Analytical Index to the Review of Economic Statistics and Monthly Supplements Source: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 1, Analytical Index (1919), pp. 3-10 Published by: The MIT Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1927917 . Accessed: 13/05/2014 21:01 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. . The MIT Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Review of Economics and Statistics. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 194.29.185.148 on Tue, 13 May 2014 21:01:21 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
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Analytical Index to the Review of Economic Statistics and Monthly SupplementsSource: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 1, Analytical Index (1919), pp. 3-10Published by: The MIT PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1927917 .
Accessed: 13/05/2014 21:01
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
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THE REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS AND MONTHLY SUPPLEMENTS
Preliminary Volume I, 1919
NOTE. - In this Analytical Index, the following abbreviations are used:
c = chart; i = insert; n = footnote; t = table; S = Supplement.
All numerals not followed by one of the first four abbreviations refer to the body of text in THE REVIEW OF
ECONOMIC STATISTICS and SUPPLEMENTS. THE REviEws are paged continuously throughout the volume. Refer- ences to the SUPPLEMENTS are preceded by the name of the month and the letter S.
Accuracy, in data and computation, 37-38. Averages, statistical. Bonnet, V., 272 n. Adjustment, 28 n, 3i n. Comparison of medians and other averages, Borght, R. van der, 276-277.
Of chain series, see Relatives, chain. 27 t. Bouniatian, M., 29i n. Of seasonal indices, see Fluctuations, sea- Extreme variations, influence of, 26-27. Bowley, A. L., 27 n, I22 n, I27 n.
sonal; Methods, statistical. Mean, arithmetic, 26. Bradstreet's Journal, 2, 3, 5, 42, 44, 44 n, I,5 n, Aftalion, A, 34, 207. Mean, geometric, 26. ii6 n, I50 n, 230 n, 245 n, 246 n, 249 n. Agricultural implements, 3I9 c, 320. Median, tested with other averages, 27 t. Business failures, see Business failures, American Bankers' Association, 40, 4I. Moving average. number of. American Economic Review, 8 n. Comparison with curve fitting, I8. Prices, see Prices, wholesale, Bradstreet's. American International Corporation, 2I5 n. Computed for various periods, io. Bravais, A., I30 n. Analysis, statistical, see Methods, statistical; Effect of period covered, on secular trend Brookmire, J. H., 207 n.
Business conditions, index of. of data, I0-I2, II C, I2 c. Economic Chart Co., I9 n. American Statistical Association, Quarterly Influence of period used, 9-ii. Buenos Aires, N. Y. exchange on, 262-265 t.
Publications of, 8 n, I33 n, I34 n, 298 n. General movements shown by, 33-34, 34- Building permits, value of, for 20 cities. Americas, The, 237 n, 242 n, 244 n. 35 c, 64-IOI C, I62-I73 c. Cycles, ;2, IO5C, 20pc, I90-I97 t. Application of statistical methods to series, 37- Obscurement of cycles by, 33. Average and sum of, 2- t, n.
48, I39-I5I. See Series; Methods, statis- Ratio of annual items, for various periods, Link relatives, month-to-month, 23 t, 42, tical; Business conditions, index of; and II C. 55 t, 75 t. name of series concerned. Test over various periods, etc., io-i8. Actual, 75 t.
Arithmetic mean, see Averages, statistical. Use in business cycles, 33. Averages, test of various, 27 t. Armistice of i9i8, economic developments Use in eliminating growth element, io-i8. Exceptional, 42.
since. Standard deviation, meaning, 36. Frequency tables, 23 t, 55 t. Agriculture, Dec. S IO, I3-i6. Test of various forms of, 27 t. Median, 23 t, 55 t. Business conditions, Sept. S 9-I2, Dec. S II, Variations, extreme, influence on, 26-27. Moving averages, 42, 74-75 c, 74 t.
22-28. Ayres, L. P., 3I2 n. Percentage deviations from line of secular Central banks of England, France, and the trend, 34-35 c, ii8 t.
U. S., Sept. S 22-25. Babson, R. W., 209, 209 n. Original data, 74-75 c, 74 t. Crops, Dec. S IO, 13-i6. Desk sheet, 42. Effect of Federal Reserve system, 39. Economic background, Sept. S 9-I2. Statistical organization, ig n. Percentage deviations from line of secular Emigration, Dec. S 24. Bacon, N. T., 226, 229. trend, 75 t. Exports of merchandise, 298-320. Balance of Trade, Source and nature, 5, 42, II5 t. Federal Reserve system, Sept. S 22-25. European nations, after Franco-Prussian Standard deviation, igo t. Financial statistics, Dec. S 25-26. War, 272, 272 n. Seasonal variation, 42, 74 i, 23 t, 55 t. Foreign exchalnge, Dec. S II, 2I-22. United States, see Foreign trade balance of Frequency tables, 23, 55. Foreign trade, Dec. S ii, i6-2I. U. S. Indices, adjusted, 74 i, 23 t, 55 t. General review, Dec. S 9-I3. Bamberger, L., 275 n. Link relatives, 23 t, 55 t, 75 t. Immigration, I)ec. S 24. Bank of Hamburg, 270. Logarithmic chart, 20 c. Index of business conditions, July S 2-Io, Banking, after Franco-Prussian War, 270-273 t, Secular trend, line of, 42, 74-75 c.
Aug. S 2-8, Sept. S 2-8, Oct. S 2-9, Nov. 275 t, 275-276, 277 t, 279-280. Equation, 39 t. S 2-8, Dec. S 2-9. Banks, central, of England, France, and the Percentage deviations,
Industrial conditions, Dec. S 22-28. U. S., Sept. S I3-25. of moving average from, 34-35 c. Living, cost of, Dec. S 27. Bank clearings, see Clearings, bank. of original items from, 75 t. Money and credit expansion, Nov. S 9-i6. Bank notes and discounts. Bulletin of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 4I, Money in circulation, Dec. S I2. After Franco-Prussian War, 280, 280 c. I4I, I4i n, I42, I42 n, I43, I43 n, I44. Prices, June S 2-II, Nov. S 9-i6, Dec. S II, After Napoleonic Wars, 29I t, 292-293, 292 c, Bullock, C. J., articles, 3, 2I3-266, Sept. S 9-
27-28. 293-294 t, 295 C. I2, Nov. S I7-I8, Dec. S 9-I3. Production, Dec. S IO, 22-24. Bank reserves. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Readjustment of industry, Sept. S IO, Dec. After Franco-Prussian War, 280-28I, 280 c. Price indices, see Prices, wholesale, U. S.
S g-io. After Napoleonic Wars, 293 t. Service, 5. Shipbuilding, Dec. S 23-24. Baranowsky, M. T., 208 n. Burton, T. E., 209. Speculation, Dec. S I2. Bates, W. W., 222 n, 226, 226 n. Business conditions, Statistical summary, Dec. S I3-28. Berlin, New York exchange on, 262-265 t. Index of, 4-I07, I09-205.
Unemployment, Dec. S 25. Berridge, W. A., articles, 298-320, Dec. S I3-28. Application of method, Wages, Dec. S IO, 26-27. Biometricians, use of correlation by, I30, I30 n. Groups of series, I82-205. World crops, Dec. S I5-i6. Biometrics, illustrating correlation, I30-I3I. Individual series, 37-I07, I39-I8I, I89-
Arnold, J. J., 240 n, 245 n. Bismarck, 0. von, 269. 205.
Assumptions, general, for business indices, 5-8. Blackwood's Magazine, 269 n. Current Analyses, June S 2-I2, July S 2- Averages, bimonthly II2-II3 C. Blodget, S., jr., 2I5 n. IO, Aug. S 2-8, Sept. S 2-8, Oct. S 2-9,
Reason for using, I27. Bonds, see Interest; Yield; Prices. Nov. S 2-8, Dec. S 2-9.
[33 1
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Method, 4-37, II7-I39. Frequency table, 50 t. Formula, I2 n. Results summarized Median, 50 t. Influence of number of items, I24-I26.
