+ All Categories
Home > Documents > AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Date post: 25-Sep-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 0 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
23
Daily Price Monitoring Report 02 nd May 2019 Pulses Today’s developments: Lower yield (around 20 %) for tur in Bihar and Jharkhand could not pressurize cash market. Apart from lower arrival demand from Kanpur, Katni and Indore continues to increase. Currently, there is not much stock of tur in mills located in Katni region. As prices of local tur in cash market is higher, there is no parity for dal mills in this region. So, lemon tur is being processed to meet emerging demand. It impacted lemon tur price positively and it moved up by Rs 400 to Rs5500.However, some correction is expected at this level. As domestic crop size is lower, prices of tur is bound to move up further amid lower crop size in Myanmar this year. Forward deal in Myanmar has been struck at $720/25 per MT basis Indian port. Supply from Nimuch line is decreasing now. Besides, there is not much stock in Mumbai and Chennai right now. All these development would push tur price up by Rs 400-500 from current level. Chana may continue to trade range bound this week as millers are unwilling to buy for stock purpose. In Delhi market chana is being traded at Rs 4350-4400. Weak demand amid eased supply side may restrict chana to move up further in the short term. There is some hope from Ramdan’s demand and improved pace of procurement. However, it may not push up price beyond MSP level in any case in the near term. There is plenty of old stock with Nafed. If Nafed holds 10 lakh MT as buffer stock, there would be still marketable surplus of 7 lakh MT. It would cap uptrend. Chana cash market would move up beyond MSP, but not before June. Agriwatch expects downward correction in moong market as buyers at higher level have started restricting bulk purchase. In Jaipur market moong is being traded at Rs 6300-6450. It may move further up by Rs 100-150 and then decrease. There is no parity for export while new crop is expected from UP, Odrisa and Bihar. Pressure from Nimar line is coming down. Besides, govt has stock of around 1.5lakh MT and attempt to sell at higher price may start again. Overall tone in the medium term remains firm.June onward it may move to Rs 7000. Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets: (28 Apr 2019) Tur may continue to trade firm as arrival in major markets have decreased considerably. In Gulberga market tur is being traded at Rs 5200-5300 per qtl. Stockists and millers are active and tur may move further up by Rs 100-200. Selling by private trade remains restricted. So, any major downward correction is unlikely. Tur may trade in the range of Rs 5200-5500 this week. Myanmar has quoted $760 per MT for incoming crop in forward deal. Old crop is being offered at $660 per MT. Overall tone in tur market remains firm (26 Apr 2019) Tur import quota for private trade has been fixed at 2 lakh MT. In addition to this govt. would import 1.75 lakh MT tur from African countries this year, starting from 1 st April- 2019.This means total import would be around 3.75 lakh MT this year. Despite import, lower crop size this year may push tur cash market up towards MSP level in the medium term. Crop in Burma is one and a half month away from now and forward deals have been struck at $ 700-710 per MT. It hints market to move up. (26 Apr 2019) Urad traded steady in Mumbai and Chennai market despite good buying due to lower arrival and restricted import volume. Demand from Papar Udhog has improved. As ample stock is available from old crop, any spike is unlikely. However, it may trade positive in coming days. Urad in Mumbai market is being traded at Rs 4500-4600 per qtl. It may move up by Rs 100 to
Transcript
Page 1: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May 2019

Pulses Today’s developments: ● Lower yield (around 20 %) for tur in Bihar and Jharkhand could not pressurize cash market. Apart

from lower arrival demand from Kanpur, Katni and Indore continues to increase. Currently, there is not much stock of tur in mills located in Katni region. As prices of local tur in cash market is higher, there is no parity for dal mills in this region. So, lemon tur is being processed to meet emerging demand. It impacted lemon tur price positively and it moved up by Rs 400 to Rs5500.However, some correction is expected at this level. As domestic crop size is lower, prices of tur is bound to move up further amid lower crop size in Myanmar this year. Forward deal in Myanmar has been struck at $720/25 per MT basis Indian port. Supply from Nimuch line is decreasing now. Besides, there is not much stock in Mumbai and Chennai right now. All these development would push tur price up by Rs 400-500 from current level.

● Chana may continue to trade range bound this week as millers are unwilling to buy for stock purpose. In Delhi market chana is being traded at Rs 4350-4400. Weak demand amid eased supply side may restrict chana to move up further in the short term. There is some hope from Ramdan’s demand and improved pace of procurement. However, it may not push up price beyond MSP level in any case in the near term. There is plenty of old stock with Nafed. If Nafed holds 10 lakh MT as buffer stock, there would be still marketable surplus of 7 lakh MT. It would cap uptrend. Chana cash market would move up beyond MSP, but not before June.

● Agriwatch expects downward correction in moong market as buyers at higher level have started restricting bulk purchase. In Jaipur market moong is being traded at Rs 6300-6450. It may move further up by Rs 100-150 and then decrease. There is no parity for export while new crop is expected from UP, Odrisa and Bihar. Pressure from Nimar line is coming down. Besides, govt has stock of around 1.5lakh MT and attempt to sell at higher price may start again. Overall tone in the medium term remains firm.June onward it may move to Rs 7000.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets: ● (28 Apr 2019) Tur may continue to trade firm as arrival in major markets have decreased

considerably. In Gulberga market tur is being traded at Rs 5200-5300 per qtl. Stockists and millers are active and tur may move further up by Rs 100-200. Selling by private trade remains restricted. So, any major downward correction is unlikely. Tur may trade in the range of Rs 5200-5500 this week. Myanmar has quoted $760 per MT for incoming crop in forward deal. Old crop is being offered at $660 per MT. Overall tone in tur market remains firm

● (26 Apr 2019) Tur import quota for private trade has been fixed at 2 lakh MT. In addition to this govt. would import 1.75 lakh MT tur from African countries this year, starting from 1st April-2019.This means total import would be around 3.75 lakh MT this year. Despite import, lower crop size this year may push tur cash market up towards MSP level in the medium term. Crop in Burma is one and a half month away from now and forward deals have been struck at $ 700-710 per MT. It hints market to move up.

● (26 Apr 2019) Urad traded steady in Mumbai and Chennai market despite good buying due to lower arrival and restricted import volume. Demand from Papar Udhog has improved. As ample stock is available from old crop, any spike is unlikely. However, it may trade positive in coming days. Urad in Mumbai market is being traded at Rs 4500-4600 per qtl. It may move up by Rs 100 to

Page 2: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May 2019

200 from current level in the weeks ahead. Urad FAQ is being traded at $550 and SQ at $675 per MT basis CiF Indian ports.

● (24 Apr 2019) Tur import quota for private trade has been fixed at 2 lakh MT. In addition to this govt. would import 1.75 lakh MT tur from African countries this year, starting from 1st April-2019.This means total import would be around 3.75 lakh MT this year. Despite import, lower crop size this year may push tur cash market up towards MSP level in the medium term. Crop in Burma is one and a half month away from now and forward deals have been struck at $ 700-710 per MT.It hints market to move up.

