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Chief Executive Cynthia Carroll presented at the UBS European Conference in London. You can find out more about Anglo American here: http://www.angloamerican.com/ http://www.facebook.com/angloamerican http://www.twitter.com/angloamerican http://www.youtube.com/angloamerican http://www.flickr.com/photos/angloamerican http://www.linkedin.com/company/anglo-american
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18
UBS EUROPEAN CONFERENCE 15 November 2011 Cynthia Carroll, Chief Executive
Transcript
Page 1: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

UBS EUROPEAN CONFERENCE15 November 2011Cynthia Carroll, Chief Executive

Page 2: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

2

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

Disclaimer: This presentation has been prepared by Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) and comprises the written materials/slides for a presentation concerning Anglo American. By attending this presentation and/or reviewing the slides you agree to be bound by the following conditions.

This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares in Anglo American. Further, it does not constitute a recommendation by Anglo American or any other party to sell or buy shares in Anglo American or any other securities. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Anglo American or persons acting on their behalf are qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements.

Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this presentation, including, without limitation, those regarding Anglo American’s financial position, business and acquisition strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives relating to Anglo American’s products, production forecasts and reserve and resource positions), are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Anglo American, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Anglo American’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which Anglo American will operate in the future. Important factors that could cause Anglo American’s actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, levels of actual production during any period, levels of global demand and commodity market prices, mineral resource exploration and development capabilities, recovery rates and other operational capabilities, the availability of mining and processing equipment, the ability to produce and transport products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, the availability of sufficient credit, the effects of inflation, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental authorities such as changes in taxation or safety, health, environmental or other types of regulation in the countries where Anglo American operates, conflicts over land and resource ownership rights and such other risk factors identified in Anglo American’s most recent Annual Report. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Anglo American expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking (except as required by applicable law, the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the “Takeover Code”), the UK Listing Rules, the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the Financial Services Authority, the Listings Requirements of the securities exchange of the JSE Limited in South Africa, the SWX Swiss Exchange, the Botswana Stock Exchange and the Namibian Stock Exchange and any other applicable regulations) to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in Anglo American’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Anglo American will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share.

Certain statistical and other information about Anglo American included in this presentation is sourced from publicly available third party sources. As such it presents the views of those third parties, but may not necessarily correspond to the views held by Anglo American.

No Investment Advice

This presentation has been prepared without reference to your particular investment objectives, financial situation, taxation position and particular needs. It is important that you view this presentation in its entirety. If you are in any doubt in relation to these matters, you should consult your stockbroker, bank manager, solicitor, accountant, taxation adviser or other independent financial adviser (where applicable, as authorised under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 in the UK, or in South Africa, under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002.).

Page 3: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

3

• A consistent strategy and simplified organisation delivering results

Long term fundamentals remain robust. Anglo American is uniquely positioned to benefit with a strong exposure to the late cycle development of the emerging economies

• Delivering shareholders value through recent acquisition and disposal transactions

Well placed to deliver future growth through material organic growth pipeline

HIGHLIGHTS

1

2

3

4

Page 4: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

4

A CONSISTENT STRATEGY AND SIMPLIFIED ORGANISATION DELIVERING RESULTS

(1) Core revenue split (2) Source: AME, Brook Hunt - a Wood Mackenzie company, Johnson Matthey. Thermal Coal represents share of internationally traded market, nickel and copper represent share of world mined production (3) Productivity based on material moved, mined or processed per operational headcount, excluding projects. Kumba refers to Sishen only (4) Source: AME, Brook Hunt - a Wood Mackenzie company, Anglo American Platinum. Represents % of attributable production in lower half of the cost curve (5) In 2008 all Nickel operations in H2

China’s share of global consumption 2010 (%)

23%

Diamonds

11%

Platinum

Nickel2%

Copper

16%Thermal Coal

11%

Met Coal11%

Iron Ore& Manganese

26%

Thermal CoalImports 11%

Palladium 21%

Platinum 25%

Nickel 33%

Copper 38%

Steel 41%

Iron Ore 54%

Met Coal 62%100%80%60%40%20%0%

Platinum

Nickel(5)

Copper

Export HardCoking Coal

Export Iron Ore

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150Copper

Platinum

Kumba

Met Coal

Q2 11

Q1 11

201020092008

20082011

20082011

20082011

20092011

2011

Well diversified portfolio(1)

Structurally attractive commodities(2)

Improving productivity performance(3)

Delivering commodity positions in lower half of cost curves(4)

Page 5: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

5

78%

82%

84%

85%

100%

Expressways (Km)

