Page 1
Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Friday, December 02, 2016
CONTENTS
Market Overview
Daily Analysis with fundamental and technical outlook
US Dollar
Indian Rupee
Euro
Sterling Pound
Japanese Yen
Important events for the day
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Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Friday, December 02, 2016
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on 1-Dec-16
INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM
NIFTY 8192.9 -0.38 2.9 -5.0
SENSEX 26559.9 -0.35 2.7 -4.7
DJIA 19191.9 0.36 0.6 7.0
S&P 2191.08 -0.35 -0.62 3.62
FTSE 6752.9 -0.5 -61.3 -0.8
KOSPI 1983.8 0.7 0.6 0.1
BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 -4.7 -5.0
NIKKEI 18513.1 27.9 -0.1 7.8
Source: Reuters
COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on 1-Dec-16
INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM
NYMEX CRUDE - $/BBL 51.06 3.3 6.5 9.4
COMEX GOLD - $/OZ 1174.80 0.7 -0.3 -9.9
COMEX SILVER - $/OZ 16.43 0.1 -0.2 -10.4
LME COPPER (3M) -$/TONNE 5791.00 -0.6 0.9 -3.2
Source: Reuters
CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on 1-Dec-16
CURRENCY LAST CHANGE WOW MOM
DX 101.04 -0.46 -0.65 3.31
USDINR 68.23 0.53 0.76 -2.31
EURUSD 1.066 0.70 1.01 -3.69
GBPUSD 1.2591 0.69 1.14 2.78
USDJPY 114.08 -0.32 0.69 8.73
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – USDINR
Source: Reuters
Daily INR= 11-11-2016 - 01-12-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, INR=,
01-12-2016, 68.5850, 68.5879, 68.2979, 68.3635,
-0.2246, (-0.33%)
Price
/USD
67
67.5
68
68.5
69
68.3635
11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 01November 2016
MARKET OVERVIEW
Asian markets are trading on a mixed note as investors’ book-
profits from yesterday’s rally after the OPEC members agreed to
cut production from January’17 by around 1.2 million barrels per
day bpd for the first time since 2008 in a bid to support prices.
US DOLLAR INDEX (USD) After trading higher in the last few days, the US Dollar Index
weakened by 0.46 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The fall
in the currency was mainly due to the disappointing release of
manufacturing and unemployment claims data from the nation.
Americans who filed for unemployment benefits have raised
considerable since June, indicating a possible pause in progress in
the labor market. Markets are pretty cautious as this data comes
ahead of Friday's monthly jobs report, seen by many investors as
the clearest read on the health of the job market.
However, markets are still rejoicing the decision of the OPEC
members of cutting oil output in a bid to support prices. The
agreement came despite huge political hurdles. Moreover, in a
recent comment the US Fed policymaker Loretta J. Mester spoke
in favor of raising interest rates. She said that postponing them
for too long would raise risks of recession and financial instability.
INDIAN RUPEE (USDINR)
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.53 percent yesterday
following gains in Asian market currencies as the markets
discounted the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries of agreeing to cut oil output. This boosted the
market confidence which led to buying of INR.
Moreover, outflow of $25 billion of FCNR deposits were eased by
suspected intervention by RBI through state-owned banks which
further acted as a positive factor. There is a rising speculation that
the Reserve Bank of India will lower its repo rate by 25 basis
points to 6 percent in its next month monetary policy meeting; all
thanks to lower inflation rate.
All the above factors kept the USDINR strong which made an
intraday high of 68.17 and closed at 68.22 levels on Thursday.
OUTLOOK
USDINR is expected to appreciate in today’s trading session as the
disappointing release of manufacturing and unemployment
claims data from the US will keep the DX weak. Moreover, rising
speculation of repo rate cut by the RBI in the next policy meeting
will further act as a positive factor and boost the demand for the
Indian currency.
Technical Outlook valid for 2-Dec-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
USDINR Dec’16 (NSE) Up 68.30 68.10 68.70 68.90
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Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Friday, December 02, 2016
EURO (EURUSD)
Euro currency traded higher by 0.70 percent yesterday as markets
discounted the robust release of unemployment data from the
zone which fell to a seven-year low at 10 percent. Moreover,
weakness in the DX added to the Euro’s strength. Markets are still
discounting the ECB President’s speech where he warned that
Brexit would be tougher for Britain than Euro-zone and wants
clarity over the negotiation process. He also mentioned about
global economy facing significant political and economic
uncertainties and believes that Euro-zone will survive this
uncertainty; all thanks to its monetary policy. The committee is in
position to address bond scarcity and has flexible programs to
maintain monetary accommodation.
OUTLOOK
EURINR is expected to trade a bit lower as recent strength in eh
currency will prompt the traders to book profits. Moreover, the
upcoming Italian Referendum which will take place on this Sunday
will prompt the traders to play safe which will keep the Euro weak.