Before World War, IIO-II7. Moving averages, 64 t, 64-65 C. Intergroup pairing, i83 t. After World War, June S 2-I2, July S 2- Percentage deviations from line of secular Intragroup pairing, i83 t.
io, Aug. S 2-8, Sept. S 2-8, Oct. S 2-9, trend, 34-35 c. Limiting values, I24-I25. Nov. S 2-8, Dec. S 2-9. Original data, 64 t, 64-65 c. Normal curves of error, I26 c, I27 c.
After Franco-Prussian War, 269-28I. Percentage deviations from line of secular Probable error, I24-I27. Indices of, 28i c, 28i t, n. See Indemnity, trend, 65 t. Use in economic science, I2 n, I32-I33.
French, of i87I. Source and nature, 39, II5 t. Value dependent on lag, I24-I25. After Napoleonic Wars. Standard deviation, I90 t. Wholesale prices with all other series, i82. After World War, see Armistice; Business Seasonal variation, 40, 64 i. Compared with causation, I33-I34.
conditions, index of. Frequency table, 50 t. Conception, I30-I3I. Business cycles. Indices, adjusted, 50 t, 64 i. Definition of Bowley, I22 n.
Causes, 33 n, 34-35, 206-210. Link relatives, 40, 65 t. General considerations, I30-I39. Rhythmic nature, 33-35 Logarithmic chart, 20 c. History, I30, I30 n. Relation to other kinds of fluctuation, 8. Secular trend, line of, 39, 64-65 c. Illustration, I3I-I32. See Cycles, business; Business conditions, Constants in equation, 38 t. Line of regression, I36 c.
index of. Equation, 39 t. Of cycles. Business failures, number of. Percentage deviations of moving average Graphical method, I20-I22, I27, i84-i87 t.
Cycles, 45, I90-I97 t, io6 c, 202 C. from, 34-35 c. Mathematical method, I22-I27. Average and sum of, I23 t, n. Percentage deviations of original items Method of measurement, summary, I27.
Link relatives, 45, 86-87 t, 59 t. from, 65 t. Quantitative measure, I22-I27. Actual, 86-87 t. Clearings, bank, outside New York City. With one another, i82-i87 t. Exceptional, 45 Cycles, 4I, I04 c, 20I c, I90-I97 t. Of first differences, I22 n. Frequency table, 59 t. Average and sum, I23 n, t. Table, illustrative, I35. Median, 59 t. Federal Reserve system, effect of, 39. Correlative series, see Correlation; Business
Moving averages, 45, 84-85 c, 86-87 t. Link relatives, month-to-month, 4I, 52 t, 69 t. conditions, index of. Original data, 84-85 c, 86-87 t. Actual, 69 t. Cotton, season-alPvariation of export, 3-I6' 3I8 c.
Percentage deviations from line of secular Averages, test of various, 27 t. Coxe, T., 2i6. trend, 87 t. Exceptional, 4I. Credit, international.
Range, ii8 t. Frequency table, 52 t. During World War, 237-244. See Capital, Source and nature, 5, 44, II6 t. Median, 52 t. export of; Foreign Trade balance of U. S.; Standard deviation, 38 t, I90 t. Moving averages, 40, 69-69 c, 68 t. Investments, foreign.
Seasonal variation, 44-45, 85 i, 59 t. Percentage deviations from line of secular Crises, major and minor, 33-34. See Cydes; Frequency table, 59 t. trend, 34-35 c. Business conditions, index of. Indices, adjusted, 85 i, 59 t. Original data, 68-69 c, 68 t. Crop yield per acre. Link relatives, 86-87 t, 59 t. Percentage deviations from line of secular Constants for secular trend, 38 t.
Secular trend, line of, 44-45, 84-85 c. trend, 69 t. Standard deviation, 38 t. Equation, 39 t. Percentage deviations, range, ii8 t. Crude materials exported, 298-320.
Constants for, 38 t. Source and nature, 40-4I, II5 t. Currency. Percentage deviations of original items Standard deviation, i9o t. After Napoleonic Wars, 29I-297, 29L-297 c, t.
from, 87 t. Seasonal variation, 4I, 68 i. See Inflation; Money and credit expansion. Business statistics, see Business conditions, index Frequency table, 52 t. Curve fitting, I2-i8, I35-I37.
of; Cycles, business; Methods, statistical. Indices, adjusted, 52 t, 68 c. Contrasted with moving average, io-i8 Link relatives, 4I, 52 t, 69 t. For line of secular trend, I8.
Cairnes, J. E., 224. Logarithmic chart, 2I. To correlation table. See Correlation; Re- Call loans, rate of interest on, see Interest, Secular trend, line of, 4I, 68-69 c. gression, line of.
rate of, on call loans at. Constants in equation, 38 t. Use in eliminating growth-element, io-i8. Capital, exportation of, 245-248, 254, Nov. Equation, 39 t. Use of compound interest curve, I4-I5 c.
S I7-i8. Percentage deviations of moving average Use of parabola, I4-I5 c. See Loans, foreign; Foreign trade balance from, 34-35 c. See Trend, secular; Correlation; Parabola;
of U. S. Percentage deviations of original items Compound interest curve. Capital, importation of, 2I7-2I9, 220-224, from, 65 t. Cycles, business, 2I.
229-230. Clearing House banks, N. Y. City, deposits, Causes, views of, 206-2Io. See Investments, foreign, in U. S.; Foreign loans and reserves of, see Deposits; Loans; Definition, II5.
trade balance of U. S. Reserves. Nature, 33. Carroll, J. F., 6. Coal, bituminous, seasonal variation of export, Prices, role of, I29, 206-2Io.
Causation, overlapping, in economics, I33-I34. 3i6-3I7, 3i8. Rhythm versus periodicity, 33-35. See Correlation. Coal, production. See Business conditions, index of.
Central Banks of England, France, and the During armistice, Dec. S 23. Cycles of series. U. S., Sept. S I3-25. Secular trend, constants for, 38 t. Average of each series, I23 n, t.
Central Powers, 269. Standard deviation, 38. Charts for each series, I04-Io7 c, i98-205 c, Characteristic line, see Regression, line of; Coke, production, Dec. 5 23. Aug. 5 I0-I I C.
Correlation. Commercial paper, rate of interest on, see Discussion for each series, 39-48, I39-I5I. Charts and tables, standard. Interest, rate of. Groups, 110 C, 112-113 c.
Cycles, 104-107 c, t, I89-205 c, t, Aug. 5 10- Committee on Economic Research, purposes, Maxima and minima, 113-114. II. organization, etc., 3. Numerical values, I90-I97 t.
Original data, 64-103 c, t, 162-181 c, t. Comparison of series, see Correlation; Business Periods, 111-114. Seasonal variation, 50-63 c, t, 155-161 c, t. conditions, index of. Similarity, 114.
On clearings, 39, 40. Consolidated Steel Corporation, 215 n. Standard deviation as unit, II19, 1I8-119 t. Chronicle, CommercialZ and Financial, 5, 6, 39, Constants in equations of secular trend, 38 t. Sum for various series, 123 n.
40, 41 n, 43, 43 n, 45, 46, 46 n, 47, 149 n, |Cooperation among statistical agencies, 3. See Fluctuations, cyclical; Business condi- 150, 151, 151 n, 223 n, 225, 225 n, 226 n, Copeland, M. T., 19, 19 n. tions, index of. 245 n. C>orrection of statistical data, 8, 35, 114-115. Czuber, E., I30 n.
Clearings, bank, of N. Y. City. See Business conditions, index of; Methods, Cycles, 40, 104 c, 200 c. statistical. Data, source and nature of,1 39-48, 139-151,
Average and sum, 123 n, t. Correlation. 38 t, n. Federal Reserve system, effect on, 39. Coefficient of. Davis, J. S., article, Sept. 5 13-25. Link relatives, month-to-month, 65 t. Application to time series, 132-133. Day, E. E., 134 n.
