IBF RECERTIFICATION: 10 POINTS APRIL 23–25, 2018 | NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA USA PHONE: +1.516.504.7576 | EMAIL: [email protected]| WEB: ibf.org/events/neworleans2018/ Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning PREDICTIVE BUSINESS & PLANNING CONFERENCE FORECASTING ANALYTICS W/ DATA SCIENCE & PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS WORKSHOP FREE REGISTRATION GET THE 4TH PERSON FREE FOR EVERY 3 REGISTRATIONS SILVER PACKAGE ONLY $1,299 USD WHEN YOU REGISTER BY MARCH 16, 2018! (IBF MEMBERS RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL $100 OFF!)
Transcript
IBF RECERTIFICATION: 10 POINTS
A P R I L 2 3 – 2 5 , 2 0 1 8 | N E W O R L E A N S, L O U I S I A N A U S A
W / D A T A S C I E N C E & P R E D I C T I V E A N A L Y T I C S W O R K S H O P
FREE REGISTRATION
GET THE 4TH PERSON
FREE FOR EVERY 3
REGISTRATIONS
SILVER PACKAGE
ONLY $1,299 USD WHEN YOU REGISTER BY
MARCH 16, 2018!(IBF MEMBERS RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL $100 OFF!)
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Hands-On Data Science & Predictive Analytics This workshop will provide practical tips to incorporate into your own organization, where you’ll learn to leverage the cutting-edge of analytics technology. We will focus on data science applications for forecasting and best practices using Python. Recent advances in forecasting, often called Predictive Analytics techniques, involve the use of Big Data, including analysis of textual data like that created by social media (Facebook etc.). In this workshop, you will fully develop and script your own analytics solutions while simultaneously learning Python and its capabilities. This ½ day masterclass will be especially helpful for demand planners and forecasters looking to implement the latest advancements and next-level techniques.
1 Struggling To Be Heard in Demand Planning & Analytics: A New Framework
To Present Business Intelligence & Insight For Greater InfluenceHave you ever presented solid, analytically based findings only for your insight to be ignored by key decision makers? Have you ever been told that more people would understand your presentation if it was simplified a little? Based on my experience, almost everyone in an analytical role will answer yes to these questions. Over the course of my career, my findings have often been challenged by people working on gut feeling rather than sound analysis, often contrary to what the data is telling us. And trust me when I say it’s not a case of simplifying the final presentation because it is impossible to make it simple enough for everyone to understand. Given these unsatisfying outcomes, I went in search of answers. The training I found was not helpful so I decided to partner with an organizational behavior consultant (co-presenter
• Overview of Ensemble Modeling • DBSCAN clustering, anomaly extraction • Random Forest Trees
EDUCATIONAL SESSIONS
K E YN OT E P R E S E N TAT I O N
A Seat at the Leadership Table: Gaining Management Buy In For Forecasting at General Motors
Ted Hanawalt Director, Global Long Term Forecasting and Industry Analysis General Motors
VIII. MACHINE LEARNING MODULE 3 – ADVANCED TOPICS
• Gradient Boosted Trees• Explaining model behavior• Extended R Programming
IX. DATA VISUALIZATION• Plotting Basics• Advanced Graphics
X. TOPICS OF EXPLORATION
MOND AY | A P R I L 2 3 , 2 0 1 8 | 1 : 3 0 P M – 4 : 3 0 P M
IBF MEMBERS OR GOLD PACKAGE ONLY
PRE-CONFERENCE: HANDS-ON DATA SCIENCE & PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS WORKSHOP
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Tom Dyer) to develop an analytically tailored solution for people like us. We took collaboration tools as a starting point, enhancing them to create a framework for managing the people-focused element of the analytical process. In this presentation we will discuss the framework we developed, the logic behind it, why it is suitable for analytical people, how we introduced the framework to my team, and the feedback we have received so far. We will also discuss the highly positive impact this approach can have on your career path.
You will learn:• To truly understand the importance of ownership in the business
process• How to manage both people and analytics to drive greater impact
for your findings• A practical framework to implement in your own organization
Randy WilpExecutive Director, Global Commercial Forecasting CoE (GCF)Merck & Co., Inc.
Tom DyerPresidentCollaborative Outcomes
2 Go Big or Go Home: Leveraging Big Data to Improve Supply Chain Performance
Today’s systems capture a tremendous amount of supply chain related data. To take advantage of this capability, firms must transform this information into better decisions and improved performance. The ultimate goal is to transform this mass of unstructured data into useful performance indicators and diagnostics that result in improved service, lower costs and lower inventory. Those firms who can successfully transform data into actionable business insight will gain a sustainable competitive advantage. In this interactive session, I will provide a roadmap for applying a supply chain analytics framework that coordinates people, process and technology, and integrates all three to maximize results. I will discuss what data is needed and how should it be structured. Highlights include using the SCOR Model to provide a comprehensive set of performance indicators at both the business and operational levels, and why selecting the correct analytics and creating detailed definitions needs to occur before software programming. With practical insight into managing the whole process, you’ll learn how to overcome resistance to such an ambitious transformation project and leave with a solid idea of how to leverage Big Data in your own organizations.
You will learn:• How to structure a reporting and analysis process based on end
user needs.• How to link performance indicators across strategic, tactical and
operational levels.• Examples of KPI’s, process performance indicators and root-cause
diagnostics
Alan L. Milliken, CPFSr. Manager, SC Capability DevelopmentBASF
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3 Quantitative Insight For Qualitative Data: Revolutionary Text Analytics with
PythonWhen analytics professionals think of analyzing data, we automatically think of number crunching. But advancements in computational capabilities have now made analyzing words, sentences and paragraphs a central pillar of a successful analytics strategy. We now have the remarkable power to turn qualitative data into quantitative, actionable insight. In this hands-on session, you will discover the amazing capabilities of text analytics and how to efficiently and effectively mine information like customer comments and social media posts. The presentation will demystify complex procedures in Natural Language Processing utilizing open-source tools and resources. What’s more, I will guide you through the core concepts, what you need to get started, the challenges you may face, and of course the benefits you can realize from this approach. The techniques you will learn can be brought to your organization to enable your own text analytics initiatives.
