Appendix 2 LAP Transport Assessment Issue - Durban

eThekwini Municipality

Outer West Corridor and Cato Ridge LAP Study

Cato Ridge LAP Traffic Assessment

182059/Reports

Rev F | 23 April 2012

Arup (Pty) Ltd Reg. No. 1994/004081/07 Registered Firm Consulting Engineers South Africa

This report takes into account the particular

instructions and requirements of our client.

It is not intended for and should not be relied

upon by any third party and no responsibility is

undertaken to any third party.

Job number 182059

Arup (Pty) Ltd

PostNet Suite 25 Private Bag X504

Northway 4065 Durban South Africa

www.arup.com

182059/Reports | Rev F | 23 April 2012

F:\PROJECTS - TRANSPORTATION\TRANSPORTATION - REAL JOBS\182059 - OUTER WEST CORRIDOR STUDY AND CR LAP\3 REPORTS\ISSUED\CR LAP REV F\0013CR LAP TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT ISSUE

REV F.DOCX

Document Verification

Job title Outer West Corridor and Cato Ridge LAP Study Job number

182059

Document title Cato Ridge LAP Traffic Assessment File reference

Document ref 182059/Reports

Revision Date Filename 0001CR LAP Traffic Assessment.docx

Draft 1 06/08/10 Description First draft

Prepared by Checked by Approved by

Name Mohamed Kajee /

James Eastham Theo le Roux Theo le Roux

Signature

Draft 2 31/01/11 Filename 0004CR LAP Traffic Assessment (D2).docx

Description Revised following comments from the client




Signature

Issue 27/05/11 Filename 0004CR LAP Traffic Assessment Issue.docx

Description Issued to client




Signature

Rev A 12/08/11 Filename 0007CR LAP Traffic Assessment Issue (REV A).docx

Description Revised following comments from the client




Signature

Issue Document Verification with Document



REV F.DOCX

Document Verification Page 2 of 3


182059



Revision Date Filename 0009CR LAP Transport Assessment Issue (REV A).docx

Rev B 20/09/11 Description




Signature

Rev C 12 Jan

2012 Filename 0010CR LAP Transport Assessment Issue E Rev C.docx

Description




Signature

Rev D 16 Jan

2012 Filename 0011CR LAP Transport Assessment Issue Rev D.docx

Description Updated following comments from the client




Signature

Rev E 7 Mar

2012 Filename 0012Cr LAP Transport Assessment Issue Rev E.docx

Description In place of this text, record a summary of revisions since the last

version (these will be transferred into the DV sheet for you).




Signature




REV F.DOCX

Document Verification Page 3 of 3


182059



Revision Date Filename 0013CR LAP Transport Assessment Issue Rev F.docx

Rev F 23 Apr

2012

Description Additional industrial area added at the request of the Client




Signature

Filename

Description


Name

Signature

Filename

Description


Name

Signature

Filename

Description


Name

Signature


eThekwini Municipality Outer West Corridor and Cato Ridge LAP Study



F:\PROJECTS - TRANSPORTATION\TRANSPORTATION - REAL JOBS\182059 - OUTER WEST CORRIDOR STUDY AND CR LAP\3 REPORTS\ISSUED\CR LAP REV F\0013CR

LAP TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT ISSUE REV F.DOCX

Contents

Page

Executive Summary i

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Background 1

1.1.1 Outer West Corridor SFP Summary 1

1.1.2 Cato Ridge Context 2

1.1.3 Purpose of Document 2

1.2 Objectives 2

1.3 Approach 3

2 Scope of Study 4

2.1 Study Area 4

2.2 Peak Hours Assessed 4

2.3 Assessment Years 4

3 Model Development 9

3.1 Network Coding 9

3.2 Zone Development 9

3.2.1 Zone Numbering System 10

3.3 Matrix Development 13

3.3.1 Roadside Interview Survey 14

3.3.2 Number Plate Recording Survey 14

3.3.3 Traffic Counts at Strategic Locations 14

3.3.4 AM Peak Hour Matrix 14

3.4 Calibration and Validation 16

4 Proposed Development 17

4.1 Development Description 17

4.1.1 Industrial Land Use 19

4.2 Land Use Distribution 20

4.3 Trip Generation 24

5 Road Infrastructure 27

5.1 Proposed Scheme 27

5.1.1 Proposed Scheme Infrastructure 27

5.1.2 Proposed Scheme Infrastructure Costs 31

6 Traffic Analysis 35

6.1 Methodology 35

6.2 Base Year Model 35






6.2.1 N3 Toll Road 35

7 Results 38

7.1 Existing Road network 38

7.2 Road Improvement Package One – Construction of Links 4-3, 8-1,

10-1 and 10-2 39

7.3 Road Improvement Package Two – Link 3-1 42

7.4 Road Improvement Package Three – Links 1-1 and 1-2 43

7.5 Road Improvement Package Four – Link 2-1 48

7.6 Phase Five – Link 7-4 49

7.7 Road Improvement Package Six – Link 7-3, Total Development 50

7.8 Introduction of the Interchange at an Earlier Phase 54

7.8.1 Road Improvement Package One 54

7.8.2 Road Improvement Package Two 57

8 PUBLIC TRANSPORT 60

8.1 Existing Public Transport Infrastructure 60

8.2 Existing Public Transport Routes and Services 60

8.3 Proposed Public Transport 61

9 Conclusion and Recommendations 64

9.1 Conclusion 64

9.1.1 Beyond 2030 67

9.2 Recommendations 68

Tables

Table 1: Original "360 Traffic Zone" Numbers and the Revised Micro-Zone

Number

Table 2: Land Uses and Their Split Between CR LAP and OWC Area

Table 3: Land Uses per Infrastructure Cost Zone

Table 4: Road Improvement Packages and Associated Land Release

Table 5: Additional Industrial Land Uses and Their Final GLA

Table 6: The Proportion of Land Use per Traffic Zone

Table 7: Trips Generated for the AM Peak Based on the EMME/3 Model Trip

Rates

Table 8: Revised Number of Trips After Loading the Network with Additional

Trips

Table 9: Infrastructure Cost Zones and Associated Road Infrastructure for the

Proposed Scheme

Table 10: Specification and Cost for Each of the New Roads Planned for the

Proposed Scheme

Table 11: Summary of Infrastructure Costs per Infrastructure Cost Zone






Table 12: Road Infrastructure Packages and Additional Road Infrastructure

Required

Figures

Figure 1: Cato Ridge Local Area Plan Boundary

Figure 2: Road Improvement Packages and Associated Land Release

Figure 3: Infrastructure Cost Zones

Figure 4: Micro Traffic Zones for the SATURN Modelling

Figure 5: Additional Traffic Counts for the SATURN Modelling

Figure 6: Proposed Road Infrastructure Plan

Figure 7: V/C Ratio for Hammarsdale Interchange with the Existing Road Network

Figure 8: V/C Ratio for Cato Ridge Village, the MR385 and R103 with the Existing

Road Network

Figure 9: V/C Ratio for Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1

Figure 10: V/C Ratio for Cato Ridge Village and R103 for RIP 1

Figure 11: V/C Ratio for an Upgraded Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1

Figure 12: V/C Ratios for Eddie Hagan Drive and the New Link Road in RIP 1

Figure 13: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge Village and the R103 for RIP 2

Figure 14: V/C Ratios for the Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 3

Figure 15: V/C Ratios for the R103 for RIP 3

Figure 16: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge Village for RIP 3

Figure 17: V/C Ratios for Hammarsdale Interchange Following Various Upgrades

for RIP 3

Figure 18: V/C Ratios for the R103 Following Widening for RIP 3

Figure 19: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge with the Upgraded Interchange and MR385

for RIP 3

Figure 20: V/C Ratios for the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 3


Figure 22: V/C Ratios for Eddie Hagan Drive for RIP 4



Figure 25: V/C Ratios for the MR385 for RIP 6


Figure 27: Select Link Analysis for the New Link Road

Figure 28: Select Link Analysis Showing the Route Vehicles Take to Eddie Hagan

Drive

Figure 29: V/C Ratios for Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1 with the New

Interchange and Link Road

Figure 30: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge Village and R103 for RIP 1 with the New

Interchange and Link Road

Figure 31: V/C Ratios for an Upgraded Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1 with

the New Interchange and Link Road

Figure 32: Number of Vehicles on the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 1






Figure 33: Select Link Analysis of the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 1

Figure 34: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge and R103 for RIP 2 with the New Interchange

and Link Road

Figure 35: Number of Vehicles using the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 2

Figure 36: Select Link Analysis for the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 2

Figure 37: Proposed Public Transport Infrastructure

Figure 38: Graph Showing the Industrial GLA and Additional Road Infrastructure

Required

Appendices

Appendix A

2010 Base AM Matrix

Appendix B

SATURN RESULTS






Page i

Executive Summary

The Cato Ridge Local Area Plan is the second part of the Outer West Corridor Study and Cato Ridge Local Area Plan. This part of the project concentrates on development of the Cato Ridge area.

The Outer West Corridor Study (OWCS) looked at the impact of development within the Outer West Corridor. The OWC covered the N3 corridor from Shongweni to the eThekwini boundary to the west of Cato Ridge. The first part of the project used the software Emme3 to assess the impact that development of the OWCS corridor would have on the strategic road network within the OWC and to a further extent the rest of eThekwini. The aim of the Emme2 model was to provide the maximum amount of development that the strategic road network would be able to accommodate with realistic road upgrades to the network.

The results from the Emme3 model showed that the following land areas could be accommodated within the OWC with the N3 upgraded to four lanes per direction. The areas of land developed within the OWC are as follows

1083ha, or 19,819, residential units;

830ha, or 2,531,500m², of industrial;

913ha, or 559,931m² of commercial/mixed use.

The modelling also provided information on where the development would occur so from this it as possible to deduce whether the development would occur in the OWC or Cato Ridge area. The split between them can be seen in the table below.

Land Use

CR LAP OWC Total

Ha GLA (m²) Ha GLA (m²) Ha GLA (m²)

Residential 89 1189 994 18,630 1083 19,819

Industrial 385414 1,218,165 445 1,357,250 859 2,575,415

Commercial / Mixed Use

67 139,223 846 417,698 913 556,931

The second stage of the project is to take the development areas for Cato Ridge and refine the location of these areas in order to produce the Cato Ridge Local Area Plan and the Village and Industrial Precinct Plans. The purpose of the transport section is to determine the impact that the developments will have on the surrounding roads, the infrastructure upgrades required to the existing road network and any new roads and intersections that will be required in order to accommodate the traffic.

In order to determine the impact the development will have on the road network the software SATURN was used to model the road network and associated traffic and upgrades. A SATURN model of the Cato Ridge area was developed and into this was imported the matrix for each scenario. Each scenario was modelled for the AM peak with the background traffic increased to simulate expected traffic in 2030.






Page ii

In order to provide some thought to the release of land and how the road infrastructure is phased the study area has been split into a number of areas and these are referred to as Road Improvement Packages (RIP). Each RIP has an area of land associated to it that is unlocked when the road improvements are implemented. The table and the diagram shows the land released as a result of each RIP.

Road Improvement Package (RIP)

Industrial GLA (m²)

Residential (no. of units)

Commercial / Business (GLA m²)

Facility

Existing 408,002 641 16,995 12,889

RIP 1 191,224

RIP 2 100,824

RIP 3 212,463

RIP 4 148,835

RIP 5 49,986

RIP 6 139,010

Total 1,250,344 641 16,995 12,889






Page iii

Each RIP and associated land were modelled in the SATURN software and then an examination of the model was carried out to determine if any of the roads or intersections had a Volume/Capacity ratio greater than 90%. If this was the case then the road or intersection was upgraded to reduce the V/C ratio to less than 90%. In some instances additional upgrades were required in order to reduce the V/C ratios.

The infrastructure required and the point at which additional infrastructure are required in order for the development to be undertaken are shown in the table below.

As well as providing road infrastructure improvements, a number of public transport initiatives are planned for the area to help reduce the number of vehicles. These include upgrading of the existing mini-bus taxi rank to accommodate buses, a number of new stops on Eddie Hagan Drive and the R103. A new route will also be implemented that will connect the residential areas of Cato Ridge and Ximba to the industrial areas on Eddie Hagan Drive, south of the R103 and To Buchanan Road.


Total Industrial GLA (m²)

Road Infrastructure Additional Road Infrastructure

Existing 408,002 NA Localised widening of some intersections where required

RIP 1 599,226

Link 4-3, 8-1, 10-1 and 10-2

Signalisation of Eddie Hagan Drive/94042TRK

Widening of bridge over the N3 at the Hammarsdale

Interchange and for a distance north and south of the

interchange

Upgrade of Hammarsdale Interchange to signals

RIP 2 700,050

Link 3-1

Signalisation of Eddie Hagan Drive/R103 and

Eddie Hagan Drive/Link 3-1 intersection

New interchange and link road for the N3

Widening of the N3 to four lanes per direction between the

Peacevale and Cato Ridge interchanges

Upgrade of the Cato Ridge Interchange to signals

Widening of the MR385/R103 to two lanes per direction from

the Old Georgedale Road intersection to the eastbound

on-slip

Widening of Eddie Hagan Drive to two lanes per direction

between the R103 and 65301TRK

Signalisation of the Dunbar Drive/R103 intersection

RIP 3 912,513

Link 1-1

Signalisation of Eddie Hagan Drive/65301 TRK

and Eddie Hagan Drive/Drakensberg Street

intersections






Page iv

RIP 4 1,061,348 Link 2-1

Upgrade of the R103 to two lanes per direction between the

eastbound on-slip and Eddie Hagan Drive

RIP 5 1,111,334

Link 7-4

Construction of intersections on link road

RIP 6 1,250,344 Link 7-3






Page 1

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

The Graham Muller and Associates Consortium were appointed by the eThekwini Municipality to undertake the Outer West Corridor and Cato Ridge LAP Study. The study consists of two parts, the development of a Spatial Framework Plan (SFP) for the Outer West Corridor (OWC) of Durban and the development of Local Area and Precinct Plans for the Cato Ridge area. To date the first part of the study i.e. the development of the SFP for the OWC has been completed.

Arup, a team member of the Graham Muller and Associates Consortium undertook the traffic and transport assessment for the Cato Ridge Local Area Plan and Precinct Plan.

1.1.1 Outer West Corridor SFP Summary

The following extract presents a summary of the OWC SFP:

“As outlined in previous sections, the corridor provides the most important linkage of the municipality to the west in terms of the Province and South Africa. While past and present development has been limited, it is generally agreed that the area contains much more substantial development opportunities and will come under increased pressure for development. This and subsequent more detailed plans are intended to guide such future development.

Several key aspects of the plan involve access corridor level assets and services. Municipal civic services should be concentrated at the Shongweni and Mpumalanga town centres according to those node’s regional roles. Further services are located at Camperdown (Mkhambathini Local Municipality). The Cato Ridge Village is seen as an ideal location for much needed educational facilities (all levels of schooling are needed, as are tertiary institutions and artisan training facilities).

The role of the Valley of 1000 Hills and Shongweni tourism is acknowledged, as is the importance of maintaining and improving road access to those areas. The shared route into the KwaXimba area (Valley of 1000 Hills) through the Cato Ridge industrial precinct requires urban design interventions to improve the imageability of that access route.

Considerable amounts of industrial land are provided for in the plan (830 ha by 2030 on top of the existing 720 ha). Service and light industry (with small manufacturing concerns) are anticipated for the Hammarsdale area, as with certain parts of the Cato Ridge industrial precinct (taking into account the lack of such activities at Shongweni). A key factor is that the types of industry permitted north of the main ridge line are limited to non effluent-producing “dry” types of industry, notably logistics (note more detail in forthcoming LAP phase).”

The transportation recommendations for the OWC SFP are as follows:

For 2015 the N3 is left at three lanes per direction and that 335ha (12%) of additional

residential, 1170ha (70%) of small holding, 249ha (30%) of additional industrial,






Page 2

77ha (30%) of additional commercial and 200ha (30%) of additional mixed use are

developed;

That by 2015 an additional lane is added in each direction on the MR385 between the

Hammarsdale Interchange and Georgedale train station and that an additional lane is

added in each direction on the MR551 south of the N3 interchange for a distance of

500m in a southerly direction;

That between 2015 and 2020 the N3 is widened to four lanes in each direction

between the Peacevale and Hammarsdale interchanges as a minimum and that a new

interchange is constructed between the existing Hammarsdale and Cato Ridge

interchange;

For 2020, assuming the N3 has been widened and the interchange constructed, the

development can be 1083ha of additional residential, 1672ha (100%) of small

holdings, 333ha (40%) of industrial, 138ha (53%) of commercial and 420ha (60%) of

additional mixed use are developed; and

For 2030 the development can be 1083ha (40%) of additional residential, 1672ha

(100%) of small holding, 830ha (100%) of additional industrial and 258ha (100%) of

additional commercial and 655ha (100%) of the additional mixed use.

1.1.2 Cato Ridge Context

Cato Ridge is located midway between KZN‟s two largest economic hubs, Durban and Pietermaritzburg. Cato Ridge is also located along the N3, a key link between the Port of Durban and Gauteng.

Assessments have indicated that Cato Ridge has the last remaining vast tracts of flat land in the eThekwini region that are conducive for large scale industrial development. Couple this with the fact that there is a large population of unskilled and semi skilled labour with a high unemployment rate, that is located in close proximity to Cato Ridge. What you now have is a huge incentive to maximise this opportunity. However, prior to any investment and development, a thorough process of planning and assessment is required.

1.1.3 Purpose of Document

In light of the above, this document presents the following:

The proposed development details for the Cato Ridge Industrial Precinct and the Cato

Ridge Town Centre;

The approach and methodology used in undertaking the traffic and transportation

assessment; and

The results of the assessment together with the necessary road and transportation

interventions that are required to accommodate the proposed development.

1.2 Objectives

The objectives of the study are as follows:

Determine the amount of traffic that would be generated by the proposed

development;

Analyse the impact of the proposed developments on the transport network; and






Page 3

Determine the road and transportation interventions that are required to accommodate

the proposed development.

1.3 Approach

The approach for this part of the project is to use the modelling software SATURN to model the impact that the various developments will have on the network and to develop upgrades for the road network that will accommodate the traffic generated from the developments.






Page 4

2 Scope of Study

2.1 Study Area

The Cato Ridge study area was determined by eThekwini Development Planning Unit, the client, and the consulting team. The study area extends to include the Cato Ridge town centre and the Harrison Flats area. The study area takes a circle type shape and has an area of approximately 5932 ha.

The southern edge of the study area includes the Cato Ridge Golf Course, the western edge is the municipal boundary, the northern edge is the cliff edges north of the Harrison Flats and the eastern edge extends some 3.75 km and 7 km east of Eddie Hagan Drive and Cato Ridge town centre respectively.

Figure 1 contains an illustration of the study area.

2.2 Peak Hours Assessed

The proposed development consists largely of residential and industrial developments. Additionally, one of the outcomes of the study is to determine the access requirements. In this regard the following peak hour has been assessed:

The weekday AM Peak hour when the background traffic is the highest and the traffic

generated by the development is the highest. The morning peak hour currently occurs

between 06:30 and 07:30.

The AM peak only has been modelled as the Emme3 model, on which the base matrix is based, only has the AM peak modelled. It would be possible to reverse the matrix and use this as a PM peak model. But, it is felt that this would not be representative of the PM peak period and would give a false impression as to how the network would operate in the PM peak.

2.3 Assessment Years

Originally, to ensure compatibility between the SFP and the LAP, the phasing was going to be the same as that used in the SFP. The decision was then made, in consultation with the client, that the Phase 1 (2010 to 2015) in the SFP would be omitted and that instead there would be two phases. Phase 1 would be 2010 to 2020 and Phase 2 would be 2020 to 2030.

Since the process of planning and assessing the LAP began a number of planning applications have been submitted for various developments within the LAP area. Due to these applications the decision has been made to abandon the phased approach. Instead, the approach was to divide the area into a number of land packages associated with particular road improvements which would allow land to be released. These areas are referred to as Road Improvement Packages (RIPs). The proposed RIPs are as follows:

Existing road network – all those areas of land that can be developed with only the

construction of accesses to certain roads

RIP 1 – construction of links 4-3, 8-1, 10-1 and 10-2

RIP 2 – construction of link 3-1






Page 5

RIP 3 – construction of links 1-1 and 1-2



RIP 6 – construction of link 7-2 and 7-3.

