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Appendix E5: Climate Change
Appendix E5: Climate Change
OFFSET INDUSTRIES Climate change assessment report for
the proposed Lephalele Coal Mines
colliery outside Lephalale, Limpopo.
19 July 2017
Climate change assessment.
Author: Brett Reimers
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Offset Industries (Pty) Ltd was asked by Kongiwe Environmental (Pty) Ltd to produce a climate change assessment report for Lephalele Coal Mines (Pty) Ltd
in respect of a proposed coal mine and energy project in Lephalale, Limpopo Province. The proposed project is the development of an open pit coal mine utilizing the truck and shovel mining method. The proposed mine is intended
to produce six million tons of coal per year for supply to the associated independent power producer (IPP) via conveyor belt. The intended life of mine
is more than 35 years.
Climate change is a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, that persists
for an extended period, typically decades or longer. The changing climate affects both humans and the environment in a range of ways, some of them
negatively. Predicted examples include increasing levels of poverty, displacment of people and potential food and water shortages.
The proposed colliery is a highly carbon intensive activity proposed to take place in a landscape that is largely natural and likely functioning as a carbon
sink. The project was assessed via the amount of emissions per scope. There are three scopes.
Scope 1 emissions are direct emissions, burning of fuels in vehicles or
equipment owned by the company, or the creation of fugitive emissions due to the company’s operations.
Scope 2 are emissions generated during the production of electricity that the mine would purchase from a supplier.
Scope 3 emissions are all other emissions not directly emitted by the mine, but
which are often supply chain emissions from the carbon emission of goods and services bought by the colliery.
During the climate change assessment, it was determined that scope 1 emissions are likely to be the largest emissions component of the proposed
mine due to the large amounts of liquid fossil fuels required to power the
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mining equipment. Additionally, the risk of unearthing fugitive emissions of
methane trapped within the coal seam, as well as refrigerant emissions from onsite cooling (air-conditioning) would add to the scope 1 emissions for the
project. Scope 2 emissions are also substantial, however, confidence in the amount of electricity required is limited. Under the current projections over the life of mine electricity emissions alone would account for 481 068.50 tons
of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions. This number could rise or fall if the source of the electricity is altered; for instance if a less efficient local IPP
was tapped for power these emissions could rise, but if a renewable power project was used instead this number could fall dramatically.
The lowest emission stages of the project are likely to be the construction and
decommissioning phase, due to the reduced time frames compared to the operational phase. The operational phase of the project is the greatest source
of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions due to the timeframes involved. The mine plan is set to run for over 35 years. This is the longest time frame of the
project and will require the majority of the earth moving, meaning the greatest amount of liquid fossil fuels as well as electricity will be consumed
here. In the decommissioning phase some of the carbon emissions could be recouped with good concurrent and post operational rehabilitation practises. This potentially gives rise positive effects when fugitive emission sources are
sealed away as the waste and discard dumps are covered and vegetated allowing for atmospheric CO2 uptake, although this is likely to be at a reduced
rate compared to the current land use.
There are no national legislative impediments to the mine receiving authorisation and indeed, South Africa is currently powered largely by coal
from mines such as the proposed colliery. However, South Africa has signed international agreements to curb its GHG emissions. The production of
additional carbon intensive coal may, on the face of it, be in contravention of these agreements.
If the government henceforth commits to its international agreements it will need to begin reducing its reliance on coal derived electricity. Some steps are
being taken in this direction with the commissioning of more wind and solar
3
energy projects and the South African Treasury is looking at carbon emission
taxes to encourage companies to adopt less carbon intensive activities.
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DECLARATION
I Brett Reimers, declare that –
• I act as the independent ecologist in this matter;
• I do not have and will not have any vested interest (either business, financial, personal or other) in the undertaking of the proposed activity, other than remuneration for work performed in terms of the Environmental Impact Assessment Regulations, 2014;
• I will perform the work relating to the application in an objective manner, even if this results in views and findings that are not favourable to the applicant;
• I declare that there are no circumstances that may compromise my objectivity in performing such work;
• As a registered member of the South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions in terms of the Natural Scientific Professions Act, 2003 (Act No. 27 of 2003), I will undertake my professional duties in accordance with the Code of Conduct of the Council;
• I undertake to disclose to the applicant and the competent authority all material information in my possession that reasonably has or may have the potential of influencing any decision to be taken with respect to the application by the competent authority; and the objectivity of any report, plan or document to be prepared by myself for submission to the competent authority; all the particulars furnished by me in this report are true and correct; and
• I am aware that a person is guilty of an offence in terms of Regulation 48 (1) of the EIA Regulations, 2014, if that person provides incorrect or misleading information. A person who is convicted of an offence in terms of sub-regulation 48(1) (a)-(e) is liable to the penalties as contemplated in section 49B-(1) of the National Environmental Management Act, 1998 (Act 107 of 1998).
