Date post: | 03-Jun-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | abc-news-online |
View: | 223 times |
Download: | 0 times |
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 1/8
CLIMATECOUNCIL
Angry Summer 2013/2014
Continuing hot on the heels of the ‘Angry
Summer’ of 2012/2013, Australians again
endured record-breaking extreme events this
summer. Drought conditions affected inlandeastern Australia, while parts of the north and
west of the country experienced above average
rainfall. There was an early start to the bushfire
season in New South Wales, and parts of
South Australia, Western Australia and
Victoria were ravaged by fires. Prolonged and
intense heatwaves were experienced in major
population centres, including Adelaide, Canberra
and Melbourne.
Over the 2013/2014 summer numerous
extreme weather-related records were
broken across Australia (Figure 1; Figure 2).
Key findings
1. Heatwaves and hot days, drought and
rainfall extremes (high and low), andbushfires dominated the 2013/2014
summer. For example:
• Sydney had its driest summer
in twenty-seven years
• Canberra experienced 20 days of
at least 35°C
• Melbourne experienced its hottest
ever 24 hour period (average 35.5°C)
•
Adelaide had a record of 11 days of42°C or more during the summer
• Perth had its second hottest summer
on record
2. Climate change is already increasing the
intensity and frequency of many extremeweather events in Australia.
3. Many of our largest population centres
stand out as being at increased risk from
extreme weather events, including
heatwaves, drought and bushfires.
4. The impacts of extreme weather events
on people, property, communities and the
environment are serious and costly.
5. Limiting the increase in extreme weather
activity requires urgent and deep reductions
in the emissions of greenhouse gases. The
decisions we make this decade will largely
determine the severity of climate change
and its influence on extreme events for our
grandchildren. This is the critical decade
for action on climate change.
This report provides a summary of extreme
weather conditions in the 2013/2014 summer,
continuing the trend of hotter summers and
more weather extremes in Australia.
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 2/8
2
F i g u r e
1 : D u r i n g t h e s u m m e r o f 2 0 1 3 / 2 0 1 4 a s e r i e s o f e x t r e m e e v e n t s
h i t t h e n a t i o n
S o u r c
e : B o M 2
0 1 4 a – h ; T h e A g e 1 8 J a n u a r y 2 0 1 4 ; T h e A g e 1 1 F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 4
D A R W I N
H O B A R T
C A N B E R R A
1 5 6
R E C O R D S
9 0
B R O K E N
A R O
U N D
H E R E A R E J U S T
S O M
E O F T H E 1 5 6 +
F R O M
T H E S U M M E R O F 2 0 1 3 / 2 0 1 4
P E R T H
T E M P E R A T U R E
R E C O R D
B u s h fi r e s
d e
s t r o y e d
p r
o p e r t y i n
t h
e P e r t h H i l l s
M E L B O U R N E
C a n b e
r r a ’ s
5 t h D R I E S T
s u m m
e r o n r e c o r d
C a
n b e r r a ’ s
3 r d H
O T T E S T
s u
m m e r o n r e c o r d
A r o u n d 1 5 0 b u s h fi r e s i n
V i c t o r i a
b u r n t 2 8 0 , 0
0 0 h e c t a r e s
i n e a r l y
F e b r u a r y . P r o p e r t y l o s t
o n
M e l b o u r n e ’ s f r i n g e
A D E L A I D E
B u s h fi r e s i n J a n u a r y
a n d F e b r u a r y i n S o u t h
A u s t r a l i a t h r e a t e n e d
l i v e s a n d p r o p e r t y
D R I E S T
J A N U A R Y
O N R E C O R D F O R
6 L O C A T I O N S I N
S O U T H A U S T R A
L I A
2 0 1 3
/ 2 0 1 4
A N G R Y S
U M M E R
D R I E S T
S U M M E R
O N R E C O R D F O R
4 5 L O C A T I O N S A R O U N D
Q U E E N S L A N D
C A N B E R R A
E X P E R I E N C E D
2 0 D A Y S
O F A T L E A S T
3 5 ° C
