Analyzing Pennsylvania’s Employment Picture

Scott Meckley

Center for Workforce Information & Analysis

Objectives

• To discuss two different measures of employment produced by CWIA:– Current Employment Statistics (CES)– Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

• What does this data measure?• How is this data alike? How is it different?• Where/when can this data be found?• How is this data used?• Who do I contact with questions about this data?

Nonfarm Jobs Data (CES)

• Current Employment Statistics (CES) is a monthly payroll survey of non-farm establishments used to estimate jobs

• Also referred to as “non-farm jobs” due to the fact that agricultural establishments are not counted

• Counts the number of JOBS (not workers)

• Bases count on LOCATION OF JOB (not residence of worker)

Nonfarm Jobs Data (CES)

• Monthly non-farm jobs estimates are produced for different areas:– United States (produced by Bureau of Labor

Statistics)– States (PA data produced by BLS/CWIA)– Metropolitan Statistical Areas (14 in PA, produced

by BLS/CWIA)

• CWIA also produces job estimates for the 37 PA counties not in MSAs**source: UI claims based model

Nonfarm Jobs Data (CES)

• Monthly non-farm jobs estimates are produced for different industry detail:– Total Non-farm Jobs– Goods-producing and Service-providing totals– Sectors (manufacturing, retail trade, etc.)– Subsector detail for some industries

• Seasonal Adjustment – allows for comparison of different months– Statewide seasonally adjusted at sector level– MSAs seasonally adjusted for Total non-farm only

February Jobs (CES), Altoona MSA

Industry Employment Net Change From:ESTABLISHMENT DATA Feb 2011 Jan 2011 Dec 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2010

TOTAL NONFARM 59,300 59,400 60,900 58,200 -100 1,100TOTAL PRIVATE 50,700 50,900 52,200 49,300 -200 1,400GOODS-PRODUCING 9,900 9,900 10,100 9,300 0 600Manufacturing 7,400 7,400 7,500 7,200 0 200

SERVICE-PROVIDING 49,400 49,500 50,800 48,900 -100 500PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING 40,800 41,000 42,100 40,000 -200 800Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 14,500 14,700 15,300 14,100 -200 400 Wholesale Trade 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,400 0 100 Retail Trade 8,200 8,400 8,800 8,200 -200 0Professional and Business Services 4,800 4,800 4,900 4,700 0 100Education and Health Services 11,400 11,300 11,400 11,000 100 400Leisure and Hospitality 5,200 5,200 5,300 5,000 0 200Government 8,600 8,500 8,700 8,900 100 -300 Federal Government 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,100 0 -100 State Government 2,400 2,300 2,500 2,500 100 -100 Local Government 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,300 0 -100

Data benchmarked to March 2010 ***Data changes of 100 may be due to rounding***

TABLE 2

ALTOONA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA

(Blair County)

February 2011NONFARM JOBS

February Seasonally Adjusted Jobs (CES)

Industry Employment Net Change From:AREA Feb 2011 Jan 2011 Dec 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2010

PENNSYLVANIA 5,674,100 5,650,400 5,639,900 5,567,300 23,700 106,800

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton MSA 334,100 332,900 334,400 332,300 1,200 1,800Altoona MSA 60,500 60,400 60,500 59,600 100 900Erie MSA 128,800 128,500 128,800 125,000 300 3,800Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA 318,300 318,000 318,300 317,100 300 1,200Johnstown MSA 61,100 60,800 60,200 59,500 300 1,600Lancaster MSA 227,100 226,600 227,200 225,700 500 1,400Lebanon MSA 49,900 50,000 50,300 48,900 -100 1,000Philadelphia Metropolitan Division 1,871,900 1,869,600 1,863,500 1,848,100 2,300 23,800Philadelphia MSA 2,702,500 2,701,500 2,698,400 2,679,300 1,000 23,200Pittsburgh MSA 1,134,000 1,132,300 1,129,700 1,110,700 1,700 23,300Reading MSA 168,000 167,100 167,300 165,600 900 2,400Scranton-Wilkes-Barre MSA 253,900 253,100 253,800 251,800 800 2,100State College MSA 74,600 74,100 73,600 74,000 500 600Williamsport MSA 52,700 52,500 52,400 51,800 200 900York-Hanover MSA 175,500 174,800 176,000 171,000 700 4,500Philadelphia City 662,600 659,800 659,500 649,800 2,800 12,800

