1 “Unemployed Workers and the Great Recession” Highlights from the Heldrich Center’s Work Trends Reports, 2009-2010 Carl E. Van Horn and Cliff Zukin* John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development Rutgers University Introduction In order to better understand the American public’s attitudes about work, employers, and the government, and to suggest ways to improve workplace practices and policy, the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development began conducting a series of nationwide surveys. Since 1998, more than 20 Work Trends surveys have polled employed and unemployed Americans on critical workforce issues. (The complete set of research reports is available at http://www.heldrich.rutgers.edu.) While prior Work Trends surveys had focused on a cross‐section of workers, the prolonged “Great Recession” prompted a closer examination of the experiences and opinions of unemployed workers. Taken together, national Work Trends surveys conducted between the summer of 2009 and the end of 2010 provide a detailed profile of the American workforce in crisis. Initially a national random sample of 1,202 unemployed workers was interviewed in August 2009 (Appendix A), using the web‐enabled KnowledgePanel® conducted by Knowledge Networks of Menlo Park, California. In March 2010, 908 of those respondents were re‐ interviewed (Appendix B); 764 respondents were re‐interviewed again in November 2010 (Appendix C). In September 2010, unemployed workers and employed workers were surveyed in order to compare their experiences and views of the economy (Appendix D). This paper highlights the key findings from the Heldrich Center’s effort to capture the experiences of American workers during the worst labor market in a generation.
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“Unemployed Workers and the Great Recession”
Highlights from the Heldrich Center’s Work Trends Reports, 2009-2010
Carl E. Van Horn and Cliff Zukin*
John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development
Rutgers University Introduction InordertobetterunderstandtheAmericanpublic’sattitudesaboutwork,employers,andthegovernment,andtosuggestwaystoimproveworkplacepracticesandpolicy,theJohnJ.HeldrichCenterforWorkforceDevelopmentbeganconductingaseriesofnationwidesurveys.Since1998,morethan20WorkTrendssurveyshavepolledemployedandunemployedAmericansoncriticalworkforceissues.(Thecompletesetofresearchreportsisavailableathttp://www.heldrich.rutgers.edu.)WhilepriorWorkTrendssurveyshadfocusedonacross‐sectionofworkers,theprolonged“GreatRecession”promptedacloserexaminationoftheexperiencesandopinionsofunemployedworkers.Takentogether,nationalWorkTrendssurveysconductedbetweenthesummerof2009andtheendof2010provideadetailedprofileoftheAmericanworkforceincrisis.Initiallyanationalrandomsampleof1,202unemployedworkerswasinterviewedinAugust2009(AppendixA),usingtheweb‐enabledKnowledgePanel®conductedbyKnowledgeNetworksofMenloPark,California.InMarch2010,908ofthoserespondentswerere‐interviewed(AppendixB);764respondentswerere‐interviewedagaininNovember2010(AppendixC).InSeptember2010,unemployedworkersandemployedworkersweresurveyedinordertocomparetheirexperiencesandviewsoftheeconomy(AppendixD).ThispaperhighlightsthekeyfindingsfromtheHeldrichCenter’sefforttocapturetheexperiencesofAmericanworkersduringtheworstlabormarketinageneration.
An Economic Disaster TheGreatRecessionthatofficiallycoveredtheperiodfromDecember2007toJune2009claimedover8millionjobsandleft15millionpeopleunemployed.But,theeffectsonthenationwerefarmorewidespread.Nearlythreeinfour(73%)AmericansinarandomsampleofemployedandunemployedAmericanssurveyedbytheHeldrichCenterinSeptember2010reportedthattheyhadfirsthandexperiencewiththerecession.Eithertheylostajoborafamilymemberorclosefriendlostajobduringtherecession.Specifically,14%saidtheywerelaidofffromafull‐orpart‐timejob.Another12%saidanimmediatefamilymemberwaslaidoff.Thirtypercentsaidamemberoftheirextendedfamilylostajob.Another17%knewaclosefriendwhowaslaidoffduringtherecession.Americansclearlydonotblamethevictimsofthissevererecession.Perhapsbecausethecalamitywassowidespread,justoneinfour(26%)Americanworkerssaidthatthehighjoblessratewasduetothefactthatsomepeople“didnotwanttowork.”However,thereisplentyofblameattachedtootherparties.Nearlythreeinfourrespondents(74%)attributedthehighlevelsofjoblessnesstocompetitionandcheaplaborfromothercountries.Anearmajorityofthosesurveyed(47%)saidthatillegalimmigrantshadtakenjobsawayfromAmericans.Over4in10respondents(45%)attributedtheeconomicdownturntoWallStreetbankers. Unemployed Workers Struggle and Lose Faith in their Futures TheNovember2010WorkTrendssurveyofAmericanworkerswholosttheirjobsduringtherecessiondocumentedtheerosioninthequalityoflifeformillions.Theirfinancialreserveswereexhausted,theirjobprospectsdim,theirfamilyrelationsstressed,andtheirbeliefingovernment’sabilitytohelpthemnegligible.Theyfelthopelessandpowerless,unabletoseetheirwayoutoftheGreatRecession. Onlyone‐quarter(26%)ofthosefirstinterviewedinAugust2009hadfoundfull‐timejobssome15monthslater.