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A little bit of statistical history

and history of statistics

Ragnhild Rein Bore (Statistics Norway)

Nordic Statistical Meeting 2013

Bergen, 14-16th of august

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First Nordic statistical meeting – July 1889 in

Kristiania (Oslo)

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Small meeting with Gad, Sidenbladh and Kiær

• Chief statisticians in Norway,

Sweden and Denmark

• Goal: ”To create greater unity

between official statistical

publications in the Nordic

countries.”

• On the agenda: Census

publications and external trade

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Issues great and small were under debate

Some examples:

• Area should be measured in square kilometers with at least

two decimals

• Debating whether lodgers who ate at the table of the head

for the household was part of the household or single.

• Discrepancies between the Swedish and the Norwegian

figures for ”Blandinger i første og andet Led” (”Mixed race in

first and second generation) when it came to sami people.

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Still – their topics of discussion are recognisable

to us even 124 years later

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Official statistics in the Nordic countries in 1889

• All but Iceland had official

statistical offices

• All had official publications series

for official statistics

• The concept of ”Statistics”

included both numerical

descriptons of society and

statistical methods.

”It was not always so…”

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”Statistik”

• From German

• First coined by Gottfried Achenwall in 1749

• Meaning – political science/about the state

• Usually meant long, ponderous descriptions of a

country or a region...

(Seldom any numerical information before late 18th century.)

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Statistic-topographical works

” The first attempt at Norway’s Natural History”

”- describing this kingdom’s Air, Soil, Mountains, Lakes,

Plants, Metals, Minerals, Geology, Animals, Birds, Fish and

finally the Inhabitants and their way of life and particular

traits” (1752-53)

by Erich Pontoppidan

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Did the bishop discover oil in the North Sea?

«It is expected, that in the sea as on ground, there will be

running oil flows or streams of Petroleo, Naphta, (...) and

other oil type juices»

- Pontoppidan (1752-53)

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If so, the experts did not take note

”...we can disregard the possible existence of coal, oil or

sulphur on the Norwegian continental shelf”

- The Geological Survey of Norway (1958)

...

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The statistical-topographic tradition dies out

• These statistical-topographic work turned out to be

insufficient in relation to the needs of the modern state in

the 19th century.

• Statistics stopped being a collection of curiosities and

written descriptions.

• Official statistical offices were established in many

countries.

• Official statistics grew in importance and had the nation

state as its paramount category.

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More relevant roots: Political arithmetic

• Arose in Great Britain in the late 17th century

• Used everyday-arithmetic on real statistical problems

• Ex. Counting the number of chimneys to estimate the population of a town

• This tradition ”stole” the name statistics for the first time in the 1790s.

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Scandinavians were statistical pioneers

• It was a dane, Joh. Peter Anchersen, who first compiled comparable data in table form from different countries (1741)

• The development towards tables with data which could be used for comparative purposes became an important part of official statistics

• The Swedish scientists Anders Berch, Pehr Elvius and Pehr Wargentin brougth political arithmetic to Sweden in the 18th century

• Elvius was active in the work to establish ”Tabellverket” in 1749 – the world’s first government office for official statistics

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So back to 1889 and the first Nordic Statistical

Meeting

• Statistics, both as numerical descriptions and as

mathematical methods, had acquired the meaning it has

today.

• And that census publications were on the agenda in 1889 is

not surprising

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The Nordic countries were also census pioneers

• Finnish-Swedish census of 1749

considered first registration of the

entire population of a nation.

• (The Icelandic census of 1701 did

the same, but Iceland was not a

sovereign nation at the time)

First complete censuses elsewhere:

• Denmark: 1801

• Norway: 1801

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Censuses can be controversial

• In Norway, census data were used by the government to ”civilize” the

sami population.

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The story of the 1937 Soviet census

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The 1937 Soviet census (cont.)

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Concluding remarks