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APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015

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ResultsToolsOverviewImpacts 2

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OVERVIEW 3

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4 15 NEW MODELS 375 Residential Non-Residential Multi-Sector

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APPLIANCE STANDARDS 1 million homes

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45 STANDARDS 1,507 aMW (2010-2034) 6

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IMPACTS 7

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2008 External Power Supplies Commercial Unit Heaters 2009 Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Walk-in Coolers and Freezers 2010 Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Package AC and HP including Single Package Vertical Units 2011 2012 Dehumidifiers Incandescent Reflector Lamps General Service Fluorescent Lamps Kitchen Ranges & Ovens Commercial Packaged Boilers Beverage Vending Machines General Service Incandescent Lamps Commercial Refrigeration Equipment WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?

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9 2015 Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Water Heaters Small Electric Motors 2016 Electric Motors Distribution Transformers External Power Supplies Microwave Ovens 2017 Walk-in Coolers & Freezers Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures 2018 Ice Makers 2013 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 2014 Refrigerators & Freezers Room AC 2019 Furnace Fans

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STANDARDS & PROGRAMS INTERACT 10 DOE Standards Emerging Tech Support Market Pull and Demand Creation

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DIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 11 New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Before Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up

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INDIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 12 New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Before New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up

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PRODUCT MIX IMPACTS 13 $1,600 $800

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STRATEGY 1: FILL IN GAPS 14 Wattage Range

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STRATEGY 2: GO BEYOND % Improvement Over 2014 Market Baseline Standard-size vented clothes dryers 3% Current Standards 32% Maximum feasible efficiency 15

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TOOLS 16

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MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Standardized TemplatesFamiliarity 17

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MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Centralized ModelsCohesion 18

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MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES GuidesUsability 19

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SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 20 Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings

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SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 21 Annual kWh Per Unit Model Pre-Case Shipment UEC Model Post-Case Shipment UEC

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SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 22 Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings

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FLOW 23 STOCK

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24 INSTALLED STOCK IN 2006INSTALLED STOCK IN 2007INSTALLED STOCK IN 2008INSTALLED STOCK IN 2009INSTALLED STOCK IN 2010

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STOCK TURNOVER MODEL OVERVIEW 25 Shipments Stock Lifetime Saturation Housing Stock or Commercial Floor Space

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Shipments Incremental Savings SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 26 Change in Unit Energy Consumption

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27 Weighted Average UECs Usage Statistics Efficiency Distributions Product Class Distributions

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ACCUMULATED REPLACEMENTS IN INSTALLED STOCK 28

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INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM REPLACEMENTS DURING STOCK TURNOVER 29

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NEW CONSTRUCTION SHIPMENTS 30

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INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM NEW SHIPMENTS 31

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INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FOLLOWING STANDARDS 32

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RESULTS 33

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SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 34 End UseResidentialNon-Residential Analysis CycleRound 1Round 2Round 1Round 2 Refrigeration Water Heaters HVAC Lighting EPS/BC Home Appliances Motors Transformers Miscellaneous

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Heat Pumps Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters 8% 5% 28% 54% 2015

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Electric Furnace Fans Refrigerators Water Heaters 12% 5% 14% 24% 45% 2020

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters Electric Furnace Fans 5% 13% 18% 51% 2034

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85% Distribution Transformers 0% 2% 6% 7% Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Electric Motors Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Commercial Washer 2015

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Ref. Equipments Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 5% 2% 15% 20% 58% 2020

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Washer Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 1% 3% 20% 75% 2034

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers 35% 65% 2015

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 36% 48% 16% 2020

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Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 17% 31% 52% 2034

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CONTACT Carrie Cobb clcobb@bpa.gov 503.230.4985 Ben Barrington bbarrington@cadeogroup.com 781.354.7070 Angie Lee Angie.Lee@navigant.com 415.356.7145 44