Signature of the specialist: Date: 19 July 2017
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Specialist: Brett Reimers
Qualification: MSc Applied Marine Science (UCT) Telephone: O82 447 1698
E-mail: [email protected] Professional affiliation(s) (if any): SACNASP Pr.Sci.Nat: 400166/16
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary ..................................................................... 1
Declaration ................................................................................ 4
Climate change assessment report ................................................... 8 1. Introduction ............................................................................... 8
1.1. Project Background ................................................................. 8 1.2. What is climate change? .......................................................... 11 1.3. What is a carbon footprint? ....................................................... 11 1.4. Background on climate change within South Africa .......................... 12 1.5. Regional and global context ...................................................... 14
2. Terms of reference .................................................................... 17 2.1. Objectives of the study ........................................................... 17 2.2. Limitations .......................................................................... 17
3. Methodology ............................................................................ 18 3.1. Impact assessment methodology ................................................ 18
4. Results .................................................................................... 21 4.1. Scope 1 .............................................................................. 21 4.2. Scope 2 .............................................................................. 22 4.3. Scope 3 .............................................................................. 24
5. Discussion ................................................................................ 24 5.1. Scope 1 .............................................................................. 24 5.2. Scope 2 .............................................................................. 24 5.3. Scope 3 .............................................................................. 25 5.4. Effects of climate change ........................................................ 25
6. Impact Assessment ..................................................................... 26 6.1. Current land use ................................................................... 27 6.2. Construction Phase ................................................................ 27 6.3. Operational Phase ................................................................. 29 6.4. Decommissioning Phase ........................................................... 32
7. Recommendations and mitigation measures ..................................... 36 7.1. Carbon footprinting ................................................................ 36 7.2. Biodiversity ......................................................................... 36 7.3. Fugitive emissions .................................................................. 37 7.4. Renewable energy ................................................................. 37 7.5. Carbon offsets ...................................................................... 37
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7.6. Project alternatives ............................................................... 38 8. Conclusion ............................................................................... 40 9. References .............................................................................. 42
List of tables
Table 1: Significance Rating Methodology ........................................... 19
Table 2: Scope 2 electricity emissions ............................................... 23
Table 3: Construction phase climate change impacts .............................. 28
Table 4:Operational phase climate change impacts ............................... 30
Table 5:Closure and decommissioning phase climate change impacts .......... 33
List of figures
Figure 1: Site boundary in relation to Lephalale, Limpopo ....................... 10
Figure 1: Trends in GHG emissions for South Africa between 2000 and 2010 (adapted from Stevens and Witi, 2014). ........................................ 13
Figure 2: Greenhouse effect diagram ................................................. 14
Figure 3: South Africa's CO2e emissions per capita compared to Sub-Saharan
Africa, Graph compiled by Google © 2014 with the data originating from the World Bank (as updated last 27 April 2017) ............................... 15
Figure 4: South Africa's emissions in relation to the various regions in the world as well as other developing nations that are also heavily reliant on fossil
fuels, Graph compiled by Google © 2014 with the data originating from the World Bank (as updated last 27 April 2017) ............................... 16
Figure 6: Annual sum of insolation available for solar PV energy production © SolarGIS 2014 ........................................................................ 39
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CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORT
1. Introduction
Offset Industries (Pty) Ltd (hereafter: Offset Industries) was asked by Kongiwe Environmental (Pty) Ltd (Kongiwe)to produce a climate change assessment
report for Lephalale Coal Mines (Pty) Ltd (LCM) in respect of a proposed coal mine and energy project in Lephalale, Limpopo Province. The proposed
project is the development of an open pit coal mine utilizing the truck and shovel mining method. The proposed mine is intended to produce six million
tons of coal per year for supply to an associated independent power producer (IPP) via conveyor belt. The intended life of mine is more than 35 years.
1.1. Project Background
LCM, which is a subsidiary of Masimong Group Holdings (MGH), proposes to develop a new Open Pit Coal Mine and Independent Power Producer (IPP) plant
approximately 22 km northeast of the town of Lephalale. The project is known as the Lephalale Coal and Power Project (LCPP) and is in the Lephalale Local Municipality. The proposed site is 10 km north of the R518 provincial road
which links the town of Lephalale and the village of Marken. The project area is made up of 12 farms. LCM holds Prospecting Rights for the following farms:
Prospecting Right LP 30/5/1/1/2/1359PR: farms Honingshade 427 LQ, Garibaldi
480 LQ, Pretoria 483 LQ, Wellington 432 LQ, Forfarshire 419 LQ, Stutgard 420 LQ, Billiards 428 LQ and Franschoek 207 LQ; and
Prospecting Right LP 30/5/1/1/2/1046PR: farms Grootgenoeg 426 LQ, Weltevreden 482 LQ, Sebright 205 LQ, Botmansdrift 423 LQ.
Kongiwe has been appointed by LCM to undertake the Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) process as part of the Mining Right Application (MRA) and other Environmental Authorisations (EA’s) required for the proposed Mine and
IPP. It is noted that the economic base case includes the consumption of the coal by the IPP, but alternative markets and optimisation options are being
investigated. Importantly, the applications at this stage will only be made for
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the mining section, applications for the IPP will be done in the future once the
detailed design of the IPP has progressed.
The project is located near Lephalale within the Limpopo Province of South
Africa. The Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates are: 23°33'2.51"S, 27°54'51.95"E (see Figure 1).
10
Figure 1: Site boundary in relation to Lephalale, Limpopo
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1.2. What is climate change?
The intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), established under the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) is the global authority on
climate change science. It defines climate change as follows:
Box 1: Climate change definition
Usually when referring to the challenge of climate change however, the emphasis falls on the anthropogenic (man made) contribution of greenhouse
gases (GHG) to the atmosphere which have resulted in an increased rate of change, often far faster than organisms can adapt.
1.2.1. Why does it matter?
There are very real implications for all life on earth should climate change proceed unabated, for instance, it is estimated that without a rapid
intervention targeted at reducing emissions, the resulting climate change could result in an additional 100 million people living in extreme poverty by
2030 (World Bank 2016). Other effects include sea level rise, potentially displacing many millions of people (NOAA 2016). Changes in weather patterns
affecting rainfall distributions and temperatures could reduce crop production in certain areas (Kang et al. 2009) potentially endangering many of the poorest
people on earth.