● (23 Apr 2019) Chana cash market traded almost steady at Rs4350-4400 in Delhi market. Weak demand at higher level and higher stock in central pool continue to cap uptrend despite ongoing procurement drive. Procurement pace is slow and is likely to improve in coming weeks. State agencies would procure around 22 lakh MT chana this year. However, around 2 lakh MT has been procured so far. Recent rains and storm in Rajasthan and Gujarat have affected harvesting activities and arrival might be affected for few days. Overall tone in cash market seems steady to slightly firm this week.

● (23 Apr 2019) Recent rains in parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat have slowed down harvesting activities and it has affected arrivals in major markets. Due to restricted arrivals some support is expected in pulses market in comings days. No major crop loss has been reported so far.

● (20 Apr 2019) IMD has forecast normal monsoon this year and with this forecast prospect for better kharif crop have improved. Even Australian weather department has changed its forecast regarding El-Nino impact now. As per the latest update duration for El-Nino impact would be for a shorter period. It shows that IMD forecast may come true. Good kharif crop prospects may cap any likely spike in food grains market.

● (18 Apr 2019) Firmness in cash pulses market is likely to depend on monsoon rainfall during the first phase of sowing starting from June. If India receives good rainfall (likely) as per IMD forecast, better kharif prospects seem on the card and it would cap upward momentum of price. In case of lower rainfall, production prospects may weaken and it would help market to move up. In normal condition cash market is likely to trade steady to slightly weak in the short term. Agriwatch expects market to improve in the second half. However, monsoon progress would remain crucial for pulses price. Right now rains in Rajasthan region have disturbed harvesting activities of chana and if it continues, chana may move up once again

● (16 Apr 2019) Chana with other cash pulses market could not sustain its previous level and decreased due to good monsoon forecast by IMD. Prospect of good kharif sowing has increased and pressure is being seen on cash pulses market. Overall tone remains weak in the short term.

● (10 Apr 2019) Nafed has procured over 38,000 MT Chana on MSP so far. Out of total procurement maximum buying (34,500 MT) was registered in Telangana. The procurement pace is likely to increase in Raj &MP from next week. As farmers are not getting MSP, arrival has not been up to the mark so far. Notably, the central govt. had decided to procure 25 % of pulses out of total production. However, in MP procurement target for chana and masur has been fixed at 22% and 15%.At this fixed target MP Govt would procure1,10,600 MT masur and 11,48750MT chana in MP. Total procurement target for chana has been fixed at 22, 24,823 MT against 27.24 lakh MT last year.Govt would procure total 2,81,166 MT masur this year.

● (03 Apr 2019) DGFT has re-set pulses import quota at 6.5 lakh MT for 1st April-2019 to 31st March-2020.As per the latest notification Moong, Urad and pea quota has been fixed at 1.5 lakh MT each for new financial year. Besides, for tur it has been fixed at 2 lakh MT for the whole year. This means import volume would remain restricted and it would support cash market price in coming weeks.

Page 3: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May 2019

Price & Arrival:

Urad

State/District Market

Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change

Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source

01 May 2019

30 Apr 2019

01 May 2019

30 Apr 201

9

Andhra Pradesh Guntur(Gota Branded) 7700 7700 Unch NA NA - Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh Vijaywada Closed 5800 - Closed

800 - Agriwatch

Tamil Nadu Villupuram NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Tamil Nadu Chennai Closed 4450 - Closed

NA - Agriwatch

Tur

State/District Market

Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change

Arrivals (Qtl)

Change

Source 01 May

2019 30 Apr

2019

01 May 2019

30 Apr 201

9

Andhra Pradesh Yemmiganur

NA NA - NA NA - eNAM

Andhra Pradesh Kurnool NA NA - NA NA - eNAM Maharashtra Akola NA 5500 - NA 174 - eNAM

Andhra Pradesh Vijayawada Closed 5100 - Closed

NA - Agriwatch

Moong

State/District Market

Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change

Arrivals (Qtl)

Change

Source 01 May

2019 30 Apr

2019

01 May 2019

30 Apr 201

9 Rajasthan Jodhpur 5860 5600 260 21 34 -13 eNAM

Karnataka Gulbarga NA 5125 - NA 40 - Agmarkne

t Madhya Pradesh Harda NA 5990 - 132 NA -

Agmarknet

Andhra Pradesh Vijayawada Closed 5800 - Close

d 300 - Agriwatch

Page 4: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May 2019

Chana

State/District Market

Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change

Arrivals (Qtl)

Change

Source 01 May

2019 30 Apr

2019

01 May 2019

30 Apr 201

9 Andhra Pradesh Kurnool NA 4489 - NA 3 - eNAM

Andhra Pradesh Yemmiganu

r NA NA - NA NA - eNAM

Madhya Pradesh Indore 4250 4250 Unch 1000

1200 -200 Agriwatch

Rajasthan Bikaner NA 4040 - NA 415 - eNAM

Chana at NCDEX

Contract Open High Low Close Change Volume O.Int

19-May 4368 4379 4303 4326 -17 40640 79690 19-Jun 4412 4427 4352 4368 -27 28550 73950 19-Jul 4467 4467 4404 4418 -28 4370 6570

As on 30th April - 2019 at 5pm Rs/Quintal

Page 5: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May 2019

Groundnut

Current Developments: (02.05.2019) As on 30th April 2019, Nafed sold total groundnut K-17 & K-18 at 5918 MT and

4593 MT respectively in India. It has disposed total 801082.41 MT of groundnut K-17 and holds remaining balance at 243620.25 MT so far. Additionally, Nafed has sold total 145591.07 MT of groundnut K-18 and holds remaining balance at 557185.73 MT so far.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets: (23.04.2019) As per sources, National Agriculture Bank for Rural Development & Department of

Agriculture, Human Natural Resources Development Society (HANDS), an NGO and the Mana Vittanam Kendras (formed by farmers) have planned and moving forward to produce ‘foundation seed’ for the groundnut farmers in the district under the ‘Community Managed Seed System (CMSS)’ scheme so that groundnut farmers can get good quality of seeds. There was a load of complaints by farmers that the quality of seed is poor as supplied earlier by government. Foundation seed will help farmers to produce their own groundnut seed for Rabi and Kharif season.

(23.04.2019) As per APEDA data, groundnut shipment reported lower by 14.14% to 386594 MT during April-February 2019 amounting total Rs. 2606 crore as compared to 450285 MT in last year during the same period of time. The shipment is also down by 1.89% as compared to 394054 MT in April to January 2019.

(07.03.2019) In the second advanced estimates, ministry expects lower Indian groundnut crop (Kharif and Rabi) at 69.70 lakh tonnes for 2018/19 season against 82.17 lakh tonnes in 2017/18. Kharif groundnut crop size during 2018-19 is estimated at 54.41 lakh tonnes which is lower by 17.74% than the production of 66.15 million tonnes in 2nd Advance Estimates of 2017-18. Less rainfall at initial stage of crop and lower acreage are the main reason to cut output of Groundnut.

(22.02.2019) We expects AP groundnut crop size at 4.21 lakh metric tonnes for 2018/19 season lower from previous year crop size i.e. 5.48 lakh metric tonnes as farmers covered the lower sowing area for this season.

(15.02.2019) As per recent ministry report, total Rabi groundnut area in India has been reported down at 4.81 Lakh hac. in this year as compared to 6.27 lakh hac. in previous year. In AP, it is recorded at 0.58 lakh hac. in this year lower than 0.85 lakh hac. in the previous year.

(6.02.2019) As per recent updates from DGCIS, Gujarat shipped total 1.79 lakh tonnes groundnut worth Rs. 1224 crore in April to November of the 2018/19 fiscal. The state may export lower size of groundnut around 2.50 lakh tonnes during this end of this fiscal due to less competitive prices in domestic & global market. In 2017/18, Gujarat's shipment was recorded at 3.22 lakh tonnes (value at Rs. 2115 crore). Lowest volume of Gujarat's exports may reduce total groundnut exports volume of India for the season 2018/19.

(18.01.2019)-In the second advanced estimates AP has downward revised the Kharif production estimate of GN to 3.29 lakh tons as against 4.05 lakh tons in 1stAdvanced estimates. Rabi groundnut production is estimated at 1.49 lakh tons.

Page 6: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May 2019

Price & Arrival: Groundnut

State/District Market Variety

Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 1-May-

19 30-

Apr-19 1-May-

19 29-

Apr-19

Andhra Pradesh

Adoni NA 5753 NA NA 25 NA NAM

Dharmavaram Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Gooti Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Guntakal Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Kadapa Local NA 5267 NA NA 25 NA NAM

Kadiri Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Kalyandurg NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Kurnool NA 5388 NA NA 9 NA NAM

Madakasira JL-24 NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Penukonda Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Piler Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Rayachoti Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Srikalahasti Other NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Tenakallu Local NA NA NA NA NA NA Agmarknet

Yemmiganur 5319 4580 739 20 5 15 NAM

Gujarat

Bhavnagar NA NA NA NA NA NA NAM

Deesa NA NA NA NA NA NA NAM

Jamnagar NA NA NA NA NA NA NAM

Rajkot 3900 4150 -250 14 25 -11 NAM

Telangana

Nagarkurnool NA 4840 NA NA 21 NA NAM

Suryapeta NA NA NA NA NA NA NAM

Tandur NA NA NA NA NA NA NAM

Wanaparthy Town NA NA NA NA NA NA NAM

Page 7: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May 2019

Onion Today’s Development:

In Maharashtra, most of the markets reported closed amid Maharashtra Day on 1st May. Recent Developments that are still influencing the Market:

(29 April 2019) - Prices reported steady to firm in most of the markets amid higher arrivals which indicates firmness in market ahead.

(25 April 2019) - Prices are increasing in most of the markets and expected to increase further in coming days.

(23 April 2019) - Across the country fresh crop is coming in market from Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

(23 April 2019) - Prices in coming months are expected to remain on higher side because of lower Rabi acreage in major producing regions.

(22 April 2019) - In Maharashtra, prices have increased in last 3-4 days because of rains in producing regions which may damage the onion crop to some extent.

(18 April 2019) - In Lasalgaon, modal prices are trading near Rs. 830- Rs.870/ quintal compared to last year‘s Rs. 650/ quintal during same time period. Prices are likely to remain on higher side in coming months.

(15 April 2019) - In Gujarat, arrivals during the period (1st April -13th April 2019) reported 14.15% higher than last year. Highest arrivals reported in Mahuva which contribute approximately 70% of total arrivals.

(12 April 2019) - State Government of Maharashtra has extended the subsidy of Rs 200/quintal to farmers who have suffered financial distress to low prices till 15th April 2019 with individual quantity being capped at 200/ quintal.

(11 April 2019) - On Wednesday, onion prices reported steady to firm in most of the markets amid higher arrivals.

(10 April 2019) - In Lasalgaon, prices are trading on a higher side of Rs. 1050/ quintal and arrivals are continuous because of peak harvesting season.

(08 April 2019) - According to trade sources exports may on higher side because of lower prevailing prices and higher incentives of 10% under MEIS scheme till 30th June 2019.

Price and Arrivals in Major Markets

Onion

State Market Modal Wholesale Prices (Rs/Qtl) Arrivals in Tons

Source 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 Change 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 Change

Gujarat Ahmedabad 675 675 Unch 644 707 -63 Agmarknet

Rajkot 625 1250 -625 21 2 19 Agmarknet

Karnataka Bangalore NR 800 - NR 2198 - Agmarknet Belgaum NR NR - NR NR - Agmarknet

Madhya Pradesh Indore NR 550 - NR 1555 - Agmarknet

Maharashtra Lasalgaon NR 851 - NR 2073 - Agmarknet

Pune NR 700 - NR 1493 - Agmarknet Andhra Pradesh Kurnool NR NR - NR NR - Agmarknet Rajasthan Jaipur 750 750 Unch 300 246 54 Agmarknet Telangana Hyderabad 1050 750 300 400 600 -200 Agmarknet

Page 8: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Potato Today’s Development: (No significant developments today) Developments that are still influencing the Markets:

(1st May 2019) - Prices are trading lower than last year during same time period because of fresh potato coming in markets that is stored in sheds by farmers but prices are expected to increase after May mid because of release from cold storages will pick pace.

(30 April 2019) - Prices are increasing and likely to increase in coming days because release from cold storage is expected to start in couple of weeks.

(26 April 2019) - In U.P, prices in markets like Manipuri, Agra is trading on lower side because of the crop which is lying in open storage and prices may remain low for next few weeks but after May 2nd week prices are expected to increase.

(25 April 2019) - Potato prices are likely to move upward in coming couple of weeks because loading in cold store is similar to previous year in major producing regions.

(23 April 2019) - In Gujarat, traders are expecting approximately 75% capacity utilization compared to last year storage of 77.17% capacity utilization last year. In Gujarat, cold storage capacity is approximately 28.75 lakh tons.

(18 April 2019) - All India, potato prices are trading on lower side compared to last year but prices are still on higher side this year amid lower storage in West Bengal this year because of lower yield in later stage harvesting.

(18 April 2019) - In Punjab, traders are expecting a storage of approximately 70-75% this compared to last year 96% from a total storage of 19.66 lakh tons. Reason for lower storage was spell of rains many times which damaged the crop and crop size declined.

(12 April 2019) - In West Bengal, loading in cold storage is completed and traders are expecting 85% capacity utilization this year compared to last year 92% capacity utilization from a total storage of 70.62 lakh tons.

(12 April 2019) - In U.P, traders are expecting approximately 85% capacity utilization compared to last year 78% capacity utilization from a total storage of 142 lakh tons.

