Andrew Lippman, MIT Media Lab

lip@mit.eduMarch, 2005

Viral Innovation

Waves

Acute costs

Diffuse benefits

Abrupt change resulting from the simultaneous action of disparate elements that get us over hurdles no joint venture or individual can leap.

Solves the “You can’t get there from problem” through implicit (or competitive) cooperation.

Communications: Viral

Human Augmentation: Bionics

Fabrication: Molecules to cities

Waves

Same Things Better

vs

Utterly New

Being Digital (1995)

HDTVDigital BroadcastDBS

TiVoNapsterBlogsWikis

Waves make changes

Same Things Better

vs

Utterly New (?)

Being Wireless (2002)

PCSSatellite Radio802.11

M2MMobile MediaAmbience and position

Open Applications

Viral Radio

CapacityBandwidth/Noden

CapacityBandwidth/Node

~nn

Viral radio is scalable, incremental, and value-adding.

Intelligence is at the edges, costs are low, systems are agile.

Digital Radio = Intelligent Radio

Interference is a legal idea, not a physical oneMore radios means more communications, not lessMore radios mean less power, not moreBuildings and barriers help, rather than hurt

Digital radio reverses 85 years of design

Digital Radio = Intelligent Radio

There are no receivers (transmitting costs less)There are no channels

When in doubt, add radios

Unlicensed:Favors property owner vs license holder

Open radio lets users become inventors

Radio communication normally usesone transmitter and one receiver.Throughput is understood.New systems use multiple transmitand/or receive antennas, E.g., Blast,COFDM

AB

ABA

BA

BA

BCreates Cells on-the-fly

Cells Without Towers

Radio Magic

Radio Magic

Same Things Better

vs

Utterly New

Viral Radio (2005)

3G2.5G802.11

Hotspots/WarchalkingMesh/AdhocSkype phones

Transparent

Same Things Better

vs

Utterly New

Being Viral (2005)

CentralizedVertical (Rigid)Slow

ScalableIncrementalValue-adding

Transparent

Same Things Better

vs

Utterly New

Being Viral (2005)

CentralizedVertical (Rigid)Slow

GrassrootsAgileLow-risk

Transparent

Viral

Radio 802H 802.11 3G

80 10 75 20

100 90 90 0

50 40 50 10

230 140 215 30

Scalability

Incremental

Value-adding

“Virality Index”

From home to market

Unreliability can be a feature

Asynchrony can be a feature

2002: Mayhem Protocol

2003: Local Intelligence

802.11(HiFi)

Lippman, Reed, Bletsas, Christakos, Vyzovitis, Cooley, Li

Education: The learners are the innovators, infrastructure makes the system rigid

Communications: The intelligence is now in the phones, will the carriers be marginalized?

Healthcare: Patients as a group already are more up-to-date than their physician; the average psychologist reads no more than one journal per month

Viral Possibilities

Nations gain first-world status by focus and central planning; they become leaders by diffused imagination

Legitimate:EconomicCentralized(Scalable)

Viral:Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility

Lippman’s Helix

After Charles Fine

Legitimate:EconomicCentralized(Scalable)

Viral:Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility

When?Base Techs

Going Legitimate

The magic is when technology is in sync with society

E-BaySMSSkype

Surprises and speeds

Long lead time

Ultra-Rapid takeup

SMS Message Volume

1998 2001 2002 2003

China

Other countries such as US, developing countries

Intercarrier capability

1 bil

300 bil

50 bil

100 bil

150 bil

200 bil

Blackberry Growth

1999 2001 2002 2003

GPRS integration

CDMA, iDen

E-mail Access

50,000

1 mil

100,000

500,000

This is a device!

Usage of IM applications

1973 1990 1996

ICQ

AOL buys ICQand creates AIM

19981980

Creation of talk

# of

use

rs

2001

iChat

2003

SkypeYTalk allows multi-party messaging

Skype

Peer-to-peer VoIP application

First released October 2003

7 million users after one year, 25 million today

Allows instant messaging as well as voice calls

Closed architecture, but viral adoption

Communications: Viral

Human Augmentation: Bionics

Fabrication: Molecules to cities

Waves

Size matters

Fabrication

10-X: making you ten times faster, smarter…

Bionics

Viral Ideas

Speed of change

Far Horizons

Three Parts

Innovation today happens at the edges

It happens surprisingly fast

Ideas that you can see and breakthroughs you can’t predict