(SeeTable1).Amongthebalanceofrespondents,43%wereunemployedandlookingforwork,11%wereworkingparttimebutlookingforfull‐timework,8%wereworkingparttimeandnotlookingforfull‐timework,and13%wereunemployedbutnotlookingforwork.WhilethereweresomeemploymentgainsbetweenAugust2009andNovember2010,therewasverylittlechangebetweenMarchandNovember2010.Thepercentageofthoselookingforwork,notlooking,andcurrentlyemployedshowsthegreatstagnationofthelaborforce.1
Mostunemployedworkerssurveyedinlate2010feltthataneconomicrecoverywasstillalongwayoff.Just1in10(9%)saidsomeimprovementwouldcomebytheendof2011,and4in10thoughttheywouldhavetowaitatleastthreeyearsbeforeseeingaturnaround.Fifteenpercentareevenmorepessimistic,believingthattheeconomywillneverrecover.Withlittleoptimismabouttheeconomicfuture,themanyunemployedAmericansfeelhelplessandpowerlessandquestionafundamentalAmericancredo;namelythatanyonewhoworkshardcansucceed.Morethanhalfofthepanelists(57%)believedthatnomatterhowdeterminedtheyare,hardworkdoesnotguaranteesuccess.AnationalsampleconductedataboutthesametimebytheKaiserFamilyFoundation,HarvardUniversity,andTheWashingtonPostshowedmostAmericansbelievedtheopposite—thatAmericanscangetaheadifthey’rewillingtoworkhard.2 The Long-Term Unemployed Table2showstheemploymentstatusofallrespondentssurveyedinNovember2010andencompassesthosewhoareunemployedandlookingforwork,unemployedbutnotlookingforwork,andthosecurrentlyemployed.Clearly,unemploymenthitssomegroupsharderthanothers.Thisisparticularlynoticeablewithage,where62%ofthoseover55werestilllookingforwork,comparedto57%betweentheagesof35and54,and47%ofthoseunderage35.Blacksreportedslightlyhigherunemploymentratesthanwhitesandthoseatthelower‐andmiddle‐incomelevelsreportedmoredifficultythandidupper‐
incomerespondents.Thosewithsomecollegeeducationfareworsethaneithercollegeorhighschoolgraduates.Theamountoftimepanelmembershavebeenwithoutajobdemonstratestheintransigenceofunemployment.(SeeFigure1).Morethan6in10oftheunemployed(64%)havebeenlookingforatleastayear,withfullyone‐third(35%)lookingforovertwoyears.Thepercentageoutofworkforayearormoreincreasedfrom25%inAugust2009to48%inMarch2010andto64%byNovember2010.Thepercentageoutofworktwoyearsormorehasincreasedfrom10%inAugust2009toitscurrentfigureof35%inNovember2010. TABLE 2. WHO IS LOOKING FOR FULL-TIME WORK? Employed Not in Labor
The Reemployed Asnotedabove,theNovember2010WorkTrendssurveyfoundthatonlyone‐thirdofthoseoriginallylookingforworkinAugust2009hadfoundanotherjobbyNovember2010,eitherasfull‐timeworkers(26%)oraspart‐timeworkerswhodidnotwantafull‐timejob(8%).ThisfindingisbetterthantheMarch2010surveywhenonly13%reportedthattheyfoundfull‐timeworkandanother8%wereworkingparttime.Formostofthereemployed,thejobsearchlastedalongtime.Just43%ofthereemployedfoundworkinafewmonths;half(about49%)reportedthattheyactivelysoughtemploymentformorethanhalfayearbeforetheyfoundajob.Almostone‐third(30%)saidtheyhadbeenlookingforafullyearormore.(SeeFigure2.)
spendingonwhatmostconsidernecessities—about5in10gaveupacentralelementinfood(51%),healthcare(45%),transportation(45%),andhousing(42%).Andchangesweremaderegardlessofwhetherpanelistswereemployedorunemployed.(SeeFigure4.)Perhapsmostdisturbingishowmanyunemployedworkerswereforcedtoreducespendingonatleastoneessential—80%spentlessoneitherfood,housing,orhealthcare.Infact,overhalfofallunemployedworkers—and60%ofthelong‐termunemployed—donothavehealthcarebenefits.Morethanhalf(54%)alsosaidtherecessioncontributedtomorestressinfamilyrelationshipsforboththereemployedandthoselookingforwork.Whenaskedwhattheyhavedonetocopewiththefinancialtroublescausedbytheirunemployment,41%reportedthattheyborrowedmoneyfromfamilyorfriends,soldpossessions(36%),orincreasedcreditcarddebt(29%). TABLE 3. SEVERE FINANCIAL IMPACTS
Economy has
Major Impact on
Family
Poor Financial
Shape
Family’s Financial
Situation is Worse
Compared to Two
Years Ago
Have a “Lot Less” in
Personal Income
and Personal
Savings
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9
Diminished Expectations for the Future of the Economy and the Workforce Nearlytwointhreeunemployedworkersbelievedthattheeffectsoftherecessionwillbepermanent,ratherthantemporary,andthattheeconomyisundergoingfundamentalandlastingchanges(SeeFigure5.)ManybelievedthatthingswillneverreturntowheretheywerebeforetheGreatRecession.Morethanhalfbelievedthatthefollowingwillbepermanentchanges:
