1
IPC
C S
pe
cia
l R
ep
ort
:
“Ma
na
gin
g t
he
Ris
ks
of
Ex
tre
me
Ev
en
ts a
nd
Dis
ast
ers
to A
dv
an
ce C
lim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Ad
ap
tati
on
(SR
EX
)”
Jonas Vevatne
Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning, Norway
Possible linkages between climate change
and frequency of extreme events
•the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 -2007)
stipulated possible linkages to the predicted increase
in intensity and frequency of extreme events,
•The Report stated that “…
the type, frequency and
intensity of extreme events are expected to change
as Earth’s clim
ate changes, and these changes could
occur even with relatively small mean clim
ate
changes. Changes in some types of extreme events
have already been observed, for example, increases
in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and
heavy precipitation events”(Summary for Policy
Makers, WG I, FAQ 10.1, p. 122).
Th
e r
ati
on
ale
fo
r p
rop
osi
ng
a S
pe
cia
l R
ep
ort
•AR
4.
Incr
ea
sin
g t
he
ne
ed
fo
r a
da
pta
tio
n.
•A
t th
e s
am
e t
ime
, ch
an
ge
s to
eco
syst
em
s a
nd
na
tura
l
reso
urc
es,
in
cre
asi
ng
urb
an
iza
tio
n a
nd
vu
lne
rab
ilit
y f
urt
he
r
incr
ea
se t
he
co
nse
qu
en
ces
of
ext
rem
e w
ea
the
r e
ve
nts
.
•T
he
AR
4 r
eco
gn
ize
d t
ha
t re
du
cin
g v
uln
era
bil
ity t
o c
urr
en
t
clim
ati
c va
ria
bil
ity
ca
n e
ffe
ctiv
ely
re
du
ce v
uln
era
bil
ity
to
incr
ea
sed
ha
zard
ris
k a
sso
cia
ted
wit
h c
lim
ate
ch
an
ge
.
•H
ow
ev
er,
th
e A
R4
re
vie
we
d p
oli
cie
s a
nd
me
asu
res
tha
t
we
re s
pe
cifi
call
y i
de
nti
fie
d a
s a
da
pta
tio
n a
nd
no
t th
e f
ull
ran
ge
of
act
ivit
ies
un
de
rta
ke
n t
o r
ed
uce
th
e r
isk
s o
f
ex
tre
me
ev
en
ts a
nd
dis
ast
ers
.
Conceptual model of
the topics to be
assessed in the
SREX and of the links
among them. The
focus will be on the
part of the domain
where all three
spheres overlap.
Links between CC and DR to be assessed
Ba
ckg
rou
nd
: K
ey
Da
tes
No
ve
mb
er
20
08
: 2
9th
Se
ssio
n o
f th
e I
PC
CIP
CC
co
nsi
de
rs N
orw
ay’s
su
bm
issi
on
of
a p
rop
osa
l fo
r a
sp
eci
al
rep
ort
on
m
an
ag
ing
ris
ks
of
ext
rem
e e
ve
nts
to
ad
va
nce
cli
ma
te c
ha
ng
e a
da
pta
tio
n
Ma
rch
20
09
: S
cop
ing
Me
eti
ng
Exp
ert
s d
eve
lop
a s
tru
ctu
re a
nd
an
no
tate
d o
utl
ine
fo
r th
e p
rop
ose
d S
pe
cia
l R
ep
ort
usi
ng
th
e N
orw
eg
ian
pro
po
sal
as
a s
tart
ing
po
int
Ap
ril
20
09
: 3
0th
Se
ssio
n o
f th
e I
PC
CIP
CC
ag
ree
s to
pre
pa
re a
Sp
eci
al
Re
po
rt o
n t
he
pro
po
sed
to
