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ANNEX 1 Kingston – 4Q15 Performance Summary For the fourth quarter of 2015, the Portfolio outperformed the benchmark. Financials and Materials were among the largest sector contributors to relative performance, while the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology were among the largest sector detractors. Portfolio Details In the Financials sector, the overweight in self-storage real estate investment trust Extra Space Storage and banking company Bank Rakyat Indonesia were among the largest Portfolio contributors. Shares of Extra Space Storage rose as the company reported quarterly results that topped consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected core income and occupancy rates. Extra Storage Space also raised its full year guidance ahead of consensus forecasts. Bank Rakyat shares rose as the company reported solid third-quarter earnings, driven by higher net interest margins and improved asset quality. In the Materials sector, the overweights in chemicals company DuPont and crop protection product and seed manufacturer Syngenta were among the largest Portfolio contributors. DuPont shares rose amid positive investor sentiment after the company announced that it agreed to merge with Dow Chemical. Shares of Syngenta rose on news that ChemChina was in talks to acquire the company for $42 billion. Syngenta subsequently rejected the offer in hopes of a higher bid. Among individual holdings, the overweight in video game publisher Activision Blizzard and the underweight in energy company Kinder Morgan were among the largest Portfolio contributors. Shares of Activision Blizzard rose as the company reported third- quarter earnings that topped consensus estimates and also announced that it was acquiring digital game manufacturer King Digital for $5.9 billion in a deal that analysts believe will be accretive to Activision’s earnings. Kinder Morgan shares declined sharply as the company announced that it was cutting its dividend by 75% to preserve its investment grade credit rating in the face of the downturn in energy prices. In the Consumer Discretionary sector, the overweights in department store operators Dillard’s and Macy’s were among the largest Portfolio detractors. Shares of Dillard’s declined as the company posted third-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ estimates, driven by the company’s worst same-store sales growth in more than five years. Macy’s shares declined as the company reported disappointing third-quarter earnings that fell short of consensus estimates, driven by weaker-than-expected comparable store sales. Macy’s also lowered its full year earnings guidance. In the Information Technology sector, the underweight in software maker Microsoft and the overweights in hard drive maker Seagate Technology and payment technology provider Fidelity National
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Page 1: ANNEX 1 - moderngov.kingston.gov.uk€¦ · third-quarter earnings, driven by higher net interest margins and improved asset quality. In the Materials sector, the overweights in chemicals

ANNEX 1

Kingston – 4Q15

Performance SummaryFor the fourth quarter of 2015, the Portfolio outperformed the benchmark. Financials and Materials were among the largest sector contributors to relative performance, while the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology were among the largest sector detractors.

Portfolio DetailsIn the Financials sector, the overweight in self-storage real estate investment trust Extra Space Storage and banking company Bank Rakyat Indonesia were among the largest Portfolio contributors. Shares of Extra Space Storage rose as the company reported quarterly results that topped consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected core income and occupancy rates. Extra Storage Space also raised its full year guidance ahead of consensus forecasts. Bank Rakyat shares rose as the company reported solid third-quarter earnings, driven by higher net interest margins and improved asset quality. In the Materials sector, the overweights in chemicals company DuPont and crop protection product and seed manufacturer Syngenta were among the largest Portfolio contributors. DuPont shares rose amid positive investor sentiment after the company announced that it agreed to merge with Dow Chemical. Shares of Syngenta rose on news that ChemChina was in talks to acquire the company for $42 billion. Syngenta subsequently rejected the offer in hopes of a higher bid.

