ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO GUIDE THE DESIGN OF NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS PLANS

Ismael Fofana and Ousmane Badiane

Africa Regional Office, IFPRI

ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO GUIDE THE DESIGN

OF NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS PLANS

1. KEY TASKS

2. TECHNICAL RESOURCES AND EXPERTISE

3. DELIVERABLES

4. SELECTED RESULTS FOR ECOWAS COUNTRIES

OUTLINE

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Achieving Malabo commitments requires

• Investments in priority areas

• Policies to support investments

• Institutions to support implementation

NAIPs 2.0 have to address all three dimensions

NAIPs 2.0

APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

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NAIPs 2.0

APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

1. Identify metrics, tools, methodologies to:

• measure targets

• define milestones

• guide progress and performance tracking/ review

Key Tasks

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NAIPs 2.0

APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

2. Assess country status and profile

• Baselining progress and gaps wrt to individual targets and commitments

- Pre-CAADP level

- Changes during NAIPs 1.0

- Averages during NAIPs 1.0

Key Tasks

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NAIPs 2.0

APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

3. Prospective analysis and goal setting

• Possible and desired future outcomes wrt to individual targets and commitments

- Related inputs, outputs, outcomes

- Policy and institutional requirements

Key Tasks

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NAIPs 2.0

APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

4. Policy and Program Opportunities and Best Practices

• What are key program components

• What are required supporting polices

• What are best practices

Key Tasks

Toolkit

o Clarify metrics and data needs;

o define methodologies

o Specify core program components

Experts Groupo 216 local experts identified

o 55 days of training workshop implemented

Task Forceo 20 International experts to provide

backstopping support to experts group

Coordinationo IFPRI/ReSAKSS/AfricaLead

ReSAKSS Resources for NAIP 2.0 Evidence-Based Planning

NAIPs 2.0

APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

Experts Mobilized by Area

Thematic AreasTotal Number

of Experts

Agricultural Investments and Growth, and Poverty Reduction 22

Public Expenditure Analysis 13

Intra-Africa and Regional Trade 28

Food Security and Nutrition 24

Gender 22

Climate Smart Agriculture and Resilience 18

Inclusive Growth and Value Chain Development 23

Mutual Accountability and Institutional Architecture 66

All Thematic Areas 216

Mobilization and Deployment of Local Experts

NAIPs 2.0APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

Key Deliverables per Country

• Malabo Status Assessment and Profile Report (SAP)

• Malabo Goals and Milestones Report (MGM)

• Country Policy and Program Opportunities Report (PPO)

NAIPs 2.0

APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

Experts Mobilized by AreaAug 16 SAP Reports for 6 pilot-countries

Sep 16 First set of clinics, Dakar, Senegal (16 days)

Dec 16 Second set of clinics, Dakar, Senegal (3 days)

Feb 17 Third set of clinics, Dakar, Senegal (16 days)

May 17 Fourth set of clinics, Dakar, Senegal (20 days)

Jul 17SAP Reports for 7 additional countriesMGM Reports for 2 pilot-countries

Aug 17 NAIP Overarching Group Webinar I (5 Days)

Sep 17 NAIP Overarching Group Webinar I (5 Days)

Oct 17 NAIP Overarching Group Webinar II (15 Days)

Oct 17SAP Reports for 9 additional countries MGM Reports for 13 additional countries

Oct 17 Validation Workshop of ECOWAS SAP Reports and MGM Report

Jan 18MGM Reports for additional 4 to 7 countries PPO Reports for 13 additional countries

Progress Timeline and Current Status

STATUS ASSESSMENT AND PROFILE REPORT

GOALS AND MILESTONES REPORT

POLICY AND PROGRAM OPPORTUNITIES

ECOWAS

1 BENIN Yes Yes In progress

2 BURKINA FASO Yes Yes In progress

3 CABO VERDE Yes Yes In progress

4 COTE D'IVOIRE Yes Yes In progress

5 GAMBIA Yes Yes In progress

6 GHANA Yes Yes In progress

7 GUINEA Yes Yes In progress

8 GUINEA BISSAU Yes Yes In progress

9 LIBERIA Yes Yes In progress

10 MALI Yes Yes In progress

11 NIGER Yes Yes In progress

12 NIGERIA Yes Yes In progress

13 SENEGAL Yes Yes In progress

14 SIERRA LEONE Yes Yes In progress

15 TOGO Yes Yes In progress

NON-ECOWAS

1 ETHIOPIA Yes In progress

2 KENYA Yes In progress

3 MALAWI Yes

4 MOZAMBIQUE Yes

5 RWANDA Yes

6 TANZANIA Yes

7 UGANDA Yes In progress

NAIPs 2.0APPRAISL ANALYSIS AND CAPACITY BUILDING

Goals and Milestones AnalysisSelected Findings for ECOWAS Countries

• Business as Usual (BaU)

