Analyzing Bayesian Networks with GENIE

Anchors:

Renu Rao

Kaveh Saba

GENIE• Genie stands for Graphical Network

Interface

• Used to graphically represent probability results

• Can predict probability of an outcome and the results of related variables

• Advantage: Enables analysis of noisy data and uncertain variables

Download and Installation

Website: http://genie.sis.pitt.edu/

Click ‘Download’ – Shown in red

Click ‘Register’ after entering user information

Select Genie 2.0 to initiate download

Specifics• Node: a factor that has a pre-determined

probability• Identifier: A valid variable name in the

programming language• Node name: Enter what the node actually

represents • Entering a probability: Each node has

ansuccess and failure probability which must add to 1 and they can be entered by clicking ‘Add’ under node properties.

Michigan’s Next Football Coach• We can use GENIE to determine the probability

that Les Miles will be next head coach at Michigan

• Known probabilities:– 40% Les Miles coaches Michigan next season– If he coaches UofM, then 20% chance that LSU won

the BCS national title– If LSU wins national title, then 85% chance that OSU

sucks• We Know that OSU SUCKS, what is probability that Les

Miles becomes coach of Wolverines next season?

Set Up Model with GENIE1. Open Program

2. Set up node for Les Miles decision

Use this icon to set up Node

Set Up Model with GENIE3. Double-click on node

4. Specifier Identifier and Name as

Use this icon to set up Node

Set Up Model with GENIE5. On definition tab, specify probabilities

Set Up Model with GENIE6. Set up Nodes for other factors

Set Up Model with GENIE7. Specify Identifier, Name, and

Probabilities for each Node

Set Up Model with GENIE8. Example: Probability LSU wins BCS

20% Chance LSU won BCS if Les Miles UofM Coach

Set Up Model with GENIE9. Connect the Nodes

Use this icon to connect the Nodes

Determine Probability10. Set Evidence for Last Node

We Know that OSU SUCKS!

Determine Probability11. Double-Click on Les Miles Node, click

on ‘Value’ tab

Conclusions• 21.4% chance that Les Miles coach at UofM,

knowing that OSU sucks• After his press conference on Saturday,

percentage looks closer to 0• Bring on Jeff Tedford

Thank you for your time