Price and Arrivals at Major Markets

Potato

State Markets Modal Wholesale Prices (Rs/Qtl) Arrivals in Tons

Source 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 Change 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 Change

Andhra Pradesh Palamaner 750 800 -50 0.80 0.60 0.20 NAM

Karnataka Bangalore NR 1250 - NR 959 - Agmarknet

Belgaum NR NR - NR NR - Agmarknet

Gujarat Surat 875 875 Unch 750 720 30 Agmarknet

Madhya Pradesh Indore NR 800 - NR 405 - Agmarknet

Maharashtra Pune NR 1100 - NR 665 - Agmarknet

Delhi Delhi 764 775 -11 1157 1540 -384 Agmarknet

Uttar Pradesh Agra NR 730 - NR 1575 - Agmarknet

Page 9: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Tomato

Today’s Developments: Madanapalle market reported closed on Friday because of Labours Day. IMD has forecasted rains and gusty winds in coming days which may increase the tomato prices

in coming days. Developments that are still influencing the Market:

(1st May 2019) - In Andhra Pradesh, prices are trading on higher side because of lower arrivals from producing regions amid lower crop size. Prices are expected to trade in similar range for coming weeks because of lower crop size of summer crop due lower water availability in dams.

(30 April 2019) - Prices are expected to remain on higher side amid lower crop size from producing regions.

(26 April 2019) - In A.P, arrivals are expected to remain low for coming months because of expectation of lesser summer crop compared to last year amid lower water levels.

(22 April 2019) - Prices are still on higher side in most of the markets of Andhra Pradesh and expected to remain in this range of next couple of days. Fresh crop is expected to come full fledge in next couple of weeks.

(19 April 2019) - IMD has forecasted gusty wind and rains in Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Interior Karnataka which may damage the tomato crop at maturity stage which expected to hit the markets in couple of weeks.

(18 April 2019) - In Madanapalle, modal prices are trading near Rs.2800/quintal compared to last year Rs.600/ quintal because of lower crop size and prices are likely to come down in coming weeks with increase in arrivals from local region.

(18 April 2019) - All India tomato arrivals are comparatively lower than last year during same time because of which prices are firm in market.

(15 April 2019) - In Andhra Pradesh, prices are trading on higher side because of lower arrivals from producing regions amid lower crop size. Prices are expected to come down in couple of weeks once arrivals from Andhra Pradesh starts full fledge.

Price and Arrivals in Major Markets

Tomato

State Markets Modal Wholesale Prices (Rs/Qtl.) Arrivals in Tons

Source 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 Change 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 Change

Andhra Pradesh

Mulakalacheruvu NR 800 - NR 18 - Agmarknet Madanapalle NR 2650 - NR 70 - NAM

Kalikiri 1800 3000 -1200 11 8 2.9 NAM Pattikonda NA NA - NA NA - NAM

Gurramkonda 3280 4200 -920 4 4 Unch NAM

Karnataka Chintamani NR 1733 - NR 47 - Agmarknet

Kolar 1533 2167 -634 224 174 50 Agmarknet Maharashtra Pune NR 1000 - NR 251 - Agmarknet Delhi Delhi 1327 1327 Unch 491 594 -103 Agmarknet Telangana Bowenpally NR NR - NR NR - Agmarknet

Page 10: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Turmeric

Today’s Developments:

Current year Turmeric sowing mainly depend on monsoon rainfall, after 15th May area expectations likely to be clear.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets:

In Maharashtra, current year Turmeric sowing likely to start from May. However, prevailing drought like condition has started impacting farmer’s pre sowing intention. During 01-03-2019 to 24-04-2019, in Marathwada region lower by 60% and in Madhya Maharashtra region rainfall departure lower by 24%. If it will continue we expect Turmeric sowing area drastically come down and likely to support prices.

In Erode mandi new Turmeric supply reported around on an average daily basis 4,000 – 5,000 quintals.

In Warangal market, new Turmeric entered to the market, on an average daily basis 1,200 – 1,500 quintal.

As per Agriwatch’s estimate in Andhra Pradesh, acreage to rise by 8% from last year’s 15,941 hectares to 17,216 hectares due to increase in prices. Production is likely to rise from 57,335 MT (basis dry crop) last year to 61,921 MT current year.

As per Agriwatch’s Second advance production estimate, Turmeric production for 2019-20 is estimated at 532,353 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 476,771 MT. Turmeric production may go down further as Maharashtra standing crop is at very crucial stage.

Prices & Arrivals

Turmeric

State Market Variety Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 01-May-19 30-Apr-19

Andhra Pradesh

Duggirala Finger NA 6000 - NA 417 - NAM Bulb NA 6000 -

Kadapa Finger NA 5358 - NA 53 - NAM Bulb NA 5377 -

Telangana Nizamabad

Finger 4001 6300 -2299 92 137 -45 NAM Bulb 5790 5890 -100

Warangal Finger Closed 6100 - Closed 1950 - Agriwatch Round Closed 5950 -

Tamil Nadu Erode Finger NA 6846 - NA 1011.5 - Agmarknet Bulb NA 6217 -

Page 11: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

NCDEX: Turmeric at NCDEX

Contract Change Open High Low Close Volume O.Int May-19 - - - - - - - Jun-19 - - - - - - - July-19 - - - - - - -

As on 01st May, 2019 at 5:00 pm Prices in Rs/quintal, Volumes and Open interest in MT

Page 12: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Chilli Today’s Developments:

In Guntur market, annual summer vacation likely to start from May third week for one month, we expect after reopen prices likely to go up further in the spot market.

Current year chilli sowing likely to start from July first week. We expect sowing area may increase due to prevailing higher prices and expecting higher further due to lower cold storage stocks, however monsoon rainfall is crucial factor for chilli sowing area.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets:

Continued export demand reported well from China, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Bangladesh and UAE etc.

As per trade information, chilli cold storage stocks as on date (including old and new crops) in Guntur stood at 229,500 to 234,000 MT and in Andhra Pradesh around 292,500 to 301,500 MT according to various trade estimates. Current year cold storage stocks reported lower as carry forward stocks reported less.

New crop supply continued in Guntur market, however current year quality reported lower due to lower rainfall and virus infection.

As per Agriwatch second advance estimate, Andhra Pradesh production likely to come 434,449 MT, last year it was 341,671 MT. In Andhra Pradesh acreage to rise by 45% from last year’s 87,608 hectares to 127,032 hectares.

As per Agriwatch’s second advance production estimate, Red Chilli production for 2019-20 is estimated at 12.22 lakh MT. Previous year’s production was 10.50 lakh MT.

Prices & Arrivals

Red Chilli

State Market Variety Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 01-May-19 30-Apr-19

01-May-19 30-Apr-19

Andhra Pradesh Guntur

Teja 8500 8500 Unch 91 812 -721 NAM 334 9000 8000 1000 300 1379 -1079 NAM

Telangana Khammam Red NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet Warangal Talu NA 2500 - NA 54510 - Agmarknet

Page 13: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Maize

Today’s Developments:

In Ahmedabad region of Gujarat, poultry feed makers quoted maize steady at Rs. 2150 per quintal while starch feed makers quoted maize steady at Rs. 2100 per quintal.

