Annual Energy Outlook 2021 with projections to 2050 February 3, 2021 www.eia.gov/aeo #AEO2021 Chart library Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Analysis U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This publication is online at www.eia.gov/aeo This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies. Annual Energy Outlook 2021 with projections to 2050 February 2021
Transcript
Annual Energy Outlook 2021with projections to 2050
February 3, 2021www.eia.gov/aeo#AEO2021
Chart library
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationOffice of Energy Analysis
U.S. Department of EnergyWashington, DC 20585
This publication is online atwww.eia.gov/aeo
This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those ofthe U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
Annual Energy Outlook 2021with projections to 2050
February 2021
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. energy markets
Critical drivers
Petroleum and other liquids
Natural gas
Electricity generation
Transportation
Buildings
Industrial
Emissions
References
Table of contents Slide number
5
11
19
33
43
61
75
93
101
109
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Overview of U.S. energy marketsThe Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) presents modeled projections of future energy production and energy use in the United States.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Energy production and consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
dry naturalgas
crude oil and lease condensateother renewable energycoalnatural gas plant liquidsnuclearhydro
Energy production by sourceAEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Energy consumption by fuel AEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
petroleumand other liquidsnatural gas
coalother renewable energy
nuclearhydroliquid biofuels
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Energy intensity and consumptionIndexed total energy intensity of the U.S. economyAEO2021 Reference case2019 = 1.0
Energy consumption by sectorAEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
electric power
industrial
transportation
residentialcommercial
2020history projections
2020history projections
Note: Total energy intensity calculation reflects primary energy, which includes electricity losses.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Petroleum consumption by sector and fuel type
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020 2030 2040 2050
transportation
industrial
commercialresidentialelectric power
Petroleum and other liquids consumption by sectorAEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Petroleum and other liquids consumption by fuel typeAEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
0
2
4
6
8
10
2020 2030 2040 2050
motor gasoline
liquefied petroleum gasdistillate fuel oil
jet fuelother
residual fuel oil
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Energy imports and exports
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2010 2030 2050
exports
imports
2020history projections
-10
0
10
20
30
1990 2010 2030 2050
petroleumand other liquidselectricitycoal and cokenatural gas
2020history projections
net imports
net exports
Net energy imports AEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Gross energy trade AEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Indexed delivered energy across end-use sectorsAEO2021 economic growth cases2019 = 1.0
Delivered energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
High Economic GrowthReference Low Economic Growth
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Delivered energy across end-use sectorsAEO2021 economic growth casesquadrillion British thermal units
High Economic GrowthReference Low Economic Growth
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Indexed delivered energy by end-use sectorAEO2021 Reference case2019 = 1.0
Delivered energy by end-use sector
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
industrialcommercialresidentialtransportation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Residential delivered energy intensity indexper household
2000 2020 2050
Delivered energy intensity by sectorIndexed delivered energy intensity by sectorAEO2021 Reference case2019 = 1.0
Note: Energy intensity at the end-use sector level is typically measured relative to an indicator that most directly affects delivered energy consumption within the sector (for example, household, dollar of output, or vehicle-mile).