You will learn:• Learn how to program in Python, a powerful and popular open-
source application for Data Science• Perform textual analysis techniques including language
normalization, sentiment analysis and topic extraction• Enhance your analytic arsenal with essential, insightful and cost-
4 3 Cornerstones of Planning: Safety Stock Analytics, Consolidation and Selling to
ManagementIf there are 3 skills that every demand planner needs in their tool box, they are: calculating safety stock, consolidating the demand plan, and communicating the value of it to management. The value of calculating safety stock is clear but identifying the approach that best suits your firm is not so easy. This hands-on session will examine lead time, stock determinations process, demand variations and seasonality so you can implement the best method for your organization. Consolidating plans is key to developing a Management Production Schedule that ensures all required resources are available to meet the plan. In this seminar, I’ll be discussing who should own the consolidated demand plan, what should be included in it, and how to obtain the required numbers from across the company. Last but not least, I’ll provide you with an approach to drive home the value of the plan, with practical tips to communicate importance of findings through charts and graphs to drive escalation and decisions. We will also look at software solutions to drive down planning cycle lead times and minimize resource needs. With real-life examples from Dexcom, a leading manufacturer of healthcare solutions, I aim to provide you with the building blocks for S&OP maturity.
1:30 pm – 4:30 pm PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP: PREDICTIVE BUSINESS ANALYTICS & BIG DATA WITHIN THE SUPPLY CHAIN AND OPERATIONS (IBF MEMBERS ONLY)
5:00 pm – 7:00 pm EARLY CONFERENCE REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
T H U R S D AY | A P R I L 21, 2016
7:00 am – 8:00 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS & REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
8:00 am – 8:15 am WELCOME & OPENING REMARKS
8:20 am – 9:15 am 1 Making Analytical / Statistical Tools Work for a Highly Seasonal BusinessPeter C. Thomas, CPFHead of Demand Planning & ForecastingDean W. FaceBusiness Process LeaderDUPONT CROP PROTECTION
2 Leveraging Consumption Based Data to Optimize Omni-channel Demand PlanningDimitri SinkelPrincipalVALUE CHAIN OPT
9:20 am – 10:15 am 3 Predictive Business Analytics for Everyone: Case Study from Burger KingArya EskamaniSenior Analyst, Predictive AnalyticsRESTAURANT SERVICES INC.
4 Using Downstream Data to Improve Forecast Accuracy and Determining the Quantitative Impact of our Sales and Marketing ProgramsCharles W. Chase, Jr., CPFAdvisory Industry ConsultantSAS INSTITUTE, INC.
10:15 am – 11:25 am MORNING BREAK | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
11:25 am – 12:20 Pm 5 Where Should Big Data Live in an Organization?Sean MacCarthyGlobal Head of AnalyticsCLAIRE’SManik AryapadiSenior Manager, Retail & Operations PracticesA.T. KEARNEY
6 A Quantitative Exercise that turns Data & Forecasting into a Highly Valuable Business Tool at MondelēzGreg SpiraForecasting Lead, NARuttika JoshiManager, Forecast & Inventory ModelingThe Promise of Analytics - The Art of the PossibleMONDELĒZ INTERNATIONALRick DavisVice President, Business IntelligenceKELLOGG’S
12:20 pm– 12:50 pm LUNCH
12:50 pm– 1:30 pm KEYNOTE PRESENTATION |
1:30 pm – 2:00 pm VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
2:05 pm –3:00 pm 7 Thinking Omni-Channel / eCommerce Analytics in a Brick and Mortar WorldRami JubranManager, Demand Planning/WholesaleHONEST COMPANY
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3:05 pm – 4:00 pm
9 Want to Survive in the Omni-Channel Age? Then Get a Grip on AnalyticsRobert WadeSenior Project ManagerENVISTA
10 How Valuable Are Your Customers? The Power of Forecasting Customer Lifetime ValueBrij MasandFounder/CEOACTIONABLE ANALYTICS CORP.
4:10pm – 5:10 pm ROUND ROBIN ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS
5:15 pm – 6:15 pm IBF COCKTAIL RECEPTION
F R I D AY | | A P R I L 22, 2016
8:00 am – 9:00 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS & REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
9:00 am – 9:55 am 11 Financial Analytics and Business Intelligence within S&OPCasey PustelnikPorexVP of Demand Planning and Business Intelligence
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10:00 am – 10:55 am 13 Why Integrating Supply Chain and Finance Is Possible, and How you Can Achieve it
Janice Gullo, CPFSenior ConsultantLean Six for SCM Consulting, LLCKai TrepteChief Data Scientist and CTOOBB Solutions
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10:55 am – 11:05 am MID-MORNING BREAK | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
11:05 am – 12:00 Pm 15 Get with the Program: Mastering Predictive Analytics with R Scripting for Better ForecastingSara BrumbaughManaging PrincipalCeres Analytics
16 Developing an Analytics Framework to Measure Success and Develop a Product Planning Roadmap: The Make-A-Wish Case StudyMelanie CedarSenior AssociatePwC
12:05 pm – 12:20 pm CLOSING REMARKS & GIVEAWAYS
CO N F E R E N C E CO N C LU D E S
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You will learn:• The various methods to calculate safety stock and
recommendations for your organization• How to get buy-in from the organization for your method of choice
and the outcome• Pulling in HR and area managers into the S&OP process to develop
Rough Cut Capacity Plans
Michael LavaglioDirector, Supply Chain PlanningDexcom
5New Game, New Rules: How To Win the Replenishment Game by Taming The Big
Data GiantAs data grows, so does the demand for effective decision making at both ends of the supply chain. In years past, VMI (Vendor Managed Inventory), was the gold standard for many companies. However, as Big Data becomes ever more important, reliance on this outdated methodology is causing many companies to lose the game or drop out altogether. At Continental Tire, however, we saw the need to harness the massive amount of data that is available today and we responded by reengineering our entire replenishment process, one we now refer to as Collaborative Replenishment. With a new demand planning system combining EDI and SAP we are now prepared to handle the challenges of Big Data, at any level of the game. For some customers, we forecast and order their inventory at the SKU level, and others at their SKU/DC level. This process manages decisions at all steps of the supply chain. In this interactive session, I will reveal how and why Collaborative Replenishment is gaining momentum in our company and how it provides clarity and responses quicker than any other process we have ever used. After all, the goal of a supply chain is to deliver the right product at the right place, at the right time, and at the right cost. No matter what industry you are in, the Big Data beast is coming. I will show you how you can succeed in this new paradigm with Collaborative Replenishment as key tool in your supply chain playbook.
You will learn:• What Collaborative Replenishment is and why it works• How to choose a forecasting system that can also handle
Collaborative Replenishment• How to tame the Big Data giant by reengineering your
6Understand your Business’s Heart Beat: Analyzing Your Drivers of Volatility
Your sales volatility is your company’s heartbeat, and you want it steady and predictable. Finding the natural rhythms of your SKUs’ volatility is the goal of any Demand Planner and Forecaster because it allows us to react proactively. If we can do this, our operations are smoother, and we make much smarter decisions. This session will reveal how to identify the different sources of volatility for your products. We will
investigate the economic, psychological, engineering, design, seasonal, historical and behavioral factors that influence demand. Once we have a handle on all these factors, we need to leverage the insight gained, which is why I will show how to validate and analyze your findings to develop strategies to lower operating costs and achieve greater supply chain efficiency. Additional highlights include examining the often overlooked internal sources of volatility within your own Production, Logistics and Warehousing. This is not one to miss.
You will learn:• Effective ways to build a BI system able to capture and validate
data• How to develop strategies to cut costs associated with excess
inventory, lost sales, expediting logistics, unconsolidated freight cost and more
• How to identify different sources of internal volatility within your own supply chain
Luidi MaiaGeneral Manager for Landing Strings Services in North America and CaribbeanOneSubsea / Schlumberger
7How Effective Was Your Last Promotion? Using Multivariate Regression To
Quantify Impact of Promotions On Sales In workshops and tutorials, it appears remarkably easy to calculate the lift impact of marketing promotions. In the real world, however, isolating the effects of promotions and events from regular variation can prove highly challenging. But that shouldn’t stop us from trying because knowing which promotional activities work and which don’t is an incredibly powerful way to drive sales. Software packages promise easy fixes, but these often result in false positives. So how does one approach the calculation of event impacts within a complex and dynamic sales environment? This hands-on presentation reveals how to figure out which initiatives work and which don’t. As I’ll reveal, there are a number of data preparation steps that can help pave the way for clearer results, and a number of different regression and analytical techniques that are better suited for particular types of events. This session will provide an overview of both data preparation and analytical techniques, as well as insights into how to mitigate data availability gaps. I will leave you with a powerful methodology that will allow you to gain highly valuable insight, allowing your organization to clearly identify the initiatives that drive growth. The successful application of analytics to Sales and Marketing has been a long time coming, and I’ll show you how it’s done.
You will learn:• How to reduce the background noise in demand data to isolate
the impact of sales events such as promotions, market changes and competitor events
• Which regression techniques best suit particular datasets and scenarios
• How to implement repeatable multivariate regression processes for demand planning organizations
Jonathon KarelseChief Strategy OfficerFactors Group of Nutritional Companies
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But make no mistake, Blockchain is set to revolutionize many aspects of business, including Predictive Analytics. In this hands-on session, we will reveal how Blockchain works, the underlying assumptions, how it operates as an independent data source and how it integrates with Predictive Analytics. We will dive into how modern analytical platforms are currently being used to deliver valuable business insight, explaining how Blockchain’s distributed ledgers meets analytics software with a demo of transactional data. This Qlik Sense demo shows how practical Predictive Analytics is executed on Blockchain and conventional data. Highlights of this session include which challenges can be overcome by using Blockchain technology and the real applications by the cutting-edge companies at the forefront of this remarkable technology.
You will learn:• How Blockchain and distributed ledgers will change data analytics• Advantages of Blockchain Predictive Analytics over conventional
centralized and decentralized systems• How modern analytical platforms are used to consume distributed
ledger data sources
Fred HeferCEO
John FitzgeraldVice PresidentPomerol Partners
11One Simple Formula, Huge Cost Savings: Using COV Analysis to Slash
WMAPEReducing forecast error is the goal of any forecaster, and Coefficient of Variation (COV) is a valuable weapon that should feature in your arsenal. And it’s no wonder that mature planning environments utilize COV as the benefits to Operating Income are clear, not to mention it drives credibility in the forecast and establishes forecasting as a respected driver of growth. In this hands-on session, I will show you the required formulas to calculate your Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error (WMAPE) reduction and its impact on the company’s bottom line. You’ll see all the factors that comprise the formula and understand how to control your variables to address forecast accuracy improvement. I will leave you with a clear idea to employ COV analysis on your own portfolio and recommendations to implement it into your supply chain network. With practical tips from real-life scenarios at Hershey’s, I aim to give you the tools to make positive changes in your own processes.
You will learn:• How to calculate the financial benefits of improving forecast
accuracy• How to conduct COV analysis with takeaways to implement in your
own portfolio• How to change variables to drive improvements in forecast
accuracy
Mike GuerraSr. Manager, Demand Planning and Customer Supply ChainHershey’s
8A View from Analytics: Transforming the Forecasting Function
In this session, we’ll examine how the Analytics Team partners with the Demand Planning organization to transform the process, the roles, and the perception of Forecasting at Kellogg’s. We’ll look at how the right data and analytics enhances the forecasting process, ensures adoption, and elevates the role of Demand Planner. Finally, we’ll see how advanced analytics are ushering in a new era of simplified and optimized integrated planning. Join us for an interactive session, where you’ll hear case studies from real world lessons learned that you can apply to your own organization upon return.
You will learn:• How to use analytical thinking to transform the modeling process• How to use data to drive adoption and ensure successful change• About elevating the role of Forecaster from tactical to strategic
partner
Chad SchumacherSr. Director, Global AnalyticsKellogg’s
9Adapting To The Biggest Ever Disruption In Demand Planning: How To Become An
Analytics-Driven OrganizationAnalytics-driven forecasting means more than measuring trend and seasonality. You can’t measure all the demand patterns with these rudimentary methods, nor can you rely on your “gut feeling” judgment to explain all the unexplained variance. Companies need to move to a more analytics-oriented culture if they want to better understand their customers and more accurately predict future demand. But it takes time to transition to an effective analytics environment, and requires an enterprise-wide effort to implement the necessary corporate mindset. You will need to invest in developing new analytics skills, horizontal processes and large-scale technology. This hands-on session will touch on all these areas, as well as why analytics-driven forecasting combined with AI is changing forecasting and demand planning forever.
You will learn:• The key disruptions that are changing the demand planning
landscape• How Artificial Intelligence combined with domain knowledge
outperforms human judgment• The people, process, analytics and technology requirements to
become an analytics-driven organization
Charles Chase, CPFAdvisory Industry ConsultantSAS Institute, Inc.
10 New Kid On The Blockchain: Leveraging Blockchain Data With
Predictive Analytics and ForecastingBlockchain continues to be one of the hottest buzzwords in business, yet real examples of successful application remain few and far between.