If the new interchange and link road have not been constructed by RIP 6 they will be

constructed then.

Figure 2 shows the RIP‟s and the land released with each RIP.

In order to help with the costing of the infrastructure the area has been split into 13 zones and these are referred to as Infrastructure Cost Zones (ICZ‟s). These areas can be seen in Figure 3.

For the modelling the decision was made to use 2030 as the base year as this will provide a worst case scenario in terms of traffic.






Page 6

Figure 1: Cato Ridge Local Area Plan Boundary






Page 7

Figure 2: Road Improvement Packages and Associated Land Release






Page 8

Figure 3: Infrastructure Cost Zones






Page 9

3 Model Development

The traffic modelling was undertaken using SATURN Simulation software as agreed with the client. This software was deemed the most suitable for the nature of the study. This section presents a brief discussion on the development of the Cato Ridge SATURN Model.

SATURN is a modelling software developed in the UK. SATURN is a piece of software that assigns traffic to the network and then assesses the impact of the traffic on the road network. By assign, it is meant that the software itself assigns the traffic to the network determining the route that each vehicle will take to get from its origin to its destination. When the assignment takes place SATURN takes account of congestion on the network and routes vehicles through the network in such a way to minimise delays due to congestion.

3.1 Network Coding

Three different networks were created for this study and they are as follows:

Buffer network of the area with none of the junctions coded, this was used for the

calibration and validation of the model as well as to fine tune the traffic zones;

A „Do minimum‟ model where all intersections were modelled. This was carried out

to check the accuracy of the coding of the intersections; and

A number of models were created with various land parcels developed and the

required infrastructure in place.

The main concern with the model was ensuring that the appropriate level of roads was modelled. It was decided that gravel roads would be excluded from the model as these are mainly located at the edge of the study area where no development, or limited development, is planned.

The buffer network was created in order to calibrate and validate the SATURN model. This process is necessary as it ensures that the model is accurate in relation to the real world and will produce results that are realistic.

3.2 Zone Development

The eThekwini municipality currently consists of some 360 Traffic Zones based on the EMME/2 model currently used by the City. This zonal system is based on a higher order road network and is ideal for strategic assessments. However, in light of the fact that one of the outcomes of this study is access layouts for the developments, which would invariably include lower order roads, the eThekwini “360 Traffic Zones” was deemed to be to coarse for this stage of the project.

In light of the above it was decided that a more refined traffic zone system should be developed in order to achieve the objectives of the study. In this regard, the team developed a new traffic zone system for the study area that consists of 40 traffic “micro zones” (if the “360 Traffic Zones” basis were used then the study area would consist of only 6 traffic zones). The “micro zones” were developed using the following aspects as the basis:

The existing “360 Traffic Zones”. This was done to allow the “micro zone” to be

amalgamated into the “360 Traffic Zones” should need arise in future studies;






Page 10

The existing road network; and

The proposed spatial framework for Cato Ridge as contained in the OWC SFP.

The proposed “micro zones” for the study area are illustrated in Figure 4.

As well as the micro-zones, nine additional zones were added. These were the external zones and account for the trips that originate and/or end outside the immediate study area.

3.2.1 Zone Numbering System

The “micro zone” numbering system was kept simple to allow for easy use in future studies. The “micro zone” numbering system is made up of four or five numbers. The original numbering system for the micro-zones was straight forward as it entailed adding an additional number to the original zone number. This resulted in the first three digits being the original “360 traffic zone” number and the new digit being the micro-zone. The problem was that some of the new zone numbers became five digits and this will cause problems within SATURN. The result was that the zoning system had to be revised to ensure all zone numbers were four digits in length. The solution was to remove the first digit, if it was a five digit number, or replace the first digit with a zero if it was a four digit number. This was the final numbering system used. Table 1 shows the original “360 Traffic Zone” number and the final zone number used.






Page 11

Figure 4: Micro Traffic Zones for the SATURN Modelling






Page 12

Table 1: Original "360 Traffic Zone" Numbers and the Revised Micro-Zone Number

360 Traffic Zone Original Micro-Zone Number

Revised Four Digit Micro-Zone

Number

Additional Zones for Calibrating

300

3001 0001

3002 0002

308

3081 0081

3082 0082

3083 0083

309

3091 0091

3092 0092 9021

9202

3093 0093

3094 0094

3095 0095

3096 0096

3097 0097

3098 0098

30910 0910

30911 0911

30912 0912

30913 0913

30914 0914

30915 0915 9151

9152

9153

9154






Page 13

310

3101 0101

3102 0102

3103 0103

3104 0104

3105 0105

3106 0106

3107 0107

311

3111 0111

3112 0112

313

3131 0131

3132 0132 1321

1322

3133 0133

3134 0134

3135 0135

3136 0136

As can be seen, some of the micro-zones had to be further sub-divided in order to help with the model calibration. This splitting of zones for calibration purposes was carried out as the larger zones had multiple access points and SATURN will use the access points with the shortest distance. This resulted in a number of access points carrying all the traffic entering/leaving a zone, which with a large zone is unrealistic. Splitting the zones meant that each access point into the network now had its own zone and the proportional split for the zones was based on traffic counts, if possible.

3.3 Matrix Development

In light of the fact that a “micro zone” system was developed for the study area, a corresponding base matrix was required. The use of the “360 Traffic Zone” matrix contained in the EMME/3 model in its current form is not adequate as it is too coarse however it could be used as a basis for the “micro zone” matrix.

There are a number of approaches that can be taken to develop a more refined base matrix for the study area. The following three approaches were considered:

Roadside Interview Surveys;






Page 14

Number Plate Recording Survey; and

Traffic Counts at strategic locations.

In the end, the Traffic Counts at Strategic Locations was used to develop the base matrix. The following sections present a brief discussion on the methodology, the advantage and limitations of each of the three approaches.

3.3.1 Roadside Interview Survey

In this approach vehicles are intercepted on the road network and the drivers are asked to complete a questionnaire. The questionnaire covers the details of the driver‟s trip such as the trip origin, trip destination, mode, journey time and vehicle occupancy. The advantage of this approach is that good Origin-Destination and journey time information is obtained which would give a better understanding of trip distribution and trip lengths. The disadvantage of this approach is that the traffic police are required to assist in the vehicle intercept and thus potential cost implications.

3.3.2 Number Plate Recording Survey

In this approach, the number plates of a sample of vehicles are recorded at strategic locations on the road network. The number plates are then matched to determine the potential Origin and Destination of the trip. The advantage of this approach is that a good indication is obtained on the vehicle Origin-Destination pattern. The disadvantage is that this approach takes a long time to carry out.

3.3.3 Traffic Counts at Strategic Locations

In this approach traffic counts are undertaken at strategic locations. The traffic count sites were located at the access points to the “micro zones”, at points where no or little “through” trips take place. This is important in order to determine the number of trip ends for each “micro zone”. The traffic count locations are illustrated in Figure 5.

The advantage of this approach is that the results of the assessment are obtained relatively quickly and a more accurate number of trip ends are estimated. The disadvantage of this approach is that the trip distribution is not known. In this regard the 2010 matrix from the EMME/3 was used to determine the trip distribution.

3.3.4 AM Peak Hour Matrix

As indicated in Section 3.3.3, traffic counts were undertaken at strategic locations to determine the number of trip ends to each “micro zone”. These counts were undertaken between 06:00 and 09:00 and it was determined that the peak hour occurs between 06:30 and 07:30. The 2010 matrix from the EMME/3 was then used to determine the trip distribution. The AM peak hour matrix can be found in Appendix A.






Page 15

Figure 5: Additional Traffic Counts for the SATURN Modelling






Page 16

3.4 Calibration and Validation

As part of the modelling process it is important to ensure that the model is calibrated and validated by comparing modelled flows with observed flows. Carrying out this process ensures that the model is modelling a situation that is close to reality.

This model has been calibrated and validated and the results show that the model reaches the criteria laid out in Great Britain‟s Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB)

1.

For more details on the calibration and validation of the model please see the report “0005 Validation and Calibration Report”.

1 Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Volume 12 Traffic Appraisal of Road Schemes, Section 2

Part 1; Traffic Appraisal in Urban Areas.






Page 17

4 Proposed Development

The strategic modelling carried out earlier in the project provided the amount of development that could be accommodated with the existing road network and with an upgraded strategic road network. The modelling also provided information on where this development would be located. Table 2 shows the amount of development that could be accommodated within the CR LAP study area and the amount that could be accommodated in the OWC. These are cumulative totals so the total in 2030 will include the area developed in 2020 and 2015.

Table 2: Land Uses and Their Split Between CR LAP and OWC Area

Year Land Use

CR LAP OWC Total

Ha GLA (m2)

Ha GLA (m2)

Ha GLA (m2)

2010

Residential 17 311 0 0 17 311

Industrial 128 363,865 0 0 128 363,865


20 12,200 0 0 20 12,200

2015

Residential 30 552 305 5579 335 6131

Industrial 199 605,578 10 31,873 209 637,451


20 12,672 257 156,297 277 168,969

2020

Residential 89 1189 994 18,630 1083 19,819

Industrial 236 710,955 97 304,695 333 1,015,650


41 23,827 517 316,553 558 340,380

2030

Residential 89 1189 994 18,630 1083 19,819

Industrial 385 1,174,250 445 1,357,250 830 2,531,500


67 139,233 846 417,698 913 556,931

4.1 Development Description

The Local Area Plan (LAP) consists of two distinctive areas, the industrial precinct and Cato Ridge village itself. The industrial precinct will consist of a number of areas where industrial development will occur and will be restricted to specific types in order to reduce the environmental impact in this area. The village plan will consist of a mix of residential, commercial and facility.






Page 18

Table 3 below shows the land uses split between the two phases.

As stated in Section 2.3 the phasing will no longer be split into two time periods. Instead the land has been divided into Infrastructure Cost Zones for reporting and costing purposes.

