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Nicole Mathison Senior Analyst Real Property Research Group, Inc Anne Arundel County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment May 2019
Nicole Mathison
Senior Analyst
Real Property Research Group, Inc
Anne Arundel County Affordable Housing
Needs Assessment
May 2019
Scope of the Rental Survey & Analysis
– Evaluation of Economic & Demographic Trends
– Survey of Affordable Multifamily Rental Stock
– Affordable Supply & Demand Analysis
– Affordability & Penetration Analysis
Employment Growth in Anne Arundel County
7,201
986
-7,464
105
3,583
10,32611,558
3,397
5,025
7,254
3,335
4,856
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3
Change in At Place Employment
Annual Change in Anne Arundel County At Place Employment
United States Annual Employment Growth Rate
Anne Arundel County Annual Employment Growth Rate
An
nu
al C
han
ge in
At
Pla
ce
% A
nn
ual G
row
th
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Employment by SectorEmployment by Industry Sector
2018 Q3Sector Jobs
Government 47,653
Federal 13,214
State 13,524
Local 20,915
Private Sector 228,190
Goods-Producing 30,692
Natl. Res.-Mining 233
Construction 17,861
Manufacturing 12,598
Service Providing 197,498
Trade-Trans-Utilities 56,835
Information 2,098
Financial Activities 11,089
Professional-Business 45,672
Education-Health 34,283
Leisure-Hospitality 37,073
Other 10,448 Unclassified 0
Total Employment 275,843
17.3%
0.1%
6.5%
4.6%
20.6%
0.8%
4.0%
16.6%
12.4%
13.4%
3.8%
15.1%
1.3%
4.8%
8.7%
18.7%
1.9%
5.6%
14.2%
15.5%
11.0%
3.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Government
Nat Resources-…
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education Health
Leisure-Hospitality
Other
Total Employment by Sector 2018 Q3 United States
Anne ArundelCounty
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Annual Wages
$62,899
$56,865
$60,742
$66,835
$46,152
$105,250
$92,960
$72,519
$49,199
$23,182
$37,319
$65,833
$54,685
$63,502
$115,433
$47,095
$75,357
$66,700
$83,676
$51,612
$22,562
$43,334
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000
Government
Natural Resources-Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education-Health
Leisure-Hospitality
Other
Average Annual Pay by Sector 2017
Anne Arundel County
United States
Anne Arundel County Submarkets
Household Growth
Households
2000 Households
2010 Households
2019 Households
2024 Households
Household Change 2000-2010
Total Change 4,481 1,427 10,922 2,659 20,708
Annual Change # / % 448 0.8% 143 0.4% 1,092 2.2% 266 0.7% 2,071 1.1%
Household Change 2010-2019
Total Change 1,094 2,721 5,063 1,619 10,857
Annual Change # / % 122 0.2% 302 0.8% 563 1.0% 180 0.4% 1,206 0.6%
Household Change 2019-2024
Total Change 1,283 1,149 1,861 1,343 6,008
Annual Change # / % 257 0.5% 230 0.6% 372 0.6% 269 0.6% 1,202 0.6%Sources:Baltimore Metropolitan Council 7/18; RPRG, Inc.
NOTE: Annual % Change is an average compounded rate.
55,298 34,632 55,545 42,098 199,378
50,817 33,205 44,623 178,670
210,235
216,243
39,439
Annapolis Odenton-CroftonAnne Arundel
County
Severna Park-
Pasadena
Glen Burnie-
Linthicum
43,717
45,060
37,353
57,675 38,502 62,468
56,392 60,608
0.8%
0.4%
2.2%
0.7%
1.1%
0.5%0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
0.2%
0.8%1.0%
0.4%0.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County
Annual Household % Change
2000 to 2010
2010 to 2019
2019 to 2024
Annual Household Growth by Submarket
448
143
1,092
266257 230
372
269
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena
Annual Household Change
2000 to 2010
2010 to 2019
2019 to 2024
Renters by Submarket
Household Tenure (2019)
Total Households 56,392 37,353 60,608 43,717 210,235
% Renters 15,459 27.4% 11,405 30.5% 18,398 30.4% 9,444 21.6% 56,369 26.8%
% Owners 40,933 72.6% 25,948 69.5% 42,210 69.6% 34,273 78.4% 153,866 73.2%
Senior Households 62+ 21,464 37,353 15,258 14,033 88,108
% Renters 3,830 17.8% 11,405 30.5% 2,273 14.9% 1,786 12.7% 19,294 15.9%
% Owners 17,634 82.2% 25,948 69.5% 12,985 85.1% 12,247 87.3% 68,814 84.1%Sources: Esri; BMC; RPRG, Inc.