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and Demand Planning Go Head To HeadChess tells us a lot about the possibilities for forecasting. Thanks to Deep Learning, algorithms are now able to outsmart even the greatest Chess Grandmasters. We know therefore, that for certain functions, machines are vastly superior to humans. With this in mind, we should all be pretty excited about what they can do for forecast accuracy. Research says that Artificial Intelligence promises to reduce forecasting errors by 30 to 50%, reduce lost sales from product unavailability by up to 65%, and reduce overall inventory by 20 to 50%. But we cannot realize these kinds of gains until demand planners and data scientists compare their strengths and limitations to find alignment. In this thought provoking session, a top MBA demand planner and a globally ranked Deep Learning expert compare their demand forecasting superpowers, and their weaknesses. They will also propose two key areas that Machine Learning can solve with practical takeaways for your own organization.
You will learn:• A story about chess and how AI can forecast better than humans• Real demand planner problems where Machine Learning can help• A framework for ranking Machine Learning forecasting applications
based on industry & company characteristics
Vivek Sasikumar, Advisor of Demand Planning & Supply Chain Strategy
Nima Shahbaz. Co-founderDeepnify
13The Power Of “Forecastability”: The Ability To Know How Forecastable a
Product Is“Forecastability” is a frequently discussed, yet still vague, notion of how accurately we can expect to forecast a given time series. This is a highly powerful concept because, if forecastability is known, it can be used to segment time series into forecastable vs. unforecastable. Then we can apply the appropriate process and planning approaches to each segment. But is there a precise definition of forecastability, and can forecastability be determined from the historical behavior of a time series? This interactive presentation answers these questions, reviews the prevailing ideas underpinning the topic, and examines how leaders in the field leverage it. I aim to provide a more rigorous definition of the concept and determine its usefulness in forecasting and planning. What’s more, I will provide a practical framework to incorporate this methodology into your own demand planning process.
You will learn:• How leading experts view forecastability and its underlying
assumptions.• The value, drawbacks, and limitations of the forecastability concept.• How to apply the concept to guide forecasting and planning
efforts in your own organization.
Mary Côté, Director, Product Development MAXIMUS Canada
Michael Gilliland, Product Marketing ManagerSAS Institute, Inc.
14Time-Based Forecasting is Far From Obsolete: Mastering the Basics Of
Statistical ForecastingIf you are connected with any Supply Chain managers and consultants on LinkedIn, you’re likely seeing a lot of content on Probabilistic Forecasting and Demand Driven MRP. You might even see sensational claims that time-based forecasting is almost unneeded in some methods. Is statistical forecasting therefore obsolete? In short, not even close. If you’re a demand planner, you’re likely wondering whether to implement neural networks and machine learning into your processes, and whilst these can be valuable, the bigger question is this: are you currently getting the most out of statistical forecasting? Before you consider implementing advanced methods, you must leverage time-based methods like Holt-Winters and Box-Jenkins at various levels (top down, bottom up, middle out). In this hands-on session, I will challenge you to consider whether you’ve effectively implemented time-based models, reinforce its value, and provide practical tips to really master the basics.
You will learn:• How one Demand Planning Manager views demand driven
manufacturing planning and Probabilistic Forecasting in a period of technological change
• How to master the basics of statistical forecasting (Holt-Winters, Box-Jenkins, etc.)
• How to experiment with neural networks/deep learniing predictive models without getting side-tracked
Jon Weininger, S&OP Manager–Demand PlanningGeorgia-Pacific Gypsum
15Honda’s Forecasting “Octopus System”: Incorporating Business Intelligence
Into Predictive Analytics For many years, forecasting in the Auto Industry was a standalone process whereby forecasters were separated from the Business Intelligence units inside their own companies. This lack of integration made gathering the information needed to forecast a long and difficult exercise and missed out on capitalizing on valuable insight. The delay in getting the necessary data was a major problem, because it prevented us from keeping up with the demands of the fast-paced manufacturing process. Something had to change, which is why Honda North America recently developed an innovative benchmark forecasting approach called the “Octopus System”, which allows us to utilize Business Intelligence as a part of our predictive analytics flow in a way that is fast and efficient. In this interactive session, I will reveal the value this approach adds to the company, and how we facilitate it with our P. R.O. M.P. T approach (Prioritize, React, Organize, Mobilize, Plan, Think) with key takeaways for your own organization.
You will learn:• The role of Business Intelligence in Predictive Analytics within an
Auto Industry manufacturing environment.• How the Octopus System facilitates collaboration at Honda North
America• Our “SWAT” team approach based on P. R.O. M.P. T. to incorporate
Business Intelligence into the Predictive Analytics process
Mark Bar, CPF, Market Quality Forecasting Manager Honda North America, Inc.
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19Watch Out Millennials, Generation PI Is Coming: Future Of Data Science &
Demand Planning Roles Move over Millennials, you have some competition coming. I’m talking about the next generation who are growing up with Siri and Alexa as their parents. The future of Data Science and Predictive Analytics will depend not only on technological advancements but also the people that adapt or use them. In this hands-on session we will take an honest look at the next generation of Data Scientists and Demand Planners and what it will take to succeed in these fields, and what this evolving role may look like when Generation PI comes of age. I will discuss the current skills gap that holds back the forecasting, demand planning and business analytics disciplines, one that is only set to get worse unless we act. I will reveal what skills and competencies are needed for companies to fully leverage the next stage of technology which includes including Machine Learning, AI and Blockchain.
You will learn:• The core competencies companies will be looking for in the future
and what gaps we currently see.• Key technology advancements such as Machine Learning, AI,
Blockchain and others, and what they mean specifically to us as Demand Planners.
• Options and opinions of the centralized or decentralized role of Data Science and Predictive analytics in the future.
Eric Wilson, CPFDirector of Planning | Escalade Sports Director of Thought Leadership | Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning
16Don’t Fear The Unknown: Incorporating Uncertainty Into Your
Forecasts and PlansUncertainty in business is unavoidable and a critical driver of business performance. And yet, other than running a few low/medium/high scenarios, most companies fail to incorporate uncertainty into their forecasting and planning processes. What’s more, many companies fail to incorporate uncertainty into their decision-making objectives which can really limit an organization’s effectiveness – after all, trying to maximize your best-case scenario for profitability is very different to maximizing your worst-case scenario. In this interactive session, I will focus on how uncertainty can be estimated (both by software and by humans) and modeled to improve various types of forecasts and plans within an organization. Highlights include the modeling you need, and how to present uncertainty analysis to management teams without getting lost in the details. By embracing volatility, we can understand it, plan for it, and mitigate it.
You will learn:• Why you and your organization should be incorporating
uncertainty into your forecasting and planning processes• The role of uncertainty estimation, modeling (including Monte
Carlo simulation), and analysis in these processes• How uncertainty factors into short-term operational planning
vs. long-term strategic planning and how to present uncertainty analysis to management teams.
