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THE
py � g hg
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First Publshed in
By Istitte for Security and Defense Analysis Th. Sofouli tr.- Neo PsychicoAthes, Greece
© Antoia Dmou
ll rights reserved No part of his monograph may be reprinedor reproduced or utiized in any form or by any electronic mechaicalor other meas, now known or hereaer invented, includigphotocopyng and recordi or in any ifoımation storage orretrieal system, without permssion in writing from thepubisher.
fA Caalogue Record of hs monograph is available om the National Library ofGreece
IBN (Prnt Edition)IBN Master ebook)
Cer Deiaie wrk; haphi Prjein Syra der heCreae Cms Ariun-Share Ake 3. n-ped liense
Ar Superisr: Elena anu - mi
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"v v ,
kw
v k
:
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w
38- 3 C
• e igin fing e le nch s syl fpecel in e culue fAncien Geece
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KWMTS
Tis mngrap wuld nt ave een realzed witut te supprt f istittis
and peple w made te present mptin a magient experiene Fst
and fremst, I wuld like t express my gatitude t Dr. Musa Steiw� Detr
f te Center fr Strate Sties at te University f Jrdan w need te
mngrap's teme and ered invaluale guidane. I wuld als
wleeartedly like t express my mst sinere thlness t te bard f te
Istitte fr Seurity and Defese nalysis ased n Ates fr emraig
puliatin
I igly indeted t tse w ffered tme and made a series f nduted
nterviews pssible sarig wit me teir deep knwledge and nsigs fr te
riss in Syria and eynd Speally I wuld like t gratelly aknwledge te
nstrute disussins I ad wit tw frmer rme Mnsters and tw frmer
Fren Miisters f te Hasemite Kigdm f Jrdan w ws t mantain
te annymity. I make my takl and respetl rein f ea ne f
ter Exellenies entusiasti sarig f ists and expertse emanatng m
te vast experiene in puli fe ver te yeas.
My mst sinere taks als g t Dr. Adnan Au Ode lial Advisr t te
ate Kng Hussein frmer Senatr and frmer Cief f te Ryal Curt n Jrdan,
and urrenly, memer f te Bard f te Internatinal Criss Grup w sared
nsigs knwledge and years f experiene in puli e; admiedly, e was
truly atalyti n erig erus tips tat ulmnated in te mpletin f tis
mnap.
Additinally, I elden t Dr. Orai Rantawi, Diretr f te alQuds Center
fr Strategi Sdies fr is dstigused ntriutin wit teretial
measurements and a series f stimulatng disussis tat elped put my
tugs dwn in a ntex. Cnurrently, wuld like t express my atelness
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to Dr. Ruhel Gharaibe, leadig poitician of he Jordaan Musim Brotherhood
who made the writng of hs monograph a sately research helpng me
understand the Islamic movement's poitical princples n Jordan and the region
My most snere thaks also go to Mr Ausama Monajed advisor to he Secreary
General of the Syrian Naional Council and Executive Director of the London-
ased Straegic Research and Communication Centre who very promply
contributed o the beter polical understandig of the coaliion of Syrian
oppositon groups based abroad. Concurrently would lke to record a special
noe of thaks to a leadig polician of the Jord Baath party who wshes o
maintan is anonymity and who not only shared opions but most impoıantly
consented to formaon beng pubished in monograph
My graeness is also exended to r John omkos Drector of the Research
Istite for European and merican Studies based n Athes for revewng the
ornal manuscript and for writig the monograph's prologe For comments on
pars of he original manuscript I would e to hak Dr Majed Qatarneh of the
Center for Straegic Studies ast bu not least I ake ense pleasure n
thankng assistan researcher Ruba Mohaıed Tweissi for her assistance n
organzig my eld work wile in Jordan and the authoriy of the Center for
Stratec Studies tha provided the faciities to conduct the present monograph
Undoubedly hs monoaph would no hae been completed without the
contribution of the abovementioned individuals who allowed me to present some
of ther views on a contemporary issue that could potentially change the
traditional currens of the wider Middle East.
tonia Dimou
Augst Athes
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One of he otoes that the reader an oserve o Ms Dio's n-depth
researh onoaph is that any in the San opposion onr no hat
Bashar Al-Assad's ree is stronger than they had ianed Moreover e
West nees to take ore seriosly the Rus sian ones on hat happens if
and aer Bashar Al-Assad fails.
Single events are not preitale, t eir onseqenes oen are
Dr Jo M Nikos
Dretor
Resear Institte for European and
Aerian Sties IEAS)
Athens, Greee
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TRT
The massive wave of protests throot the Mide East n spring 2011 set
o the wind of political and econoic reforms, nd has engulfed most of the
states of orh ca and the Mide East with spreaing effects nto Syria.
Sya has been motivated by the momentos events in Tunisia and Egypt
which nspred protests on its soil demaning economic and poical reforms
and lsating the potentia of genune democracy, or more acurately
demoratizaon om hin.
However, e Syrian remes vioent response on protestrs prompted themto reject the Syrian govement s ial enact of reforms most pronently
the ling of the state of emergency in eet for nerly y years he
inodcon of a new mea law, and the anting of cizensp to stateless
Kurds. Most mportantly state vioence prompted protests to evolve nto
isurgeny Speically, in tle case of Syria as iolence esalated insurgent
tactics eventally replaced protest taccs ng into an asynme warfare
aganst e S state. e sitaon stands nowadays, e death to isstaggering d e deson is reang catasopc proporions n the
Arab coun
Therefore e development of a oaon of the able" for Sa to nclde the
US the EU Rssia d certain Arab ountries to develop a omprehensive
sate and a set of aons to end the riss in Sa is more relevant th
ever before. The sate could inclde coorated iplma efforts to
implement a reconciliaon process, d insure a smooth polial ansition so
tlat proacted onict is ended.
In tlis potial tiing contex the ent monoaph focses on he rst
ten mons of the risis in Sya March 2011 tll December 2011. Beng
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written in e region as te Syrian risis sparked, ared and spread, ths
onoap akes no pretence about proviig answers to coıplex issues
adressed tus aiing to increase understanding trog a series of
conducted interviews wi ocials inteaonal relatios expers om e
reon Baatist and Islaic gres as well as Syrian oppositioists.
s evidenced dng te conduct of researc e debate on Syria reects te
deepeng ivisios between two caps; te st cap supports opposition to
te Syrian regie d te second wises for te aintence of te current
q in fear of ire reona repercussions. Tis kind of debate is
reected in e evolution of e US policy -- Syria of te last ree
decades Te Reag Aistration dened erican policy towards Sa
troug e ps of Cold War realis and even toug e Ara b cony was
inuded in te ist of state-sponsrs of teosm since 1979 it was considered
geopolitically imporant and engagement between te two cones
orised.1 In te post-Cold War aework, e George H Bs
sation considered Sya a k ey pillar for e cemenng of te reona
balance of power d sougt for e engagement of Damascus in te US-led
aliance against Ira in te Glf War of 1991991. Later on, te Cinton
isation considered Sa as major component of any Middle East
peace negoatios and a series of presidenal sumits took place wit e
last one in Geneva in Marc between ten ecan President Bil
Clinton and te ate Sy President Hafez al-Assad.2 For its part te George
W Bus saon ialy eployed neocoservave tools tat
suppored approac to Syria troug isolaon but geopoical reaities led to
te prevalence of raional pracce; Sya's cooperaon in te
Hl Flether Stte Sn: Si" Cunil n Fre Reltn Fer 28;Als effre Field, Adesies nd Sec : &linng US Feign Pli dRgue Stes P diertn ierit f Suthe Cf 2. ne Perlez In Gene, Clintn Bet Tht A d Wuld Ben d n L" e New YkTies h 28, 2
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the Syrin leadership ade sure that it et with eic Presidents o
Nixon to Clinton. Prllely, wle Israel ocupies the Gol Heights for the
last fory yers no atack against the State of Israel has taken place o
Sy tertory
Undoubtely the ajor weesses of the Syn regie have been the
systeic corrupon that created powerl etes nd the slow pace of politicl
refos that were oly inor nd coseti. These weaknesses have presented
the keystone of the poplr protests with dends for deorazaon The
prsue by the Syrin ree of a dual strate responding volently aginst
protests on the one hnd and nting ediation roles on the other hnd is
considered as effor to resolve conicting interests while concently
exploing fers nd hopes.
This onoaph continues with n acot of the ab League the EU nd
the US snctions agnst Sya raising uesons on their ltiate efcieny.
Econoc sctions as a publi policy tool is lyzed sessng the
litaons as accorng to lessons leat in conteporary polics, the
eater nuber of ones needed to ipleent the deil easures the
less likely snons will be eeve In tlis espet it is exained how
vigorously Iraq, Syrias lrgest ab ang prner wch did not vote n
support of the ab League sancons, would ipleent the easres.
Silarly Lebnon with ts coplex econoic es wi Syria reglrly
desbed as one lrge pool" in wlich labor cooes nd oney ows
nipeded ves rise to worries on the aıicatios at sancos ay have
on its own eonoy nd on its ablity to ultiately enfore the set of pve
4 Huer, effre Schot imerl liot nd Brr Oe, EcnicSnins Recndered 3d etion) Petero Intitute fo nterntonl Eonoic27 . 89
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measres. A detiled acont is lso made to Irn wih represents Sa's
songest eonoi ifeine rnging om ener to osuction preing
that the treat wich snons pose on the Syrin economy ill exa
preipitate the power balning satees of Irn nd Syria.
In its course, the monoaph looks into Turkey d its cenl role towrds
Sya ou e employment of its ideologil foreign poliy elements� neo
ottomaism nd the zero problemsjconits. Since Trkey denes its forei
policy n maemal terms e results of at poiy re mesured n e
same terms, reacing the emprcl relizaon that ara has not been able
to successlly apply the "zero problemsjconicts policy not oly to
neibong countries, but most imporntly to its own Southeast with the
promoon of the Nationl Uy proect. It is no seret tl1at Turkey envisioned
to patron e Arab spng rou he exploitation of neo-otomism n
ideology that soiies its spirations to re-engage esged neighbors d to
serve as meiator in conts in the Midle East nd elsewhere. In prsit of
its staning as a leaing uslim country that deterines the reonal
currents Trkey deided to uiquely posion itself in the ase of Syria.