1.3. What is a carbon footprint?
A carbon footprint is defined as the total amount of carbon dioxide equivalent
gases (CO2e), more commonly referred to as greenhouse gases, released by a given activity or organisation over a fixed period of time, usually calculated
per year.
“a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its
properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity.”- IPCC 2007
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CO2e can be released in three different ways. These have been defined in
three categories or scopes.
1.3.1. Scope 1:
Refers to direct greenhouse gas emissions. These are those greenhouse gases
that arise during the construction, operation and decommisioning of a mine. In short, these emissions arise as a direct result of the action of the mine and
include all fuels burnt on site for power generation, transport as well as fugitive emissions from methane and refrigerants.
1.3.2. Scope 2:
These are related to greenhouse gases generated by electricity bought for supply to the premises of the mine. These emissions are generated producing
the power offsite but are still accounted for by the company utilizing that electricity.
1.3.3. Scope 3:
These emissions are harder to calculate, because these emissions are produced when goods such as fuel or equipment owned or produced for the company are
transported or machined. Scope three emissions are usually voluntarily reported on and are reported on by different companies to different degrees.
They include purchased goods and services, business travel and employee commuting which is not conducted in company vehicles; additionally waste
disposal, investments as well as leased assests are included as scope 3 emissions.
1.4. Background on climate change within South Africa
Since the inception of the IPCC in 1988, it has produced five comprehensive Assessment Reports (AR) focused exclusively on the causes of observed climate
change. They are currently in the sixth assessment cycle. As of AR5, the clear majority of climate scientists are convinced that the changes observed in the
climate are largely attributed to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, agricultural practices and land use change.
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In 2015, South Africa submitted its pledge to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, where it undertook to have emissions peak before year 2025. From there on emissions are intended to plateau before
being curtailed. One of the largest sources of carbon emissions in South Africa originates from within the energy production sector (Figure 2).
In a global context, South Africa is in the top 15 large carbon emitters due largely to our heavy reliance on coal for power generation.
Figure 2: Trends in GHG emissions for South Africa between 2000 and 2010 (adapted from Stevens and Witi, 2014).
On average the energy sector accounts for 80% of the emissions. South Africa’s energy sector is highly reliant on the combustion of coal which releases carbon
dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and water (CO2, N2O, CH4 and H2O respectively). These gases are all considered greenhouse gases and have the
ability to trap long wave radiation, that would otherwise have exited the atmosphere, within the atmosphere thereby raising the temperature such as occurs within a green house (Figure 3).
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Gg
CO2
eq
Energy All sectors
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Figure 3: Greenhouse effect diagram
1.5. Regional and global context
South Africa is the largest emitter of GHG in Sub-Saharan Africa per capita. As
of 2013 the country produced 8.86 tons of CO2e per capita (Figure 4), with Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea at 7.18 and 6.79 tons CO2e per capita
respectively.
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Figure 4: South Africa's CO2e emissions per capita compared to Sub-Saharan Africa, Graph compiled by Google © 2014 with the data originating from the World Bank (as updated last 27 April 2017)
In a global context South Africa still emits more than average, the graph below
details its emission history in relation to other developing nations and regions of the world (Figure 5).
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Figure 5: South Africa's emissions in relation to the various regions in the world as well as other developing nations that are also heavily reliant on fossil fuels, Graph compiled by Google © 2014 with the
data originating from the World Bank (as updated last 27 April 2017)
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2. Terms of reference
This climate change assessment report makes use of the desktop information
available for the proposed development. Very few literature resources are available on the production of GHGs within Limpopo, and as such, comparisons
used in this report are on a national or regional scale. This report highlights potential impacts and proposes mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce
CO2e emissions.
2.1. Objectives of the study
Opencast (or open pit) coal mining and coal derived energy production are
fossil fuel intensive activities and as such, their production will release large amounts of carbon equivalent (CO2e) emissions or greenhouse gases (GHG). In the interests of impact mitigation, a decision was taken to assess the impact of
this activity with regard to what amount of GHGs it will contribute to South Africa’s GHG emissions. Once assessed, mitigation options can then be
proposed to reduce the GHG impacts emanating from the proposed development.
2.2. Limitations
While this assessment is entirely dependent on the data supplied, at all times every effort has been made to disclose the source of the data and the figures
used. However, it is likely that once a retrospective carbon assessment is carried out there will be discrepancies between the figures used within this
report and reality. Where estimations are used, these will similarly be disclosed. Where quantities are not supplied, these will be explained and if
possible the worst-case scenario will be used to avoid under accounting.
The mine was originally developed to supply coal to an IPP, the IPP has been omitted from this climate change report. This report will only focus on the
climate change impacts from the development, operation and decommissioning of the proposed colliery with the climate impacts of the IPP,
should these plans progress, to be assessed at a later stage.
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3. Methodology
This is a scoping carbon footprint and climate change assessment; as such it is
less detailed than a full investigation. This report seeks to predict, where possible, the carbon footprint of the proposed colliery and its activities. The
boundaries for the assessment are within the footprint of the project, that is, it is a “gate-to-gate assessment.” This means that the carbon emissions for
deliveries to the site of equipment and building supplies are not assessed. This has been done due to the myriad of ways these items could be sourced and
supplied. The assessment includes where possible all activities relating to coal extraction on the premises. It envisions the coal as a product. If the coal is shipped off site to be burned at facilities not controlled by the mine the
carbon emissions of using or burning that coal leave with it. If the coal is exported, unless the vehicles transporting the product belong to the mine
these emissions will be viewed as part of the customers’ Scope 1 emissions as they will be responsible for extracting the energy from the coal.