Transportation on-road energy intensity indexby vehicle-mile
Transportation passenger energy intensity indexby passenger-mile
Industrial delivered energy intensity indexby dollar of output
Commercial delivered energy intensity indexby square foot of floorspace
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Southwest
Northern Great PlainsGulf CoastRocky Mountains MidcontinentEast West Coast
Onshore crude oil production in the Lower 48 statesOnshore crude oil production in the Lower 48 states by regionAEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Natural gas plant liquids production by region and type
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
East
Southwest
rest of UnitedStates
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production by region AEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
normal butaneisobutane
propane
ethane
natural gasoline
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production by typeAEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0%
5%
10%
15%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
High Oil Price
Reference
Low Oil Price
2020history projections
Biofuels as a percentage of motor gasoline and dieselProjected biofuels percentage of gasoline and diesel consumptionAEO2021 oil price casespercentage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Biofuels production by type, AEO2021 high and low price cases
Low Oil Price casemillion barrels per day
U.S. biofuels production by type
High Oil Price casemillion barrels per day
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Reference casemillion barrels per day
biodiesel
total ethanol
other biomass
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
diesel and residual fuel exports
unfinished oils imports
U.S. total crude supply AEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
U.S. diesel and residual fuel exports and unfinishedoils imports, AEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
U.S. refinery utilization
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. petroleum and other liquids trade
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
High Oil PriceHigh Oil and Gas Supply
Reference
Low Oil and Gas SupplyLow Oil Price
U.S. petroleum and other liquids net exportsAEO2021 supply and price side casesmillion barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Ethanol and motor gasoline consumption
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total motor gasoline consumptionAEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
2020history projections
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total ethanol consumptionAEO2021 Reference casemillion barrels per day
2020history projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
High Oil Price
Reference
Low Oil Price
Retail prices of motor gasolineAEO2021 oil price cases2020 dollars per gallon
Motor gasoline and diesel prices
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
High Oil Price
Reference
Low Oil Price
Retail prices of dieselAEO2021 oil price cases2020 dollars per gallon
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Natural gas
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. dry natural gas productionAEO2021 side casestrillion cubic feet
U.S. natural gas consumptionAEO2021 side casestrillion cubic feet
U.S. dry natural gas production and consumption
2020history projections
2020history projections
High Oil and Gas SupplyHigh Oil PriceReferenceLow Oil PriceLow Oil and Gas Supply
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
High Oil and Gas SupplyReferenceLow Oil and Gas Supply
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Low Oil and Gas SupplyReferenceHigh Oil and Gas Supply
U.S. dry natural gas productionAEO2021 oil and gas supply casestrillion cubic feet
Natural gas spot price at Henry HubAEO2021 oil and gas supply cases2020 dollars per million British thermal units
Natural gas production and prices
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Reference casetrillion cubic feet
Low Oil and Gas Supply casetrillion cubic feet
U.S. dry natural gas production by type
High Oil and Gas Supply casetrillion cubic feet
tight/shale gasother Lower 48 statesonshoreLower 48 states offshoreother
U.S. dry natural gas production by type, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Reference casetrillion cubic feet
Low Oil and Gas Supply casetrillion cubic feet
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Southwest
East
Gulf Coast
U.S. production of natural gas from shale resources
High Oil and Gas Supply casetrillion cubic feet
2020history projections
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
U.S. dry natural gas production from shale resources by region, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
rest of United States
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Southwest
Gulf Coast
other
Reference casetrillion cubic feet
U.S. production of natural gas from oil formations
High Oil and Gas Supply casetrillion cubic feet
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Low Oil and Gas Supply casetrillion cubic feet
U.S. dry natural gas production from oil formations by region, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Natural gas consumption by sector, AEO2021 Reference case trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day
