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Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

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Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus Correlation
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Page 1: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Analyze ScatterplotsCausation versus Correlation

Page 2: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

4 3 2 1 0

In addition to level 3.0 and above and beyond what was taught in class,  the student may:· Make connection with other concepts in math· Make connection with other content areas.

The student will be able to interpret linear models. - Interpret slope in context of data. - Write the line-of-best-fit for a scatter plot. - Distinguish between correlation and causation. - Use technology to calculate correlation coefficient.

The student will be able to: - Determine if a scatter plot has positive or negative correlation and if the correlation is weak or strong. - Use the correlation coefficient to interpret the strength of a correlation.

With help from theteacher, the student haspartial success interpreting linear models or scatter plots.

Even with help, the student has no success understanding the concept of a linear models.

Learning Goal #2 for Focus 4 (HS.S-ID.C.7, 8 & 9, HS.S-ID.B.6, HS.F-IF.B.6):

The student will be able to interpret linear models.

Page 3: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Scatterplots…

• Scatterplots show the relationship between two sets of data.• The correlation coefficient tells the strength of the relationship.• Correlation just means there is a relationship.• Causation means that one set of data CAUSED the other to happen.• In today’s lesson, you will determine if the scatterplot or

set of data is correlated and if one set of data caused the other to happen.

Page 4: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Correlation tells us how closely two sets of information or data are related.

• For example: Look at the US highway fatality rate and care it to the metric tons of fresh lemons imported from Mexico.• We can see that this set of data

has a strong correlation with an r-value of 0.97.• However, does the importing of

lemons CAUSE traffic fatalities in the United States?

Page 5: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Is it Causation or Correlation?

1. A recent study showed that college students were more likely to vote than their peers who where not in school.

2. Principal Verrill noticed that there was more trash in the hallways after 2nd period than 1st period.

3. You hit your little sister and she cried.Causation

Correlation

Correlation

Page 6: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Causation: The act or process of causing; the act or agency which produces an effect.

• A Causal Relationship between two things exists if one occurs because of the other.• For example: If you work less hours, you will earn less money.

• In many cases, the direction of the cause and effect matters.• For example: If you earn less money, doesn’t necessarily mean

you worked less hours. It could mean that the job pays less.• Another example: If you are obese, you will have diabetes.• However, the reverse isn’t necessarily true. If you have

diabetes, you will be obese.

Page 7: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Proving causation is a major challenge.

• There are no set rules or criteria for saying that a correlation is causation.

• The more robust the correlation, the more LIKELY they are to imply causation.

• For example: smoking and cancer.• Enough research has been conducted and the correlation between

cancer and smoking is strong enough to be considered a causal relationship.

• This means smoking causes cancer.• (The reverse isn’t true: cancer leads to smoking.)

Page 8: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Does this data show causation?

• Is the divorce rate in Maine really caused by how much margarine is consumed?

Graph from: http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-correlation-isnt-causation#1

Page 9: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Does this data show causation?

• Are the number of people who drowned by falling into a swimming pool caused by the number of Nicolas Cage films that were made?

Graph from: http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-correlation-isnt-causation#1

Page 10: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Does this data show causation?

• Does consumption of mozzarella cheese cause more people to earn civil engineering doctorate degrees?

Graph from: http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-correlation-isnt-causation#1

Page 11: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Does this data show causation?

• Is the number of people who die by being tangled in their bed sheets caused by how much revenue was generated by skiing facilities?

Graph from: http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-correlation-isnt-causation#1

Page 12: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Causation or Correlation

• The manager of a toy store hires one new worker, Stacy, in December.

• After Stacy is hired, the store’s sales shoot up by 300%.

• “Wow!” the manager says to himself. “That Stacy is a fantastic sales worker! I haven’t hired anyone else but Stacy. Still, since I hired her, our sales have tripled! I’d better give her raise!”

• Is the manager’s conclusion logical?Why or why not?

Image from Iclipart.

Page 13: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Newspaper Headlines

• Many newspapers have headlines that make the reader BELIEVE that the relationship is based on causation.

• Check out these titles:• Lack of sleep may shrink your brain• Early language skills reduce preschool tantrums, study finds• Dogs walked by men are more aggressive• Straight A's in high school may mean better health later in

life• Eating brown rice to cut diabetes risk• Deep voiced men "have more kids“• Eat sweets, live longer

Image from Iclipart.

Page 14: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.
Page 15: Analyze Scatterplots Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation.

Remember, correlation does mean causation.


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