Actual, 40, 65 t. Assumptions of K. Pearson, 132. Deposits, average, of N. Y. Clearing House Exceptional, 40). Explanation, 122-12?4, banks.
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Cycles, I5I, 204 C, 190-197 t. Indices, adjusted, 56 t, 76 i. Value-indices, Link relatives, month-to-month, I5I, i6i t, Link relatives, 56 t, 77 t. By articles, 303 t.
i8i t. Secular trend, line of, 43, 76-77 c. By continents, 304 C, 3I4 t. Actual, i8i. Equation, 39 t. By groups, 300 c, 3I2 t, 3I3 c. Exceptional, 151. Percentage deviations of moving averages, War-time changes, 299 C, 300 C, 30I t, 30I-
Frequency table, i6i t. 34-35 c. 302, 303, 303 c, 304 c, 306 t, 3II C, 3I2 t,
Median, i6i t. Percentage deviations of original items 3I3 c, 3I4 t. Original data, I74-I75 c, I78-I79 c, i8i t. 77 t. See Foreign trade balance of U. S.
Percentage deviations from line of secular Earnings, net, of railroads, Exports of merchandise from the U. S., total trend, i8i t. Secular trend, line of, 38 t. values of,
Source and nature, i i6 t, I 50-I 5I. Standard deviationr, 38. Cycles, 266. Standard deviation, I9I t. Economic background, Sept. S 9-I2. Link relatives, month-to-month, 2 58-259.
Seasonal variation, I5I, I74 i, I78 i. Economic research, endowment of, 3. Original data, 258-259 C, 258- 259 t. Frequency table, i6i. Economic Journal, 286, 286 n. Source and nature, 266. Indices, adjusted, I74 i, I78 i, i6i t. Economic statistics, see Statistics; Methods, Seasonal variation, 266. Link relatives, I5I, i6i t, i8i t. statistical; Series; Business conditions, Indices, 240 c.
Secular trend, line of, I5I, I74-I75 c, I78- index of; Review of Economic Statistics. Secular trend, 258-259 c, 266. I79 c. Economic World, 245 n, 246 n, 250 n.
Equation, isi. Econzomist, London, 269 n, 272 n, 272, 273, 277. Failures, see Business failures. Percentage deviations of original items Emigration. Fairman, W., 2go9n.
from, i8i t. From Europe after Franco-Prussian War, Federal Reserve Bulletin, 5, 5 n, i8, i8 n, I9 n, Deviations, percentage, 279 t. I44, 144 n, 247 n.
Foreign exchange, from par, 264-265 t. From U. S. after World War, 24-25, 24 t. Federal Reserve system, see U. S. Federal Moving averages from lilne of secular trend, England, Bank of, Sept. S I3-25. See Great Reserve system. . 33-35, 34-35 c. Britain. Fenn, C., 290 n.
Original items from line of secular trend, Error. Filburn, W. J., 14I. 64-Io3 t, I62-I8I t. Normal curves, I26-I27 c. Financial Reviezw, 43, 45, 46, 47, I5I.
Deviation, standard, for each series, 36 t, 38 t, Normal law, tested, I37 c, I37-I39, 139 c, Financial experience, British, I79o-i83o. igo-igi t. See Averages, statistical. I38 t. Bank reserves, 293 t.
Dickson, J. D. H., I30 n. Error, probable. Bibliography, 323.
Discount rates. Formula, I26 n. Currency, 29I t, 292-297, 295 c, 293-294 t.
After Franco-Prussian War, 27I c, 27I-272, Significance, I26-I27. Foreign exchange, 287 t, 287-289, 288 c. 279-280, 280 c. Illustrative computation, I26 n. Gold production, 286 n.
See interest, rate of. Relation to coefficient of correlation, I27. Interest and discount rates, 8-io t, 289-292, Dispersion, I3I-I32. Relation to size of sample, I25-I27. 289 c.
Of cycles, in standard deviations, II9 t. Errors and discrepancies in current data, 6 n. Note circulation, 293-294 t, 295 c. Illustrations, I3I-I32. Errors in January Review, 2I2. Prices of commodities, 282-286, 282-285 t,
Measurement, 36, II9 n. European Magazine, 289. 284-285 c, 32I-322 t.
Range, 36 t, ii8 t. Expansion, money and credit, June S 5-9, of gold and silver, 286-287, 287 t. See Correlation, coefficient of; Averages, Sept. S I5-25, Nov. S 9-16. See Armis- Public debt, 296 t, 297, 297 c.
statistical; Link relatives. tice; Business Conditions, index of; Cur- Purpose of analysis, 282. Dividend payments by industrial corporations, rency; Inflation. Wages, 285 c, 286, 286 t.
Cycles, I45, 205 c, I90-I97 t. Experiment, method of, in economic statistics, 7. Financing of exports, need for, Nov. S I7-i8. Link relatives, I45, i65 t. Exports, financing of, Nov. S I7-i8. Fisher, A., I24 n.
Actual, i65 t. Exports of domestic merchandise from the Fisher, I., 209-2Io. Exceptional, I45. U. S., analysis of. Fluctuations. Frequency table, i56 t. Armistice changes, 299 c, 300 c, 30I t, 302 t, Cyclical. Median, 156 t. 302-303, 303 c, 304 c, 305, 306 t, 307- Comparison of series, 36.
Original data, I64-I65 c, I64 t. Nov. S I7-i8, Dec. S I6-20. Meaning, 32. Percentage deviations from line of secular Classification, 298. Measurement, 33-36.
trend, i65 t. Distribution of articles by groups, 306 t. Normal distribution, I37-138. Source and nature, ii6 t, I44. Need for financing, Nov. S I7-i8. Similarity, II4. Standard deviation, i9i t. Pre-war changes, 299 c, 299-30I, 303, 303 c. Simultaneity, II4.
Seasonal variation, I45, i64 i. Price-indices by groups, 3Io-31I, 3I5 t, Standard deviation for comparisons, 36.
Frequency tables, I56 t. 3I4-3I5, 3I5 C. See Business conditions, index of. Indices, adjusted, I56 t, i64 i. Purpose of analysis, 298-299. Degrees, 36. Link relatives, I56 t, i65 t. Quantity, by articles, 307-308 t. Irregular or residual.
Secular trend, line of, I45, I64-I65 C. Quantity-indices, Adherence to normal distribution, I37- Equation, I45. By articles, 309-3Io t, 314. I39.
Percentage deviations of original items By continents, 314 t. Definition, 33. from, i65 t. By groups, 305-308, 308-3I2, 314-315, Distinction from cyclical, 35.
Dow, Jones and Co., 245. 311 C, 312 t, 313 c. Isolated, I37-I38. , ~~~~~~~~~~Check with Shipping Board data, 311-312. Meaning, 33.
Earnings, gross, of Io leading railroads. Correction for A. F. F. shipments, 312 n. Kinds, 8, 114-115. Cycles, 43, io6 c, 203 c, I90-I97 t. Method of adjusting, 308-3I2. Seasonal.
Average and sum, 123 t, n. Method of computing, 305-3I2. Adjustment of chain indices, 31 n. Link relatives, month-to-month, 43, 77 t. Seasonal variation. Chain relatives explained, 27, 27 n.
Actual, 77 t. Causes, 3X6. Current methods of estimating, 19 n. Exceptional, 43. Cautions, 320. Defects of arithmetic average, 19. Frequency table, 56 t. Defects of qualitative analysis, 315-316. Elimination. Median, 56 t. Indices, adjusted, by groups, 3I6-320, Method, ii8, 137-138.
Moving averages, 43 76-77 c, 76 t. 318-319 c. Necessity, 19. Percentage deviations from line of secular Median link relatives, 317 t. Fictitious vs. real
trend, 34-35 c. Method explained, 316. Indices, adjusted, 23 t, 25 t, 29 c, 30 c, 50- Original data, 76-77 c, 76 t. Need for analyzing, 315. 63 t, 64-96 i, i56-i6i t, I64-I79 i, 318-
Percentage deviations from line of secular Secular trend, constants for, 38 t. 319 c. trend, 76-77 t, ii8 t. Standard deviation, 38 t. Link relatives, 65-103 t, 163-181 t, 259 t.
