Applies to NWS Buffalo Area of Responsibility Only · 11/18/2014 · Daytime Highs ranging from...

National Weather Service - Buffalo NY – www.weather.gov/buf

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Lake Effect Weather Briefing #2 Tuesday-Thursday – November 18-20

First Significant Lake Effect Snows

Applies to NWS Buffalo Area of Responsibility Only

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National Weather Service - Buffalo NY http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Buffalo.gov

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Overview

2

Today through Wednesday Lake Effect Snow

Lake snows continue off both Lakes Erie and Ontario Storm totals:

Off Lake Erie – highest amounts 5 to 6 feet Off Lake Ontario -- highest amounts 4 to 5 feet

Snowfall rates of 4 to 5 inches off Erie today; 1 to 3 inches per hour off Ontario Winds

Winds increasing during the afternoon to 20 to 30 with gusts to 45 mph Visibilities will be reduced in blowing/drifting snow Winds within the heart of the snowbands not as strong

Temperatures Daytime Highs ranging from the upper teens away from the lakes to the upper 20s

along the lake shores Nighttime temperatures Tonight in the teens away from the lakes to the low 20s along

the lake shores Wind Chills

In the single digits

11/18/2014







Weather Synopsis – Today

3

Lake effect snows will remain nearly steady state into early afternoon

The shift south slowly begins in the afternoon

Off Lake Erie... Intense snowfall rates of 4 to 5 inches an hour ongoing will slowly subside to 2 to 3 inches per hour

Off Lake Ontario...snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches ongoing will intensify during the afternoon

Westerly winds increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph Blowing and drifting snow will be an issue (especially

north/south routes) Visibilities significantly reduced 11/18/2014

Tuesday Morning’s (7AM)

Forecast Surface Map




Additional Snowfall Forecast – Today

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Weather Synopsis – Tonight

5

Lake effect continues however winds shift the snows south Off Lake Erie: to southern Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, and

Northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties Off Lake Ontario: to southern Jefferson and Lewis and Northern

Oswego counties

Winds diminish overnight Blowing drifting snow still an issue

Temperatures – Bitter cold Cold air continues to build across the region Temperatures:

In the teens away from the lakes to the low 20s along the lake shores

Wind Chills will fall into the single digits in most areas but down into the minus single digits across the western southern tier

11/18/2014

Tonight’s (1AM) Forecast Surface Map




Additional Snowfall Forecast – Tonight

6

11/18/2014




Weather Synopsis – Wednesday

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Lake effect continues however winds back to southwest then south as the next low pressure system approaches

Off Lake Erie: Lake effect over Northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus and

southern Erie, Wyoming and Livingston counties will shift north Snows will be weakening as the lift north across northern

Erie/Genesee and then Niagara/Orleans counties

Off Lake Ontario: Lake effect snow over southern Jefferson and Lewis and

Northern Oswego counties will shift north Snows will be weakening as they lift north across northern Jefferson

and Lewis Counties and the St. Lawrence River

Clipper brings a general very light snow to the entire

region Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s

11/18/2014

Wednesday Morning’s (7AM) Forecast Surface Map




Additional Snowfall Forecast – Wednesday

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Summary – Snow Total – Western NY

9

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http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml







Summary – Snow Total – Northern NY

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Round TWO: Wednesday Night - Friday

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Lake Effect Snow WATCH Late Wednesday Night Through Friday Morning

Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego counties Thursday Morning through Friday Morning

Chautauqua Cattaraugus Counties

Off Erie: Lake effect snows develop across the northern Niagara Frontier and

snows drift slowly south on Thursday and settle over the western southern tier Thursday Night and Friday morning

Off Ontario: Lake effect snows develop over the St. Lawrence River and northern

Jefferson counties then move slowly south reaching the Tug Hill by Thursday Night and move further south across Oswego county by Friday Morning

11/18/2014




Additional Snowfall Forecast – Wednesday Night

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Additional Snowfall Forecast – Thursday Additional snowfall expected Thursday Night/Early Friday (further south)

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HEADS UP....

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Monday/Tuesday Big warm-up coming (forecast highs in the 50s on Monday) with

rain Flooding concerns in areas of maximum lake effect snow

11/18/2014







General Reminders

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Emergency managers, government partners and media can log onto to NWSChat Live (http://nwschat.weather.gov/) to get critical warning decision expertise from the forecasters and exchange real-time information

The latest Area Forecast Discussion can be found at: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AF

D&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter! https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Buffalo.gov @NWSBUFFALO or #BUFWX

11/18/2014


https://nwschat.weather.gov/live

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Applies to NWS Buffalo Area of Responsibility Only · 11/18/2014 · Daytime Highs ranging from...

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