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Annual Vets Conference
Neenah, WI05-08-13
Real GDP Growth
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Pct
Cha
nge
At A
nnua
l Rat
esGross Domestic Product
Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis . Shaded area indicates period of recession
Actual
1Q 2013 rose by 2.5%, 1st estimate, most inputs were positive, with only govt spending (sequester) and import growth negatively influencing GDP
3% would be “ok”, 5% would be “good” growth. So really not too bad, all things considered.
Source: The Conference Board
LEI down 0.1% in March, CEI
also down (drop in income). Loss
in govt spending
means private sector may
struggle to hold up growth.
•Consumer Sentiment (UMich) down 2.2 pts in April. Consumer Confidence (The Conference Board) up 6.2 pts in April.
•Consumers feel more positive about housing, but less confident about job growth over half expect inflation to exceed wage gains. Sequester and payroll taxes likely drag on growth.
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve
Some state and local indicators
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012
2013
2012 Pre-Bench
Unemployment Rate
2012-2013 Unemployment Rates, Wisconsin
Rate: 7.6%
Rates below year-ago levels (not seasonally adjusted)
Labor force up slightly, employed up slightly, unemployed down slightly (0.5%)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
18-34 35-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Veteran
Nonveteran
2011 Vets/Nonvets Age
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18-34 Vet, 18-34
35-54 Vet, 35-54
55-64 Vet, 55-64
Not in LF
Unemployed
Employed
2012 Vets Labor Force, Wisconsin
2,550,000
2,600,000
2,650,000
2,700,000
2,750,000
2,800,000
2,850,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012
2013
2012 Pre-Bench
Total Nonfarm Jobs
2012-2013 Wisconsin Nonfarm Jobs
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Up over the year, 9,300. Mfg up 7,800,
leisure and hospitality up 10,000,
retail trade down -6,400
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Man
ufac
turi
ng
Nat
Res
/Min
ing/
Cons
tr
Fina
ncia
l
Info
rmati
on
Who
lesa
le
Educ
ation
al a
nd H
ealt
h
Leis
ure/
Hos
pita
lity
Tran
s/W
areh
ousi
ng
Reta
il
Prof
/Bus
Svc
s
National
Industry
Regional
Total
Source: CES, shift-share analysis – Scott Hodek, OEA
Shift Share Analysis, 2011-2012 Annual, WI-US
Source: WI DWD OEA Projections
326,250
422,900
6,630
46,060
51,740
147,980
16,890
23,660
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
Less than high school
High school diploma orequivalent
Some college, no degree
Postsecondary non-degree award
Associate’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Master’s degree
Doctoral or professionaldegree
Projected Job Openings 2010 - 2020 by Education Needed for Entry
Growth Openings
Replacement Openings
Total Openings
Share of the 25-and-over population with
no high school diploma or equiv.
Sources: Data from Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2006-2010Mapping by WI DWD Office of Economic Advisors
Share of the 25-and-over Population with a Bachelor’s or
more
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Less than highschool
graduate
High schoolgraduate(includes
equivalency)
Some collegeor associate's
degree
Bachelor'sdegree or
higher
Veteran
Nonveteran
76,910
78,630
35,660
42,020
1,350
135,350
112,170
48,470
31,860
128,310
20,180
32,290
64,720
19,690
50,950
4,080
11,710
9,280
14,310
25,250
50,260
40,710
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Transport. & material moving occs
Production occs
Installation, maint. & repair occs
Construction & extraction occs
Farming, fishing & forestry occs
Office & admin. support occs
Sales & related occs
Personal care & service occs
Bldg & grounds cleaning & maint. occs
Food prep. & serving related occs
Protective service occs
Healthcare support occs
Healthcare practitioners & tech. occs
Arts, design, ent., sports & media occs
Edu., training & library occs
Legal occs
Community & social services occs
Life, physical & social science occs
Architecture & engineering occs
Computer & mathematical occs
Business & financial operations occs
Management occs
Projected Job Openings 2010-2020 by Occupational Group
Projected growth openings
Projected replacement openings
Total projected openings
Source: WI DWD OEA Projections
The Aging Workforce
Median Age in 1990
Median Age in 1991
Median Age in 1992
Median Age in 1993
Median Age in 1994
Median Age in 1995
Median Age in 1996
Median Age in 1997
Median Age in 1998
Median Age in 1999
Median Age in 2000
Median Age in 2001
Median Age in 2002
Median Age in 2003
Median Age in 2004
Median Age in 2005
Median Age in 2006
Median Age in 2007
Median Age in 2008
Median Age in 2009
Median Age in 2010
Median Age in 2011
Source: Original data from WI Dept. of Health Services, Wisconsin Interactive Health Statistics (WISH) query , http://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/wish/ 4/31/2013 Mapping by WI Dept. of Administration, Division of Intergovernmental Relations, Demographic Services Center (608) 266-1755.
1.29
1.25
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Population Ages 15-64 per QCEW Job and Projected Job
Source: WI DOA population projections 2010-2040; BLS, QCEW; and DWD, OEA employment Projections, 2010-2020
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Wisconsin Labor Force Entrants and Exiters - 2010 to 2040Source: WI DOA, Demographic Services
18 Year-Olds 65 Year-Olds
Other Trends
• Sequestration – We’re the big news right now, and our own worst enemy
• The Euro zone• China’s economy
For copies of this PowerPoint or if you have other questions please contact:
Scott HodekRegional Economist – Serving West Central WisconsinOffice of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce [email protected]
Website: dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea