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Analytical Fire Modeling: Analytical Fire Modeling: Fire in it’s Environment Fire in it’s Environment
Christopher G. MorrisonNicholas J. Kutac
Rio Rancho High SchoolTeam # 077
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Project OverviewProject Overview
Significance Problem Definition Previous Year’s Progress New Research Current Program– Forest Fire Movement– Heat and Fire Flow
Progress To Date
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SignificanceSignificance
Cerro Grande - 2000– Burned 47,650 acres of federal land– Cost 10 million dollars to contain
Yellowstone - 1988– Burned 793,000 acres (36% of park)– Cost 120 million dollars to contain
Michigan - 1871
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Problem DefinitionProblem Definition
How to show more realistic fire-spread
Find more dynamic math models
Look at fire spread in 3-dimensions
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Last Year’s ProgressLast Year’s Progress
Heat Model– Averaging equation
Environment modeling
FOR MORE INFO...
Link to last year’s final report by Chris Morrisonhttp://www.challenge.nm.org/archive/04-05/finalreports/53.pdf
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Fire MethodologyFire Methodology
Fire FactsHeat FactsFuel Facts– Flash points– Crown and Floor Fires
Environmental Factors–Wind, Humidity, Ambient Temperature,
Forest Fuels, Elevation
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New Research - ContactsNew Research - Contacts
Andrea Rodriguez, USFS Cartographer– Geospatial contact, Geospatial Service &
Technology Center– Real data for terrain and ground cover– Meta-data and raster difficult to interpret– Unable to incorporate this year
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New Research - Farsite ModelNew Research - Farsite Model
Developed by US Forest ServiceIncorporates Huygen’s principlesFire expansion – Similar
Wind and Fueleffect– Different
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New Research - Fire SpreadNew Research - Fire Spread
Huygen’s Principle– Processed terrain– Several variables
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Current Program - AlgorithmCurrent Program - Algorithm
Two Parts– Heat Flow– Fire Flow
Program Base– Patch level of forest exactness –Mini-patch level of fire exactness
See program (alt-tab)
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Program - Heat FlowProgram - Heat Flow
Everyday OccurrencesNewton’s Law of Cooling
Fourier’s Law of Conduction
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Program - Fire ExpansionProgram - Fire Expansion
Locates perimeter Expands out –Max Spread Rate – Spread Rate
Plots X new fires
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Program - Progress to Date Program - Progress to Date Inputs – Fuel type based on color– Possibly elevation– Environmental Factors
Outputs– Size, Damage, Heat
Validation– Comparisons
Successes– New inventive fire program design
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Program - AssumptionsProgram - AssumptionsAssumptions– Fire Flow is elliptical– Heat Flow and Fire Flow are separate,
related elements– Newton’s Law and Fourier’s law control
heat Flow
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Work to Be DoneWork to Be Done
Before Final Evaluation– Program • Connect Heat and Fire Flow• Add environmental Factors• Add Spark Fires• Add Crown Fires
–Web site– Final Report• Get started
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Research BibliographyResearch Bibliography Bonsor, K. (2004) How Wild Fires Work Retrieved October 3rd 2005 from
http://science.howstuffworks.com/wildfire.htm Diaz, J.C. (2002). Fourier’s law retrieved on December 6th 2005 from
http://www.mcs.utulsa.edu/~class_diaz/cs4533/flowheat/node4.html#SECTION00121000000000000000
EFunda.com (2005). Heat Transfer. EFounda.com. Retrieved December 12th 2005 from http://www.efunda.com/formulae/heat_transfer/home/overview.cfm
Finey, M. (2002) Austrailian Mathematical Society Fire growth using minimum travel time methods
Harris, T. (2005). How Wild Fire Works Retrieved December 13th 2005 from http://science.howstuffworks.com/fire.htm
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Bibliography - ContinuedBibliography - Continued Masse, B. & Nisengard, J. (2003). Cerro Grange Fire Assessment Project
Cultureal Resources Report No. 211. O’Driscoll, P. (2005). Studies at odds over logging after wildfires. USA Today
Nov. 2nd
Rona, A. (2003). Conduction. Retrieved December 6th, 2005 http://www.le.ac.uk/engineering/ar45/eg1100/eg1100w/node12.html
Taftan Data (1998). Fourier's Law of Conduction. Retrieved December 6th, 2005 http://www.taftan.com/thermodynamics/FOURIER.HTM
www.nifc.gov (last updated, 2002). Historical Wildfire Statistics. Retrieved December 6th 2005 http://www.nifc.gov/stats/historicalstats.html
Fire Picture Thanks to www.StrangeCosmos.com