS

2009-2011 DRILLING PERFORMANCE

Start up Well name Country Shell Share Location Water depth Oil/Gas Shell% Operated

2009 Achilles-1 Australia 25% Offshore ~1150m G

Cardamon Deep US, GoM 100% Offshore ~870m OG

Concerto Australia 100% Offshore ~280m G

Yellowglen Australia 25% Offshore ~1300m G

Kentish Knock Australia 50% Offshore ~1220m G

Satyr Australia 25% Offshore ~1100m G

Vito US GoM 55% Offshore ~1200m OVito US, GoM 55% Offshore ~1200m O

West Boreas US, GoM 100% Offshore ~960m O

2010 Brederode-1 Australia 50% Offshore ~1387m G

Acme-1 Australia 33% Offshore ~878m G

Geronggong-2 Brunei 50% Offshore ~1000m O

Amal SE Oman 34% Onshore - O

Gato do Mato Brazil 80% Offshore ~2000m O

Massa Brazil 50% Offshore ~1600m O

South Deimos US, GoM 100% Offshore ~960m O

Cardamon Deep s/t US, GoM 100% Offshore ~870m OGCardamon Deep s/t US, GoM 100% Offshore 870m OG

Appomattox US, GoM 80% Offshore ~2200m O

2011 Tologbene Nigeria 30% Onshore - G

Acme West Australia 33% Offshore ~925m G

Zaedyus French Guiana 45% Offshore ~2048m O


Vos Australia 50% Offshore ~1484m G

Satyr-3 Australia 25% Offshore ~1124m G

PROJECT MANAGEMENT + PERFORMANCE

Pluto LNG T1 (Woodside)Harweel

Construction time elapsed %

PROJECT STATUS

Amal SteamNorth Rankin 2

Kashagan phase 1Caesar Tonga Phase 1

Port Arthur refinery expansion

M j FCPBAB Thamama G & BAB …

SASCorrib

Gumusut-KakapBonga NW

S b h K b b (KBB)Mars B, W. Boreas & S. Deimos

AOSP debottleneckingBC-10 Phase 2

Gorgon LNG T1-3Majnoon FCP

WheatstonePrelude FLNGClair Phase 2

Schiehallion redevelopmentCardamom

Sabah gas Kebabangan (KBB)

Prelude FLNG


0% 50% 100%

Wheatstone

Date post:	08-May-2015
Category:	Investor Relations
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Analyst webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter and full year 2011 results

Investor Relations