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Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature,...

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Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations – Trace gases – Temperature, land and ocean – Precipitation – Sea level Attribution Models and predictions Uncertainties
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Page 1: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

AnthropoceneIntroduction to Meteorology, spring 2011

• Observations– Trace gases– Temperature, land and ocean– Precipitation– Sea level

• Attribution

• Models and predictions

• Uncertainties

Page 2: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era

Watt’s steam engineBegin industrial period

Page 3: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Global mean surface temperatures have increased

Page 4: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 5: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

= diurnal temperature range

Reference Interval

Page 6: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 7: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Precipitation patterns have changed

Page 8: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Sea Levels have risen

Page 9: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of

land ice and ice sheets

Page 10: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 11: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

AtmosphericWindow

~290 K

Recall:1) Molecules absorb different radiationwavelengths.

2) Black body radiation depends on temperature ofobject observed.

2) Wien’s law - Max wavelength (µm) ≈ 3000/T(K)

Page 12: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 13: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 14: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 15: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Svante Arrhenius (1859 -1927)

• Swedish• 1884 PhD dissertation electro-

chemistry – did not impress advisor, 150 pages, 85 theses.

• 1896 – Suggested that CO2 could warm the planet, from his work on ice ages. Emission of CO2 may prevent future ice ages.

• 1903 – Nobel prize in chemistry for work in his dissertation. Most of his theses would be unquestioned today

Page 16: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 17: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)Established by WMO and UNEP and confirmed by UN general assembly

December 1988 Four reports issued so far

• 1990 human emissions are increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, resulting increase 0.3 °C per decade 21st century.

• 1995 discernible human influence on global climate

• 2001 surface temperature projected to increase 1.4 - 5.8 C 1990 -2100, and sea level to rise by 0.1 - 0.9 meters

• 2007 (Nobel peace prize) Climate warming unequivocal. Most increase in global temperatures since mid-20th century is (>90%) due to increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

• The fifth one is underway. 831 authors selected from 3000 nominations. 3-4 reviewers for each chapter.

Page 18: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 19: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities

Page 20: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
Page 21: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

Page 22: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

Page 23: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Page 24: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

2020s

2050s

2080s

Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and

sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees

Page 25: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Uncertainties

• Changes in atmospheric water vapor– Changes in cloudiness– Changes in albedo

• Carbon budgets

• Aerosol particles– Direct effects– Impact on clouds– Black carbon

Page 26: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

There are fast and slow processes in the carbon cycle

Page 27: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Atmosphere

Estimated Fossil Deposits

6.362.3

92.3

60

90

3.3

Plants

Soil

Oceans

750

500

2000

39,000

About 16,0001.6

This is the “greenhouse” problem

Driven by fossil fuel emissions

…and land clearing

The oceans and land vegetation are currently taking up 4.6 Gt C per year

The KP seeks to reduce total emissions by about 0.2

Humans are

perturbing the carbon

cycle

UnitsGt C for stores & Gt C y-1 for fluxes

Page 28: Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

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