Source and nature, 42, 115 t. Values, Averages, suitability of, 26, 27. Standard deviation, 190 t. | By articles, 301 t, 302 t, 307-308 t. Chain series of geometric means, 29-30 c.
Seasonal variation, 43, 56 t, 76 i. By continents, 303, 303 c, 304 c, 305. Chain series of medians, 28-30 c. Frequency table, 56. By groups, 298, 299 c, 3 00 c, 299-303. Frequency tables explained, 22.
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Frequency tables for series, 23-25 t, 50- Genetics, application of correlation to, I3I. | Link relatives, I72-I73 t. 63 t, I55-i6i t. Gentleman's Magazine, 289. Secular trend, line of, I49, I72-I73 c.
Logarithmic chart applied, 20-2I. Geometric mean, see Averages, statistical. Equation, I49. Long period necessary, I9. Georges-Cohen, 209 n. Percentage deviation of original items, Measurement, method of, i8-3I, 3I t, 316. Germany, effects of French indemnity on, 269- I72 t. Month, influence of length, i8, i8 n. 281. See Indemnity, French, of i87I. Indemnity, French, of i87I, and effects. Objections to assumption without proof, i8. Gide, Charles, 207, 207 n. Bank notes, 279-280, 280 c. Objects of studying, i8. Gold and specie, international movements of, Bank reserves, 279-280, 280 c. Three-year average as base, I9 n. 2i8, 2i8-225 t, 220, 222, 225, 228 t, 229 t, Business conditions, general, 28i, 28i c. Time-unit, i8, i8 n, i9 n. 229, 237-239, 237-239 t, Dec. S 26. See Consumption of cotton, 277, 277 t, 278. Variation between years, I9. Foreign trade balance of U. S. Crisis and depression, 278-28i. See Variation, seasonal; Bu-siness condi- Gold production. Emigration, 279, 279 t.
tions, index of. U. S., 22I, 222. Employment, 278-279, 278 t, 279 t. Smoothing, by standard deviation, 36. World, June S 8, Dec. S 25. Foreign exchange, 270-273.
Foods. Grace, W. R., and Co., 2I5 n. Foreign investments, 273. Exportation, 236, 298-320. Graham, F. D., 225 n. Foreign subscriptions to loans, 269. Prices of, June S3 t. Great Britain, financial effects of Napoleonic Foreign trade 272 n, 272-274, 272 c, 273-
Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United Wars on, 282-297. See Financial experi- 274 t. States, 2I5. ence, British, I790-I830. Forms of payment, 269.
Foreign exchange rates. Gross earnings of railroads, see Earnings, gross. German subscriptions to loans, 269. After Franco-Prussian War, 270-272, 270 t, n, Growth element in time series, 8. German war debt, 274-275, 274 t.
27I c. Groups of series, see Series; Business condi- German crisis, 278-28i. During and after Napoleonic Wars, 286-289, tions, index of, Correlation. German depression, 279-28i.
287 t, 288 c. Guaranty Trust Co. of N. Y., 25I. German Great Banks, 275-276, 275 t. During and after World War, 239-245, 256- German prosperity, 275-278.
257 c, 260-265 c, 265-266, Dec. S 2I-22. Harvard Graduates' Magazine, 3. Joint stock companies, 275, 275 t. New York on London. Heidelbach, A. S., 226 n. Loans raised, 269-270.
Cycles not computed, 266. Hinrichs, A., 282. Merchant marine, 279, 279 t. Original items, 260-263 t. Hobson, C. K., 225 n, 226, 227 n, 23i n. Net gain of Germany, 28i.
Source and nature, 265. Homogeneity of series, 9. Period of payment, 269-270, 272. Percentage deviations from par, 243 c, Hooker, R. H., I33. Prices.
264-265. Hull, G. H., 208-209. General, 276, 276 c, 276 t, 278, 279. Seasonal variation, indices of, 240 c, 265- Hunt's Merchant's Magazine, 223 n. Securities, 276, 276 t, 277 t, 278, 279.
266. Production of pig-iron and coal, 277t, 277- Trend, secular, 265. Immigrants' remittances, 227, 228-232, 253. 278, 279.
New York on various centers, 243 c, 260- Immigration into U. S., Prosperity in Germany, 275--278. 265 t. Secular trend, constants for, 38 t. Purpose of analysis, 269.
World centers on other world centers, Dec. Standard deviation, 38 t. Railroads, 276, 277 t, 279 t. S 2I-22, Dec. S 22 c. Imports of the United States, values. Rates of discount, 279-280, 280 c.
Foreign investments, see Investments, foreign, Cycles, 42, I05 c, I9o-I97 t, 20I c. Savings, 278 t. in U. S. Average and sum, total, I23 n. Securities issued, 275, 275 t.
Foreign trade balance of the U. S., 2I3-266. Link relatives, month-to-month, 42, 73 t. Speculation, 275 t, 275-276. Armistice changes, 252-254. Actual, 73 t. Summary of effects, 267. Capital, 245-248. Exceptional, 42. Terms, 269. Credit, 237-245. Frequency table, 54 t. Transfer, 270. Foreign exchange, 237-245. Median, 54 t. Uses by Germany, 274. Gold, 220-224, 237-245. Moving average, 42, 72-73 c, 72 t. Wages, how influenced, 278, 278 t. History, I789-I9I4, 2I5-233. Percentage deviations from line of secular Index numbers, see Prices; Business condi- History during World War, 234-252. trend, 34-35 c. tions, index of; Methods, statistical. Immigrants' remittances, 228-232. Original data, 72-73 c, 72 t. Index of business conditions. Inflow of foreign capital, 2I7-2I9, 220-224. Percentage deviations from line of secular Construction of groups of series, I27-I30. Interest payments on foreign indebtedness, trend, 73 t, i i8 t. Correlation.
2I9-220, 224-228. Source and nature, 42, II5 t. General considerations, I30-I38. Merchandise, 2I9 C, 233 C, 235-237 c. Standard deviation, 38 t, I90 t. Method used, I20-I27. Merchant marine profits, 2I5-2I7. Seasonal variation, 42, 54 t, 72 i. Of series with one another, I82, I84-I87. Post-war developments, 252-254. Frequency table, 54 t. Of series by groups, I83. Pre-war changes, 2I5-233. Indices, adjusted, 54 t, 72 i. Data used, II5-II7. R-esume, 232. Link relatives, actual and median, 54 t, Definition of terms, II4-II5. Shipping, 248-250. 73 t. Method used, 37, III-II4, II7-I38, 139, Tourists' expenditures, 228-232. Secular trend, 42, 72-73 c. i82-i83. War-time changes, 234-252. Constants for equation of, 38 t. Application to individual series, 37-48, See Exports of domestic merchandise. Equation, 39 t. I39-I5I.
Foreign trade of various countries, Dec. 5 20-2I. Percentage deviations of moving average Application to groups of series, 182. Four-to-six months commercial paper, interest from, 34-35 C. Results, statement of, III-II7.
rate on, see Interest, rate of. Percentage deviations of original items Series by groups, II10 C, II2-II3 C. France, see Indemnity, French, of 1871. from, 65 t. Transitions, peace and war, effects, II6-II7. Franco-Prussian War, economic effects of, see Imports of U. S., total values, 216-217 c. See Methods, statistical; Business condi-
Indemnity, French, of 1871. Incorporations involving $I,ooo,ooo or more, in tions, index of; Armistice. Frankfort, Treaty of, 269. Eastern states. Indices of business conditions, 4-I07, I09-2I2,
Frederick, L., 235 n. Cycles, 149, I90-I97 t, 198 C. July 5 2-I0, Aug. 5 2-8, Sept. 5 2-8, Oct. Frequency tables of seasonal variation, 50-63 t, Link relatives, 149, I72-I73 t. 5 2-9, Nov. 5 2-8, Dec. 5 2-9. See Index
I5 -I 6 I t . Actual, 17 2-I173 t . of business conditions; Methods, statistical. Frickey, E., memorandum, 210-2II. Exceptional, 149. Indices of crop yield per acre. Function, mathematical. Moving averages, 149, I72-I73 C, 172 t. Secular trend, constants for, 38 t.