pic
Ma
y 2
00
9:
Ca
ll f
or
Lea
d A
uth
or
no
min
ati
on
sIP
CC
co
nve
ne
s a
ste
eri
ng
gro
up
to
co
nsi
de
r n
om
ina
tio
ns;
se
lect
ed
Lea
d
Au
tho
rs w
ere
no
tifi
ed
on
10
Se
pte
mb
er
20
09
Eu
rop
ea
n /
Eu
rop
e-B
ase
d L
ea
d A
uth
ors
Ma
art
en
va
n A
als
t —
Re
d C
ross
/Re
d C
resc
en
t C
lim
ate
Ce
ntr
e
Joe
rn B
irk
ma
nn
—U
nit
ed
Na
tio
ns
Un
ive
rsit
y In
stit
ute
fo
r E
nvi
ron
me
nt
an
d H
um
an
Se
curi
ty
Ma
ure
en
Fo
rdh
am
—N
ort
hu
mb
ria
Un
ive
rsit
y
Lisa
Sch
ipp
er
—Sto
ckh
olm
En
viro
nm
en
t In
stit
ute
So
nia
Se
ne
vir
atn
e—
ET
H Z
uri
ch
Cla
re G
oo
de
ss —
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f E
ast
An
gli
a
Ma
rku
s R
eic
hst
ein
—M
ax
Pla
nck
In
stu
tute
Asg
eir
So
rte
be
rg —
Ge
op
hys
ica
l In
stit
ute
, U
niv
ers
ity
of
Be
rge
n
Zb
ign
iew
Ku
nd
zew
icz
—P
oli
sh A
cad
em
y o
f Sci
en
ce
Nig
el A
rne
ll —
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f R
ea
din
g
Ge
rard
o B
en
ito
—Sp
an
ish
Re
sea
rch
Co
un
cil
Pa
sca
l P
ed
uzz
i —
UN
EP
-GR
ID/E
uro
pe
Bo
ris
Sh
ers
tyu
ko
v —
All
Ru
ssia
n R
ese
arc
h I
nst
itu
te o
f H
ydro
me
teo
rolo
gic
al In
form
ati
on
To
m M
itch
ell
—O
vers
ea
s D
eve
lop
me
nt
Inst
itu
te
Re
inh
ard
Me
chle
r—
IIA
SA
An
dre
w D
lug
ole
cki —
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f E
ast
An
gli
a
Dia
rmid
Ca
mp
be
ll-L
en
dru
m —
WH
O
Ian
Da
vis
—C
ran
fie
ld U
niv
ers
ity
Ric
ha
rd K
lein
—Sto
ckh
olm
En
viro
nm
en
t In
stit
ute
Fe
ren
c T
oth
—IA
EA
Ka
ren
O’B
rie
n —
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f O
slo
Ste
ph
an
e H
all
eg
att
e —
CIR
ED
an
d M
ete
o-F
ran
ce
An
dre
w M
ask
rey
—U
NIS
DR
Ma
rk P
ell
ing
—K
ing
’s C
oll
eg
e L
on
do
n
Vir
gin
ia M
urr
ay
—H
ea
lth
Pro
tect
ion
Ag
en
cy (
UK
)
Sil
via
Llo
sa —
UN
ISD
R
Se
rge
y B
ors
hch
—H
ydro
me
teo
rolo
gic
al C
en
tre
of
Ru
ssia
Fa
rro
kh
Na
dim
—In
tern
ati
on
al C
en
tre
fo
r G
eo
ha
zard
s (N
orw
ay)
Ap
pro
ve
d C
ha
pte
r O
utl
ine
1.
Cli
ma
te c
ha
ng
e:
ne
w d
ime
nsi
on
s in
dis
ast
er
risk
, e
xpo
sure
, vu
lne
rab
ilit
y,
an
d r
esi
lie
nce
2.
De
term
ina
nts
of
risk
s: e
xpo
sure
an
d v
uln
era
bil
ity
3.
Ch
an
ge
s in
im
pa
cts
of
clim
ate
ext
rem
es:
hu
ma
n s
yst
em
s a
nd
eco
syst
em
s
4.
Ma
na
gin
g t
he
ris
ks
fro
m c
lim
ate
ext
rem
es
at
the
lo
cal
leve
l
5.
Na
tio
na
l sy
ste
ms
for
ma
na
gin
g t
he
ris
k f
rom
cli
ma
te
ext
rem
es
6.
Ma
na
gin
g t
he
ris
ks:
in
tern
ati
on
al
leve
l a
nd
in
teg
rati
on
a
cro
ss s
cale
s
7.
To
wa
rds
a r
esi
lie
nt
an
d s
ust
ain
ab
le f
utu
re
8.