Among individual holdings, the overweight in video game publisher Activision Blizzard and the underweight in energy company Kinder Morgan were among the largest Portfolio contributors. Shares of Activision Blizzard rose as the company reported third-quarter earnings that topped consensus estimates and also announced that it was acquiring digital game manufacturer King Digital for $5.9 billion in a deal that analysts believe will be accretive to Activision’s earnings. Kinder Morgan shares declined sharply as the company announced that it was cutting its dividend by 75% to preserve its investment grade credit rating in the face of the downturn in energy prices.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, the overweights in department store operators Dillard’s and Macy’s were among the largest Portfolio detractors. Shares of Dillard’s declined as the company posted third-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ estimates, driven by the company’s worst same-store sales growth in more than five years. Macy’s shares declined as the company reported disappointing third-quarter earnings that fell short of consensus estimates, driven by weaker-than-expected comparable store sales. Macy’s also lowered its full year earnings guidance. In the Information Technology sector, the underweight in software maker Microsoft and the overweights in hard drive maker Seagate Technology and payment technology provider Fidelity National

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Information Services were among the largest Portfolio detractors. Microsoft shares rose as the company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that topped consensus estimates, driven by strong results in its cloud and enterprise segments. Despite reporting first-quarter earnings that topped consensus estimates, Seagate declined as the company provided disappointing fourth-quarter guidance. Shares of Fidelity National declined as the company reported disappointing third-quarter earnings, driven by lower-than-expected revenue in its integrated financial solutions segment.

Among individual holdings, the overweight in fertilizer manufacturer K+S and lighting company Osram Licht were among the largest Portfolio detractors. K+S shares declined amid negative investor sentiment after Potash Corp of Saskatchewan announced that it walked away from its proposed $8.8 billion takeover of K+S. Despite reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and announcing a share buyback, Osram Licht declined as the company’s CEO unveiled a new strategic plan in which Osram will invest capital in its upstream semiconductor business. The move caught many analysts by surprise as they believe it may hurt profitability as the company shifts its focus away from several smaller, yet lucrative business segments.

Portfolio PositioningWe continue to seek to exploit market inefficiencies through bottom-up stock selection based on fundamental company research, implemented within a framework of quantitative risk control. As of December 31, 2015, the Portfolio remains relatively neutral across regions. While maintaining similar sector weightings relative to the benchmark, active stock selection results in slight overweights in Telecom Services and Health Care stocks, and slight underweights in Information Technology and Industrials stocks.

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ANNEX 2

The TPen Global Select Fund returned +10.7% for the quarter, outperforming the MSCI All Country World Index which returned +8.1%. Over 12 months to 31 Dec 15, the Fund has outperformed the index by +6.9%. Global equities bounced back from their weakness in Q3 to finish the year in positive territory. Early in the quarter, lower-than-expected US job-creation data pushed back expectations for an imminent US rate hike, helping prompt a “risk on” attitude among investors. Key positive contributors over the quarter were led by Alphabet (formerly Google), which beat street estimates on both earnings and sales. The secular story around the company’s advertising growth is playing out, with mobile search and YouTube both key revenue drivers. Yaskawa Electric (automotive technology) also performed strongly, amid a generally positive period for Japanese exporters. PT Bank Rakyat traded higher; the bank’s third-quarter earnings were ahead of consensus, largely due to increased net interest income and more effective cost controls. Alibaba (ecommerce) climbed after releasing good results, with second-quarter revenue ahead of market expectations. January has seen a sharp retraction in global equity markets, and the Fund has given back some of 2015’s outperformance, but remains well above index over 3 and 12 months. As we move into 2016, we have seen interest rates move away from emergency settings in the US, but monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative in both Japan and Europe. The outlook for the emerging markets remains challenging, particularly for those commodity exporters reliant on Chinese fixed-asset investment. We continue to seek out growth as we believe economic growth will remain subdued, and companies that can deliver consistent growth in this environment will be attractive investments.

We continue to favour secular-growth companies and high-quality franchises, but find cyclical areas of the markets less attractive.

