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Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels

Tyler Svitak

Clean Cities Manager

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1. Clean Cities, Refuel Colorado Fleets

2. Alternative Fuel Benefits

3. Lifecycle Cost Factors– Electric– CNG/LPG

4. Fleet Analysis Example– Variable Fleet– Homogenous Fleet

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

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Lower lifecycle cost

Energy independence, stability

Cleaner burning

2. ALTERNATIVE FUEL INFLUENCES

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Alternative Fuel Benefits

Lower Lifecycle CostROI Opportunities

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LIFECYCLE COSTS

Life cycle cost comparison factors:

• Unit price

• Delivery, shipping, transportation

• Fuel (increasing over time)

• Routine maintenance

• Cost of money over time (net present value)

• Resale value

Price tag is just 1

factor

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• Higher incremental price tag

• Gain ROI through fuel cost reduction– CNG $2.12/gge, LPG $2.56/gge, Electricity $1.14/eGallon

• Fast ROI:– High VMT– High fuel consumption– Home base fueling

Lifecycle Costs

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Class 1: 0-6,000 lbs Plug-in Hybrid or ElectricPassenger Vehicles

-Gallons per year are low, so savings is low for CNG, LPG, etc.

Classes 2 +3: 6,000-14,000 lbs CNG or LPG, bi-fuelPickup trucks & work vans

-No plug-in options in this class-Bi-fuel CNG or LPG options available-Good payback if annual VMT is high

Classes 4-6: 14,001-26,000 lbs CNG or LPG Medium duty trucksSchool and shuttle buses

ElectricMedium duty truck/van

-Good payback if annual VMT is high-Vehicle can be designed for tanks-CNG or LPG medium duty engines exist

-Good if fleet VMT matches driving range-Low fuel/maint costs; fast charging options

Class 7: 26,001-33,000 lbs CNG Short haul trucks, Refuse trucks, Transit buses

-Natural gas heavy duty engines exist-Good payback if annual VMT is high-Vehicle design can fit CNG tanks

Class 8: >33,000 lbs CNG/LNG Long-haul trucks

-Fuel usage too high for CNG-Natural gas heavy duty engines exist-LNG required due to high fuel usage

NO SILVER BULLETAlt Fuels most likely to succeed in each vehicle class:

f

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FUEL PRICE VOLATILITY

DieselRetail price $4.43/GGE

(early 2008)

Distribution and Marketing

26%

42%

9%6%18%

Natural Gas

OperationsMaintenanceAmortization

PipelineElectricity

Taxes

ElectricityRetail price $1.14/eGallon

25%

30%

30%

15%

Fuel Costs

Capital Costs

Transmission and Delivery

Taxes

COSTPER GAL$5.00

$4.00

$3.00

$2.00

$1.00

$0.00

64%

21%

5%

10%

Crude OIl

Taxes

Refining Distribution and Marketing

GasolineRetail price $3.77/GGE

(early 2008)

75%

10%

5%

10%

Crude OIl

Taxes

Refining

CNGRetail price $2.10/GGE

(early 2008)

Source: US DoE EERE, EIA, and NGVA

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Fuel Prices

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• OK, Alt fuels MAY be cheaper… – How much cheaper?– When will I see an ROI?– What is my initial capital cost?

Analysis

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• Comparing Conventional Replacement with Alternative• Operating Costs Only• Lifecycle Analysis isn’t Exact

Lifecycle Cost Factors

Differences Constants

Fuel Economy Annual Mileage

Fuel Consumption Replacement Cycle?

Fuel Type and Price Maintenance Costs?

Fuel Price Over Time?

Vehicle Cost

Incentives, Grants

Maintenance Costs?

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• Simple analysis– Groups of similar vehicles– Consistent duty cycles, operations

• Trucking operations, HVAC, aggregate, refuse

– 2 EXAMPLE

• Comprehensive fleet analysis– Variable fleets with multiple duty-cycles– Long term planning

• Large government, corporate fleets

– EXAMPLE

Analysis Detail

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Simple Analysis - AFDC

• http://www.afdc.energy.gov/tools/• http://www.afdc.energy.gov/calc/

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Simple Analysis - Excel

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Comprehensive Analysis - Excel

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• Vehicle Availability– OEM vs. Conversion

• Daily Range vs. Vehicle Range• Infrastructure Location vs. Vehicle Location• Space/tank limitations• Performance is NOT an issue

Limiting Factors

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• Analysis doesn’t cover:– Infrastructure Cost– Vehicle Service– Maintenance Bay Upgrades

• Operating savings will determine justification

Considerations

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• Products are proven• ROI opportunities can be found within most fleets• The problem is only going to get worse

– Rising fuel prices– Volatile fuel budgets

• It’s a process – but a process worth making… so, PLAN NOW!!

Conclusion

Mike Ogburn CleanEnergyEconomy.net

Maria Eisemann NorthernColoradoCleanCities.org

Tyler Svitak DenverCleanCities.org