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KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y W A S B O R NS U S T A I N A B I L I T Y W A S B O R N I N 1 9 8 7I N 1 9 8 7
•• B R U N D T L A N D C O M M I S S I O NB R U N D T L A N D C O M M I S S I O N
( 3 s p h e r e s )( 3 s p h e r e s )
•• T R I P L E B O T T O M L I N ET R I P L E B O T T O M L I N E (( J o h n J o h n E l k i n g t o n )E l k i n g t o n )
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
WHAT A DIFFERENCE TWO DECADES MAKES!WHAT A DIFFERENCE TWO DECADES MAKES!
1 91 9 8 98 9
2 02 0 11 11
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
SS U S T A I N A B I L I T YU S T A I N A B I L I T Y . . .. . . B Y T H E N U M B E R SB Y T H E N U M B E R S
O n eO n e v i s i o n v i s i o n emergent propertyemergent property
T w oT w o p a t h s p a t h s mitigate &mitigate & adapt adapt
T h r e eT h r e e s p h e r e s s p h e r e s economy/community/ecologyeconomy/community/ecology
F o u rF o u r c o n d i t i o n s c o n d i t i o n s natural stepsnatural steps
F i v eF i v e t h e m e s t h e m e s consensus missionconsensus mission
S i xS i x c h a l l e n g e s c h a l l e n g e s footprint reductionfootprint reduction
S e v e nS e v e n g e n e r a t i o n s g e n e r a t i o n s selfself -- reinforcing systemsreinforcing systems
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
ONE V I S ION ONE V I S ION P r e f e r r e d D e f i n i t i o nP r e f e r r e d D e f i n i t i o n
““ Sus t a i nab i l i t ySus t a i nab i l i t y i s t he i s t he poss i b i l i t ypos s i b i l i t y t h a t human and o the r l i f et ha t human and o the r l i f e
w i l l f l ou r i s h on t he p l ane t f o r eve r . ”w i l l f l ou r i s h on t he p l ane t f o r eve r . ”
“ I t i s an “ I t i s an emergen temergen t p rope r t y p rope r t y wh i chwh i ch on l on l y appea r s when t he who le s y s t emy appea r s when t he who le s y s t em
i s f unc t i on i ng p rope r l y . ”i s f unc t i on i ng p rope r l y . ”
“UnUn -- su s t a i nab i l i t ysu s t a i nab i l i t y is an unintended consequence of our ‘sy s t em b l i ndnes ssy s t em b l i ndnes s ’.
• We fail to understand the systems at play in the world. • We rely on technological quick fixes that ignore underlying
causes.”
John R. Ehrenfeld author of “sustainability by design”
interviewed in MIT Sloan review, july 14, 2009 Executive Director of the International Society for Industrial Ecology;
former Director of the MIT Program on Technology, Business, and Environment.
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
FOURFOUR CONDIT IONS CONDIT IONS From The Natural StepTM
In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing:
1: Concentrations of substances extracted from the earth's crust. 2: Concentrations of substances produced by society. 3: Degradation by physical means.
AND...
people are not subject to conditions that systematically:
4: Undermine their capacity to meet their needs.
These four basic principles for sustainability are deeply rooted in science
and in systems thinking.
And it also follows that these four basic principles are something that everyone can agree about.
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
T W O P A T H ST W O P A T H S
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
F I V E T H E M E SF I V E T H E M E S
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
S E V E N G E N E R A T I O N SS E V E N G E N E R A T I O N S
Se l fSe l f -- Re i n fo r c i ng Sy s t emsRe in fo r c i ng Sy s t ems
Cycles turning within cycles…the secret of sustainability
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
T H R E E S P H E R E ST H R E E S P H E R E S
S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y T H I N K I N GS U S T A I N A B I L I T Y T H I N K I N G
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
S I X C H A L L E N G E SS I X C H A L L E N G E S Amer i c a ’ s E co log i c a l Foo tp r i n tAmer i c a ’ s E co log i c a l Foo tp r i n t
Share of total U.S. Ecological Footprint by category, derived from Cool Climate Calculator.
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
O T H E RO T H E R C O N S I D E R A T I O N S . . .C O N S I D E R A T I O N S . . .
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
F O U R F O U R P O S S I B I L I T I E SP O S S I B I L I T I E S
EARLY ACTION ON GLOBAL WARMING? (Illustrating the Precautionary Principle)
The precautionary principle, crudely summarized, states that where the potential impact is significant and we have insufficient confidence to choose between two future scenarios, prudence demands that we plan for the more pessimistic.
Source: Greg Craven, "What's the Worst That Could Happen? A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate", gregcraven.com
ACT NOW?
VERDICT?
ACT NOW?
VERDICT?
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
F O U R D I M E N S I O N SF O U R D I M E N S I O N S INTEGRAL FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Adapted from The Four Worlds of Sustainability, by Barrett Brown
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
S O . . .S O . . .
H O W U N S U S T A I N A B L EH O W U N S U S T A I N A B L E A R E W E ?A R E W E ?
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
T H E “ H O C K E Y S T I C K S ”T H E “ H O C K E Y S T I C K S ” ON EXPONENTIALITY & TIPPING POINTS
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
W H A T H A P P E N E D W H A T H A P P E N E D T O E R O I ?T O E R O I ?
Energy-Return-On-Investment
Source: Crash Course, www.chrismartenson.com
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
P E A K O I L ?P E A K O I L ?
US oil supply is likely to begin its terminal decline sometime between 2011 and 2020, from a peak of 7.5 to 7.7 billion barrels annually, at an average annual rate of between 2% and 3%. By 2030. Our
available supply of oil will probably range between 4.2 and 6.3 billion barrels. Source: The Oil Drum, “On American Sustainability - Anatomy of Societal Collapse
70% 70%
DECL INEDECL INE
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
U S E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S ?U S E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S ?
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Emissions REDUCTIONS Quickly? Scenarios from the climate interactive model
climateinteractive.org
* Only 10-year delay Must do in 10 years
Business-As-Usual Modest Decrease 95% Reduction
* * 2 degree threshhold
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Source: Post-Carbon Institute, Daniel Lerch presentation, 8 May 2009 • Gaining Ground Summit, Calgary
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
CC L A S S W A R F A R E ?L A S S W A R F A R E ?
"The money derived from productivity improvements over the last decades was shunted to capital markets under the ideological assumption (seen in Greenspan's thinking) that these markets would make better investments in future prosperity than individuals. That assumption has been proven false. The money was gambled away.”
John Robb in Global Guerillas blog on "Parasitic Predation" Mar 09
Chart Source: Damon Silvers, "How a Low Wage Economy with Weak Labor Laws Brought Us the Mortgage Credit Crisis", Feller Memorial Labor Law Lecture, April 2, 2008, UC Berkeley
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
I M P E N D I N G C R I S E S ?I M P E N D I N G C R I S E S ?
Brent Crude Oil Spot $/barrel
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
CC A S C A D I N G A S C A D I N G C A T A S T R O P H E S ?C A T A S T R O P H E S ?
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
F I N A L T H O U G H T S . . . F I N A L T H O U G H T S . . .
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
T O W A R D S U S T A I N A B I L I T YT O W A R D S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
Dominant model infinite competitive growth
MAXIMUM ENTROPY
bigger fish swallowing the smaller
laying waste to everything in its path
like a hurricane
no closed cycle to hold resources within or to build up stable organized structures
Sustainable model life cycle of the organism
ZERO ENTROPY
self-similar fractal structure cycles turning within cycles
the secret of sustainability
dynamically closed cycle enables stable organized structures
to build up and in a balanced way
from “Dream Farm” by physicist Mae-Wan Ho
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
THE SUSTA INAB IL I TY IMPERAT IVETHE SUSTA INAB IL I TY IMPERAT IVE
“In designing pathways for the future, we need to make them:
•• A T S C A L EA T S C A L E Interesting new tech may be hard to bring to scale
•• I N T I M EI N T I M E Things that are very far out, will be helpful far out, but right now we need some good things
•• F O R A L LF O R A L L Between the rich and poor, an equilibrium, particularly in terms of the environment
David Hunter Marks David Hunter Marks
MIT Professor Coordinator of the Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS)
At the Annual AGS Conference, Feb ‘08
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net
SUSTA INAB IL I TY SUSTA INAB IL I TY I S NOT WHAT WE TH INK ,I S NOT WHAT WE TH INK , I T ’ S HOWIT ’ S HOW
KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net