Brian Lewis, Ph.D.Executive Vice President Vanguard Software
17R You Ready? How to Teach Yourself the Basics of R Forecasting And Beyond
Recent years have seen increasing interest in technologies such as R and Python for data analysis and predictive modeling in demand forecasting. These tools have the potential to augment and revitalize the forecasting processes, but it can be challenging to know how to begin. In this hands-on discussion, I will share my experiences learning R, coming from the perspective of someone who does not have a background in computer science. I will detail various free and inexpensive resources for learning R, as well as some recommendations for packages that are well-suited for demand planning. With real-life examples of the steps taken to implement R forecasting in a major pharmaceutical company, I will reveal the opportunities it provides, its advantages over traditional modelling, lessons learned, and challenges faced.
You will learn:• What R forecasting is and the value it adds to demand planning• The basics of learning R and the best tools to facilitate the process• Practical tips to incorporate R forecasting in your own demand
planning organization
Sara BrumbaughManaging PrincipalCeres Analytics
To Be Announced
Institute of BusinessForecasting & Planning
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Increase your networking opportunities at IBF’s Conference by joining us at our very popular
1-hour Round Robin, Round-Table Discussion session. Take this opportunity to bring up the
most challenging questions facing your team, share your own war stories from the field
and hear and share best practices. Attend 3 timely and practical topics provided for your
professional enhancement. These sessions will add new dimensions to the services you provide
your customers, and increase your contact base in the S&OP, demand planning & forecasting
community. All experience levels are invited and welcome.
• Technology for Analytics, Forecasting, and Planning • Talent Management in Analytics, Forecasting, and Planning • Analytics, Data Management, & Improving Forecast Accuracy • New Products: Successfully Forecasting & Planning the Success of Innovation
Included With
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BECOME A CERTIFIED PROFESSIONAL FORECASTER (CPF)
Master Demand Planning, Forecasting, and S&OP with IBF Certification
GET CERTIFIED AFTER THE CONFERENCE! Please visit www.ibf.org for additional exam dates and locations.
Register on our website, www.ibf.org or call us @+1.516.504.7576 for more details.
FOR EMPLOYEES:
• Accelerate your career growth, leadership opportunities, marketability, and job security
• Validate your professional experience, knowledge, and skill-sets in the field
• Build confidence knowing that you’re prepared for today’s rapidly changing marketplace
• Complement your supply chain education & certifications with IBF
• Become more recognized at your company, as well as in the field
• Master demand planning, forecasting and S&OP
FOR EMPLOYERS:
• Save time and resources as IBF certified individuals are pre-qualified, allowing you to quickly identify the right person for a forecasting/demand planning job
• Gain assurance that an IBF Certified individual has the background to help improve forecasting performance and hit the ground running
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• Save time and resources in training — CPF or ACPF professionals already have a verified body of knowledge
Benefits of IBF Certification
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Fundamentals of D
emand Planning &
ForecastingC
ham
an L. Jain
Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting
Chaman L. JainSt. John’s University
“This is much more than another dry book about forecasting. Yes, the math is there, but it is much more than that, with over 40 years of experience and real life examples where the function is at the moment, how we got here and most importantly where we are going. Whether you are just getting into the vocation or an executive looking to take your Demand Planning to the next level, make sure to pick up this book to ensure your
organization is heading in the right direction.” —Michael Wachtel, Vice President of Demand Planning & Supply Chain, L’OREAL“The authors have captured the key issues of managing a world-class Demand Planning process. The book strips down a complex subject to its essential elements and explains them clearly and concisely. They use practical, real world examples to illustrate the concepts presented. It is a must for managers responsible for improving their organization’s Demand Planning capability or someone new to Forecasting who needs to
understand the basics of proper data selection, forecasting models, or improvement metrics.” —George Hesser, Lead Consultant – Demand Management Center of Competency, DUPONT“The authors thoroughly detail current best practices in Forecasting, Demand Planning, and Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) across all types of industries. It is an excellent educational resource for both the novice forecaster and the experienced planning professional.”
—Richard Herrin, Director of Supply Chain Management, AXIALL CORPORATION “The book is an important contribution to Forecasting and Planning literature, written by authors who have had their pulse on Business Forecasting and Planning for decades. They’ve done an excellent job in blending the body of knowledge from various sources, along with their own practical business and teaching experiences, to produce a very readable book that bridges theory with what is really going in Business
Forecasting and Planning. My kudos goes to them!” —Larry Lapide, Research Affiliate, MIT CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS “This is a ‘How to Book’ every Forecaster and Planner should have on their desk! The book has provided the
Forecasting and Planning community a well balanced view of the science and art of creating a forecast in a very conversational tone. Using real world examples, the authors explain ‘What needs to be done, Why to do it, and How to do it.’ I appreciate the authors for taking the time and effort to put down on paper a
summary of their 40+ years of insight, which includes the experience from leaders the IBF has brought together over the years. This is a beautiful work of substance, built on real world experience, and skillfully articulated that anyone in the Planning organization could benefit. Well done!” —Mark Covas, Director of Demand Planning, JOHNSON & JOHNSON“It is surprising how some senior leaders lack the needed understanding of Demand Planning & Forecasting.
They often oversimplify, are mystified, or sometimes just plain wrong in how they think about Demand Planning. This book is an excellent Demand Planning guide, from the process to techniques to metrics to data to systems; it is not just for the novice, but also for practicing professionals. Leaders will find it perfect
to educate their teams, peers, and management on critical business processes that keep the supply chain in motion. This book will be a must read for members of my team.”
—Todd Gallant, VP of Integrated Business Planning, DECKERS BRAND“I found the book to be highly comprehensive and readable, an accomplishment in the often technical subject of forecasting. I would recommend the book to any Demand Planning practitioner as a practical way of maintaining current knowledge in this rapidly changing field.” —Jay Nearnberg, Director, Global Demand & S&OP Excellence, NOVARTIS CONSUMER HEALTH“This work is a great foundational book for anyone working in the Forecasting and Demand arena. It provides loads of information in a thorough yet concise manner. Definitely a must have for your library.” —Curtis Brewer, Head of Forecasting–Environmental Science USA, BAYER CROPSCIENCE“The book provides a comprehensive review of the Fundamentals of Business Forecasting. It goes well beyond the typical analytical modeling that most forecasting books emphasize.It highlights the relevant and timely business implications of Forecasting and its importance in strategic business processes. Anyone wishing to improve their Business Forecasting results should read.” —Deborah F. Goldstein, Vice President, Industrial Demand Planning & Customer Fulfillment, McCORMICK
OFFICIAL BOOK FORIBF's CPF/ ACPFCertification Program
OFFICIAL BOOK FORIBF's CPF/ ACPFCertification
Program
IBF’S BODY OF KNOWLEDGE
$124.95 USD
EARN 10 POINTS TOWARD RE-CERTIFICATION BY ATTENDING THIS CONFERENCE!