Emission data, factors and sources were extracted from a variety of literature
including but not limited to:
• Eskom integrated report (Eskom 2016).
• GHG Inventory for South Africa (DEA 2014)
• Provincial climate change response strategy 2016-2020 (Limpopo Economic Development, Environment and Tourism 2016).
• Technical guidelines for monitoring, reporting and verification of greenhouse gas emissions by industry. (Department of Environmental Affairs 2017)
• World Bank (data available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC)
3.1. Impact assessment methodology
The impact significance rating process serves two purposes: firstly, it helps to highlight the critical impacts requiring consideration in the management and
approval process; secondly, it shows the primary impact characteristics, as defined above, used to evaluate impact significance.
The impact significance rating system is presented in Table 1 and involves
three parts:
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Part A: Define impact consequence using the three primary impact
characteristics of magnitude, spatial scale/ population and duration;
Part B: Use the matrix to determine a rating for impact consequence based on
the definitions identified in Part A; and
Part C: Use the matrix to determine the impact significance rating, which is a function of the impact consequence rating (from Part B) and the probability of
occurrence.
Table 1: Significance Rating Methodology
Part A: defining consequence in terms of magnitude, duration and spatial
scale�Use these definitions to define the consequence in Part B
Impact characteristics
Definition Criteria
Magnitude
Major -
Substantial deterioration or harm to receptors; receiving environment has an
inherent value to stakeholders; receptors of impact are of conservation importance;
or identified threshold often exceeded
Moderate -
Moderate/measurable deterioration or harm to receptors; receiving environment
moderately sensitive; or identified threshold occasionally exceeded
Minor -
Minor deterioration (nuisance or minor deterioration) or harm to receptors;
change to receiving environment not measurable; or identified threshold never
exceeded
Minor + Minor improvement; change not measurable; or threshold never exceeded
Moderate + Moderate improvement; within or better
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than the threshold; or no observed
reaction
Major + Substantial improvement; within or better
than the threshold; or favourable publicity
Spatial scale or
population
Site or local Site specific or confined to the immediate project area
Regional May be defined in various ways, e.g.
cadastral, catchment, topographic
National/
International Nationally or beyond
Duration
Short term Up to 18 months.
Medium term 18 months to 5 years
Long term Longer than 5 years
Part B: determining consequence rating
Rate consequence based on definition of magnitude, spatial extent and
duration
Spatial scale/ population
Site or
Local Regional
National/
international
Magnitude
Minor Duration
Long term Medium Medium High
Medium term Low Low Medium
Short term Low Low Medium
Moderate Duration Long term Medium High High
Medium term Medium Medium High
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Short term Low Medium Medium
Major Duration
Long term High High High
Medium term Medium Medium High
Short term Medium Medium High
Part C: determining significance rating
Rate significance based on consequence and probability
Consequence
Low Medium High
Probability (of exposure
to impacts)
Definite Medium Medium High
Possible Low Medium High
Unlikely Low Low Medium
4. Results
4.1. Scope 1
Scope 1 emissions for the colliery include all fuels burned on the premises by
vehicles or equipment owned by the mine. Additionally, Scope 1 emissions also include fugitive emissions.
4.1.1. Fuels burnt on the premises
If the mine decided to burn its own coal on the premises these would be accounted for under scope 1. This includes liquid or gas fuels used in vehicles
or generators.
Data from the business plan did not apportion amounts of fuel and therefore
this has had to be excluded. It would be fair to assume that in a heavy machinery operation such as the earth moving required in open cast coal
mining that this impact will be substantial. Emissions would also occur from smaller transport vehicles used to travel between mining areas as well as those
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emissions that occur off site. If in winter offices require heating and gas is
used, this too would form part of the scope 1 emissions.
4.1.2. Fugitive emissions
These are those emissions that result from leaks in equipment during operation
that escape into the atmosphere. Or gases that escape as a direct result of mining operations.
Fugitive emissions originate from a variety of sources, including the potential amount of methane trapped within the various coal seams as well as
overburden material that may be liberated when the rock is fractured during blasting or excavations. These emissions can also originate from discard dumps
where low grade material is introduced to atmospheric oxygen and is thereby oxidised releasing carbon dioxide. The storage of cleared vegetation if allowed
to decompose in anoxic or low oxygen environments could generate methane during decomposition. Studies should be undertaken to estimate the amount of
fugitive emissions that occur from the mine. These figures should be added to the carbon footprint to increase its accuracy for reporting purposes.
4.2. Scope 2
A proposed budget for electricity requirements year on year was reported in the pre-feasibility study (RHDHK 2016) and for this scope it was possible to
calculate the scope 2 emissions if all electricity were to be sourced from Eskom. The table below,Table 2, calculates the emissions from the electricity
predicted to be consumed on site. The emissions factor was sourced from Eskom (2016).
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Table 2: Scope 2 electricity emissions
Year
Energy consumed Total per year (kWh)
Conversion to MWh (kWh /1000)
Emission factor
Tons CO2e (per year) June-Aug Sept-May
(kWh) (kWh) 1 610 653 1 831 959 2 442 612 2 442.61 1.01 2 467.04 2 1 221 306 3 663 919 4 885 225 4 885.22 1.01 4 934.08 3 1 831 959 5 495 878 7 327 837 7 327.84 1.01 7 401.12 4 2 442 612 7 327 837 9 770 450 9 770.45 1.01 9 868.15 5 3 053 266 9 159 797 12 213 062 12 213.06 1.01 12 335.19 6 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 7 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 8 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 9 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 10 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 11 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 12 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 13 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 14 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 15 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 16 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 17 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 18 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 19 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 20 3 663 919 10 991 756 14 655 675 14 655.67 1.01 14 802.23 Total for first 20 years 259 039.05
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After 5 years the mine will be fully operational and electricity demand will
have stabilised. In the first 20 years electricity consumption will account for 259 039.05 tons of CO2e. The life of mine is expected to be at least 35 years.
We can extrapolate further then factoring in the stabilised power demand at 35 years the electricity usage, based on the predicted demand, will be responsible for 259 035.05 + (14 802.23x15) = 481 068.50 tons of CO2e.
4.3. Scope 3
Full accounting of Scope 3 emissions is difficult as not all the data may be
easily accessible or reliable in that it is itself third party information. Partial scope 3 emissions reporting is possible, records can be kept of employee
commuting as well as hire cars use and other business travel, as most airline provide some form of carbon accounting per flight. Making use of suppliers that have audited carbon emission disclosures increases the confidence in the
data available.
5. Discussion
5.1. Scope 1
All of the data necessary for the accounting of the scope 1 emissions is not yet available. However, an assumption has been made that scope one emissions
will be the largest source of CO2e emissions. The movement of large quantities of earth will require the use of specialised heavy machinery that will then
require large amounts of liquid fossil fuels to power them. The production of emissions from company owned vehicles is a Scope 1 emission. Fugitive
emissions are also counted under Scope 1, methane can be release when coal seams are exposed or fractured allowing this potent GHG to escape. Methane is between 23-26 times more potent that CO2 in bringing about atmospheric
warming over a given period in the atmosphere. On the other hand, other fugitive emissions from cooling systems are orders of magnitude more potent
than methane.
5.2. Scope 2
Electricity consumption is responsible for a large portion of emissions over the
life of the project. It is assumed that all electricity will be supplied by Eskom
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which at the time of the assessment had an emissions factor for all electricity
sold of 1.01 tons of CO2e released for every MWh produced. Over the 35 years of expected operation this figure may drop as Eskom adopts more renewable
power projects within the national grid. Alternatively, if the source of electricity is changed depending on that source’s emission data the emissions factor will change. The amount of CO2e released as a result of electricity
production could decrease if renewable energy (solar, wind etc.) or lower impact sources of electricity generation are used (gas).
5.3. Scope 3
Scope 3 emissions can best be described as other sources of emission which
can still account for a large proportion of the organisation’s carbon footprint. The use of heavy vehicles that an open pit mine requires, often imposes a high CO2e cost of production. Steel, for example, requires a lot of energy to
produce and then rework into a vehicle component. If the colliery invests money in carbon intensive portfolios or businesses this will also increase the
carbon footprint of the company if a detailed scope 3 assessment is carried out. Scope 3 emissions are often under reported due to the difficulty in
securing reliable data from 3rd parties.
5.4. Effects of climate change
The potential effects of climate change are complex and subject to other
drivers that make precise prediction difficult. The current thinking, based on model predictions is that Southern Africa will on average increase in
temperature by as much as 3.4-3.7°C when comparing the periods of 1980-1999 with 2080-2099 (CSAG, 2017). As a result of this rise in temperature the
country will experience decreased winter and spring rainfall (IPCC, 2007a). This will not be a uniform change in temperature or rainfall; western areas of
Southern Africa are likely to become drier while eastern areas are likely to experience increased rainfall. These changes have large scale knock on effects
in that changes in rainfall affect which plants can survive within a given area, which alters natural vegetation ranges and habitat. These changes can
potentially impact on what food crops can be produced and in which region. Changes in rainfall may also impact on water supply, leading to increased
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desertification in particular areas. On a global scale as polar ice retreats and
oceans warm, sea level rise may affect coastal regions (IPCC, 2007b).
The Limpopo Environmental Outlook Report (Eco Africa, 2016) recognizes that
climate change is a key driver of ecosystem change affecting the grassland biome within the province. Water scarcity within the area could increase if the
predicted rainfall season is shortened. This may require occupants to rely increasingly on borehole water extraction. This extraction may impact on the
development and operation of the mine if it hopes to use this water for construction or processing purposes. Making use of water from a water transfer
scheme may also be affected if water is needed for human supply within the area.
Increasing temperatures in an area already described as having high to very high temperatures (Kleynhans et al. 2005) could place additional strain on the
mine’s labour force and may require the installation of additional cooling solutions. These cooling solutions would draw additional energy and release
more fugitive emissions exacerbating the project’s climate change impact. Surrounding industries largely farming may be impacted by droughts driving up
the costs of food provision within the area which may have knock of effects on the mine employees.
Rainfall events though more rare are likely to be more severe when they do
occur. The drier conditions may affect vegetation patterns potentially resulting in the loss of larger trees and the encroachment of grassy species
that sequester less atmospheric CO2, thereby reducing the efficiency of the regional area’s carbon sink. The loss of vegetation may result in more loose
topsoil, which may under heavy rainfall events be washed away down slope so reducing the fertility of the landscape. Increased erosion events will impact on the mine’s ability to provide cost effective rehabilitation. Additional
maintenance of mine dumps and revegetated areas will likely be necessary. Storm water controls, pollution control dams and return water dams will need
to be upgraded to cope with increased risk from sudden flood events increasing the capital expenditure for the mine.
6. Impact Assessment
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6.1. Current land use
The current land use of the area earmarked for the development of the colliery is largely natural. The predominant economic activity is hunting and
game farming. These are low climate change impact activities. The land is a source of carbon sequestration via the uptake of CO2 by the trees within the
bushveld. The CO2 is converted into carbohydrates and stored within the plants. When the tree dies part of the carbon stored within it is released back
to the atmosphere. However, much of the rootstock remains in the ground and is bound to the sediment where is largely inert and is oxidised slowly over
time. The sediments and natural vegetation of the area take up and store carbon, making the area a carbon sink for the country.
6.2. Construction Phase
28
Table 3: Construction phase climate change impacts
No.
Activity Impact
Description
Before mitigation Mitigation
measures /
Recommendations
After mitigation
Magnitude Duration Spatial Scale Consequence Probability Significance Magnitude Duration Spatial Scale Consequence Probability Significance
1
Scope 1
Emissions
Burning of
liquid fuels
Moderate
-
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International High Definite High
Minimise mining
footprint, source
most economical
vehicles for tasks.
Investigate
offsets.
Minor -
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International Medium Definite Medium
2
Scope 2
Emissions
Electricity
derived
emissions
Moderate
-
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International
High Definite High
Include
renewable energy
solutions (solar
Photo Voltaic,
PV) to reduce
reliance on
Eskom, increase
energy
efficiencies at
time of build,
Minor -
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International Medium Definite Medium
3
Scope 3
Emissions
Ancillary
emissions
Moderate
-
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International
High Definite High
Encourage car
pooling, source
materials from
carbon neutral
suppliers,
investigate
offsetting for
business travel,
Minor -
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International Medium Definite Medium
29
During the construction phase a large amount of climate related impact will
occur as a result of vegetation clearing and alteration of the current land use. The loss of the carbon sink capacity that the vegetation provides, by
converting CO2 to oxygen and storing the CO2 within the soil, will be lost. Additionally, the use of heavy machinery and mobile generators during this process will require the burning of fossil fuels adding anthropogenic CO2e to
the atmosphere.
Scope 1 emissions are seen to be High before mitigation and Medium after
mitigation actions. Scope 2 emissions are seen to be High before mitigation droping to Medium with the implimentation of the recommended measures.
scope 3 emissions could drop from High to Medium significance if mitigation measures are implimented. Impacts are cumulative and add to the rising levels
of CO2e currently being emitted both locally and abroad.
One of the reasons for the high impact scoring is due to the international
nature of the impact. CO2e emissions are released from the proposed activity into the atmosphere where there are no controls to trap the gas and keep it
within South African borders. Indeed climate change is defined as a global challenge and requires multiparty and diciplinary approaches to mitigate and
adapt to it. Steel and concrete production are also heavily reliant on the burning of fossil fuels and emissions generated when producing and utilizing
these resources must be attributed to the proposed project. 6.2.1. Mitigation
Clearing only the necessary areas required for construction will reduce the amount of vegetation loss and allow for the preservation of some of its carbon
uptake potential. The use of solar panels for lighting and small scale power supply within temporary infrastructure will decrease the proposed project’s
reliance on fossil fuels and reduce the amount of GHG produced. It is essential that wetlands are conserved as these systems have been demonstrated to
sequester carbon at a greater rate than most terrestrial system. Carbon offsets and emmisions trading should be investigated at an early project stage to
prevent having to play catchup at a later date.
6.3. Operational Phase
30
Table 4:Operational phase climate change impacts
No.
Activity Impact
Description
Before mitigation Mitigation
measures /
Recommendations
After mitigation
Magnitude Duration Spatial Scale Consequence Probability Significance Magnitude Duration Spatial Scale Consequence Probability Significance
1
Scope 1
Emissions
Burning of
liquid fuels
Moderate
-
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International High Definite High
Increasing
efficiency is
essential,
reducing vehicle
idle times.
Carbon offset
must be
implemented.
Moderate
-
Long
Term >
5 years
National/International High Definite High
2
Scope 1
Emissions
Fugitive
emissions Minor -
Long
Term >
5 years
National/
International High Definite High
Measure fugitive
emissions,
determine areas
that can be
mitigated or
isolated and
improved.
Prevent and
monitor for
spontaneous
combustion.
Minor -
Long
Term >
5 years
National/International High Possible High
3
Scope 2
Emissions
Electricity
derived
emissions
Moderate
-
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International High Definite High
Improve energy
efficiency,
introduce
renewable energy
to reduce
reliance on Eskom
electricity.
Minor -
Long
Term >
5 years
National/International High Possible High
4
Scope 3
Emissions
Ancillary
emissions
Moderate
-
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International High Definite High
Encourage car
pooling,
Investigate
offsetting for
company travel.
Minor -
Long
Term >
5 years
National/International High Possible High
31
During the operations phase, blasting and vehicle operations fracture the coal
so releasing fugitive emissions in the form of N2O, CH4 and CO2. Additionally, the burning of the coal on the mine as a result of spontaneous combustion will
release additional CO2e emissions. Climate change impacts remain High even after mitigation during the operational phase. However, the impacts’ significance can be reduced even if the changes after mitigation are not
reflected within the impact assessment table due to its coarse nature. Again the high nature of the impact is largely related to the international nature of
CO2e emissions and that again the impact is cumulative. If anthropogenic climate change was not taking place that addition of a single coal mine to the
biosphere would be insignificant. However, due to the rising levels of CO2e from multiple industrial, agricultural, mining and power generation activities
the effect and impact of additional GHG emissions must be considered carefully.
The timelime of the mining activity further raises the significance scoring
making this phase of the project the most severe from an emissions perspective.