Definition, 12 n. Original data, I72-I73 C, 172-173 t. Standard deviation, 38 t. Illustration, 131. Percentage deviations from line of secular Industrial corporations, dividend payments, Locus, meaning of, 12 n. trend, 172 t. see Divridend payments. Parameter, use of, 12 n. Source and nature, I48-I49. Industrial stocks, prices of, see Price, average,
Standard deviation, 191 t. of industrial stocks. Gallatin, A. A. A., 216 n, 2I8 n. Seasonal variation, 41, 68 i, 172 i. Inflation. Galton, Sir F., 130, 132. Discussion, 41. After Civil War, 222. See Money and Gardin, J. E., 242 n. Indices, adjusted, I72 i. credit expansion; Currency; Armnistice.
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Inheritance of physical characteristics, I3I. Exceptional, 46. Lloyd's Shipping Gazette, 226 n. Insurance, marine, 250. Frequency table, 6o t. Loans, average, of N. Y. City Clearing. House Interest charges and payments of U. S., 2I5, Median, 62 t. banks.
2I9-220, 223 t, 223-228, 230, 253. Moving averages, 46, 88-89 c, 90-9I t. Cycles, I50, I90-I97 t, 204 C.
Interest, compound, I3I-I32, 13I C. Original data, 88-89 C, 90-9I t. Comparison with interest cycles, Aug. S IO.
Interest, rate of, on call loans at N. Y. Stock Computation of avelage, 45. Link relatives, month-to-month, I50, I76- Exchange. Percentage deviations from line of secular I77 t.
Cycles not computed, 48. trend, 9I t. Actual, I76-I77 t. Link relatives, month-to-month, 47, I02- Source and nature, 45-46. Exceptional, I50.
I03 t. Standard deviation, I90 t. Frequency table, I59 t. Actual, I02-I03 t. Seasonal variation, 46, 32 C, 6o t, 6o n. Median, I59 t. Exceptional, 47. Frequency table, 6o t. Original data, I74-I75 C, I76-I77 t. Frequency table, 63. Indices adjusted, 32 C, 6o t, 6o n. Percentage deviations from line of secular Median, 63 t. Link relatives, actual and median, 6o, 90- trend, table, i8o t.
Moving averages, 48, IOO-IOI c, I02-I03 t. 9I. Source and nature, ii6 t, I49. Original data, IOO-IOI c, I02-I03 t. Secular trend, 46, 88-89 c. Standard deviation, I9I t.
Source and nature, 47, ii6 t. Equation, 39 t. Seasonal variation, I49-I50, 150 t, 159 t, Standard deviation, I9I t. Percentage deviations of original items I74 i.
Seasonal variation, 47-48, 32 c, 63 t. from, 91 t. Frequency table, I59 t. Frequency table, 63. Interest, rates of, Indices, adjusted, I50 t, I59 t, I74 C.
Indices, adjusted, 32 c, 63 t. After Napoleonic Wars, 289-29I, 289 C, 289-' Link relatives, I59, 176-I77.
Link relatives, actual and median, I02- 29I t. Norton's indices, I50 t. I03 t, 63 t. Comparison of seasonal variation, 32 C. Secular trend, line of, I49, I74-I75 C.
Secular trend, line of, 47. Interest, rates of, from Commercial and Finan-. Equation, I49. Interest, rate of, on four-to-six months com- cial Chronicle. Percentage deviations of original items,
mercial paper in N. Y. International trade. i8o t. Cycles, 46, I23, I90-I97 t. After Franco-Prussian War, 272 C, 272 t, n, Loans, foreign, in U. S., 246-247, 246-248 t,
Average, I23 n, t. 273-274 t. 254. See also Credit; Foreign Trade Link relatives, 46, 94-95 t. See Foreign trade balance of U. S.; Exports Balance of U. S.
Actual, 94-95 t. of domestic merchandise. Logarithmic chart of variations within year, Averages, test of various, 27 t. Interpretation of current statistics, 3, 7. 20 C, 2I C.
Exceptional, 46. Investments, foreign, in U. S., 2I8, 2I9, 222, London Monthly Magazine, 289. Frequency table, 6i t. 223 t, 224, 226, 229 t, 229-230, 245-246. London, N. Y. exchange rates on, 256-257 C, Median, 6i t. Iron Age, 5, 7, 13 n, 40. 260-26I t, 264-265 t.
Moving averages, 46, 92-93 C, 94-95 t. Iron and steel, manufacturers of, exported, Long-time trend, see Trend, secular. Original data, 92-93 C, 94-95 t. 3I9 C, 320. Loree, L. F., 245, 25I.
Percentage deviations from line of secular Irregular fluctuations in statistical series, see trend, 95 t. Fluctuations, irregular; Business condi- Madrid, N. Y. exchange rates on, 262-265 t.
Source and nature, iI6. tions, index of; Methods, statistical. Manufactures, exportation of, 236, 298-320.
Standard deviation, I90 t. Magee, J. D., I34 n.
Relatives to January as base, 24 t, 28 C, 29 C. Jevons, H. S., 207. Marshall, A., 2IO.
Seasonal variation, 46, 92 i, 6i t. Jevons, W, S., 207, 282. Mean, see Averages, statistical. Frequency tables, 24 t, 6i t. Journal of Commerce, see N. V. Journal of Meat products, 3I7, 3I8 c. Indices, adjusted, 29 C, 32 c, 6i t, 92 C. Commerce and Commercial Bulletin. Median, see Averages, statistical. Indices, unadjusted, 28-29 C. Journal of Political Economy, I4 n, 45, 46, 47, Merac, M. L., 282. Link relatives, 94-95 t, 6i t. I46 n, I47 n, 2I7 n, 2I8 n, 240 n. Merchandise. Relatives to January as base, 24 t. Journal of Royal Statistical Society, 48, I25 n, Exports from U. S., 2I3-254, 298-320. See
Secular trend, line of, 46, 92-93 C. I30 n, I33 n, 282, 282 n, 289 n. Exports of domestic merchandise of U. S.; Equation, 39 t. Juglar, C., 207. Foreign trade balance of U. S. Percentage deviations of original items, Imports, 2I3-254. See Foreign trade bal-
95 t. Kemmerer, E. W., I9 n. ance of U. S. Interest, rate of, on sixty-to-ninety day com- Kettell, 220 n, 223 n. Merchant marine,
mercial paper in N. Y. King, W. I., I34 n. French and German, after Franco-Prussian Cycles, I07 C, I90-I97 t, 205 C. Keynes, J. M., I30 n. War, 279, 279 t.
Average and sum, I23 t, n. United States. Comparison with cycles of interest rates, Lag between statistical series. Expansion, 248-250, 252.
etc., I20-I2I, I20 C, I1I C. Aug. S IO- Amount of, IIO C, II2-II3 C, I29, I84-I87 t. Freight charges, 226, 227, 249-250, 249 t.
II. Consistency of, I28, I84-I87 t. Passing, 22I, 222.
Correlation with pig-iron production, I35 t. Correlation for various degrees of, I 27. Profits, 2 15-2I7, 220, 222, 223.
Discussion, 4 7. Measurement, I20-I22, I24 C, I84-I87 t. Revival, 234. Link relatives, month-to-month, 47, 98-99 t. Lamont, T. W., 230 n. Sales, 2I8, 220 t, 222.
Frequency table, 62 t. Laughlin, J. L., 242 n, 253 n, 287 n. See Foreign trade balance of U. S. Moving averages, 47, 96-97 C, 98-99 t. Laurent, E., 209 n. Methods, statistical, used by Review of Eco- Original data, 96-97 C, 98-99 t. Law, statistical. l nomic Statistics, 5-I07, 109-212.
Percentage deviations from line of secular Conception, I3I. Accuracy in data and computation, 37-38. trend, 99 t, I I8 t. Illustration, I3 I-I3 2 Application to individual series, 37, 39-48,
Source and nature, 46-47. .See Correlation; Deviation, standard. I39-I8I.
Standard deviation, I9I t. Layton, W. T., 277 n. aResults for each series, 39-48, 139-154, 50-
Seasonal variation, 47, 62 t, 96 i. Least squares, method of. I07 C, t, I55-I8I C, t. Frequency table, 62 t. Application, to secular trend, I2 n. Results of comparisons of series, I04-I07 C, t,
Indices, adjusted, 62 t, 96 i. Formula for fitting straight line, I2 n, I3. I83-I87, I90-205 C, t. Link relatives, 62 t, 98-99 t. Relation to method of moments, I2-I3 n. Summary, 37, II7-I39.
Secular trend, line of, 47, 96-97 C. Relation to coefficient of correlation, I 2-I3 n. Mileage, railway, new, sce Railway mileage. Equation, 39 t. Leather and tanned skins, 3I7, 3I9 C. Mineral oils, see Oils, mineral. Percentage deviations of original items, Leather, sole, 317, 3I9 C, 320. Mlitchell, W. C., I4, 34, 4I, 45, 46, 46 n, 47 n,
99 t. Lescure, J., 208, 208 n. 141, I46, 225 n. Interest, rate of, on io American railroad bonds. Line, chlaracteristic, see Regression, line of; Moments, method of.
Cycles, 46, 107 C, I90-I97 t, I99. Correlation. Explanation, I2-I3. Average and sum, I23 t, n. Link relatives, and frequency tablcs, 50-I03 t, Formula, I3 n. Comparison with other cycles, Aug. 5 II. I 55-I8I t. See Fluctuations, seasonal; Illustrative computation, I3 n. Link relatives, 46, 90-9I t. Business conditions, index of. Money, amount in United States, -2I5-2I6, 219.
Money and credit expansion, Nov. S 9-12. I 5, Sept. S 2-8, Oct. S 2-9, Nov. S 2-8, Securities, see Prices, average, of industrial Monroe, A. E., article, 269-28I. Nov. S 9-i6, Dec. S 2-9. stocks; Prices, average, of 20 railroad Month, statistical, 6. Petrograd, New York exchange on, 260-26I t. stocks, etc. Monthly Summary of Foreign Commerce, 5, 42, 264-265 t. Prices, average, of industrial stocks.
44, 298 n. Pieper, L., 278. Cycles, I47, I90-I97 t, I99 c. Moore, H. L., I2 n, 34, 208, 208 n, 2Io. Pig iron. Comparison with cycles of interest-rates, Morgan, J. P., and Co., 2I5 n, 229. Price of, see Prices. Aug. S II. Moving averages. Production, Dec. S 23. See Pig iron, ton- Link relatives, I47, i66-i68 t.
Deviations from line of secular trend for nage produced. Actual, i66-i68 t. various series, 34-35 c. See Averages, sta- Production per capita, I4-I5 c. Exceptional, I47. tistical. Tonnage produced in U. S. Frequency table, I57 t.
Cycles, 40, I04 c, I90-I97 t, 20I c, June S Median, I57 t. Napoleonic Wars, effects on British finance, I2 C. Moving averages, I47, i68 t.
282-297. See Financial Experience, Brit- Average and sum, I23 t, n. Original data, i66-067 t, i66-i67 c. ish, I790-I830. Comparison with cycles of interest rates, Changes in stocks used, I46 t.
National Monetary Commission, see U. S. I20-I2I, I20-I2I c, I2I t. Percentage deviations from line of secular National Monetary Commission. Correlation table, I35 t. trend, i68 t.
National City Bank of N. Y., 2I5 n. Link relatives, month-to-month, 3I t, 40, Source and nature, II6 t, I45-147. Newmarch, W., 289 n. 67 t. Standard deviation, I9I t. New corporations launched, 5. Actual, 67 t. Stocks used, I46 t. New Monthly Magazine, 289. Averages, test of various, 27 t. Seasonal variation, I47. New security issues, 5. Exceptional, 40. Frequency tables, I57 t. New York City Clearings, see Clearings, bank, Frequency table, 5I t. Indices not computed, I47.
of New York City. Median, 5I t. Link relatives, I57, i66-i68. New York City Clearing Hotuse banks, see Moving averages, 40, 66-67 c, 66 t. Secular trend, line of, I47, i66-i68 c.
Deposits, average; Loans, average; Re- Percentage deviations from line of sec- Equation, I47. serves, average. ular trend, 34-35 c. Percentage deviations of original items
New York Journal of Commerce and Commercial Original data, 66 t, 66-67 c. from, i68 t. Bulletin, 4, 5, 6, I44, I45 n, I48, I49, I49 n, Percentage deviations from line of sec- Prices, average, of 20 railroad stocks. 226 n, 227, 227 n, 246 n. ular trend, 67 t, ii8 t. Cycles, I48, I90-I97 t, I99 c.
New York Stock Exchange. Source and nature, 4o, II 5 t. Link relatives, I47, I69 t, I7I t. Rate of interest on call loans, see Interest, Standard deviation, 38 t, I90 t. Actual, I69 t, I7I t.
rate of. Seasonal variation, 30 c, 40, 66 i. Exceptional, I47. Shares sold, see Shares sold on N. Y. Stock Frequency table, 5I t. Frequency table, i58 t.
Exchange. Indices, adjusted, 30 c, 3I t, 5I t, 66 i. Median, I58 t. Normal law of distribution, see Dispersion; Indices, unadjusted, 30 c, 3I t. Moving averages, 148, I69 t, I7I t.
Fluctuations. Link relatives, 5I t, 67 t. Original data, I70-I7I C.
North American Review, 230 n. Secular trend, line of, 4o, 66-67 c. Changes in stocks used, I48. Norton, J. P., I49, I50, I5I. Constants for equation, 38 t. Percentage deviations from line of secular Noyes, A. D., 229 n. Equation, 39 t. trend, I69 t.
Methods of measurement applied, I3-I4. Source and nature, ii6 t, I47. O'Farrell, H. H., 273 n. Percentage deviations of moving aver- Standard deviation, I9I t.
Oils, mineral, 3I9 c, 320. ages from, 34-35 c. Seasonal variations, I47, I47 t. Oil, production of, Dec. S 23. Percentage deviations of original items Frequency tables, I58 t. Organ, meaning in statistics, I3I. from, 67 t. Indices, I47 t.
Original data, 64-IOI c, 64-Io3 t, i62-I79 c, Sample computation by method of mo- Link relatives, I58 t, i69 t, I71 t. i62-i8i t, 256-259 c, 258-259 t. ments, I3 n. Secular trend, line of, I47, I70-I7I c.
Method of correction summarized, 37, II7- Pitkin, T., 2I5 n, 216. Equation, 147. I39. See Methods, statistical; Business Poincare, J. H., I3o n. Percentage deviations of original items conditions, index of. Post-war movements. from, i69 t.
Outside dearings, see Clearings, bank, outside Balance of trade of U. S., 252-254. Prices, average, of shares, New York Stock New York City. Economic conditions, Sept S 9-I2, Dec. S 9- Exchange.
Overlapping causes, in economics, I32-I33. 28. Secular trend, constants for, 38 t. See Causation; Correlation. Exports of merchandise from U. S., 298-320. Standard deviation, 38 t.
Indices of business conditions, July S 2-I0, Prices, wholesale, Bradstreet's. Paish, Sir G., 225 n, 226, 230, 230 n, 232. Aug. S 2-8, Sept. S 2-8, Oct. S 2-9, Nov. S Cycles, 4I-42, I05 c, I90-I97 t, 203 c, June Palgrave, R. H. I., 290 n. 2-8, Dec. S 2-9. S I2 c. Panic, Price-level. June S 2-II, Nov. S 9-i6. Average and sum, I23 t, n.
