by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (P Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Princeton University Presented at Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit @ Fort Monmouth October 3, 2014 Opportunity to Create Well-paying Jobs, Save Lives, Injuries and Family Disruptions, and Make Money by Establishing a World-class Center for Research, Certification and Commercialization of Automated Vehicles (aka SmartDrivingCars)
Transcript
by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (P Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Princeton University
Presented at
Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit @ Fort Monmouth October 3, 2014
Opportunity to Create Well-paying Jobs,
Save Lives, Injuries and Family Disruptions, and Make Money
by Establishing a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization of Automated Vehicles (aka SmartDrivingCars)
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation
Level 0 (No automation) The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times.
Level 1 (Function-specific automation) The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control
Level 2 (Combined function automation) Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations. Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation. Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering
Level 3 (Limited self-driving) Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions. Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control. Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car
Level 4 (Full self-driving automation) Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip. The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied. Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system Smar
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Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
• Observation: – Other States are have begun to jump on this…
• California & Google’s Self-Driving Car Initiative – Turned to focus investment on intelligence automation of the individual vehicle
» letting the infrastructure to be optimized for the conventional driver.. Brilliant!!
• Enables “Start small; grow fast”
• Florida: Automated car takes test drive on Selmon Expressway
• Michigan: University of Michigan to build $6.5M track to test automated cars in Ann Arbor
• Texas TTI Developing New Automated and Connected Transportation Test Bed
• California NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center Ames
• Action Item: – Get New Jersey and the NJ/NY/PA Region nvolved by Leveraging the Ft. Monmouth
Facility. Create the Job, Improve mobility safety and the environment. Create the specifications and certifications for Automated Collision Avoidance Technology and eventually driverless vehicles.
• Observation: – NJ Transit and many private companies operate one of the most extensive
bus transit systems in the nation • The MTA and SEPTA also operate extensive bus transit systems
– Average Nationwide Bus Casualty & Liability Expense in 2011 = $8,069/Bus
• Action Item: – Create the specifications and certifications for Automated Collision
Avoidance Technology for buses so as to substantially reduce the expected Bus Casualty & Liability exposure of NJ Transit and the other bus operators in the region and around the country.
This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Bus transit Companies NJ’s and the Regions Bus (and Truck) Operators have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.
Why New Jersey?
• Observation: – New Jersey is the home of NAHQ of:
• Mercedes, BMW, Subaru, Jaguar, Volvo & Ferrari
• Action Item: – Create an environment that is conducive for these companies
(and others) to successfully: enhance, test and accelerate the adoption of their versions of SmartDrivingCars This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Car Companies NJ’s Car Manufacturers thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.
Why New Jersey?
• Observation: – New Jersey is the home to major Wireless Communications companies:
• Verizon Wireless, Qualcomm (regional office)
– Only persons not engaged in driving should be consuming the services of these companies in a car.
– > 80% of the time there is only one person in a car. • Communication services to this “80%” market should be restricted to times
when “NHTSA Level 3” automation is available.
• Action Item: – Create the SmartDrivingTechnology that is certified for “NHTSA Level
3” automation for more & more Cars and “Lane-Miles” This creates an evermore favorable business opportunity for Wireless Service Providers. NJ’s Wireless Service Providers thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.
Why New Jersey?
• Observation: – New Jersey is the home to major Insurance:
• Munich Re NA, NJ Manufacturers, Chubb Group, Prudential, Selective
• Action Item: – Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization
Environment : To Develop SmartDrivingTechnology (SDT) such that:
- Expected {AccidentLiability w SDT }} This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Insurers NJ’s Insurance Companies thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.
Autonomous Car Benefits to New Jersey
Amount Item Units
-50% Reduced chance of dying in a car accident Per Collision Avoidance (Level 2) car
~ 1 Lives Saved Per 1,000 cars equipped with Level 2 (= # new cars sold each day in New Jersey)
~300 Lives Saved Per year in NJ (Widespread Level 2 adoption)
-50% Reduced chance of a collision Per Collision Avoidance (Level 2) car
~ 1 Injury Avoided Per 15 cars equipped with Level 2
~20,000 Injuries Avoided Per year in NJ (Widespread Level 2 adoption)
>$125 Self insurance payments Per year per NJ driver
>$250 Insurance discount Per year per NJ driver
$1.25B Reduced Insurance Claims Per year in NJ (Widespread Level 2 adoption)
-50% Reduced Energy Widespread autonomousTaxi Deployment
5X increase Ridership on NJ Transit Widespread autonomousTaxi Deployment
1,000 Well-paying jobs Directly connected with the Center
100,000 Well-paying jobs Created around the Center to implement Commercialization of the technology
Terrible News! Claims are going through the roof!
2011 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
Source FTA NTD
Casualty and Liability Amount
Vehicle-related
$483,076,010.
Total Buses
59,871
Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus
$8,069/Bus/Year
The Cost of Installing an Active Collision Avoidance System
on a Bus Could be Recovered in as Little as One Year Through Reductions in
Casualty and Liability Claims
The Initial Project:
Princeton University (with American Public Transit Association (APTA), Greater Cleveland Transit, and
insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA)
Focused on
Research, Certification and Commercialization of
SmartDriving Technology for Buses
Pending $5M Grant from
Federal Transit Administration
Why Fort Monmouth?
• Observation:
– Ft Monmouth may well be one of the most hospitable sites for those with a vested interest in SmartDrivingTechnology to advance their intentions.
• Action Item:
– Create a Testing & Certification Environment for use by Those with a Vested Interest to collaboratively transition their products from Research to Full Commercialization
The “Visionaries” FMERA:
Vision for World-Class Advanced Technology Center @ The Fort
Princeton University: Facilitating FMERA’s Vision with a World-Class
Center for Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars (&Trucks & Buses) (RCCS) (pronounced “R Sis”)
The Team
The “Players” to be “Drafted”
The “Venue” The McAfee Center and The Fort’s Roadways
The “Coaching Staff” CARTS
Corporation for Autonomous Roadway & Transit Systems
Automakers Suppliers Facilitators Insurance Universities Public Sector
Mercedes Benz (HQ-NJ) Continental Bertram Capital NJ Manufacturers Princeton NJ DMV
BMW (HQ-NJ) Bosch Verizon Munich Re Monmouth NJ Transit