Odenton-
Crofton
Severna Park-
PasadenaAnnapolis
Glen Burnie-
Linthicum
Anne Arundel
County
27.4% 30.5%30.4%
21.6%
26.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County
2019 Renters as % of All Households
2019 Household Income
$107,285
$72,939
$107,408$103,409
$98,900
$77,720
$57,533
$86,994
$71,005 $74,525
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County
2019 Median Household Income All Households
Renter Households
Household Income Distribution
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County
2019 Renter Household Income Distribution % < $25K % $25 - $50K
% $50 - $100K % $100K >
dummy
Rent Cost Burden
Multifamily Survey
103 Communities – 21,316 Units
– 9% Rent-restricted units (LIHTC, MPDU) in 16
communities (1,902 units)
– 17% Deeply subsidized units (e.g. public housing, PBV)
in 28 communities (3,558 units)
Submarket Vacancy
Rate
Annapolis 2,002 11.3% 1.9%Glen Burnie-Linthicum 5,440 30.8% 2.2%Odenton-Crofton 5,309 30.0% 3.2%Severna Park-Pasadena 4,925 27.9% 2.7%Anne Arundel County 17,676 100% 2.6%
Surveyed Rental Units
(excluding those with
deep subsidies)
Net Demand
• Demand
– Growth
– Replacement Housing
– Occupancy Levels in Rental Market
• Supply
– Pipeline
Affordable Rental Pipeline
Community Location Developer StatusIncome
Restricted Units
Annapolis
Towne Courts (TC)2010 West St,
Annapolis
PIRHL/Housing
Initiative Partnership
Nine percent tax credits awarded
in 2017 for townhome community.42
Eastport (MPDU only)915 Chesapeake Ave,
Annapolis
Mixed use project would include
98 apartments, of which 6 would
be MPDUs.
6
Parole Place (MPDU only)103 Solomon's Island
Rd, Annapolis
Mixed use project would include
90 apartments, of which 6 would
be MPDUs.
6
subtotal 54
Glen Burnie-Linthicum
None
subtotal 0
Odenton-Crofton
Brock Bridge Landing (TC)7902 Brock Bridge Rd,
Jessup
Woda
Cooper/Interfaith
Housing Alliance
Nine percent tax credits awarded
in 2018.38
Meade Village (TC)1710 Meade Village
Circle, Severn
Housing Commission
of Anne Arundel
County
Nine percent tax credits awarded
in 2017. Project includes rehab of
existing units and addition of 24
new units.
24
subtotal 62
Severna Park-Pasadena
None
subtotal 0
Total Pipeline of Affordable
Units116
(TC) Tax Credit (MPDU) Moderately Priced Dwelling Units
Source: Compiled by Real Property Research Group in May 2019 from various sources, including interviews with developers, planners,
official public sector websites, developers' websites, journal articles, site visit observations, and past RPRG work.
Annapolis
Glen Burnie-Linthicum
Odenton-Crofton
Severna Park-Pasadena
339268
369311
1,284
51 0 59 0 1100
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena Anne Arundel County
Short-term Balance of Supply and Demand for Rental Units2019 to 2022
Total Rental Demand
Planned Additions to Supply
Short-Term Balance of Supply and Demand
Unmet Demand of 1,174 Units
Effective Demand
• The number of rental units in each income group is compared to the number of households that qualify for that band
• Over supply means more units than households.