6.3.1. Mitigation
Very little can be done directly to mitigate against the scale of the GHG emissions produced by mining impacts. Examining and increasing efficiency
within this phase is crucial to reduce wastage and unnecessary fuel consumption. Efficient sorting and separation of coal will reduce waste and
allow supply to be met without unnecessarily directing usable coal to mine dumps where atmospheric contact and oxidation will allow for the escape of
GHGs. Carbon offsets need to be considered. These can be combined with the flora and faunal recommendations to ensure that habitat is preserved for displaced animals while carbon is naturally taken up by the landscapes
vegetation. Offsets must remain in effect long after the mine has closed to have any chance of balancing the surplus carbon emissions. Implimenting
onsite renewable energy production will reduce the emissions resulting from the purchase of electricity, which in South Africa is predominantly derived
from fossil fuels.
32
Spontaneous combustion must be monitored for and techniques implemented
to minimise, isolate and extinguish the burning material.
Concurrent best practice rehabilitation and vegetation monitoring needs to be
implimented to allow for the restoration of some the landscapes carbon sink functionality within the mining right area.
6.4. Decommissioning Phase
33
Table 5:Closure and decommissioning phase climate change impacts
No.
Activity Impact
Description
Before mitigation Mitigation
measures /
Recommendations
After mitigation
Magnitude Duration Spatial Scale Consequence Probability Significance Magnitude Duration Spatial Scale Consequence Probability Significance
1
Scope 1
Emissions
Burning of
liquid fuels
Minor - Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International
Medium Definite Medium Conduct
concurrent
rehabilitation to
reduce the
burden during
closure. Increase
efficiency. Use
best practise
rehabilitation to
improve the
carbon storage
potential of the
disused mine site.
Correct topsoil
management will
enable good year
round vegetation
cover. Design the
closure of the site
as an offset,
return the land to
as close to
natural as
possible.
Minor -
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International Medium Possible Medium
2
Scope 1
Emissions
Fugitive
emissions
Minor - Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
Site or Local Low Definite Medium Correct
rehabilitation of
discard dumps is
essential to
reduce oxidation
of carboniferous
material. Use
best practise
rehabilitation to
improve the
carbon storage
potential of the
disused mine site.
Minor +
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
Site or Local Low Possible Low
34
Correct topsoil
management will
enable good year
round vegetation
cover.
3
Scope 2
Emissions
Electricity
derived
emissions
Minor - Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International
Medium Definite Medium Invest in solar PV.
increases in
efficiency and
battery
technology will
likely allow for
the off-grid
functioning of
rehabilitation
activities. Use
best practise
rehabilitation to
improve the
carbon storage
potential of the
disused mine site.
Correct topsoil
management will
enable good year
round vegetation
cover.
Moderate
+
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
Site or Local Medium Possible Medium
4
Scope 3
Emissions
Ancillary
emissions
Minor - Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
National/
International
Medium Definite Medium Use best practise
rehabilitation to
improve the
carbon storage
potential of the
disused mine site.
Correct topsoil
management will
enable good year
round vegetation
cover.
Moderate
+
Medium
Term >
18
months
< 5
years
Site or Local Medium Possible Medium
35
During the decommissioning phase, mine dumps containing carboniferous
material will continue to oxidise and release GHGs over a long period of time. This can be avoided, or minimized (see mitigation measures below). Often,
heavy machinery is involved in removing infrastructure and landscaping.
In this phase of the project it is possible to reverse some of the carbon
emissions that resulted from the mining activites.
Medium and low scope 1 emission impacts can be lowered and even produce positive outcomes if the prescribed mitigation measures are implimented. The
burning of fossil fuels will remain a medium significance impact, however the fugitive emissions can be securely locked away under properly rehabilitated
discard dumps.
Low and medium scope 2 and 3 emissions can become medium significance
positives effect within the decommisioning and closure phase. This is due to the reduced nature of these emissions at this stage of the project. It should be
possible on the land surface provided to negate these impacts and sequester additional atmospheric CO2.
6.4.1. Mitigation
Infrastructure ideally should not be removed, rather, where possible it should be repurposed. Designing the mine with an eye to closure and possible land use
after closure can aid in reducing emissions. The use of mine dumps and other areas that cannot be fully rehabilitated should be considered for use as solar
generation sites. The decomissioned mining area should be incorporated into the already offset areas from the operations phase.
The construction of mine dumps is crucial in sealing away carboniferous
material from the oxygen rich atmosphere. Isolating this material within a low oxygen environment will greatly reduce the risk of fugitive emissions and the vegetation of the dumps will begin to sequester atmospheric CO2.
Rehabilitation monitoring and maintenance will allow for revegetation and therefore carbon dioxide uptake to be reinstated, though likely to a lower
degree than would be possible in the natural landscape.
36
Voids must be backfilled and rehabilitated to prevent exposing the coal seam
in the sidewalls, and provide as much usable land area for revegetation.
7. Recommendations and mitigation measures
7.1. Carbon footprinting
Typically, carbon footprints are compiled retrospectively, and unless the
business plan is exceptionally detailed, are very difficult to carry out before operations have occurred. These initial carbon footprint predictions are easily
rendered inaccurate should the situation on the ground change and additional buildings be required or production proceed ahead of schedule. It is for this
reason that a detailed carbon footprint should be calculated for the proposed development to determine what its contribution to the GHG emissions of South
Africa this project may have. This detailed information shoud be collected year round and correlate with the financial statements for the year. Once a
more accurate carbon footprint is calculated it can be used to identify high emissions areas where efficiencies could be increased to reduce the emissions.
An example being the use of energy efficient airconditioning equipment, typically a heavy user of electricity in offices. This could reduce the power demand from the mining offices and result in cost savings as well as reducing
the scope two emissions from electricy consumption on site.