Steel for ship building

Urban floor space

Car output

Truck output

LONG TERM DEMAND GROWTH REMAINS HEALTHY

(1) The analysis excludes Taiwan. Source: NBS, CEIC, Anglo American Analysis

Chinese Regional Urbanisation(1) 2009 China’s expected growth 2010 to 2018

Xun River

Huang River

Yangtze River

50-60%60%-70%

70%-80%>80%

<50%

Sichuan

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Liaoning

Hebei

Shandong

Fujian

Jiangxi

Anhui

Hubei

Hunan

Guangdong

Guangxi

Shanghai

Henan

Shanxi

Hainan

InnerMongolia

Shaanxi

Ningxia

Gansu

Qinghai

Guizhou

Yunnan

Tibet

Xinjiang

Jiangsu

Zhejiang

Tianjin

Beijing

Hong KongMacau

Chongqing

Page 6: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Xstrata

Vale

Rio Tinto

BHP

AngloAmerican

Investment¹ Consumption² Late cycle³ Other4

China’s share of global demand2010 portfolio composition5

Source: Company informationNotes:1 Includes iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, manganese2 Includes aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc3 Includes petroleum, platinum, diamonds4 Includes other mining & industrial (Anglo American), Other (Rio Tinto), fertilisers & logistics (Vale), Other (Xstrata)5 Based on 2010 EBITDA contribution (operating profit in the case of Vale). Anglo American is based on pro-forma full consolidation of De Beers 2010 EBITDA.

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

FinishedSteel

Copper

Nickel

Light dutyvehicles

Polisheddiamonds

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

UNIQUE EXPOSURE TO THE LATE CYCLE DEVELOPMENT OF EMERGING ECONOMIES

Page 7: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

7

SUPPLY CONSISTENTLY UNDER DELIVERS

Source: Anglo American, Brook Hunt - a Wood Mackenzie Company

Infrastructure project delays

2010 planned

0

1

2

3

DBCT 7X Northern Missing

Link

RBCT Oakajee Port & Rail

2 2

1

?

Year

s

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

Copper industry grade declines, a long term downward trend

1990 2000 2010 2020

Cop

per g

rade

Cu

%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Pit Walls Strikes Technical Ramp-up

Weather Grades Other

Copper mine underperformance ‘04 – ‘11e

Page 8: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

8

$ per t/yr Cu

0

5,000

10,000,

15,000

20,000

25,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FUTURE SUPPLY WILL BE IMPACTEDBY INCREASING CAPITAL INTENSITY

Source: Brook Hunt – Wood Mackenzie

Conc Producers

SxEw

Annual Prod Scale kt/yr Cu

Projects Under Construction

Projects Probable

51530

Page 9: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

9

DE BEERS’ TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Anglo American would increase its shareholding in De Beers from 45% to 85% for a total cash consideration of US$5.1 billion assuming the Government of the Republic of Botswana (GRB) does not exercise pre-emptive rights

Consideration

Recently renewed 10-year sales agreement Under shareholders agreement GRB has a pre-emption right enabling it to participate in the sales

process and to increase its interest in De Beers pro-rata up to 25% In the event of the GRB exercising its pre-emption right in full Anglo American would acquire 75%

of De Beers and the consideration payable would be reduced proportionately

GRB

Transaction expected to be accretive to underlying earnings before depreciation and amortisation on fair value adjustments in the year of acquisition1Financial implications

Transaction remains subject to shareholder as well as customary regulatory and other approvals– shareholder vote expected in January 2012– closing expected in the H2 2012

Closing conditions

Note:1 See note 9 to the Condensed financial statements for basis of calculation of underlying earnings

Page 10: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

10

Harry Winston

Gem

BHP Billiton

Petra

Rio Tinto

Alrosa

Hope

Higher margin assets70% of De Beers production is located on the lower half of the cost curve

Source: De Beers, Company reports and announcementsNote: 1 Inclusive of reserves and resources

Jwan

eng

Gah

cho

Kue

(pro

ject

)

Ven

etia

Ora

pa

Nam

deb

oper

atio

nsD

amts

haa S

nap

lake

02,

000

4,00

0

6,00

0

8,00

0

10,0

00

12,0

00

14,0

00

16,0

00

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Cos

t/rev

enue

(x)

Cumulative revenue (US$m)

Large scale1

Access to significant reserve base and sustainable production / competitive growth position

LARGE SCALE, HIGHER MARGIN ASSETS

Source: De Beers (2010)

Page 11: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2010 2015

USA Japan India China HK, Taiw an Gulf ROW

Key suppliers (by value)1

Source: De Beers Notes:1 Share of estimated total production (US$) by main producers2 Share of diamond demand at Polished Wholesale Prices (PWP); 2010 are preliminary numbers3 Alrosa figures exclude company’s share in Catoca production4 Artisanal, junior and informal producers

Demand growth led by emerging economies Emerging economies are expected to account for

c.36% by 2015, which is approximately the size of US

Emerging economies36%

Developed economies43%

HIGHLY ATTRACTIVE INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALSDemand growth driven by emerging economies2

Rio Tinto, 4%

BHP Billiton, 4%

Others4, 25%

Harry Winston, 2%

Catoca, 6%

De Beers, 36%

Alrosa3, 18%

7% CAGR

Zimbabwe, 3%

Gem, 1%Petra, 1%

Page 12: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PWP

(pol

ishe

d w

hole

sale

pric

e)

.