In Karnataka and Nizamabad region, maize is likely to trade steady to slightly weak as feed makers demand has shifted towards Bihar. While, In Bihar, maize could trade steady to weak due to new crop arrival pressure.

Maize is moving towards Punjab at Rs. 2000 per quintal and U.P at Rs. 1900 per quintal; sourced from Bihar.

Corn on CBOT rose by 2.66 USD/MT to 141.73 USD/MT for May’19 contract compared to previous day on the concern over yield loss due to delay in spring planting on the forecasts for more rain throughout this week in U.S Midwest.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets:

In U.S, corn planting has been 15% as of 30th Apr, 2019, which is lower by 12% compared to last 5 year average period.

As per trade sources, India exported 13,610 MT of maize for the month of March’19 at an average FOB of $310.23/ MT. Indian maize is exported mainly to Nepal mainly through Raxaul followed by Jogbani ICD and Bhimnagar ICD port.

As per media report, DGFT has allowed 1 lakh tonne maize import on 15 % duty for actual users. There would be no import for trade purpose right now. Notably, feed industries were allowed to import 5 lakh MT under TRQ.

Prices & Arrivals:

Maize

State/ District

Market Grade

Modal Price (Rs./Qtl)

Change Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 01 May

2019 30 Apr 2019

01 May 2019

30 Apr 2019

Telangana Nizamabad Bilty Closed Closed - Closed Closed - AGRIWATCH

Bihar Gulabbagh Bilty NR 1825 - NR 5000 - AGRIWATCH

Karnataka Davangere Bilty Closed 2225 - Closed 1000 - AGRIWATCH

Delhi Delhi Loose 2200 2150 50 NA NA - AGRIWATCH

Andhra Pradesh

Kurnool Loose NA NA - NA NA - ENAM

*Difference between current and previous day’s prices.

Page 14: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Sugar Today’s Developments: Indian sugar market prices showed mixed trend across India on Wednesday. Mills are warned by

the government to sell sugar not below MSP in all sugar producing states. The sudden rise in temperature and improved bulk and retail demand from cold drinks and juice makers lifted sugar prices by Rs.10-30 at major markets.

Kolhapur sugar market was closed on the occasion of Labour Day whereas in U.P’s Khatauli market at Rs.3300INR.

The food ministry yesterday released the notification allocating 21 LMT monthly sugar quota to each of 534 mills in the country. Those sugar mills which have completed their 75% to 100% export targets under MIEQ (Minimum Indicative Export Quota) allotted to them for the sugar season 2018-19 have been given incentive in the form of additional allocation @ 10% of their normal allocation for the month of May 2019. And those mills achieving 50 to 75% of their export targets under MIEQ quota for the season 2018-19 have been given @ 7.5% of their normal allocation for the month of May, 2019.

Today’s Developments that are still Influencing Markets: (1st May 2019) Government is likely to announce monthly sales quota for May month which is

speculated to be around 21 to 22 lakh tonnes according to trade sources which is higher than previous month’s quota of 18 lakh tonnes plus the centre also allowed mills to sell their unsold sugar stocks for March in April.

(30th April 2019) The sugar exports have been hindered by excess output and lower (than domestic) international prices. Between October 1, 2018 and April 6, 2019, India exported only 35 per cent out of the target of 5 MMT, though the crushing season is almost over. With the net supply continuing to far exceed demand, India is likely to open the new sugar year 2019-20 with a carry-over stock of over 10 MMT according to ISMA.

(29th April 2019) Of the 5 mln tn export target set by the government for 2018-19, Indian sugar mills have shipped out 2.2 mln tn of the sweetener until the start of April, and is likely to export 3.5 mln tn this season ending September.

(26th April 2019) Sugar production has already touched 31.2 mln tn, and it could come close to the last year's record of 32.5 mln tn as some mills in Maharashtra and U.P are still crushing cane.

(25th April 2019) Pakistan exports 1.5 Lakh Tonnes of sugar to China under the Chinese duty-free incentive package of $ 1 billion. As of last month Pakistan bagged the opportunity to export 3 lakh tonnes of sugar for which India has been waiting for long time. Pakistani official stated that that China has extended a duty free package for export of rice, sugar and 3.5 lakh tonnes of cotton yarn to Pakistan.

(24th April 2019) Sugar cane arrears of farmers in Uttar Pradesh till April 18 stands Rs.9,536 crore. Despite the central government’s announcement of a soft loan package of `3,000 crore for mills in UP and further Rs.500 crore from the state government to 24 cooperative sugar mills for settling the arrears.

(23rd April 2019)The Sugar Technologists Association of India (STAI) has urged the government to revise the minimum support price from Rs.3100/q to Rs.3600/q so that the sugar millers can overcome the financial crisis by paying the cane arrears to sugarcane farmers. Also The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Millers and the Maharashtra Federation of Cooperative Sugar Millers have been seeking a hike in MSP of sugar.

Page 15: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

(22nd April 2019) This year’s recovery rate up by 0.05% at 11.05% against last year recovery rate of 11%. This year the cooperative mills witnessed a hike in the recovery rate at 11.14% whereas private mills registered at 10.80% this sugar season.

(18th April 2019) Till Tuesday, of the 195 mills that have taken crushing in the season, only 27 mills are functional and at least three are expected to continue the season till May. The state has reported crushing of 949.01 lakh tonne cane and produced 106.71 lakh tonne of sugar in SS 2018-19 against 107 lakh tonne sugar, an all-time high production figure last year.

(17th April 2019) SME mills constitute one-third of the Rs.102,500 crore sugar market in India, as of SS 2018. Small and medium sugar mills might see an improvement in profitability because of the hike in MSP raised by the government in February and it is expected to have lower production in SS 2020, which will push up prices by the end of SS 2020.

(16th April 2019) Mills in the state owed cane farmers Rs. 4,600 crore due to the low price of sugar and lack of liquidity with the mills by the March end in Maharashtra. The centre announced a soft loan scheme of 2,500 crore in February but actual disbursal of money is yet to take place place.

(12th April 2019) Indian mills get contracts to export 2.7 mt sugar since the current season started from October 1st. Mills have already shipped out 1.7 million tonnes of the sweetener to the top destinations are Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Iran and Sudan.

(11th April 2019) U.P cane arrears of Rs.10,000 crore to be eased by 40% in the couple of days. the government has recently released Rs.1,100 crore for the private and state owned sugar mills. Private millers in U.P have been sanctioned about Rs.3000 crore under central sponsored soft loan scheme for the current crushing season 2018-19.

(10th April 2019) Maharashtra’s sugar output is likely to touch 10.7 mln tonnes from 10.5 mln tonnes in March in the current 2018/19 season, with 63 sugar mills in the state continuing to crush cane, according to local press reports.

(10th April 2019) Ethanol blending with petrol is estimated to touch 7.2 per cent in 2018-19 marketing year as record 237 million litre of supplies have been contracted which was was 4.22 per cent in 2017-18 marketing year (December to November) with supply of 150 crore litres according to ISMA.

Prices

Sugar (M grade)

State/ District Market Modal Price (Rs /Qtl)

Change Source 01 May-19 30Apr-19

Maharashtra Kolhapur NA 3100 - AW

Uttar Pradesh Khatauli 3300 3275 25 AW

Andhra Pradesh Vijayawada 3580 3580 unch AW

Delhi Delhi 3240 3225 15 AW

Page 16: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Cotton Today’s Developments:

Cotton prices expected to trade higher side as the crop has been short by 10-12% over last year and due to exports demand from International markets. Moreover, raising domestic demand and procurement by CCI also support prices. However, CCI started selling of its stock in first week of April may keep prices in range. Prices at Rajkot market were 6250 whereas in Adoni market was closed on the occasion of Labor Day.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Market (1st May 2019) Indian importers have booked nearly 19 lakh bales while export is just at 40

lakh bales. Net Outflow of cotton is near 20 lakh bales against last year’s above 50 lakh bales. Indian consumers are regularly booking imports as their long-term strategy. Indian physical market remain range bound as ginners are holding good stock so now selling further arrivals in the market provides liquidity at regular pace and also some profit booking of investors.

(29th Apr 2019) Maharashtra Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices are expecting to raise the minimum support price of cotton by 10 % and in the same lines CCI also told that there is a possibility of at least 10% increase in MSP for cotton in the coming kharif season.

(25th Apr 2019) The largest producer among the southern states, Telangana’s total cotton output is seen falling 19% on year to 4.1 mln bales in 2018-19 season due to sharp fall in yields led by moisture deficiency after scanty rains. The cotton yield expected to decline to 381kg/ha from 451 kg in the previous year.

(24th Apr 2019) This kharif season, farmers are planning to migrate to other competing crops like maize and soybean due to higher realization in these crops in the last few months. But, rainfall and their distribution pattern would set the trend for kharif sowing this season.

(23rd Apr 2019) All India daily cotton arrivals are reported to be about 55,000 to 70,000 bales according to CAI during last week. Cotton imports is on full hype and booked nearly 19 lakh bales due to low availability in India.

(22nd Apr 2019) All India daily cotton arrivals are reported to be about 75’000 bales according to CAI. Active import business continued for West African & US origins. India remains in the market for U.S. cotton which support prices to remain high and China, Vietnam and Turkey were major buyers.

(18th Apr 2019) According to CAI, the balance sheet projects total cotton supply of 37.60 million bales, a domestic consumption of 31.60 million bales, exports of 4.70 million bales and a carry-over stock of 1.3 million bales. New crop planting started in some areas of North India. Good availability of canal water and better prices of seed cotton in the current season against competing crops will likely favor cotton sowing in North India.

(17th Apr 2019) India's cotton crop production may fall 7.87 per cent to 343 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in the 2018-19 season, mainly due to drought in many cotton-growing regions, as per estimates released Monday by Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI). The domestic textile industry body based the projections on actual data collected from cotton-growing areas for the October-September 2018 crop season.

(16th Apr 2019) India expect to see a year-over-year increase of 7%, Brazil too is looking to produce some 12.5 million bales, or a 5% jump. Pakistan’s crop is expected to increase some 6.7% regarding global production for 2019.

Page 17: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

(16th Apr 2019) The weekly export sales report showed net sales for both marketing years, 2018-19 and 2019-20, at 527,700 bales. This included current year sales of 289,000 bales of Upland and 30,200 of Pima. Vietnam, India and China were major buyers.

(15th Apr 2019) The cotton output this year is likely to decline by 27% to 82 lakh bales lowest since 2008 despite of higher than normal sowing against last year’s output of 105 lakh bales in Gujarat, the largest producer of natural fibre in India. This is due to scanty of rainfall in the major cotton producing areas reducing the per hectare yield to 532kg form 619kg in the previous year.

(12th Apr 2019) Total cotton supply projected is 290.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each during the period from October 2018 to March 2019 which consists of the arrival of 255.83 lakh bales upto 31st March 2019, imports of 6.17 lakh bales upto 31st March 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season at 28 lakh bales.

(11th Apr 2019) According to CAI, cotton exports for the season (October 2018-September 2019) estimated a decline to 47 lakh bales, against last year’s estimated 69 lakh bales. This dip is attributed to the higher prices and smaller crop size of Indian cotton. The imports this year are likely to be higher at 27 lakh bales, against last year’s estimated 15 lakh bales.

(10th Apr 2019) Andhra pegs 2018-19 cotton crop 1.44 mln bales vs 2.04 mln bales yr ago due to lower acreage and yields. In Jun-Sep, Andhra Pradesh received 443.1 mm rainfall, 12% below normal. Villages in Anantapur district have been declared drought-hit, and major parts of Kadapa, Kurnool, Chittoor, Prakasam and Nellore witnessed scanty and deficient rainfall.

(8th Apr 2019) Daily arrivals have declined to about 80,000-90,000 bales as against 1.3 lakh bales last year. So far about 42 lakh bales have been exported, some 2 lakh bales have been exported to Bangladesh. Another 40 lakh bales have been exported to Vietnam, China and Bangladesh, among others. Another 5-6 lakh bales are expected to be exported, according to reports. Due to higher prices, export contracts have taken a halt. But the target of 50 lakh bales will be achieved with China and Bangladesh as key destinations by September, 2019.

(6th Apr 2019) The arrivals for 2018-19 season reached 25.03 million bales as of March 26th down 4.6% on y-o-y, as per the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI). Weather forecasts predict that the southwest monsoon rains during the June- September period are expected to be below normal, mainly attributed to the El-nino phenomenon. An 80% chance of EL- nino during March- May and 60% chance during Jun-Aug is predicted.

(3rd Apr 2019) According to CCI, market arrivals of cotton stood at 254 lakh bales of 170 kg each till 1st April against a target of 328 lakh bales this season. Further decline has been seen as on April 2, market arrivals stood at 75,000 bales as against 1.35 lakh bales on the same day last year.