U.S. natural gas consumption by sector
residential
electric power
industrialliquefactionlease and plantother
commercial
transportation
2020history projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
2020 2030 2040 2050-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2020 2030 2040 2050
Change in natural gas disposition by sector and net exports
electric powercommercialresidentialtransportationindustrialnet exports
Natural gas disposition by sector and net exports
AEO2021 Reference case
trillion cubic feet
Change in natural gas disposition and net exports
AEO2021 Reference case
relative to 2020 in trillion cubic feet
electric powercommercialtransportationindustrialnet exportsresidential
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade
Reference casetrillion cubic feet(Tcf)
-13.7
0.0
13.7
27.4
41.1
-5
0
5
10
15
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
-13.7
0.0
13.7
27.4
41.1
-5
0
5
10
15
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
-5
0
5
10
15
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
U.S. natural gas and LNG trade, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Low Oil and Gas Supply case
Tcf
High Oil and Gas Supply casebillion cubic feet per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
5
10
15
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. liquefied natural gas exportsAEO2021 supply and price casestrillion cubic feet
Ratio of Brent crude oil price to natural gas priceat Henry Hub, AEO2021 supply and price casesenergy-equivalent terms
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and oil and natural gas prices
2020history projections
High OilPriceHigh Oil and Gas SupplyReferenceLow Oil and Gas SupplyLow Oil Price
Electricity
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. electricity generation and share from selected fuels and renewable sources
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
U.S. electricity generation from selected fuels AEO2021 Reference casebillion kilowatthours
natural gasrenewablesnuclearcoal
40%
21%
19%
19%
36%
42%
11%
11%0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. renewable electricity generation, including end useAEO2021 Reference casebillion kilowatthours
2020
history projections
solar windgeothermalhydroelectricother16%
41%2%
34%7%
46%
47%
34%
13%2%
4%
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. electricity use growth rate,three-year rolling averageAEO2021 economic growth casespercentage growth
2020history projections
High Economic GrowthReferenceLow Economic Growth 0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
1990
2020
2050
1990
2020
2050
1990
2020
2050
1990
2020
2050
U.S. electricity use by end-use sector AEO2021 Reference case billion kilowatthours
onsite generation
purchased electricity
residential industrialcommercial transportation
Note: Onsite generation is electricity produced onsite for own use.
U.S. electricity demand
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 2010 2030 2050
2020history projections
natural gas
coal
nuclear
renewables
Reference casebillion kilowatthours
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020projections
Low Oil and Gas Supply casebillion kilowatthours
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020projections
High Oil and Gas Supply casebillion kilowatthours
U.S. electricity generation levels from selected fuels and renewable sourcesU.S. electricity generation, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Note: Renewables category includes electricity generation from wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, and other biomass sources.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020projections
High Renewables Cost casebillion kilowatthours
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020projections
Low Renewables Cost casebillion kilowatthours
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 2010 2030 2050
2020history projections
natural gas
coal
nuclear
renewables
Reference casebillion kilowatthours
U.S. electricity generation levels from selected fuels and renewable sourcesU.S. electricity generation, AEO2021 renewables cost cases
Note: Renewables category includes electricity generation from wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, and other biomass sources.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
-60-50-40-30-20-10
0102030405060
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2020history projections
solarwindotheroil and natural gasnuclearcoal
additions
retirements
Annual electricity generating capacity additions and retirements
AEO2021 Reference casegigawatts
Source: Form EIA-860M, Monthly Update to the Annual Electric Generator Report, July 2020
U.S. retiring and new generating capacity
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. cumulative retiring and new generating capacity
2694
2397
21
375 253 466 297 446
114 200105 237 121
435563 385
657
206
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (2021–2050)AEO2021 selected casesgigawatts
additions
Reference case Low Oil and Gas Supply case
High Oil and Gas Supply case
solarwindoil andnatural gasnuclearothercoal
6 22
Low Renewables Cost case
High Renewables Cost case
2
-29 -14 -59 -58 -26-111 -91
-128 -120 -107
