National Aeronautics and Space Administration
“Designing the NewWorlds technology downselect process”Designing the New Worlds technology downselect process
‐ or ‐
ram
The road to 2020 goes through 2015
ation Progr
D. Hudgins, W. Traub, M. Devirian, J. Kasting
anet Explora D. Hudgins, W. Traub, M. Devirian, J. Kasting
ExoP
la
8 January 2011 1ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Topics
• Implications of Decadal Survey (completed) Hudgins
• Planning Framework, Constraints, Budget Devirian
ram • Science Goals, Opportunities Traub
ation Progr
• ExoPAG Plans Kasting
anet Explora
• Discussion All
ExoP
la • Discussion All
8 January 2011 2ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Planning FrameworkWhy We’re Here
• Astro2010, New Worlds New Horizons, has provided guidance on the path forward:– “The committee’s proposed program is designed to allow a
habitable‐exoplanet imaging mission to be well formulated in time for consideration by the 2020 decadal survey.”
ram
ation Progr
• We need to map the path through the next decade with a new worlds mission starting shortly after 2020 Decadal Survey.
anet Explora Survey.
ExoP
la
8 January 2011 3ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration … excerpts
• “….a decadal survey implementation advisory committee (DSIAC) should be charged to produce annual reports to the agencies the Office of Management and Budget and theagencies, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Office of Science and Technology Policy, as well as a mid‐decade review of the progress made.”
ram
• “…. With the success of Pathfinder and a decision by ESA to move forward LISA could launch by 2025 ”
ation Progr move forward, LISA could launch by 2025.
h h d f ld (?)
anet Explora – LISA, perhaps IXO, go ahead of a New Worlds mission (?)
– “Flagships follow flagships” – J. Morse– “We need to get this right or our great‐grandchildren will fly New
ExoP
la Worlds” – M. Devirian
8 January 2011 4ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration … excerpts
• “…. In the first part of the decade NASA should support competed technology development to advance multiple possible technologies for a next decade planet imager andpossible technologies for a next‐decade planet imager, and should accelerate measurements of exozodiacal light levels that will determine the size and complexity of such missions.
ram
The committee recommends an initial NASA funding level of $4 million per year so as to achieve a clear set of design requirements and technology gateways to be passed.”
ation Progr q gy g y p
– ExEP Technology and Mission Concept budget (President’s 2011 Request)
anet Explora Request)
Totals and subtotals may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Prior PY (2009) 2010 Enacted
BY (2011) BY + 1 (2012)
BY + 2 (2013)
BY + 3 (2014)
BY + 4 (2015)
Technology and Mission
ExoP
la
8 January 2011 5ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
Concepts 6000 5900 6400 9600 11000 11370 11833
National Aeronautics and Space Administration … excerpts
• “If, by mid‐decade, a DSIAC review determines that sufficient information has become or is becoming available on key issues such as planet frequency and exozodiacal dust distribution asuch as planet frequency and exozodiacal dust distribution a technology down‐select should be made and the level of support increased to enable a mission capable of studying
ram
nearby Earth‐like planets to be mature for consideration by the 2020 decadal survey, with a view to a start early in the 2020 decade. The committee estimates that an additional
ation Progr
$100 million will be required for the mission‐specific development.”
anet Explora
• Calibration: – SIM Technology completed: ~$500M, 10 years
ExoP
la – TPF Technology and mission design: ~$150M, 7 years
8 January 2011 6ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Plan Elements according to Astro2010
• 1st, understand the demographics of other planetary systems, in particular to determine over a wide range of orbital distances what fraction of systems contain Earth‐like planets– WFIRST to complement Kepler
• 2nd, characterize the level of zodiacal light present so as to determine, in a statistical sense if not for individual prime targets, at what level starlight
ram
scattered from dust will hamper planet detection– Nulling interferometers on NASA‐supported ground‐based telescopes (for
example, Keck, and the Large Binocular Telescope) and/or on suborbital, f
ation Progr SMEX, or MIDEX platforms could be used to constrain zodiacal light levels.
• “After these essential measurements are made, the need for a dedicated target finder can be determined and the approach for a space‐imaging i i ill b l ”
anet Explora mission will be clear.”
ExoP
la
8 January 2011 7ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10 Year Planning Framework
Astro 2010
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
FY12 Budget Process
ram
WFIRST
ExEP Technology & Mission Concepts
ation Progr ExEP Technology & Mission Concepts
Mission Focused
anet Explora DSIAC Review of Exoplanets
2020 Decadal Survey Pass This DecadalDesign Reference Mission
ExoP
la
y
New Worlds Mission Start (pending LISA & IXO)8 January 2011 8ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
Phase A
Pass This Gate is Job 1 New Worlds #1
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Requirements on the Plan
• What is needed to pass the Gate?– Technology
Exoplanet census– Exoplanet census– Exozodi– Community alignment on approach
ram
• How do we fund activities to achieve this?– Minimal ExEP funding – choices will have to be made on a combination
ation Progr g
of scientific, technological and programmatic criteria.
– Downselect on other than lab demonstration
anet Explora
• At $10M/year, let alone $4M/year, insufficient to demonstrate.
– The sooner we can thin the herd, the more we can focus on the
ExoP
la
,hardiest survivors.
8 January 2011 9ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration A 5‐Year Horizon
ExoPAG: SAG Reports
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
p
LBTI NullingWFIRST Exoplanet Requirements
ram
NW Concept Downselect(s) (?)
ation Progr
TDEMRound 1
anet Explora
Round 2Focused Technology and Concept Studies
ExoP
la “State of Exoplanets” ReportDSIAC Review/Report
8 January 2011 10ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Process Schematic
Team StudiesProgram Validations
η⊕ ηHZ
Concept α
Program ValidationsExoPAG EndorsementsSurvey
MissionsY NY Y Y Y X
ram
AdditionalData
-
⊗
Concept α Y N
Concept β
Y Y Y Y
YYY YNN
X
X
ation Progr ExoZodi
--
⊗Concept χ YYYY Y
YY
Y
Y YYY
anet Explora
Nearby StarsRV Stars
AstrometricSelections
Concept δ YYY YYY
ExoP
la RV Stars
ExoPAG Study and EndorsementsProgram Objectives
And Constraints
Selections
8 January 2011 11ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Process Diagram ‐ examples
Team StudiesProgram Validations
η⊕ ηHZ
External
Program ValidationsExoPAG EndorsementsSurvey
Missions
ram
Program Goalsn -HZ PlanetsX -Year Mission
D ll ⊗Internal
Coronagraph
Occulter
ation Progr y –Dollars
TRL 6 DateInternationals
⊗ Visual Interferometer
Infrared
anet Explora
Nearby StarsRV Stars
InfraredInterferometer
AstrometricSelections
ExoP
la RV Stars
ExoPAG Study and EndorsementsProgram Decision
Selections
8 January 2011 12ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
ram
ation Progr
SCIENCE GOALS & OPPORTUNITIESWes Traub
anet Explora SCIENCE GOALS & OPPORTUNITIES
ExoP
la
8 January 2011 13ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
ram
ation Progr
EXOPAG PLANJim Kasting
anet Explora EXOPAG PLAN
ExoP
la
8 January 2011 14ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
ram
ation Progr
DISCUSSION
anet Explora DISCUSSION
ExoP
la
8 January 2011 15ExoPAG 3 ‐ Downselect Process