Prices & Arrivals

Cotton

State/ District Market Modal Price (Rs /Qtl)

Change Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 01-May-19 30-Apr-19 Gujarat Rajkot 6250 6220 30 1180 1200 -20 APMC Andhra Pradesh Adoni NA 6390 - NA 2360 - Agriwatch Andhra Pradesh Guntur NA NA - NA NA - Agriwatch Andhra Pradesh YEMMIGANUR NA NA - NA NA - NAM

Page 18: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Palm Oil

Today’s Developments:

According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia’s Apr palm oil exports rose 0.5 percent to 1,584,660 tons compared to 1,577,521 tons last month. Top buyers were India at 483,770 tons (355,015 tons), European Union 290,778 tons (312,540 tons), China at 190,435 tons (216,190 tons), Pakistan at 56,000 tons (126,000 tons) and United States at 29,316 tons (59,905 tons). Values in brackets are figures of last month.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets:

(30 Apr 2019)-Palm oil prices are expected to rise on expected fall in end stocks of palm oil in Malaysia in April on strong exports prospects from Malaysia. Palm oil exports rose 1.4 percent from Malaysia in April as India and China increased its buying. Palm oil imports by China from Malaysia has risen due to lower imports of soybean due to swine flu and negative crush margins has led to lower crush of soybean leading to lower production of soy oil has led to higher imports if palm oil. Palm oil imports from India have firmed in April due to bargain buying as low prices supported imports. Both India and China is taking advantage of low prices of palm oil. Palm oil production in April in Malaysia will stay elevated in April thereby limiting fall in palm oil stocks in Malaysia. Exports are expected to rise in April from Malaysia due to firm demand from India and China. Palm oil imports by EU from Malaysia are expected to be hit due to ban of use of palm oil in biodiesel due to rapid deforestation by Malaysia and Indonesia. Depreciation of Ringgit is expected to support palm oil exports from Malaysia and support prices. Rise in crude oil prices are expected to support palm oil prices.

(29 Apr 2019)-According to Indonesia trade ministry, Indonesia kept May crude palm oil export duty unchanged at zero. The reference price is set at USD 573.31 per ton, much lower than lower threshold for export duty. Indonesia has kept crude palm oil export duty at zero since May 2017.

(16 Apr 2019)-Crude Palm oil import scenario- According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), CPO Imports fell 19.8 percent y-o-y in Mar to 4.75 lakh tons from 5.92 lakh tons in Mar 2019. Imports in oil year 2018-19 (November 2018-March 2019) were reported marginally lower y-o-y at 28.56 lakh tons compared to 29.79 lakh tons in last oil year, lower by 4.13 percent in the corresponding period last oil year.

(16 Apr 2019)-RBD palmolein import scenario- RBD palmolein imports rose y-o-y in Mar by 92 percent to 3.13 lakh tons from 1.63 lakh tons in Mar 2018. Imports in oil year 2018-19 (November 2019-March 2019) were reported higher by 24.64 perecent y-o-y at 9.61 lakh tons compared to 7.71 lakh tons in corresponding period last oil year.

(10 Apr 2019)-According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia’s March palm oil stocks fell 4.64 percent to 29.17 lakh tons compared to 30.59 lakh tons in February 2019. Production of palm oil in March rose 8.25 percent to 16.72 lakh tons compared to 15.45 lakh tons in Feb 2019. Exports of palm oil in March rose 22.37 percent to 16.18 lakh tons compared to 13.22 lakh tons

Page 19: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

in Feb 2019. Imports of palm oil in Mar rose 39.21 percent to 1.31 lakh tons compared to 0.94 lakh tons in Feb 2019. End stocks of palm oil fell less than trade expectation on higher rise in prodcution. Fall in end stocks was primarily due to rise in exports.

(3 Apr 2019)-According to Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), exports of palm oil (CPO and PKO) from Indonesia rose 16.7 percent in Feb y-o-y to 2.77 MMT from 2.37 MMT in Feb 2018. Exports of palm oil (CPO and PKO) were fell 10.6 m-o-m in Feb at 2.77 MMT compared to Jan 2019 at 3.10 MMT. Stocks of palm oil in Feb 2019 fell to 2.5 MMT from 3.02 MMT in Jan, down 17 percent m-o-m.

(19 Mar 2019)-According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia kept April crude palm oil export duty unchanged at 0.0 percent. Export duty of palm oil is calculated at reference price of 2056.04 ringgit ($502.70) per ton. Tax is calculated above 2,250 ringgit starting from 4.5 percent to a maximum of 8.5 percent.

Prices:

Palm Oil Prices (In Rs./ 10 Kg) State/District Market 1 May 2019 30 Apr 2019 Change Source

Crude Palm Oil (FFA 5%) Gujarat Kandla 532 532 Unch Agriwatch Andhra Pradesh Krishnapatnam Closed 510 - Agriwatch RBD Palmolein Gujarat Kandla 600 600 Unch Agriwatch Andhra Pradesh Kakinada 598 598 Unch Agriwatch Andhra Pradesh Krishnapatnam 590 590 Unch Agriwatch

*Difference between current and previous day’s prices.

Palm Oil at MCX

Contract Open High Low Close Change Volume(Lots) O.Int

30-Apr-19 528.00 529.00 523.00 523.70 -6.00 761 5612 31-May-19 533.50 533.90 528.30 528.60 -6.60 171 610

30-Jun-19 535.00 535.00 533.00 534.00 -8.00 3 4 As on 30-Apr-2019 at 9 pm Rs/Quintal

Page 20: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Sunflower oil

Today’s Developments:

Sunflower oil premium over soy oil in CNF markets have increased to $59 per ton from $28 per ton last week and premium in domestic markets have reached to 5 per 10 kg, up Rs 5 per 10 kg from last week. Also, premium of sunflower oil over RBD palmolein has increased to Rs 160 per 10 kg Rs 135 per 10 kg last week. Prices of sunflower oil are estimated to trade higher on firm demand and parity in imports. High premium over palm oil will cap gains in prices.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets:

(16 Apr 2019)-Sunflower oil imports scenario- According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), Sunflower oil imports rose 41.9 percent y-o-y in Mar to 2.98 lakh tons from 2.11 lakh tons in Mar 2018. Imports in oil year 2018-19 (November 2018-March 2019) were reported higher by 7.42 percent y-o-y at 11.00 lakh tons compared to 10.24 lakh tons in last oil year.

(12 Apr 2019)-Sunflower oil premium over soy oil in CNF markets have decreased to $28 per ton from $40 per ton last week and premium in domestic markets have reached to 0 per 10 kg unchanged from last week. Also, premium of sunflower oil over RBD palmolein has decreased to Rs 135 per 10 kg Rs 150 per 10 kg last week. Prices of sunflower oil are estimated to trade lower on weak demand and disparity in imports. High premium over palm oil will underpin prices.

(10 Apr 2019)-According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) April estimate, India’s 2018/19 sunflower oil import estimate have been raised to 24 lakh tons from 22 lakh tons in its earlier estimate, higher by 9 percent. Sunflower oil consumption have been raised to 26 lakh tons from 23 lakh tons in its earlier estimate, higher by 13 percent.

(29 Mar 2019)-Across board weakness is seen in sunflower cash markets in March. Sunflower oil CNF also showed weakness but at a lower rate. Import demand of sunflower oil is expected to fall due to high sunflower oil premium over palm oil. Stocks of sunflower oil fell at ports despite flat imports indicating destocking at ports will increase import demand. Low premium of sun oil over soy oil is expected to increase demand in increase import demand. Further weakness in sunflower oil is expected in coming weeks.