• Malabo (Achieving Malabo Poverty and Hunger Goals)

• NAIP (Carried out for 6 out of 15 countries)

Three Scenarios

I.1 Reduce Poverty and End Hunger

Additional growth in incomes required over BAU to reach Malabo targets

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

Household Total Expenditure, Annual Increase 2015-2025, BaU vs Malabo Scenarios

BaU

Malabo

I.1 Reduce Poverty and End Hunger

Income Growth under BAU and NAIP Scenarios vs Malabo Goals

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

Be

nin

Bu

rkina Faso

Cap

e Verd

e

Co

te d'Ivo

ire

Gam

bia

Gh

ana

Gu

inea

Gu

inea B

issau

Liberia

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Senegal

Sierra Leon

e

Togo

Household Total Expenditure, Annual Growth Rate 2015-2025, All Scenarios

BaU

NAIP

Malabo

II.2 Improve Food Security and Nutrition

Growth in Food consumption under BaU vs Malabo Targets

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Benin BurkinaFaso

Coted'Ivoire

Gambia Ghana Guinea Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal Togo

Food Expenditure Growth, Annual Growth Rate 2015-2025

BaU Malabo

II. GOALS AND MILESTONES FOR AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION

ECOWAS MS MALABO GOALS AND MILESTONES REPORT

II.4 Improve Private and Public Investments in Agriculture

Required Rate of Increase of agricultural expenditure Share between 2015 and 2025 to achieve Malabo targets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Ben

in

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Cap

e V

erd

e*

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Gam

bia

Gh

ana

Gu

inea

Gu

inea

Bis

sau

Lib

eria

Mal

i

Nig

er

Nig

eri

a*

Sen

egal

Sier

ra L

eo

ne

Togo

Agricultural Public Spending, Annual Change 2015-2025

BaU Malabo

III. 1 Increase Agricultural Production and Productivity

Required Growth in Agricultural Productivity between 2015 and 2025 to Meet Malabo Targets vs BaU

-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%

Ben

in

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Cap

e V

erd

e*

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Gam

bia

Gh

ana

Gu

inea

Gu

inea

Bis

sau

Lib

eria

Mal

i

Nig

er

Nig

eri

a*

Sen

egal

Sier

ra L

eo

ne

Togo

Agricultural Value Added per Agricultural Worker, Annual Change 2015-2025

BaU Malabo

III. 1 Increase Agricultural Production and Productivity

-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

Ben

in

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Cap

e V

erd

e*

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Gam

bia

Gh

ana

Gu

inea

Gu

inea

Bis

sau

Lib

eria

Mal

i

Nig

er

Nig

eri

a*

Sen

egal

Sier

ra L

eo

ne

Togo

Agricultural Value Added per Hectare of Agricultural Land, Annual Change 2015-2025

BaU Malabo

Required Growth in Agricultural Productivity between 2015 and 2025 to Meet Malabo Targets vs BaU

II.2 Increase Intra-Africa Trade

Required Increase in Role of trade to Meet Malabo Targets

-50%0%

50%100%150%200%250%

Ben

in

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Cap

e V

erd

e*

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Gam

bia

Gh

ana

Gu

inea

Gu

inea

Bis

sau

Lib

eria

Mal

i

Nig

er

Nig

eri

a*

Sen

egal

Sier

ra L

eo

ne

Togo

Increase in Ratio of Agricultural Exports and Imports to Agricultural Value Added, Cumulative Change 2015-2025

BaU Malabo

II.4 Improve Private and Public Investments in Agriculture

Increase in private investments to achieve the Malabo targets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Ben

in

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Cap

e V

erd

e*

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Gam

bia

Gh

ana

Gu

inea

Gu

inea

Bis

sau

Lib

eria

Mal

i

Nig

er

Nig

eri

a*

Sen

egal

Sier

ra L

eo

ne

Togo

Agricultural Private Investments, Annual Change 2015-2025

BaU Malabo

x

THANKS