Anticipatory GovernancePractical Upgrades

Leon S. Fuerthwith Evan M. H. Faber

The Project on Forward Engagement ® All Rights Reserved.

Equipping the Executive Branch to cope with Increasing Speed and Complexity of Major Challenges

• Originate from isolated causes that are clearly identifiable and fall within distinct bureaucratic categories

• Can be dissected into isolated chunks addressed, and pieced back together;

• Consequences are generally proportionate to their causes (for every input, there is a proportionate output);

• Fixtures can be put in place for permanent solutions.

• Result from concurrent interactions among multiple systems of events, and they erode the customary boundaries that differentiate bureaucratic concepts and missions;

• Cannot be broken apart and solved piece-by-piece. They must be understood and addressed as a system;

• Do not automatically stabilize, but intrinsically unravel into chaos if not systemically managed;

• Cannot be permanently solved. Instead, they morph into new problems as the result of interventions to deal with them.

Acceleration and Complexity

Complicated Problems

Complex Problems

Anticipatory Governance

Foresight-Policy Integration

Networked Governance

Feedback for Applied Learning

Strict Criteria for Practicality

– very light on resources

– executable under existing Presidential authorities

– compatible with existing White House processes

Gordon Adams Former Associate Director National Security Programs, Office of Management and Budget

Robert D. Blackwill Former Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning

Thomas Fingar Former Chair of the National Intelligence Council

Michèle Flournoy Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

James R. Jones Former Ambassador and Member of the U.S. House of Representatives

Robert M. Kimmitt Former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury

Alan J. Kreczko Former Legal Advisor to the National Security Council

James M. Loy Former Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security

John E. McLaughlin Former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence

Joseph S. Nye Former Chair of the National Intelligence Council

Anne-Marie Slaughter Former Director of Policy Planning, U.S. Department of State

Mary C. Yates Former Senior Director for Strategic Planning, National Security Council

Dov S. Zakheim Former Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller)

David M. Abshire President and CEO, Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress

Graham Allison Director, Belfer Center, The John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Hans Binnendijk Former Vice President for Research and Applied Learning, National Defense University

Richard J. Danzig Chairman, Center for a New American Security

Richard Fontaine President, Center for a New American Security

Jerome C. Glenn CEO, The Millennium Project

Robert Kagan Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institution

Ellen Laipson President and CEO, The Henry L. Stimson Center

Timothy C. Mack President, World Future Society

Neera Tanden President, Center for American Progress

Madeleine K. Albright Former Secretary of State

Charlene Barshefsky Former U.S. Trade Representative

Samuel R. Berger Former National Security Advisor

Dennis C. Blair Former Director of National Intelligence

Carol M. Browner Former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency

Zbigniew K. Brzezinski Former National Security Advisor

William S. Cohen Former Secretary of Defense

Thomas A. Daschle Former Senate Majority Leader

Stephen J. Hadley Former National Security Advisor

James L. Jones Former National Security Advisor

Michael “Mickey” Kantor Former Secretary of Commerce; former U.S. Trade Representative

Thomas F. McLarty III Former White House Chief of Staff

Thomas R. Pickering Former Ambassador to the United Nations

R. James Woolsey Former Director of Central Intelligence

Endorsers

Anticipatory Governance

Foresight-Policy Integration

Networked Governance

Feedback for Applied Learning

Foresight-Policy Integration

–The capacity to visualize alternative futures–Not prediction, vision or

intelligence–Actionability: tied to

current decisions

– Organizing a Foresight System [A-1]

– Brokering between Foresight and Policy [A-2]

– Incentivizing Foresight [A-3]

– Training Professionals for Foresight [A-4]

Networked Governance

–Flatten hierarchies–“Commanders’ intent”–Strategic behavior–Manage-to-mission–Budget-to-mission

– Networking the Strategy / Policy Planning Offices [B-1]

– Leveraging the Deputies’ and IPC process [B-2]

– Engaging the Cabinet Strategically [B-3]

– Networking Coordinators for Cross-agency Missions [B-4]

– Budgeting for Strategic Impact [B-5]

– Synchronizing National Strategy [B-6]

– Systematizing Strategic Priorities [B-7]

– Reformatting the Dialogue with Congress [B-8]

Feedback for Applied Learning

–Match expectations to reality–Monitor and adjust

policy to match circumstances–Learn from results

– Identifying Explicit Precepts to Track Policy Execution [C-1]

– Establishing a Venue for Feedback [C-2]

– Continuously Routing Triggered Indicators[C-3]

– Diagnostic Reviews of Consequences [C-4]

The Stakes are High

–The future will not resemble the past (or the present)

–Government needs to catch up or risk being overrun

–Anticipatory Governance is PRACTICAL» Doable» Affordable» Politically neutral» Should be the basis for action

About the Project on Forward Engagement ®The Project on Forward Engagement was established in 2001 by Leon Fuerth to explore methods for incorporating systematic foresight into the US federal policy process, and for configuring government systems to deal with challenges that are “complex” (rather than just “complicated”). Leon Fuerth’s career in the United States government spanned more than three decades, including eleven years as a Foreign Service Officer, fourteen years on Capitol Hill, and eight years in the White House as the National Security Advisor to Vice President Al Gore. In the Clinton White House, Fuerth served on both the Principals and Deputies Committees of the National Security Council and the National Economic Council. Operating jointly at the National Defense University and the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, the Project is supported by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the National Defense University, and has also been supported by the George Washington University and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Analysis, opinions and proposals produced by the Project on Forward Engagement and contained herein do not represent the views or opinions of any of its supporting institutions. Forward Engagement is non-partisan, not-for-profit, and policy-neutral. The Project is exclusively concerned with the systems and processes by which policy is produced and implemented. More information is available at http://www.forwardengagement.org

Analysis, opinions and proposals contained herein reflect the views of Leon Fuerth. They do not represent the views or opinions of the George Washington University, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, or the National Defense University.

The Project on Forward Engagement ® All Rights Reserved.