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Become a Sponsorship Partner!Exhibit Space is Available!
What You Get:
• Area for the exhibitor’s 10’ pop up booth, 6’ skirted table and two chairs
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• 1 complimentary registration pass for a client
Exhibitor Fees: $3200 (USD)For further information:Phone: +1.516.504.7576Email: [email protected]
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INTERCONTINENTAL NEW ORLEANS444 St. Charles AvenueNew Orleans, LA 70130
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Group Name: Predictive Analytics, Forecasting & Planning Conference
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Available Top Tier Sponsorships
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KEYNOTE SPEAKERTed Hanawalt, Director, Global Long Term Forecasting and Industry Analysis | General MotorsTed Hanawalt is the Director of Global Forecasting and Market Analysis at General Motors, responsible for synthesizing market data into strategic issues and actionable opportunities. Ted’s experience at General Motors covers a variety of different functions, particularly from a product demand forecasting, product portfolio strategy, and manufacturing strategy perspective. Ted holds a B.S. in Chemical Engineering and an M.S. in Manufacturing Engineering from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, and an MBA from Pennsylvania State University.
Mark Bar, CPF, Market Quality Forecasting Manager | Honda North America, Inc.Mark Bar currently works as Market Quality Forecasting Manager at Honda North America. He is responsible for leading a team of forecasters that generate best-in-company Market Quality forecast accuracy, superior Executive Management support levels, efficient Just-In-Time Demand Supply forecast support and Honda Forecast Software development. As a veteran at Honda with 16 years’ experience, Mark has held several positions in the IT and Market Quality (MQ) fields, including MQ IT Team Leader and MQ Lead Forecaster. He also developed the Honda Benchmark Forecasting Methodology and one of the most efficient forecasting strategies in the industry, the “Octopus System”. Mark received his MBA from Franklin University in Columbus, Ohio and his PhD. in Economics from Saint Petersburg State University of Finance and Economics, Russia and a Graduate Degree in Engineering from Tyumen State Oil and Gas University, Russia. He is an IBF Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF)..
Sara Brumbaugh, Managing Principal | Ceres AnalyticsSara Brumbaugh is Managing Principal of Ceres Analytics, a consultancy specializing in applied mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Sara’s roots are in business forecasting: she’s worked with the IBF for 20 years, and is the 2015 recipient of IBF’s Lifetime Achievement Award. Sara’s work in predictive analytics began with construction of forecast drivers to predictstock returns. Her current analytic work supports genetic brain research at Harvard Medical School. Other recent work includes patent-pending algorithms to detect financial fraud, and genetic models to predict success of cancer chemotherapy. Sara holds a masters in Economics from Florida State University.
Charles Chase, CPF, Advisory Industry Consultant | SAS Institute, Inc.Mr. Chase is an author, thought leader and trusted advisor delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve consumer packaged goods companies supply chain efficiencies. Prior to that, he worked for various companies, including the Mennen Company, Johnson & Johnson, Consumer Products Inc., Reckitt Benckiser PLC, Polaroid Corporation,Coca Cola, Wyeth-Ayerst Pharmaceuticals, and Heineken USA. He has more than 20 years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, and is an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics, and supply chain management. He is the author of several books, including Next Generation Demand Management: People, Process, Analytics, and Technology and Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting. In addition, he is co-author of Bricks Matter: The Role of Supply Chains in Building Market-Driven Differentiation. He is also the second recipient of the IBF Lifetime Achievement Award.
Mary Côté, Director, Product Development | MAXIMUS Canada
Tom Dyer, President | Collaborative OutcomesTom Dyer is president of the coaching and consulting firm Collaborative Outcomes, which assists in clarifying the results that teams want to achieve, and the roles they need to assume in order to make them a reality. For 23 years, Tom has assisted teams in achieving strategic and operational goals through greater collaboration, corporate retreats, consultancy services, leadership programs and skills development. He has worked with leaders in large organizations across the globe including Sanofi, Novo Nordisk, Merck and Boehringer-Ingelheim. A psychologist by training, Tom is a practitioner of Neuro-linguistic Programming and holds a degree in Marketing and a Doctorate in Spiritual Science.
Arya Eskamani, Data Science Leader | Royal Caribbean Cruise LinesWith many years of data science experience across a variety of industries, Arya Eskamani is not only an accomplished professional but also a passionate mentor to analytics practitioners. His professional career began in 2012 as Project Man-ager for AssistRx, a healthcare technology startup. He secured the company’s first data science contract utilizing machine learning to predict patient conversion rates for one of the world’s largest biopharmaceutical manufacturers. In 2014 he joined Restaurant Services, Inc., the supply chain management cooperative for Burger King restaurants. Working his way from Senior Predictive Analyst to Data Science Manager, Arya implemented solutions to solve complex challenges related to new menu item forecasting, automated prediction algorithms and supply chain optimization. He also developed an internal data science training program for employees aspiring to expand their use of advanced analytics. Arya recently ac-cepted a Data Science position with Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines joining a team of data scientists and artificial intelligence specialists focused on delivering exceptional guest experiences. In addition to his professional vocation, Arya is also the Chief Analytics Officer of Str8 Studios, Inc., a boutique technology startup, overseeing the firm’s analytics consulting and training services. He received his Bachelors of Business Administration with a focus in Economics from the University of Central Florida and his Masters of Science in Economics with a focus in Econometrics from Florida Atlantic University.
P R E S E N T E R S
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John Fitzgerald, Vice President | Pomerol Partners John is the VP for the US at Pomerol Partners, a data and analytics consultancy. Pomerol Partners specializes in helping companies extract value from their data through the use of disruptive technologies including Qlik, Ethereum Blockchain), DataRobot, Lavastorm and more. John has worked with over 300 different companies across a wide range of industries and business functions including Sales, Operations, Marketing, HR and Supply Chain. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering from Marquette University and an MBA from Saint Louis University.
Michael Gilliland, Product Marketing Manager | SAS Institute, Inc.Michael Gilliland is author of The Business Forecasting Deal, and currently Product Marketing Manager for SAS forecasting software. He worked in consumer products forecasting for over fifteen years in the food, electronics, and apparel industries, and as a consultant. Mike holds a BA in Philosophy from Michigan State University, and Master’s degrees in Philosophy and Mathematical Sciences from Johns Hopkins University. He has published in Journal of Business Forecasting, Supply Chain Management Review, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Analytics, and APICS Magazine, and wrote a quarterly column on “Worst Practices” for Supply Chain Forecasting Digest. He was the 2017 recipient of IBF’s Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecasting & Planning Award.