Of i837, 220. See also Armistice. Link relatives, month-to-month, 4I, 7I t. Of I873, 22I, 224. Prices. Actual, 7I t. Of i893, 226, 228. Commodity, general, see Prices, wholesale. Exceptional, 41.
Parabola, use in curve-fitting, I4-I5 c, I35- After Franco-Prussian War, 276, 276 c, Frequency tables, 25 t, 53 t. 137, 136, 136 c. 276 t, 278, 279. Median, 25 t, 53 t.
Paris, New York exchange on, 260-26I t, 264- After Napoleonic Wars, 282-286, 284- Moving averages, 41-42, 70-7I c, 70 t. 265 t. 285 c, 282-283 t, 285 t. Percentage deviations from line of secular
Peace, effects of transition on business index, After World War, June 5 2-12, Nov. 5 9- trend, 34-35 c. 116-117. See Business conditions, index i6, Dec. 5 II, Dec, 5 27-28. Original data, 70 t, 70-7I c. Of, Armistice. Commodity, export, 302-320, 315 c. Annual averages, 315 c.
Pearl, R., 130 n. Gold and silver, 286-287, 287 t. Articles used in indices, 140-41. Pearson, H. G., 220 n. In post-bellum period, June 5 2-II, Nov. Percentage deviations from line of secular Pearson, KZ., 125 n, 130, 130 n, 131, 132, 132 n, 5 9-I6, Dec. 5 II, Dec. 5. 27-28. trend, 71 t, II8 t.
133, 133 n, 134n. Influence in the business cydle, 129-I30, Reliability tested, 141. Pearsonian coeffcient, see Correlation, coefl- 206-210. Source and nature, 41, 115 t, 139-141.
cient of. Movements during Armistice, June 5 2-12, Standard deviation, 190 t. Periods used. Nov. 5 9-16, Dec. 5 II, Dec. 5 27-28. Seasonal variation, 25 t, 41, 53 t.
For indices of seasonal variation, 115-116 t. Pig iron. Frequency tables, 25 t, 53 t. For line of secular trend, ii5-I i6 t. Secular trend, constants for, 38 t. Indices, adjusted, 25 t, 53 t. For various series, ii5-ii6 t. Standard deviation, 38 t. Link relatives, 25 t, 53 t, 71 t.
Persons, W. M., 3, 38 n, I3 n, I3 n, 206, 207, Retail. Secular trend, 4i, 70-7' c. 207 n, 210. Foods, June 5 3 t. Equation, 39 t.
Persons, W. M., articles, 4-107, 109-205, June General, Dec. 5 27, Dec. 5 27 c. Percentage deviations of moving average S 2-I2, July 5 2-I0, Aug. 5 2-8, Aug. 5 9- Role in business cycle, 206-210. from, 34-35 c.
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Percentage deviations of original items|Relatives, chain, 27, 27 n. | Method outlined, I 82-I 83. from, 7 I t. Adjustment, 28 n, 3I n. Standard for groups, I29.
Prices, wholesale. Formula, 27 n. Serrigny, B., 274 n, 278 n. Experiments in weighting, I5. MIedian and geometric mean, 28 n, 29-30 c. Service, statistical. I,n United States, June S 2-II, Nov. S 9-i6, Reserves, average, of New York City Clearing Of Review of Econom-ic Statistics, 3. 'Dec. S II-I2, 27-28. House banks. Of various publications, 5-6.
In various countries, June S 3 t, June S 3-5. Cycles, I 50, I90-I97 t, 204 c. Seybert, A., 2 I6 D, 2 I8 n. Prices, wholesale, U. S. Bureau of Labor Sta- Comparison with cycles of interest rates, Sbares sold on New York Stock Exchange,
tistics. Aug. S Io. Dumber of. Cycles, I44, I90-I97 t, 203 c, June S I2 c. Link relatives, month-to-month, I50, I60ot, Cycles, 43, io6 c, I90-I97 t, 200 c.
Link relatives, mointh-to-month, I44, I55 t, I77 t. Average and sum, I 23 n, t. i63 t. Actual, I77 t. Link relatives, 43, 79 t.
Actual, i63 t. Exceptional I 50. Actual, 79 t. Exceptional, I44. Frequency table, I60 t. Exceptional, 43. Frequency table, I55 t. Median, I60 t. Frequenlcy table, 57 t. Median, I55 t. Original data, I77 t, I78-I79 c, Median, 57 t.
Moving average, I44, i62 t, i62-i63 c. Percentage deviations from line of secular Moving averages, 43, 78 t, 78-79 c. Original data, i62-i63 c, i62 t. trend, I80 t. Percentage deviations from line of secular
Annual averages, 3I5 c. Source and nature, ii6 t, I50. trend, 34-35 c. Percentage deviations from line of secular Standard deviation, igi t. Original data, 78 t, 78-79 c.
trend, i63 t. Seasonal variation,Iso0,I 7 8i. | Percentage deviationsIfrom line of secular Source and nature, ii6 t, I42-I44- Frequency tables, I60 t. trend, 7 9 t, I I8. Standard deviation, 38 t, igi t. Indices, adjusted, I60 t, I78 i. Source and nature, 43, II 5 t.-
Seasonal variation, I44. Link relatives, I60 t, I77 t. Standard deviation, 38 t, I90 t. Frequency tables, I55 t. Norton's indices, I5I t. Seasonal variation, 43. Link relatives, I55 t, i63 t. Secular trend, line of, I50, I78-I79 c. Frequency table, 57 t.
Secular trend, line -of, I44, i62-i63 c. Equation, I 50. Indices not significant, 57 t. Constants for equation, 38 t. Percentage deviations of original items Link relatives, 57 t, 79 t. Equation, I44. from, I 80 t. Secular trend, line of, 43, 78-79 c. Percentage deviations of original items Review of Economic Statistics. Constants for equation, 38 t.
from, i63 t. Errors in January number, 2I2. Equation, 39 t. Private publications, statistics published by, Organization, purposes, etc., 3, 5-8. Percentage deviations of moving averages
5-8. Ricardo, D., 2go n. from, 34--35 c. Probability. Riesser, J., 275. Percentage cleviations of original items
Error in measurement, I 24-I 26. Robertson, D. H., 34. from, 79 t. Method of measurement, I25-I27- Rogers, T., 207 n. Shipbuilding, Dec. S 23-24. Precision variable, I,25-I26. Rome, New York exchange on, 260-26I t, 264- See MerchaDt marine. Theory of, I 24 n, I 24-I 27- 265 t. Silberling, N. J., article, 282-297, 32I-323. See Error, probable; Correlation. Rose, G., 295 n. Sixty-to-ninety day commercial paper, see
Production, June S 5, Nov. S i6. -Royal Statistical Society, see Journal of Royal Interest, rate of. Coal and Coke, 38 t, Dec. S '22-23, Dec. Statistical Society. Soetbeer, G. A., 275 n, 276 n, 278 n.
S 23 c. Rutter, F. R., 298 n. S;ources and nature of series, 5, 39-47, II5- Gold, Dec. S 24 c, 25. II6 t; I39-I5I. In France and Germany after Franco- Samples, adequacy in statistics, 6. Speare, C. F., 230, 230 n, 23I, 253 n.
Prussian War, 276-277, 277 t, 279. Sauerbeck, A., :142. Specie, see gold and specie. In Great Britain after Napoleonic Wars, Saving, after Franco-Prussian War, 278, 278 t, .Spectator, New York, 250.
296 t, 297, 297 c. 279. Speculation, after Franco-PrussiaDvwar, 2 75-2 78. In United States, after World War, June Say, I,., 269 n, 273, 273 n. Spring rise in stock market, II 5.
S 5, Sept. S II, Nov. S I6, Dec. S Io, I3- |Scattering of statistical data, see Dispersion; lStamp, J. C., 48. I5, 22-24. Error; Frequency tables. Standard deviation.