Akra s regionl moives of e folding policy vs-a-vis Sya are identied
as intentions to outweigh Irnian regionl nuence nd as coitment to
consolidate reon doıinance Concrrently, a detiled accont is provided
regrds to Trkeys eors to inteaonize e sis in Sya by
hostng a series of opposion meengs nd being insentl in tl1e
formaon of the S ation Conil wle a likage is made wih regars
to Trkeys domesc agenda nd its relevnce to Sya Evidently Trkey is
made vlnerable by nstabiity, therefore, its foreign policy sategies can not
remn static nd are mostly riven by he need to provide nuned resposes
to undergoing developments in he reon.
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In th prcss h naph fcuss n th Hashi ngd f Jrdn
whs psin as a bidg btwn th Ln d h Prsin Gulf has
pridd it a iqu gplicl staning n th Midl East in a way tha
nwadays Aan is td wi a siicn iplmatic nd hitrin
rl with rgrds situan in Syria In fac, Sya rprsns a nd f
lius ts fr Jrdan wich thru th risis has adpd th plicy f
ac nutrlity that is idd in tw parts. Th rst prt is a prac ffrt
t prnt th utbr f wr in th rn with xrcis f iplmatic
iscs t cnt a nid Arab psitin in h Arab Lagu cntx nd
bynd. Th scnd prt is h atpt f J rdn t itslf int a saf
han fr rs nd a scn fr plitcl stlnt, ths iniizing frs
that sis ay ndin th ngd's plicl sabliy nd xa
wn its lrady batd cny. A prsntan f th intrlid
Jrd-Sa cnic rlans is prdd wih n y n h fasibility f
tl1 Arab Lagu sncns aginst Sya nd prssily nga ipact
f sncns n th Kingdm' s cny rl
Out f th trbulnt nts in Syria J rdn t practicl stps t lash a
pliticl rfrm prcss t sngn pilrs f dcracy nd dn public
prticpatin in dcisin ing It has bc cstl clr a tl1 ar
iffrnan f tl1 Jrdi nts m hs n Syria nd th rs in th
Arab wrld is tl1at prtsrs r asing fr rf f th cnt systm no
its ablin. Jrdn has n iprn rcrd n frm nias which wr
dlayd du ar rginl nts. Ntably in pr-Ira wr prid, th
ngd iitiad h Jordn Firs-A rd Awln capign which
attpd t clat a cprhnsi isin f cnc d plicl
rfrs. Th na pridd fratin f a nanl cmit t d
i dint cnic nd picl issus nd dbatd isnc tl1s
nly tl1 pssiblity f sablisng a cnsiunl cr; th inducn
f a prliantry quta fr wmn th nactnt f nti-cpn
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mesres� te ring of new politicl pres lw wt te aim of enng te
stte of gmenton mong political pares; and te seting of rules to
cover reltons between civil society professional orgatios nd te stte.
Eualy sigcant reform iititive ws te 2005 Jordai Nona Agend
blueprnt for polical economic and socia reforms t envisioned
pprocing te reform process n olisc rter t piecemeal wy.
Te comtee of te onal Agend consisted of representtives om
politicl pres incung te Muslim Broterood te parliment civl
society women cvists e me e govement nd e pvte sectors
and reced recommendtios in ee nterdependent ares nmely te
econoc d social policies bsic rigts and eedoms d stte
isuctre. In e eld of potcal reforms te Nona Agend proposed
new lws to open up elecons d prevent scrintion gainst women In
Jly 2006 te goveent of ten Prime Miister Mruf Bkit ssembled
forum of 700 parcipants over two-dy period to dress te policl
econoc and socil cllenges fcig te Kingdom Cpitaling on te
nngs of e onal Agend paricipants produced e We Are A
Jodn Kun Urdun document. Te document ws clear tempt t
politicl reform d selected list of een poies. Te mjor tree were
loyaly d nonalism sovereignty of e stte d e protecon of nona
interests and nonal security Te Bakit govement ndoubtedly sowed
siicant leslve iitiive Speciclly in November 2006 it pssed n
anti-corrupon lw tt estblised anti-corrupon comitee wi brod
powers Te lw notbly included in its detion of corruption ctions
relted to neposm wst
Antoia Diou Sing of Refors for the Hasheite igdo o Jordan"Wrlress (Ns nd VisArund e Wrd), June
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Coming to today's situaon, the monoaph desbes Jordns speedy nd
praccl steps to eash a deep politica reform proess which ims to reect
the Kingdoms vision of comprehensive reform modezation nd
development in a way that be ranslated into relities on e ound nd
provide a blueprint for a beter tre, not oly for the Jord people but
for the peope of the en tire region.
Last but not least the monoaph focses on what happens nex and the
llenges l1ead by inqring for isnct scenrios that od have exensive
raons for reon competitors nd llies The rst scenrio
concenates on the possible reaon of Syria nd its lies on wr threats e
second on the export of e Sn risis n Lebnon, the tird scenrio on
reme hnge n Sa d the major henges that ill srface not oy in
the Arab coun but in the whole reon wle the fourth senrio dels i
reme srvival n Sya It has beome an incresngly ommon
nderstng at whether e current reme remis or hnges e
Midle East wll be affected multiply wi focus on Irn s reonl stning
the power perception of major weste powers, the postre of Israel in the
contex of a urblent rea, nd stablity in neighbong onies pclry
Jordn, Lebnon nd Iraq
Undoubtedly the debate on Sa reets not oly ivisons but most
imporantly e relizaon at policl clocks cot be ed bak� too
much policl moblization has occued for the sus qu ne to come to
tl1e fore intact
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N SESSMENT F HE ION N Y
Te we of protests sweeping troug e r world reced Syri.
Snowbllng demonstrtions in mor cies ike Dmscus, Dar Bani dHoms calling for eter eedoms, improement in iing stdrds and
respect for an rigts, ggered isproporonte recon om te
Sy secuty pprtus gainst protestors
Te Syrian regimes iitil ssessment tt protests will not come t its
doorstep were dased and terefore opted to project an imge of seg and
gt conol s means to old on to power. Te Syrian remes early
ssreness ws bsed on two mor policy pllars expected to deter protests
in te cony. Te rst ws te precedent of Hm, and te second ws
forei policy clo se to te ssroots of te ntion
Specically, Hm te cons for largest city is well no for its
upsng gainst te S B Stte tt imaxed n 982 wit e lng
of 7 Btist ocials d csed te regimes strong respos e wit de
tol rnng etween , and 25 ccoring to esty Inteonal.Te Syn remes iolent crckdown in te city is o s e cse of
Hm. In fct, te cse of Hm represents precedence tt e S
reme perceied it d seared into te collectie consciosness of te Syri
public erefore preentig domesc protests
Additionlly te Syn regime s sessed t its foreign policy would be mo re
tan enoug to ert protests. Mor components of Syrian forei policy
inude () e Dmscs consce role in e post-Sddm Ir n te
secrity d aitarian elds wi te bsorbce of more tan .3 million
Iri regees not esy tsk for cotry of 22 million; (b) te inuenia
staning of Syri in any rb-Isreli pece process t emantes om its
siicant leerge wi orgaiztions like Hms; c) e stec
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partnersip of Syria with Irn, wich produced the orgization of Hezbollh,
fonded trough a ıutul aeeent to ght Israel; (d) the re-eergence of
Sy inuence in Lebnon trough its ared relaonsp with Hezbollh
Hezbol is a coıplex, l-layered phenoenon. It is not the Slte fo
of Qaeda. On one leel it is the ifestaon of assroots epoweent
in Lebnon wich explis widespread Siite support for e orgnization
Hez bol cn ls o be iewed as a ilitry nd ideoloc rı of Ir and the
Iri reoluon in Lebnon. For this reason, Hezbollh is a problem for e
SArab coes becase it is a Shiite power in e hert of the Arab
world.
Frtherore Syrias forei policy includes (e the conduct of inirect
negotiations with Israe, een dring e Jly 206 Lebnon wr. It is e
at the conontationl relaonsip with Israel was not n obstacle for
peoic seret Israeli-Sn contacts. A case in point was e seret track of
cent Israeli Piıe Miister Benaıin N etnyhu nd the Iate Syrn
President Hafez l-Assad with the ıeiation of Americn illionire Ron
Lauder. As disclosed, Lauder presented Syria a docuent tled auder in the
nme of the Pe Miister of Israel on Septeber 998 that contined a proposal to iscuss borders that would be based on the Jne 4 967 lines.
And lastly, Syria eerged om isolaon due to Trkey's pocy of zero
probleısjconicts wth neighbors with regrds not only to the Syrin-Israeli
peace process nd the resolution of intra-Arab affirs, but lso to the
deelopment of extensie econoıic d politicl es between the two
coes.
That sid the bitter irony nd the ltiate pradox for e Syrin reıe is
tl1at the prsued forei policy while appreciated by e pubc was not
enogh to deter protests om eoling. Today it has becoe eident that,
6 Akiva lar Who Really Stopped Ron Laude?" Hre se Dy,Janary
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policall onger generations need oxgen, nd ths cosmec chnges nd
nor reforms seem no lnger scient Sria is in ire need of major
polical soci nd econoc sfoaon
Therefore the Srin presidents rst major speech two weeks since the
protess erupted at the parliament on Mar fel short of
expectatios as it became obvious that it is ighl likel to have sweeping
chnges instuted Later on, in a televised adress on Aprl ı6, the
Srin presiden nounced that the emergenc law in force in Sria for
nerl 5 ers wold be aboished nd called for a nationl ialogue wile
is major third speech on June appered tepid lacking an
siicnt iitiative iming that nsabiit caused b riminls nd salas
was to blame for the dela in implementing reforms. Rther than proising
concrete refos the San president emphasized that secrit had to come
rst and ed to present is authorit as a neul meiator between the
poplation nd the sect forces.
