“We haven’t got a plan, so nothing can go wrong”
(Spike Milligan)
Politics and planning in transportWilliam McDougall
Smart Urban Futures Conference 2019
Politics has trumped planning
• Investment decisions now based on political promises
• Decisions made first, business cases and EESs follow (‘sell jobs’)
• No Victorian transport plan (contravenes TIA)
• IV and IA have little influence – politicians ignore their advice, or use it selectively
Main outcomes: red herrings, delays to critical actions, secrecy, misuse of public funds
All too many examples – and it’s not new
Perth: Fremantle line (1980s), Metronet
Sydney: WestConnex, Sydney Metro, North East line
Melbourne:
• East West Link
• Melbourne Metro/Melbourne Rail Link
• West Gate Tunnel
• North East Link
• Airport Rail (+ regional connections)
• Suburban Rail Loop
Good economics is not a criterionPublic transport
• LXRP – 0.8• LXRP+CPLU+MM – 0.9• MM – 1.1• Means that CPLU was 0.7. MM propping up worse projects? MM not justified?
West Gate Tunnel• WGT + Monash Fwy Upgrade – 1.3 (I think 0.8)• WGT only – 1.1 (I think 0.7)• Monash upgrade – 4.2 (I think 2.6)
East West Link: 0.8 (with optimism bias)
But business cases are quickly forgotten,once they’ve served their purpose…
Forecast failures – Victoria in Future
• VIF always predicts low
• Only one series
• Since 2004, has stopped at 2031
• Used for all transport models and business case projections
• AND 7% discount rate
• Does not favour long term projects
Actual
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031A
nn
ual
po
pu
lati
on
gro
wth
, Vic
tori
a
VIF forecasts published in:2016
2015
2012
2008
2004
2000
Source: Updated from an original by Charter Keck Cramer, 2017
Infrastructure investment boom
Source: Macromonitor
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Val
ue
of
wo
rk d
on
e p
er y
ear
($
B)
Year ending June
Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Australia
Road Transit Freight Air na
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Val
ue
of
wo
rk d
on
e p
er y
ear
($B
)
Year ending June
Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Australia
Road Transit Freight Air na
Non-capital city projects - stippled
Sydney ClearwaysM2, M5 Upgrades
WestConnex
NorthConnexWestern Sydney Rds
W Harbour
Tunnel & Beaches Link
Sydney Gateway
Epping-Chatswood
SW Rail
Metro NW
Light Rail
Metro City & SW
N-S Rail (2nd airport)
Metro W
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Val
ue
of
wo
rk d
on
e p
er
year
($
B)
Year ending June
Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Sydney
Eastlink
W Ring Road
Peninsula Link
CityLink-Tulla WideningWest Gate Tunnel
Outer Suburbs Arterials
North East Link
Monash Fwy
Regional Rail Link
L Crossing Removals
Metro Rail Tunnel
Webb Dock
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Val
ue
of
wo
rk d
on
e p
er
year
($
B)
Year ending June
Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Melbourne
Travel in Melbourne today – my view
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Commutes Other TOTAL
Mill
ion
s
Daily trips in Melbourne 2016
PT Active Car
11%
5%
84%
Heavy rail – the real mass transit
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Workers Students Total
320,000 enter central Melbourne in morning peak, 2016
Train Tram Bus Car Active
10%
16%
4%
18%
52%
Alternative land use futures
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2426
28
30
2016 M@8m BAU M@8mCentralise
M@8mDecentralise
Mill
ion
s
Land use strategies won't change city-wide travel much
PT Active Car
Alternative land use futures
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2016 M@8m BAU M@8mCentralise
M@8mDecentralise
Mill
ion
s
But peak trips to Inner Melbourne could change a lot
PT Active Car
Transport futures
• MUCH more mass transit
• On-road PT networks also need dramatic expansion
• Cycling and walking must be made safer, for a lot more people
• Outer suburbs with 90% car use will not work
• Autonomous vehicles – occupancy down, road capacity up
• Ride and active transport sharing will come of age
• Driverless transit will be much more efficient
• Mass transit will be commercially viable
Strategic directions
Develop meaningful targets:
• Mobility kept at or above today’s levels as city grows
• Zero emissions from city transport by 2050
• Zero fatalities as well
• Mass & Active transport to take up majority of future growth
• Mode share of M&A – more than 50% city-wide daily by 2050? What will be enough to keep road use manageable? How will road space be allocated between modes?
New planning approach
• De-politicise once and for all• Link to decarbonisation and climate policies• Binding targets for mode shares and capacity• Revitalise Transport Integration Act and give it teeth• Connect transport planning to land use and growth• Re-think city land use and travel patterns• Incentivise and legislate for new technologies, business models• Require rolling 30-year strategies and 10-year investment plans• All logically prioritised using updated/improved methods• Every stage fully, independently audited and open to public scrutiny