Table 3: Land Uses per Infrastructure Cost Zone

ICZ Industrial (GLA m

2)


Commercial / Business (GLA m

2)

Facility (GLA m

2)

Total

No. of units GLA (m2)

1 212,463 0 0 0 0 212,463

2 299,419 0 0 0 0 299,419

3 105,650 0 0 0 0 105,650

4 163,100 0 0 0 0 163,100

5 20,368 0 0 0 0 20,368

6 69,081 0 0 0 0 69,081

7 75,756 0 0 0 0 75,756

8 242,591 102 0 0 102 242,591

9 0 0 0 6352 0 6532

10 0 538 16,995 6537 538 23,532

13 61,915 0 0 0 0 61,915

Total 1,250,344 640 16,995 12,889 640 1,280,228

Although no phasing in relation to years is being used, there are a number of RIP‟s areas. In association with each of these is an area of land that can be released. Table 4 shows the amount of land released with each phase of the road infrastructure.






Page 19

Table 4: Road Improvement Packages and Associated Land Release

Road Improvement Package

ICZ Industrial (GLA m

2)


Commercial/Business (GLA m

2)

Facility (GLA m

2)

Existing 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10,

13 408,002 641 16,995 12,889

RIP 1 4, 8 191,224

RIP 2 3 100,824

RIP 3 1 212,463

RIP 4 2, 7 148,835

RIP 5 7 49,986

RIP 6 7 139,010

Total 1,250,344 641 16,995 12,889

As can be seen, in some instances land to be released from the same ICZ can occur in different RIP‟s. This is due to the size of the ICZ‟s and that some instances more than one new link passes through the zone.

The original strategic modelling used a specific Floor to Area Ratio (FAR) for the industrial and commercial / mixed use land uses. Since the strategic modelling has been carried out the environmental constraints of the area have come to light and the decision has been made to alter the FAR for the industrial component.

The reason for the change in FAR is that this area is environmentally important and sensitive so there is a balancing act between providing industrial development and minimising the environmental impact. Reducing the FAR‟s results in a much greater plot size for the same Gross Leasable Area (GLA). Using the original FAR of 0.5, a 100ha plot would provide 305,000m

2 GLA, whereas, with a FAR of

0.25 a plot of 200ha would be required to provide the same 305,000m2.

Three different FAR values were used and these are as follows:

Sites with existing industrial land use will have a FAR of 0.5;

Sites where the environment has been degraded will have a FAR of 0.35; and

Environmentally pristine sites will have a FAR of 0.25.

4.1.1 Industrial Land Use

When carrying out this exercise it became apparent that it would not be possible to rigorously recreate the GLA figure suggested by the strategic modelling. The reason for this is that a parcel of land cannot be divided in half just to ensure that the GLA is reached as this would cause arguments with the land owner. Because of this it was decided that a figure greater than the figure from the strategic modelling would be allowable.






Page 20

As the land uses are gross areas, no account has been taken for road reserve, servitudes etc or for the extent of the area that is actually developable. In order to calculate the area available for development a number of assumptions have been made and these are as follows:

That 40% of the gross area will be consumed by roads, servitudes and will be

undevelopable etc.

Table 5: Additional Industrial Land Uses and Their Final GLA

FAR Gross Area

(ha) Roads, servitudes

etc (ha) Net Area

(ha) GLA (m

2)

0.5 72 28 44 219,600

0.35 261 102 159 557,235

0.25 311 121 190 474,275

4.2 Land Use Distribution

Although SATURN will assign and distribute the traffic around the road network, the land use GLA‟s themselves need to be distributed around the zones. This then allows the number of trips arriving and departing from each zone to be calculated.

Table 6 shows the proportion of each land use assigned to each of the micro-zones in the study area, this is for the ultimate land use in 2030.




F:\PROJECTS - TRANSPORTATION\TRANSPORTATION - REAL JOBS\182059 - OUTER WEST CORRIDOR STUDY AND CR LAP\3 REPORTS\ISSUED\CR LAP REV F\0013CR LAP TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT ISSUE REV F.DOCX

Page 21

Table 6: The Proportion of Land Use per Traffic Zone

Zone

Land Use

Residential Industrial Commercial Facility

Proportion (%) No. Of

Dwellings Proportion (%) GLA (m

2) Proportion (%) GLA (m

2) Proportion (%) GLA (m

2)

0001

0002 102

0081 6353

0082

0083

0091 20,368

0093 453

0094 662

0095 85 3918

0096

0097 2400 785





Page 22

0098 2767

0099 3123

0101 70,519

0102 198,465

0103 58,618

0104 53,152

0105 251,355

0106 49,986

0107 25,770

0111

0112

0131 124,796

0133 203,700

0134 42,206

0135 4826





Page 23

0136 5939

0910

0911 2629

0912 1309

0913

0914

1321 4951

1322 72,550

9151

9152

9153

9154

9201 27,999

9202 41,083

Total 640 1,250,344 16,995 12,889






Page 24

4.3 Trip Generation

The normal method of calculating the number of trips generated by a development would be to use the South African Trip Generation Rate Manual (SATGRM) to obtain the trip rate for each land use. This trip rate would then be multiplied by the GLA or the number of dwellings.

The EMME/3 model has instead used employment densities for the calculation of trips. The employment densities are based on research carried out at various locations within eThekwini to determine the link between the number of employers, the size of development and the number of trips generated. The trip rates from the EMME/3 model are as follows:

Commercial employment – 250 persons / ha; and

Industrial employment – 150 persons / ha.

For the residential component the model is based on population instead, so for the SATURN model residential will be based on trip rates from the SATGRM.

The final trip rates to be used are as follows:

Industrial – 150 persons / ha;

Commercial – 250 persons / ha;

Facility – 250 persons / ha; and

Residential – 1.1 trips / dwelling.

The trip rates are then used to generate the number of trips likely to be produced for the land uses. Table 7 shows the number of trips generated for the various land uses.

The trips using the EMME/3 trip rates are person trips and are for a two hour period so a factor needs to be applied to the trips to reduce the trips to a one hour period and then the modal splits need to be applied in order to calculate the number of vehicles arriving and departing.

The process used is as follows:

Divide the GLA by 10,000 to calculate the GLA in hectares;

Multiply the GLA (in hectares) by the trip rate to give the maximum number of

employees;

Apply a factor of 0.6 to calculate the number of actual person trips;

Multiply this by the modal split factor, for public transport this is 55% and for private

vehicles this is 45%;

This then needs to be multiplied by 0.5 to reduce the trips from a two hour period to a

one hour period;

The public transport trips then need to be divided by 14, MBT occupancy, to

calculate the number of MBT trips generated; and

The private vehicle trips then need to be divided by 1.2, average vehicle occupancy,

to calculate the number of private vehicle trips generated.






Page 25

The modal splits used for calculating the number of trips do not include Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), so this needs to be taken into consideration. An analysis of the traffic counts showed that the average proportion of HGVs was six percent, so for the industrial land use an additional six per cent was added to account for HGVs. In SATURN the numbers of vehicles are converted into Passenger Car Units (PCUs), so for HGVs each vehicle is multiplied by four to convert it into its PCU equivalent.

Table 7: Trips Generated for the AM Peak Based on the EMME/3 Model Trip Rates

Area / No.

Of Dwellings

Trip Rate

Total

In / Out Split AM Peak

In Out In Out

Industrial 1,250,344 150 2915 75% 25% 2186 729

Residential 641 1.1 443 25% 75% 111 332

Commercial 16,995 250 58 75% 25% 43 14

Facility 12,889 250 44 75% 25% 33 11

Total 1,220,059 3460 2373 1086

Using the EMME/3 trip rates provided a base for the number of trips created but, the V/C ratio on the N3 was less than that from the EMME/3 model. As a result of this the decision was made to load additional trips onto the model until the V/C ratio on the N3 was similar to that experienced in the EMME/3 model. It was important to ensure that the network was not over loaded so much that the remaining intersections and roads were not able to cope with the traffic. The final V/C ratio on the N3 was 81% with four lanes per direction on the N3. This is not as high as the V/C ratio achieved in the EMME/3 model (85%) due to the requirement to ensure that the rest of the network is able to operate.

The total number of trips was 17,847. From this 6080 trips were removed to account for the background traffic. This resulted in 11,767 trips coming from the development. From this the number of trips generated by commercial (57), facility (44) and residential (705) are removed. This results in 10,960 trips being generated by the industrial component.

The industrial component has a GLA of 1,88,427m2. If the calculation used for

calculating the number of trips is reversed then the resultant trip rate is 0.922 trips per 100m

2. The South African Trip Generation Rate Manual suggests that for an

industrial area, such as this at Cato Ridge, a trip rate of 0.9 trips per 100m2

should be used.

The final number of trips used in the SATURN model can be found in Table 8






Page 26

Table 8: Revised Number of Trips After Loading the Network with Additional Trips

Land Use Inbound Trips Outbound Trips Total

Industrial 8328 2773 11,101

Residential 176 529 705

Commercial / Business 43 14 57

Facility 33 11 44

Total 8580 3327 11,907






Page 27

5 Road Infrastructure

5.1 Proposed Scheme

5.1.1 Proposed Scheme Infrastructure

For each phase of development road infrastructure will need to be constructed as a large proportion of the industrial development will be located on land undeveloped with no existing infrastructure in place.

This section highlights the new infrastructure required in order to allow these areas of land to be developed.

When determining the new road infrastructure required within the CR LAP boundary it was necessary to determine the road hierarchy for the area. This showed that Eddie Hagan Drive and the R103 are mobility routes and it is necessary to ensure that the number of intersections on these are kept to a minimum to maintain mobility.

In order to ensure this occurs a number of new roads are to be constructed to provide access to the development but keep the number of new intersections on the R103 and Eddie Hagan Drive to a minimum. Access to the developments will be from these link roads and there will be direct access for any development off of the R103 or Eddie Hagan Drive.

Table 9 below provides the new link roads and their associated land phase. Figure 6 shows these in a spatial context.