Ca
se s
tud
ies
Sp
eci
al
Re
po
rt P
rod
uct
ion
Sch
ed
ule
No
ve
mb
er
20
09
: F
irst
Le
ad
Au
tho
rs M
ee
tin
g (
Pa
na
ma
Cit
y,
Pa
na
ma
)
Fe
bru
ary
20
10
: Z
ero
-Ord
er
Dra
ft c
om
ple
ted
, ci
rcu
late
d f
or
info
rma
l p
ee
r re
vie
w
Ma
rch
20
10
: S
eco
nd
Le
ad
Au
tho
rs M
ee
tin
g (
Ha
no
i, V
iet
Na
m)
July
20
10
: F
irst
-Ord
er
Dra
ft c
om
ple
ted
, ci
rcu
late
d f
or
firs
t e
xpe
rt
an
d g
ove
rnm
en
t re
vie
w
Oct
ob
er
20
10
: T
hir
d L
ea
d A
uth
or’
s M
ee
tin
g (
Ge
ne
va
, S
wit
zerl
an
d)
Fe
bru
ary
20
11
: “S
eco
nd
-Ord
er
Dra
ft”
to b
e c
om
ple
ted
, ci
rcu
late
d
for
seco
nd
exp
ert
an
d g
ove
rnm
en
t re
vie
w
Ma
y 2
01
1:
Fo
urt
h L
ea
d A
uth
ors
Me
eti
ng
(G
old
Co
ast
, A
ust
rali
a)
Au
gu
st 2
01
1:
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
Fin
al
Dra
ft t
o G
ove
rnm
en
ts
No
ve
mb
er
20
11
: S
ess
ion
to
ap
pro
ve
th
e S
um
ma
ry f
or
Po
licy
ma
ke
rs
an
d t
o a
cce
pt
un
de
rly
ing
do
cum
en
t
Ob
ject
ive
s
Th
e S
pe
cia
l R
ep
ort
wil
l h
elp
Go
ve
rnm
en
ts l
ea
rn t
o a
da
pt
to
clim
ate
ch
an
ge
by
dra
win
g u
po
n t
he
lo
ng
exp
eri
en
ces
in
ma
na
gin
g a
nd
re
du
cin
g t
he
ris
k o
f e
xtre
me
cli
ma
te e
ve
nts
su
ch a
s fl
oo
ds,
dro
ug
hts
, st
orm
s a
nd
ext
rem
e t
em
pe
ratu
res.
Th
e S
pe
cia
l R
ep
ort
wil
l p
rovid
e t
he
fir
st s
yst
em
ati
c a
sse
ssm
en
t o
f G
ove
rnm
en
ts’
exp
eri
en
ce i
n r
isk r
ed
uct
ion
pra
ctic
es
for
clim
ate
ch
an
ge
ad
ap
tati
on
by
re
vie
win
g t
he
gu
ide
s,
fra
me
wo
rks
an
d t
oo
ls u
sed
by
va
rio
us
inst
itu
tio
ns,
o
rga
niz
ati
on
s a
nd
co
mm
un
itie
s to
:–
bu
ild
th
e i
nst
itu
tio
na
l b
asi
s fo
r re
du
cin
g v
uln
era
bil
ity
an
d r
isk
;
–d
eve
lop
ea
rly
wa
rnin
g s
yst
em
s;
–st
ren
gth
en
co
mm
un
ity
ca
pa
city
an
d s
oci
al
resi
lie
nce
, p
art
icu
larl
y
am
on
g t
he
mo
st v
uln
era
ble
;
–im
pro
ve
co
nst
ruct
ion
pra
ctic
es;
an
d
–e
sta
bli
sh p
rep
are
dn
ess
to
re
spo
nd
to
in
evit
ab
le c
lim
ate
im
pa
cts.
Ma
in m
ess
ag
e 1
/3•
Ma
na
gin
g c
lim
ate
-re
late
d d
isa
ste
r ri
sks
is e
ve
ryo
ne
’s
bu
sin
ess
—fr
om
na
tio
na
l a
nd
su
b-n
ati
on
al g
ov
ern
me
nts
, p
riv
ate
se
cto
r, r
ese
arc
h,
civ
il s
oci
ety
an
d c
om
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d
org
an
iza
tio
ns
an
d c
om
mu
nit
ies
wo
rkin
g in
pa
rtn
ers
hip
to
u
ltim
ate
ly h
elp
in
div
idu
al h
ou
seh
old
s to
re
du
ce t
he
ir r
isk
s a
nd
vu
lne
rab
ilit
ies.
