AND NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS!

Climate Change:

We CAN reduce the CO2 and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphereto safer levels

The solutions !

November 2009

That’s ALL the WORLD’s

energy

November 2009

NOT including:CCS,Nuclear,Other ‘exotic’ sources

The ‘WWS’ solution:WindWaterSolar

HUGE RESOURCESAVAILABLE

AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGY

COST EFFECTIVE

POLITICS BIGGEST

OBSTACLE

TidalGeothermalHydro

WindWave

Solar Roof PVConcentratedPV Power

NEEDED 11.5 TW

9%

51%

40%

85%

READILY AVAILABLE 580 TW

NB: Australian coal is cheaper than US power.

The REAL problem!

Vested interests and confusion/apathy among ‘ordinary people’ – leading to lack of political will.

Australian Solutions! The big picture: Solar and Wind supplemented by

Hydro Geothermal Ocean (tidal and wave)

and perhaps ? Gas Nuclear (?) Coal with CCS (??)

Australian Solutions - solar!

Australian Solutions - solar! The yellow

square is about 125 km square

Ample for ALL of Australia’s energy. (At only 10% collection efficiency)

[A city uses around 1 PJ per day]

35 PJ per day (=400 GW)That is about 250 Hazelwoods!

Australian Solutions - wind! “A network of land-based 2.5 MW turbines …

operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply over 40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity”

Global potential for wind-generated electricity: Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya, and Juha Kiviluomac

Australia’s86 PWh = 310,000 PJ/yr

(or 850 per day. - Current total energy useis 16 PJ/day)

Annual

Global potential for wind-generated electricity Lua, McElroy, Kiviluomac, Harvard & Finland, April09

The Solutions! – World wind powerAustralia2008approx1,500 MW(14th place)

NB: 2.862 means 2,862

Australian Solutions! Introducing: Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE)

Five phase study to achieve zero emissions by 2020: Stationary Energy* (mostly electricity generation) Transport Industrial processes and export Buildings Land Use (including agriculture & forestry)

* Stationary energy report available now at www.beyondzeroemissions.org (free) or buy today!

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Zero Carbon Australia 2020

A plan for repowering Australia with 100% renewable energy in ten years

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Key Questions:• Who are Beyond Zero Emissions?

• Zero Carbon Australia Plan• What are we calling for and why?

– 100% renewable energy by 2020• How can we get there?

– Wind and Baseload Solar Thermal• Can it be done?

– Yes. Fully modelled and costed, using existing commercial technologies

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Oil and Gas Coal exportersGenerators

The CAN'T DO campaign

The CAN'T DO MANTRA“Renewable energy cant supply baseload power”“Renewable energy is too expensive”“Renewable energy will wreck the economy”“Renewable energy will cost jobs”

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The ZCA 2020 ‘CAN DO’ team

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"This report will help shift the climate debate to focus on energy; security; affordability; export and of course opportunity”

Professor Robin Batterham,President, Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering,

formerly Chief Scientist of Australia

“We have the resources. We need the will.”

Dr. Peter Doherty, Nobel Laureate, School of Medicine, University of Melbourne

"Australia has one of the world's best solar energy resource, ... The Zero Carbon Australia Plan is based on up-to-date and sound information and provides quality insights on how a country well-endowed in renewable resources can transition to a solar and wind economy.”

Cédric PhilibertRenewable Energy DivisionInternational Energy Agency

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The CAN DO Campaign• Accepts current climate science evidence on what has

to be done & by when• Uses only existing commercially available technology.

We have all the tools NOW• Meets Australia’s total energy demand• with 100% Renewable Energy by 2020

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FIVE REPORTS:

Stationary energy Transport

IndustryBuildings Agriculture

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Carbon Budget 2010-2050Why ten years?

Meinshausen, et al. (2009): Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2oC. Nature 458, 30 April 2009

SEE ALSO www.PRIMAP.org

“Limiting CO2 emissions to 1 trillion tonnes* by 2050 gives us a 75% chance of keeping global warming below 2oC”

* 2000 - 2050

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Why ten years? Carbon Budget 2010-2050

Most of Europe

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Al Gore calls for 100% clean electricity and independence from foreign oil within ten years

“a political promise to do something 40 years from now is universally ignored

because everyone knows that it's meaningless. Ten years is about the

maximum time that we as a nation can hold a steady aim and hit our target.”

Why ten years?

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Thomas Friedman: Three reasons for going renewable -1. End dependence on, and financing

of, the “dictators and terrorists in the Middle East”

2. ‘Peak oil’ will mean higher prices, yet more political tension. If we divide the total of the world’s oil reserves by the rate at which WE are using them we get about 12 years (7 for USA use)

3. And to save us from a climate catastrophe!!

Why ten years?

