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And Picking Pockets at the Pickpockets Hanging

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$1,705,000,000 per year in the U.S. $4,118 per person

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Gary Becker (1968) argued that crime is rational. Others followed suitBlock and Heineke (1975), Polinsky and Shavell (1999), Rubin, Dezhbakhsh, and Shephard (2002), This supports the Criminal Deterrence Hypothesis: Punishment Crime

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While it is true that on the current margin, some criminals seem to respond to punishment, Is it appropriate to model all criminal behavior as rational? That is, how many of our criminals are rational? Would punishment ever lead to a satisfactory reduction in crime? What alternatives to punishment might have a larger effect?

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Marginal Cost / Benefit Number of Crimes MB MC Crimes*

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Marginal Cost / Benefit Number of Crimes MB MC Crimes* I wont get caught.

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Marginal Cost / Benefit Number of Crimes MB Crimes* Anger dominates rationality

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Positive estimate of arrest and conviction Thought about the possibility of apprehension Some idea of the likely punishment Thought about the likely punishment at time of decision to commit crime

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Perceived Invincibility Alcohol / Drugs Lack of Information Rebellion and Thrill Seeking Punishment as Right of Passage Formal Punishment is Small Fraction of Cost to Criminal Career loss, Relationship loss Embarrassment Cost of time

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Murder and non-negligent manslaughter 67% Aggravated assault 58% Forcible rape 52% All violent crime 47%

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Drug Trafficking 73% Murder, Burglary, and Weapons Offenses 67% The lowest rate is for assault, which is 41%

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Erlich (1975) estimated that 1 execution prevents 7-8 murders Bowers and Pierce (1980) estimated that 1 execution causes 2-3 murders Available Data Are Aggregated Lack Important Variables Miss Unreported Crimes Involve Spurious Correlation between Enforcement Measures and Crime Counts Does more detection drive higher crime rates or do higher crime rates drive more detection? Miss Location and Crime-Type Shifting Results are not robust across time periods and locations

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What type of crime were you arrested for? (Note: If you did not commit the crime that you were arrested for, please reply to each question based on your knowledge of those who do commit such crimes.) How much time did you spend planning and carrying out this incident? If you had a legal job when the crime was committed, how much were you earning? _____ per _____ (hour/year/etc.) In what year? ________ How much do you think you could be earning now if you werent involved in crime? _____ per _____ (hour/year/etc.) What was the last grade in school that you completed? When you committed this crime, how likely did you think it was that you would be caught? very likely d) I did not think I would be caught. somewhat likelye) I did not think about it. possible, but not likely When you committed the crime, did you know what the likely punishment would be if you were caught? I knew exactly what the punishment would be. I had a good idea. I had some idea. I had no idea, or I thought I knew but I was wrong. I didnt think about it. Were the following items available, and if not, would they have prevented the crime? Available?Prevented? yes noyes no maybe drug rehabilitation father living with you evening/weekend sports programs awareness of punishment if caught awareness of likelihood of being caught legal employment death penalty for this crime Is there any other type of program, punishment, or detection method that would have prevented you from committing this crime? If the following items existed, would the crime have occurred without them? Existed?Caused? yes noyes no maybe drug use friends who were a bad influence financial needs Boredom violence in TV/Movies you watched Is there anything else that might have caused this crime?

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When you committed this crime, how likely did you think it was that you would be caught? ALLDeadlySexRobberyAssaultBurglaryDrugsDUIChild SupForgery Very likely0.170.110.100.050.400.140.190.200.170.43 Somewhat likely0.070.050.000.04 0.060.150.180.170.00 Possible, but not likely0.130.110.100.130.000.170.190.090.170.14 I did not think I would be caught.0.210.190.200.320.080.190.230.180.00 I did not think about it. 0.420.540.600.460.480.430.250.360.500.43 When you committed the crime, did you know what the likely punishment would be if you were caught? ALLDeadlySexRobberyAssaultBurglaryDrugsDUIChild SupForgery I knew exactly what the punishment would be.0.220.160.100.250.040.210.250.360.500.43 I had a good idea.0.130.080.000.140.160.080.250.090.170.00 I had some idea.0.110.080.200.090.160.140.110.090.000.14 I had no idea, or thought I knew but was wrong. 0.180.140.500.200.280.190.130.000.170.14 I didnt think about it. 0.350.540.200.320.360.380.260.450.170.29 Totally incognizant of one or both factors0.760.890.900.880.720.760.64 0.670.71

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Minor increases have accomplished little in the past Major increases strike ethical and legal chords Cruel and unusual punishment is prohibited by the 8 th and 14 th Amendments Perceived Invincibility is Overarching Reason for Imperviousness

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NEGATIVE INFLUENCE CRIMINALS EXPOSED (%) GEN. POP. EXPOSED (%) EXPOSURE HELPED CAUSE CRIME (%)** Recent drug use0.660.060.66 Financial needs0.530.14*0.86 Friends who were a bad influence0.55n/a0.80 Violence in TV / Movies0.37n/a0.33 Boredom 0.41n/a0.89 * Percent below poverty level. ** Expressed as a percentage of those exposed. POSITIVE INFLUENCE CRIMINALS EXPOSED (%) GEN. POP. EXPOSED (%) ABSENCE HELPED CAUSE CRIME (%)* Father living with you0.400.780.46 High school education0.510.82n/a Drug rehabilitation available0.52n/a0.41 Evening / weekend sports programs0.64n/a0.41 Legal employment 0.720.760.65 * Expressed as a percentage of those without the influence.

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Education Increases Opportunity Cost of Crime Provides Alternative Income Sources Takes People Off the Streets Can Convey Morals / Ethics Can Teach Dispute Resolution Techniques and How to Deal with Peaked Emotions Can Teach Repercussions of Drugs and Crime Community Programs Drug Rehabilitation Innovative Drug Policy Concentrate on the Economy, which has larger effect on crime

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