In
an
eff
ect
ive
, e
ffic
ien
t n
ati
on
al sy
ste
m
for
ma
na
gin
g c
lim
ate
-re
late
d d
isa
ste
r ri
sks
the
se a
cto
rs
wo
uld
id
ea
lly
pla
y d
iffe
ren
tia
l b
ut
com
ple
me
nta
ry r
ole
s a
cco
rdin
g t
o t
he
ir a
cce
pte
d f
un
ctio
ns
an
d e
ffe
ctiv
en
ess
a
cro
ss g
eo
gra
ph
ica
l sc
ale
s, t
ime
an
d l
ev
els
of
soci
ety
, su
pp
ort
ed
by
re
leva
nt
scie
nti
fic
an
d t
rad
itio
na
l k
no
wle
dg
e.
•T
ha
t sa
id,
na
tio
na
l g
ove
rnm
en
ts h
ave
th
e m
ora
l a
nd
le
ga
l re
spo
nsi
bilit
y t
o e
nsu
re e
con
om
ic a
nd
so
cia
l w
ell
be
ing
, in
clu
din
g s
afe
ty a
nd
se
curi
ty,
of
the
ir c
itiz
en
s fr
om
na
tio
na
l d
isa
ste
rs.
It i
s th
e g
ove
rnm
en
t’s
resp
on
sib
ilit
y t
o p
rote
ct t
he
p
oo
rest
an
d m
ost
vu
lne
rab
le c
itiz
en
s fr
om
dis
ast
ers
, a
nd
to
im
ple
me
nt
dis
ast
er
risk
ma
na
ge
me
nt
tha
t re
ach
all
, e
spe
cia
lly t
he
mo
st v
uln
era
ble
.
Ma
in m
ess
ag
e 2
/3
•T
he
re i
s a
str
on
g p
rim
a f
aci
e c
ase
to
be
ma
de
fo
r b
rin
gin
g d
isa
ste
r ri
sk r
ed
uct
ion
an
d c
lim
ate
ch
an
ge
a
da
pta
tio
n c
lose
r to
ge
the
r in
a m
ore
in
teg
rate
d a
nd
sy
ne
rgis
tic
ap
pro
ach
. T
he
y h
ave
mu
ch t
o l
ea
rn f
rom
e
ach
oth
er.
It
is a
lso
th
e c
ase
th
at
succ
ess
ful
dis
ast
er
risk
re
du
ctio
n a
nd
cli
ma
te c
ha
ng
e a
da
pta
tio
n c
an
no
t b
e
ach
ieve
d i
n i
sola
tio
n f
rom
oth
er
inst
itu
tio
ns
an
d
ma
na
ge
me
nt
cap
aci
tie
s a
nd
th
at
mu
ch d
ep
en
ds
on
d
eve
lop
me
nt
cho
ice
s a
nd
pa
thw
ay
s.
•A
co
mm
on
ke
y c
ha
lle
ng
e t
o b
oth
dis
ast
er
risk
re
du
ctio
n
an
d c
lim
ate
ch
an
ge
ad
ap
tati
on
is
to s
tre
ng
the
n
inst
itu
tio
ns
an
d g
ove
rna
nce
arr
an
ge
me
nts
(a
nd
cre
ate
sy
ne
rgie
s a
cro
ss s
cale
s) a
nd
to
in
cre
ase
acc
ess
to
in
form
ati
on
, te
chn
olo
gy
, re
sou
rce
s a
nd
ca
pa
city
in
co
un
trie
s a
nd
lo
cali
tie
s w
ith
th
e h
igh
est
cli
ma
te r
ela
ted
ri
sks
an
d w
ea
k c
ap
aci
tie
s to
ma
na
ge
th
ose
ris
ks.
Ma
in m
ess
ag
e 3
/3
•A
ke
y c
ha
lle
ng
e i
s to
ad
dre
ss a
nd
in
corp
ora
te u
nce
rta
inty
in
to p
lan
nin
g a
nd
im
ple
me
nti
ng
re
spo
nse
. A
da
pti
ve
ris
k
ma
na
ge
me
nt
stra
teg
ies
are
he
lpfu
l in
re
spo
nd
ing
in
th
e
pre
sen
ce o
f u
nce
rta
inty
an
d c
om
ple
xity
.
•T
he
re i
s n
o s
ing
le a
pp
roa
ch,
fra
me
wo
rk o
r p
ath
wa
y t
o a
su
sta
ina
ble
an
d r
esi
lie
nt
futu
re;
a d
ive
rsit
y o
f re
spo
nse
s to
e
xtre
me
s ta
ke
n i
n t
he
pre
sen
t ca
n c
on
trib
ute
to
fu
ture
re
sili
en
ce i
n s
itu
ati
on
s o
f u
nce
rta
inty
.