Prices:

Sunflower Oil Prices (In Rs./ 10 Kg) State/District Market 1 May 2019 30 Apr 2019 Change Source

Tamil Nadu Chennai Closed 755 - Agriwatch Andhra Pradesh Krishnapatnam Closed 745 - Agriwatch Andhra Pradesh Kakinada Closed 745 - Agriwatch

*Difference between current and previous day’s prices.

Page 21: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Groundnut oil

Today’s Developments

No Significant Development

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets:

(19 Apr 2019)-Groundnut oil prices are supported by firm demand. Retail demand improved due to stability in groundnut oil prices. Prices of groundnut oil will be capped as peak demand season is over. Higher premium groundnut oil over sunflower oil and palm oil will cap gains in groundnut oil prices. In Andhra Pradesh groundnut oil prices are falling due to weak demand against good stock position and pressure on prices due to harvest of groundnut.

(25 Mar 2019)-Groundnut oil prices are supported by firm demand. Demand firmed due to demand at lower levels. Retail demand improved due to stability in groundnut oil prices. Prices of groundnut oil will be capped as peak demand season is over. Higher unloading of stocks of groundnut by NAFED will keep prices moderate. Higher premium groundnut oil over sunflower oil and palm oil will cap gains in groundnut oil prices. In Andhra Pradesh groundnut oil prices are falling due to weak demand against good stock position and pressure on prices due to harvest of groundnut.

(12 Mar 2019)-Groundnut oil prices increased on improved demand. However, Groundnut oil prices will remain under pressure further due to high stocks of groundnut with NAFED. Also, exports of groundnut are weak and it is diverted towards crushing thereby increasing supply of groundnut oil. There is parity in crush of groundnut for old crop. Groundnut oil is underpinned by fall in prices of palm oil.

(26 Feb 2019)-Groundnut oil prices are expected to be supported by demand at lower levels. Retail demand is expected to strengthen due to stability of groundnut oil prices. There is demand at these levels. However, groundnut oil prices will remain under pressure due to high stocks of groundnut with NAFED. Also, exports of groundnut are weak and it is diverted towards crushing thereby increasing supply of groundnut oil. In Andhra Pradesh groundnut oil prices are falling in parity with Gujarat and weak demand. Stock position of groundnut oil is good and there is parity inn crush of groundnut. Groundnut oil is supported by falling premium over sunflower oil.

Prices:

Groundnut Oil Prices (In Rs./ 10Kg)

State/District Market 1 May 2019 30 Apr 2019 Change Source Gujarat Rajkot 960 1025 -65 Agriwatch Telangana Hyderabad Closed 1040 - Agriwatch Tamil Nadu Chennai Closed 1000 - Agriwatch

*Difference between current and previous day’s prices.

Page 22: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

Rice

Today’s Developments: Since the arrival of paddy in the mandis is negligible, the rice spot market increased by 16% in

April. Exports of non-basmati rice decreased 13.6% compared to last year to 67.11 lakh tonnes which was 77.66 lakh tonnes from April to February last year. However Exports of basmati rice increased by 6.5% to 38.55 lakh tonnes. Overall rice exports, compared to last year, exports were down by 7.2% to 105 lakh tonnes.

Despite the decline in exports compared to last year, due to the normalization of production and the ample availability of rice in the central pool, due to the decrease in the paddy arrival, market has started accelerating.

Recent Developments that are still influencing the Markets: (01 May 2019) Ivory Coast banned rice imports from Singapore-based commodity trader Olam

International for one year after destroying an 18,000-tonne shipment of spoilt. (30 Apr 2019) India’s rice stocks in the central pool as on April- 1, 2019 stood at 39.81

million tons up by 32.52% from 30.04 million tons recorded during the corresponding period last year, according to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI). India's rice stocks in the central pool are down by 0.69% by from 40.09 million tons recorded on Feb-01, 2019. Highest stock could be seen in the state of Punjab (108.94 lakh tons) followed by A.P (26.37 lakh tons) Uttar Pradesh (25.89 Lakh Tons) and Haryana (24.04 lakh tons).

(29 Apr 2019) Uncertainty looms over basmati, tea exports after Iran sanctions: Uncertainty looms over tea and basmati rice exports from India as the US intends to fully clamp down on Iran oil exports, say companies and trade association. Industry is concerned as India is an importer of crude oil from Iran and any sanction on Iran can impact trade of other commodities India export. India annually exports 30 million kg of tea and one million tonnes of basmati rice to Iran. Iranian demand for orthodox Indian teas was very strong from the beginning of the new season that kicks off in April. Similarly, basmati trading companies were sending shiploads of rice since December and were expecting a peak season till June.

(23 Apr 2019) Asian rice exporting hubs saw tepid activity this week, with prices for the staple from top exporter India dipping on lower demand, while Bangladesh mulled a review of its ban on exports of the grain. India’s 5 percent broken parboiled variety was quoted around $377-$380 per ton, down from last week’s $387-$390. Demand from African buyers was weak as they have ample inventories. Aggressive selling of old inventories by China at lower prices has also weighing on prices. India’s rice exports for April-February dropped 9.4 percent from a year earlier to 10.57 million tons, as leading buyer Bangladesh trimmed its purchases due to a bumper local harvest.

(22 Apr 2019)A group of Indian scientists has developed a new salt-tolerant transgenic rice plant by over-expressing a gene from a wild rice called Porteresia coarctata into the commonly

Page 23: AP Daily Commodities Outlook Report 2019-05-02...2019/05/02  · ì î v î ì í õ D Ç ì

Daily Price Monitoring Report 02nd May, 2019

used IR 64 indica rice variety. Porteresia coarctata is a native of India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar and is grown mainly in saline estuaries.

(18 Apr 2019)Rice export prices in top exporter India edged lower this week due to sluggish demand, while fears of a drought this year supported up domestic buying in Thailand. India’s 5 percent broken parboiled variety was quoted around $387-$390 per ton this week, down from last week’s $390-$393. Demand is very poor at current price level. The appreciation in the rupee has limited scope to cut prices. A strong rupee dents exporters’ returns from overseas sales.

Prices & Arrivals

State/ District Grade Market

Modal Price (Rs /Qtl) Chan

ge

Arrivals (Qtl) Change Source

01-May-19

30-Apr-19

01-May-19

30-Apr-19

CHHATTISGARH PADDY 1001 BALOD 1625 1515 110 32 30 2 E-nam

CHHATTISGARH

Paddy HMT BHATAPARA

1985 2000 -15 22 45 -23 Agriwatch

CHHATTISGARH

Paddy-samba Masuri

RAJIM 1815 1820 -5 54 75 -21 Agriwatch

TELANGANA PADDY-SONA BADEPALLY 1750 1770 -20 22 10 12 NAM

TELANGANA

1010 MAHBUBNAGAR

1720 1650 70 44 35 9 NAM

Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the Company. IASL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment). Please see the detailed disclaimer at © 2019 Indian Agribusiness Systems Ltd.


Recommended