Presentation on

“Draft Wind Vision-200 GW by 2032”

Coverage

Importance of wind sector

Reduce import dependence

Energy Access

Reduce GHG emissions

Case for wind energy over other RE technologies

Wind Potential

International experience

Target setting exercise

Financing requirement

Inherent benefits from wind targets

Identified themes and consensus building

2 Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation

Energy sector in India-Import dependent

Fifth-largest energy consumer in the world

Importing 36% of the energy demand resulting in an import bill is

in excess of $100 billion worth of fuel every year.

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2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

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Petroleum imports Other imports Trade Deficit

India will have to import 84.4% of its energy demand in 2047, as per Planning

Commission recent study on India Energy scenario 2047

Energy sector in India-Poor Energy Access

At 620 kg of oil equivalent , India’s per capita energy

consumption is one of the lowest in the world. (1,807 for

China, 1,361 for Brazil, and 4,927 for Russia)

44.7% of the rural households without access to electricity

75 million of total households without access to electricity

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India has wind energy resources in abundance, can be tapped and used locally

(SMALL WIND TURBINES)

Energy sector in India-GHG emission reduction

India is the 4th largest emitter of GHG, next only to China, USA, and the

European Union.

India’s target is to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20%–25%

by 2020.

In India, the four largest sectors in terms of GHG emissions are energy

(58% of the net CO2 equivalent emissions), industry (22%), agriculture

(17%), and waste (3%)

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58% 22%

17%

3% Energy

Industry

Agriculture

Waste

Renewable energy can contribute significantly to reducing India’s carbon footprint.

Case for wind power -Grid Parity

Grid Parity of a technology is defined at a stage when its levelised tariff is less than or equal to price of purchasing power from grid.

Grid Parity can further be defined under two cases

At generation end

At consumer end

Wind projects in India now offer competitive tariff both at the generation end (compared with recent thermal bids) & consumer end (compared with average billing rate of DISCOMs)

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Generation end-Grid Parity

The higher cost of tariff which was considered a major deterrent in acceptability of large scale renewable energy is no longer an issue with wind power, which has achieved grid parity.

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Recent thermal bids Vs Wind FIT

S No State 10% of Power Consumption

(MUs)

Wgt Avg. Marginal Cost of 10% most

costly power (Rs/unit)

1 Uttar

Pradesh 7396 5.26

2 Maharashtra 9965 4.16 3 Gujarat 6609 5.74 4 Rajasthan 4980 4.03 5 Karnataka 5520 5.27 6 Haryana 3726 3.34 7 Tamil Nadu 6326 8.16 8 Odisha 2268 3.85 9 Delhi 3641 4.75

10 Andhra Pradesh

8738 4.18

Total 59169 4.97

Wind FIT Vs Top 10% marginal cost (For 2012-13)

Wind energy is most cost effective among various RE technologies

(FIT in range of Rs 3.51 in TN, Rs 5.92 in MP).

Together with mature technology base, it offers ideal solution for India’s energy problems

Consumer end-Grid Parity at Intra-state

Wind Power offers a competitive source of power especially to Commercial and Industrial categories OA/captive consumers

Concerns are regarding

◦ Non uniformity on provisions for group captive/third party sale;

◦ cross subsidy charges,

◦ scheduling requirements,

◦ banking (period of settlement) and treatment of excess power/unbanked power

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Intra-state (Maharashtra)

Consumer end-Grid Parity at Inter-state

Inter-state sale of wind from resource rich states to resource scarce states is yet to emerge as a viable business model, with REC model struggling

States such as Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are over achieving their non-solar RPO targets.

Hence, viability of inter-state sale from these states is of extreme importance.

Principle of charging inter-state transmission charges on Rs/MW/month rather than Rs/kWh is increasing the OA charges

There is a need to rationalise inter-state OA charges.

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Inter-state (Tamil Nadu to Punjab) Inter-state (Karnataka to Delhi)

Wind potential assessment

A number of wind resource assessment studies for India have been carried in recent times including CWET, LBNL, Xi Lu et al, Hossain et al.

As part of our vision document, we have analysed potential assessment studies undertaken by CWET and LBNL

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Total on-shore wind potential as per recent assessment is around 2006 GW ( at 80 m) to 3121 GW (at 120 m).

Hence wind potential is not a constraint in scaling up wind

Study Onshore Potential (GW)

CWET 103 at 80 m

LBNL 2006 at 80 m

2605 at 100 m

3121 at 120 m

Xi Lu et al 1324

Jami Hossain et al 2076 at 80 m

Wind potential in India-Onshore

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Top 5 states contribute nearly 91% of the total estimated wind potential. With Karnataka at the top spot.

648 2312 3319 7251 3537

14497 13593 5961 14152 35071

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MW

Installed capacity (MW) Potential as per CWET (MW) Potential as per LBNL report (MW)

Wind potential in India-Offshore

Very little measures have been taken for commercial harnessing of such

off-shore potential in India in spite of vast coastline of 7600 km.

The draft off-shore MNRE Policy targets off shore wind farms in the

first instance up to 12 Nautical Miles from coast, with proposed vision to

harness up to 200 Nautical Miles.

The study undertaken by LBNL estimates total off-shore developable

potential in India of about 238 GW, at 100 m hub-height.

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Study Offshore Potential (GW)

LBNL 238

Xi Lu et al 502

Wind potential in India-Small wind turbines

The Global market for SWT is on an upswing, led by China, USA and the UK. Cumulative capacity stands at 670 MW

India on the other hand, has made little progress with installed capacity of 2.25 MW.

On a stand-alone basis, small wind systems are currently not widely accepted, with tariff of more than Rs 10/kWh

But there exists immense scope for SWT-solar hybrid systems, water pumping mills and other applications such as Telecom towers etc.

The largest market potential for SWT-hybrid lies in those 75 million households which still do not have access to electricity.

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There will be need for a continuous repowering program for India. Repowering for sub 500 kW turbines can be considered under Phase I

Installation of high capacity wind turbine can be seen as a common

trend worldwide and expected to grow further

Wind potential in India-Wind repowering

Target setting exercise

under

Wind Vision 2032

Global statistics and target addition plans

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0%

5%

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40%

45%

Spain Germany UK France Australia China* India

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RE

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Country

Wind Penetration level % total consumption (End of

2012)

Denmark 29.9%

Ireland 14.5%

Portugal 20.0%

Spain 17.8%

Internationally many countries have set long term renewable energy targets, with wind being significant contributor. Most countries have long term RE targets of 20-50% of RE contribution in the total consumption

Wind Penetration levels

RE Targets

China Example*

Plans to add 138 GW on-shore and 30 GW off-shore wind by 2020 Due to transmission bottlenecks and grid connectivity issues many projects are reporting delays. (About 80% of wind capacity is connected to grid)

Wind Targets in India

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As part of our Wind Power Vision-2032, NAPCC has been considered as base while deriving

wind targets till 2032

Wind Targets- Under India Energy scenarios 2047

IESS 2047 was launched by the Govt in partnership with the

Confederation of Indian Industry.

It projects various demand /supply scenarios to fulfill the goal

towards reducing India’s import dependence to 21% in 2047.

IESS 2047 in its aggressive scenario, proposes wind targets of the

order of 410 GW of onshore wind and around 141 GW of off-shore

wind by 2047

Level 1 scenario-67 GW by 2047 (BAU case)

Level 2 scenario-202 GW by 2047 (capacity addition to follow 12th and 13th plan trajectory)

Level 3 scenario-270 GW by 2047 (capacity addition to be higher than 12th and 13th plan trajectory)

Level 4 scenario-410 GW by 2047 (meet NAPCC target of 15% by 2022 and subsequent growth trajectory)

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Target assessment-“Wind Vision 2032”

26-Aug-14 19

• 15% of RE penetration level by 2020 is considered as starting point.

As part of our Wind Vision document, NAPCC targets has been considered as base case scenario

• RE penetration level to reach 27% of total consumption by FY 2031-32

We propose 1 % increase per annum in the RE share till FY 2032

• Wind to contribute 47-48% on the total RE penetration –Same as per its existing share.

• Wind penetration projected at 12.61 % of total consumption by FY 2031-32

Share of wind power in total RE generation will be as per its current share

• CUF is projected to increase from 17.40% in FY 2012-13 to 24.66% by FY 2031-32

Increase in CUF levels are projected as per historical performance

Proposed targets- “Wind Vision 2032”

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12th FYP

(FY 2016-

17)

13th FYP

(FY 2021-

22)

14th FYP

(FY 2026-

27)

15th FYP

(FY 2031-32)