It is not seret that the ocial position of Srin President Bashar l-Assad
supports that the Srin societ like the majorit of societies in the reon, re
experiencng a s in policl igent to "coservasm The Sri
presidenal perception is best smrized b a foer Jo rdn prim e
nister who has met Assad on nerous oci occasions in the pst:
en I sked Ass d wh he do es not poceed on moe pid p e with
poiti eforms he repied tht the pce ofeforms is not tht sow but the
visin hs to be mture beuse it does notfit the soiet then thee wi be
division"7 On ts ound, e process of polic reforms accoring o
Assads percepon was ifclt as evidenced b the cses of coes like
Lebnon d Algeria Specicall accoring to the presidents perception
coes ike Lebnon nd Algeria hat had strived for rapid reforms had set
teriew onuted in Aman n Noeme
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the stage only for conict nd social urest In the case of Algea during the
198s Islaist oups sought to eploit the policl opening of the
goveent to gn power, nd tis underned the intel stablity nd
sparked conict lasng decades In Lebanon, the process of polic refors
nd the elecons of May 29 2005, had been the cause of the subsequent
setarin violence. pon tis perepon the Syrian president repeately
supported that he coun needs e to iprove education nd build
istitutions prior to deoratizing its political syste.
Upon this lo oly inor refors, oseti hges and soe kind of
opening to he Scouity were underken by the Syrian regie in the
lst decade. In 2005, President Assad, wihout any politcl iscussion,decided to ove towrds what was viewed as eonoıi liberlizaon.
Idenclly, the Sy goveent has proceeded to a set of slow nnil
refos as prt of its efforts to sfor the econoy ough the bg
setor Refors included the istuon of a sige echge rate for the
Sy pound the increase of private bk capitlizaon, the inoducon of
the Syrin pound Treasury bill as a rst apital investent insuent, nd
the ncrease of e forei ownersip leve to 6 percen Noteworhy, theeasing of resons on bnk acounts d forei ade enabled e private
bg s ector to gradully epand The rst Gulf bk in Sya naed Bnk
ofSri nd the Gu as well as wo Islic bnks the Sin Interntion
Ismi Bnk and the Chm Bnk were licensed in 2006 nd have epnded
brnhes and servies. Adionlly, in 2008, the Syrin goveent took he
decision to ut e subsiies by 50 percent a poliy prised by reforers
Nevereless, the cosequent 50 perent inrease in the price of diesel was reected across the specu of goods nd servies propng ccs to rgue
that decresed conser purchsng power was evidence hat econoic
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reforms hr Syrias majority poor. Evidently, suh steps shold have been
lnked to policl reforms but litle of that happened
Aleged systeic orrpon in tl1e reme led to econoic uscaon for
tl1e birh of powerl elites in the immediate entorage of the Syrin reme.
Concurenly e Syrin reme developed a push-pll dynac dng e
last deade th enorang moderate Islmists on the one hand wle
repressing what it perceived to be a treateing Islaıist noy on tl1e
other The reme took he strategic decision to play wih the issue of Islam as
it assessed hat it was nder threat and was lling to tke serious risks to
prevent former Vie President Abdl Hlim addam nd Muslim
Broerhood leader Sadredine Baynouıi om developing ny acon in tl1e Scommuiy.
Regime outreach to the Islaıic conity in erly 2006 ncluded a
presidenal approva of a sha law faculty at leppo University the
liesig of tree Islac bks and lowng for the rst time a proıinent
Islaıi gure to lectre at the Higher Mlitary cademy in Damascs
Speciclly the reme allwed moderate Islaic gre d Member of
Priament Mohammed Habash to address he ocers at he Hier Militay
cademy in Damascus, wi the atendnce of the ıiister of defense d tl1e
Grnd M as well as other reios gures. In s speeh Habash lled for
a new Polic Pr es Law that would pet the forman of Islaıi pares.
On a prllel ack he Sy reme effors pointed toward stepped-up
measres to couı1ter rising Islaist inuence. Identically, tl1e Miisy of
Islaıi dowments (waa issued a list of ten resctions on activities at
mosques liitng the hors of operaon to mes of prayer prevenng ny
8 Aoding to n ntern re sue o sket o goods umultive infltonrte o 24.55 peent ws releted sine June 27. e utilities seto ws hdest twit n 87 erent jum in the vege o st of eletit wter fuel nd telehoe rt es.Food tht ounted for 45 erent of the Si udget inesed i rie l mos23 eren
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nauthorizd skrs or activits including th llon of donatons nd
rqng h lowring of th volm of loudskrs usd in th clls to
rayr
In th contx of th rising Islaıic rlious snmnt in Syra nd rgim
attmts to control it whil rrssing violnt ndamntlism th Syrian
rsidnt acctd a tition in July 2006 sid by 200 roıinnt S
rlious grs who rotstd ducaon rform lns on th gronds that
thy would act Islamic schools. Sciclly, th roosd rforms by th
ınss of Education nd Islaic Endowmnts wqaa that mt th
song oosion of th Si rios stablishmnt and consunty w r
shlvd by tl1 Syan govnt focusd on th xnsion of tl1 duraon of rimry school by two yrs to includ th svnth nd th ighth grads, nd
tl1 rohibion on rligious schools om rstring sudnts in th svnth
ad to sciliz in Islaıic ducaon.
On th chatr of tlic inots rgim oings wr iiatd ovr th
last yrs towrd its tıic ıinoris, most roinntly th Krdish
oulation wlich amonts to aromatly 9 ılion in Syria ths
rrsnng 7 rcnt of th cons totl olation. s known, dring th
6s, lmost 350 thousnd Kurds hav bn divd of thir cizn rights
sinc th rdoinnt Baatl1 rabist idolo srvd as ky lk wlich
dstnguishd Krds om rabs nd dnd hm as outsidrs. Th last
dcad, th Syrian rgim ritd Krds room -though liitd- for olical
mnuvr nd cultrl xrssion. From 2007 nd on th annul Krdsh
clbration for th Nw Yar "No in major Syrian citis lk Qamishli
nd Damascus troughout th discts of Rknddin nd Krat l-ssad hav
bn rıittd nd thus rvrsd th cltr of surssion that
r-xstd sinc 2004 Qashli ots that l 2 kld hndrds
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wnded nd thsnds rrested. Cncrrently, mjr Krish liicl
rties re icensed t erte in Syri ike the Kurish Prgressive
Demcrc Pry, the Krish Yii Prty, the Kurish Futre Mvement the
Kurdish Ai Prty nd he Demcrtic nin Prty
Cmng t e mst recent situtin e vilent crckdwn n ci sciety
nd the sin hs reed such rrins in Syri t litic
bservers in e regin d beynd cmre it t the reressin f the 980s
dng tl1e re f e te Hfe l-Assd. As ne rdnin civil rights
cvist cited evously) omprsons wth the fther lwys ponted to
Bshrs ndesveness, k ofeerene nd poor deson-mkng The
ckd hs becme s intense tl1t bservers rge tht the Syrin reme
is rebuiling he "wlls f fer t nce he te President Hfe l-Assd
erected. It is ls believed tht the reme hs embrced cnnttin nd
lllly islted itsef m e EU e S nd he Arb Legue nl
recently lth inte ivisins est, nd re relted t hw gessively
tl1e gvement shuld ursue its crckdwn n rtestrs s well s its
deings the mjr renl nd ntetinl lyers. e Sn
ivisin witl1 regrs t e deee f regime isln nd escltin is mng tl1e u f the s-clled hrd-liners which includes key-gures in the
secty services wh rgue tht Syri benets m tle licy f escltin
nd cnntn witl1 the West nd i ts Ar b fellws nd tl1t y cst in
terms f isln is negligible ven the tlret tht the reme fces fr its
very survivl The ther u cls fr mre nunced licy, ne tht seeks
lited nd der cnl cnntn wile exerng licl ressure t
re-engge th tl1e West nd the Arb felws.
Desite ny divisins ver e deee f isltin nd esclin the verll
Sy reme licy ers slid d nimus. As cited by Jrdnn
9 he l-Qmshli prsing Te Beginnig of New r fo Si Kurds"KurdWt, Repor #4 Decemer
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Baatist wh recently headed a Jrdin delegatin t Syra and met with
tl1e Syan president Assd s stong seesteem nd beief tt e i
oveome te isis No tt te Syin egime is teniy unde
ggession tee n be no diet negotitions it te US. "ıı And
cnnued: Te min pis ofAssds stengt e is peope nd is my
Ove te pst mont te Syin pesident eetivey pesents imses te
defende ofte Syin dignit nd nity ginst ny een intefeene
ts ppeing to Syin ntionism nd Ism
Nevertheless the wrds f tis prinent Jrdan Baathist tl1at ny
impasse rinates in Sya's wn plitcl cltre espused by Baa parys
legacy f s ng ilgue in mes f risis may nt be abslutely crrect. Itseems tlat tle Syrin regime has reated qite intelligently in he ıist f the
sis by nt shu ng drs and by mintiing pen nels f
cmmncatin with majr players mst prinent tle US the Arab League
Iraq nd Russa. The eclusive nterview f he Syan president t the C
Nes nd t Brbra W al ters tl shw Te Vie in erly December 20
was tl1e rst f i ts ind t ıericn TV bradcast sine the erupn f the
risis, d the message early sent t l interested pes was that Ass ad is nt lie e ate Lbyan president. On the cntrry he Syrin president
appered s-spen clm lighly eduated nd he nswered every single
quesn witl1 n nd rles set befre e nduct f tl1e interview. One f
tl1e mst reveing prts f the interview is Assads recin that he
majrity f Syrins were neither fr nr against the reme, but in the iddle,
as well as the recgnitn that there is instabity in sme prs f the ny
hwever the verl sitatin is stable. There has ls been a snd f
Interview codcted in A mn oemer 28, 211 Interiew ondued in Ammn, Decemer 3 211. Interiew conted with pominent Jordni Bthist in Amn Deemer 3211 Intevew wit former odin Minister of ore Afs onducted AmmnDecemer 8 211 Commets of Br Wlters on he tk sow tC, Decemer 6 211
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presidenal optimism wih regrds to the rab League snons perceived as
having the silver ining of smlaig domes producvy d
resorceness Clerly e presidenl message directed to Wasingon was
that the rmed forces re a state instituon nd not the personl propery of
nyone, and that Syria could weather he storms at doubtely lie lead
Conurrenly Sa awarded Iraq a role of meiation to broker a deal with the
Arab League. The Iraqi mediation effors headed by e ons national
serity adviser were llegely spported by he US as evidened by the
condcted tlks of tle Iraqi pme miiser in s ate 20 p o
Wsingon, nd gined he taci approvl of Iran Sa's saec y. The
Iraqi mediation effors seemed o fous on openg hmels ofconication between e Sy regime d tle outside Sn opposition
wle there was explici intention of Iraq o subıit an iitiave in the Arab
League cntex o end he sis.6 The itiave reporely imed at opeing a
iloge etween the opposition d the Sn govement to reah a
mtlly beneci aeemen.
Nonetleless one ıaor fator tha meiaors seem to tke in o acot is that
tle Syan opposition is predominantly divided amog two maor umbrella
orgzaons d lacks a uited leadersp that cold formuate a ont pl
of aon vis-vis he Sy regime nd the internaonl commuity. The
rst is tle ationl Coorination Comtee for Demcrati Chnge (NCC
based in Sya, ih sees itself as representing the opposition witn Syria
nd herefore is e letimae leader of the protess and e seond is tle
Sy Naonl Coc (SNC ased oside the country as well as the
Naonal Authority for Suppor of he Syrin Revolution (ASS7 wh im
uir, twn t Lins Assa Itriw", Dcm Ara Lagu Sks Iaqi diation i Syria, e Daly Sa (Lebanee Daily)Dcmr 8, 7ASS had is ormr Syian Prsint Adl Halm Khaddam and its s cludso m 69 oppositnists rsiding outsid Syria. Le ga (Daily) Nov r 6,
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t delier the ie f the Sy "relun and its deands t the
inteatinal cty. The lack f ty between the iaspra-ased d
the des Sy ppsin and eir isaeeent er e way that
pssile ree change shld happen ipedes sng s far suppr y the
West arenthecally the CC adates adual chge and reects
inteatinal litary interenn whereas the SNC and ASS all fr e
errw f the ree and d nt reect the ptin f inteana
interference. In ts ntex, as part f ther ngng backside iplac
els , Iraqi eiatin between Daasus d e Ara Leage n a eae
Itiae that included he allwce f bserers t tr the prten f
ilians and a dialgue f e regie with ain Syrian ppsin ups was
cnsidered aluale twards a sustainable way ut the ent crsis
On a parallel basis Sya is esated that it has pleged fr an nreased
iplatic rle f Russia n the nteatinal arenas It is in this ntex that
Russia wch held the presideny f he Secury Cuncil fr
Deceber 20 ade a pragac step and subtted a new ra U Secty
Cncil reslun t end the rsis in Syra The ra reslun aled fr the
end f ilene by all par es and e cease f ars supplies t the ppsitin,rged the ipleentan f the Arab League eae Iae with speial
ephasis n the deplyent f bserers n Syria and ephatcally red ut
litary interentn. The ra reslun tuched upn e re f he sis
hweer it was liable t aenents cntaiing aspects f the Arab League
Itiatie such as the release f plitical prisners ialge wth ppsin
representaes, the aceleran f plical refrs thin a cncrete
eae, d a fllw-up echais. Russia s e t take he Syran
teriew wit Ausama naed, Adis t the Secretary General f te SyrianNatna uncil, Nemer 8 011 Sme 00 mees f the S met unis n eceme 17, 0 taks thataied t unite the ppsitn, ad cncluded tat We eed t emerge rm thiscness wt a higher Iee! f rganizatin, cearer tagets ad m re mıentum.
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risis t the Secty Cnl level cincided with the acceleran f Arab
League nd este ressures twrds Syria, and it was widely viewed as a
ng int f Rssi dilmacy as t a certain exend it aved e way fr
the inte1atinlizatin f the crisis. Ntewrthy, Russia and Cina veted a
ra reslun snsred by Frce Geny Prugl nd the UK n
Octber 4 20, that cndened he excessive use f frce by the Sn
authrities aginst rtestrs we Brazil India Lebn nd Suh ca
abstined. It seems that Russia is hedng its bets n a gne at matches the
avity f e factul situatin in Syria envisiing t bridge gas nd t brek
the s ilence f the N S ecty Cunci.
The best utcme fr Russia that cld im credit is the restratin fSyas re-rtest sttus quo as rt f a negtiated slutin nng it a
ilmatic victry n the wrd stage d a sidicatin f e referenl
relatinshi hat it maintains with he Syri reme. In fact, Russia hlds a
navl base n Syas Meiterrnen cast where recently isatched wrsis
inuding its ly rcra carer, while Sya has been a mar client fr
Russi rms sles. Eidently Russia has ra a cncrete line e snd
ver Syria reecting e ilit in aginst the Arab c as e cst f intervenn at the heart f he Mide East is esmated t be vey gh,
favng, hwever e iitiain f dilgue between e Syrian gvement
nd the sin d demnding he isrmanent f ll actrs. It is in his
cntex that Russia has hsted a series f sitin meetings in its caita
nd has tned dilmatically with the igher icl echelns f the Syrian
reme serching fr iable sluns.
t the ek f meian effs, Sya aeed t n Arab Leage rtcl as
rt f the Peace Iitiave with amendments n the rin tex negtiated
nd acceted by bth sides wch rded fr he llwce f bservers t
mnitr its imementan, wile n advced bseer team was desiated
t reare tecc rcedres in cnctin wih e Syri
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authorities.0 The observers' ssion lasted for one month nd cold be
exended for nother one wi the consent of the Sn govement nd the
Arab Leage, nd observers were frly ee in eir movements but not
lowed to visit sesitive ilitry sites. The signing of the protocol wich
clled for the end of all violence, the withraw of oops om the streets nd
the release of detainees, mrked the iitiation of Sya-Arab League
cooperaon with the im to nd a political soluon to e S crisis Most
importantly the acceptce of e Arab Leage protocol as product of
negotiations with the Syan gove1ment gave the laer the politic staning
to apper to e Syri public as a power auoty not wlling to succumb
to y treat at jeoprized Syrin sovereity2 nd as decisive to defend
tl1e cos nationl interests Therefore the sigıing of the protocol cold
have provided the basis for Sya to emerge om tl1e risis d move om e
stage of violence to e stage of stability that cold pave the way for the
promoon ofwide politicl reforms nd democracy.
Evidently Syria seems to have so fr prsued a dul sate wich on the one
side has focused on the adopon of "n ron st domesclly wile on e
other side it has moved meoiclly to met the diplomatic ice by nngmeiaon roles to satec llies not oy sensing that ee re prospects for
concng inteests to be resolved but lso exploing fers nd hopes since
listory revels especilly in the Midle East reon, that once a conict sts
it entils the dnger ofbeing nresolved indenitely.2
On cmr Syia agr to t Ara Lagu protocol, with thconsnt to t osrvrs to th Ara count. Accssd at
htpwww. rsposiitytoprot orgndx. php sscisis-in-syia In a prss cofnc, Syia Foign istr uallm xplictly statd that thprotoco psrvs Syran sovrity and alows Syria to stalish scurity, and adddthat sovrty is protctd y th protocols tx and coodination with th Syangovrnmnt, in ation to Aric 8 o th Ara Lagu har. S, Al-oallmSiing of th Protocol is a P Natonal ciso asd on Intsts of Syian Popl,in A Ns Ag (A) Dcmr Intiw wit a form odanan Fori instr, ondud in Amma,Dcmr 8,
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as f May 9, 20 n the Syrian geen ny fcus n bg the
sle suppy sfer r exprt iretly r inirectly, f eqipent hat ight
be used fr tea repressin. A e sae pace he US Treasury
Deprtent renewed its snctins eezng y assets f Sy fials at
re in the United States r herwise f witin S risicn d brring
Aeri indiiduls and cpes deling wi the.
liticl eites in he ren nd beynd hweer hraterized tle
desian f Sn cials as a purely syb gestre with n tngible
ecnc repercussins, nd as a feckless atak n the Assad ier faily
nd regie ircle nt nly a S adıiisan wih itle plical
leerage er Syria but ls a iided Erpen Un Seir Syncials whse assets hae been zen nder US sncns hae nne n the
Uied States nd the EU rs ebarg is engess since there are n EU
weaps sles t Sya Thus i is esated that sancs lne culd nt
deter he Sy ree resrng t ilent es fr as lng it
perceied tha its suril was at stke
The inil syblic apprah f the US and tle EU sctis against Syria
has reected at frei pwers ay hae had a ested inerest in pssibly
intaiing the stts qo n Syria in the nae f relpolik sne here were
fers that ree hnge in Sa wuld lk a l re ike Iraq n 2003 th
Ept in 20. Hweer the se f the death tll t re h 4000
acrding t esates f he UN H ights Cissin prpted he
EU t pe re pressre n the Sy ree iitiang a new rnd f
24 Regati 44 amed t e par a West-ed initative t app mre pessure teSyran ee t en vilence agast prtesters. uncil Regulatin ) N44001, Cncenig Restrive easures View f the Situatn in Syia, a 9,011.25 At the time f tis mngrap's writing, ths was te umbe f the deat tll.Accrg t Amnest Internatinal, te number as escalate ver the cuse mths int te Sia risis reachig re tan 7 thusand vctims htpww.amnestrg
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sanctions with reglaon No 1244/2011 on December t 2011. The new
measres have included a ban on moitoring sipments going to the Arab
couny, suspening isrance for ansacons, d baing Erope
companies om making new investments in Syria's oil sector e EU
sctions target Syrias oil indstry by blacklisng state-owned rms at
oversee ade d exploration, as well as halng sal es d impors of Syrian
ol and byproducts; the state-oed General Peoleum Corporaon (GPC
and Sa Traing Oil (Syol as well as a GPC oint ventre Al Frat
Peoleum Company, fall in the sanctions list. Adionaly the E has
suspended the priing of San crrency in the E, has blocked investment
and development ai d, has ozen aing proams e Arab co, d
has insucted the Eropean Investment Bak to hat ıdig of
iasuctre projects.