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ANNEX 3

Over the quarter to 31 December 2015 the Global Active Value Fund (the fund) held by the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames Pension Fund rose by 6.4% against a rise of 8.4% for the MSCI World Index and 7.9% for the MSCI All Countries World Index (includes emerging markets). Continuing a long-running theme, Value as an investment style was side-lined over both the quarter and the year. Investors gravitated towards the apparently lower risk of Minimum Volatility stocks or, at times of increased optimism, highly priced Growth / Momentum stocks. The US market, in particular, was driven by a narrow group of Growth stocks predominantly in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors The fund underperformed over the year and the quarter. In both periods the principal headwind was the fund's underweight position in the expensive Growth stocks which drove the US market. Over 2015 the allocation to Emerging Markets held back returns as did positions in mining stocks. However, stock selection amongst banks was a positive and our long-standing holdings in insurance performed well. Mining holdings detracted over the quarter, but positioning in the energy sector partially offset this.

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ANNEX 4

Royal Borough of Kingston – Q4 2015 commentary Market review In the fourth quarter, central bank policies diverged materially as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates, while the European Central Bank (ECB) announced further easing measures, including cutting interest rates further into negative territory. In the US, unemployment fell further and the pace of job creation accelerated into the year end.

Inflation continues to be absent from most developed markets, as falling commodity prices continue to weigh on investors’ minds. In the UK, the headline consumer price index (CPI) fell to -0.1% in October, only to end the year at 0.2%.

The UK, Europe and the US all saw investment grade corporate bonds (credit) outperform government equivalents, with the latter posting negative returns in the UK and US. In high yield credit, weakness in the energy sector weighed heavily on the US market. European high yield markets were more resilient, but declined in December as investors were disappointed with the ECB’s measures, which fell short of market expectations. Broader concerns about emerging market growth and falling commodity prices/disinflation also remained on investors’ minds.

Henderson All Stocks Credit FundSterling corporate bond strategies performed well over the quarter. The All Stocks Credit Fund returned 0.58%, 0.21% ahead of the iBoxx sterling non-gilt index, which returned 0.37% over the quarter. Performance benefited from higher exposure to corporate bonds with lower credit ratings than the benchmark, and a preference for longer maturity bonds where demand was bolstered by European insurance companies making preparations for the commencement of the Solvency II regulations (which went live on the 1 January).

At the sector level, holdings in subordinated bank and insurance bonds were the primary driver of performance, with positions in Aviva, Standard Life, HSBC and Lloyds performing well. Positions in the telecoms, media and the technology sector also contributed to returns, including Apple, AT&T and Verizon. Partially offsetting this, underweight exposure to both the housing associations sector and to German utilities detracted from relative returns.

Henderson Horizon Total Return Bond FundThe fund delivered a positive return of 1.28% over the quarter. Performance was driven by holdings in high yield and financial sector corporate bonds, and a positive contribution from active interest rate strategies.

Corporate bond holdings delivered positive returns, benefiting from our focus on European issuers and limited exposure to problem areas such as the US energy sector. We increased our allocation to financial bonds during the quarter, focusing on the subordinated debt of European

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insurance companies, where selling pressure associated with new Solvency II regulations has created an attractive entry point.

Our strategies in government bond and interest rate markets performed well. Positions seeking to benefit from higher government bond yields, a rise in long-term US inflation expectations and for yields in the eurozone to fall relative to those in the UK added value as the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2006.

Performance also benefited from a position in Italian inflation-linked government debt, which delivered a positive return as expectations grew for further monetary policy action in the eurozone to increase inflation back towards target. Finally, exposure to Mexican sovereign debt also added to returns, although overall we remain cautious with regard to emerging markets in the near term.

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ANNEX 5

Over the three-month period to 31st December 2015, UBS Triton Property Fund produced a total return of +3.1%. Performance was mainly driven by the Fund's strategically overweight position in Central London offices and the industrial sector. Over 1 and 2 years, the Fund has outperformed its benchmark by 1.2% and 1.5% p.a., returning 13.7% and 16.3% p.a. respectively.

Several leasing transactions were completed across the portfolio generating annual rental income of GBP 4.5 million to lead to a substantial reduction in the Fund's void rate to less than 5% post-quarter end (3Q15: 11.1%). Notable leases were concluded with R/GA Media Group plc at 99 Clifton Street, London, The Body Shop for 3 floors at Knollys & Stephenson House in Croydon and WM Morrison Supermarkets at Springfields Outlet Centre in Spalding.