• Under supply means more households than units.
Penetration Rate – Part 1 (Units)
• We established maximum median income limits for each unit type
HUD 2019 Median Household Income $101,000 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA
% of Median
IncomeMaximium Income Limit x Unit Size
Income Classification Range Eff/1 BR 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR
Extremely Low Rent and Subsidized 0% -30% $21,210 $27,270 $31,515 $35,160 $38,805
Very Low Rent 30% - 50% $35,350 $45,450 $52,525 $58,600 $64,675
Low Rent 50% - 60% $42,420 $54,540 $63,030 $70,320 $77,610
Moderate Rent 60% - 80% $56,560 $72,720 $84,040 $93,760 $103,480
High Rent 80% - 100% $70,700 $90,900 $105,050 $117,200 $129,350
Very High and Extremely High Rent 100% or more + + + + +
Penetration Rate – Part 1 (Units)
• We established rent bounds for different unit types based on area median income
% of Median
IncomeRent Range x Unit Size
Income Classification Range Eff/1 BR 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR
Extremely Low Rent and Subsidized 0% -30% $0-529 $0-681 $0-787 $0-878 $0-969
Very Low Rent 30% - 50% $530-883 $682-1,135 $788-1,312 $879-1,464 $970-1,616
Low Rent 50% - 60% $884-1,060 $1,136-1,363 $1,313-1,575 $1,465-1,757 $1,617-1,939
Moderate Rent 60% - 80% $1,061-1,413 $1,364-1,817 $1,576-2,100 $1,758-2,343 $1,940-2,586
High Rent 80% - 100% $1,414-1,767 $1,818-2,272 $2,101-2,625 $2,344-2,929 $2,587-3,233
Very High and Extremely High Rent 100% or more $1,768 + $2,273 + $2,626 + $2,930 + $3,234 +
Penetration Rate – Part 2 (Households)
• Income bands are defined for each income group based on a 30% rent burden
$0 $millionsLow Rent $70,320$42,420
$0 $millionsModerate
Rent$93,760$56,560
HUD 2019 Median Household Income $101,000 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA
% of Median
IncomeMaximium Income Limit x Unit Size
Income Classification Range Eff/1 BR 2BR 3BR 4BR
Extremely Low Rent and Subsidized 0% -30% $21,210 $27,270 $31,515 $35,160
Very Low Rent 30% - 50% $35,350 $45,450 $52,525 $58,600
Low Rent 50% - 60% $42,420 $54,540 $63,030 $70,320
Moderate Rent 60% - 80% $56,560 $72,720 $84,040 $93,760
High Rent 80% - 100% $70,700 $90,900 $105,050 $117,200
Very High and Extremely High Rent 100% or more + + + +
Penetration Analysis Results
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Extremely Low Rent andSubsidized (<30%)
Very Low Rent (30-50%) Low Rent (50-60%) Moderate Rent (60-80%)
Units/Qualified Renter Households
Annapolis Glen Burnie-Linthicum Odenton-Crofton Severna Park-Pasadena
< U
nd
er S
up
ply
Ove
r Su
pp
ly
Gross Demand for Affordable Rental Units
3,558 Deep Subsidy
Units, 20%
1,025 Surveyed
Market Rate Units, 6%
1,940 Vouchers,
11%
9,221 Unserved by multifamily
stock at appropriate price, 52%
LIHTC/MPDU, 1,859, 11%
Units Available for the 17,603 Anne Arundel County Renter Households
with Incomes below $50,000
Final Thoughts
• Anne Arundel County is a growing market.
• The county’s rental market is relatively tight with an average vacancy rate of 2.6% among the surveyed communities.
• Almost one-half (46 percent) of renters countywide are paying rent that is more than 30 percent of their income.
• Penetration rates reflect a significant undersupply of units for households earning less than 60% AMI.
• Approximately one-half of the renter households in the county earning less than $50,000 can be accommodated by appropriately priced multifamily rental units.
Thank you!
Nicole Mathison
Senior Analyst
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
410.772.1004