D R I E S
T
S U M M E R
O N R E C O R D F
O R
3 8 L O C A T I O N S I N
N E W S O U T H W A L E S
H O T T E S T
D A Y
F O R Q U E E N S L A N D
A S A W H O L E
3 4 . 5 ° C
A D
E L A I D E :
H O T T E S T
F E B
R U A R Y
D A Y
4 4 . 7 ° C
A D E L A I D E :
1 1 D A Y S
4 2 ° C +
M E L B O U R N E :
2 N I G H T S
I N A R O W O V E R
2 7 ° C
M E L B O U R N E :
H O T T E S T E V E R
2 4 H O U R
P E R I O D
A V G 3 5 . 5
° C
T E M P E R A T U R E
F A
C T
B U
S H F I R E
F A
C T
D R
Y C O N D I T I O N S
R E C O R D
H E
A T W A V E
R E C O R D
D R
Y C O N D I T I O N S
F A
C T
A D E L A I D E :
5 D A Y S
I N A R O W O V E R
4 2 ° C
C A N B E R R A :
4 D A Y S
I N A R O W O V
E R
3 9 ° C
4
D A Y S
I N
A R O W O V E R
4 1 ° C
F O
R V I C T O R I A
A S A W H O L E
M
E L B O U R N E :
4
D A Y S
I N
A R O W O V E R
4 1 ° C
P e r t h ’ s s e c o n d
H O T T E S T
S U M M E R
O N R
E C O R D
B u s h fi r e s i n V i c t o r i a ’ s
G r a m p i a n s i n J a n u a r y
k i l l e d
o n e p e r s o n ,
d e s t r o y e d p r o p e r t y
a n d b u r n t o v e r
5 2 , 0 0
0 h e c t a r e s
P E R T H :
H O T T E S T N I G H T
E V E R 2 9 . 7 ° C
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 3/8
3
Climate change andextreme weather
Australia has always been, and will continue to be,
a land of extremes. However, climate change is
now making many types of extreme weather
worse, especially weather related to higher
temperatures. For example, Adelaide experienced
13 days where the maximum temperature
exceeded 40°C (the average is 2 days per summer).
Recent record-breaking events show that climate
change is already affecting Australians.
It is crucial that we are aware of the influence
of climate change on extreme weather so that
communities, emergency services, health
services and other authorities are prepared
for the likelihood of increasingly severe and
frequent extreme weather.
Summer 2013/2014 in detail
Heatwaves
In Australia, a heatwave is defined operationally
as a period of at least three days where the
combined effect of high temperatures and
excess heat is unusual within the local
climate (BoM 2012; Nairn and Fawcett 2013).
Heatwaves have widespread impacts, rangingfrom direct impacts on our health to damage
to ecosystems, agriculture and infrastructure
(Climate Council 2014).
What happened?
During summer 2013/2014, intense and
prolonged heatwaves scorched central and
eastern Australia, with major population centres
– Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne – and
their surrounding areas particularly affected.
Record high maximum temperatures occurred
over 8.8 percent of Australia during the first four
days of January, including 17 percent of New
South Wales, 17 percent of the Northern Territory,
16 percent of Queensland and 8 percent
of South Australia (BoM 2014a).
This summer’s heatwaves were particularly
significant because of their record-breaking
duration in major population centres in
southeast Australia.
Victoria experienced its hottest four days on
record from 14–17 January, and Melbourne set
a record for four consecutive days at 41°C and
above (14–17 January) and two nights in a row
at 27°C or above (15–16 January) (BoM 2014b).
Adelaide sweltered through a record-breaking
five consecutive days of 42°C and above, and
Canberra experienced a record run of four days
of 39°C (BoM 2014b). During the summer of2013/2014, Canberra recorded 20 days of at least
35°C (BoM 2014c).
Since 1950 the number of heatwave days each
year has been increasing in Perth, Adelaide,
Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Hobart, and
across Australia as a whole (Perkins and
Alexander 2013; Climate Council 2014).