In October 2015, the Funds signed a new 5 year GBP 79 million secured revolving debt facility from the Royal Bank of Scotland, effectively halving the cost of the Fund's debt. The facility will ensure that the Fund has sufficient working capital to acquire new assets for the portfolio and undertake asset management. The recent GBP 45 million fund raising offer for existing investors to increase their investment in UBS Triton was oversubscribed.

UBS Triton's current strategy is to reduce exposure to retail warehousing and seeks to increase investment in the industrial and student accommodation sectors. A retail asset in Swansea (4-5 Oxford Street) was sold. UBS Triton is a core, actively managed balanced UK fund focusing on strategic assets in growth locations with sustainable income streams. There is long term embedded asset management potential.

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ANNEX 6

Pyrford Global Total Return Fund Q4 & Year End 2015 Commentary

Performance: The Pyrford Global Total Return Fund generated a positive gross return of +2.42% in the final quarter of 2015, finishing a challenging year positively with a total gross return of +2.61%.

Key Drivers & Detractors: The portfolios equities contributed positive absolute returns over the final quarter and year (+1.54% overall contribution in 2015). The portfolio’s UK stock selection in particular continues to be a key driver of the portfolio’s returns adding 6% in the final quarter and finishing the year up over 6% relative (+7.42% v +0.98%, FTSE All-Share). Over the last 10 years, the portfolio’s UK equities have added over 4% per annum in outperformance compared to the FTSE All-Share index. The portfolio currently holds 10 UK companies (around 50% of equity weight in portfolio) and all but 2 stocks (BP and SSE) outperformed the FTSE All-Share index over the year. BP suffered from the oil price drop and SSE on generally lower UK energy prices and uncertainty over the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) investigation into energy supply. Key positive contributors in 2015 include Sky, L&G and British American Tobacco (BAT). Sky has been strong on the back of successful cross selling of broadband and telephone services to its customers. Further, the group has continued to report strong earnings growth. L&G has been resilient despite sweeping changes to the UK pension’s annuity market and finally, BAT has demonstrated strong operational performance despite headwinds from e-cigarettes and plain packaging.

Overseas equities were particularly strong in the final quarter adding 8%. When compared to the “FTSE World ex-UK” index for comparative purposes, relative performance has been weaker over the year (+1.73% v +4.43%). The broader index is heavily weighted towards the US and Japan (73% combined) whereas the Pyrford portfolio favours non-Japan Asian markets (19% of equity portfolio). The portfolio has only a small holding in US equities (3% of equities) as the US has one of the lowest dividend yields in the Pyrford country universe and only a modest earnings growth forecast. The portfolio has very little exposure to Japan (2.7% of equities), where the economy remains close to recession; has hardly any inflation and its government finances are a cause for concern. In addition its stock market has a dividend yield of just 1.9% which makes even the US seem cheap. Despite that, the market has performed well (up around 11% in local currency), perhaps because the Bank of Japan is embarked on quantitative easing and the expectation is that this will continue. The portfolio remains invested in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia where economies offer sustainable economic growth supported by labour force growth or enhanced productivity and trade at more reasonable valuations.The portfolios bonds also contributed positive absolute returns over the final quarter and year (+0.72% overall contribution in 2015). The portfolio’s UK bond portfolio outperformed the FTSE All Stocks Gilt, over the quarter (+0.04% v -1.20%) and year (+0.73% v +0.57%) as the portfolio’s short-duration positioning protected capital in a

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rising yield environment, especially in the second quarter when yields spiked sharply. Overseas Bonds added +1.53% over the quarter and +1.80% over the year. This return was supported by US Dollar strength (+5.5% v GBP in 2015) as the portfolio holds 15% in unhedged US government bonds. The portfolio also holds 5% in unhedged Canadian government bonds which detracted over the year due to Canadian dollar weakness (-13.37% v GBP in 2015) although this was offset by a currency hedge at the beginning of the year.