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Traditional Power Generation

Generating electrical energy

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Generating electrical energy

67% Fossil

92%

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Concentrated Solar Thermal

Parabolic Troughs Power Towers

Generating electrical energy – from the Sun

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(52 Kilowatts)

Generating electrical energy – from the Sun

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SEGS Plants354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984(Solar Electric Generating Stations)

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Generating electrical energy – from the Sun

290oC

600oC

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Solar Two – 1996 - 1999Run by the U.S. DoE, Sandia National Laboratories, Lockheed Martin10MW turbine, 3 hrs storage

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Baseload Solar Thermal Power

Andasol 1,2, Extresol 1, SAMCA 1, Spain, operating now, 7.5 hours energy storage

Torresol Gemasolar Spain, on line early 2011, 15 hours energy storage

24 hour Dispatchable Power

Generating electrical energy – from the Sun

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Solar Thermal StorageGenerating electrical energy – from the Sun

Molten salt heat storage tanks

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What's happening in Spain?• 2,440MW operating or under construction to be

completed over the next 3 years (1½ Hazelwoods) • = $20 billion worth of investment • 15,000 MW 'in the pipeline'

Generating electrical energy – from the Sun

42% renewable by 2020

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50MW – Spain100MW – Nevada150MW – California

Generating electrical energy – from the Sun

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To Supply 60% of Australia’s energy Each module generates up to 220MW Ability to store energy and dispatch as needed, day or night A plant or Solar Region will be made up of 19 modules and will

have a total capacity of 3,500MW There will be 12 plants distributed across Australia (→ 42 GW total)

Zero Carbon Australia Solar Thermal Power 220 MW Module 3500 MW Solar Region

Generating electrical energy – from the Sun

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ZCA2020 Wind Power

And the other 40%?

Generating electrical energy – from wind

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ZCA2020 Wind Power• 40% of Australia’s total Energy

• 6,400 turbines

• 7.5 MW Enercon E126

(48,000 MW)

• 23 geographically diverse regions

Generating electrical energy – from wind

Aus 48,000 MW

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Generating electrical energy – from wind

World Wind Energy Association 2010Aus 48,000 MW

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World Wind Power project growth• China 150,000 MW wind by 2020o Three Gorges of Wind Project

• Denmark: 20% now (3,500 MW)o 50 % wind by 2025

• Sweden 4,000 MWEnercon Farm1100 Turbines

Generating electrical energy – from wind

Aus 48,000 MW

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Energy Efficiency Opportunities

Using less electrical energy

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Using less electrical energy

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Nissan Patrol Capacity 517 litres per 100km

Energy Efficiency in Transport –

Siemens Combino tramCapacity 19016 litres per 100km (Oil Energy Equiv)

Using less electrical energy

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Electricity and Energy Demand Using less electrical energy

Oil

Gas

Bioenergy

Electricity

Solar PV & HW

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100% Renewable Energy for Australia - three main components

Image of pylon/tower

Concentrated solar thermal power

Wind power Upgraded electricity grid- and biofuel

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Renewable electrical energy

100% Renewable Stationary EnergyBio, Hydro 2%

Wind 40%

Solar 60%

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“The review finds that the transmission scenario proposed is technically feasible in

terms of capacity and reliability. In addition, the proposed transmission uses mature technology

with proven capability around the world.”

SKM Review of ZCA2020 transmission

The National GridRenewable electrical energy

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Forget the “you can’t transmit power that far” mantra

HVDC has been developed in the last decade and has solved the problem of long distance transmission

HVDC High Voltage Direct Current

Renewable electrical energy

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HVDCHigh Voltage Direct Current

Transmits more power on a given line

Doesn’t lose power through radiation

Enables different systems to be interconnected

Can be used over 1000’s km rather than 100’s

Renewable electrical energy

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Simplified illustration of the advantage of HVDC over HVAC

Renewable electrical energy

AC only at peak voltage for a short time DC at peak voltage constantly

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HVDC is more cost effective over long distances

Renewable electrical energy

AC

DC

1000 km 2000 km

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Australia's renewable energy grid: 2020Australia’s Renewable Energy Grid 2020

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Resource Requirements

Renewable electrical energy

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Labor Requirements

Renewable electrical energy

140 thousand

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Achievability: Jobs In Context

140 thousand

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Enercon Viana Do Costelo Wind Turbine blade and tower factories Portugal250 towers per year 600 Blades 400 Jobs

Renewable electrical energy

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Solar Thermal Cost Reduction Trajectory

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Safe Climate a Bargain at 3% of GDP

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Economic Cost325TWh/yr electricity

Net present value 2010-2040(real 2010 AUS$ Billion)

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Cost to Economy – all energy

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Zero Carbon Australia - Conclusion• Must be done to secure our climate and future• Technically doable

• ‘Shovel ready’ using off the shelf technologies• Fully Resourced

• We have the materials• Jobs rich

• Fully Costed • 3% of GDP for 10 years • Saving over 30 years

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Zero Carbon Australia Pipe Dream?

Or doable dream of a realistic, sustainable future for our children?

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1 m2 mirrorzero emissions

OR

20 tonnes of coal72 tonnes CO2

half the jobs

OUR CHOICEFOR THE NEXT

30 YEARS

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