Mike Guerra, Sr. Manager, Demand Planning and Customer Supply Chain | Hershey’sMike is a strategic organizational change agent and Global Supply Chain leader with experience in the automobile, aerospace, telecommunications, manufacturing and retail industries. He has a track record of helping to deliver complex transformation system projects, from scoping and planning to final delivery and stabilization. With more than 15 years of global experience in supply chain, Mike currently leads the demand planning process for Hershey’s Mexico and Central America, where key achievements include large-scale SKU rationalization. Mike is a contributor to www.demand-planning.com.
Fred Hefer, Co-Founder | Pomerol PartnersFred is the US and global CEO of Pomerol Partners, a 2013 spin-out from Deutsche Bank (London) and Qlik analytics services provider and developer of Blockchain solutions. During his tenure at DB, Fred served the Equities Prime Services division in various finance roles from analyst to controller to manager, with a specialization in Securities Lending. Before this, he spent time at Royal Bank of Scotland working in Business Analysis and Business Intelligence roles. Fred serves on the Qlik Americas Partner Advisory Council and was recently recognized as a 2017 Qlik Luminary. He holds a degree in Economics and Business Management from Stellenbosch University in South Africa.
Jonathon Karelse, Chief Strategy Officer | Factors Group of Nutritional CompaniesJonathon’s professional career has consisted of leadership roles in transportation, finance and health products, beginning in supply chain and demand planning roles and culminating in a vice president position in strategic planning and corporate development. Currently, he functions as the Chief Strategy Officer at the Factors Group of Nutritional Companies. He is a recognized thought leader in demand planning and is co-founding partner of the S&OP consultancy NorthFind Partners. Jonathon has been a long-term contributor to the IBF’s body of knowledge, with a specific focus on forecasting metrics and diagnostics and forecast value-add. He studied economics at the University of Western Ontario before moving to Vancouver to study law at the University of British Columbia. Jonathon went on to study operations and value chain
Michael Lavaglio, Director, Supply Chain Planning | DexcomMike is the Director of Supply Planning at Dexcom, a medical device manufacturer based in San Diego, whose main product is a continuous glucose monitor to help with diabetes care. He is responsible for leading the S&OP process, Master Production Scheduling, and MRP system implementation. Prior to Dexcom, Mike spent 3 years at Stone Brewing Company managing their S&OP process and leading the Supply Chain department, including the Planning, Procurement, and Warehousing functions. Other career highlights include a couple of years at a medical device start-up and 7 years at Abbott Laboratories (formally Guidant) in various Supply Chain and supplier quality functions. Mike graduated with a degree in Biochemistry from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, and holds APICS, CPSC, and Six Sigma Green Belt certifications.
Brian Lewis, Executive Vice President | Vanguard SoftwareBrian is EVP at Vanguard Software, which delivers advanced-analytic forecasting and optimization capabilities worldwide through a single, cloud platform for IBP, S&OP, Supply Chain, and Finance. Brian has more than 10 years of experience in Business Forecasting and Planning, Supply Chain Management, and advanced analytics. He previously held positions at Ford Motor Company, UPS, and Providian Financial. Brian has a Ph.D. in Operations Research and Supply Chain Analytics from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Luidi Maia, General Manager for Landing Strings Services | OneSubsea / SchlumbergerLuidi has 13 years’ experience spread across Procurement and Demand & Supply Planning. He started his career at Johnson & Johnson as a Procurement Analyst for non-stock products and services but has spent most of his career in the Oil & Gas Industry with Schlumberger. He is now General Manager for one of its subsidiaries, OneSubsea. He has worked on numerous transformational projects at Schlumberger and occupied various roles, including Head of Supply Planning for the Western hemisphere. Key successes include implementing Regional Distribution Centers and Regional Supply Planning processes and systems. Luidi holds a BSc in Electrical Engineering and an MBA from INSEAD.
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Alan L. Milliken, CPF, Sr. Manager, SC Capability Development | BASFMr. Milliken is a Senior Manager on the Supply Chain Capability Development Team at BASF, the world’s leading chemical company. Prior to accepting this global assignment, Alan was Manager of Business Process Education at BASF Corporation in North America. Before that he was Business Process Consultant at BASF, where he supported several business re-engineering projects, three major acquisitions; in addition, he received the Chairman’s GOLD award for his work on a major acquisition. Alan has been an APICS instructor since 1995. Before becoming a consultant and educator, Mr. Milliken worked at major plant sites for 22 years including assignments in Production, Logistics-SCM, Process Control, Quality Control, Operator Training, Industrial Engineering and Scheduling. He served as one of the original Subject Matter Experts (SME) that created APICS Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP) and the IBF’s Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF) programs. In 2010, he served as a SME to update both the MRP and ECO courses for the APICS CPIM program. He has been published in many magazines and several textbooks. Alan is a 2013 recipient of IBF’s Excellence in Business Forecasting & Planning award. He holds a BS Degree in Industrial Engineering from Auburn University and an MBA in management from Clemson University.
Chad Schumacher, Sr. Director, Global Analytics | Kellogg’s
Nima Shahbaz, Co-founder | Deepnify
Sylvia Starnes, CPF, Demand Collaboration Manager | Continental TireSylvia Starnes serves as the Senior Demand Collaboration Manager at Continental Tire. She holds a B.A. in Business Administration from Monlieat College and is certified in Production and Inventory Management (CPIM) and Certificated Supply Chain Profession (CSCP) by APICS, and is an IBF Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF). Sylvia has 20 years of experience with Supply Chain and CPFR.
Jon Weininger, S&OP Manager –Demand Planning | Georgia-Pacific GypsumAs S&OP Manager - Demand Planning for Georgia-Pacific Gypsum, Jon is responsible for implementing best practices in the company’s demand forecasting process. In this role, he championed the use of the statistical forecast to serve as the baseline for the company’s S&OP consensus building process and launched an initiative to track and report forecast accuracy. Prior to joining Georgia-Pacific Gypsum, Jon spent four years at Home Depot, starting in Store Operations before moving to the Supply Chain Analytics group. As part of that team, he participated in Supply Chain Sync, one of the biggest Supply Chain transformation projects ever undertaken and part of Home Depot’s $1.8 billion investment in technology. Here he learned about inventory management, forecasting, distribution center operations and end-to-end Supply Chain initiatives.