Climate change and heatwaves
Hot days, hot nights and extended periods
of hot weather – heatwaves – are one of the
most direct consequences of climate change
(Climate Council 2014). The increase in
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily
caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is trapping
more heat in the atmosphere. This increases
the likelihood of heatwaves and hot days and
decreases the likelihood of cold weather
(IPCC 2013).
Since 1960, the annual number of record hot days
in Australia has doubled (CSIRO and BoM 2012)
and over the past decade, record hot days have
occurred three times more often than record cold
days (Trewin and Smalley 2013; CSIRO and BoM
2014). Since 2001, the number of extreme heat
records has been almost three times greater
than the number of cold records for daytime
temperatures, and almost five times greater for
nighttime temperatures (CSIRO and BoM 2014).
The nature of heatwaves in Australia is also
changing: they are becoming hotter, lastinglonger, starting earlier, and occurring more
frequently (Perkins and Alexander 2013;
Climate Council of Australia 2014).
Although Australia has always experienced hot
weather, it now occurs more often, and is more
intense because of climate change. Australia is
not unique. Over the past decade, a remarkably
large number of record-breaking and devastating
heatwaves have occurred in many other parts of
the world (Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012).
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 4/8
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 5/8
5
The IPCC Special Report on Extremes (2012) and
the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) project
that it is virtually certain (greater than 99 percent
probability) that hot extremes will increase and
cold extremes will decrease through the century
compared to the current climate.
Rainfall extremes (high and low)Australia is a large country and rainfall varies
across the continent.
What happened?
Dry conditions prevailed in many regions,
particularly much of inland eastern Australia which
was affected by drought conditions (BoM 2014i).
Northeastern New South Wales and southeastern
Queensland experienced serious rainfall deficits
(lowest 10 percent of records), and Sydney had its
driest summer in almost thirty years (BoM 2014i).Other smaller areas of Victoria, Tasmania and
southwest Western Australia were also affected by
serious rainfall deficits (BoM 2014i). On the other
hand, rainfall was above average across the west of
Queensland's Cape York Peninsula, through the
north and west of the Northern Territory, through
most of Western Australia and along the coast
of South Australia. A large part of this area
experienced the highest 10 percent of summer
rainfall records. In the tropical north and eastern
Western Australia, the majority of summer rainfall
was the result of tropical cyclones or significant
tropical lows (BoM 2014i).
Climate change and rainfall extremes
The conditions that cause drought and rainfall
are complex. While some parts of Australia have
become wetter, much of the eastern part of
Australia has become drier over the past four
decades (Climate Commission 2013; BoM 2014l).
Since the 1960s, southeast Australia has
experienced a number of major droughts. One of
the most severe was the recent Millennium
Drought (1997-2009), for which there is some
evidence of a climate change influence (CSIRO2012). The intensity of the subtropical ridge (STR),
a high pressure system that often lies over
southern Australia, has been implicated in the
decreased rainfall in the southeast (CSIRO 2010).
Rising global temperatures have been linked to
an increase in the intensity of the STR (Timbal
and Drosdowsky 2013), with the result being a
drier and more drought-prone southeast Australia.
Figure 3: The summer mean temperature anomaly for Australia (1910-2013) indicating a continuing
trend of hotter summers, including eight of the hottest summers on record occurring in the past fifteenyears. The summer anomaly is a deviation from the long-term average (1961 to 1990).
Data source: Modified from BoM 2014m
Mean temperature anomaly of
Australian summers (1910–2013)
above the long-term average
1 9 1 0
0 0
0.5 0.5
Year
M e a n t e m p e r a t u r e a n o
m a l y ( ° C )
1 1
1 9 2 0
1 9 3 0
1 9 4 0
1 9 5 0
1 9 6 0
1 9 7 0
1 9 8 0
1 9 9 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 1 0
EIGHT OFTHE HOTTEST SUMMERS ON
RECORD IN AUSTRALIAHAVE OCCURRED IN
THE LAST FIFTEENYEARS
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 6/8
6
Bushfires
Bushfires – a natural part of the Australian
landscape – can severely affect biodiversity,
human health, property, economic activity
and infrastructure.