Sanctions have also been imposed on twenty istitutions and compaies
conected to the reme inuing the main Syrian mobile phone provider
and the Al-Shams Holing Company, Syrias oly pivately owned polical
newspaperAlWtn the Cham Press television station, the Scienc Stuies
and Research Center (CERS) for proviing suppor to the Syan army toacquire equipment used directly for the seilance and repression of
demonsators, the companies of Business Lab, Industrial Soluons
Mechanical Construcon Factory (MCF, Syroics-San rab Co for
Elecoic Induses and Handasieh-Orgaization for Engineering Industries
as ont compaies that also conbute to the acqision of sensive
equipment According to Uraib Rantawi, irector of the al-Qus Center for
Political Stuies based in ıman the mposton ofEU sntons s skgme The EU should ete le poltl son) odmp to poltl
stblt n S Smpl mposng sntons on S nd demndng the
oust ofthe uent egme wthout speng the poltl ngedents ofthe
See Ofcial Joal ofthe Eopean Union, Volume 54, Decemer
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tnsitinl peid it eg t ill tke ve te d e,
mpites te situtin nd uns te isk finteginl ci
The renewed E pive meare ame er the Arab League in
nprecedented move along with Trkey on November 2 2011 approved
econoc nctio on Sya to prere e regime in Damcu to end e
dometi uppreion The idea belnd the Arab League non wa that
being iolated by it Arab fellow cone i much more pil for n Arab
nationalit on like Sya thn being ntioned by the Eropen Uion
nd the ited State. 28 In fact ha been e rt me that the Arab bl o
h enforced a erie of pive meaure of uch maitude againt a
memb er tat e29
The Arab League anon include (a) a avel bn on eior Syrian ocil
to e Arab coe and the eezing of their aet; (b) utting o
naon with the Centr Bk of Syria (c) the ceae of ade blcking the
le of noneenti commoie into Syria; (d) the hlt of Arab govement
ing for project in Sya nd eezng govement aet; (e) e top of
nncil anation with e Sn govement; ( the ceae of deling
with the Coeral Bk of Sya (g) the demnd om the Arab enl
bk to ceae bk tranfer and ade reit wi e exception of bank
nfer om worker abroad to eir failie in Sya, nd retce of
Arab citizen in Sa; (i) a chedule to top Arab t to d om Syria
nd ) e aigment of wo major agencie to follow up implementaon of
the pive meare namely e Arab Air Ciil Authority nd the Arab
Monetry Fnd
Intrviw codctd in Am ma, omr Th sspnson of Syrias mmrship in t orgaization as prcdd th iıpositioof onomc sactios. of t otris that ak p t Aa Lag sppod th st of sanctiosIraq astaind om th sanions ot, and Lanon disassociatd tslf o th ot.oth ountrs said ty would not nforc th sactons.
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ct the money line that Syrin binee mintin with he Arab world
nd ti meare i lo expeted to favor the gran of capitl om Sya.
In btce e EU, the S nd the rab Leage ction im to
nderıine the fondao of he Syrin regime weken it coherence d
ienate it poplr ppor bae. The intel ctre of power of the
Sy reme re abided by olidrity among the eite nd thoe he lower
rk. Thee relationhip be vilized a a pyraid with e preident
nd hi o e entorage at the top d the exitence of errc top-down
network of panage nd dependence whch pervade ll inton nd
level of oiey. Therefore the trgeng of i rking Sn inividl by
cioning their binee nd eezing their aet abroad, im to create
inte1l iviion nd diconect the mt om the ret of e pyrad
ditionlly, e ceae of forei invetment nd the reon of iqiiy
aet h cold ae a negave blnce of payment, nd therefore
redce the Syn Cenl Bk rreny reerve im to tget the paıid
tre of prilege poible depletion of crrency reere cold lead to
the collape of the nationl crrency. In fer of ti poibility igh rk
inividl may renfore e tendeny to trnfer ther aet abroad, a it
happened drng the trd qrter of 211 where depoit in Syrin bk
decreaed by percen
However, the effectivene of nction i qetioned by policl oberver
the reon nd beynd de to the lak of niity in the Arab Leage ontex
th regrd to ncon agint Sya Alo, one that neighbor Sya
namely Lebnon Iraq nd Irn re widely perceived a the potentil lrge
gate for the nction brek.
Lebnon adpt a tnce of netrlity regring the event in Sya and of
non-terference in Syria intel affir, nd reined om voting the
eonoc nction agint Syia in the Arab Leage, on the gron that
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Syrias secty nd stabity are tied to Lebnons. Since its formaon on
June 2011 Miatis govement donated by the pro-Syrin March 8
Forces, ed to clvate the image of a moderate nd neul Lebese
goveent, presably movated by Lebanons dependence on Western
id both econoıic nd ılitary nd by the fact that it served in September
2011 as the rotang president of the Secty ounc. Tis tac has also
been employed vis--v other maor issues in Lebanese polics such as e
Specil Tribnl that investigated the assassination of former Lebnese
Prime Miister Al-H for ich 2 illion dollrs has been wred
by the Lebnese govement so at the possibility of teationl sancons
on the contry is avoided.°
Lebnon' s posion is itated by the geoapc proity as wel as its ose
nd complex es with Sa that desbe the aionl econoıic
relationship between both as one lrge pool" wich labor commoies
nd money ows impeded. The linked natre of the two econoes raises
Lebnese worries on the ramicatios that scons may have on he
conys economy as the relaonsip between the two cones is not
lite to ofcial ade relations at were esmated at rond $1. bllion in2010 but they also include the movement of labor Syrian expatriate workers
who e double the Sy wage and get pi in hard cuency provide Syria
i an estimated $1-2 bllion ally in reittnces a cric! sorce of
reven ue for Syria s 22 billion dollr economy.
Mutuy, Lebnese present a hi-skiled labor force that aiony mkes
up for the upper management in e telecommication nd other sectors in
Ün a para track, som t US ongrss ha rcommn cutg off militaai to th ans Amd Forcs, t what sms to av prvaild is that Lanonshould not unsd fo a ocratic chang in gomnt t is smat that whilzollah is making inoas in t Lans scuty srvics, th Arıd Forcs ar st!oya! to th stat, not t rsistanc, atou thy o cooprat closly whn cssawit th Iranian-ackd orgaizaton.
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the conry s public nsport network Irn cold lso help Syri wether the
snctions by buying its crude oil preiosly desined for the Europen
coes or by llowing Dmscus to py for impors in Syrin pounds
It is no seret tht mutully benecil econoıic relonsip beween Syri
nd Irn hs resulted om eir policl llince - ough Tehrn sl
remns relely inor ding prer - goeed by n eemen dting
bck o Mrch 1996 t ws red s Decree 241 in 1997, nd by
preferenl trde greement" lowering tffs on some goods. Pte Ir
inestment inoles inerl oil renery kno s the Dmscs
Perocheıicl Renery locted in Dumeir3, wle Ir' s ghes prole
inestments in Syri re two utomobile ssembly plns ht opened in 2007nd re eport oented The rst is the Syrin Irin Automoble
Mnufcturing Compny (SIAMCO) pln, joint entre mong Irin
oro, he Sy Generl Orgıizon for Enneering Induses d e
prie Syrin l-Sult Group The second cr ssembly plt is joint
projec of the Irn Sip nd the pte Syri-Irin Veie compy
(SIECO Inetionl. The epsion of the Hm cement plnt lso
presents mor Iriı inestment project t hs incresed its producon lne om 11 ilion o 14 mllion tons, wle e Irnin Azrb compny
renoted s prime conctor the nys power pln Eqully import
hs been the concng of e Irni compıy Thsee Silh tht hs
coitted to bilt ten 100.000 mec ton in silos cross Syri tht
proide storge cpcity of more thı e ilion metric tons for Syn in
projec of itl importnce s whe resee is iewed s esseni for he
couny' s poiticl independence.
The et t the EU, the US nd he Arb Legue snctions pose on he
Sy economy re epected to e precipite the power blıcing
The Leanon Weekly onitor," Bnk Audi, Septemer 1-18, 01.
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satees of Irn nd Syria In mes of polic and economic hrdsips, Irn
adionlly has sided by Syria nd his policy is epeced to happen again
nder the current circumstnces as story seems to repeat itself. Identiclly,
in e erly 980s the Syrin regime perceived itself nd the Allates as the
trget of n alring Su re belion campign supported by the same Su
states in coni with Ir, a siuaon that resembles much nowadays,
thou in a different policl nd geopolicl conte. During that me, Sa
received one ilion ee brrels of Ir oil per yer nd ther 5-7
ilion per yer at /3 iscont The Irain subsidy is imed to have been
worth of 269 ilion dollrs per yer and came at a time when e Syrin
economy was in prclar ouble.
The urblent domesc Syan ont since Mrch 20 at has led to the
adua reonl nd inteationl isolaon of the Sy reme hs brought
the two ces closer as ey shre ınaor interests cosidered at stke.