Emerging supply demand gap2

New production unable to keep pace with growing demand

STRONG LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS BASED ON STRUCTURAL SUPPLY DEFICIT

Expected demand (nominal pipeline call)

Supply (at constant prices)

Major diamond discoveries1

0

25

50

75

100

125

1870

1906

1940

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

(US$

bn)

South Africaearly 1900’s

Siberia1960’s Orapa

1971

International1999

Jwaneng1982

Argyle1983

Victor2008

Ekati1998 Dlavik

2003

Source: Anglo American; De Beers exploration data; as estimated from company reportsNote:1 Year on top of bars are the date mining began2 Indicative supply demand view based on current assumptions

Catoca1957

Page 13: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

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• Sale of Anglo American Sur (AAS) demonstrates commitment to delivering value for our shareholders• 24.5% disposal of AAS to Mitsubishi Corporation for $5.39 billion, valuing AAS at US$22 billion• Sale completed on 9 November 2011• Transaction is fully compliant with the provisions of the option agreement between Anglo American,

certain of its affiliates and Codelco, which expressly contemplates the eventuality of Anglo American disposing of its AAS shares at any time prior to the date on which the option may be exercised and therefore no longer holding 100% of the shares in AAS

DISPOSAL OF 24.5% ANGLO AMERICAN SUR FOR $5.39 BILLION

(1) Calculated based on implied transaction EV of $23 billion (including $0.9 billion debt) and 2011 EBITDA median broker consensus.

Recent Transactions Broker 2011 EBITDA Estimates

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

High Low Median

US$

’000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Invecture / Frontera

5.5x

7.5xEV

/ EBI

TDA

mul

tiple

High Low Median

Equinox / Lundin

9.6x

Transaction EV/ EBITDA multiple of 17.6x (1)

Page 14: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

14

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

220

200

180

MATERIAL ORGANIC GROWTH IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM

Indexed production growth charts exclude Diamonds, Manganese, niobium and phosphates as at 29 July 2011.

2010 2014

>65%

Inde

xed

prod

uctio

n gr

owth

(201

0 =

100)

Iron Ore

Thermal Coal

Met Coal

PGM

CopperNickel

>35%

Medium termgrowth

>100%

Existing operations& approved

projects

Near term approvals

Future growth options

Continuing to invest in

exploration and

restocking the pipeline

Future options

Page 15: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

15

• Consistent strategy and simple organisational structure delivering results

– Comprehensive improvements undertaken over the last three years

– Delivering on key near-term growth projects, major volume growth is under way

– Operations moving down the cost curve

• Longer term fundamentals remain unchanged

• Supply challenges and increasing capital intensity underpinned longer term fundamentals

• Unique exposure to late cycle development of emerging economies

• Delivering shareholders value through acquisition and divestment transactions

• Well placed to deliver material future growth

DELIVERING VALUE FROM A CONSISTENT STRATEGY

(1) 100% basis (2) Productivity based on material moved, mined or processed per operational headcount, excluding projects. Kumba refers to Sishen only

Material growth in the short and long term

Operational improvements realised across businesses

22020018016014012010080604020

02010 2014 Medium term

growthFuture options

Existing operations & approved

projects

Near term approvals

($16bn)

Future growth options

Indexed production growth (2010 = 100)

>35%

>65%

>100%

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150Copper

Platinum

Kumba

Met coal

Q2 11Q1 11201020092008

Indexed productivity(2) (2008 = 100)

Page 16: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

APPENDIX APPENDIX

Page 17: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

17

USA … … and now China

De Beers has a track record of creating demand for diamonds in different countries

STRONG DOWNSTREAM EXPERTISE AND TRACK RECORD IN CREATING DEMAND WILL UNLOCK FURTHER VALUE

Source: De Beers

% of first time brides who receive a diamond only engagement ring

10%

80%

1940 1990

50 yearsCAGR: 4.2%

Peak

(%)

1

31%

1994 2010

16 yearsCAGR: 23.9%

(%)

… Japan …

5%

77%

1965 1995

30 yearsCAGR: 9.5%

(%)

Peak

?

Peak year

Page 18: Anglo American: UBS European Conference

18

Export Iron Ore

MOVING TO INDUSTRY LEADING COST POSITIONS

Anglo American Platinum cost curve based on internal estimates; all other data sourced from 3rd party data providers. Source: AME, Brook Hunt - a Wood Mackenzie company, Anglo American Platinum

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%20152008

1st

halfcost

curve

2nd

halfcost

curve

Copper Nickel Platinum Export Hard Coking Coal

20152008 20152009 20152008 20152008


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