Technical Outlook valid for 2-Dec-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
EURINR Dec’16 (NSE) Sideways 72.65 72.45 73.03 73.20
STERLING POUND (GBPUSD)
In spite of the disappointing release of manufacturing data from
the nation, Sterling pound rose by 0.69 percent yesterday. Reason
behind this surprising upsurge could be attributed to the
announcement by UK government of considering paying for Britain
to access the European single market after Brexit. Brexit Secretary
David Davis told MPs that ministers want to "get the best possible
access for goods and services to the European market" after the
UK has left the bloc and suggested the Government is open to the
possibility of making contributions to the EU to secure that access.
Moreover, OPEC members have come out with a deal to cut
production which has boosted the crude oil prices. Markets have
taken this development into consideration prior to placing any bets
on the Cable because of the impact of oil market on Britain’s
inflation expectation, which is below the target level of BoE.
OUTLOOK
Sterling Pound is expected to trade sideways to higher as the
recent announcement by UK government of considering paying for
Britain to access the European single market after Brexit will keep
the Cable strong. However there is a possibility of profit booking
from yesterday’s strength which can push GBPINR down.
Technical Outlook valid for 2-Dec-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
GBPINR Dec’16 (NSE) Sideways 86.30 86.10 86.65 86.85
Technical Chart – EURINR
Source: Reuters
German Ifo Business Climate remained unchanged
at 110.4 for the month of November’16.
Flash Manufacturing PMI for the month of
November’16 surged to 53.7 as compared to
previous month’s 53.5.
M3 Money Supply for the month of October’16
declined by 4.4 percent.
Technical Chart – GBP/INR
Source: Reuters
Second Estimate GDP for quarter ending
September’16 remained unchanged at 0.5 percent.
Prelim Business Investment for quarter ending
September’16 plunged by 0.9 percent.
Public Sector Net Borrowing for the month of
October’16 decreased to 4.3B from previous months
9.2B.
Daily EURINR= 09-11-2016 - 01-12-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, EURINR=,
01-12-2016, 72.6200, 72.6600, 72.4200, 72.6000,
+0.1100, (+0.15%)
Price
INR
72
72.5
73
73.5
74
74.5
72.6000
09 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 01November 2016
Daily GBPINR=R 30-09-2016 - 01-12-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, GBPINR=R,
01-12-2016, 85.763, 86.435, 85.452, 86.347,
+0.584, (+0.68%)
Price
INR
80
82
84
8686.347
03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28October 2016 November 2016
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Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Friday, December 02, 2016
JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD) Japanese Yen appreciated by more than 0.32 percent yesterday
due to fall in the US Dollar Index. Moreover, increasing fears of
Italian Referendum on 4th December’16 has prompted the traders
to place fresh bets on safe haven Yen.
However, sharp gains were restricted by gains in the energy
sector after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries agreed on its first oil output cut since 2008 in a bid to
support prices. The agreement came despite huge political
hurdles.
OUTLOOK
JPYINR is likely to appreciate as the upcoming Italian Referendum
will prompt the trader to place fresh bets in safe-haven Yen.
Moreover, weakness in the DX will further keep the Yen positive.
Technical Outlook valid for 2-Dec-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
JPYINR Dec’16 (NSE) Down 59.85 59.65 60.25 60.45
Technical Chart – JPY/INR
Source: Reuters
Current Account plunged to 1.48T from 1.98T for
the month of September’16.
Prelim GDP for quarter ending September’16 rose
by 0.5 percent from 0.2 percent in the previous
quarter.
Daily JPYINR=R 20-10-2016 - 01-12-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, JPYINR=R,
01-12-2016, 59.9284, 60.0719, 59.7078, 59.7722,
-0.1353, (-0.23%)
Price
INR
60
61
62
63
64
59.7722
24 31 07 14 21 28October 2016 November 2016
Economic indicators to be released on 2-Dec-16
INDICATOR COUNTRY TIME (IST) ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS IMPACT
Spanish Unemployment Change Euro 1:30pm - -25.8K 44.7K Medium
Construction PMI UK 3:00pm - 52.3 52.6 High
Average Hourly Earnings m/m US 7:00pm - 0.2% 0.4% High
Non-Farm Employment Change US 7:00pm - 165K 161K High
Unemployment Rate US 7:00pm - 4.9% 4.9% High
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks US 7:15pm - - - Medium
Page 5
Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Friday, December 02, 2016
Research Team
Heena Imtiaz Naik
Research Associate
Currency
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104
Prathamesh Mallya
Chief Analyst
Non-agri Commodity & Currency
[email protected]
(022) 3935 8134 Extn :6134
Harsh Rawat
Technical Analyst-Currency
[email protected]
(022) 3935 8141 Extn: 6141
Kaynat Chainwala
Research Analyst
[email protected]
(022) 3935 8136 Extn :6136
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