Driven by e essen ce of solidriy, Ir pursues the policy of econoc
soidicaon hus proviing the vital lteave to Syria. Speciclly
imporant step of satec essence has been e July 25 20 sing of a
0 bilion dlr natrl gas aeement beween Irn, Ira nd Syria wichforesees hat the tree coes will construct a pipeline ng om Irns
natrl gas elds to Syria nd eventually to the Meiterrnen, via Lebnon.
dditionally, Irn and Sya aeed to set up a joint bk in Damascus where
the iti capitlization of the bak is estimated to 30 ilion dollrs, with
Irn owng 6 percent of the bk, while on July 5, 20 the Irnin
Th rfinr was a millio doar apita proct that ommcd opations in
Fo a mo dtaild acount on t Sran-Iaian conomi rlatiosip during th 98 s, See Anoushiravan Ehtshami and Raond Hnnbush, an and an:Mdde Pe in a Peneaed Regna s, Routldg Plicatios, 997, pp.9899·
Undr ths agrnt Iraq would initiall rciv millio ubic mtrs p day, andSra to mlon cub trs pr da Iraq, Iran si atural gas agrmnt,", J Iran, Sia to St Up ot an," ss ay
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Supreme Leader expressed sup por for a proposal by Iran' s Center for
Satec Research (SR) to provide Syria with 5.8 biion dollars in aid3 The
Iran Minister of Indses and Mines Ali Akbar Merabian claimed in
Agust 2011 that the Islac Republic has 1.3 bilion dollars worth of various
projects nderwy in Sya, nd on September 2011 e joint Ir-Venezuela
ol compy VENIRG nounced pns to build oil renery in Syria
cpable of producng 140000 baels per day.3 Evidently Ir cold l a
dmenta role in ining e eects on any inteational or Arab
Legue sanctions ginst Syri.
With regards to Iraq Sia has been an inispensble reonal player whose
usual mdus opendi of workng angles to ensure that it remains relevanton Iraq has been the dominant policy n he post-Saddam era Syria has
demonsated over the years hat it wels tle power to off and on Iraqi
oppositon cvities by havng hosted Iraqi opposition conferences on Syn
so nuding Ba'ahsts, ibl eders and former Iraq reme loyalists and
by ng a blind eye on insrgents ansiting trough Syria into Iraq.
Therefore Iraq' s decision to reject the Arb egue sancons gainst Sa is
riven by secy along th economc considerations
Iraq is Syria' s largest Arab ading partner. Trde between Iraq and Sy
reached 2 bllion dolars in 2010 d is estimated to reach 3 bllion dolars in
2011 according to the Syrian entre for Stascs which has also disclosed
tlat in 2009, 52.5 percent of Syria's exports went to the Arab world, while 31.4
percent of that went to Iraq. Adtionally Damscus uses its ports on tle
Meterrean to bild an important ade route between Iraq d Erope.
Baghdd and Dscus have already aeed to re-open the Kirkuk-Banis oil
Tehran Rea to Gie Sia $58 illio," Reute, ul , 2011Iran Veezuela to ld Refiner in Sia," s Septe mber 22 201 aqi eput Foeign Ministe abid Abbaw sumarized Iraq s decision to reje theArab Leage sactions as follows O positn is manl econmic here is a tradeexchage between Iraq and Sria, ad ajt border
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pipeline, which exend o oil el in Norhe Iraq to the San port of
Bia. In fat in Septeber 2010 Iraq nd Sa ied n aeeent to
bld two new KirkkBnia pipeline; one with apait of 1.5 llion
bel per da would crr heavier crude ol wile aner pipeline wi
capacit of 1.25 llion bel per da wold rr ghter rude oil9 At a
e when Arab felow recled ther abaador o e Srin capitl
Iraq enterined ore th San buineen in eor to boot ade
between the two coe d a pact wa ied to proote a oaring
bilaterl ade that lread top 2 billion dollar a ear. Aditionll l ot
200000 Iraqi work nd receive alrie n Sria, ceenting eonoic
e at l-laered level.
With t relit ıind, a widepread non ee to adul gin
inte1ational politica bacng at, in the cae of Sria econoic non
hould be eploed alog th the treat of overwheling tar force
ndor cover ue of fore uch a forei porp to the owing red
oppoition veent otl known a the Free Sin Ar agint the
S ree. The Free Srin Ar (FSA) i deeed a iportnt eleent
in e S equaon d a n increaingl iicnt plaer that coldot lkel inuence the outoe of event The FSA wa forall nnoned
on Jl 29, 2011 d legel inclde defector for the Srin r of l
rnk, o cipt to bgaier generl and o a de vrie of obat
nit d orgizaon, incluing ke regie prop uh a the Repubc
Guard The FSA however, appear to be a relativel at onization with a
cond nd eadqurter in Turke poibl a et of reonl or rea
cond wi uborinate oup n Sria d accorng to eia report,one or two cobat eleent in Lebnon.°
Syria, Iraq to bld ppeline, Tehn Ties (Dily Nsppe) September 0, 010° e FSA allegedly operates thougout Syia, both in urba areas and in thecountryside. Forces are active n the orhwest Idlib, Aleppo, the cental regio (Homs,Hama, and Rastan), the coast arod Latakia, the south (eraa ad Houran), the east
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Try a n l s aly th Syrian rm rprly as h ida f
rss-brdr ilitary prans playing hwvr a gam f sms in lin
with h psin f Fran arding t wih th ran f a sriy zn
t pr ivilians alng th Try-Sy mmn brdr" wil nd
litary prtn nsr th dlivry f aid Arig t Trish
Daily Miiyet Fran has snt its ilita traiing frs t Try and
Lbann t ah th FSA wl Frnh Brish Libyan and Trish
authriis hav rahd amnt t snd arms int Syria
It sms at th as fSyria is dvlping at a iffrnt pa m th arlir
rvlutinary wav f prtsts n Tnisia and Ept Th Syri prsts hav
lad h vrall suppr f h rb id ass wil army wih
rprsnts h main fndatin f th Syan rm has rmaind uid
and has maintaind s allan t h ring lit
Hwvr th prlngatin f th dms instability in Syria prvidd
utsid pwrs th m t psitin thmslvs as artars f Syria s tr.
In h fa f h ngig failr f th Syrian rm t alm dms
nt d th inrasing rl f utsid pwrs Syri dal ld
mrph int a dangrus pssibiliy namly a Lbann-li ivil war r a
Libya-ind f ilita ntrvnn42
(Dayr al-Zawr, Ab Kamal, ad the Damascus area. e argest concetratio o these
forces appears to e in te cetral reon (Homs, Hama, and the srrodng aeas) Fora more detaile account o the FSAs structre ad operatios, Accessed at:htpsyiacomment.comAt a meetng, whch was held Istabul and included Tukish ocials, the Syriansrequested assistance from te Liban represetaves and were offered arms and,potentially, volunteers. See, Libyas New Rers fer Weapons to Syria Reels,Accessed at htp:w.teleaph.co uk Interview condcted wit a formerodaan rime iister in Amman on ovemer29, 2011.
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C. uS POLICIES ND BITIONS
Vs-A-V Y
Turky ha bcom mor focd on h lac wold and it ulim
adion in it fori policy though it rman a blnd of wt
ititution and orintaon Tky pru a ı of aional wt
ont d fori policy howvr it ha incorporatd two nw idolocal
lmnt th ro-problm/conct" and no-otomaim o
ottomaim i a Turih polica idolo43 that promot atr
ngagmnt h ara forly undr th Otoman Empir d ha
profondly bcom h nw concptual amwork of h Turih fori
policy.
Th dominant aional fori policy cntr on th cont coopraon
and intaon with th Wt namly ATO th ffort to acc th EU and
th ctom ion with th EU. Th EU i Turky major ading parr
acconng fo 42 prcnt of h coy total rad wl th S i
impoant in th litary nr d aaon ctor4 Th Trih litaryi havily dpndnt on h US upply d tcnology wi Trky rali
that rblnc in it immiat ntorag om Libya and Ira to
Afghatan and Pakit ncitat co coopration h th Wt and
ATO Eually intrng i th fact hat th Trkih ladrhip
acknowldg that part ofh con allr in th iddl Eat tm om
it ky poition in Wt club and intituo.
4 The sif in the rkish foreign pocy nde Tuut Özals govemet can edesied as te first sep of Neo-Otomansm See urinson, Alexander, Turkey'sEnente with Israel and bajan: t te deny and Secury n te Mdde East andCucasus Routledge ulications, 00, p. 94 Katinka asc and Raner Hermann, EU siness and Tkish Accession, eterfor European Refor Essays, Accesse at:htp//www. cer. org uk/sites/ default/files/pulicatios/atachmets /pdf/0/ essay_trkey_usiness_june7_foe -398. pdf
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Borrowing om the Weste rhetori tht Trkey is bridge between the Est
and e West, its woldview s expressed by its ledersp envisions
eonoilly nd ltrlly integrted Mide Est s e driver for pee
and not the sis-ridden periphery of tody. It is tis ontext tht Trkey
supports t s the lemte suessor of the tomn Empre should be the
fos of the re-estblishment of song Midle Est and Este
Meiterrnean regios exploitng the ideologal elements of the zero
problemsonits with neighbors and neo-otomaism wh employs the
onepts of Islmi solidarity and ofTrkish-Isli synthesis.
The new ideologial forei poiy element of the zero-problemsonts"
onentes on Trkeys eorts to resolve problems with its immeite near
brod This new element onits the trdionl poliy of letng long
te ozen oits fester. Upon ts, Trkey prsued an openg to Armei
tht imaxed wi e siging ofreoon protools, nd the support of the
Anan P to res ol ve the Cyprs queson 4
The seond forei poiy element inorportes the oneptul inedients of
neo-otomaism wih solidies Akars spirtions to re-engge esanged
neighbors and to serve s meitor in onits in the Midle Est and
elsewhere. It is in tis mework tht Trkey ws instrumentl in meding
between S and Isrel and in opeing ialogue wth oups witin Irq
inuding the urds The ide of Turkey employing its ltral and relios
links to the Midle Est for the dvanement of Turish interests and reonal
stbility hs gined momentum by veteran Trkish iplomt and Foreign
Miister Alımed Dvutoglu His theo, best expressed in hs book Strteg
Dept Strtek Dernl is tht most of the reonl regimes are
Lit of tru practical accompishnt has n achivd as th yprs qustion sstil unsolv I 009, Turk agrd to rciv a group of Kurdish rtns om Nor Iraqtrirng raions vaing om a warm ting y pro-P crowds to incdulousraions from Turks th Wst.