-49 -64-52 -58 -48
-400
-200
0
retirements
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Electricity prices by components and long-term average electricity prices
5.83 5.42 4.99 4.68
1.35 1.511.58 1.54
3.25 3.34 3.483.40
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2020 2030 2040 2050
Components of U.S. Electricity Prices AEO2021 Reference case2020 cents per kilowatthour
distribution
transmission
generation
8
9
10
11
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. average electricity priceAEO2021 selected cases2020 cents per kilowatthour
2020history projections
Low Oil andGas SupplyHigh Renewables CostReferenceLow Renewables CostHigh Oil and Gas Supply
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
hybrid storagestand-alone storage
Hybrid versus stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems
U.S. storage energy capacity, power sector AEO2021 Reference casebillion kilowatthours
U.S. solar PV generating capacity, all sectors AEO2021 Reference casegigawatts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
hybrid solar PV, power sectorstand-alone solar PV, end use stand-alone solar PV, power sector
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Renewable capacity by source and region
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
His
tory
HC
HO
GS
Ref
eren
ceLO
GS
LC
His
tory
HC
HO
GS
Ref
eren
ceLO
GS
LC
His
tory
HC
HO
GS
Ref
eren
ceLO
GS
LC
His
tory
HC
HO
GS
Ref
eren
ceLO
GS
LC
His
tory
HC
HO
GS
Ref
eren
ceLO
GS
LC
His
tory
HC
HO
GS
Ref
eren
ceLO
GS
LC
His
tory
HC
HO
GS
Ref
eren
ceLO
GS
LC
Total renewables capacity in all sectors, 2019 and 2050AEO2021 selected side casesgigawatts
Northeast PJM Southeast Mid-Continent ERCOT CAISO West
HC: High Renewable Cost; LC: Low Renewable Cost; HOGS: High Oil & Gas Supply; LOGS: Low Oil & Gas Supply; other: geothermal, biomass, municipal waste
solar photovoltaic, power sector stand-alone energy storagesolar photovoltaic, end use otheronshore wind hydrooffshore wind
ERCOT
Mid-ContinentCAISO
WestPJM
Northeast
Southeast
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Note: CCGT = natural gas combined cycle, PV = solar photovoltaic
Economic cost competitiveness of generating technologies
$0
$50
$100
$0 $50 $100
coal
$0
$50
$100
$0 $50 $100
CCGT
$0
$50
$100
$0 $50 $100
nuclear
$0
$50
$100
$0 $50 $100
wind
$0
$50
$100
$0 $50 $100
PV
levelized cost of electricity
leve
lized
avo
ided
co
st o
f ele
ctric
ity
regions with builtcapacity
regions with no built capacity
Economically attractive builds are shown above the diagonal breakeven line for each technology.
The solid, colored circles on the figure indicate that projects tend to be built in regions where revenue (LACE) exceeds costs (LCOE)
Levelized avoided cost of electricity (LACE) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by technology,
2026 online year, AEO2021 Reference case
2020 dollars per megawatthour
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Total qualifying renewables generation required for combined state renewable portfolio standards and projected total generation from compliant technologies
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. coal-fired generation, capacity, and capacity factors
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Low Oil and Gas SupplyReference
High Oil and Gas Supply
U.S. electric generating U.S. total electricity capacity generationAEO2021 oil and gas supply casesgigawatts billion kilowatthours
coal-fired generation
coal-fired capacity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. capacity factor for coal-fired generationAEO2021 oil and gas supply casespercentage
2020history projections
Low Oil and Gas SupplyReference
High Oil and Gas Supply
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
$24
$28
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020 history projections
natural gas prices
coal-fired capacity
Low Oil and Gas supplyReferenceHigh Oil and Gas supply
U.S. electric generating capacity AEO2021 oil and gas supply casesgigawatts
Average delivered natural gas prices to the electric power sector
2020 dollars per million British thermal units
U.S. coal-fired generating capacity relative to natural gas prices
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2030 20500
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2030 20500
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2001 2021 2041
2020
projections
U.S. coal production by region, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Reference casemillion short tons
Low Oil and Gas Supply casemillion short tons
Coal production by U.S. region
High Oil and Gas Supply casemillion short tons
totalWestAppalachiaInterior
2020
projections
2020
projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
new combined cycle (natural gas)coalexisting combined cycle (natural gas)oil and natural gas steamcombustion turbine (natural gas)
2020history projections
Capacity factor for U.S. fossil fuel-fired plants
AEO2021 Reference casepercentage
Note: New combined-cycle (natural gas) plants are assumed to come online in 2023. New builds as shown are multi-shaft combined-cycle units. Existing combined cycle units include both multi-shaft and single-shaft; 12 gigawatts of new single-shaft combined-cycle units are included in existing.