Data benchmarked to March 2010 ***Data changes of 100 may be due to rounding***

February 2011

TABLE 2A

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL NONFARM JOBS

FOR PENNSYLVANIA, MSAs and Select Areas

Civilian Labor Force Data (LAUS)

• Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program estimates the number of persons working or available for work in a given area

• Consists of four primary measures – Civilian Labor Force– Employment– Unemployment– Unemployment Rate

• Employment a count of PERSONS (not jobs)

• Data based on where people LIVE (not where they work)

Civilian Labor Force Data (LAUS)

• Definitions of labor force components:

– Employment – count of persons 16+ who were working

– Unemployment – count of persons 16+ who were not working, while meeting each of the following criteria:

• Want to work• Available to work• Actively searching for work

– Civilian Labor Force – count of available workers (employed plus unemployed)

– Unemployment Rate – number of unemployed divided by number of available workers (labor force)

Civilian Labor Force Data (LAUS)

• Monthly civilian labor force estimates are produced for different areas:– United States– States– Metropolitan Statistical Areas– Counties– Selected Minor Civil Divisions (cities, townships, boroughs)– Workforce Investment Areas– Other groupings (Combined MSAs, Metro Divisions)

• Seasonal Adjustment done for all data elements– all areas seasonally adjusted except for Minor Civil

Divisions

February Labor Force Stats (LAUS) Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA

CIVILIANLABOR EMPLOY- UNEMPLOY- RATE LABOR EMPLOY- UNEMPLOY- RATEFORCE MENT 2/ MENT (%) 3/ FORCE MENT 2/ MENT (%) 3/

February 2011 278,000 256,600 21,300 7.7 282,100 262,100 20,100 7.1January 278,900 257,300 21,600 7.7 282,100 261,800 20,300 7.2December 2010 278,200 257,900 20,200 7.3 280,400 258,800 21,500 7.7February 2010 278,600 254,900 23,700 8.5 282,700 260,300 22,500 7.9

CIVILIANLABOR EMPLOY- UNEMPLOY- RATE LABOR EMPLOY- UNEMPLOY- RATEFORCE MENT 2/ MENT (%) 3/ FORCE MENT 2/ MENT (%) 3/

Allentow n-Beth.-East. PA-NJ MSA 416,200 377,000 39,300 9.4 419,600 383,200 36,400 8.7 Altoona MSA 63,800 59,000 4,800 7.6 64,700 60,400 4,300 6.6 Erie MSA 138,600 126,300 12,200 8.8 139,800 128,700 11,100 7.9 Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA 278,000 256,600 21,300 7.7 282,100 262,100 20,100 7.1 Johnstow n MSA 69,000 62,700 6,300 9.2 69,300 63,500 5,800 8.4 Lancaster MSA 264,700 245,200 19,500 7.4 269,500 251,300 18,200 6.8 Lebanon MSA 72,500 67,400 5,100 7.0 73,400 68,800 4,600 6.3 Philadelphia MSA 2,941,900 2,678,500 263,300 9.0 2,954,300 2,703,300 251,000 8.5 Pittsburgh MSA 1,204,900 1,109,900 95,100 7.9 1,218,900 1,133,800 85,100 7.0 Reading MSA 202,500 184,600 17,900 8.8 203,800 187,300 16,400 8.1 Scranton-Wilkes-Barre MSA 279,400 251,800 27,600 9.9 281,600 256,200 25,400 9.0 State College MSA 75,500 71,200 4,300 5.7 75,700 71,700 4,000 5.3 Williamsport MSA 59,700 54,600 5,200 8.6 59,800 55,300 4,400 7.4 York-Hanover MSA 222,200 203,800 18,500 8.3 224,300 207,400 17,000 7.6