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ndemocrac and llegiimate nd therefore Turkey by capitlizing on e
leged adıiraon among Middle Eate poplation for it econoıi
ucce and o politic power reache over the reme to the Arab treet
In the ndet of the Arab treet Trkey i multi-dimenionl for a nber of
reao d th appelng; rt Trkey repreent a ue econo
mode at maged to move the cotry om the developing coe leve
to the power eonoc elite of the G-20 econd Turkey repreent a o
power of lam govence at lteate the democracy exercied by
Irael. In he Arab inet, Irae ed to repreent e bet model of
demoray in the reon rooted in olid principle and intituon Thi Arab
poion tarted to adully hge when rael took the deciion to proceedin peae negoaon wih he Pletiin nd filed to deiver peace
ivident epecially dng he lat ten yer Due to the pocl fact on the
ond, Trkey ha mnaged in lrge to replace Irael a the ole orce of
demrati airation4
To apitalize in it rapport wth the people nd it Otom experience a wel
a it uppoed iplmac expertie Turkey ha own itelf deeply into the
water of he Arab Sprig enviioig to pan it The Trkih paoniation
i atempted with it lamc orientation, e to reliouly conervative
contienie d lleged depread populrity among e Arab cric
ma. er the effervecent phae of ocial networing the Arab Sprig h
entered a cc! crve depicted in the eletrl advce of Ilamic pre,
wich have profounly led a polical void in thoe onte where
nprent policl nituon d elar pare have been abent and
The Turksh sucess is atribted to is technoo-led grow and trade arly due oits ustoms ion with the U wich is he best exors market as well as theinvestmens rom the ad he decades od tenological ansfer by te S andIsrael. Ineiew with Adnan Ab Ode, olitica advisor to ate ig Husse, a fomerSenator and former Chief of the Royal Cour Jordan, Amman, Deember 7 20
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Intaonal Couity sn ky assroots orgaizrs and avists
algly srv on th SC brsi Srtaat Gnral, and th
Exutiv Coitt. It is tis ontx hat th Trkish govnt
invitd a dlgaon of th SC o atnd th World Eono For
onfrn titld Platfor for Intaonal Cooration" ld in Istbul on
Novbr 2-25, 211. T onfrn as iorant vnu attndd by
govnt oials and businssol o or 0 os hr
th SNC dlgaon as offrd th ooty to adrss th hol assby
and rsnt th Conil s olitia agnda
Turky has thoiay anagd to njoy siiant olial out in th
Syan oosition ith th ai to b iquly ositiond in th ost-Assad
Sya. Th vi of th SC toards Trky is bst suazd by Ausaa
Monajd advisor to th Srt Gnral of th SNC uey s been
suppotie of te Syin evolution nd onsides Syis secuity nd
stbilit mtte ofntionl inteestfo te entie egion. Tuey nd ote
oties my ply positie ole duing te tnsition) but it will be up to
te Syin people to d te pt of tei tue. At te sme time) it is
ntul to epect Syins to emembe wo sided wit te people ofSyi
nd wo suppoted teAssds �
lectronc inteiew with Asama Monajed, Advisor to e Secretary Geeral f heSN, vember 8 1 Ibid. Ierestngy, Mr Monajed spped tha te SN holds taks and dialgeswi oher oppositin groups ad indepedents to uni the srate, and wrk ontoppling the regime eause the US and e have expessed sppor for the SN.However, the oun s waing fo moe reoal Ara b sppor. Fo this re ason te SNwil ontnue to work o beig more clusive Te SN delegatio icluded xecutive ofie memer and onomic Ofice hairmanSam Nashar, the Secretary of the General Secretaria Wael Meza, and members of theconmi Oice Mustaa al-Sabba and Ad Shishal. See Lcal ordiatinommitees, Syran atioal ounl Atends the Wld oomi Frum onerenein Isanul", Decm er 4, 011. Op.cit. Inteiew with Ausama Monajed
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The poicie of Trkey aaint he Syrian reme have been intenied with
the proviion of loical upport to the Free Syrian Army that employ
defector om the San army, and of poical upport for the forman of a
Mlitary Concil whoe main oal i to topple the reime and protect citizen,
public and private property and to prevent chao once the reme fall, while
it member cannot pacipate in any polical party or reliio movement
Turkey alleely eek the de ure etablihment of a no-y zone over Aleppo
in orthe Syria followin the example of Libya Specicaly the aim of he
no-y zone i o create a ecred zone tha would erve a hatarian
corridor7 d to Aleppo into a Syrian Behazi much ike the Libyan city
that erved a the poical and ıiitary b a e of the Li byan oppoion. T,
however i a riky ame a the experience th no-y zone over cone
ha hown that uch meaure in e abence of any viable polical olution
complicate the iuaon The cae of Iraq i ndicave where he
impoition of a no-y zone over he Krih area n orthe Iraq and he
Siite reon in e outh of he couny without a prior mdate om e
Security Concil ha enjoyed ited ucce between 1991 and 203
nder e protecon of S force, hat deoyed e anti-aircra defene of
Iraq and the litay bae on he ound, e Kr etablihed de o
autonomy in ore Iraq A e ame me, he oue1 part of he
con connue to be under a tate of complee lack of ecrity and daily
armed ahe, takin for ted he enry of iiant of Ilaıit
orazaon uch a al-Qaeda
On a parallel bai Trkey upport e econoic ancon aant Sya apropoed by the Arab Leaue. Havn coidered it improvin relaon wih
Sya a a key forei policy ucce dn he lat decade, Trkey ha
Frane has uled out miary ation agains Syia ut alls for te creation of a seuredzoe tha will reuire ıilita protetion o ensure te delery of huıanitaian ai d See
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invstd havily nd solidid onomi oopraion th its Arab nighbor.
Mo r thn 5 amnts nd mmranda of drstning in fils rnging
om nsportaon and sty to nr and watr ar in pla, th most
satly importnt nvisioning th irrigaon of 15, hrs of
farlnd in provin of al-Hasakh using watr om th Tis rivr as
wl as th onson of a dam on th Oronts rivr for powr gnran
nd irgaon. Th lloaon nd us of th Tigris ivr watrs forms
adionl or of politia d sat onsidraons for Syria, thrfor
th shng of bn ts and xprs btwn h two ons prsntd a
major shi om h inatabl approah of th past
Euly imporant has bn h amnt for th liag of Sya's naturalgas piplin at is par of th 12 kilomtr "Arab Natur Gas Piplin
at xports Egypn narl gas to Jo rdan Syria nd Lbon, a
sprat lin to Isral to h proposd N abuo piplin that rosss Trky
om Cnl Asia into Europ n wih aims to onst nothr vin that
ll support Nauo projt It is importnt to not that Syria prhass
round 1.5 bilion kilowats of lity om Trky lly to mt its
inrasing nr ns
Also, ad btwn two ouns xpdd to suh lvls at Trky's
ad volum rahd bilion dollrs as of 29, il invstmnts of
Ryan Mauro, Reors or Coing ilitary Actio Syria" Noeber 5 011.Acessed at ht/ /wfrontagemagoIt s true that Syria and Tkey came closer to ding a understading on water andseity issues with te enaned pos-003 biateral rpocheen. Joint roectsand the shaing of exerise ad bees were adocated Sine 005, Tra II hannels
hae aso gathered exers ad forme offials fro the wo o-riaran ouniesthoug te Euhrates and Tiis Initatie or ooeration I. For more on thetoi, See aa Daoudy, Syian-Tukish Hydodiloay", Tody (MonhlyMgzne), Janua 010 Hasa anbolat, Eonomc reatios etween Turey and Syria, Tods ZmnOtober 3 0
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Turish compes in Syria accont to nearly 26 ilion dollrs The
siing of agreements on Preventing Doule Taxaon "the Recprocl
Smlus nd Protection of Investments as well as the estalishment of e
"Free Trade eement provided the legl foundatons at ind e two
counties nd wch fresee that in a 2-yer period, indusa produs
expored om Trkey to Sya will e ee om cstom txes in increments
wle products entering Trkey om Syria re currenty entrely ee om
customs txes
Therefore, Turkeys sspension of ncl relations with Sya and the
eezng of Syrin govement assets in e country have he potenl to
cause a seous setack n ilatera trade and econoıic relaions overal Syriafor its prt has lready sck out at Trkey y placing a 3 percent triff on
Turish imports thus increasing the prices of Trkish prodcts that
jmped 3-4 percent oveght In response Trkey opene two addinal
crossings to raq in order to assst locl merts to ypass Syria n ade
the Glf nd Ept. a prlle asis, Trkey noced at t wil
stop ll nsactions th the Commercial B of Syria except for e
esng ones, and that t will hlt l credit aeements signed wth Eimnto nnce Syrin nasuctre projects
a Turkey}s Regional Moivaions
It is no seret that Trkey un der its cent leadersip has invested major
political captal in methodologicy deepenng relatios with Syria and
constituted a ready meiator willng to help Damascus mend its strained
o Republc of Turey, Miistry of Freign Affairs key-Syria comic and TradeReatios", 2010 Turey has annunce that it has already frzen neary 250 millin dollas inxibak credit to be used in proects in Syra. Hurre Dal s, Trade with SyriaHit by Turey' s Sains" Noveber 30 2011
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relations with neighbors such as Israel. Trkey has facilitated a series of
Syn-Israeli peace tks that ended in Decembe 28 with the mn focus
on that if Syria were able to aieve peace with secty nd obtin eater
US nd Trsh involvement it might be llng to pll away om Irns
orbit Therefore the chnge in Trkey's posre towrd Israel has been lgely
a to ol to advce the co s re-orientaon rather th ny sense in its
cause The decline of Trkey' s relaosip with Israe that stred in Davos in
response to Israes December 28 invasion of aa d later on over the
lla episode abd the Mavi Mrmra provided the basis for Turkey's
ambiious reona agenda, one that primrily trgets Iin postre
The moves of he nfolding Trkish poicy svis Syria lie beind tscoitment to re-arm Trkey s ose relaonsp with the US nd i ts
intenon to outweigh Irnian reonl inuence. The vlry between S
Trkey nd Sia Irn is not new. On he con it is istoclly rooted since
Trkey nd Irn re widely viewed as the iminished heirs of two maor
compeng Msim empres the SOtom Empre and the Slite Safavid
Empire, nd tis rivalry has cently evolved to the egos level of Trkish
Prime Minister Erdogn and Iran President hmainead.