Cash and currency hedging added +0.35% over the year. At the start of the year, the portfolio was hedged against the Australian and Canadian dollar, however both hedges were removed once the anticipated weakness was realised, resulting in profit for the portfolio.

Q4 2015 Market Commentary: The final quarter was marked by the ebb and flow of sentiment as the “will they”, “won’t they” debates raged in relation to the US Fed and its interest rate policy. Finally, in December, the Fed raised its rate by 0.25% to a still tiny 0.25-0.50% range. This was exactly seven years after the Fed had reduced its target range to the lowest on record at 0-0.25%. The market initially strengthened, then weakened, strengthened again and finally weakened as the year came to a close. In other words, confusion about the impact continued to reign. The zero interest rate policy appears to have had minimal impact upon economic growth but has created distortions throughout the world as cheap US funds have found their way into many nooks and crannies, boosting indebtedness and asset prices. Emerging markets, in particular, are vulnerable as the dollars they have borrowed are no longer quite so cheap as interest rates rise and the US dollar strengthens relative to the domestic currency.

The ongoing Syrian conflict; the migrant crisis that is sending many thousands of refugees through Turkey, Greece and other European countries and the terrorist atrocities in Paris all grabbed headlines during the final quarter. Spain had a general election but it proved inconclusive and it now appears likely that Spaniards will return to the polls in 2016. Near-neighbour Portugal also had a controversial general election with the end result being a Socialist leader occupying the Prime Minister’s chair. Eurozone equities fared well over the quarter on expectations that the ECB would announce additional monetary policy easing, however Mario Draghi left investors disappointed as the scale of QE was not increased. Instead, the programme was extended to March 2017 and deposit rates for banks were cut.

Commodity prices continued to slump during the quarter – including oil which fell below $40 a barrel. The sharp fall in drilling rig usage in the US and inevitable impact upon supply is not yet helping to prop the price. The unpredictable nature of OPEC output and the apparent breakdown in the harmony of the Middle East cartel makes short-term price forecasting impossible. Global oil demand continues to creep up but that is almost entirely due to the developing and emerging world as most advanced countries are consuming less oil each year as they become more energy efficient and develop alternative energy sources.

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Within government bond markets the oddity of negative short-term yields continued to prevail in countries such as Belgium, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. At the 10-year maturity end yields tended to edge up over the quarter. In fact, by the end of December 10-year yields were higher than at the start of 2015 in Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the UK and USA. This is still a long stretch from normality but it could be that we have seen the lows in long-bond yields. Time will tell.

The economic up-cycle is now mature at six years and further significant progress from this level will be increasingly difficult. The year ahead could be anything but straightforward.

Asset Allocation & positioning: After reducing equities towards the end of 2014, there was no further change to the asset allocation of the portfolio in 2015. The model allocation is now: equities 30%, fixed income 67% and cash 3%. The portfolio is back to the same equity weighting as it was going into the financial crisis in 2008. This reflects the view that there is very little fundamental value in either equities or longer duration quality sovereign bonds and that capital market valuations do not discount the significant structural economic problems and material risks that exist.

The equity portfolio remains defensively positioned with a zero weighting in UK and European banks and limited exposure to more cyclical sectors such as capital goods and materials. The focus of the portfolio is on balance sheet strength, profitability, earnings visibility and value.

In bonds Pyrford continues to adopt a defensive stance by owning short duration securities in order to protect the capital value of the portfolio from expected rises in yields. At the end of 2015 the modified duration of the fixed income portfolio was 1.5 years. There were no changes to the geographical allocation of the fixed income portion of the portfolio during the final quarter.

Finally, our currency positioning: In line with Pyrford’s purchasing power parity analysis, only the Swiss franc exposure within the portfolio remains fully hedged, insulating the portfolio against any fall in the value of the currency.