Projected electricity requirement (TWh) 1246.94 1613.44 2106.65 2782.56

Renewable Targets (% of electricity req.) 10.47% 17.00% 22.00% 27.00%

Wind Targets (% of electricity req.) 4.89% 7.94% 10.27% 12.61%

Projected wind generation (TWh) 60.99 128.13 216.50 350.96

Cumulative wind capacity (incl. onshore,

offshore ,small wind and offshore) (GW) 39.62 79.42 128.36 202.89

1. This translates to average annual targets of 7.96 GW, 9.78 GW and 14.90 GW during 13th, 14th and 15th FYP respectively

2. The highest so far is around 3 GW in FY 2011-12

Summary of proposed targets…200 GW by 2032

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12th FYP

(FY 2016-17)

13th FYP

(FY 2021-22)

14th FYP

(FY 2026-27)

15th FYP

(FY 2031-32)

Onshore capacity (GW) 38.84 73.93 113.42 163.45

Repowering (GW) 0.78 3.49 8.62 19.37

Small wind (GW) 0.10

Offshore wind (GW) 2.00 6.32 19.97

Total in GW (Cumulative) 39.62 79.42 128.36 202.89

The CAGR for increase in capacity addition from 21.13 GW in FY 2013-14 to 202.89 GW in FY 2031-32, works out to 13.39%

Financing requirement

The financing requirement is worked out considering

Onshore wind capital cost of Rs 6.5 crore/MW (with 1.5% annual

escalation)

Offshore wind capital cost (incl. transmission cost) of Rs 20

crore/MW ( considering average cost in Indian market –(expected to

reach Rs 12-13 crore by FY 2022-23)

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12th FYP

(FY 2016-17)

13th FYP

(FY 2021-22)

14th FYP

(FY 2026-27)

15th FYP

(FY 2031-32)

Cumulative

For onshore (in Rs lakh crore) 1.37 3.22 4.48 7.36 16.53 For offshore (in Rs lakh crore) 0.00 0.40 0.46 1.12 1.98 Total 1.27 3.37 4.60 8.00 18.51

1. This translates to annual financing requirement of around Rs 1.1 lakh crore 2. Rs 36000 crore investments took place in wind sector in India during its best year in 2011

Inherent benefits from proposed wind targets

•Considering last 5 year average emission factor (0.79 tCO2/MWh) specified by CEA

•The GHG emission reduction potential over the useful life works out to 6158 Million metric ton of CO2 e (Carbon Dioxide equivalent) by FY 2031-32

Emission reduction potential

•Estimated based on average job creation of 4 person/MW as per MNRE HRD report.

•The total job creation potential is estimated at nearly 8.7 lakh till FY 2031-32. This translates to annual job creation potential of 48260.

Job creation potential

•Landed cost of imported cost -Rs 6000/ton with GCV of 5500kCal/kg and Heat rate of 2172 kcal/kWh as per CERC

•The cumulative import bill reduction potential over the useful life of wind projects is estimated at around Rs 18.4 lakh crore, considering the reduction is imports from coal (Or 116 million ton of oil equivalent )

Import bill reduction potential

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Identified Themes for Wind Discussion Forums

Wind sector - Key challenges (Five Themes)

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Project development

Zoning-Permitting

Land acquisition

Resource Assessment

Incentives and Financing

RPO compliance

FiT related concerns

Low cost financing

AD-GBI/Biding

Grid Integration

Physical infrastructure

Forecasting issues

Generation intermittency

New Business opportunities

Repowering

Offshore

Small wind

Hybrids

Manufacturing/R&D

Storage

Indigenization

We envisage four-five wind discussion forums targeted at above themes, starting with new business opportunities presented today

Objective is to build consensus

The objective is to evolve consensus around such aspects covered

under various themes

At each wind discussion forum, we will discuss-strengths,

opportunities, challenges and approaches/solutions to accelerated

development, and build consensus around the identified themes

Based on the discussions, we intent to present the final vision of Wind

Vision document to MNRE.

THANK YOU

Intra-state OA in Maharashtra

4.89

9.78

7.26

8.02

6.39

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Domestic LT Commercial

LT industrial HT industrial

Wind landed cost with CSS Wind landed cost without CSS

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Inter-state OA (Tamil Nadu to Punjab)

4.56

6.45

6.33

6.93

7.93

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Domestic Non-Domestic General Industry

Wind landed cost with CSS Wind landed cost without CSS

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Inter-state OA (Karnataka to Delhi)

5.17

9.35

7.45

5.15

8.18

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2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

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FY 2011-12 FY 2012-13 FY 2013-14

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Domestic Non-Domestic

Industry Wind landed cost without CSS

Wind landed cost with CSS

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