What happened?
The intense and prolonged heatwaves that
affected several capital cities and their
surrounding regions this summer stacked the
odds towards more severe bushfire weather.
Fires burnt near Perth in mid-January 2014,
destroying property and costing an early-figure
estimate of $15 million (ICA 2014). Fires also
burnt large areas of Victoria’s Grampians
(The Age, 18 January 2014), and threatened
communities on Melbourne’s fringe (The Age,
11 February 2014) and in South Australia(The Guardian, 9 February 2014).
Climate change and bushfires
Climate change is driving an increase in the
risk of bushfires. More hot days and the
increasing intensity, duration and frequency
of heatwaves mean that the chance of very
high fire danger weather – and in turn bushfires
– is increasing (Climate Council 2013). Since
the 1970s, significant increases in fire danger
weather has been observed in the southeast
of Australia (Clarke et al. 2013; CSIRO and
BoM 2014).
The future for extremeweather in Australia
Australia has experienced hotter summers since
the middle of the 20th century (Figure 3), including
eight of the hottest summers on record occurring
in the last fifteen years. Over the coming decades, it
is virtually certain that extreme hot weather willcontinue to become even more frequent and severe
in Australia and other parts of the world.
To slow and eventually halt the increase in
extreme heat and rising bushfire risk, the climate
needs to be stabilized. This requires a rapid,
deep and long-term reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions. The current trend of rising global
emissions needs to be turned around by 2020 and
the right investment decisions need to be made
over the next few years to deliver the longer termemission reductions that are required.
This is the critical decade for action. We are now
in 2014 and approaching the halfway point in
the decade. Despite the promising developments
in low carbon technologies and energy efficiency
measures, Australians have not yet reached a
consensus on the need to decarbonize our
economy and on the development of policies that
will turn investments towards a decarbonized
future. This challenge must be met if we are to
minimize the risk of worsening extreme weather
events for our children and grandchildren. It’s time
to get on with the job.
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 7/8
7
References:BoM (2012) Annual Climate Summary 2012. Bureau of
Meteorology. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
annual_sum/2012/index.shtml.
BoM (2014a) Special Climate Statement 47 – an intense
heatwave in central eastern Australia. Accessed at http://
www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs47.pdf.
BoM (2014b) Special Climate Statement 48 – one of
southeast Australia’s most significant heatwaves.
Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/
statements/scs48.pdf.
BoM (2014c) Canberra in summer 2013–14: Hot, dry summer
for Canberra. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
current/season/act/summary.shtml.
BoM (2014d) Adelaide Metro & Hills in February 2014:
Record rainfall in a warm month. Accessed at http://www.
bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/sa/adelaide.shtml.
BoM (2014e) Adelaide Metro & Hills in summer 2013–14:
Extremes throughout the season. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/sa/adelaide.shtml.
BoM (2014f) NSW in summer 2013–14: Driest summer since
1984–5. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
current/season/nsw/summary.shtml.
BoM (2014g) Queensland in summer 2013–14: Dry in the
south east quarter, hot days across the south, warm nights
in the west. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
current/season/qld/summary.shtml#recordsRainTtlLow.
BoM (2014h) South Australia in January 2014: Records
tumble in heatwaves. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/
climate/current/month/sa/summary.shtml.
BoM (2014i) Australia in summer 2013–14. Accessed at http://
www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml.
BoM (2014j) Rainfall deficiencies increase in Queensland and
adjacent New South Wales and South Australia. Accessed at
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20140204.
shtml.www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20140204.
shtml.
BoM (2014k) Sydney in summer 2013-14: Driest summer since
1986-87. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/
season/nsw/sydney.shtml.