•D
isa
ste
rs c
an
be
co
nsi
de
red
bo
th a
pro
ble
m o
f d
eve
lop
me
nt,
an
d a
n o
pp
ort
un
ity
fo
r d
eve
lop
me
nt.
D
isa
ste
r ri
sk r
ed
uct
ion
an
d c
lim
ate
ch
an
ge
ad
ap
tati
on
st
rate
gie
s m
ust
ad
dre
ss b
oth
un
de
rly
ing
pro
ble
ms
of
de
ve
lop
me
nt,
an
d e
me
rgin
g i
mp
lica
tio
ns
for
de
ve
lop
me
nt.
Norwegian Climate Adaptation
Programme
•Established 2007
•Interm
inisterial committee
–Headed by Ministry of the Environment
–Secretariat: Directorate for Civil
Protection and Emergency Planning
(links DRR and CCA)
•Provide knowledge, exchange of
experiences, competence building
•No changes in responsbilities –
municipality/county levels
•Increased temperatures (2-4.5°C
)
•More precipitation and more extreme rainfalls
–Floods and slides
•Sea level rise
•Melting of ice and snow cover
•Ecosystems
–New species, displacement of cold species
Climate changes in a Norwegian
perspective
Et trygt og robust samfunn -der alle tar ansvar
17
Et trygt og robust samfunn -der alle tar ansvar
18
A snap shot from the hurricane season 2005:
•16th of Aug –14th of Sept 2005
•White: clouds
•Pink: precipitation
Bergen 14th of September 2005
The storm Loke, 11th of November 2005
Activities
•Website launched March 2009
•’Future Cities’project –13 of the largest
municipalities (50 %
of total population)
•3-day course Adaptation to climate change in
societal planningfor development/
emergency planners and decision-m
akers at
local level
•Clim
ate change maps
•Handbook (guidelines)
•Official Norwegian Report (2009-2010)
•Linking DRR and CCA
•A separate 3-day course at the National Emergency
Planning College
•Aims
–To increase the knowledge and understanding of vulnerability
to clim
ate change and viable strategies for adaptation.
•Target groups
1.Local leaders (political and administrative)
2.Local and regional planners
3.Other governmental officers
4.Private actors and business
Adaptation to climate change in
societal planning
•Themes / issues
–IPCC, AR4, natural vs. human induced clim
ate change
–Scenarios for regional clim
ate change.
–Impacts on ecology, health, society and economy.
–Vulnerability to clim
ate change.
–Impacts for area planning.
–Clim
ate vulnerability analysis.
–Clim
ate change, flooding and landslides.
–Adaptation, flood mapping and area planning.
–Impacts on buildings and infrastructure.
Course: Adaptation to climate
change in societal planning
Cities of the future
•Collaboration between the Government
and 13 of the largest cities in Norway
•Runs from 2008-2014
•4 areas of focus
–Land use and transport
–Consumption and waste
–Energy and buildings
–Climate change adaptation
Et trygt og robust samfunn -der alle tar ansvar
25
Website –klimatilpasning.no
Inform
ation sharing:
Inform
ation sharing:
��Experiences
Experiences
��Best practices
Best practices
��Research
Research
��Specific issues
Specific issues
��Guidelines
Guidelines
��Clim
ate maps
Clim
ate maps
Target groups:
Target groups:
��Local/regional planners
Local/regional planners
��Decision
Decision-- m
akers
makers
Guidelines –Climate start
Principles for climate change
adaptation
•Clim
ate change affects all
levels and all sectors –must
be handled by all levels and
sectors
•Not a sector on its own –
must be integrated into
existing organization
•Adaptation is about planning
–those responsible for
planning are responsible for
adaptation to a changing
clim
ate
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Disaster
Risk
Reduction
Integration into
local development
planning
What is urgent –what can wait?
Assess own
clim
ate
vulnerability
Begin with the
most urgent
Integration
into plans
Avoid new
vulnerability
Preparedness
for events
Adapt to
current clim
ate
Rajendra Pachauri, Bergen, 12.05.09
Local institutional capacity and
knowledge
”When it comes to
institutional capacity,
knowledge at the local level
of governance is very
important”
Thank you