The accuracy of the carbon footprint relies upon the accuracy of the data used to make the calculations. Therefore, detailed inventories of proposed
construction materials, amounts of the various fuels, as well as accurate descriptions of the coal reserve present are necessary to produce a reliable
and reproducible carbon footprint. Carbon accounting and disclosure should be undertaken annually for the entire life of the project.
7.2. Biodiversity
The footprint of the mine must be reduced at every opportunity where it is possible. Reducing the disturbance of the surrounding vegetation allows for it
to perform its carbon sink function and aid in decreasing the effect of the mining emissions impact. Disturbances to wetlands must be avoided, certain
types of wetlands are very good natural carbon sinks absorbing and storing
37
atmospheric carbon it within the anoxic permanently wet root zone where it
remains for long periods of time. Burning of or reducing the efficiency of wetlands must be avoided to allow them to function as optimally as possible.
Improving wetland functionality through the rehabilitation of disturbed wetland systems may improve their carbon sink capacity and form part of the mine’s offset stratergy.
7.3. Fugitive emissions
Typically, fugitive emissions are lower in surface mines which are closer to the
atmosphere and have allowed these trapped gases to vent slowly overtime. However, in deeper seams significant amounts of methane may yet be trapped
and the release of this gas must be investigated due to its high atmospheric warming potential.
7.4. Renewable energy
Installing and making use of renewable energy on the mine premises is highly advisable and with the correct design and implementation could greatly
reduce the mine’s reliance on their power utility, reducing their carbon footprint and from scope 2 emissions. Solar panels depending on construction
and the amount of sunlight they encounter (usually dependent of the latitude they are installed in) pay back the amount of energy used to manufacture them in between 1-4 years and therefore have very low carbon profiles.
7.5. Carbon offsets
Carbon offsets can be used to balance the carbon budget of an organisation.
These offsets can be owned and managed by the company looking to make use of them but are more typically sourced in the form of carbon credits from
reputable audited carbon credit markets.
In the first instance a company takes a decision to invest in and maintain a
carbon negative activity, which can range from wetland restoration projects to large scale landscape restoration and management. These environments take
up more CO2 than they produce and the company can claim those emission credits to reduce/offset its own emissions. These projects need to be audited
by independent specialists to gauge the amount of carbon they are capable of
38
sequestering and therefore the amount of carbon credit they can make
available to mitigate the organisational emissions. If these offsets are large enough additional credits can be sold on to other organisations looking to
reduce their carbon budget. The production of additional credits has given rise to a carbon credit markets.
It is from these markets that carbon credits can be sourced. In this category, the organisation is paying for someone else’s carbon negative balance sheet.
7.6. Project alternatives
If it is crucial that power be supplied in the Lephelale area renewable energy could be deployed to meet this demand. Limpopo Province receives a high
allowance of insolation (Figure 6), and areas of land similar in size to the proposed mining area have been used to produce clean far less carbon
intensive energy.
39
Figure 6: Annual sum of insolation available for solar PV energy production ©
SolarGIS 2014
For example, in Banaskantha, India, a 750MW solar facility is being constructed
on 1500 Ha of land (Dabhi 2016), where the current mining footprint here is just under 1900 Ha. Solar power is increasingly popular in Africa and Zambia,
for example, began construction of a 600 MW solar power station last year in an effort to diversify its power supply and supplement its national grid (Africa News Agency 2016). South Africa is beginning to enter into more renewable
energy arrangements to diversify the grid and reduce CO2e emissions. Recently the Solar Capital De Aar 3 Solar PV project, a small facility approximately 100
40
Ha intended to generate 75 MW and power 49 500 homes, was opened. (South
African Government 2016; Frankson 2016).
To discourage carbon intense industry and energy inefficiencies a carbon tax
was proposed by the South African Treasury in 2015. Treasury has been developing the model but has yet to implement it, even though it was due to
begin in January of 2017 (The Carbon Report 2015). Recent analysis points to the tax being able to reduce South Africa’s emissions by up to 14.5% while
impacting on the economy to a small degree by between 0.05 to 0.15% (World Bank Group 2016).
8. Conclusion
The proposed colliery is a highly carbon intensive activity proposed to take
place in a landscape that is largely natural and probably functioning as a carbon sink. During the climate change assessment, it was determined that
scope 1 emissions are likely to be the largest component of the proposed mine due to the large amounts of liquid fossil fuels required to power the mining
equipment. Additionally, the risk of unearthing fugitive emissions of methane trapped within the coal seam would add to the scope 1 emissions for the project. Scope 2 emissions were also substantial however, confidence in the
amount of electricity required is limited. The current projections over the life of mine scope 2 emissions alone would account for 481 068.50 tons of CO2e
emissions. This number could rise or fall if the source of the electricity is altered.
The operational phase of the project is where the greatest amount of GHG
emissions will be released, due to the timeframes involved. The mine is planned to operate for over 35 years. During this phase the majority of the
earth removal will take place, meaning that the greatest amount of liquid fossil fuels as well as electricity will be consumed. In the decommissioning
phase some of the carbon emissions could be recouped. Good rehabilitation practises can give rise to positive effects when fugitive emission sources are sealed away within the waste and discard dumps, which are vegetated
allowing for atmospheric CO2 uptake. This CO2 uptake is likely to be at a reduced rate compared to the current land use. There are no national
41
legislative impediments to the mine proceeding. Certainly, much of South
Africa is powered by coal from these mines. However, South Africa has signed international agreements to curb its GHG emissions. The production of
additional carbon intensive coal would be in contradiction to these agreements.
If the government intends to commit to its international agreements it will need to begin reducing its reliance on coal derived electricity. This may place
the future of the mine at risk as increasing legislative restrictions and taxes may be levied.
42
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