Table 9: Infrastructure Cost Zones and Associated Road Infrastructure for the Proposed Scheme

Infrastructure Cost Zones

Link Ref

Description Number of Lanes Approximate

Length (one-way)

1

1-1 Link road from 94044TRK

to MR423 2 2489

1-2 Link road from Eddie

Hagan Drive to 94044TRK

2 924

2

2-1 Link road from 65301TRK

to Drakensberg Street 2 1249

2-2 Upgrade of 65301TRK for

610m 2 610

3 3-1 Link road from Eddie

Hagan Drive to 65301TRK

2 1541

4 4-1 Link road from R103 to

link road 7-2 4 128






Page 28

4-2

Widening of Eddie Hagan Drive to two lanes per

direction between R103 and 65301TRK

4 1689

4-3 Link road from Safal Steel

to Assmang 2 1921

7

7-1 New N3 interchange and

associated on and off slips 1

7-2 Link road between N3 and

R103 2 2213

7-3 Industrial area loop road

from link 7-2 2 1636

7-4 Link road from R103 to

new link 7-2 2 625

8 8-1 Road south from R103 2 497

10

10-1 Link road from School

Road to Selby Road 2 223

10-2 Link road from Mazeppa Road to Old Georgedale

Road 2 653

Misc

Widening of the N3 to four lanes per direction

between the Peacevale and Cato Ridge Interchanges

8 38,285 (both directions)

Widening of the MR385/R103 to two lanes per direction between the

Old Georgedale Road intersection and eastbound

on slip

4 1506

Widening of the R103to two lanes per direction

between the eastbound on-slip and Eddie Hagan

Drive

4 3640

Widening of the MR385/R103 to two lanes

per direction at the Hammarsdale Interchange

4 537

The intersection strategy is that all intersections on Eddie Hagan Drive and the new link road between the N3 and R103 will be signalised due to the high traffic flows and the nature of this traffic. All intersections on the new link roads and those accesses off the link roads will be priority controlled.






Page 29

As well as the industrial development situated north of the R103, residential, commercial and facility development will take place in Cato Ridge village. Two additional roads are planned to help with the movement of vehicles around the village.

It is proposed that the new interchange be constructed just to the east of the existing Engen garage and that the new interchange will make use of the existing on and off slips. In the Phase 2 scenario the interchange has been constructed at this point because if it is located between the BP and Engen garages the on and off slips for the garages and new interchange would be to closely spaced. For more details on the location and design of the new interchange please see “Route Location Investigation for a Proposed Interchange and Link Road Linking N3/R103 and Eddie Hagan Road – Cato Ridge

2. It should be noted that at this is

not a study into the viability or the location of a new interchange. An additional study will be required looking at location and assessing the cost benefit of constructing the interchange.

Any alterations required to existing roads or intersections will be dealt with in Section 7.

2 Route Location Investigation for a Proposed Interchange and Link Road Linking N3/R103 and

Eddie Hagan Road – Cato Ridge Desk Top Feasibility Screening Final Draft, August 2007, Arcus

Gibb






Page 30

Figure 6: Proposed Road Infrastructure Plan






Page 31

5.1.2 Proposed Scheme Infrastructure Costs

As part of the project an estimate of the cost of providing this infrastructure needs to be provided in order to allow the municipality make an assessment on the benefits of developing the area. In order to calculate the costs a number of assumptions need to be made with regards to lane widths, sidewalk widths etc. The assumptions made are listed below:

Lane widths of 3m, except for the N3 which will be 3.5m;

Sidewalk Width 2m;

Each new road will consist of two lanes, except for the on and off-slips which will

consists of one lane;

Each road will have a sidewalk each side, except for the on and off-slips which will

have none;

Total width will be 10m;

The on and off-slips will have a total width of 5m (3m for the lane and a 1m shoulder

each side);

The bridge over the N3 will be one lane per direction with a 1m shoulder each side;

The cost of the roads will be R1300 per m²; and

For bridges the cost will be R25,000 per m².

Table 10 shows the specification and cost for the each of the new roads planned for Phase 1.

Table 10: Specification and Cost for Each of the New Roads Planned for the Proposed Scheme

Link ICZ Total Width

(m)

Length (m)

Area (m

2)

Cost (R) (inc VAT)

Responsibility

1-1 1 10 2489 24890 R36,886,980

Developer / ETA

1-2 1 10 924 9240 R13,693,680 Developer /

ETA

Sub-Total R50,580,660

2-1 2 10 1249 12490 R18,510,180 Developer /

ETA

2-2 2 10 610 6100 R9,040,200 Developer /

ETA


3-1 3 10 1541 15410 R22,837,620 Developer /

ETA

4-1 4 10 128 1280 R3,035,136 Developer /






Page 32

ETA

4-2 4 16 542 8672 R40,049,568 Developer /

ETA

4-3 4 10 1921 19210 R28,469,220 Developer /

ETA


7-1 (Interchange Bridge)

7 15 120 1800 R51,300,000 SANRAL

7-1 (westbound on-slip)

7 5 318 1590 R2,718,900 SANRAL

7-1 (westbound off-slip)

7 5 878 4390 R3,060,900 SANRAL

7-1 (eastbound on-slip)

7 5 609 3045 R5,206,950 SANRAL

7-1 (eastbound off-slip)

7 5 879 4395 R7,515450 SANRAL

7-1 7 10 106 1060 R1,812,600 SANRAL

Interchange Sub-Total

R71,614,800

7-2 7 10 2213 22130 R32,796,660 ETA

7-3 7 10 1636 16360 R24,245,520 Developer /

ETA

7-4 7 10 625 6250 R9,262,500 Developer /

ETA


8-1 8 10 497 4970 R7,365,540 Developer /

ETA

10-1 10 10 223 2230 R3,304,860 Developer /

ETA

10-2 10 10 259 2590 R9,677,460 Developer /

ETA


N3 Widening 7 13442 94,094 R229,135,725 SANRAL

R103 widening (Old Georgedale Road to

R26,387,352 ETA






Page 33

on-slip)

R103 Widening (eastbound on-slip to Eddie Hagan Drive)

R32,366,880 ETA

R103 Widening (Hammarsdale Interchange)

R15,312,024 ETA

Signalised Intersections

R5,586,000 SANRAL /

ETA / Developer

Localised widening R2,280,000 ETA

Total R641,857,905

As can be seen the total construction cost for all of the road infrastructure for the Proposed scheme is R641,857,905. This does not include any design fees or purchase of the land for constructing these roads. The general consensus is that design fees are approximately 10% of the construction fees and purchase of land is approximately one per cent of design fees.

The total cost of the road infrastructure, including VAT, is R641,857,905. This is broken down as follows, all costs include VAT:

Industrial area - R246,192,804;

Cato Ridge village – R12,982,320;

Widening of N3 – R229,135,725

Widening of R103 – R74,066,256; and

Interchange and ramps – R71,614,800;

Signals R5,586,000; and

Localised intersection widening – R2,280,000

Table 11 provides a summary of cost per IFC.






Page 34

Table 11: Summary of Infrastructure Costs per Infrastructure Cost Zone

Infrastructure Cost Zone Cost

1 R50,580,660

2 R27,550,380

3 R22,837,620

4 R71,553,924

5 NA

6 NA

7 R137,919,480

8 R7,365,540

9 R61,917,960

10 R12,982,320

N3 Widening R229,135,725

R103 Widening R74,066,256

Signals R5,586,000

Localised Intersection Widening R2,280,000

Total R641,857,905






Page 35

6 Traffic Analysis

6.1 Methodology

As mentioned earlier the phasing used in the Outer West Corridor study has been abandoned and instead a more flexible approach has been taken in order to facilitate development in the area. This approach looks at the order in which the new infrastructure should be constructed and this then provides a pattern for the release of land. The infrastructure has been grouped into packages and these are referred to as Road Infrastructure Packages (RIP). The decision was made that those areas with existing rights would be developed first and then those without would then be developed. The RIP‟s would be as follows:

RIP 1 – Link 4-3 and 8-1 providing access off of the R103 and links 10-1 and 10-2 in

Cato Ridge village;

RIP 2 – Link 3-1 off of Eddie Hagan Drive;



RIP 5 – Link 7-4 off of the R103;

RIP 6 – Link 7-3; and

The new interchange and link road will be constructed when required, if it has not

been constructed by RIP 6 it will be constructed then.

An important aspect of the modelling is to determine when the major road infrastructure upgrades are required. This will be in relation to when a certain GLA threshold has been reached. The major road infrastructure upgrades are the new interchange and upgrading of the N3 and R103.

After each phase was modelled an examination of the roads and intersections based on the V/C ratio would be undertaken. This would ensure that they are all operating within capacity. If they are not then upgrades will be tested to ensure that they can be modified to operate within capacity. During the modelling a point will be reached when upgrades to the N3, R103 and the new interchange and link road will be required. This will be the GLA threshold point at which these are required in order for development to continue.

6.2 Base Year Model

The base year model was a buffer network with no intersections modelled. This allowed the model to be calibrated and validated to ensure a realistic model. These were then placed into the “do minimum” model to ensure that the existing intersections were modelled correctly.

6.2.1 N3 Toll Road

A request from ETA was that the impact of a change in the toll structure of the N3, in the vicinity of Cato Ridge, should be modelled to determine the affect this would have on traffic.






Page 36

Tolling an existing road would only be done to fund the upgrading of that section of the route comprising the substantial rehabilitation of the pavement to extend its service life and/or the expansion of the road in order to provide additional capacity as well as improving the safety of operations. Such improvements would provide additional benefits to the road user. These benefits would effectively attract traffic onto the existing road from alternative routes.

In order to fund the rehabilitation and/or expansion for the route as well as the future annual and periodic maintenance and expansion of the route, the route can be tolled. Toll levels are usually set as a proportion of the benefits derived from the road improvements when compared to using the alternative routes, usually about 85% of the future benefits. As a result of implementing tolls, it can be expected that traffic will re-route from the tolled route onto the alternative route. The net attraction to the tolled road will depend on the toll rate (cost of the tolls) and the availability and accessibility of the alternative routes, i.e. the ease of avoiding the toll points. Therefore the location of toll plazas is an important consideration. The road pavement condition, capacity and operating condition of and along the alternative route and impact of additional traffic on the alternative route is another factor for consideration, i.e. town sand developments that the alternative route passes through, this may pose environmental and social impacts that require consideration.

The South African National Roads Agency Limited (SANRAL) were contacted with regards to their options on tolling of the N3. At the present they are considering two options, but no final decision has been made as to which option will be implemented.

The commonality between both options is that the Marianhill Toll plaza will remain in-situ; this has been confirmed by SANRAL. The two options are as follows:

Option one – increase the toll fee at Marianhill Plaza; and

Option two – new toll plazas at Shongweni north facing ramps, M13 on/off ramps

and a mainline toll at Camperdown.

As no decision has been made by SANRAL with regards to the scenario that will be taken forwards any decision by Arup to model a particular scenario would be pre-empting SANRAL‟s decision.

If Option One is implemented the main impact of this would be an increase in traffic on the M13 towards Durban as people use this alternative route to avoid paying the increased toll fee. The second impact of this option would be to see a major negative impact on the N3 and roads in the vicinity of Cato Ridge.

For Option Two the main result of the additional toll plazas would be to reduce the attractiveness of the area to companies as they would be reluctant to relocate knowing that they would have to pay the toll fee, especially if a toll plaza is constructed in the vicinity of Camperdown. With the closeness of Camperdown to Cato Ridge then the construction of a toll plaza could result in companies locating to an area nearer to Camperdown so they would not have to pay the toll fee rather than locating in Cato Ridge where they would have to pay the fee. The impact of this could be a decrease in traffic on the N3 and M13 and a resulting increase in traffic on the R103 and the R602. Although there might be a movement of vehicles to the R103, this is a longer and slower route to Durban






Page 37

than the N3 so this could balance out the cost of the toll and so result in only a minor change in traffic flows on the N3 and M13.






Page 38

7 Results

As stated above, a model was run for each phase with the required infrastructure in place for the previous phase. Once this had been modelled an analysis was carried out to ensure that none of the intersections or links were over capacity. If they were then upgrades were made to these to ensure they operated within capacity.

7.1 Existing Road network

The results from the SATURN modelling show that the majority of the links have a V/C ratio of less than 70%. This shows that these links are operating within capacity. A V/C ratio of 90% or higher shows that that link has capacity issues.

The modelling has shown that the bridge at the Hammarsdale IC has a high V/C ratio at 82% indicating that it is close to having capacity issues. Figure 7 below shows the V/C ratios of the Hammarsdale IC.

Figure 7: V/C Ratio for Hammarsdale Interchange with the Existing Road Network

The modelling also showed that the northbound section of the MR385 to the Cato Ridge IC has high V/C ratios as well. This can be seen in Figure 8 below.






Page 39

Figure 8: V/C Ratio for Cato Ridge Village, the MR385 and R103 with the Existing Road Network

Other areas with high V/C ratios are the R103 and the southern section of Eddie Hagan Drive.

The high V/C ratios on all of these suggest that upgrades to these will be required in order to cope with the additional traffic generated by the development.

7.2 Road Improvement Package One – Construction of Links 4-3, 8-1, 10-1 and 10-2

The first run of this model was carried out with the existing road network with the addition of the following links:

Link 4-3;

Link 8-1;

Link 10-1; and

Link 10-2.

This phase also included signalisation of the Eddie Hagan Drive/94042TRK

intersection

An examination of this showed that the bridge at the Hammarsdale IC was over capacity with a V/C ratio of 103%. An analysis of the turning V/C ratios showed that the southbound on and off-slip had capacity issues for those travelling westbound over the bridge. The high V/C ratios show that the bridge and the intersection do not have enough capacity to cope with the predicted traffic flows. Both of these issues can be seen in Figure 9 below.






Page 40

Figure 9: V/C Ratio for Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1

As with the Existing road model, this model shows that the MR385 at the Cato Ridge IC is close to capacity with a V/C ratio of 85% northbound and that the R103 eastbound towards Eddie Hagan Drive has maximum V/C ratio of 79% on approach to the Dunbar Drive intersection. Figure 10

Figure 10: V/C Ratio for Cato Ridge Village and R103 for RIP 1






Page 41

In order to provide more capacity at the Hammarsdale IC the bridge will require widening to two lanes and the southbound on and off-slip intersection will require signalisation. In order to ensure consistency in the operation of the intersections at the interchange the northbound on and off-slip will be signalised as well.

The result of both of these upgrades is to increase the capacity at the interchange and thus reduce the V/C ratios. The V/C ratio for the bridge has decreased to 46% and the V/C for the turning movements as decreased as well. The results can be seen in Figure 11.

Figure 11: V/C Ratio for an Upgraded Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1

The new link road between the R103 and Eddie Hagan Drive helps to reduce the impact of development on Eddie Hagan Drive. The new link road acts as an alternative route for those travelling from the west to Eddie Hagan Drive. This can be seen in Figure 12.






Page 42

Figure 12: V/C Ratios for Eddie Hagan Drive and the New Link Road in RIP 1

The remaining links and intersections are operating within capacity with the traffic generated by the Phase 1 development.

7.3 Road Improvement Package Two – Link 3-1

The modelling was undertaken with the final road network layout from the RIP 1 modelling with the addition of Link 3-1. RIP 2 also sees the signalisation of the Eddie Hagan Drive/R103 and Eddie Hagan Drive/Link 3-1 intersections.

The SATURN modelling showed that the MR385 northbound towards the Cato Ridge IC is close to capacity and that any additional traffic will require widening of this section of road. The R103 is also close to capacity in this scenario as well. Both of these sections of road can be seen in Figure 13 below.






Page 43

Figure 13: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge Village and the R103 for RIP 2

The SATURN model shows that the remaining roads and intersections have V/C ratios of less than 70% and so are operating within capacity.

7.4 Road Improvement Package Three – Links 1-1 and 1-2

RIP Three was first modelled with the road network from RIP 2 with the addition of Link 1-1 off of Eddie Hagan Drive. This will also include signalisation of the following intersections:

Eddie Hagan Drive/65301TRK; and

Eddie Hagan Drive/Drakensberg Street.

The model showed a number of problem areas where the V/C was 90% or greater indicating that these roads and intersections are unable to cope with the traffic. The areas which are over capacity are as follows:

Hammarsdale Interchange, in particular the bridge over the N3 (Figure 14)

R103 eastbound towards Eddie Hagan Drive (Figure 15);

MR385 northbound towards the Cato Ridge IC and the bridge over the N3 (Figure

16);

R103 westbound towards Cato Ridge from Eddie Hagan Drive (Figure 16);

Dunbar/R103 intersection (Figure 16).

The results from the modelling suggest at a number of major road infrastructure upgrades are required at this point in order for the road infrastructure to cope with the predicted flows.






Page 44

Figure 14: V/C Ratios for the Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 3







Page 45

Figure 16: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge Village for RIP 3

A number of iterations were run with the various road infrastructure upgrades in place until all the affected links were operating within capacity.

The first iteration had a new interchange on the N3 to help alleviate the congestion on the R103. This worked to a degree, but the congestion on the R103 towards Eddie Hagan Drive was not relieved. The next revision widened the N3 to four lanes per direction. This reduced the congestion on the N3 and in combination with the new interchange became a more attractive route to Eddie Hagan Drive for those from Pietermaritzburg direction. The result of this to reduce the number of vehicles passing through the Eddie Hagan Drive/R102 intersection which then results in a decrease in the V/C for those travelling westbound towards Eddie Hagan Drive.

With the N3 and R103 working at capacity the next iteration looked at the MR385 and Cato Ridge interchange.

The final run had the following road infrastructure improvements in place:

New interchange on the N3;

Widening of the N3 to four lanes per direction between the Peacevale and Cato Ridge

interchanges;

Upgrade of the Cato Ridge interchange to signals and widening of the MR385/R103

between the Old Georgedale Road intersection and the eastbound on-slip;

Widening of Eddie Hagan Drive to two lanes per direction between the R103 and

65301TRK; and







Page 46

The result of all of these improvements is that the V/C ratios at all of these points falls and they are all operating within capacity with these upgrades. The result of the upgrades can be seen in Figure 17, Figure 18, Figure 19 and Figure 20.

Figure 17: V/C Ratios for Hammarsdale Interchange Following Various Upgrades for RIP 3







Page 47

Figure 19: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge with the Upgraded Interchange and MR385 for RIP 3

Figure 20: V/C Ratios for the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 3

The modelling shows that all other roads and intersections in the area are operating within capacity.






Page 48

7.5 Road Improvement Package Four – Link 2-1

For RIP Four the network used will be as the final road network from RIP 3 with the addition of Link 2-1 between 65301TRK and Drakensberg Street

The SATURN modelling for RIP 4 shows that the majority of intersections and roads are operating within capacity. Those that were overcapacity in RIP 3 are operating within capacity with the upgrades included.

The one section of road that could be of concern is the R103 between Dunbar Drive and Eddie Hagan Drive as this is showing a maximum V/C ratio of 78%, thus indicating that upgrades maybe required if development continues. Figure 21 shows this section of the R103.


The modelling shows that the new roads providing access to the Eddie Hagan Drive developments are well utilised, in particular the link from the R103 to Eddie Hagan Drive. This can be seen in Figure 22






Page 49

Figure 22: V/C Ratios for Eddie Hagan Drive for RIP 4

The new interchange and link road help to relieve pressure on the R103 and also provides access to a section of land close to the intersection of the new link road and R103.

7.6 Phase Five – Link 7-4

For RIP 5 the road network modelled will be that from RIP 4 plus the addition of Link 7-4 from the R103 to the new link road. This will also require the construction of a new signalised intersection on the link road.

The SATURN modelling shows that none of the roads or intersections are over capacity with the additional traffic from the developments.

The modelling does show an increase in the V/C ratio on the R103 between Dunbar Drive and Eddie Hagan Drive. The maximum V/C ratio on this section of the R103 is 81% indicating that it is still operating within capacity, but that it will be close to capacity if more development is added and no upgrades are carried out. This can be seen in Figure 23.






Page 50


The remaining roads and intersections are all operating within capacity and showing no capacity issues.

7.7 Road Improvement Package Six – Link 7-3, Total Development

For RIP 6 the road network will be that from RIP 5 with the addition of link 7-3, which is the loop road on the new link road. This will also see the upgrading of the two intersections on the link road to four arms.

With this road in place the full industrial development of 1,188,427m2 is released.

The results of the modelling show that the R103 between Dunbar Drive and Eddie Hagan will be close to capacity with all the development with a maximum V/C ratio of 86%. Although this is less than the 90% threshold it would be advisable to upgrade this section of the R103 to two lanes per direction in order reduce the impact of any accidents or an unusually high traffic volume. Figure 24 shows this section of the R103.