Randy Wilp, Executive Director, Global Commercial Forecasting | Merck & Co.Randy Wilp is currently Executive Director, Global Commercial Forecasting (GCF) at Merck. GCF is responsible for influencing major investment decisions, during product launch and through its remaining lifecycle. During his 30-year career Randy has held various forecasting related positions, including a stint as Director of Predictive Analytics at Bristol Myers Squibb and Director of Global Strategic Forecasting at Pharmacia. He has also run his own forecast consulting firm and lead the forecast consulting practice within a consulting company. Randy is currently on IBF’s Board of Advisors and holds three separate degrees from the University of Missouri-Saint Louis.
Eric Wilson, CPF, Director of Planning | Escalade Sports Director of Thought Leadership | Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning
Eric has exceptional abilities to align end to end processes and develop collaboration. He has a rich career track and has excelled in numerous areas of Supply Chain. He has an established record of significant improvement in developing demand forecasting & supply chain processes, improving inventory turns while maintaining service, Demand Driven end to end collaboration, Championing S&OP and its implementations. Eric’s more recent experience includes Eric Wilson working as the Director of Demand Planning at Berry Plastics, and the Director of Global Demand Planning and S&OP with Tempur Sealy International, the world’s largest premium mattress manufacturer. He is a member of the Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF) Board of Advisors, and has served as a speaker & panelist for IBF Executive Forums and conferences. Eric has also published in the IBF’s Journal of Business Forecasting and is an IBF Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF). Plus, in 2016, Eric was IBF’s Excellence in Business Forecasting & Planning Award winner.
1:30 pm – 4:30 pm HANDS-ON DATA SCIENCE & PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS WORKSHOP (IBF MEMBERS ONLY)
5:00 pm – 7:00 pm EARLY CONFERENCE REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
TUES D AY | A P R I L 24, 2018
7:00 am – 8:00 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS & REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
8:00 am – 8:15 am WELCOME & OPENING REMARKS
8:20 am – 9:15 am 1 Struggling To Be Heard in Demand Planning & Analytics: A New Framework To Present Business Intelligence & Insight For Greater InfluenceRandy Wilp, Executive Director, Global Commercial Forecasting CoE (GCF)MERCK & CO., INC. Tom Dyer, President, COLLABORATIVE OUTCOMES
2 Go Big or Go Home: Leveraging Big Data to Improve Supply Chain PerformanceAlan L. Milliken, CPFSr. Manager, SC Capability DevelopmentBASF
9:20 am – 10:15 am 3 Quantitative Insight For Qualitative Data: Revolutionary Text Analytics with PythonArya EskamaniData Science LeaderROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISE LINES
4 3 Cornerstones of Planning: Safety Stock Analytics, Consolidation and Selling to ManagementMichael LavaglioDirector, Supply Chain PlanningDEXCOM
10:15 am – 10:25 am MORNING BREAK | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
10:25 am – 11:20 am 5 New Game, New Rules: How To Win the Replenishment Game by Taming The Big Data GiantSylvia Starnes, CPF Demand Collaboration Manager CONTINENTAL TIRE
6 Understand your Business’s Heart Beat: Analyzing Your Drivers of VolatilityLuidi Maia General Manager for Landing Strings Services in North America and Caribbean ONESUBSEA / SCHLUMBERGER
11:25 am – 12:20 pm 7 How Effective Was Your Last Promotion? Using Multivariate Regression To Quantify Impact of Promotions On Sales Jonathon Karelse Chief Strategy OfficerFACTORS GROUP OF NUTRITIONAL COMPANIES
8 A View from Analytics: Transforming the Forecasting Function Chad SchumacherSr. Director, Global AnalyticsKELLOGG’S
12:20 pm– 12:50 pm LUNCH
12:50 pm– 1:30 pm
KEYNOTE PRESENTATION | A Seat at the Leadership Table: Gaining Management Buy In For Forecasting at General MotorsTed HanawaltDirector, Global Long Term Forecasting and Industry Analysis GENERAL MOTORS
1:30 pm – 2:00 pm VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
2:00 pm –2:55 pm 9 Adapting To The Biggest Ever Disruption In Demand Planning: How To Become An Analytics-Driven OrganizationCharles Chase, CPFAdvisory Industry ConsultantSAS INSTITUTE, INC.
10 New Kid On The Blockchain: Leveraging Blockchain Data With Predictive Analytics and ForecastingFred Hefer, CEOJohn Fitzgerald, Vice PresidentPOMEROL PARTNERS
3:00 pm – 3:55 pm
11 One Simple Formula, Huge Cost Savings: Using COV Analysis to Slash WMAPEMike Guerra Sr. Manager, Demand Planning and Customer Supply ChainHERSHEY’S
12 Why Chess Teaches Us A Lot About Forecasting: Deep Learning Analytics and Demand Planning Go Head To HeadVivek Sasikumar, Advisor of Demand Planning & Supply Chain StrategyNima Shahbaz, Co-founder DEEPNIFY
4:10pm – 5:10 pm ROUND ROBIN ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS
5:15 pm – 6:15 pm IBF COCKTAIL RECEPTION
WEDNES D AY | A P R I L 25, 2018
7:00 am – 8:00 am MORNING REFRESHMENTS & REGISTRATION | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
8:00 am – 8:55 am 13 The Power Of “Forecastability”: The Ability To Know How Forecastable a Product IsMary Côté, Director, Product DevelopmentMAXIMUS CANADAMichael Gilliland, Product Marketing ManagerSAS INSTITUTE, INC.
14 Time-Based Forecasting is Far From Obsolete: Mastering the Basics Of Statistical ForecastingJon WeiningerS&OP Manager - Demand PlanningGEORGIA-PACIFIC GYPSUM
9:00 am – 9:55 am 15 Honda’s Forecasting “Octopus System”: Incorporating Business Intelligence Into Predictive Analytics Mark Bar, CPF Market Quality Forecasting ManagerHONDA NORTH AMERICA, INC.
16 Don’t Fear The Unknown: Incorporating Uncertainty Into Your Forecasts and PlansBrian Lewis, Ph.D.Executive Vice President VANGUARD SOFTWARE
9:55 am – 10:05 am MID-MORNING BREAK | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS
10:05 am – 11:00 am 17 R You Ready? How to Teach Yourself the Basics of R Forecasting And BeyondSara BrumbaughManaging PrincipalCERES ANALYTICS
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11:05 am – 12:00 pm 19 Watch Out Millennials, Generation PI Is Coming: Future Of Data Science & Demand Planning Roles Eric Wilson, CPFDirector of Planning | ESCALADE SPORTSDirector of Thought Leadership | INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING
12:00 pm – 12:15 pm CLOSING REMARKS & GIVEAWAYS
CO N F E R E N C E CO N C LU D E S
To Be Announced
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