In ceran aspects, Sa seems to have become tle focs of tle Iran
Trkish vlry that lrgely touches upon the inteests nd epectations of
reonal conies nd he West. Speciclly egionl cones ike Saui
rabia Qatr nd Brin tl1at mintin lrge Slte ınories have invested
heavly in puig forwrd rab League scons against Sya d support
tl1e increasing role of Trkey n na-Arab affirs since ey view e Syrin
risis as a golden oppo ty to iiish Irnian inuence d postre in theher of the Midle East3 ccoring to e lf States pespecve Irn
Inteew ndue with a mer Jrania Freign inste Amman,Decemer 8, 2011 The Shiite minities the Aab wrld are widesread an numerus. In SaAraba, the Shiite eleent acts t ar erent, ahrain er 70 ercent Iraq
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anticipates that Siite oups in the CC states are sated by ther failure
to establish deocracy and ipose liits on authoritan rle, nd therefore
it is a ater of ie for these oups to to the Iran big brother" for
support.
Upon this line of thought, an Iraqi ofcial ho eets ih Irai
policyakers on a reglar basis has claied at a oup n Iran oced a
project involving nationl Shiite security", and exaines the Jeish
experient in exporng their idea sloly nd clly," apparently a reference
to nteaonl Zionist orgaiations' role in advocating pro-Israel interests. 64
Te Siite protests in Balrin in the ist of the Arab spng ere porayed
by the ulf states as a setarin Shiite plot indicaive of the fer of he
expanded Irnin and Ste inuence on the predoinatly Su Arab
orld, nd not as a iscontent steed cey o Siites loer standrd of
living, nofcial exclsion o sesive goveıent posions, and Su
do ination of parliaent.
lf States idely behold at a possibe overro of the onarchy n
Barain hose 70 percent of the populaon is Shiite could serve as
springboard for Iran abions that perceive Bran as the 14 province
of Irn. The ulf States interests coincide ith those of the West d Turkey
since Irani doince is also apprehended as posing a satec treat to
vita secty assets. For exaple, Blrin hosts the Naval Support Acvity
Brain (NSA Brin) d tlıe US Navy eet headquarters. Literay
located in the heart of the lf e naval b ase and the headquarters re a key
satec asset for he US presence in e der Midle East as hey perit
tlıe overlong of oil istalaons d ade routes e support of the US
aot 6 percent, uwat aod 30 percent Qatar almost 5 ecet an Leaonaroun 30 eenteew onducte in Athes July 5 011. The Iraqi offiial sa that Iraniaeffor to expo t ideolo will e qet in a way that w ot e immeateynoticeae t will shae the egion.
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forces in Iraq nd histn, nd the ght against navl piracy in the Red
nd the Arabin Seas.
It is in ts geopolic mework that Trkey spıng to braden its
horizons has got itself deeply into the waters of the Syrin risis to diish
the Irnin nuence d present itself as e neo-ottomn mediator d
defender of the larger Su Msim neighborhood, wi he ulmate aim to
sere as e hor for a new geopolic liment Trkish Forei Mister
ed Datogolu adited inhe recent past that "rther wht we Trkey
re trying t d is t ntribte t the estbishment permnent pece in
r regin Iby rder this is Px Ottmn Px in the mening rder we
Trkey re trying t estbish n rder it is nt wrng t sy sh thing
The Trkish rivlry wth Irn seems to take into accont its reonl
ambitions for establishng a regional order with a wath eye on the interests
of eater outside powers By enrclng diplomacally nd possibly ilitrily
Sya Trkey esmates that Iraq and Lebon wil follow st d thus a
coincidene of Weste1 nd Tursh interests will empower he reon
leadership role of Trkey wih the blessng of the former. Concently Iraq
presents n rena of Trish-Irain compeon and Weste interests
where he Shiite-Su dvide is doinnt nd where the Irin inuene
has exended over religious Site polic pares at shape Iraqi politis at
tl1e nationl level nd at e provinci d loc levels in Cenral d
Southe Iraq Lebnon for its pr is lrgely perceived as e satellite of Ir
nd tl1erefore, Trkey onces about er cosolidation of Irn
iuence ner its borders through the enhnced power of Hezbollah
r atur, New Otomans is ot a Good Wled Desciption Sabah sDecemer 4 2009.
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b. Turkey-s DomesicAgenda ands ReZevance o Syria
There has been a cerin deee of rtist by the Trkish leadership in tilng
Turkey towrds the Middle East th the redeion of its domesc porities
nd polics Thogh few expected that the EU ll embrace Trkey
membership a Trkish abitin viewed according to a former Jordin
forei miister more like the hope of the devil in heaven6 Trkish me
Miister Erdogn exploited the profound EU rejecon to nderine tatrk's
Westezing legacy and to pursue n ambitios domesc agenda
Havng relized the rgent need to address the issue of Trkey s minories
nd of a non-militry solution to the Krdish problem with a cler disnction
between meeting the needs of the Krdish poplation nd defeang the
Krdistns Workers P the P Turkey advesed the so-called Nationl
Uity project whose nature directed towrds the cont's minoty oups,
most prominently the Krds nd the Alevis, that mintin a sigicant
presence in neighboring cones like Sya
The Trkish govement s iiti efforts to reach out to the Krds to cal m the
trbulent intel ont have become tile The early encoragement to start
sng e Kurdish laage in the policl nd public renas was widely
accepted by the rds alog wi e Turkish govement' s aeement to
receive a oup of Krdish reees om N orthe Iraq in 209 Reforms
nd gestres towards the Kurdish ethnic minority were accredited to the
aonal iy proect indicating that democrazation is part of the solution
to tl1e Krdish issue to lly defeat Krdish seprasts . The rgn1ent that
tl1e sengheing of the society leads to a strong state di d not go han d in hndth reforng the constion to recoize that Trkey has ceran
norities whose rights ofrelion nd eedm of expressin re secred
Inteiew conted wth a forer Jodanan Foeign minister in Amman,Decemer 8, 011
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On a prlel bai the outlne of a roadmap for n openg to the Alevi
viewed a aherent of a form of Ilam inuenced by Shiim nd Sm wa a
major apect of the Naon ty project. The Turkih govement
ponored a erie of workhop to adre Alevi iue hat perined to
nng e houe the tatu of worip place, openg a pecil ititute
to train Alevi eri nd upp orng nncially e operaional cot of the
houe Neverhele, the openg ha not gained any action due to lak
of genuine engagement wih Alevi orgazaon exept fo EyZ Beyt widely
een a in bed wih the Turkih govement. Alevi remned largely kepc
to e project a evidenced in a ey conducted by he Eurain Publi
Reerch Center whih howed that 339 perent uppored that they re
trget of perment dicmination, wle only percent believed at he
Turih govement w inere wih it Naonl Uty rojet. 67
The Turkih govement iitil pln to reach out to the Kur nd e
Alevi led to increaing ticim of the project by all egment of the Turih
meia nd the poitical oup, u de-generaing e iiti debate, d
prompng the Trkih govement to abandn it rhetorc ab out the Naon
Uiy poject.
Coming to today ritic ituaon n Sya nd the onicting relaonp of
Turkey wth it once cloe lly there are increaing woe hat the former i
in poion to exploit the Krih nd Alevi rd to create intabiliy to e
latter' dometic ont. The inability of Turkey to apply e "ero
probleınconict poiy wih neibor to it o Southeat with the
promoon of the aonl nty project may prove, der he urrent
rcmtance, dementl to it natonl nteret The Trkih leaderip'
recent eat to increae it ıit preence acro the Syrian boder may
be nufient to deter Sya d Irn om ubveively upporng Krih
The surey was pushed y Turish daiy Chuye wich also repoed that Alevswere suspios aut the Turkish gvernment's National Unity ojet.
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seprasts, while the Trsh prime isters late vember 211 apl
fr explsins nd massacres against Alevis in the Eastern prvince f Dersim
in 197-199 was perceived as prvave ant t e Alevis.
Fr a mprehensive peing, Turkey needs t have preeded t himplementatin f effective pliies that wuld have ver the lng-term
imprved the ecnmic plicl nd cltrl life f Trkeys Kurds nd
Alevis , therefre preventing their explitan by ren players
Te interview f President Assad at the Sy TV n Augst 21, 211 sent a
cncrete message t all direcs h Trkey being csidered as the main
recipient accrdng t wh The cnsequenes ny tn gnst Syr
wuld exeed by r wht they cld pssbly ber r tw resns. Frst) the
gepltcl psn Syr nd send the Syrn pbltes nly sme
whh they wuld be ble t ber The untres tht mke threts re
themseles wek pltclly nd slly They re wek) muh weker thn
n the ps 6
Lking at Trkey s dmes nt, ne nt help but see that nwadays it
has t de h the lndsape faces nt aesthetically but pragmaclly tmeet emerng challenges
Syria State T, nteriew f Syria President ash r al-Assad Augst 21, 201.
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D JORDN'S POLITICL ND ILOMTIC
POSTURE
In the oen tıltuos politics of the Midle East, the Hsheite King dom
of Jordn has adtionlly steered a cauos nd successl corse in
inte1ational relations lrgely relng on a coservative foreign pocy nd the
ceıenng of relations with reonl nd inteational states nd instutios.
The ıoentm events n Tuisia