The World is
Changing:
Anticipate and
Adapt
KPMG Global Defense
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■ Demographics
■ Rise of the individual
■ Enabling technology
■ Economic
interconnectedness
■ Public debt
■ Economic power shift
■ Climate change
■ Resource stress
■ Urbanization
Megatrends changing our future world
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authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved2
Key risks to Defense
Increased risk to
borders
Increased frequency
and scale of cyber
attacksIncreased risk of
terror threats
and attacks
CHANGING
NATURE
OF
CONFLICTS
Increased risk of
internal and
interstate conflicts
Defense will be required
to innovate and reform its
approach to security to respond
effectively to both anticipated
and inconceivable threats.
CIVIL SECURITY
RESOURCE SECURITY
CYBER SECURITY
BORDER SECURITY
SECURITY
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authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved4
Defense will be more susceptible to cyber attacks than ever before
as disruptive technologies evolve and the value of big data grows.
Defense will need to grow their capability to
protect their nation and their own operations
from the potentially disabling impacts of
cyber attacks.
The command and control of most forces, the intelligence and
logistics on which they depend, and their weapons technologies,
all depend on computer systems and networks.William J. Lynn III, US Deputy Defense Secretary
Already, cyber attacks account for USD300
Billion to USD1 Trillion in global losses. $
Cyber weapons are in their infancy and are expected to rapidly
evolve over the next decade, review of policy at the executive
levels of government will be required to address this relatively
new dimension of warfare.
Source: SDI, “Global Cyber Security Market 2014 – 2024”
Source: SDI, “Global Cyber Security Market 2014 – 2024”
Greater use of commercial wireless technology decreases cyber
security effectiveness, as the number of nodes to be monitored in
critical infrastructure and military networks expands.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved5
The future scale of war is unimaginable, given that even now
disruptive technologies and virtual networks broaden the exposure
and response to conflicts beyond sovereign borders.
Defense will need to redefine the borders it
protects to include both physical and virtual
worlds, requiring a revolution to our current
view of Defense and its war fighting capability.
As conflict in the cyber arena increases, critical infrastructure
becomes exposed to threats from both enemy states and non-
state actors in a new manner. Cyber attacks transcend borders,
infiltrating nuclear power plants or disrupting financial systems.
Social media has
accelerated recent
uprisings in the developing
world, playing a role in
three main dynamics:
Organizing protests
Shaping the narrative
Putting pressure on the
international community
Terror organizations are currently using websites and popular
social media channels to recruit and gather intelligence.
Conflict over resources and oversized populations of unemployed
youth will drive increased civil unrest and will necessitate
continued focus on traditional sovereign border protection.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved6
Contention over resources is anticipated to increase the threat of
internal and interstate conflicts and will necessitate a greater focus
on border and resource security measures.
Multinational Defense structures and forces will
be required to protect the long term sustainability
of key resources before they reach critical levels,
provoking interstate disputes.
The world’s major belt of water stress lies across northern Africa,
the Middle East, central and southern Asia, and northern China -
this is also the zone of the largest projected population growth
during the next 15-20 years.
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authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved7
The power of network enabling technologies cannot be understated
as it provides individuals with disproportionate power and arms them
with the capability to threaten an entire nation or global community.
EUROPE on high alert, making use of all available forces with
up to 300 soldiers mobilized in Brussels, Antwerp and
elsewhere.
BELGIUM DEPLOYS TROOPS FOLLOWING ANTI-TERROR RAID
BBC News Europe, 17 January 2015
AUSTRALIANS can expect greater security at airports,
large public events, government buildings and ports as the
government has raised the public alert of a terror threat to
‘high’ for the first time in history.
TONY ABBOTT RAISES AUSTRALIA’S TERROR THREAT TO HIGH
News.com.au, 12 September 2014
A PROMINENT feature of many terrorist attacks in recent
months is their independent, spontaneous, unplanned nature –
sometimes called the work of lone wolves.
CONFRONTING SPONTANEOUS TERRORIST ATTACKS
Canada Free Press, 24 February 2015
Defense will be more involved in civil security
as threatening individuals or groups leverage
network enabling technologies to become
internationally integrated global organizations.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved8
Defense
preparedness and
capability is at risk of
falling behind as the
nature of future
conflicts, key players
and accessible
instruments of war
evolve at a rapid
pace.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved9
Defense must consider how their organization’s skills and
capabilities need to adapt to be ready to fight in anticipated future
conflicts and respond to inconceivable threats.
VISION
Strategy
Flexibility and “paradigm” thinking
Outcomes and metrics
Long-term planning and scenario exercises
Behavioural insights
Technology adoption
Skills & capability
Effective stakeholder engagement
Systems thinking
International awareness
Financial sophistication
Risk assessment and change management
Structures & systems
Networked
Locally empowered
Internationally integrated
Highly integrated
Flexible and adaptive
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved10
Focus areas for Defense
Strategy
Flexibility and “paradigm” thinking
Outcomes and metrics
Long-term planning and scenario exercises
Behavioural insights
Technology adoption
Grow cyber warfare attack and
defense skills and capability.
Drive multinational knowledge
sharing and alignment of policy and
governance to identify and eliminate
cyber threats.
Develop a cyber security strategy to
protect Defense capability and
national infrastructure from network
or system threats.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved11
Focus areas for Defense
CYBER SECURITY
Structures & systems
Networked
Locally empowered
Internationally integrated
Highly integrated
Flexible and adaptive
Drive multinational collaboration to
identify and manage global risks and
threats.
Understand multinational capability to
respond to global risks and threats.
Drive multinational alignment of policy
and governance to ensure a common
approach to the mitigation and
elimination of global risks and threats.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved12
Focus areas for Defense
Skills & capability
Effective stakeholder engagement
Systems thinking
International awareness
Financial sophistication
Risk assessment and change management
Grow capability while managing
within a constrained budget.
Consider alternative and non-
traditional procurement models (e.g.
outsourcing, joint venture, shared
ownership, leasing).
Procure modular and flexible
capability that can be integrated with
existing and future technology.
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved13
Focus areas for Defense
Effective stakeholder engagement
Systems thinking
International awareness
Financial sophistication
Risk assessment and change management
Develop a multi-dimensional,
strategic planning capability that
considers global interdependencies.
Understand the local and global
unintended and intended
consequences of actions through
scenario analysis techniques.
Adopt a systems thinking culture that
appreciates the full extent to which
global interconnectedness impacts
Defense and its operations. Skills & capability
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any
authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved14
Let us share our global Defense experience with you.
Contact us.
Ken Drover
Lead Partner
Global Defense
+61 3 9288 6623
Contact:
© 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent
firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services.
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accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information
without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
Publication Name: The World is Changing: Anticipate and Adapt
Date: March 2015
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