U.S. fossil fuel-fired plant capacity factors
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Transportation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
motor gasolinedistillate fuel oiljet fuelelectricityother
Transportation sector consumption by mode
AEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Transportation sector energy consumption
light-dutyvehiclesmedium- and heavy-duty vehiclesaircommerciallight trucksrailmarineother
Transportation sector consumption by fuel
AEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections other
compressed and liquid natural gas
electricity
residual fuel oil
other petroleum
pipeline fuel natural gas
Transportation sector consumption of minor petroleum and alternative fuels
AEO2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units
Transportation sector minor petroleum and alternative fuels consumption
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2020 2030 2040 2050
otherpassenger raillight-duty vehicles
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2020 2030 2040 2050
otherbusesmedium- and heavy-duty vehiclesmarinefreight rail
Delivered electricity by mode
AEO2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units
Delivered compressed and liquefied natural gas
by mode
AEO2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units
Transportation sector delivered electricity and natural gas
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Passenger and freight travel by mode
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010 2030 2050
2020
projections
Rail and domestic shipping AEO2021 Reference casetrillion ton-miles traveled
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Light-duty vehicle sales by technology/fuel type
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
otherelectric hybrid plug-in electrichybrid
battery electricdieselflex fuelgasoline
Light-duty vehicle sales by technology/fuelAEO2021 Reference casemillions of vehicles
0
1
2
3
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
New vehicle sales of battery-powered vehiclesAEO2021 Reference casemillions of vehicles
total battery electricincluding 100-, 200-, 300-mileelectric vehicles
electric hybrid 300-mile electric
200-mile electricplug-in electric hybrid 100-mile electric
2020history projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Light-duty fuel economy by vehicle typeAEO2021 Reference casemiles per gallon
2020history projections
car
combined
light truck
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Heavy-duty fuel economy AEO2021 Reference casemiles per gallon
2020history projections Classes 2b–3
Classes 4–6
Classes 7–8
On-road vehicle fuel economy
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Light-duty vehicle average fuel economyAEO2021 Reference case miles per gallon
2020history projections
0
5
10
15
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Light-duty vehicle miles traveled per licensed driverAEO2021 Reference casethousand miles
2020history projections
Light-duty vehicle fuel economy and per capita travel
new light-duty vehicles
total light-duty vehicle stock
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
Air travel energy use by mode
cargo
domestic flights
international flights
general aviation
Energy use by air mode
AEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
Passenger aircraft sales and jet fuel efficiencyU.S. passenger jet sales by body typeAEO2021 Reference case individual aircraft sold
U.S. passenger jet fuel efficiency indexAEO2021 Reference case 2019 = 1.0
narrow body aircraft
wide body aircraft
revenue passenger-miles
revenue passenger-miles per gallon
energy consumption
regional aircraft
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
Active versus parked passenger and cargo stock
AEO2021 Reference case thousand active and parked thousand active
passenger aircraft cargo aircraft
Revenue passenger-miles Average passengerAEO2021 Reference case load factors trillion passenger-miles percentage
Passenger travel demand and aircraft stock
0%
30%
60%
90%
0
1
2
3
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
passenger load factors
revenue-passenger miles
active passenger aircraft
active cargo aircraft
parked passenger aircraft
Note: Load factors are weighted by domestic and U.S.-originating or U.S.-bound flights’ relative share of revenue passenger-miles.
Buildings
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
Buildings delivered energy consumption
AEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
Buildings sector delivered energy consumption
total buildings sector delivered energy consumption
residential buildings
commercial buildings
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Residential sector delivered energy consumptionAEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
2020
history projections
Residential and commercial buildings energy consumption
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Commercial sector delivered energy consumptionAEO2021 Reference casequadrillion British thermal units
2020
history projections
electricitynatural gaspetroleum and other liquidsother
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Pacific West South Central
East South Central
SouthAtlantic
West North Central
East North Central
MiddleAtlantic
New England
Mountain
2020 2050
population
millions, U.S. population
Change in population and residential housing stocks
Census divisionsNewEngland
Middle Atlantic
SouthAtlantic
EastSouth
Central
WestSouth
Central
EastNorth
Central
WestNorth
CentralMountain
Pacific
populationmobilemultifamilysingle-family
Residential housing unit and population changes by region and type in 2020 and 2050
AEO2021 Reference casemillions, residential housing units
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
1.1%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
0.6%
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%
0.8%
health care
food sales/service
lodging
other
assembly
education
warehouse
mercantile/service
office
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
billion square feet
Commercial buildings floorspace growthCommercial floorspace in 2020 and growth in floorspace from 2020 to 2050
AEO2021 Reference casepercentage growth
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) (2020 to 2050)
total floorspace in 2020(billion square feet)
CAGR
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Population-weighted heating and cooling degree days
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2020
2050
Population-weighted heating degree days by census division AEO2021 Reference casethousand degree days
Pac
ific
Wes
t Sou
th
Cen
tral
Wes
t Nor
th
Cen
tral
Eas
t Nor
th
Cen
tral
Eas
t Sou
th
Cen
tral
Sou
th A
tlant
ic
Mid
dle
Atla
ntic
New
Eng
land
Mou
ntai
n
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2020
2050
Population-weighted cooling degree days by census division AEO2021 Reference casethousand degree days
Pac
ific
Wes
t Nor
thC
entr
al
Wes
t Sou
thC
entr
al
Eas
t Nor
th
Cen
tral
Eas
t Sou
th
Cen
tral
Sou
th A
tlant
ic
Mid
dle
Atla
ntic
New
Eng
land
Mou
ntai
n
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Residential and commercial electricity and natural gas prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricity prices in the residential and commercialsectors AEO2021 Reference case2020 cents per kilowatthour
2020history projections
residential
commercial
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020history projections
Natural gas prices in the residential and commercial sectorsAEO2021 Reference case2020 dollars per thousand cubic feet
residential
commercial
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2020 2030 2040 2050
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
Residential and commercial energy intensityIndexed commercial delivered energy intensityAEO2021 Reference caseindexed annual energy use per square foot 2019 = 1.0
Indexed residential delivered energy intensity AEO2021 Reference caseindexed annual energy use per household2019 = 1.0
purchased electricity
total delivered energy
natural gas
purchased electricity
total delivered energy
natural gas
2020
history projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0 10 20 30 40
cooking
lighting
televisions, computers
laundry and dishwashing
refrigeration and freezing
space cooling
water heating
other uses
space heating
20202050
0 10 20 30 40
cooking
lighting
computers, office equipment
ventilation
refrigeration
space cooling
water heating
other uses
space heating
20202050
Residential energy intensity by end use
AEO2021 Reference case
Commercial energy intensity by end use
AEO2021 Reference case
Note: Intensities reflect all energy sources consumed, including both purchased electricity and electricity produced onsite for own use.
Residential and commercial overall energy intensity by end use
million British thermal units per household thousand British thermal units per square foot
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0 2 4 6
cooking
lighting
televisions, computers
laundry and dishwashing
refrigeration and freezing
space cooling
water heating
other uses
space heating
20202050
0 2 4 6
cooking
lighting
computers, office equipment
ventilation
refrigeration
space cooling
water heating
other uses
space heating
20202050
Residential electricity intensity by end use
AEO2021 Reference case
Commercial electricity intensity by end use
AEO2021 Reference case
Note: Intensities reflect both purchased electricity and electricity produced onsite for own use.
Residential and commercial electricity intensity by end use
kilowatthours per household kilowatthours per square foot
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
2020 2030 2040 2050
Indexed commercial service provided per square foot of floorspace