PENNSYLVANIA 6,312,000 5,777,000 534,000 8.5 6,362,000 5,851,000 511,000 8.0

UNITED STATES 152,635,000 138,093,000 14,542,000 9.5 153,246,000 139,573,000 13,673,000 8.9

TABLE 1

HARRISBURG-CARLISLE METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA(Cumberland, Dauphin and Perry Counties)

TOTAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATEBY PLACE OF RESIDENCE 1/

SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDTIME PERIOD

LAUS vs. CES Employment

LAUS Employment• By place of residence

• Count of persons

• Calendar week of the 12th

• Includes unpaid absences

• No industry data

CES Employment• By place of work

• Count of jobs

• Pay period including the 12th

• Excludes unpaid absences

• Detailed industry data

Both are released by PA on the same date

Uses for LAUS and CES data

• Considered a barometer of the overall economy

• Used in production of other statistical data (CES is an input for LAUS estimates)

• Used at federal, state, and local levels for planning and budgeting

• Indicate need for local employment and training

• Used by employers to make business decisions

• Used by job seekers, students for career decisions

PA LAUS and CES Release Dates

8:30 AMReference

Month US Data BriefingPA Data

(Gov-Release)

PA Data (CWIA-Release) Area Data

December '10 1/7/2010 1/21/2011 1/20/2011 1/21/2011 2/1/2011

January 2/4/2011 3/4/2011 3/3/2011 3/4/2011 3/15/2011

February 3/4/2011 3/18/2011 3/17/2011 3/18/2011 4/5/2011

March 4/1/2011 4/15/2011 4/14/2011 4/15/2011 4/26/2011

April 5/6/2011 5/20/2011 5/19/2011 5/20/2011 6/1/2011

May 6/3/2011 6/17/2011 6/16/2011 6/17/2011 6/28/2011

June 7/8/2011 7/22/2011 7/21/2011 7/22/2011 8/2/2011

July 8/5/2011 8/19/2011 8/18/2011 8/19/2011 8/30/2011

August 9/2/2011 9/16/2011 9/15/2011 9/16/2011 9/27/2011

September 10/7/2011 10/21/2011 10/20/2011 10/21/2011 11/1/2011

October 11/4/2011 11/18/2011 11/17/2011 11/18/2011 12/1/2011

November 12/2/2011 12/16/2011 12/15/2011 12/16/2011 12/28/2011

December 1/6/2012 1/20/2012 1/19/2012 1/20/2012 1/31/2012

2011 Schedule for Release of Nonfarm Jobs and Civilian Labor Force Data For U.S., Pennsylvania and Areas

Accessing Electronic Press Releases

• Portal Monthly News Releases:http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/monthly_news_releases/18850

• CWIA Website:http://www.paworkstats.state.pa.us/

Area Press Release Email

To all media members, Updated press releases, containing area labor force and nonfarm jobs data, are now

available on the Department of Labor & Industry's Web site. The press releases can be accessed by following the instructions below:

 1.      Click on

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/monthly_news_releases/18850 to open the CWIA Monthly News Releases page on the Labor & Industry Web site.

2.      At the bottom of the Monthly News Releases' left navigation bar, click on the "Log In" link.

3.      Log into the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania's Enterprise Portal using the user ID and password that you registered on the Labor & Industry Portal Web site.

 This will grant you early access to the embargoed data, appearing immediately above last

month's public data. If you experience any login problems, please contact us via e-mail at

workforceinfo@state.pa.us or by calling 1-877-4WF-DATA.

Contact Information

• Scott Meckley, Employment & Industry Manager– smeckley@state.pa.us– (717) 346-9389

• Lauren Nimal, Employment & Industry Supervisor– lnimal@state.pa.us– (717) 772-1374