Page 51


The modelling also shows that the MR385 northbound towards the Cato Ridge IC is close to capacity with a maximum V/C ratio of 86%. Although this is close to capacity the section is very short, only a distance of 70m and the links either side have a lower V/C ratio. Figure 25 shows this.

Figure 25: V/C Ratios for the MR385 for RIP 6

To simulate the impact of upgrading this section of the R103 the model has been run with this section of the R103. The result of this can be seen in Figure 26.






Page 52

Carrying out this upgrade ensures that if there are increases in traffic on a particular day then the road will be able to cope with the number of vehicles, also the modelling was showing issues with capacity at the R103/Eddie Hagan Drive intersection.


The model shows that a number of vehicles are using the new interchange and link road to access the development located between the N3 and R103 from both the Pietermaritzburg and Durban directions. A Select Link Analysis (SLA) on the section between the new interchange and links 7-4 and 7-3 show that vehicles from both directions are using this new interchange to access the industrial development. The SLA shows that more vehicles are using this to depart from the area than to travel to the area as 320 vehicles are travelling north on the link road and 423 are travelling south. The SLA also shows a number of vehicles using Link 7-4 to access the new interchange. All of these can be seen in Figure 27.






Page 53

Figure 27: Select Link Analysis for the New Link Road

The majority of vehicles are using the new interchange and link road to access the development between the N3 and R103, although 100 vehicles are accessing Eddie Hagan Drive via this route. A further SLA on Eddie Hagan Drive shows that these 100 vehicles are from the Pietermaritzburg direction and that those travelling to Eddie Hagan Drive from Durban are still using the R103. This can be seen in Figure 28






Page 54

Figure 28: Select Link Analysis Showing the Route Vehicles Take to Eddie Hagan Drive

7.8 Introduction of the Interchange at an Earlier Phase

As part of the modelling it was requested by ETA that the construction of the new interchange at an earlier point should be considered to determine the impact that this would have on the road network. Currently it is envisioned that the new interchange is constructed as part of RIP 3 as by the time all the development is constructed for RIP 3 the new interchange will be required. Instead in this section the impact of introducing the new interchange in RIP 1 and RIP 2 is considered.

7.8.1 Road Improvement Package One

For RIP 1 the new interchange was added to the original model before any road improvements, other than those new links in RIP 1, were added. This was carried out to determine if the addition of the new interchange would remove the need for these additional upgrades.

Part of the work required for the new interchange and link road is the upgrade of the Eddie Hagan Drive/R103 intersection to signal controls.






Page 55

Figure 29: V/C Ratios for Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1 with the New Interchange and Link Road

As can be seen from Figure 29 above, even with the new interchange and new road in situ, the Hammarsdale interchange is still over capacity with V/C ratios of more than 100% on the bridge over the N3. If this is compared to Figure 9 it can be seen that there is a difference of only one per cent between having the interchange and not having the interchange. From this it be determined that the new interchange and link road has no impact on the situation at the Hammarsdale interchange.

Figure 30: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge Village and R103 for RIP 1 with the New Interchange and Link Road






Page 56

If Figure 30, above, is compared with Figure 10 it can be seen that within the village itself there has been little change in V/C ratios on the various roads. The only area that any impact can be seen is on the N3 eastbound and the R103. The N3 has seen an increase in V/C ratio and the R103 has seen a decrease in V/C ratio as a result of the new interchange and link road.

As the new interchange and link road had no impact on the capacity issues at Hammarsdale interchange this interchange will still require upgrading as per section 7.2. The results of these upgrades can be seen in Figure 31.

Figure 31: V/C Ratios for an Upgraded Hammarsdale Interchange for RIP 1 with the New Interchange and Link Road

Figure 32: Number of Vehicles on the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 1

Figure 32 shows the new interchange and link road and from this it can be seen that only 58 vehicles use the new interchange and link road in this scenario.






Page 57

A Select Link Analysis (SLA) was carried out on the new link road to determine where about these vehicles came from and are travelling to. The results of this can be seen in Figure 33.

.

Figure 33: Select Link Analysis of the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 1

The results from the SLA show that the vehicles are coming from the Camperdown area and are using the N3. The destination for these 58 vehicles is the industrial area around Eddie Hagan Drive.

The SLA explains the reason for the increase in the V/C ratio on the N3 and the decrease in V/C ratio on the R103 as the number of vehicles travelling on these roads has increased and decreased as a result of the construction of the new interchange and link road.

It should be noted that the introduction of the N3 interchange will certainly increase the attractiveness of the areas directly adjacent to the N3 even if the impact on the other roads will not be of any significance.

7.8.2 Road Improvement Package Two

For RIP 2 the interchange was added to the original model that had no additional road upgrades, beside those required for RIP 2. As with RIP 1 the intersection of Eddie Hagan Drive/R103 is upgraded to be signal controlled.






Page 58

Figure 34: V/C Ratios for Cato Ridge and R103 for RIP 2 with the New Interchange and Link Road

If a comparison of Figure 34, above, and Figure 13 are made it can be seen that the V/C ratios on roads within Cato Ridge village remain similar. The only change is on the N3 and R103. The N3 has seen an increase in the V/C ratio whereas the R103 has seen a decrease in the V/C ratio.

Figure 35: Number of Vehicles using the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 2

As can be seen from Figure 35 the number of vehicles utilising the new interchange and link road is minimal as the model shows that 77 vehicles will be travelling northbound and none southbound.

A SLA of the links shows that all of these 77 vehicles are travelling to the industrial area along Eddie Hagan Drive and that these have all come from the






Page 59

direction of Camperdown to the west of Cato Ridge. This can be seen in Figure 36 below.

Figure 36: Select Link Analysis for the New Interchange and Link Road for RIP 2






Page 60

8 PUBLIC TRANSPORT

As part of this project the public transport situation needs to be assessed.

8.1 Existing Public Transport Infrastructure

The status quo report states that there are four public transport interchanges in the CR LAP, these are three mini bus taxi interchanges (MBT) and one rail station. The three MBT‟s are located at the following points:

Cato Ridge interchange within Cato Ridge Town Centre at the intersection of

Newmark and Selby Street, although on site observations show this may have moved

to an area east of Dunbar shopping centre;

The Abattoir interchange is located at the northern end of Eddie Hagan Drive in the

vicinity of the abattoir; and

The Fredville interchange is located approximately three kilometres west of the

industrial precinct and is the only regional MBT i.e. will offer trips to Pinetown,

Shongwani and Durban.

There are currently no bus interchanges within the CR LAP area.

8.2 Existing Public Transport Routes and Services

Rail Timetable

The status quo report has the current rail timetable for the “new line” (NATCOR) line from Metrorail.

The following was deduced from the rail timetable:

There are 14 trips per day between Cato Ridge and Durban station from Monday to

Friday;

It takes approximately two hours to travel between Cato Ridge and Durban; and

It takes approximately 20 minutes to travel between Hammarsdale and Cato Ridge.

Mini-Bus Taxi Routes

An assessment was undertaken to determine the origin and destination of all MBT routes that pass through the Cato Ridge study area – except long distance services that pass through the study area along the N3.

In order to undertake this task the Cato Ridge Area was divided into three segments.

Segment 1 – Those routes that pass through or in the vicinity of the Cato Ridge Town

Centre;

Segment 2 – Those routes that pass through the Harrison Flats/Eddie Hagan Road

area; and

Segment 3 – Those that originate from the Fredville area.






Page 61

Based on the information obtained the following destinations have been imputed for each segment:

Segment 1 – Mpumalanga, Harrison Flats, Pietermaritzburg, Pinetown, Mophela,

Hillcrest and Fredville;

Segment 2 – Hammarsdale, CBD, Pinetown, Fredville, Mpumalanga and Cato Ridge;

and

Segment 3 – Pinetown, CBD, Hillcrest, Hammarsdale, Pietermaritzburg, Cato Ridge,

Harrison Flats and Botha‟s Hill.

Public Transport Coverage

An assessment of public transport coverage carried out for the status quo analysis showed that the area south east of Cato Ridge Village centre is not well served. In addition the area between Fredville and Harrison Flats and the area north west of Assmang are not well served, thus implying that residents of these areas have a long walk to access public transport.

The area to the south east of Cato Ridge Village is sparsely populated so this would account for the lack of public transport routes in this area.

The area between Fredville and Harrison Flats is sparsely populated; the majority of the population tends to be towards the Harrison Flats side. Access to this residential area is limited due to the topography of the area.

8.3 Proposed Public Transport

Having examined the location of the existing facilities and the proposed land uses for Phase 1 there are a number of recommendations to be made with regards to proposed infrastructure. These proposals are based on an examination of the existing infrastructure and the proposed land uses for the CR LAP area.

From this the following recommendations are made, these can be seen in Figure 37:

Existing MBT interchanges are upgraded to include facilities for buses as well;

Two new stops are constructed on Eddie Hagan Drive, one in the vicinity of

65301TRK/Eddie Hagan Drive intersection and the other is located between the R103

and 94042TRk (Assmang access) intersections;

A stop is constructed close to the Safal Steel access road;

A stop is constructed on To Buchanan Road;

A new stop is constructed on the new loop road midway between the R103 N3;

That a new stop is constructed on the MR556 for those in that industrial area;

That a new loop MBT route is created that travels northbound on To Buchanan Road

and then joins the link road north from Assmang and then travelling south on Eddie

Hagan Drive; and

As the land between the R103 and N3 is released the PT route is extended to include

these areas.






Page 62

The new stops on Eddie Hagan Drive are recommended as this will see a large amount of development taking place there. This will result in a large increase in public transport trips and at the present time the nearest interchange is at the northern end of Eddie Hagan Drive. Constructing two new stops on Eddie Hagan Drive will reduce the distance that employees have to walk to access public transport facilities.

Constructing a stop on the R103 and To Buchanan Road will also allow those employees located at industrial units on these roads to access public transport without having to walk large distances.

The new route will improve access for those living in Kwa Ximba TA as the public transport accessibility assessment carried out in the status quo assessment showed that there is no public transport coverage in this area.






Page 63

Figure 37: Proposed Public Transport Infrastructure






Page 64

9 Conclusion and Recommendations

9.1 Conclusion

The purpose of the modelling was to assess the impact that the LAP would have on the road network. The modelling would also determine the upgrades and the threshold at which they would be required. The model also assessed the additional links that would be required in order to allow the development to take place.