In various countries, Dec. S 22-24. Science, economic and statistical, 3. Definition, I I9 n. Metals, Dec. S 22-23, Dec. S 23 c. Seasonal variation. For various series, 36 t, 38 t, I90-I9I t. Oils, Dec. S 23, Dec. S 24 c. Tndices of, 23 t, 25 t, 29 c, 30 c, 5o-63 t, 64- Formnula, 36 n. Pig-iron, 38 t, 39 t, 40, 66-67 C, 66-67 t, Dec. 96 i, I56-I6I t, I64-I79 i, 3I8-3I9 C. Test for comparing fluctuations, II9, II8-
S 22-23, 23 C. Link relatives, month-to-month, 65- -103 t, II9 t. Purposes of Review of Economic Statistics, 3, 7. I63-I8I t, 259 t. Use as unit for cycles, 36.
| FrequeDcy tables, 23-2 5t, 5o63 t, I 55| Use informula for coefficient of correlation, Quarterly Journal of Economics, I9 n, 207 n, I6I t. I2 n.
242 n. Method summarized, I8-3I, 3I t, 3I6. Standard frequency tables of seasonal variation, See Fluctuations, seasonal; Methods, statis- 23-25 t, 5o63 t, I55-I6I t.
Railroads. tical. Standard series for group, defined, I 29. -iBnds yiel of, see Inerst T
rate of,_ _C
IO Secla tremnd, see Trre-nd , secular. Stanndrdr tab'les and carts.
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Quality, 5, 6. Equivalence of three methods of fitting, I2- Standard deviation, I90 t. Selection, 7. 13 n. Seasonal variation, 43. Significance of series, 7. Existence, 8. Indices not computed, 43. See Series; Cycles, business; Methods, sta- Explanation, 8-io. Link relatives, 8i t.
tistical; Business conditions, index of. Extension into future, 9. Secular trend, line of 43, 8o-8i c, I42. Steel. Fitting of curves. Equation, 39 t.
Production, Dec. S 23. Compound-interest curve, I2-i8, I4-I5 c, Equation corrected, I42. Production per capita, Parabola, I2-i8, 14-I5 C. United States Steel Products Co., 2I5 n.
Moving averages for various periods, II c. Straight line, I2-i8, I4-I5 c, i6-I7 C, 48. United States balance of trade, see Foreign Secular trend, II C. General considerations, 38-39. trade balance of U. S.
Seasonal variation of exports, 31 c, 320. Homogeneity in data necessary, 9. Units for comparing series, 36. Sterns, W. P., 2I7 n, 2i8 n, 219 n, 220 n. Method of curve-fitting, I8. Stockholm, New York exchange on, 262-265 t. Method of measurement, 8-i8. Variations, kinds of, II4-II5. Stocks, prices of, see Prices, average. Non-elimination, by moving averages, I1-I2. See Fluctuations; Variation, seasonal. Straight line, Of individual series, 39-48, I39-I5I. Variations, residual, 8.
Use for secular trend, 8-i8, II C, I4-I5 c, I6- Sample computation of line, I3 n. Variation, seasonal, I7 c. See Trend, secular. Selection of period, 9. Comparison for selected series, 32 c.
Sumner, VV. G., 2I6 n, 220 n. Superiority of straight line, I3, I4. Correction of indices for secular trend, 28. Supplement to Review of Economic Statistics, 3. Test of methods, i2-i8, I4-I5 c. Definition, II5.
Uncertainties in estimating, i6, i6-I7 c. Discussion for each series, 39-48, I39-I5I. Tables and charts, standard, see Standard Use in determining normality, 8--9. Frequency tables, 23-2 5 t, 50-63 t, I 55-i6i t.
tables and charts. Weighting, experiments in, I5. Indices for standard, 23 t, 25 t, 28-30 c, 32 c, Taylor, J., 284. Trotter, S., 2I9 n. 39-48,50-63 t, 64-ioi i, I39-I5I, I50-I5I t, Thralls, J., 4I. Tucker, R. S., article, 2I3-266. I 55-i6i t, i62-I79 i. Tobacco, 3I6, 3I8 c. Indices for exports, 240 c, 3I5-320, 3I8-3i9. Tonnage entered in foreign commerce of the Unemployment in various countries, Dec. S 25. Method of analysis illustrated, 3I t.
U. S. less lake traffic. Unfilled orders of U. S. Steel Corporation, see Of four interest rate series, 32 c. Cycles not computed, 44. U. S. Steel Corporation. Time-unit best suited, i8 n. Link relatives, month-to-month, 44, 83 t. United Kingdom, see England; Great Britain. See Fluctuations.
Actual, 83. United States Government. Veblen, T., 33 n, 206, 206 n. Exceptional, 44. Bureau of the Census, 2i8 n. Frequency table, 58 t. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Wages, 285 C, 286, 286 t. Median, 58 t. 2I5, 2i8 n, 298 n. After Franco-Prussian War, 278, 278 t, 279,
Moving averages, 44, 82 t, 82-83 c. Bureau of Immigration, 5. 279 t. Original data, 82 t, 82-83 c. Bureau of Labor Statistics, wholesale price After Napoleonic Wars, 285 c, 286, 286 t.
Source and nature, 44, I I6 t. indices, see Prices, wholesale. Wagner, A., 274 n. Standard deviation, I90 t. Department of Agriculture, 228 n. Wall Street Journal, I45, I46, I47, I48 n.
Seasonal variation, 44, 58 t, 82 i. Department of Commerce, 42, 44, 298 n. War, effect on business series, I28. See Armistice. Indices, adjusted, 58 t, 82 i. Federal Reserve Board, i8 n, I9 n, 238 nl, War, United States Civil, 222. Link relatives, 58 t, 83 t. 244 n. Weighting of recent years in secular trend, I4-
Secular trend, line of, 44, 82-83 c. Federal Reserve system, 39, July S 6, Aug. I5, 2Io-2II. Equation, 39 t. S I3-I5, Sept. S I3-25, Oct. S I3-I5, Nov. Weld, L. D., I2 n, I24 n.
Tooke, T., 282, 29I n. S 9-i6, Dec. S 2-4, I2. Wells, D. A., 223 n, 224, 225. Tourist's expenditures, 223, 227, 228-232, 253. House of Representatives, 2i8 n, 223. West, C. J., II9 n. Trade, see Business conditions; Foreign trade; National Monetary Commission, I9, 46, 47, Wheat, 3i6-317, 318 c.
Exports. I49, I50, 230 n, 232, 272 n, 273, 277, 277 n, Wlheat flour, 3I7, 3i8 c. Trend, secular. 278, 279 n. Williams, J. H., 242 n.
Adjustment for, in seasonal indices, 28, 29 c, Senate, 2I8 n 2I1 n, 220 n. Williams, J. H. 30 c. Shipping Board, 249 n, 3I2. Article, 2I3-266.
Comparison of methods, I3. Statistics collected by, 5. Memorandum, 206-2IO. Computation of line, I3 n. Treasury, Secretary of, 2i8 n, 247 n. Wilis, H. P., June S 2. Constants in equations for series, 38 t. War Industries Board, 3II n. Wirth, M., 275, 275 n, 278. Definition, 9--IO, II5. United States Steel Corporation 43 n. Withers, H., 240 n. Deviations, percentage, of moving averages United States Steel Corporation, unfilled orders Wood, and manufacturer of, 3I9 C, 320.
from, 34-35 C. of. Wood, G. H., 286. Deviations, percentage, of original items from, Cycles, 43-44, I42, I90-I97 t, 202 C. Wood, W. R., 295 n.
64-99 t, I63-I8I t. Average and sum, I23 t, n. Effect of changing length of period, 38. Link relatives, actual, 8i t. Yale Review, 226 n, 229 n, 230 n. Elimination, IO, IO n, I2 n, I3 n, II7-II8, Moving average, 43-44, 8o t, 8o-8i c. Yield of ten railroad bonds, see Interest, rate of.
I37-I38. Original data, 8o-8i c, 8o-8i t. Yule, G. U., I2 n, 27 n, 36, 36 n, I25 n, I30, Equations of lines, 39 t. Source and nature, 43, II5 t, I4I. I30 n, I3I n.
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