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ANNEX 7

Global Absolute Return StrategiesEnvironment

Global equities ended higher, with central bank activity remaining a dominant driver

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the first time in almost 10 years

US high yield credit came under pressure from commodity price weakness

Global equities rose, although performance in December was marred by renewed weakness in commodities and concerns over global growth. At a regional level, most markets delivered positive returns, with developed markets outperforming emerging markets. In the US, strong economic data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006 provided support. European equities also gained ground, despite disappointment over a promised stimulus package from the central bank. In Japan, evidence of further cyclical recovery led to a sharp rebound in October.

Government bonds largely followed the divergent policy actions of their respective central banks, with the US finally raising rates in December, while Europe and Asia retained a loose monetary stance. Credit markets were mixed. In particular, the falling oil price took a heavy toll on US high yield credit, where large redemptions forced several high yield funds to close and prompted the implementation of a withdrawal cap. Amid rising US rates and declining commodity prices, investors are increasingly nervous about rising defaults among those high yield firms with significant resources exposure.

Activity

We closed our global equity miners strategy in October. Management’s cost control activities on which the strategy was predicated had largely played out. However, this was overwhelmed by the collapse in commodity prices. We grew concerned that our capital return expectations would not materialise, leaving the strategy more dependent on a recovery in commodity markets, and adding substantial risk.

We also exited our Chinese equity position. We had expected economic growth in China would be swiftly reflected in the equity market. However, we now expect this to happen at a slower pace, partly due to policy interventions which have become more difficult to predict.

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Finally, we added a longer-dated Australian duration strategy to complement our existing Australian duration exposure. Although the Australian labour market reported good headway recently, we believe interest rates will fall in the medium term, especially as inflationary pressures remain subdued. Moreover, external vulnerabilities like the continued slide in commodity prices and the slowdown in China argue for another rate cut to stimulate growth.

Performance

During the fourth quarter of 2015, the Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund returned 1.7% against the 6 Month LIBOR return of 0.2%. Over the year to 31 December 2015, the Fund returned 3.0%, against the index return of 0.7%.

As expectations of a US rate cut mounted and were finally realised, our US butterfly strategy performed well, benefiting in particular from movements at the more policy-sensitive short end of the yield curve. Elsewhere, Japanese and European equities responded positively to the prospect of continued low borrowing costs, supporting our exposures here. However, our European equity banks versus insurers strategy detracted from performance. The European insurance sector showed greater sensitivity to the broad market recovery than the banks, a number of which were impeded by poor results, cost cutting and restructuring.

Our US equity technology versus smallcap strategy made gains as large-cap technology stocks outperformed smallcaps during the broad equity market rally early in the quarter. Additionally, smallcaps were hurt by commodity price weakness.

Turning to currencies, our long US dollar versus euro pair posted a healthy profit. The euro fell in anticipation of further ECB stimulus. Conversely, the US dollar appreciated as the US Fed embarked on monetary tightening.

Our long Mexican peso versus Australian dollar strategy made a loss. The Australian dollar strengthened in the quarter on better-than-expected labour market data. In Addition, the central bank opted to keep interest rates unchanged despite a slowdown in China, which further underpinned the currency. Meanwhile, the peso depreciated ahead of the Fed’s rate increase, its fall exacerbated by further oil price weakness. Also negative was our long US dollar versus Korean won strategy. The won rose as third-quarter growth surpassed forecasts, igniting hopes of economic recovery.

Finally, our HSCEI versus FTSE variance strategy suffered as the FTSE index exhibited more volatility than the Hong Kong index, mainly owing to fluctuations in oil and other commodity stocks.

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Outlook

Our central expectation is still for modest global growth, albeit with regional variations. A growing divergence in central bank monetary policy will remain an important driver of asset returns. The US has finally embarked on monetary tightening, whereas economies in Europe and Asia maintain a looser monetary path. Geopolitical tensions remain high and on many metrics asset prices appear expensive. We seek to exploit the opportunities that these conditions present by implementing a diversified range of strategies using multiple asset classes.


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