A number of phases, based on road infrastructure upgrades, were modelled with the associated land that could be released once these were place.

The model showed that at a number of points a threshold was reached at which a major road infrastructure upgrade was required in order to allow development of the area to continue. Table 12 and Figure 38 show the GLA threshold reached and the major road infrastructure upgrade required in order to allow development to continue.

Figure 38: Graph Showing the Industrial GLA and Additional Road Infrastructure Required

Table 12 provides a summary of the road infrastructure required per phase and the additional road infrastructure required.






Page 65

Table 12: Road Infrastructure Packages and Additional Road Infrastructure Required


Total Industrial GLA (m²)

Road Infrastructure Additional Road Infrastructure

Existing 408,002 NA Localised widening of some intersections where required

RIP 1 599,226

Link 4-3, 8-1, 10-1 and 10-2

Signalisation of Eddie Hagan Drive/94042TRK

Widening of bridge over the N3 at the Hammarsdale Interchange and for a distance north and south of the interchange

Upgrade of Hammarsdale Interchange to signals

RIP 2 700,050

Link 3-1

Signalisation of Eddie Hagan Drive/R103 and Eddie Hagan Drive/Link 3-1 intersection

New interchange and link road for the N3

Widening of the N3 to four lanes per direction between the Peacevale and Cato Ridge interchanges

Upgrade of the Cato Ridge Interchange to signals

Widening of the MR385/R103 to two lanes per direction from the Old Georgedale Road intersection to the eastbound on-slip

Widening of Eddie Hagan Drive to two lanes per direction between the R103 and 65301TRK


RIP 3 912,513

Link 1-1

Signalisation of Eddie Hagan Drive/65301 TRK and Eddie Hagan Drive/Drakensberg Street intersections

RIP 4 1,061,348 Link 2-1

Upgrade of the R103 to two lanes per direction between the eastbound on-slip and Eddie Hagan Drive

RIP 5 1,111,334

Link 7-4

Construction of intersections on link road

RIP 6 1,250,344 Link 7-3

It should be noted that for the Additional Road Infrastructure they should be implemented before the threshold GLA value is reached as this is the point at which the road and intersections are over capacity.






Page 66

The model shows that the new interchange and link road are being utilised by those travelling along the N3. The majority of vehicles using this new interchange are those travelling to the industrial area between the N3 and R103. The model does show some vehicles using it to gain access to the Eddie Hagan Drive industrial land. It would appear that the majority of vehicles are still using the R103 to gain access to the industrial land surrounding Eddie Hagan Drive.

An investigation into this showed that the distance between the Hammarsdale interchange and midway along Eddie Hagan Drive is 9km via the R103 and 12km via the new interchange. The difference in distance, coupled with the fact that the R103 is not at capacity, results in those travelling to Eddie Hagan Drive from the Hammarsdale area using the R103 as the shorter distance outweighs the lower speed on the R103 in comparison to the longer distance and higher speed of the N3 route.

A sensitivity test was carried out to determine the impact of congestion on the R103. This was carried out by applying time penalties to the R103 to simulate the impact of the R130 being at the capacity. The result was that large proportions of the traffic heading for Eddie Hagan Drive used the new interchange. This shows that while there is capacity on the R103 vehicles will continue to use it as it is a shorter distance to travel, but as soon as the R103 reaches capacity vehicles will start to use the N3 to reach Eddie Hagan Drive.

Locating the new interchange closer to Hammarsdale thus reducing the distance could make it a more attractive prospect as the shorter distance and higher speed could attract vehicles to that route.

Although the modelling shows that the N3 widening, new interchange and link road are only necessary when the GLA is approaching 850,597m², it may be sensible to carry out these infrastructure upgrades at an earlier stage, possibly from when development first starts there. There are two reasons for this. The first is the amount of time that it takes for major infrastructure projects like this to be completed on site due to the complexity and size of them. The second reason is that having these in from the start makes the area more accessible and desirable as access is there from the start.

Within Cato Ridge village itself, the model showed that the new link between Mazeppa Road and Old Georgedale Road would be utilised to gain access to this land. For the link between School Road and Selby Road the model showed that vehicles would not use this route and would instead follow the old route if this remained open.

Overall the model showed that the majority of links would have a V/C ratio of less than 90% and that they would remain within capacity. The only section that is of concern is that section of the R103 between Alice Goswell Road and Dunbar Road, but this can be negated by widening of the R103 to increase capacity.

At the request of ETA two additional scenarios were run where the new interchange and link road were constructed at an earlier stage than required. This was to determine if the construction of these would have any impact on any of the other additional road upgrades required. As a result of this the models for RIP 1 and RIP 2 were modified to include the new interchange and link road in these scenarios.






Page 67

For RIP 1 the new interchange and link road did not remove the requirement to upgrade the interchange at Hammarsdale to signals and widening of the bridge over the N3 at this point as this interchange was still overcapacity. For RIP 2 there are no additional upgrades required so the addition of the new interchange and link road had no impact on this.

For both RIP 1 and 2 the number of vehicles using the new interchange and link road was of no significance. The introduction of the N3 interchange will however improve and increase the attractiveness of developments in close proximity of the N3 interchange. An analysis of this showed that all of these vehicles came from the Camperdown area and that the final destination for all these was Eddie Hagan Drive. No vehicles are travelling south on the new interchange and link road for RIP 1 and 2 and none are from the east.

From the modelling it can be seen that very few vehicles use the new interchange and link road in RIP 1 and 2, even in RIP 3 where it is required for capacity reasons the number of vehicles travelling is still low. The number of vehicles using the new interchange and link road only increase substantially as the area between the R103 and N3 is developed. As this area develops the number of vehicles increases.

From the modelling it can be seen that the new interchange and link road are only significantly utilised when the area between the N3 and R103 is developed. The new interchange and link road are required to provide additional capacity and remove the strain of additional traffic on the Eddie Hagan Drive/R103 intersection, but the numbers using this route are relatively low.

The real benefit of the new interchange and link road is that it opens the land between the N3 and R103 for development and provides an alternative route to this area that avoids the heavily congested R103.

As part of the development a number of public transport improvements are planned to encourage people to use this rather than the car. The improvements consist of upgrading existing interchanges, additional stops in certain locations and a new route connecting Cato Ridge Village and the industrial areas.

9.1.1 Beyond 2030

Although the CR LAP only covers the period from 2010 to 2030 it is felt that a mention of the possibilities after 2030 should be made as there is still land available to the south of the N3 that could be developed.

With the new interchange in place this would allow development of land to the south of the interchange, but this is to the east of the current proposed location and would entail long roads to gain access to this area. But, in order to develop this land there will need to have been a major change in the transport habits as the strategic modelling carried out in the first stage showed that the section of N3 between the Peacvale and Hammarsdale interchanges would act to restrict the amount of development that could occur. So in order for more land to be developed there will need to be a reduction in traffic on the N3.

There are a number of possible projects that might help to increase capacity on the N3, the main one being the freight only route from the Port of Durban to Cato Ridge that would remove lorries from the N3. But this would only increase






Page 68

capacity by a marginal amount and would probably not be enough to warrant large development to occur in Cato Ridge.

9.2 Recommendations

Following on from the modelling the following recommendations can be made

That the existing road network can accommodate 408,002m2 of industrial, 641

residential units, 16,995m2 of commercial/business and 12,889m

2 of facility

That RIP 1 will see the construction of the following

Link 4-3, 8-1, 10-1 and 10-2

Upgrade of the Eddie Hagan Drive/94042TRK intersection to signals

That during RIP One development the Hammarsdale Interchange will require

upgrading to signals and the bridge widened to two lanes per direction

With these upgrade in place an additional 191,224m2 of industrial can be

developed (total industrial of 599,226m2)


Link 3-1

Upgrading of Eddie Hagan Drive/R103 and Eddie Hagan Drive/Link 3-1

intersections to signals

With these upgrades in place an additional 100,824m2of industrial can be

developed (total industrial 700,050m2)


Link 1-1

Upgrading of Eddie Hagan Drive/65301TRk and Eddie Hagan

Drive/Drakensberg Street to signals

That during RIP Three the following will require construction

Construction of new interchange on the N3 and link road between the N3 and

R103

Widening of the N3 to four lanes per direction between the Peacevale and

Cato Ridge interchanges

Upgrading of the Cato Ridge interchange to signals and widening of the

bridge over the N3

Widening of the MR385/R103 to two lanes per direction between the Old

Georgedale Road and eastbound on-slip intersection

Widening of Eddie Hagan Drive to two lanes per direction between the R103

and 65301TRK

With these upgrades in place an additional 212,463m2 of industrial can be

developed (total industrial 912,513m2)


Link 2-1

With this upgrade in place an additional 148,835m2 of industrial can be

developed (total industrial 1,061,348m2)


Link 7-4

Construction of a signalised intersection on the new link road








Page 69


Link 7-3

Upgrade of the two intersections on the link road to four arm intersections

That during RIP Six the R103 will widened to two lanes per direction between

the eastbound on-slip and Eddie Hagan Drive



Existing MBT interchanges are upgraded to include facilities for buses as well;

Two new stops are constructed on Eddie Hagan Drive, one in the vicinity of

65301TRK/Eddie Hagan Drive intersection and the other is located between the R103

and 94042TRk (Assmang access) intersections;

A stop is constructed close to the Safal Steel access road;

A stop is constructed on To Buchanan Road;

A new stop is constructed on the new loop road midway between the R103 N3;

That a new stop is constructed on the MR556 for those in that industrial area;

That a new loop MBT route is created that travels northbound on To Buchanan Road

and then joins the link road north from Assmang and then travelling south on Eddie

Hagan Drive; and

As the land between the R103 and N3 is released the PT route is extended to include

these areas.

Appendix A

2010 Base AM Matrix





LAP TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT ISSUE REV F.DOCX Page A1





LAP TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT ISSUE REV F.DOCX Page C1

Appendix B

SATURN RESULTS





LAP TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT ISSUE REV F.DOCX Page C2

Date post:	11-Feb-2022
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	3 times
Download:	0 times

Appendix 2 LAP Transport Assessment Issue - Durban

Documents