BoM (2014l) BoM ACORN-SAT station data and network
maximum temperature data. Accessed at http://www.bom.
gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/#tabs=1.
BoM (2014m) Australian climate variability & change – Time
series graphs. Accessed at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries.
Clarke H, Lucas C, Smith P (2013) Changes in Australian
fire weather between 1973 and 2010. International Journal
of Climatology 33:931-944.
Climate Commission (2013) The Critical Decade: Extreme
Weather. Steffen W, Hughes L and Karoly D.
Climate Council of Australia (2013) Be prepared: Climate change
and the Australian bushfire threat. Hughes L and Steffen W.
Climate Council of Australia (2014) Heatwaves: Hotter,
longer, more often. Steffen W, Hughes L and Perkins S.
Coumou D and Rahmstorf S (2012) A decade of weather
extremes. Nature Climate Change 2:491-496.
CSIRO (2010) Climate variability and change in south-eastern
Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 1 of the South.
Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI).
CSIRO (2012) Climate and water availability in south-eastern
Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 2 of the South
Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI). CSIRO,
Australia, September 2012, 41 pp.
CSIRO and BoM (2012) State of the Climate 2012. Accessed
at http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/
State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx.
CSIRO and BoM (2014) State of the Climate 2014.
Accessed at http://www.csiro.au/en/Outcomes/Climate/
Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2014.aspx.
ICA (Insurance Council of Australia) (2014)
Historical Disaster Statistics. Accessed at
http://www.insurancecouncil.com.au/industry-statistics-
data/disaster-statistics/historical-disaster-statistics.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012)Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to
Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of
Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D,
Dokken D, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K,
Allen SK, Tignor M and PM Midgley (eds.), Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge and New York, 582 pp.
IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC 5th
Assessment Report – Changes to the underlying Scientific/
Technical Assessment. Accessed at http://www.ipcc.ch/
report/ar5/wg1.
Perkins S and Alexander L (2013) On the measurement
of heatwaves. Journal of Climate 26:4500-4517.
Nairn J and Fawcett R (2013) Defining Heatwaves:
Heatwave defined as a heat-impact even servicing all
community and business sectors in Australia. CAWCR
Technical Report, No. 060. CSIRO and Australian Bureau
of Meteorology, p 96.
The Age (18 January 2014) Fire threat eases as crews
continue to battle Grampians blaze. Schetzer A and Dow A.
Accessed at http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fire-threat-
eases-as-crews-continue-to-battlegrampians-blaze-
20140117-310km.html.
The Age (11 February 2014) Arson suspected in Victorian
bushfires. Webb C and Dow A. Accessed at http://www.
theage.com.au/victoria/arson-suspected-in-
victorianbushfires-20140210-32d09.html.
The Guardian (9 February 2014) Homes lost as fires
burn across Victoria – day’s developments. Davidson H.
Accessed at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/
feb/09/homes-lost-as-fires-burn-across-victoriasouth-
australia-live.
Timbal B, Drosdowsky W (2013) The relationship between
the decline of Southeastern Australian rainfal l and the
strengthening of the subtropical ridge. International
Journal of Climatology 33:1021-1034.
Trewin B, Smalley R (2013) Changes in extreme
temperatures in Australia, 1910 to 2011. In: Proceedings
of the 2013 AMOS National Conference. Melbourne,
Australia, 11–13 February 2013.
8/12/2019 Angry Summer
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/angry-summer 8/8
Published by the Climate Council
of Australia Limited
ISBN:
Print: 978-0-9924142-4-5
Web: 978-0-9924142-5-2
© Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2014
This work is copyright the Climate Council of
Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work
is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd
except where a third party source is indicated.
Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright
material is l icensed under the Creative Commons
Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy
of this license visit
http://creativecommons.org.au
You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the
Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright
material so long as you attribute the Climate
Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the
following manner:
Angry Summer 2013/2014 by the Climate Council
of Australia
Permission to use third party copyright content
in this publication can be sought from the
relevant third party copyright owner/s.
This report is printed on 100% recycled paper.
www.climatecouncil.org.au